2023 Challenges

What better way to celebrate New Year's Eve than to look ahead to the new year.  That's exactly what Consuelo Mack did for this week's edition of WealthTrack.  Happy New Year everyone!  

Wall St ends 2022 with biggest annual drop since 2008

For the final trading day of the year, all the indexes way down, the Dow almost 400 points, then suddenly a big buying surge in the final hour to close at about break-even, except the Dow which was down 73.  No major triggers today, just a continuing anxiety over various factors including rate hikes, recession fears, inflation, supply chain, the war and China COVID.  The year’s report card is as follows: S&P down 19.4%, Nasdaq 33.1%, Dow 8.9%, for the biggest declines since the 2008 financial crisis, the primary trigger for the year being a rout in growth due to rate hikes. 

Wall St ends firmer, growth stocks lead in thin trading

Just as yesterday was a straight down day on continuing pessimism, today was a straight up day on some newfound optimism with new data suggesting again that the rate hikes might be working in the fight against inflation. Part of that was an increase in unemployment benefits even if the overall labor market continues to be tight. The market was taking a break from the overwhelming pressure to sell.  Generally speaking, for the year the S&P is down 19.3%, the Nasdaq 33%, and the tech, consumer, and communication sectors down 29-40%.  The Dow with its high-dividend stocks has been the market’s refuge, down only 8.5 percent. For the short holiday week, volume remains well below average at just 8.78 billion. 

U.S. stocks drop on recession fears, Nasdaq closes at new bear market low

With two trading days left in the year the indexes all took another sharp drop straight down all day with no new triggers, just more of the same.  A combo of negative and mixed data all impeded the traditional Santa Claus rally which did not show up this year. Neither the traditional strong December nor the traditional strong rally the week after Christmas have happened, sending investors to the exits. The rising COVID cases in China and that potential for hurting industries is also not helping. The S&P is down 20%, the Nasdaq more severely, its lowest close since the bear market began a year ago. Volume remains light at 8.6 billion. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq close lower, weighed by growth stocks

Growth and tech took a hit today with both the S&P and Nasdaq down but the Dow (value) benefitted being down about 130 in the morning and up about 200 by noon but then settling down to close up 37.  Rising Treasury yields pressured the growth stocks with everyone fleeing to the safety of value with industrials, utilities and energy outperforming, something we’ve seen all year.  An important lesson passed on by today’s expert: “It’s important to remember that there are other groups that can take up the baton when the high-flyers come back to earth.” In other words – diversify!  

Top Quality Income Performance

To complete the theme of winning stock selections for the close of this holiday weekend, here is the latest interview from WealthTrack with the manager of the JP Morgan Equity Income Fund as we all seek ways to squeeze more cash out of our investments.  Have a good week now that's it's finally warming up.  

10 Best Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy for 2023, 9 of the Best Cheap Stocks to Buy Under $10

A double bonus today for your Christmas gift -- the best blue chips and the best cheapies.  Hope everyone had a great holiday.  I had to cancel my plans because of the roads and almost everyone I know canceled their plans due to either the roads or illness in the family. My friends and I are now planning a double celebration New Year's Eve. The big blessing is that at least we're not in Ukraine.  

AAII Investor Update: Changes to Retirement Savings In Omnibus Bill

Here's a little holiday gift courtesy of this week's edition of the AAII that many of us might useful -- how the new omnibus bill impact our retirement savings. Have a blessed holiday, stay warm, and travel safe.  

Wall St ends higher, Treasury yields rise after data flurry

Just as yesterday ended with all the indexes way in the red but rebounding, this morning all remained briefly in the red before making their way into positive territory for the rest of the session, the Dow closing up 176.  But my oh my, how fickle is this market. Wednesday saw a big rally due to recession optimism which changed to a big sell off Thursday over recession pessimism. Today there was optimism again after a flurry of reports showed a softening economy pointing to the hikes doing their intended – bringing down inflation.

Wall Street tumbles on rate, recession worries, bleak chipmaker outlook

All the indexes dropping big time all day, the Dow losing nearly 1,000 points by 1:30 pm but then recovered more than half of those losses to close down about 350.  The other indexes followed a similar suit.  Just as yesterday optimism was triggered by the sentiment that recession was already priced into the market, today's pessimism was triggered by sentiment that recession was not priced in, that it was likely going to be bad and likely going to be global. Much of this newfound pessimism came from positive reports that Q3 GDP was higher than the previous estimate, that unemployment was lower than the prior estimate and that tech was underperforming.  

Wall Street ends up with help from Nike, FedEx and consumer sentiment

Fears of recession abated a bit today as consumer confidence hit an 8-month high and inflation retreated with the 12-month forecast falling to 6.7%, its lowest in 15 months. The combo of slumping home sales and resilient corporate earnings is proving a big positive that triggered the broad rally. The declining home sales attributed to higher mortgage rates also fueled new hopes that the Fed might ease up.  The best news as stated by today’s expert: “We still have some headwinds ahead but maybe we don’t have to price in a recession twice. So far what we’ve seen this year has already priced in a mild recession.”  Volume was below average at 9.8 billion. 

Wall St closes slightly higher after four-day sell off

It was another volatile day between red and black with the Dow down about a hundred points in the early morning and up some 230 points by 2 pm to close up 92 points. The trigger this time was Japan tweaking its interest rates which in turn impacted U.S. Treasury yields pushing the 10 year note to 3.7%, a 3 week high.  Other pressures included the same old-same old fears of recession and a new fear of weak holiday sales with now the “retailers are having to do massive sales” with consumer preferences shifting to services rather than goods. As today’s expert put it, “People have gotten their heads handed to them all year and they’re not confident enough to want to step in.”  Home building is at a 2-1/2 year low and, as has been expected for some time, the S&P is on track for its biggest annual decline since 2008.  Volume was below the 4-week average at 10.5 billion. 

Wall Street falls fourth straight day as recession worries nag

After a brief hundred-point early morning rally, the Dow retreated steadily for the rest of the day, reaching a low over 400 down around 3 pm before a final hour rally that recovered over half of the day’s losses to close down 162.  The other indexes spent the entire day in retreat.  It’s a trend that started last Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell announced the expected rate hikes but the market was unhappy that the hikes are continuing despite the weakening economy. 

15 Best Dividend Stocks to Buy for 2023

With the market being down, it's appropriate to get the latest on the best dividend stocks as per this week's most recent edition of U.S. News Invested. Hope everyone had a very nice weekend.  

Future Market Pain

Building on the last few days of panic selling with the market consensus now shifting, rightly or wrongly, toward recession -- this week's WealthTrack follows this topic with a discussion of the pain the future may or may not bring to investors.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Wall Street ends lower for third straight day as recession worries rise

All the indexes took another big dive today, the Dow down some 350 points by 1 pm to then slowly recover to a 281 point loss by close.  It was the third down day in a row as the skeptics were firmly in charge with sentiment growing stronger that we are headed for recession triggered by today’s comments from various Fed officials that more tightening was on the way for 2023.  This is the third day of panic selling despite the fact that the Fed has done nothing that was not expected.  The market had hoped for just two more small hikes early next year and that’s what the Fed said would likely happen. 

Wall Street slumps as Fed heightens recession fears

The day after the Fed announcement that rate hikes would continue since recession was still not under control, and even though such hikes were in line with expectations, the sell off that started after yesterday’s announcement turned into full scale panic today over fears of recession with all the indexes plunging right out the gate and all day long.  The Dow closed down 764, its biggest one-day % drop since September 13^th, the S&P and Nasdaq’s biggest drop since November 2.  

Wall Street ends lower after latest Fed rate hike

The Dow opened in the black right out the gate and continued rising some 200 points until 2 pm when suddenly it went crashing down some 700 points but then recovered to just a 142 point loss by close.  The same happened to all the indexes.  It was at 2 pm that Fed Chair Powell announced the ½ point rate hike and though that’s what the market wanted – and Powell also projected two more hikes next year – and that’s also what the market had wanted as of yesterday, the fact that he did not explicitly state that hikes would end and instead stuck to the program in stating inflation was not yet whipped so it was too soon to talk about rate cuts, sent the market into a tizzy.  

Wall St rises after CPI data but Fed concerns persist

Dow up over 700 points right out the gate, but immediately started a steady decline to dip 100 in the red by 1 pm, then steadily rose to a hundred point gain by close. The initial boom resulted from the CPI report which, though not reaching the hoped-for “6-handle,” nonetheless came in favorably lower than expectations and, at 7.1% (vs 7.3%), came awfully close to the 6% range. But it didn’t last long before investors decided that the excitement was premature and could be easily negated by Wednesday’s rate hike announcement so the selling started again.  

Wall St rallies with inflation, Fed on tap

It was another day straight up for all the indexes, all based on bets that inflation data and the December Fed rate hike coming this week will be good news.  In fact, the market is really betting on the so-called “6-handle,” meaning that Tuesday’s CPI, expected to be an improvement at 7.3% will instead dip into the 6% range.  Also providing a boost to the markets today was Microsoft buying 4% of the London Stock Exchange, which in most quarters is considered a majority stake. Fears remain that the rate hikes will push the economy into recession. The S&P is still down 16% for the year, though quite an improvement on June, is still well on its way for the first loss in four years, and on its way to the first ever failure to break-even by year-end after a bad first half.  Volume was a little below average at 10.35 billion. 

Alternative Investments When Stocks Are Down

As a finale to your weekend pleasures, I give you Mr. Barry Burns and Top Dog Trading. I've actually been on his email list for quite a long while (along with quite a few others) and most of these guys are not to be taken seriously and I haven't made up my mind about Mr. Top Dog yet.  But the title of this new video sent this morning struck me as intriguing and of possible interest to everyone.  It's only about 15 minutes and I haven't even watched it yet but any tips on exploring alternatives in a down market are worth 15 minutes.  Just don't be surprised if it turns out he's just selling another program for beating the market.  Almost all these videos and mailings end that way.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

10 Best Low-Cost Index Funds to Buy

We all love index funds and we especially love low cost.  Here is the latest list from U.S. News Invested.  Hope everyone is enjoying their weekend.  

Wall Street ends lower as investors digest economic data

The indexes spent almost the entire day firmly in the red, the Dow down some 100 points most of the afternoon, then suddenly diving another 200 in the final half hour to close down 305. There was no explanation for the sudden drop at close, which happened with all three indexes, and further mystery over the day’s sell off given that reports showed inflation coming down and consumer sentiment improving with even inflation expectations now at a 15 month low. Another odd occurrence was futures traders today putting the ½ point rate hike for December at only 77% versus money market traders on Tuesday putting it at 91 percent. Consumer price reports will be out Tuesday. Volume was below average at 9.9 billion. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq snap losing streaks after jobless claims rise

All the indexes were solidly in the black all day with the Dow even up some 300 points in the morning before losing almost all of it in the afternoon until a very late surge boosted it to close up 183.  Just as the prior days’ losses were due to too good reports that spurred fears again of continuing rate hikes, today’s bad report showing an increase in jobless claims gave more assurance that the hikes may be easing after all.  The main thrust of sentiment seems to be that the market is struggling to adjust to what has for quite some time been a stimulus-based economy to what is now quickly evolving into a fundamentals-based economy, which is where it needs to be.  Friday brings the much-awaited reports on PPI and consumer sentiment.  Volume was below average at 10 billion. 

S&P, Nasdaq extend losing streaks amid rising recession worries

It was another volatile seesaw day with the Dow going back and forth between black and red in a 300-point range at least four times during the session to finally close even.  The Nasdaq and S&P were equally volatile but spent the session mostly in the red.  And even though the consensus for a ½ point rate hike this month has risen again, investors are still grappling with all the doom and gloom yesterday from the top financial executives.  The VIX reached about 22.7 today, its highest in three weeks. The S&P is looking like it’s going to snap a three year winning streak, which may bring the even larger consequence of breaking an historic precedent of recovering completely by year-end after a losing first half.  Volume was a little below average at 10.3 billion. 

S&P posts 4th straight decline as recession talk weighs on Wall Street

It was another big shot straight down as more good news dampened previous optimism that the economy was cooling down and bolstering fears that the rate hikes have not had the desired effect on inflation and thus could likely lead to recession next year. But today’s main trigger was a whole battery of major financial CEOs from BofA to JP Morgan sharing their own dire predictions that the economy was heading for a downturn.  

Wall St slides as services data spooks investors about Fed rate hikes

It was a shot straight down for all three indexes all day long to close down sharply, the Dow a big 482 points. Good data on the health of the economy is what triggered the selloff, particularly with a strong services sector, contrary to the usual logic that would ordinarily have caused a rally but, in this case, instead triggered more concerns about inflation and more rate hikes. 

2022's 10 Best-Performing Stocks

To close out this first chilly weekend of December, here is the latest from U.S. News Invested listing the best performing stocks for 2022.  Stay warm and enjoy the week.  

Buffett's Enduring Influence

From the latest episode of WealthTrack comes another seminar on the impact Warren Buffett has had on the entire investing universe. There are lessons always to be learned here.  Hope everyone is having a good weekend.  

S&P 500 ends slightly lower after jobs report

The indexes started deeply in the red, the Dow almost 400 points and then gradually rose to close near break-even.  The main trigger was the payrolls report that came in considerably higher than forecast adding to expectations that the Fed will continue with the rate hikes until we see a reversal in wage growth. The good news is that a taper is still expected for December and that the goal on inflation and subsequent cutting of rates will be here in about a year. There also continues to be the expectation of the usual seasonal December rally.  No volume data included below but, per the CBOE, 10.4 billion shares were traded. 

Wall Street ends mixed; Salesforce selloff pressures Dow

Under normal conditions, today’s package of good news should have triggered another rally but after yesterday’s huge rally, the market instead took a breath and bad news from Salesforce brought the Dow down, losing almost 500 points in the morning but recovering to close 194 down. But the PCE rose less than expected and manufacturing shrank, all suggesting that the rate hikes are working and the economy is cooling down. The oddsmakers now put a 79% chance for a ½ point rate hike in December. The S&P is now down 14% YTD (vs 25% in October) but a few more days like yesterday and it’ll be at break-even again for the year. Yesterday volume was huge and today it was much closer to the 4-week average at 11.7 billion.