Wall St closes higher on eve of Fed decision; investors assess earnings

All three indexes started the day in the red but by 1 pm were in the black and all ended the session up as investors picked up bargains from last week’s dry spell.  The move back into positive territory seems to indicate the market believes the Fed will hold off on more hikes this year amidst a batch of mixed earnings and the uncertainty of the two wars.  But as today’s expert put a more positive spin on things, “the recent sell-off brings us back to fairly valued from over-valued levels.” This is the third consecutive monthly loss for all indexes with the Dow down 1.4%, the S&P 2.2, the Nasdaq 2.8%.  There are now 279 Q3 reports and 78% have beaten forecasts. Earnings forecast is now 4.9%, quite a jump from the 1.6 a month ago.  Volume came in at 10.6 billion.  

Wall St rallies 1%, yen gains vs dollar; talk of BOJ policy tweak

Though it was still a bit of a seesaw for tech, the Dow was a straight shot up, 511 big ones. Finally the buying reflects all the positive data that’s been ignored the last two weeks. Treasury yields fell after they announced Q4 borrowing of $76 billion less than expected. Giants Caterpillar and Apple will be bringing their Q3 reports this week as earnings season passes the halfway mark. Volume came in at 10.3 billion. 

BONDS ARE BACK

Yesterday I talked about "what" bond funds to buy now according to the latest and greatest from U.S. News Invested. Today I submit some advice about the "why" in this changing environment according to the latest and greatest from the PBS program "WealthTrack."  

7 of the Best Fidelity Bond Funds to Buy for Steady Income

Once again visiting that topic of investing for income, here are the latest picks from U.S. News Invested.  

Wall Street ends mixed at close of earnings-packed week

Probably due to good reports from Amazon and Intel, the tech heavy S&P and Nasdaq started out reasonably well but then right around 11:15 started a dramatic dive for the rest of the day. The cyclical Dow fared considerably worse with a straight-down dive from the outset, attributed to continuing fears of higher-for-longer.  As today’s expert put it, “The economy would be just fine with inflation around 3%. It’s that last mile of getting where we are today to the Fed’s [2%] target. That’s the big question.”  

Markets down as earnings roll in; investors assess economic data

Meta and IBM turning in good Q3 reports after hours yesterday did not impact sentiment in the market one bit as other Q3 reports were seen as a mixed bag and sent all three indexes straight down, the Dow almost -300 by 1:30 pm, then zooming up again until 3 pm, only to go crashing again to close way down again, the Dow closing at a -251.  So, the disappointing outnumbered the good reports and there was once again the continuing sentiment that good news is bad news.  Q3 GDP came in its strongest in two years and that only sent shivers through the market that continues to “challenge the notion that the Fed will start lowering rates in 2024.” 

S&P 500, Nasdaq end sharply lower as Alphabet disappoints, Treasury yields bounce

Tech got hit hard today with all the indexes taking a sharp plunge around just after 11:30 a.m.  Investors would have been wise to do some shorting early this morning as last night’s after-hours plunge from Google should have had everyone on alert as the mega-cap’s disappointment did indeed send the whole market spiraling downward and that, added to good economic data sending Treasury yields back towards the 5% mark, made for a bad day. With robust home sales and mortgage rates at a 23-year high, our expert sums it up.  

Wall Street surges to close higher, powered by upbeat earnings, guidance

It was another big seesaw day on all three indexes with all of them up big by 11 a.m. (the Dow almost +350), then falling to almost break-even by 1 pm, then soaring again to another high by 3 pm, the best news being that all three stayed in the black all day for a change. It was apparently around 1 pm that a slew of upbeat Q3 reports came in which lifted sentiment dramatically after two weeks of disappointments. It also brought Treasury yields nicely below the dreaded 5% mark which has so spooked investors in recent sessions. 

Wall Street ends mixed as Treasury yields ease, focus turns to earnings

All the indexes were on a roll all morning, the Dow up about a hundred points, and then come 1 pm all started a slide where they lost all their gains by close, the Dow even going into the red almost 200 points. What happened at 1 pm is not clear. The only explanation: “The market has accepted the idea that the Fed is not going to lower rates any time soon,” which of course has been a continuing theme of the slide we saw all last week.  

China Unraveling

Yesterday we talked about one topic that's been in the market news for quite some time -- rates.  Today we talk about another oft reported news item -- the threat from China as Consuelo Mack from PBS WealthTrack devoted her episode last week to this very pressing topic.  

All About Rates

Since Fed rate policy in order to tame the highest inflation we've had since the 1970s  (remember President Gerald Ford's famous dictum "WIN" (Whip Inflation Now) has been so very prevalent in the market news for such a very long time, when our friends at Heritage Capital Management did a column about it last week, I thought it a very appropriate time to put all this in perspective. Frankly the only thing that puzzles me about rate hikes is that anybody is puzzled about them at all. Did anybody really expects rates to stay near zero forever?  Anyway, food for thought as we enjoy this weekend.  

Wall Street notches weekly loss as benchmark US bond yield eases

It was a third straight day of reacting to the Fed remarks of possible more hikes and Treasury yields continuing to rise, today just barely brushing above the critical 5% mark by 1/1000%.  It was a shot straight down on all the indexes with a partial recovery between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. but then diving again even lower, both the Dow and Nasdaq with again big 3-digit losses.  The good news is that the experts are saying this is misplaced pessimism, that investors are focused too much on macro events and ignoring all the great Q3 reporting.  

Wall St ends lower on Powell remarks as benchmark Treasury yields near 5%

The slide continues with today’s remarks from Fed Chair Powell that more hikes may be needed after the market had formed such a strong consensus of no more hikes, but also mixed with an equally strong consensus of “higher for longer.” The complaint has been “The lack of clarity is causing a reduction in confidence.” But hasn’t the Fed been quite clear that they will be watching the data and making decisions accordingly looking for the economy to slide and the labor market to cool off?  

Wall St ends down sharply; yields rise again, investors assess earnings

For days now, the Wall Street mantra has been, “the market often ignores geopolitics” (which really isn’t at all true but whatever allows investors to sleep at night) and certainly today the sentiment reversed. The mounting tensions have stoked risk aversion allowing safe haven Treasury yields to rise and stocks to take a big dive straight down on all three indexes, the Dow and Nasdaq both down well into 3-digits. There is also some sector rotation going on with investors trying to second guess which stocks are going to do well and which ones will not in this rapidly changing new environment. On the Q3 front, P&G beat market expectations while United Airlines came in below. Volume is up today just a tad above the 4-week average at 10.48 billion. 

Nasdaq ends down on higher yields, chipmaker share declines

It was a volatile day Tuesday with all three indexes bouncing back and forth between red and black, the Dow seeing a low of a -130 and a high of a +170 before settling near break-even at close.  On the one hand, higher Treasury yields made stocks less attractive while the other hand had good Q3 earnings pushing stocks up. There was the third hand of increased retail sales and factory output turning good news to bad news as the healthy data also pointed to the concerns of “higher for longer.” And of course, there was also the fourth hand of the Middle East, all in all making for a volatile day.  Volume is still a tad below average at 10.25 billion. 

Wall St ends sharply higher, Treasury yields gain as earnings, data loom

All three indexes were straight up all day long, the Dow reaching a high of a +400 by 11 a.m. and then staying steady the rest of the session.  “It’s some buying the dip,” said one expert and the fact that “markets often ignore geopolitics.”  Friday Q4 optimism seemed to have vanished but today it’s back as Q3 is expected to go well and as proof that companies are doing well despite high rates. Q3 reporting continues in earnest this week with several heavy hitters as well as new data on retail sales, industrial production and housing. Volume remains below average at 9.7 billion. 

AAII Investor Update: Index Fund Expense Ratios May Be Bottoming Out

For those of you who are big on index funds, here is the latest and greatest from the AAII.  

7 Best Dividend ETFs to Buy Now

Once again on the subject of investing for income, the latest on dividends from this week's edition of U.S. News Invested.  

S&P 500, Nasdaq fall with data, geopolitics offsets strong results

The day got started with a bang with all the indexes up, the Dow some 330 points, but then began an almost immediate decline but at least still managed to close in the black. The S&P and Nasdaq were not so lucky, both declining and going well into the red.  Even though Q3 reporting got started today with a bang with the three big banks turning in stellar results, consumer sentiment fell sharply with all our good data “expected to deteriorate over the next several months.”  

Dollar, yields rise, stocks fall after US consumer price data

After staying near break-even all morning, all the indexes took a big dive right at 1 pm, which is likely when the CPI report came out showing a larger than expected increase, even though it was the smallest in two years, and reinforcing the fears of higher-for-longer for rates and pulling the Dow down 350 points. (At 2 pm, there was a rebound that recovered half of those losses.) It put a damper on T-bills, slowing demand and sending yields higher. So just as yesterday’s falling yields sent stocks higher, today’s sent them lower. There’s even today a dampening of the optimism over a bright Q4 as today’s expert put it, “it’s gonna be difficult with all the uncertainty.” 

Wall Street advances as bond yields fall, investors digest Fed minutes

The indexes all opened high, the Dow up almost 150 points. Then suddenly at 11 a.m. they all took a nosedive again not only losing the gains but the Dow going 130 points into the red until about 2 pm when the buying started again and everyone closed in the black after all. The Nasdaq did better, staying in the black most of the day.  Everyone was selling ahead of the Fed releasing its September minutes, and the news of continuing uncertainties supported the view of no more hikes, which caused another buying spree, particularly on the rate sensitive issues.  

Dovish Fed officials boost Wall Street as bond yields retreat

The buying continues as the optimism over Fed remarks regarding no more rate hikes got a boost for second day when the Atlanta Fed prez reiterated Tuesday that the central bank does not need to raise interest rates further, and sees no recession ahead. Also helping the cause was the 10-year yield coming off a 16-year high thus also helping to boost stocks. As today’s expert put it, “Everybody has one eye on the Middle East and one eye on bond yields.”  Right now the Fed headlines are knocking all others off the front page. Minneapolis Fed prez also boosted the no more hikes scenario and a soft landing for recession. 

Wall Street advances as investors monitor Mideast conflict headlines

With the unexpected war this weekend, all the indexes were understandably down quite a bit this morning, the Dow and Nasdaq both in the red over 150 points each, but that all changed around 1 pm when the Fed unexpectedly took a more dovish tone indicating they could steer away from further hikes. This triggered another buying spree with all the indexes not only recouping all losses but ending the session comfortably in the black.  

10 Best Tech Stocks to Buy for 2023

Yesterday we talked about the best investment opportunities in environmental change. Today we talk about the best current opportunities in tech.  

Climate Change Pragmatism

This is a topic that has certainly been on everyone's mind for quite some time now.  This week, WealthTrack devoted its episode to the topic.  

Stocks rally, bond yields soar on blowout US jobs data

Though the day started with a modest decline, after 10 a.m. it was a straight shot up on all the indexes with the indexes recouping all the week’s losses by close and to a new weekly high. It must have been around 10 a.m. that the September payrolls report came out and it was a blowout with almost double the forecasted number of increased jobs, 336K new jobs (in addition to a sharply revised increased in August numbers) shocking the market. Even though more new jobs would be taken as bad news as it does not help inflation, the consensus today is that inflation is decelerating and wage growth moderating sufficiently to call this very good news.  

Wall St ends down slightly; investors await Friday's payrolls

It was a straight shot down huge right from the open, the Dow losing nearly 200 points by noon, then all the indexes began an ascent that got them to near break-even by 3 where they remained until close. The decline was blamed on recent jobs data that showed a still very tight labor market, another reason why Friday’s payrolls report will be the most important and anxiously awaited news of the week. The ascent may have been triggered by San Francisco Fed prez Mary Daly who said today that there may not be a need for any more rate hikes. Investors still eagerly await Q3 reporting with the forecast now being a 1.6% increase. Volume was below average at 9.76 billion. 

Wall St ends up after recent weakness; consumer discretionary gains

Much volatility, up and down between red and black all day, at least on the Dow but also on the S&P and Nasdaq though both of those managed to stay in the black all day.  Today’s trigger was just the very smallest hint of the good news that payrolls increased less than expected, once again giving rise to hope that inflation is getting under control and maybe future Fed policy won’t be so tight after all.  But, to keep perspective, today’s expert said, “We’re a little bit oversold. It seems it finally sunk in that interest rates are going to remain higher for longer.” (Gee I thought they had already come to that conclusion a couple weeks ago.)  As before, everyone is looking for Q3 to jumpstart the market again.  Volume was a tad below average at 2.5 billion. 

S&P 500 ends at lowest since June 1 as data fuels rate worries

It was a straight shot down from the open with most of the losses incurred by noon but then staying at the low for the rest of the session, all due to refreshed concerns about rates remaining high. It was yet another day of “higher for longer.” Inflation concerns were raised again with an unexpected increase in job openings suggesting a continuing tight labor market. Friday’s jobs report will be more telling.  Atlanta Fed prez reiterated that it will be a long time before any rate cuts. Investors look forward to Q4 reporting which are hoped to lift the market. The Dow is now slightly in the negative even though the Nasdaq, despite recent downturns, remains up 25% for year, mostly on optimism over AI.  Volume was above average at 11.16 billion. 

S&P 500 ends near flat; utilities drop, focus on rate outlook

Another volatile day with both the Dow and S&P deeply in the red, the Dow down almost 300 points, until about 1 pm when they started rising again with the S&P breaking even, the Dow losing 74.  The Nasdaq fared better staying in the black all day and gaining 88, mostly on a boost from Nvidia which got another endorsement from Goldman Sachs. September was a month of uncertainty with all three indexes losing for both the month and the quarter and all hopes on October and Q4 doing much better.  All eyes are now on Friday’s jobs report.  Volume was a little above average at 10.8 billion. 

10 Best Growth Stocks for the Next 10 Years

We've covered the topic of investing for income.  Now for the latest on the opposite side of the coin.