Dow rallies to year's highest close, caps blockbuster month

The Dow was up all day and with high triple-digit gains closing at its highest level in nearly two years. The Nasdaq was down big time most of the day but did a remarkable recovery after 3 pm to close with just a modest loss.  The S&P was also in negative territory most of the day but also recovered in the final hour to a modest gain. The trigger was the PCE report which showed inflation still steadily cooling suggesting it is no longer a major headwind, something the markets very much wanted to see. 

S&P 500 ends lower on mixed Fed messages, PCE on deck

It was another day of choppy trading as the indexes continued to digest comments from the Fed governors, Waller saying rate cuts were coming, Barken that more rate hikes were likely, and today Meister saying the bank needed to remain “nimble.” But at least until 2 pm, the markets seemed to still be optimistic, the Dow up over 150 points, over a strong GDP report (see chart below) that showed the resilience of the economy and giving more reassurance of avoiding recession, while the big guns remain on the sidelines pending Thursday’s PCE report regarding inflation. Volume was above average at 11.42 billion. 

Stocks rise as dollar falls, gold rallies on Fed commentary

Trading on the indexes was choppy with the Dow up nearly 200 points by noon but closing with gains all around, the Dow up 83.  Encouraging comments from Fed Governor Waller encouraged the sentiment that rate hikes were done and even bolstered optimism that the first cuts could come as early as March. Then Fed Governor Bowman threw cold water on Waller’s comments by reaffirming that more hikes would probably be necessary to get inflation to the Fed’s goal, thus the choppiness bringing the market down. 

Global stock index falls with Treasury yields, oil prices dip

It was a seesaw day and mostly in the red (except for the Nasdaq) with the Dow down some hundred points before rebounding, but overall a day for just modest losses on all the indexes. Oddly enough, after months of investors banking on the economy cooling off, today concerns turned to worries that the economy was slowing at all. Black Friday was praised last week, but today – “Investors are bracing for lower discretionary spending.”  It seems on Wall Street you can only please some of the people all the time.  Fortunately, this sudden change in sentiment was short-lived with a continuing light volume of only 9.3 billion. 

7 High-Yield ETFs for Income Investors

Continuing the theme of sound investment opportunities for this long holiday weekend, how about some recommendations for income producing ETFs (to help pay for all the upcoming holiday expenses.)  Hope everyone had a great holiday. 

10 Largest Mutual Funds by AUM

We haven't covered mutual funds for quite some so I thought it was quite appropriate for this holiday weekend that this was the topic of this latest issue of U.S. News Invested.  Continue enjoying the long weekend.  

Wall St ends mixed in truncated Black Friday trading

Today was a short day with the exchanges closing at 1 pm for the post-Thanksgiving session. And though inflation is prompting consumer frugalness, it is still expected, as shown on the chart below, that holiday spending will be up 5% and that despite today’s mixed data, the markets are still very much on track for the traditional year-end rally.  The PMI report showed steady business activity while private employment dropped for the first time in 3-1/2 years, both good signs for inflation and rates. Volume was just under 5 billion which was half of the 10 billion average, consistent with the half-day. 

Muni Bonds Comeback

For Thanksgiving, let's give a shout out to one very safe investment, especially for retirees, that we don't talk about very often -- tax-free municipal bonds.  

Wall St climbs before holiday; investors optimistic Fed done hiking rates

The profit-taking lasted only one day before the buying resumed in earnest today as optimism continued over the no more hikes and recession soft landing scenarios. There’s also a boost to optimism by the historic rally that has often occurred during the holidays. The only negative on the day was the new darling Nvidia that, though it beat its Q3 estimate also surprised with a reduced Q4 forecast. Volume was again considerably below average at 8.57 billion. 

Wall Street ends lower, gold jumps as Fed minutes reveal cautious policy approach

As today’s expert put it, “We’ve had a very sharp rally, and some profit-taking was probably overdue,” is as good as any explanation for the modest downturn all three indexes took today triggered in large part by cautious Fed minutes that confirmed the “higher-for-longer” scenario.  But the tumbling sales of existing homes, the lowest in 13 years, due to rising mortgage rates plus falling Treasury yields was supporting news on the inflation front. Volume remained considerably below average at 9.4 billion.  

Nasdaq leads Wall Street's gains as Microsoft hits record high

It was a straight shot up all day on all three indexes, the Dow and Nasdaq once again with triple-digit gains, the Dow up 203. Having recruited two of the top AI execs from one of the top AI companies, Microsoft shot way up to a record high and took the whole tech sector with them. The combo of falling Treasury yields, a strong earnings season and the expected traditional holiday rally has set a positive mood. The Dow is at its highest since August 9 and the S&P is just 1% short of its 2023 high in July. This week’s catalysts include Nvidia’s Q3, Tuesday’s Fed minutes, and Black Friday foot traffic. Volume was below average at 10.1 billion. 

7 Dividend Stocks With Good ESG Scores

ESG remains a subject of debate with some insisting that traditional stocks are more profitable while others finding it a viable alternative for those wishing to support companies that contribute to a healthy world. However one stands on this issue, there's no question that it does provide a reasonable option for even the most conservative investor and certainly no question that the companies listed below are indeed very solid.  

40 Years of Market Wisdom

As the old saying goes -- Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Sometimes it is indeed a very good idea to look at the Big Picture. With that theme in mind, once again we hear from James Grant as he gives us 40 years of perspective on the markets. 

Stocks close little changed to notch weekly win

This was one of those rare days when I could find no market report so I had to settle for the below from Yahoo, which was not very comprehensive. But the chart once again showed erratic selling in the morning bringing the Dow down some 60 points followed by an equally erratic buying spree in the afternoon with the Dow +80 at its high point. But all three indexes ended the day flat with just a few points gain, but that was enough for a third straight week of wins. November so far is one of the biggest gainers for the year.  Cooling inflation data and a softening job market has continued the sentiment of an end to rate hikes and a soft landing for recession, making this the third week ending on the plus side. Per the CBOE, volume was 10.1 billion. 

S&P 500 barely gains while Dow ends lower as Cisco and Walmart drag

With all the indexes deeply in the red for much of the day, the Dow down 180 points by 2:30 p.m., today’s expert summed it up well.  “The big driver today is the tug of war between those who want to sell on rallies and those who want to buy on dips.” In the final hour there was a big rally which brought all the indexes to either minor gains or minor losses but the day was anything but flat.  The big selling was triggered by major tumbles in giants Cisco, Palo Alto Networks, and Walmart, while the buying was supported by gains in giants Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia. Good news included rising unemployment claims which supported the view of no more hikes, which also held the odds of a May rate cut at 62%. Volume was a tad below average at 10.7 billion. 

Wall Street gains on easing inflation, Target's upbeat forecast

The Dow had a straight shot up which accounts for its 3-digit increase. The S&P and Nasdaq first had a big shot up, then a big shot down, which accounts for why they both ended the day near zero. That’s odd since the big news for the day was the encouraging PPI report (biggest decline in 3-1/2 years) that, along with retail sales confirms the narrative of both no more rate hikes and a soft landing. There was also Target’s big 17.8% boost, its biggest in four years, which in turn boosted the entire retail index. Eyes are now on the big meeting between Biden and Jinping with hopes it will calm frictions and, of course, the stopgap spending bill which must be signed before Friday’s midnight deadline for the government shutdown. Volume remains above average at 11.67 billion. 

Wall St rallies as data supports view Fed may be done hiking rates

It was a big shot straight up right out the gate this morning on all three indexes with the Dow up about 600 by 11 a.m. and staying there all day until a modest drop in the final minutes to close up just under 500. There were similar dramatic jumps on both the Nasdaq and Dow. The huge rally was triggered by CPI data that beat estimates with October price rises coming in at 3.2% vs September’s 3.7%, the smallest rise in two years.  The softening inflation gave a big boost to rate cut projections now estimated at 65% in May compared to 34% just yesterday. There remain concerns about the funding bill facing an end of the week government shutdown. Volume was considerably above average at 12.6 billion. 

S&P 500 takes a pause ahead of U.S inflation data

All the indexes started in the red, the S&P and Nasdaq considerably so, but began an immediate ascent to break-even by noon and then stayed that way, taking a breath ahead of Tuesday’s CPI report which is expected to show decreasing inflation and give some more clarity on Fed policy. The expectation remains for no more hikes conditional on continued reduced inflation. The odds of no December hike are now at 86%. There is concern about the nation’s credit rating being reduced from “stable” to “negative,” plus there is the impending government shutdown. As the market takes a breath, volume was below average at 9.34 billion. 

Seismic Interest Rate Shift

Yesterday we talked about the investment opportunities brought about by rising interest rates.  Today we shift our focus to the very phenomenon of interest rates courtesy of PBS' Wealthtrack program as Consuelo Mack interviews interest rate expert James Grant about what's going on in the current environment.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  More sunny days ahead.  

9 of the Best Bond ETFs to Buy Now

This weekend, the theme will be interest rates and we'll get started tonight with a look at the most promising bond ETFs per this week's edition of U.S. News Invested since, as rates continue to be "higher for longer," bonds are now becoming as attractive (or even moreso) than stocks.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Wall Street soars, fueled by tech as Treasury yields calm

All the second thoughts about “higher for longer” that had brought the market down during the last two days evaporated today as investors decided to shrug off Powell’s recent remarks and focus instead on the stabilizing Treasury yields. After two down days, investors decided to snatch up bargains and all the indexes went zooming way up into mid 3-digit levels. Today’s soaring market pushed the indexes into big gains for the week, the Dow up 0.7%, the S&P 1.3, the Nasdaq 2.4%.  The only bad news for the day was consumer sentiment falling for the fourth straight month on continuing expectations of more inflation. Volume was below average at 10.2 billion. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq snap winning streaks after Powell, Treasury auction

Everything was chugging along close to break-even until 1 pm, then went very south very quickly. If investors were merely disappointed by Powell’s remarks yesterday in which he didn’t even mention monetary policy, today they got it with both barrels as Powell came right out blasting, “the fight against inflation has not been won” and if warranted “won’t hesitate to hike rates again.” The indexes went into triple-digit losses again after the longest winning streak in two years. With today’s remarks, the forecast for a first rate cut in May has now been extended until the end of 2024.  Volume was above average at 11.36 billion. 

Stocks slip as market seeks rate-cut timing, dollar gains

All the indexes got a bump first thing but as of 10 a.m. started a nose dive (the Dow down some 250 points) until noon when a recovery started with the Dow closing with a modest loss, the others with very modest gains. Overall, there was disappointment in Powell’s remarks in that he mentioned nothing about monetary policy whereas investors were hoping for more guidance on the timing of rate cuts, though the consensus remains at 50% for a rate cut in May.  But sentiment seems to be, “rates have peaked but a rate cut is unlikely to come soon.” Nonetheless, another expert says, “It’s too early to say that.” Thus uncertainty prevails. Volume was 10.4 billion. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq score longest win streak in 2 years on rates view

It was a choppy day but at least it was mostly in the black with modest gains for the Dow and S&P and more than modest gains for the Nasdaq. But with three Fed governors today refusing to rule out rate cuts, investors continue to push the narrative that the Fed is done with rate hikes. Yesterday the mood was – maybe, maybe not. Today it changed to “the Fed is done.” This pushed the Dow and S&P to their seventh straight gains and the Nasdaq to its eighth, the longest streak in two years. There is a 90.2% chance of no December rate hike vs 69% a week ago. Powell speaks again on Wednesday and Thursday.  Volume again came in at 10 billion. 

Wall St extends winning streak; eyes Fed speakers, Treasury auctions

The indexes were up rather handsomely in the morning, then took a substantial dive at noon to begin another rally at 2 pm that closed the day with modest gains, the 6^th in a row for the Dow and S&P, 7^th for Nasdaq. But last week’s exuberant buying seems to have now dissipated as the markets look for more guidance from the Fed but still with strong confidence that there will be no hike in December (90.4%) and there may well come cuts as early as May. This week eyes are on jobless claims on Thursday and consumer sentiment data on Friday. 4/5^th of the S&P has reported with 81.6% beating estimates. Volume was 10 billion. 

9 of the Best Stocks for a Starter Portfolio

Given that the theme this weekend is a review of basics, I'm sharing last week's edition of U.S. News Invested on choosing stocks for a beginner portfolio, in other words very safe.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

AAII: Expanding Upon the 10 Commandments of Investing

A while back we talked about the AAII's Wayne Thorp's 10 rules of investing. As I feel it's a good idea to get back to basics from time to time, this week, the AAII published an expansion on this topic.  Have a great weekend.   

US stocks close higher as Treasury yields fall after weak jobs data

Just like yesterday it was another shot straight up with again triple-digit gains on both the Dow and Nasdaq.  For a long time investors have been waiting for the very tight job market to loosen up a bit and today they got that good news with new jobs increasing by 70K less than expected and unemployment ticking up to 3.9%.  This lent confidence that rates will remain steady for the foreseeable future and the corresponding drop in Treasury yields for the fourth session reinforced all this with the 10-year at its lowest level in five weeks.  

Wall Street indexes rally on bets of peak US interest rates, strong earnings

Today it was one great big shot straight up on all three indexes as investors take a second day to further digest yesterday’s Fed comments and continue a bullish mood that rate hikes are done.  This same optimism sent Treasury yields tumbling which also supported stocks, and good earnings news from such heavy hitters as Starbucks, Qualcomm, PayPal and Apple added to the surge. 

US stocks rally as Fed holds rates, prompts hope for end to hikes

It was another exuberant day as all three indexes were in the black all day starting high but with a dip between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. but then another straight shot up for 3-digit advances on both the Dow and Nasdaq. Sentiment was positive with Powell’s remarks suggesting “the bar has become higher for rate hikes,” which investors took that hikes were done with November rates remaining unchanged.