Wall Street rebounds from Brexit with second day of big gains

Maybe the third time really is the charm as today we saw the second consecutive day of a big buying spree pushing the Dow up another 285 points now recouping almost two-thirds of the selloff from the Brexit. As one expert said today, "It's not the end of the world and it never was the end of the world."  The rebound was accompanied by a bounce in oil prices triggered by another drawdown in crude inventories.  It seems oil is still the proxy for the global economy.  Other good news included consumer spending rising for the second straight month.  Will this continue or will there be more sliding due to the Brexit?  Probably a little of both.  But for now at least the markets are a little more calm.  The buying spree was on healthy volume of 8 billion shares.

Wall Street bounces back after two-day Brexit rout

As the old saying goes, the third time's the charm.  That seems to have come true today on this the third day following the Brexit.  The warnings that we will be a long time dealing with the impact of this historic moment may still come true, but at least as of today investors have decided things are going to be okay after all and have started a massive buying spree again bolting the Dow up 269 points effectively neutralizing yesterday's plunge.  It helped that the day saw new reports on growth reaffirming that the economy is still in good shape.  Yes, tomorrow is another day, but at least today we're in rebound and with a very healthy volume of 8.2 billion.

Wall Street sings Brexit blues with brutal two-day slide

Day #2 of the "Brexit Effect."  Would make a great title for a horror movie if it wasn't already so scary.  But as one expert has noted, at least the sell off has been orderly and not panicked.  On this second day the Dow has been stung to the tune of another 260 points making the two-day total just a shade short of a 900 point drop.  As has been noted, this is the biggest two-day loss in history, but that of course is only in terms of raw dollars.  Percentage-wise, it's not nearly so dramatic and with the Dow still over 17,000 it's really not anywhere near historic proportions at all.

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events for 6.24.16 (+ Trump/Clinton 1 yr of polls)

The week's summation is here again and this time the positives could not even begin to hold a candle to the negative of the Brexit, something that will be dominating the financial headlines for quite some time to come.  The very fascinating bonus this week is a graphic showing the averages over a one-year period of all of the 473 polls from 31 polling organizations of Trump v Clinton.  The resulting graph shows a very clear conclusion, and the corresponding analysis is also pretty compelling.

For your weekend pleasure, here is one jazzy graphic that demonstrates that dividend stocks are a pretty good place to keep your money these days.  It can be readily observed that in tumultuous times they handily outperform the index.  In less than tumultuous times, they are either even with or a little ahead of the index.  They do seem to be one place where one can have peace of mind.  For your consideration.  

U.S. Dividend Stock Performance, June 2015-2016

June 25, 2016 7:00am by Barry Ritholtz

Source: BlackRock

Worst day in 10 months as Wall Street reacts to 'Brexit'

So let's be honest.  There was really no reason why today's tumult in the global markets should have shocked anyone.  Okay, the markets bet against the Brexit and, as has happened numerous times in the past, the markets were wrong.  All the Wall Street geniuses, as well as the now defunct British PM, miscalculated the sentiments of the British people.  So the Dow fell 610 points.  It was grossly oversold anyway.  And, after all, though the news came crashing in today, Britain's actually exit doesn't happen for two whole years; and the whole universe can change in two years.

Wall St. bets on Britain staying in EU; stocks rally

Two weeks ago the polls showed a modest 4 percent leaning toward Britain leaving the EU.  After last week's assassination of Jo Cox, the gap started quickly closing until yesterday it was even-steven, with an impressive 9% undecided and presumed to be potential "Remain" votes.  This morning as Brits marched to the polls (in the midst of torrential rains), the surveys showed that half of that 9% was indeed now going anti-Brexit.  This shot the market up a very big 230 points as everyone was anxiously awaiting a big sigh of relief to learn that the global markets were likely not going to be turned upside down after all.  So much was this taken as a given that the VIX had a one-day decline of a whopping 18 percent.

Wall Street dips, all eyes on British referendum

On this Brexit Eve, the market (as it has the past few sessions) shot way up right out the gate only to gradually settle down lower as the day progressed to close 49 points down.  The morning's good news regarding Q2 earnings and strong retail sales provided the initial trigger, with the looming Brexit doing the rest.  The relatively low volume of 6.3 billion shares attests to the fact that a good amount of cash sits on the sidelines awaiting the results of tomorrow's referendum in England.  The polls show it to be an even contest, but the good news is that there is a substantial 9% undecided.  Tempers running so hot, it's a good bet that those 9 percent who are not "hot under the collar" will realize by tomorrow that unity is far preferable to separation.  This may explain why the markets have not been in too much turmoil.  Of course, all that could violently change tomorrow.

Wall St. ticks up on economy bets; Brexit fear ebbs

T minus two days until the Brexit vote.  Even though the pro vs con forces have been pretty evenly matched, there does seem to be building a very slight tilt against the exit.  As these things go, today's market was pretty even-tempered with the mild optimism leaving the Dow up 25 points.  The British pound responded in kind hitting its highest level against the dollar in six months.  And Janet Yellen issued yet another report, again optimistic about the recovery and warning about the ramifications of a Brexit.  Her best news: equity valuations are at their strongest in over 30 years.  In other words, no signs of another recession yet.  Trading was just a little below recent averages at 6.2 billion.

Wall Street ends higher as Britain seen staying in EU

What a tangled web the Brexit weaves.  On news that public sentiment in England is turning and the odds now momentarily against Britain exiting the EU later this week, the Dow shot up 270 points right out the gate and then spent the rest of the session gradually settling down to close 130 up.  But Thursday is still an eternity away and the slightest burp can easily send everything hurling in the other direction.  But at least the U.K.'s ETF is also seeing good news with the fund up four percent and at more than triple average volume.  Still, Thursday is an eternity away.  At 6.6 billion, volume was just a little below recent averages of 6.8 billion.

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events for 6.17.2016 (plus The Next Subprime)

For the second week in a row, the succinct summation fails to include what I consider to be the biggest story of the week, the so-called Brexit.  This week it was seriously amped up by Thursday's murder of British MP Jo Cox, a leading anti-Brexit politician.  The vote is coming later this week, and it may have global ramifications.  Other negatives include manufacturing down a bit, jobless claims up a bit, and stocks down for a second consecutive week (primarily because of the Brexit threat.)  Positives include higher sales and lower prices.  And as a consequence of the higher sales, lower inventories.

The Power Hierarchy - The Big Picture

Courtesy of today's column by Barry Ritholtz on his "Big Picture" blog, an insightful little essay about where the real power resides in this country.  You may be surprised.  It is most certainly not with the 1%, much less for that matter with Wall Street as a whole.  It's not even with Apple.  Enjoy his analysis ...

The Power Hierarchy - The Big Picture

Wall St. ends week on down note as Apple weighs

The Brexit still weighs heavily on Wall Street (and every other global market), heavy enough so that the Dow took another big dive this morning right out the gate to the tune of 130 points.  Apple took some of the heat since the Chinese government has now banned the company from selling the iPhone in its biggest market, claiming that it infringes on some Chinese patents.  (Yeah right, as if there can be a second Steve Jobs in the world.)  But, really, investors are jumping on and off the fence like crazy trying to position themselves for what may or may not happen in England next week.  Right now the polls give the pro-Brexit forces a 2 to 4 percent lead.  With the margin of error, that's probably close to even.  Anyway, 130 points down in the morning but recovered in the afternoon to close 58 down.  Buying and selling like crazy, at 9 billion shares, volume was considerably above the 4-week average of 6.7 billion.

Wall Street rebounds, snaps five-day losing streak

At approximately 8 a.m. Eastern Time, the world was shaken by news of the assassination of British MP (Member of Parliament) Mrs. Jo Cox, an anti-Brexit activist who was shot and stabbed several times by a 78 year old vehemently pro-Brexit mental patient in the town of Birstall 200 miles north of London.  Though British authorities say it is too early to confirm that the killing was politically motivated, the fact that the shooter, a well-known anti-EU protester, was heard screaming "Britain First, Britain First!" as he fired the fatal shots, leaves little doubt in most observers' minds that this was all about the Brexit vote coming up next week.

Wall Street falls as Fed holds steady and Brexit vote looms

The Dow fell another 34 points today and the consensus is that it was due to continuing modest worries over next week's so-called Brexit.  As expected, there was no interest rate announcement from the Fed this afternoon.  As expected, Janet Yellen's remarks were reassuring that no rate hikes would be coming in the near future and that the situation in Britain was certainly factored into that decision.  But here's the thing.  The Dow was actually up almost 90 points during the session and only came crashing down after 3:30 p.m. This does not appear at all correlated to either Britain or the Fed.  But with the market reacting so moderately overall, it would seem that investors don't really believe the polls in England and don't really think the Brexit is going to happen.  Recall the same thing happened with Scotland a couple years ago where the polls were all wrong and the Scots voted to stay in the U.K.  So let's stay calm until there's a reason not to.  Even the "fear gauge" fell almost 2% today.  Volume was a little above average at 6.8 billion shares.

Wall Street falls as Brexit vote becomes major fear

Market nerves continue to be ever so slightly on edge as the first of the two day June Fed meeting is underway and, though every expectation is that there will be no interest rate hike announcement tomorrow, everyone will still be listening raptly to every word Janet Yellen has to utter.  But the upcoming so-called Brexit vote has probably created more anxiety than anything else as Britain seems headed towards a split the rest of the world is dreading, sending the VIX to its highest level in three months.  Today's good news was better than expected U.S. retail sales.  Volume was a little above average at 7.4 billion.

Brexit and Fed fears weigh on world stocks; yen firms (plus Tensile Investing)

As this week's Fed meeting and next week's Brexit referendum draw nearer, the market is once again getting a case of the nerves creating sentiment toward caution that brought the Dow down 132 points today.  With the potential damage to the EU threatening global recession, oil is also down and EU stocks hit their lowest levels in three months.  Still, with only 3.6 billion shares traded, more money is sitting on the sidelines than on the table.  Much more reporting due this week, and then we'll see.

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 6.10.16 (+ Muhammad Ali eulogy)

It's been another Sunday spent studying the CFP, another 150 pages of material to prepare for the second exam coming on Wednesday, with special focus this time on developing risk profiles for prospective clients.  Meanwhile, here's the week's summation.  The positives:  mortgage applications up, job openings up.  The negatives: ECB starting into negative interest rates.  What I thought was the week's biggest negative didn't make the list -- Britain may be pulling out of the EU.  Hope your weekend was better than theirs.  

10 Weekend Reads - 6-11-16 The Big Picture

Another fascinating Saturday reading list courtesy of Barry Ritholtz and his "The Big Picture" blog on the Wall Street Journal web site.  The one item that caught my eye this weekend is a topic that I've been waiting for a lot more coverage of -- the Flint water crisis not being limited to Flint but actually a nationwide epidemic.  Happy reading and hope everyone is enjoying this very warm summer weekend.

Within sight of a record, Wall Street runs into a wall

What with three days to think about it, investors have now apparently decided the recent rally is over and are taking their profits, thereby plunging the Dow 119 points.  Today's major trigger was Britain's threat to exit the EU, which would be a major game changer.  Recent polling shows a majority of the British favoring it.  So Wall Street is bracing for that vote now two weeks off.  But there is a slew of new reporting coming next week that will either turn things around or encourage a deeper slide.  At 6.8 billion shares, volume was in line with recent averages.

Wall Street retreats with oil prices after three-day rally

Yesterday commodities were up a little ... and so was the market.  Today commodities were down a little ... and so was the market.  The consensus seems to be that investors are taking a breath after the recent rally and this is reflected in the very modest 19 point downturn in the Dow while the S&P remains within spitting distance of its all-time high.  With no major new news and nothing but minor consolidation going on, sentiment about next week's Fed meeting remains boringly unchanged.  Some boredom in the market is very refreshing from time to time.  Volume was below average at 6.1 billion.

Dow finishes back above 18,000 as dollar dips

Based on the consensus that no rate hike will be coming next week, gold, copper and oil all got a boost.  As goes commodities, then generally the dollar goes the other way.  With a little weaker dollar, international firms got a boost sending the Dow up 67 points.  The S&P continues to climb, now just 12 points off its record high.  Nobody's particularly anxious about next week's Fed meeting anymore since it is expected rates will remain unchanged.  Volume was just a little below recent averages at 6.5 billion.

S&P edges closer to record high; energy shares lead

Investors took a second day today to digest Janet Yellen's remarks about the economy and interest rates and decided they still like what they heard, pushing the Dow up again, this time another 18 points.  The energy index also got a boost and the S&P is now just 18 points short of its all-time high.  The question now - will we break out to new all-time highs, or settle back again?  Volume was just a little below recent averages at 6.4 billion shares.

S&P 500 ends at seven-month high after Yellen comments

Janet Yellen today gave the market exactly what it was looking for - reassurances that the economy was on the right track along with double reassurances that sufficient improvements were still needed before the next rate hike.  All of Wall Street's fears that a June or July hike was imminent went away with the pundits now convinced we're looking more realistically at late year instead, and thus investors pushed the Dow up 113 points.  The S&P also benefited closing just 21 points below its record high.  But as happy as Yellen's comments were, all eyes remain on next week's Fed meeting.  Volume was just a little below recent averages at 6.4 billion.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events June 3rd 2016 (plus Sunday reads)

A summary of a lackluster week that included a poor jobs report that investors are still trying to figure out if that's a good thing or a bad thing.  The Sunday bonus is another fascinating reading list with articles ranging from our favorite topic of behavioral finance (Why IQ Matters More Than Grit), how the economy is impacting the 2016 presidential race and why it is so difficult to keep secrets, especially on Wall Street.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.

Earnings and Performance Data For All Earnings Recessions Since 1955

Still another graphic that compresses tremendous information into a single table, this time a history of all recessions since 1955.  Did anyone else know that supposedly we're in another recession that started last fall?  Another significant bonus is this weekend's Masters In Business series, this time an interview with Steven Pinker, author of "How the Mind Works" with yet another view of our favorite subject and the one area of investing that separates the winners from the losers - the psychological aspect of putting your hard earned dollars on the line.

Weak jobs report weighs on Wall Street, bank shares

Today was yet another textbook example of the irrational behavior of the market.  For weeks now the fear of a June or July rate hike has produced the sentiment that a good May jobs report would be undesirable as it would give the Fed a sound basis for a hike.  Today the report delivered exactly what investors claimed to want -- weak numbers, the fewest new jobs in 5-1/2 years, only 38,000 against a forecast of 164,000.  There should have been dancing in the streets.  Instead the Dow dropped like a rock right out the gate and only later in the session came back as investors realized that weak job growth was what they wanted in the first place.  So the pessimists got good news.  Even the optimists were happy as they quickly concluded this was an aberration and we'd be getting much better numbers in June.  Thus the job market was still in pretty good shape, much better than this one report reflected.  But that did not stop the dramatic dive in all three indexes, a dive that came close to but never did fully recover, the Dow starting the day with a dive of almost 150 points and closing down just 31.  Not a bad rebound but no cigar.  Irrational.  At 7 billion, volume was right in line with recent averages.

Healthcare helps Wall St. to slight gains; jobs report next

A mild 48 point bump in the Dow due to seven months of good news for the S&P and seven days of gains for the Nasdaq.  A good private hiring report plus lower joblessness also helped.  Even though good job reports might trigger a June rate hike, today's data was still greeted as good news, as if the market is actually finally now looking forward to the hike and the stability that will hopefully come with it.  Still, what everyone's really waiting for is tomorrow's government payroll report and this is reflected in the lower than average 6.4 billion shares traded.

Wall St. notches minor gains as economic data pours in

And so I’ve had my 2^nd mentor session, tough quiz but I think I did okay.  Won’t know though for two more weeks.  The session went quite cordially otherwise.  12 more weeks.   In other news, the market had a wild ride today, dropping 120 points right out the gate but recovered by session's end a big 2 points up.  Investors are processing a lot of contradictory data while sitting on needles and pins for the employment and payroll reports coming tomorrow and Friday.  Bad reports may mean rate hikes will be delayed.  Meanwhile, though global manufacturing is static, U.S. manufacturing has grown for a third consecutive month.  On the minus side, May auto sales were weaker.  Volume was below average at 6.5 billion.