Wall Street ends up on recovery expectation

For this last full day of trading for 2020 we saw the Dow inching to a new record with investor optimism about the outlook for 2021 which, put another way, means it’s got to be better than 2020.  A bigger stimulus pretty much got nixed by McConnell today but as today’s expert put it, “Something’s better than nothing but there’s a lot of politics involved.” That’s really a glass half-full attitude but the real issue now is the Georgia run-off on January 5^th.  So the Dow was up 74 points and the S&P is coming into year-end 15.5% up on the year.  For the final week of the year trading is of course subdued with volume below the 4-week average at just under 9.6 billion.   

Wall St dips from record levels, additional stimulus uncertain

Everything was going swimmingly until about noon with the Dow and other indexes all hitting intraday record highs.  Then McConnell announced that there would be no immediate consideration of increased stimulus payments and that sent everything crashing down for all the indexes to close with modest losses, the Dow down 68 points. To be fair, he’s not killing it, simply postponing it to include the debate on other issues including big tech and election integrity. But his failure to endorse sent the markets from green to red.  The S&P will close the year 15.4% up if the two remaining trading days hold no major surprises and volume will continue to be light compared to recent averages, as it was today at just under 9.5 billion. 

Wall Street climbs to record as fiscal aid bill signed

Trump’s late night signing of the relief bill sent the markets way up again (who says this stuff is already priced in?), the Dow soaring 204 points.  The Democrats wasted no time putting together a package for higher relief payments but it’s doubtful it’ll get past the Senate. The S&P is well positioned  to finish the year up 15 percent despite substantial worrisome headwinds which may prove problematic in 2021.  Volume for this final week will be thin and indeed came in today below the 4-week average at 9.9 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 12.25.20 (plus the federal budget)

Below please find the usual weekly summation, this week being abbreviated due to the holidays. Nonetheless, the positives and negatives have remained mostly unchanged, the main positive being the distribution of the vaccine, this week going to 3.3 million Americans. The main negative besides being another terrible pandemic week with more than 3,000 deaths daily is the president creating more chaos in vetoing the relief  bill.  (As of Sunday night, the news is he has now signed the bill!) 

The Beatles Sneak Peek

Hey, it's Christmas!  Let's have one day when we're just having fun and not talking finance. In that spirit, here is today's post from Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture blog.  Enjoy. 

Lifetime Learning - a special Christmas gift from WealthTrack

Merry Christmas to one and all and very befitting for this holiday is a special gift from Consuelo Mack at PBS's WealthTrack, her program this week being with Charley Ellis and his books on lifetime lessons in investing. He has taught investing for years at Yale, Harvard, and Princeton. Who needs an Ivy League degree when you have WealthTrack? Enjoy the program. Enjoy the books. And enjoy the holiday, stay well!  

Wall Street closes with a modest gains on Brexit deal, stimulus hopes

The markets closed modestly higher with hopes pinned to an imminent stimulus agreement and brighter days from the vaccine rollout. The UK completing the Brexit today also boosted optimism. Due to the shortened holiday week and a shortened trading day for Christmas Eve, volume was about half the usual at about 6.1 billion. 

S&P 500 ends slightly higher as investors bet on recovery

The Dow closed up 114 points on this final full day of trading before Christmas with investors showing confidence in a recovery in 2021 by once again rotating into the traditional cyclical stocks that will most benefit from a recovering economy. As today’s expert put it, “Hope is out there.” The downside is that there remains the possibility of a government shutdown after all since Trump’s veto threat. But given the overwhelming bipartisan support for the bill, he may well be looking at his first override. Today’s data shows a decrease in joblessness and factory orders up but also declining spending, personal income and sentiment. There was a mild uptick in the 4-week average as volume came in at 12.2 billion. 

S&P 500 ends lower as new COVID storm clouds overshadow stimulus passage

For the third day the markets were on a straight trajectory down but this time did not recover and the Dow closed 200 points down. This was all triggered by further consideration of the mutant COVID strain coming from the UK and how this might impact both the pandemic progress and the recovery. Or, as today’s expert put it, “Today the market is catching its breath,” or put another way another day of profit-taking. The pandemic continues to violently surge with over 200K new infections each day, making for extreme market volatility.  2020 will indeed be unique as our expert also put it, “This will be the first year in history when stocks were off 30% for the year at one point and finished in the green.”  Volume was again very close to the 4-week average at 11.0 billion. 

S&P 500 ends lower as COVID worries lightened by stimulus

All three indexes were big time in the red today all the way up until nearly close when they all recovered to near break-even. This was the consequence of dealing with the bad news of the new strain of COVID in the UK (though U.S. health officials say the 2 current vaccines should still be effective against) and the stimulus package, which passed today.  The package was not as much as was hoped for but “appears big enough to hold off a recession.”  The traditional “Santa rally” has not yet taken place, though may be in force tomorrow now that stimulus is done and the checks expected out next week. Volume was right in line with the 4-week average at 11.6 billion. 

Week’s Events for 12.18.20 (plus COVID'S ECONOMIC IMPACT)

Below is the usual Sunday night weekly summation, the main positive being the beginning of the vaccine rollout and one that happened tonight after this was published on Friday -- the passage of the stimulus bill!  The main negative remains the deadliest day yet for the pandemic -- and a new major negative this week -- the massive Russian hack of our most secretive institutions. 

Happy Holidays And This Is What Makes A Market

Happy holidays from our friends at Heritage Capital Research as on Wednesday they shared their wisdom about the current state of the markets and the forces that have made the market what it is. Have a good read this weekend and have a good weekend.  

Wall Street closes lower as stimulus rally cools, Tesla volume jumps

The week ended on another down note as stimulus uncertainty once again dominated market sentiment driving the Dow down 124 points, though it was down quite a lot more than that earlier in the session. But with all three indexes reaching records yesterday, it was time for a retreat and some profit-taking. Volume was huge at 15.8 billion but this was the illusory once per month quadruple witching effect so it doesn’t count. And continuing weak economic data provides more investor optimism that stimulus is on the way. Later this evening, it was on the news that still another stopgap measure had been passed by the Senate to keep the government operating for still one more week. 

Wall Street ends at record highs as investors eye fiscal stimulus

All three indexes closed at new records today as investor optimism over the stimulus increased. Yesterday’s news of retail sales falling, unemployment increasing and the Moderna vaccine approval stoked the optimism.  The S&P has had a great year, climbing 15 percent and now investors are propping it up further looking for bargains in the conventional sectors of financials and energy.  Volume remains a little below the 4-week average at 10.5 billion. 

Nasdaq ends at record high as investors await stimulus

The Dow spent most of the day in the red but recovered in the last hour to close just 44 points down. There is still vibrant optimism that a stimulus package is right around the corner and the Fed boosted things in repeating its pledge to keep interest rates near zero, widely seen as a major support for stock prices.  The tech companies benefiting from the pandemic also got another boost. Volume was again a little below the 4-week average at 9.9 billion. 

Nasdaq ends at record high on stimulus bets, Apple boost

With all eyes on the widely anticipated and expected soon to be passed relief bill plus Apple’s happy announcement of their planned big boost in iPhone production, all three indexes zoomed up, the Dow 337 points. The optimism over the stimulus bill was stoked by Pelosi inviting congressional leaders to a meeting to finalize the deal. Volume remains robust at 10 billion though still a little below the greatly elevated 4-week average of 11.5 billion. 

S&P 500 ends down, Walt Disney weighs

The Dow was actually up considerably most of the day until Disney was downgraded by BMO Capital Markets and lost all its gains from last week to be replaced once again by front-runner Netflix which climbed 4 percent. But despite a strong rise in the consumer index and general optimism, the markets were dragged down at the end of the day by investor sentiment that “the vaccine is not going to be a silver bullet.”  The Dow closed down 184 points as everyone awaits the Congress passing the relief bill and early voting starts in Georgia. Volume was a little below average at 10.4 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 12.11.20 (plus Daily State of the Markets)

The usual weekly summation is below, the main positive being the FDA approval of Pfizer's vaccine, the main negative being the awful new spikes and awful new daily records of COVID. The vaccine cannot get here too soon. The Sunday bonus this weekend is the most current report from Heritage Capital Research concerning their assessment of where the markets currently stand. Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

The Individual Investor’s Guide to Personal Tax Planning 2020

For your weekend reading, I submit this week's latest offerings from the AAII, something I'm sure everyone can use -- an investor's guide to 2020 tax planning.  The link and full text of the article is below.  Enjoy your weekend, wet though it may be. (better rain than snow! - though I just had my snow tires put on so I don't care one way or the other.)

Stimulus uncertainty hems in Wall Street; Disney soars

It was another pandemic-on day with the Dow down 180 points at noon but steadily recovering throughout the afternoon session to close 47 points up. Disney provided the late session boost forecasting 350 million subscribers for its streaming services by 2024. Facing a midnight deadline, the Senate approved the widely expected stopgap relief measure but there remain major hurdles in the battle which could carry over through Christmas. It was principally this uncertainty that kept the markets down despite the overall optimism, as stated by today’s expert, “The base case is that they’re going to get it done.” One bit of good news is that the U of M survey showed improved consumer sentiment despite the faltering labor market. The FDA is expected to authorize the Pfizer vaccine as soon as this evening. (As of 9:20 p.m., the vaccine has been approved.) Volume was a little below average at 9.9 billion. 

Wall Street shakes off labor market data with stimulus in focu

It was another pandemic-on day with jobless claims coming in well above forecast and a COVID relief bill still undone though a vote is expected Friday on a stopgap measure. But the competing pressures between the downbeat economy and the timing and size of the relief package will continue to be a daily volatile struggle. The Dow was down 69, the Nasdaq 66.  The only good news is that the faltering labor market combined with the COVID surges will continue to pile pressure on the Congress to get moving. Volume was 10.3 billion. 

Wall Street ends lower on stimulus uncertainty, Facebook weighs

Today Facebook is being sued by the FTC and nearly every state for antitrust violations which brought all the indexes down, the Nasdaq 243 points, the Dow 105. Meanwhile it was a pandemic-on day as the much wanted and long awaited relief package stays in limbo versus the likely passage this week of a one-week funding bill, hoping that a week is enough to reach a deal on the big package. But the consensus is that stocks are way overvalued right now which means the slightest bad news will trigger a sell off.  A bill passed before Christmas is hoped to remedy that. Volume was a tad above average at 12.0 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher on vaccine lift; S&P 500, Nasdaq at records

It was a vaccine-on day as J&J announced the testing of its vaccine could be completed as early as January and Pfizer cleared another hurdle for approval of its drug. That and the Congress voting this week on a stopgap relief bill that both sides agree on, plus McConnell now stating he’s ready to eliminate the main roadblocks to the main relief bill all sent the Dow up 104 points. Investors are expected to soon shift their focus from vaccine approval to global vaccine distribution. Volume remains a little below the 4-week average at the still very vigorous 10.4 billion shares traded. 

Nasdaq closes at record high as growth names get a lift

It was a pandemic-on day as new COVID restrictions put the continuing economic crisis on the front burner again and the Dow dove 148 points. This changed market sentiment back to growth and tech and the Nasdaq closed to a new record 55 points up. Though vaccine news is imminent, as today’s expert says, “it is kind of this weird period where we are waiting on emergency use approval.” The relief bill remains undone though a stopgap bill is expected  in order to extend the time for reaching agreements. Volume was a tad below the 4-week average though still very high at nearly 10.8 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 12.04.20 (plus Unraveling Medicare)

Below find the usual weekly summation, the main positive being that November saw the strongest market gains in 30 years and November's layoffs were considerably lower than October's. The main negative as always is the out of control spikes in COVID with the unprecedented daily death rate now over 3,000.  The bonus this Sunday is the latest segment of Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack program in which we get the latest and greatest navigation of Medicare for those of us who are retired.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  COVID not withstanding, we're in for a nice week. 

7 Highest-Paying Dividend Stocks in the S&P 500

As we begin to wind down another year, U.S. News Invested goes back to basics with year-end rebalancing to provide recommendations on their picks of seven of the best stocks that in these pandemic times provide the best of both worlds -- the growth of equities and the safety of bonds.  You guessed it! It's their latest list, from yesterday's edition, of the highest paying dividend stocks in the S&P.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Wall Street hits highs as slowing job growth spurs stimulus bets

It was very much a “bad news actually equals good news” day on Wall Street as the hoped-for grim jobs report created big optimism for a greater likelihood of a stimulus bill sooner rather than later. The stimulus being seen as essential for the economic recovery boosted the cyclical stocks substantially and shot the Dow consistently upward all day to close 248 up.  Positive vaccine updates also boosted hopes for a quicker recovery. Volume was again right in line with the already significantly elevated 4-week average at 11.4 billion. 

Nasdaq hits record high, S&P 500 ends lower

Both the Nasdaq and S&P hit records today (though the S&P closed below that record) as it was another vaccine-on day with optimism boosting the airline index 4% and cruise index 8% as hopes for normalizing the economy increased. This was despite the fact that Pfizer slowed things down a bit with an announcement about supply chain obstacles to the vaccine rollout, but this was balanced by a drop in unemployment benefits though it still remains huge at 712,000.  The Dow gained 85, the Nasdaq 27 and volume was again right in line with the 4-week average at 11.5 billion. 

S&P 500 hits record as investors await fiscal deal

The Dow was in the red most of the day but then revived after 2 pm to close up 59 points. Yesterday’s optimism over the new bipartisan relief package got shot down today but Hoyer expressed hope that a bill could be passed “in the next few days.” Meanwhile, the market is hoping for bad news on the employment front this Friday as an added inducement for the Congress to pass this relief bill.  Recovery optimism is still very much in play as the rotation from growth to value continues in earnest. Volume was very much in line with the 4-week average at 11.6 billion. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq end at record highs on vaccine optimism

Yesterday was a vaccine-off day; today it was back to vaccine-on as the markets bet on how quickly a vaccine would be available and how that might speed economic recovery. There was also positive global data with China’s factory activity being at its fastest pace in a decade along with several other countries. Unfortunately, the U.S. saw lost momentum in November. This was balanced by news from the Congress that a $908 billion relief package was in the works. In the end, all three indexes gained, the Dow by 185 points. Volume was considerably above the already elevated 4-week average at 13.5 billion. 

S&P 500 ends down after rallying to best November ever

Today’s 271 point drop in the Dow was attributed among other things to a sell off from the substantial November rallies, month-end rebalancing of portfolios as the rotation from growth to value continues, and a lower than expected brick-and-mortar holiday shopping weekend, though online sales broke records. But there also can be no doubt that it was also a pandemic on/vaccine off day as the market grows more cautious about the spike upon the spike that’s experts predict in the weeks leading to Christmas due to an abundance of Thanksgiving travel (though it was less than half the usual holiday travel so more Americans than not still heeded the CDC travel advisory.)  Volume was way up at 15 billion but cannot be trusted since it was artificially elevated due to the end-of-month rebalancing. We’ll get a better picture tomorrow when we’ll also get more clarity from the Fed.  

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 11.27.20 (plus The Strange Last Days of Steve Bing)

Below is the weekly summation after this long holiday weekend. The main positive is that, three weeks after the election, the Biden transition has officially now begun, hopefully clearing the way for a smoother than expected transfer of power. The main negative is that a relief bill is still not forthcoming leaving a record 26 million Americans without funds to buy even essential basics like food. This weekend I could only find downbeat articles about the growing pandemic and the post-election chaos. 

The Complete Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio

For your weekend reading I once again offer the latest edition of U.S. News Invested, which this week contains the detailed rundown of the 47 holdings in Warren Buffett's portfolio. I'd say that a review of these 47 frames would be well worth anyone's time. Enjoy the final day of this very pleasant holiday weekend before the ravages of winter set in on Monday.  

Wall St. gains, Nasdaq hits record high as holiday shopping begins

Black Friday turned out to be a surprisingly mixed day of both pandemic worries and vaccine optimism as Britain gave AstraZeneca the thumbs up despite questions over their trial data and Black Friday sales, though tarnished, still reached a record for online sales. This was balanced by the Nasdaq closing at a record high boding well for a good December market while hospitalizations also set a record at over 89,000.  So there was plenty of up and down with the close up a very modest 37 points. Given the holiday and a short Friday session, volume was quite light at 6.8 billion. 

Medicare Pandemic Changes

Happy Thanksgiving everyone and, if there's one thing that we can all be thankful for in this pandemic year is that we all still have our health (and hopefully none of you who are reading this have tested positive).  In the spirit of this and the major objective of keeping our health, I thought it appropriate on this Thanksgiving to share today's edition of the PBS program WealthTrack, which bring us all up to date on the status of Medicare (for all us retirees) in this pandemic age.  Enjoy the remainder of your long holiday weekend.  

Stocks dip on U.S. jobs data; dollar down, oil up

After two days of vaccine optimism the markets reverted back to pandemic worries when investors considered the downside of Yellen as Treasury Secretary (good funding = bad dollar) and some negative economic news on the surprising jump in jobless claims and unemployment. And with the daily COVID-19 death toll exceeding 2,000 for the first time since May, the Dow dropped 173 points. Volume, though a little below the already substantially elevated 4-week average, was nonetheless also, at nearly 10.8 billion, considerably higher than we usually see prior to a major holiday. Happy Thanksgiving everyone! We’re getting a day off from watching those charts. 

Dow scales 30,000 on vaccine headway, Biden transition

The Dow went past 30,000 today for the first time in history, soaring 454 points due to a second day of vaccine optimism and a greenlight to begin the Biden transition, two major steps toward relieving market uncertainty on the pandemic and election. For the second day there was the hoped for rotation from the pandemic-safe tech stocks to the more sensitive cyclical stocks, signaling a positive outlook for 2021. As summed up by today’s expert, “If 2020 has shown us anything it is that stock markets have a tremendous ability to look past bad news if there is sun on the horizon.” At nearly 14.2 billion, volume was huge.

Cyclical gains lift stocks, Yellen news gives brief boost

The market has been wavering back and forth between pandemic worries and vaccine optimism. Today was a vaccine trade day with all three indexes in positive territory, the Dow up 327 points. Two big boosters: Astra Zeneca announced a third vaccine, this one 90% effective, and Biden announced Janet Yellin as the new Treasury Secretary creating new optimism for the next stimulus package which Mnuchin dampened last week. Overall, it was another major move from the pandemic-safe tech stocks to the more cyclical value stocks, and any moves along those lines reflect optimism for a recovery. Volume will be lighter than usual this week due to the holiday – but not today, going above the 4-week average at 12.1 billion shares traded.  

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.20.20 (plus The Biggest Stock Market Reversal In History)

Below is the end-of-week weekly summation, the main positives being vaccine progress and an all but exhausted panoply of election litigation options. The main negatives remain the spiraling infection and death rates combined with Trump's unprecedented efforts to overturn the vote. The bonus this Sunday night is a very instructive graphic posted today on The Big Picture blog showing the historical relationship between intrayear drawdowns and yearly returns. Even though the two usually correlate (that is big drawdowns translate to big negative returns), this chart shows the years since 1929 when they did not correlate.  And 2020 is at the top of the list.  It's the biggest stock market reversal in history. And welcome to winter as we just had our first measurable snow for the year. It's still too early to put on the snow tires though. 

WINNING THE LOSER’S GAME

For your weekend reading pleasure I once again submit this week's segment of the PBS program Wealth Track, hosted by Consuelo Mack. The topic this time is, in a word, "timeless," as she discusses Timeless Investment Strategies with one of Wall Street's foremost experts on the subject, Charles Ellis. His thesis is that investing can be simple and the 7th 2017 edition of his book, "Winning the Loser's Game," tells all about it. The 8th edition will be available next May.  You can start with this book, or you can start with this 25 minute program.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Wall Street closes lower as surging COVID-19 cases offset vaccine hopes

For a fourth day pandemic worries overshadowed vaccine optimism as the Dow took a dive straight down all day ending the session 219 down with the consensus remaining that “this is likely to continue until we have an approved and distributed vaccine.” Adding to the day’s anxiety is a tug of war triggered by Mnuchin between the Fed and the Treasury over relief lending, Mnuchin announcing that he will expire the Fed’s lending programs at the end of the year. These two institutions are supposed to work together rather than compete and could have “serious implications.” Another tough news item was the WHO advising that remdesivir should not be used as evidence of its effectiveness is lacking. Volume remains high and exactly in line with the 4-week at 10.7 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher as new stimulus talks ease shutdown worries

The Dow spent most of today’s session almost 150 down as once again spiraling pandemic and shutdown worries dominated vaccine optimism, though late in the session there was some added hope when news came from the Congress that stimulus negotiations could begin again soon, which in turn sent the market back up again to close 44 up. But investors today once again fled the value scene and transferred wealth back to the ever reliable tech sector, the only sector not to be overly impacted by shutdowns. But rising unemployment and a hospitalization rate soaring by a whopping 50% kept a predictable lid on things. 472 S&P companies have now reported in for Q3 and nearly 85% have beaten estimates. Volume remains very brisk at nearly 11 billion. 

Wall Street dives as shutdown worries overshadow vaccine hopes

For the second day, virus worries have overtaken vaccine optimism with the Dow spiraling downward 344 points. This is despite the fact that Pfizer, following Moderna’s really good news, had its own good news that the latest tests for its vaccine show that it’s also 95% effective. But the scales tipped toward the virus today with the news of record levels of infections and continuing lockdowns. Q3 is almost over. 468 companies of the S&P 500 have now reported with almost 85% beating estimates. Volume was again quite high and above the 4-week average at 11.4 billion.  

Wall Street closes lower as shutdown worries loom

It didn’t take a Warren Buffett to predict that consumer spending would be down in the midst of this raging pandemic with no stimulus in sight. Yet when the Commerce Dept released its retail sales report today showing spending decelerating, it nevertheless sent the markets decelerating. So much for these things already being priced in. And the consensus is that we’d better get used to this up and down, this flip-flop. Until the vaccine is rolled out and is proven effective, the market is going to be “vaccine versus the virus.” Q3 is wrapping up with 465 companies now reporting and nearly 85% beating estimates. And despite today’s retail sales report, giant retailers Walmart, Home Depot, and Kohls all turned in glowing reports. Volume remains high at nearly 10.5 billion. 

S&P 500, Dow close at all-time highs on reignited vaccine hopes

It was another big 3-digit day as Wall Street bet on a 2021 that would be post-pandemic given the breaking news of now a second vaccine from Moderna that looks even more promising than the Pfizer vaccine announced last week. Yet despite the long-term outlook, there remains serious concern of this enormous new spike and the damage it could do to the economy before we are in the post-pandemic period six to twelve months from now. But on optimism that could be a full year coming, the Dow jumped 470 points. Tuesday we get the retail sales data which will tell us how the consumer is doing in this withering recovery sans a new stimulus package. Volume was strong at 10.9 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.13.20 (plus the AAII on Dollar Cost Averaging)

Below is the usual weekly summary, the main positives being the new vaccine proving 90% effective and subsequently the markets continuing to move higher. The main negative as always is the record high levels of COVID that just continue to move higher. The bonus this Sunday evening is a revisit of an AAII article I missed last month but rediscovered this weekend, all about Dollar Cost Averaging as an investment strategy, one of my personal favorite strategies that has always proven to not only be very easy but also very low risk and reasonably profitable. It's a good review for those of you already familiar; an essential primer for those who are not.  We ended the weekend with some horrible weather but looking for better in the week ahead.  Enjoy the week ahead. 

Recording of AAII Seminar on O'Neil by Amy Smith 11/10/20

For those of you who missed it, for those of you who attended but may not have received the YouTube link, below is the recording of the Amy Smith Zoom seminar on O'Neil as given by the AAII at the meeting this week 11/10/20.  It was scheduled for 2 hours but she actually managed to encapsulate the entire IBD approach to investing in just one. 

S&P boasts record close with earnings reports adding to vaccine fueled optimism

For some time now, vaccine news has been driving the market. Yesterday was the exception when there was no news, good or bad, that satisfied anyone. But today we got back to the normal routine that vaccine news is driving the market and that combined with good earnings news propelled the Dow up another 399 points. The spurt back into the conventional sectors of energy, real estate, and industrials was a clear indication of “optimism around the economy.”  It also pacified investors with the Biden news that there are no plans for a national lockdown in 2021.  Still, the sentiment remains (as validated today by the Fed) that the spike in COVID cases will damage the economy unless there is a suitable stimulus package. The good news is that 90% of S&P companies have reported now for Q3 and the profit estimates are now for a 7.8% contraction rather than the 21.4% forecast in October. Volume was right in line with averages with nearly 9.9 billion shares traded. 

Wall Street ends sharply lower as pandemic fears resurge

Once again there was a major sell off as the markets grapple with the reality that the vaccine is still a ways off and, meanwhile, there’s a raging pandemic to deal with.  All sectors lost, tech and value together, as investors cope with “the reality is that we don’t know what the new normal is going to look like.”  The Dow sank 317 with the Nasdaq and S&P also plummeting. The good news is that, despite the day’s drop, the week has been kind with the S&P gaining almost 2 percent this week.  (And perhaps the news tonight of Moderna’s promising new treatment was announced after the closing bell; perhaps then a rally tomorrow?) 10.3 billion shares changed hands putting volume on par with the elevated trading that’s been going on the past four weeks. 

Nasdaq closes higher with technology stocks back in favor

It was a seesaw day, up a hundred for much of the day, then down a hundred in late session, then recovering to close down a very modest 29 points. The trend of the last two days to abandon the glitzy pandemic tech stocks in search of value got reversed today as investors scrambled to get back into tech and growth with the sentiment being that “we’ll probably have these fits and starts of the rotation until we get into the spring.” There remains greater optimism for the longer view of the economy post pandemic.  The chip index rallied 3.7% while the value index lost ground. Volume, though sharply down from the last two days, was still very much in line with the 4-week average at 9.6 billion. 

Nasdaq retreats as technology stocks lose favor

For the second day, with the good news regarding the presidential election being settled and a promising vaccine on the move, the market again responded by enthusiastically moving away from the pandemic-benefiting tech stocks to the more traditional value stocks.  The sentiment is that if the economy can reopen sooner rather than later the “stay-at-home” stocks won’t be as valuable. Amazon, Facebook and Microsoft all fell while the S&P value index gained 1.3 percent. Investors have by and large been ignoring Trump’s election outcome complaints. The only downside to the news is that the vaccine progress dims the prospects for another multi-trillion dollar relief bill, something small businesses and the unemployed desperately need.  With the Dow boosted another 262 points, volume was again way above average at 12.6 billion. 

Wall Street rallies on coronavirus vaccine trial results

With the elimination of election uncertainty over the weekend, I knew there was going to be a rally today but had no idea it was going to be in the quadruple digits. Up over 1300 points as late as 2 pm, the Dow settled in the final two hours to still close a whopping 834 up. It was the double boost of the Biden victory combined with what was arguably even better news about some terrific promise on the vaccine front as Pfizer announced their new vaccine had tested very well and would be ready for distribution by the end of the year. With the worst case scenario suddenly now looking quite a bit less likely, buying soared, especially with all the traditional stocks that had been taking a beating during the pandemic. Conversely, the tech stocks that had been doing well during lockdown now took a hit as reflected in the Nasdaq diving 181 points. And the end of the day dive was only the result of McConnell saying that election investigations would continue. But the stocks hardest hit in the last nine months (i.e. airlines and cruise lines) all surged, Carnival up over 39 percent. The best news is that volume was enormous at 17.2 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.6.20 (plus Working With William O'Neil)

After this extraordinary week, below is the summation, the main positive being the strong rally the markets had, the main negative that, at least as of 4:30 p.m. Friday when this was published "WTF, this still isn't over yet?"  Alas, a mere 19 hours later it was over and we should see relief sweeping the markets Monday since the biggest fear was that it wouldn't be over. The big bonus this Sunday night is a final heads-up on the free AAII Zoom webinar "Working With William O'Neil" that takes place this Tuesday night 11-10-20 from 7-9 pm.  You must be registered to view it. I will try to do a Screen Record from my video editing software and, if it's not made available by the AAII on YouTube (which it probably will be), I will put it up on YouTube myself if I can get a good recording.  Stay tuned. 

Powerful Macro Forces

This week's edition of the PBS program Wealth Track is a pretty good summary of how this week's election has impacted and is expected to continue to impact the markets.  

Wall Street ends little changed, posts big weekly gain on Washington gridlock hopes By Chuck Mikolajczak

There was a 200 point sell off right out the gate (profit takers?) that almost immediately reversed itself as buyers came back into the picture for a third consecutive day of optimism that the tight election will result in a divided Congress that will make it difficult for a President Biden to pass large parts of his agenda. However, this all depends on the Republicans keeping the Senate and there could still be major surprises up ahead if the Democrats prevail in the four undecided races, something currently considered improbable but not at all out of the realm of possibility. Unemployment dropped sharply in October to just under 7% but job recovery remains painfully slow in the absence of fiscal support. After the early morning sell off, the Dow gained steadily all day to close at 66 down and volume remains unusually high at just under 10.4 billion. 

Wall Street rallies on bets for divided U.S. Congress, Fed holds steady

For the second day, the markets continue to take solace in the tight election as a forecast of a divided Congress in which the economic and business status-quo will remain essentially unchanged. That’s what investors want, for the markets to keep going the way they’ve been, hopefully get more stimulus, definitely keep the Fed’s monetary policy loose. Tech and industrials will continue to be winners.  So for the second day, there was a big boost, today 542 points on the Dow. The Nasdaq gained over 2% coming close to its September record; the S&P was boosted by a 4.4% surge in the tech index. Volume was way above the 4-week average at 10.4 billion.  

Stocks jump as Wall Street thinks tight U.S. election means gridlock

Even though a quick decisive outcome has been the market’s Wish #1 for some time now, investors actually took comfort today in the tightness of the race.  Translation: a divided congress means no major policy changes. A Biden presidency would likely see a similar economy with the same winners as before. Thus the Dow bolted up, some 700 points shortly after noon but then settled to close 367 up.  The session saw the biggest daily percentage gain in the S&P since June 5 and for the Nasdaq since April 14.  There was also the usual boost from a prompt outcome triggering an expected new stimulus deal. The VIX is now at a two week low and volume was considerably above average at nearly 10.4 billion. 

Wall Street closes sharply higher on U.S. Election Day stimulus hopes

The polls had only been open for 2-1/2 hours when the market opened and the fact that everything was going peacefully and smoothly for the most part boosted confidence. There is the sudden added confidence that results may be known sooner than expected and that a quick resolution heightens the likelihood of a swifter stimulus deal bolted the Dow up 554 points. The VIX even hit a one week low. Investors are already starting to feel more relaxed. Volume was pretty much in line with the 4-week average at 8.9 billion. 

Wall Street rises but market braced for choppy week on eve of U.S. election

With all the volatility that’s expected this week, combined with the markets last week having their biggest decline since March, investors jumped on the band wagon to buy on the dip and pushed the Dow up 423 points. This may be the last rally until a victor is declared, an outcome considered very unlikely for tomorrow. But for those who are bettors, the ones going for a Biden victory boosted solar stocks and smalls caps while the Trump bets went to the financial sector.  But Clorox had a good day having their best sales growth in two decades during Q3. There was such a huge demand for their products that bleach and wipes were constantly sold out.  I can personally testify that I had to wait until June before I was able to purchase a Clorox product. They couldn’t get them out of the factory fast enough. But it’s going to be a tough week. Brace for more dips. Volume at 9.0 billion was almost exactly in line with the 4-week average. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 10.30.20 (plus Inside the Wild Stock Market)

It's Sunday night and below once again is the weekly summation, the main positives that Q3 GDP growth rising 33% (after falling 31.4% in Q2, so we're even again) and early voting setting records. The main negatives, as always, are the COVID spikes which this week includes the new lockdowns in Europe and the worst weekly market sell off since June.  The bonus this Sunday night is a prescient article from Medium that offers an explanation for the crazy stock market ride we're on and how election junkies can turn it into profits.  

Mario Giannini on the Art of Investing

Now here's something that's really spooky for Halloween.  From today's posting on Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture blog, I give you a one-hour podcast on everything you need to know about the Art of Investing from the CEO of the private equity firm Hamilton Lane, a firm overseeing $500 billion in privately invested assets. So let's see what a guy with this kind of a track record has to say. There's a blue moon out there right now so there's no better time to listen to it.  Enjoy!  

Tech slide hits Wall Street as coronavirus cases spiral

What a wild ride today with the Dow down 700 points at times but recovering in the last hour to recover all but 157. Lately it’s been the triple threat of stimulus-COVID-election. Today add a fourth threat – overbought tech!  That’s what happened today. It’s been reported since the start of the pandemic that tech is a safe haven since demand for it has grown with everyone stuck at home. Today the market decided that the whole sector is overvalued and about to be repriced; thus Apple, Facebook and Amazon all took a hit today. And it doesn’t help matters that today the infection rate passed the 9 million mark and the VIX hit a 20-week high, up from 15 weeks yesterday. The S&P has now fallen 9.7% from its September high and Apple reported its steepest drop in iPhone sales in two years. The bright spot remains Q3. At the halfway mark 86.2% of companies have beaten estimates and the profits forecast has again been upgraded, today to a 10.3% reduction versus Wednesday’s 14.8 percent.  Nerves continue to be frayed so volume is once again way above average at 10.3 billion as everyone sells as a hedge against possible bad news on Tuesday.  

Wall Street rebounds as market eyes tech results, strong U.S. data

The market was looking ever so desperately for some signs of hope today and found enough to boost it 139 points as good economic reports calmed jitters about coronavirus. The economy grew at a record pace in Q3 (but of course, it started at rock bottom), unemployment claims fell and tech giants Amazon and Alphabet had good Q3 revenue supporting the notion that tech companies have benefited from people being stuck at home during the pandemic. But nerves are still frayed as reflected in the VIX surging to a 15 week high. At least volume has returned to a normal average of 9.7 billion versus yesterday’s enormous 11 billion. 

Wall Street sinks 3%, Dow at late July lows as pandemic surges

Nope!  The markets are not quite ready to calm down yet, not with this perfect trifecta of no stimulus, coronavirus spiraling, and election uncertainty. They were hoping Monday was the worst of it but, truly, it’s just going to keep going until the election is settled. And the chances of it being settled before next Friday are slim. The short-sellers are going to make out on this one. Twelve states have set hospitalization records, Germany and France are going into another lockdown, and as today’s expert says, “Obviously the virus is out of control.”  The Dow was going down all day, down almost 700 by 3:30, then dove more than 200 more points in the final half hour due to concerns that there will be no declared winner come Tuesday night, adding to worries that the election might be contested, for a long while now considered the worst-cast scenario.  Even tech lost today. The good news:  Q3 continues to go better than expected and today was upgraded again from a 16.2% loss yesterday to a 14.8% loss today.  Volume, which has been running below average for some time now was way above average today at 11 billion. Yes! Everyone’s nervous! 

S&P 500, Dow slip on worries about earnings, U.S. stimulus outlook

It was another sell off today, again by the combo of lack of stimulus, rising coronavirus, and election uncertainty, but at least today not nearly as severe as yesterday with the Dow losing 222 points and tech even leading the Nasdaq to a gain of 72 points. The fear gauge rose to its highest level in nearly two months on election jitters, mainly due to some battleground states getting closer to a draw.  The Q3 earnings forecast has again been revised upwards to now a 16.2% loss.  Volume was 8.2 billion, again below the 4-week average as more investors stay on the sidelines awaiting more positive news and less uncertainty. 

Wall Street closes down on soaring virus cases, U.S. stimulus worries

It’s the same old story – the fall of stimulus and the rise of COVID-19, except that today investors took it a lot more seriously and drove all three indexes down, the Dow a whopping 650 points. In a word used by today’s expert, investors are “unnerved.” The good news is that all the uncertainty is keeping everyone on the sidelines so volume remains on the light side at 8.7 billion as it has been as reflected in the 4-week average of 8.9 billion.  The fear gauge is at a 7 week high but with Q3 heading into its busiest week, 139 S&P companies have reported with 83% beating estimates. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.23.20 (plus Biden’s and Trump’s Tax Plans)

Below is the usual weekly summation, the main positives being that stimulus talks continue and jobless claims fell.  As usual, the main negative is the continuing rapid spikes in COVID cases, particularly in rural areas.  The bonus this Sunday night is a very good article from this week's Barron's explaining in detail the similarities and differences between the two candidates' tax plans.  Hope everyone got through the chilly and wet weekend.  

WORKING WITH WILLIAM O’NEIL

Just a little heads-up on an upcoming AAII webinar with IBD's Amy Smith on Tuesday, November 10th at 7 p.m. Since it's on ZOOM, attendance is limited to 300 so preregistration is required. However, if registration exceeds the maximum, a recording of the webinar will be made available.  Two week's notice here. 

S&P, Nasdaq close higher as stimulus talks in spotlight

A perfect V-shaped curve today with the Dow dropping 200 points by around noon, and then recovering most of the 200 during the afternoon to close down just 28 points.  It dove because of angst over stimulus negotiations and then rose because of hope over the same. So yesterday’s claim that the market is now ignoring this issue is evidently premature as it appears to still be very much in play and very much influencing the ups and downs. A record 50 million Americans have now cast ballots and the consensus is that Thursday’s debate did not move the needle. Q3 moves steadily along with today 135 of the S&P companies having reported and 84% beating estimates. At 7.8 billion, volume remains below the 9.0 billion 4-week average. 

Wall Street closes higher, trade choppy as U.S. stimulus talks eyed

Wall Street has pretty much gotten to the point of ignoring the stimulus debates now, weary of the on-again off-again nature of the negotiations but still confident there will eventually be a package. So today it was not the talk of “pretty soon” that starting the market upward but the news of fewer Americans filing for unemployment than expected that boosted the Dow 154 points.  About 20% of S&P companies have now reported with 84% beating estimates. Volume was 8.8 billion, still below the 4-week average.

S&P ends choppy session lower as U.S. stimulus talks drag on

A very choppy session that was up almost 150 early in the morning and up almost 50 in the final hour only to come crashing down again to close almost a hundred in the red, all revolving around hopes for a stimulus deal before it became obvious in the late afternoon that there would be no deal today. There is still hope that a deal can be reached Thursday and investors remain very optimistic that there will be a deal shortly after the election. As for Q3, 84 companies have reported with nearly 86% beating estimates. Volume was 8.8 billion, still below the 4-week average. 

Wall Street shares end higher on stimulus optimism

Yesterday they said that Tuesday was the last day that it was possible to reach agreement on stimulus and pass it in time for the election. Today they announced they were close and could possibly have a deal by the end of the week. Though it ran contrary to yesterday’s, it was enough to shoot the Dow up another 113 points, recovering some of yesterday’s big sell off.  The antitrust suit against Google fell on deaf ears; not only is no one taking it seriously but it actually boosted Alphabet’s stock by 1.4 percent. Q3 now has 66 companies reporting with 86% beating forecasts. 8.7 billion shares were traded. 

Wall Street closes lower as stimulus deadline nears without deal

Today it was a triple play of doubts on stimulus, doubts on controlling the sharply rising cases of coronavirus and doubts about a contested election that drove the all three indexes down, the Dow down 410 points. While the stimulus is a minor concern with investors confident that there will be a package sooner or later, there are grave concerns about the pandemic spiraling upwards and whether Trump will accept the election if he loses. COVID cases rose 13% last week, the highest since the summer peak. The fear gauge is up for the sixth straight session.  But volume remains below the 4-week average at 8.7 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 10.16.20 (plus The 200 Year History of U.S. Interest Rates)

Here we go again with the weekly summation, the main positive being increasing signs of a decisive election result, the big negative remaining that jobless claims continue to rise (and, of course - the historic first! -- in 7 decades of televised presidential debates, the first ever to be canceled.) The bonus this Sunday is another cool little graphic that puts things into badly needed perspective -- a visual on the 200 year history of interest rates in the United States.  Enjoy and hope you all enjoyed your weekend.  

Recession? Pandemic? Neither Are Stopping Businesses Starting

For this chilly October weekend, I thought it would be appropriate to provide a graphic that should warm everyone's cockles. Despite all the dire news about the damage that the pandemic has caused to the economy overall and to businesses in particular, here is a very telling chart that demonstrates that the business environment is not in nearly as dire shape as thought.  This was posted this morning on Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture blog site.  So relax and have a glass of wine on the house.  

Dow advances, S&P ekes out gain as vaccine timeline comes into focus

The Dow and S&P broke their three day losing streak and all three indexes posted gains for the week. Today’s impetus was Pfizer’s announcement that their vaccine might be ready for U.S. authorization as soon as the end of November which gave the market a much wanted timeline and sent Pfizer’s stock up almost 4 percent. Other good news included retail sales zooming past forecasts and the unexpected surprise of consumer confidence not just holding steady but actually going up despite some dire potential outcomes.  Q3 is just getting underway with 49 companies reporting and 86% of these beating forecasts, though admittedly the forecasts have all set a low bar. Volume was again below average at 8.8 billion. 

S&P 500 ends lower as investors eye stimulus impasse

The Dow initially dove about 300 points out the gate but then spent the rest of the session recovering to close almost even. The drop was triggered by new unemployment claims reaching a two-month high and thus compounding economic recovery worries that have been further exacerbated by the lack of a stimulus package to help the unemployed. As today’s expert said, “it will be difficult for unemployment to make a lot of positive headway because of the lack of stimulus.” Indexes dipped for a third straight day. The positive news is that the market is more focused now on the potential benefits that a Biden presidency would bring rather than the fear of tax hikes.  But the market is much more interested in the election producing a definitive victor rather than who wins. Another positive development is that the Q3 earnings forecast has been upgraded to a 19% loss from the 25% tumble estimated on July 1^st. Volume remains below average at 8.1 billion. 

Wall Street ends down after Mnuchin dims stimulus hopes

It was another day of sell off jitters that brought all the indexes down as much as yesterday when Mnuchin commented that a stimulus deal before the election was unlikely. The good news is that the stimulus has already been priced into the market so it’s really just a question of how much and when. But there remains great confidence that it will happen. B of A, Wells Fargo and United Health all dropped today with Q3 but despite that the Q3 earnings forecast has again been upgraded from a 19.6% loss yesterday to a 19.0% loss today. After only a handful of companies reporting, the forecast has already been upgraded from 21% to 19% or nearly 10 percent. Volume remains below average at 8.2 billion. 

Wall Street closes lower on vaccine delay, dampened stimulus hopes

One person in the vaccine trials gets sick so there’s a temporary halt which will likely last just a week or two. And the White House’s trimmed down stimulus package got rejected by the Democrats as being woefully inadequate for addressing the key problems. And even though both JP Morgan and Citigroup turned in Q3 reports that beat estimates, low interest rates dropped their respective share values. Add it all up and it amounted to all three indexes in the red, the Dow down 157 points. The further illogic behind today’s sell off is that, despite the two giant banks losing share value, the Q3 forecast has been changed today from a 21% loss in earnings to a 19.6% loss.  Coming later this week will be reports from giants BofA, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, United Health Group, United Airlines, Morgan Stanley and Honeywell.  Volume is still below average at 8.5 billion. 

Apple and Amazon drive rally on Wall Street By Noel Randewich

Tech lead once again with Amazon and Apple pushing all three indexes substantially northward, the Dow up 250. There remains optimism over some sort of pandemic relief bill and investors are increasingly warming to the prospect of a Biden presidency. The odds-makers according to RealClearPolitics now put the bets favoring a Biden win at 2 to 1. Q3 starts this week with two of the biggest banks reporting Tuesday. The forecast is for a 21% decline in earnings. But just like in Q2, the bar has been set so low that estimates will probably be beaten, which of course will send the market up. (It’s like they deliberately exaggerate earnings losses in order to force stock prices up. Has anyone ever done a study whether the analysts who makes these forecasts are buying like crazy just before reporting starts?)  Volume was again below average at 8.2 billion, but that would be expected just before Q3 data comes in. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.9.20 (plus How Your Media Diet Influences Your Views)

Below is the weekly summation, the positive being that the feared prospect of a contested election seems less and less likely; the main negative being -- WTF can't Trump just lay low for a few more days and get completely better? Plus there are the usual negatives that jobless claims came in above the forecast and job openings below the forecast. 

POWERFUL ECONOMIC COMEBACK

Here's something I knew few of you could resist -- a (gasp!) optimistic report on our economic outlook. That's why we watch PBS!  Top economist Nancy Lazar talks about why we are going to be back to pre-pandemic levels in record time. I'll just say that even her so-called "optimistic" prediction of a full recovery in just four years seems a bit long in the tooth. 

Wall Street finishes up as stimulus talks continue

Again we had another straight-up day with the Dow gaining 161 points, enough to drive the S&P and Nasdaq to their biggest weekly percentage gains in three months as optimism grew for a stimulus package. As today’s expert said, “The market’s reacting well to Trump’s sudden turnaround,” validating that trading is being driven by headlines on fiscal aid. Volume remains below average at 8.9 billion. 

Wall Street ends higher as Trump boosts hopes of stimulus

Compared to recent days it was a modest bump of 122 points on the Dow today as there was continued optimism over stimulus but very much tempered by weak labor numbers that showed the market was making little headway in getting the millions of pandemic-related unemployed back on the job. Meanwhile, investors are beginning to warm up to Biden, being very much more afraid of a contested election than of a Biden victory, only hoping that a Biden win will be decisive. Volume remains below the 4-week average at 8.9 billion. 

Wall Street ends higher on hope that partial coronavirus stimulus deal may occur

During market hours yesterday, Trump stated that he was killing the stimulus bill until after the election and the market sank 600 points. Then, after hours, he reversed course and urged the passage of another stimulus package. It’s like he watches the ticker tape and when he sees something he says driving the market down, he turns around and takes it all back. Anyway the Dow had a field day today surging 530 points on the reversal that gave investors new hope. Also helping the market was the new view, stated by today’s expert, that “focusing on the potential positives that would come from a Democratic White House and not the stereotypical negative view for the stock market that was maybe in vogue three months ago.”  Q3 reporting starts next week and S&P earnings are expected to contract 21 percent. Volume was below average at just under 9 billion. 

Wall Street ends down 1% after Trump calls off coronavirus economic relief talks

Just as good news yesterday boosted the Dow 465 points, some truly bad news (at least bad according to everyone from Wall Street to the Fed) sank the index 600 points (after an initial rally that ultimately closed the Dow down 375 points) when Trump announced that he had instructed Republican lawmakers to discontinue negotiations with the Democrats on the stimulus bill, thereby assuring there would be no stimulus until after the election (and then, he made clear, only if he wins; otherwise we’re looking at January!) Fed Chair Powell stated that “the domestic rebound could still slip into a downward spiral if the coronavirus is not effectively controlled and growth sustained.”  It was a shock to everyone and triggered a selling spree at above average volume of 10.5 billion. 

Wall Street gains as Trump to leave hospital, investors hope for stimulus

The prospect of Trump’s speedy recovery with the announcement that he would be returning to the White House today (which in fact happened at 6:37 p.m.), potential for the two parties to reach agreement on a stimulus bill, and the positive economic news of the services sector reaching and even exceeding pre-pandemic levels was more than enough to boost the Dow 465 points.  (I’m not sure how the new services data jives with the reality that so many small businesses, most of which are in the services sector, have gone bankrupt.) There remains considerable concern that Trump left the hospital too early as the doctors have been very clear that he is not at all out of the woods yet and they won’t have a better idea on that score until the end of this weekend.  Volume is below average at just under 8.5 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.2.20 (plus Making Big Purchases)

So here's the weekly summation, the main positives that the markets continue to stabilize and unemployment continues to decline.  The main negative, of course, is Trump testing positive for COVID and, unfortunately, this went to press before the news broke on Friday of his hospitalization. Since the late news tonight is that he may be sent home as early as tomorrow, suggesting they may be releasing him too early, who knows how the market might react tomorrow?  

Today's AAII Zoom Webinar on Taxation In Retirement

 Today's AAII Zoom webinar on Taxation In Retirement was canceled to a defective Zoom link.  Stay tuned for an announcement regarding rescheduling.  Meanwhile, enjoy the (wet) weekend.  

Wall Street closes sharply lower as Trump tests positive for coronavirus

The market opened today with the already overnight breaking news that Trump had contracted COVID-19. And the market immediately sank almost 300 points. But evidently investors didn’t find the news too surprising since there was also an almost immediate trend to the upside achieving full recovery shortly after noon.  News that the House had passed a stimulus package (though unlikely to be approved by the Senate) helped to the upside but then the employment news of only 661,000 new jobs added in September, below forecast and the slowest increase since May, put additional pressure to the downside to ultimately close the Dow down 134 points. We remain a long ways from regaining the 22 million jobs lost in this shutdown. Of course, the big elephant in the room is that the really big news of Trump in the space of less than 18 hours since announcing his infection with only mild symptoms to being taken to the hospital didn’t hit until after the market closed so Trump’s progress will be monitored very closely this weekend and who knows how the markets will react come Monday.  So there was much uncertainty today and that was reflected in the below average volume of 9.3 billion. 

Wall Street ends choppy session higher as stimulus hopes ebb and flow

It was a wild ride today with the Dow swinging back and forth hundreds of points to finally settle at a very modest 35 point gain as new hopes for a stimulus bill got tempered with disappointing data on jobless benefits and consumer spending. Yesterday we got a big boost from positive economic data, today a whipsaw from lukewarm numbers. Everyone continues running to big tech for safety. Q3 reporting starts in two weeks with the forecast of a 21% drop in S&P earnings. Nobody’s holding their breath on Congress anymore. Volume was again a little below average at 9.5 billion.   

Wall Street closes higher as stimulus talks progress

There was surprisingly good economic news today which shot the Dow up a big 329 points as both employment and new home sales came in way above expectations. This added to promising developments in stimulus talks wrapped September with the first monthly decline since March but ending Q3 with gains, the S&P especially having its biggest two-quarter winning streak in 11 years, the Nasdaq in 20 years.  Volume was modestly above the 4-week average at just under 10.4 billion. 

Wall Street closes lower, ending three-day rally ahead of U.S. presidential debate

A 3-digit loss to the low end on the Dow today with the index shedding 131 points as investors were selling ahead of the first presidential debate assuming it will move the market in the morning. But despite this fence-sitting, the good news were the Goldman-Sachs analysts who concluded that a Democratic win, even a big win like a sweep, would benefit the market and, better yet, no matter who wins, the market will be fine. Because of the fence-sitting, volume was again below the 4-week average at 8.3 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher as energy, financials lead broad rally

It was another big 3-digit day as the Dow rose 410 points as bargain hunters got back on a buying spree. And even though September will almost certainly end with the indexes having their first monthly loss since March, both the S&P and Nasdaq are on their best two-quarter winning streaks in years – 11 for the S&P, 20 for the Nasdaq. This is despite the fact that this coronavirus triggered recession is about to enter its ninth month.  Volume was below the 4-week average at 8.7 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.25.20 (plus 8 Best Consumer Staples Stocks)

Below is the weekly summation, the main positive being that the markets began the recovery from the deep sell off, the main negative (besides the political news) being that jobless claims continue on the rise.  The bonus this Sunday night is the latest issue of U.S. News Invested.  When the stock market is unstable, the best place to be is in the so-called "defensive" stocks, that is the traditional conventional stocks that are the backbone of the economy -- industrials, utilities, real estate, consumer staples.  And courtesy of U.S. News Invested, this week we have a fresh list of the best and most highly rated stocks in that arena.  For your consideration ... 

7 Lessons We’ve Learned From Wall Street’s Greatest Thinkers

Once again from AAII we bring you another mini-course on investing, in this case 7 lessons from the best of Wall Street.  Take a look and see if it piques your interest in their stock screening service, a 6 month trial included with this lesson.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Wall Street ends higher as tech rally squashes virus fears, but S&P down for week

We had another 3-digit gain on the Dow with a big boost from tech proving once again that it remains the investment of choice.  After a month-long rout with both the Dow and S&P down for the fourth straight week, the great news today is the opinion of one expert, “The reality is that 2021 is going to be a much higher stock market and you’re probably going to see tech still lead the way.”  Tech is still seen as the one sector that will do well regardless of which way the pandemic swings. Today value was abandoned in favor of growth. But traditional risk-haven value stocks will always be the hedge on the down days.  Volume was below average at just under 8.9 billion. 

Wall Street closes up on tech rally despite mixed signs on economic rebound

It was a wild day of swing trading with the Dow down about 250 points in the morning and up about 350 in the afternoon to finally settle at a modest 52 point gain at close.  As today’s expert pointed out, market sentiment has sharply changed and “fear of missing out has turned into fear of losing.”  The everyday investor is being “rightfully punished” for thinking that you can just “buy stocks out of a hat thinking stocks only go up.”  Part of the buying was triggered by a new stimulus bill that could be voted on next week and the best home sales in 14 years.  Part of the selling was based on an increase in jobless benefits.  The good news per another expert is that “the economy is on a path to a powerful V-shaped recovery as seen in auto sales, the housing market and overall consumer spending. All of the inventory rebuilding is starting, all of the things you want to see are happening.”  The even better news is that “the VIX has not yet reached levels that would suggest a continued strong move to the downside.”  Volume was above average at just over 10.4 billion. 

Wall Street closes lower on fears of a slowing economy

It was another big rout today bringing the Dow down another 525 points with doubts over another stimulus package and dampened hopes for a fast recovery weighing heavily again on tech. The economy has recovered about 80% of its pre-pandemic activity but, without further stimulus, there will be no normalcy until a vaccine is here.  As today’s expert said, “We’re still doing it [heading for recovery] but the progress is way slower than it was in the first three months.”  Another expert said, “The longer we go without more stimulus, the harder it will be to sustain the gains in the economy.”  Good data showing gains in factories was outbid by bad data showing a slowdown in services.  Volume in today’s sell off was again way up at just over 10 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher on Amazon boost, despite economic worries

The markets had a little bit of a bounce back today with the Dow gaining 140 points even though the same problems that caused the big sell off yesterday are still very much in evidence – the likely delay in stimulus, the rising number of pandemic cases dampening the hopes for a fast recovery, and the fears of new lockdowns in Europe.  Perhaps the reason for today’s modest rally is best expressed by today’s expert, “These are short-term fears that will go away because I think there’s quite a bit of undertow to the upside.”  Still investors are bracing for increasing volatility from growing political uncertainty which has been greatly sharpened by the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Volume was down today to just under 8.7 billion shares traded. 

Wall St ends lower on lockdown fears, likely delay of stimulus

There was nothing but bad news today which explains why the Dow dumped 509 points, and as much as 900 during the session.  Worries about a second wave in Europe and the likelihood of no new stimulus until after the election, now virtually guaranteed by the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, concerns about the fate of the ACA and the implications for the healthcare sector and general election-related jitters, particularly the prospect of a delayed and contested outcome all contributed to market malaise. The VIX is way up, the S&P way down and once again flirting with correction territory. And decline was not just in tech today but also in the traditional value sectors.  All in all, nothing good to report and even volume was discouraging being unusually high at 10.6 billion, and we don’t have quadruple witching to blame for it this time. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 9.18.20 (plus 9-23-20 AAII Fund Strategy webinar)

Below is the usual weekly summation, the main positive being the continuing progress on pandemic vaccines and treatments, the main negative being still no stimulus package. The Sunday bonus this weekend is a heads up on an AAII one hour live webinar that will be held on Wednesday evening at 8:30 p.m.  The topic is "The Best 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4 Fund Strategy" and is being presented by Paul Merriman. Click on the link below to register. Have a great week! 

SOCIAL SECURITY MAXIMIZATION

For your weekend reading I bring back a familiar topic. As discussed on this recent segment of PBS's WealthTrack, here is the latest on how to maximize your Social Security benefits in your retirement and, since most of us are recent retirees, this should be valuable. Enjoy the rest of this beautiful weekend.  

Wall Street posts third week of declines as tech slide drags on

For the third day in a row the big sell off out of tech continues dropping the Dow another 244 points and the Nasdaq 117 marking a rapid decline since the peak on September 2^nd, the biggest weekly losing streak for all three indexes in a year. The consensus remains that it’s all just some very overdue profit-taking. There’s also some caution being exercised in light of the new spikes in coronavirus overseas hinting at the much feared second wave. (Is it really a second wave when the first wave never ended?)  Because today marked the quarterly expiration of options contracts, the so-called “quadruple witching” effect has volume greatly exaggerated at over 14 billion.  We’ll have to wait until Monday to find out what the real volume is.  Have a good weekend. 

Wall Street falls as tech sells off again, jobless claims still high

A stubbornly high jobless rate and the continuing rotation from tech to value brought the Dow down 130 points and the Nasdaq 140. The Nasdaq now down 10% from its recent record has now confirmed a correction that began September 2^nd. But as today’s expert points out, “They had an incredible last week of August and this is a rational profit-taking scenario at the moment.” The consensus remains that tech names will bounce back.  The Fed has outlined a litany of conditions that must be in place before they will declare the economy recovered and employment to be full. Among these are wage growth, workforce participation, and less disparities in minority joblessness.  Volume was again a little above the 4-week average at 9.7 billion. 

S&P 500 ends down after late reversal despite Fed's low-rate stance

The difference between yesterday and today was that yesterday the market opened up big, then fell to close at break-even.  Today the market was up big in the afternoon, then fell once again to close at break-even.  The gains were triggered by the Fed offering accommodative policy even more dovish than investors had hoped for.  The losses were triggered by the continuing rotation out of tech and into value.  Or as today’s expert said, “What you’re seeing is some profit-taking in the tech sector. That’s where the selling is.”  The good news is that the Dow Transportation Average, widely viewed as a barometer of the economy, was up almost 1% today.  Volume was a little above the 4-week average at 9.8 billion. 

S&P 500 ends higher on growing hopes Fed will stay accommodative

After a 300 point boost for the Dow right out the gate, investors abandoned the buying spree throughout the day ending the session at break-even. The Nasdaq and S&P did well though on optimism that the Fed’s last policy meeting before the election would end tomorrow with a continuing accommodation on inflation. There really was no good explanation given for the 300 point sell off after the morning high, just the good news about upcoming econ data expected to be positive and today’s news that factory output was way up for August.  Volume was again below the 4-week average at just under 9 billion. 

Wall Street closes broadly higher on deal news, vaccine hopes

It was another big boom today with the Dow gaining 327 points on widely exuberant investor optimism over progress on a vaccine, which of course translates into progress to getting back to pre-pandemic normals. Some rather aggressive merger-related news also stoked optimism that there was a hopeful future. After two straight weeks of losses, investors today bought heavily into both tech and value. Coming up will be the Fed’s final meeting before the election. Volume was below recent averages at 8.7 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events, 9.11.20 (plus 10 of the Best Stocks to Buy for 2020)

Below is the usual Sunday night weekly summation, the main positive being the quick recovery the markets made from the big sell off.  The big negative besides of course the expose of Bob Woodward's new book about Trump is that jobless claims have remained unchanged.  The markets have been volatile for quite a long time now but particularly so in the past few weeks.  In light of this, the bonus this Sunday is the latest edition of U.S. News Invested highlighting the ten best performing stocks for 2020, the perfect antidote for market instability.  Have a great week.  

AAII Guidelines for Adding and Removing Stocks Part 2

Last weekend I shared Part 1 of the recent AAII articles on selection and timing criteria for adding and removing stocks. This weekend I bring you Part 2 below.  As always you will need to be a member of AAII to access the full article, which I assume you all are, and it may be worth joining just for this mini-course on the key elements of trading.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Dow ends higher but Wall Street posts second straight weekly drop on tech slide

Fri 9-11-20

A 131 point gain on the Dow  put the tech sector in its biggest weekly decline since March so investors know that the nervousness is not yet over. But the optimists took the point of view that this happens once a month or so and that “these companies are doing well during the pandemic” so don’t be surprised when money comes back to them.  The consensus remains that the recent slump is merely a consolidation after “a stunning five month rally.”  Volume was 8.9 billion. 

Wall Street ends lower as tech struggles resume

It was another black day with three-digit losses for both the Dow and Nasdaq almost wiping out all of yesterday’s gains as investors once again fled from tech and the three big FAANG stocks Apple, Microsoft and Amazon all falling almost 3 percent.  Unemployment claims remain high and the new Republican led relief bill was killed in the Senate by Democrats for not being nearly enough.  McConnell today conceded that continued Republican control of the Senate is no longer a sure thing and volatility remains near a 3-month high.  The good news is that consensus remains that the recent sell off is more due to mere turbulence than any trend toward a deep slide.  And despite the sell offs, tech still remains up 24% for the year making it still the best bet. Volume was close to the 4-week average at 9.7 billion. 

Wall Street ends higher on tech rally to snap three-day skid

After three very down days, the indexes sprang back today with investors picking up major bargains in the tech companies with the big FAANG stocks rising by at least 3% each. The sentiment remains that these are companies that will be around whatever happens with COVID and, despite the scare that Japan’s SoftBank threw at the market last week, that tech isn’t going anywhere.  Growth stocks today outperformed value by more than 2 to 1.  Volume was a little below average at 8.9 billion. 

Stocks end lower as tech swoon persists, Tesla in historic drop

The big tech sell off of the past two weeks continued in earnest today with the Dow losing 632 points and the Nasdaq 465.  Investors are still digesting the very bad news broken last week that Japan’s Softbank manipulated the options market and thus deliberately artificially inflated tech valuations. Today alone tech dropped nearly 5% adding to the worst 3-day performance since mid-March.  The good news is that despite this slump, tech remains the best performer of the year.  The better news is that investors are realizing today that despite the options bets against tech, there were likely billions of dollars of long positions to hedge against the options so the damage may not be as bad as feared.  The bad news is that the infamous FAANG companies have lost more than a trillion dollars since September 2^nd.  Volume was above average at just under 10.5 billion.  

A Labor Day Special: 8 Personal Finance Lessons from Benjamin Franklin

 Happy Labor Day everyone! My computer gets more and more unstable by the hour so any day now I may have to put this blog on suspension, perhaps as early as tomorrow.  Meanwhile, Barry Ritholtz posted a number of interesting looking reads on his Big Picture blog today. I thought that considering what an accomplished entrepreneur Benjamin Franklin was, that the most fitting one for this holiday was the article on his personal finance lessons. At nearly 3,000 words it's a long read but worthwhile. I include the link to the other nine articles if anyone's interested.  Hope you enjoyed your final holiday of the summer.  At least the temps will be quite comfortable this week.  

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.4.20 (plus "The AAII Way" of Buy and Sell Rules)

Below is the weekly summation and though this is a holiday weekend and I would ordinarily do this at the end of the holiday, I'm doing it tonight since my computer's been flaky. I may not be able to do it Monday night. The positives are continued modest economic recovery with jobless claims, unemployment and layoffs all down from July.  The big negative of course was Thursday, the worst trading day since the March crash.  The bonus this Sunday is yet another informative article from the AAII this time on the AAII strategy for making rules for buying and selling, regardless of whether you're a short-term trader or buy-and-hold.  Have a great Labor Day!  

AAII Screening on Faber’s Unique Approach to Yield Investing

Welcome to Labor Day weekend and just in case you have nothing better to do for the holiday, I bring back our old friend Mebane Faber who wrote several of the books our mentor Bert Ward recommended for us in the FastTrack course we took 10 years ago next month. (Did we imagine we'd still be a "group" ten years later?) For your reading I submit a September 1st article from the AAII on Faber's approach to yield investing. The link can be accessed by members only but I assume since we all met in AAII and found the class through AAII and continued to network via AAII, that most if not all are members.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Wall Street ends lower as Nasdaq rout persists

The selloff continues, though not nearly as severe, in a wild ride today up over 200 first thing and then down over 500 before noon before recovering to even just shortly before close, then diving 159 points again.  So though it was another big down day, it still ended way above the session low. Yesterday was triggered by fears that tech might be overvaluated. Today was triggered by a report from Japan’s Softbank that this was in fact the case. The good news is that, though the selling was fierce, the market did stabilize. The jobs report showed that unemployment had improved to 8.4% from 10.2 in July but was neither strong enough to provide reassurances of a reliable recovery nor weak enough to make a dent in the stimulus package standoff in Congress.  There are fears that today is but a preview of the next two months heading into the election.  Volume was again way above the 4-week average at 11.3 billion.

Tech tumble jams Wall Street into reverse; sharpest fall since June

With the indexes breaking records day after day, it was only a matter of time before there was a pullback. And wouldn’t you know that the day would come just two days after the Dow finally broke through its February records, weeks after the S&P, months after the Nasdaq.  So today the naysayers who have been lamenting all along through this bull market that everyone was being entirely too optimistic like there were blinders on that didn’t recognize the pandemic and faltering economy finally got their way.  Of course, if you say every day that the market is going to crash, eventually you’re going to be right.  So all three indexes had big retreats today, the S&P and Nasdaq their worst since June 11, the Dow its worst since June 26^th.  Was it triggered by the extraordinarily high unemployment, or a new report showing a slowing in the services sector, or the fading prospects of the new stimulus or businesses reopening?  Or was it as today’s expert suggests it’s just another “rotation out of technology stocks. I don’t think it’s anything ominous.”  Ominous or not, it spooked the market in that volume was considerably above average at nearly 12 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher with defensive bets out front

Bouncy bouncy! First,we’re moving out of tech and into value, then back into value. Today it was back into both tech and value, tech for the bargains and value because of the string of good reports on the modest growth of business activity and employment.  With the Dow up 454 points today, the blue chips are now just 1.6% below their February record and the Nasdaq almost 23% above its pre-crisis record. But the big rotation today was into defensive stocks (utilities, consumer staples, and real estate) which become the safest bet when the rest of market is mellowing. Private payrolls did increase in August but not as much as forecast which is why, as usual, the big eyes are on Friday’s government jobs report, which is expected to reflect the hiring slowdown in July and August.  For once, volume was a little above average at 9.8 billion. 

S&P, Nasdaq close at record highs in tech-fueled rally

Investors rushed back into value today shooting the Dow up 215 points as tech continued its charge boosting the S&P and Nasdaq to still new highs. There is renewed optimism over the stimulus talks and factory activity expanded for the third month. Apple remains a leader with a 4% spike a day after their stock split and Zoom surged almost 41% as they begin converting some free accounts to paid subscriptions. Of course, there remains caution about continued volatility coming. Volume was near the average at just over 8.9 billion. 

Nasdaq ends higher while S&P 500 posts biggest August gain since 1986

After last week’s rotation from growth (tech) to value (the Dow), investors decided today to return to the conventional bet of focusing again on the tech companies that will do well regardless of the pandemic. So there was a reverse rotation today out of the Dow and back to tech with the Dow slumping 223 points as a result. This was likely triggered by the weekend news that coronavirus cases have now topped 6 million.  Last week caution favored value, today tech, referred to as the “old pandemic playbook.”  The S&P is now almost 4% above its pre-crisis record, the Nasdaq almost 20% as last week’s sell off suddenly made all these momentum stocks look more attractive. The S&P has seen a 35% gain since April, its strongest run since 1938.  The biggest winner was Aimmune Therapeutics, a maker of a peanut allergy treatment, which soared 171% after news that Nestle offered to buy them for $2 billion.  For once volume was above the 4-week average at 9.4 billion.