Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events 12.23.16

Okay, I'm a day late and a dollar short this week but I had a minor surgical procedure this morning (thankfully I got a good report) for which I spent the weekend in prep so I am just now getting to this.  But hey, it's Christmas week.  I'm taking the week off, if for no other reason that the doctor doesn't want me driving or doing anything that requires concentration for two days.  Also because I've earned it.  But even though it is a day late, I still offer last week's succinct summation for your consideration.  Have a Happy New Year!  See you next year.

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 12/16/16

Due to the holiday, I'll keep it brief this week and include only the usual succinct summation.  Not much to report, the internships interviews are going slow, but classes are quickly approaching in another six weeks.  My new computer is at long last up and running and it works beautifully except for three little bugs, hopefully to be fixed during the coming week, that are preventing an Internet connection so I'm still on the laptop.  I'm shooting for the New Year now for returning to daily postings.  Hope everyone had a great week and a Merry Christmas.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 12.9.16

I'm a day late but hopefully not a dollar short.  The fact is that though I had my required video interview completed last Tuesday (and it turned out quite smashing), I had to work night and day Tuesday through Friday to get it uploaded to the company's website and all my emails to inform them of my difficulty and requesting assistance (or options) went unanswered.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 12.2.16

So I have been keeping myself quite busy producing the ten minute video that is required for my CFP internship application to the company in Ann Arbor.  It is due on Thursday.  I am also still awaiting word on scheduling an interview in Southfield.  Beyond that I continue to study in preparation for entering the formal 14-month academic program in February.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.25.16

I last reported that I had been invited by an Ann Arbor financial services firm to apply for an open internship position there but they required a link to my LinkedIn account (which did not exist at the time) so I spent last weekend creating a fresh new LinkedIn profile.  I was finally able to submit my application on Tuesday and, no sooner did I click the "Submit" button, then I received an Auto-Response with further instructions on how to proceed.  Yes indeed it is a brave new world out there.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.18.16

Transferring the hundreds of video editing files that I have amassed over the years to the new pc has proven problematic so I continue to operate from the laptop this weekend.  But the week's succinct summary is again presented below for your review.  I have close to 500 GB of video files to transfer and then there is also the challenge of how to back them up as they are completely irreplaceable.  These are the tasks that occupy me as I continue my journey through the CFP.

Huge rally after Trump election

I am still awaiting word of my internship but, as of today, I have been officially approved for enrollment in the formal 12-month academic cohort program for the CFP that begins in February.  Meanwhile, I'm have difficulty transferring image files for my video editing program and now I can only archive them and hope they can be recovered later.  When I have solved this problem I can at long last set up my new pc and start working on videos again, something that has taken on a new meaning with the CFP as I am being considered for a financial firm that produces investment training videos, something that is very much up my alley.  I'm very excited about it.

Michigan: Home Sweet Home!

After two weeks in New York City and Philadelphia, I have returned to my sweet home state, so glad to learn that my sweet Michigan may end up playing a decisive role in tomorrow's election.  It is very clear that Wall Street wants a Hillary victory, not so much because they love her so much; they don't.  In fact, they expect that she'll probably be a thorn in their side for the next four years.  On the other hand, she does represent stability and predictability, two things the market desperately craves and that investors are quite certain they will not get from Trump.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.14.16

Still using the laptop even though I took delivery of the final missing components of my new supercharged desktop over a week ago.  But alas I leave Friday for a long overdue 2 week vacation to NYC and Philly and, since I'll need the Internet connection from the laptop when I'm on the road, there's no point in transferring my browser and email folders to the new computer for just one week, so I'll continue suffering with this laptop until my return around November 2nd.  It's possible I won't be to do my next post until after the return.

Succinct Summations of Weeks Events 10.7.16

Saturday night saw the premiere of my latest video to celebrate the 75th anniversary of my church in Orchard Lake and, after many long hours over a period of nine months in planning, production, and editing, it was the last of the outstanding items on my plate and the last video I'll be producing for some time as I now immerse in the CFP.  The next CFP event is the annual Michigan symposium in Novi October 18-19.

Summation for week-ending 9-30-16

It's been quite a week on my personal projects. The 2nd CFP class which was due to begin Tuesday night October 4th has been canceled, so I have more time now to plan my 12 year overdue vacation, for which I will likely leave right after attending the Michigan Financial Planning Conference to be held October 18th.  Meanwhile, I've had very good news with my book, having just received news that I placed in the top 6 percent in my first literary competition in Los Angeles, top 1% for originality.  I'm thinking there's a chance I might even do well enough to land an agent and sell the thing.  Meanwhile, I'm busy wrapping up a nine-month project finishing a video this week for the 75th anniversary celebration of my church this Saturday evening.  With any luck, with the other good things that are happening in my life right now, I won't have much time to do any more videos for a while.  My new computer is in and, as soon as the festivities are over on Saturday, I come home and set it up.  In the next week or two I'm hoping this daily blog will be back online again after over a two month absence.

Succinct Summations for the week ending September 23rd 2016:

Wednesday was the final session of Oakland University's CFP mentor program that has been ongoing since May.  The last exam, like the two before it, was extraordinarily difficult, not because of the material per se but because 40% of the questions were on topics not even covered, so there wasn't a clue.  It doesn't matter.  Though there were no official utterances, let alone a diploma, I was given an application for the internship program so I presume I'm in.  Exams be damned, that's all that counts.

Succinct Summations for the week ending September 16th 2016

Still another week goes by without my new computer.  This is now 7 weeks and once again I am told it will be ready in the next day or two.  In fact, on Friday I was told that it was ready and that I could pick it up tomorrow.  Tomorrow I'll find out if this is yet another entrepreneurial exaggeration or something I can take to the bank.  Next weekend will likely be my final unsolicited distribution.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.9.16 (plus The History of Index Funds)

It may come as no surprise that I am still without a computer but the good news is that my tech informed me on Thursday that my new super-desktop should be ready on Tuesday.  It may take another week or so to get it set up but next weekend should be the last of these unsolicited distributions.  Meanwhile, September 21st remains my big day, the day I am informed whether I have passed the introductory course for the CFP and therefore qualify for the internship which is a prerequisite for entering the formal academic program next February.  I expect to qualify and even have high hopes to get a very rewarding internship but, if things do not go my way, I may have to be reevaluating my career plans after next Wednesday.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.2.16 (+ CFP update)

So I've been without the benefit of modern technology since July 29th when my Dell desktop crapped out on me.  Turned out that the motherboard was fried which made me wonder how I'd been able to use it at all.  The good news is that sometime in the next two or three days I expect to get the call telling me the new desktop is ready for pickup.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.26.16

Another week off and online but at least as of Friday, the new desktop is on order, supercharged i7 processor with 16GB RAM for video editing and a turbo-charged video card, should be a dream compared to what I've been putting up with.  It'll be ready in about another week so hopefully in about two weeks I'll be back online and back to normal.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.19.16 (plus CFP update)

I got the report from my tech on Friday and it seems the old Dell desktop is fried.  Tomorrow I go in to lay out the specs for a new one which he will custom build for me optimized for video editing as I continue producing instructional media, particularly on finance and investments.  Maybe by next weekend I'll be back online again, but it may be longer.  Meanwhile, here is the weekly summation, followed by my own collection of daily summations.  And the bonus this week is a progress report on my participation in the Certified Financial Planning program at Oakland University.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.12.16

As promised, I'm keeping up this blog at least for the week-end report until my computer is back online.  This week I finally succeeded (after great effort)  in getting all the programs transferred to my laptop so that I could take my Dell desktop into the shop for upgrade/repair or replace, which I did on Thursday.  I would hope to get the verdict on upgrade or replaced tomorrow or Tuesday.  If it's an upgrade, I should be back in business by next weekend.  If it's replace, it'll be a bit longer.  Meanwhile, below is the succinct summary of the week's events as promised.  As a supplement, this week I've been following the market on a daily basis again and provide my own one-paragraph summation below as well in order to track the trends.  Hope everyone had a great weekend and I hope everything is back to normal by next weekend.  As soon as we are back to normal, I'll be able to resume sending only to subscribers again.  Thanks for your patience.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.5.16

Still having massive PC issues but at least I've figured out how to locate all my lost links through old fashioned google searches and at least retrieve the week-end summary so I can continue to supply at least that minimal service before I lose the audience I have carefully built during the last 19 months.  Until I figure this all out and can get back functionally online again, I will paste this week-end report to an email every Sunday so that every one can still be up on this blog once a week until the fix is in. Tomorrow I hope to get AOL to fix my browser and restore all my links and address books on my laptop.  Then I can finally get the desktop into the shop for repair or replace.  Hope everyone's had a great week and weekend,

Sorry ... signing off for a while

Sorry, I have to sign off for awhile.  My Dell, which has been giving me a lot of trouble for a couple years now, last night crashed out but good.  The last two weeks have been particularly as I have been intensifying my prep in getting it into the shop, though it's been crashing several times a day, until late last night, a reboot fixed it.  No longer.  Can't get it to do much of anything now.  Have to transfer my program over to my laptop and try to get the Dell fixed.  Or buy a new computer, I'll let my tech advise me on that.  But this blog and everything else must go on suspension now until further notice.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 7.29.16 (plus Trump)

It's time for the weekly eye-shot and, this time, IMHO, it's a wash.  In fact, this time, I think the difference between the positives and the negatives are so slight that any item could easily have been in the other column.  Which is to say that the week mostly went quite well.  This Sunday's bonus is ... well, let's just say that not everyone on Wall Street is a Trump supporter.  In fact, most are not.  First I present Barry Ritholtz's hilarious indexing of all the ridiculous insults Trump has hurled against his opponents since Day One.  Second, another frequent Wall Street Journal contributor publishes his own take on how to defeat the billionaire -- in a few words, Hillary might lose unless she stops playing nice.  Oh well, the real campaign hasn't even started.  I doubt that in a month anyone's going to be accusing anyone of playing nice.  Hope everyone is dealing nicely with the heat and had a great weekend.

Can We Educate Investors? (Not really) - The Big Picture

This is something I've been talking about for a long time.  This is the reason I am studying to be a Financial Planner.

Tech shares and muted GDP growth push S&P 500 to record

This week has certainly been an excellent illustration of the fickleness of the market as, for five consecutive days, the Dow dropped like a rock right out the gate and then, due to an onslaught of good news, all but fully recovered by close.  Today it was more of a surprise though since after the "after the bell" great reports from Amazon and Alphabet yesterday, you'd have thought there'd have been a big rally this morning right out the gate.  Instead, bad reports from McDonald's and Exxon sent the Dow plunging once again, again almost a hundred points, before the day's big rally resulted in a close just 24 points down, all on relatively high volume of 7.3 billion.

Wall St. edges up; Alphabet and Amazon rise after the bell

Four consecutive days now that the Dow dropped over a hundred points right out the gate only to almost fully recover late in the session to close only 15 points down.  Today's trigger was a bad report from Ford and the latter impetus was due to a good report from Apple.  Unemployment benefits also rose more than expected.  Volume was right in line with recent averages at 6.6 billion shares.

Wall St. ends lower after Fed keeps rates unchanged

For the third consecutive day, the market dropped like a rock right out the gate, this time to the tune of 130 points, only to recover almost completely by close to end the session just 1 point down.  This time trigger was the announcement from the Fed meeting that the economy was going along okay with few worries about the possible shocks that could knock things off course, which is good news.  This of course opened the door to another rate hike later this year, which is bad news.  The bad news was compensated by another string of very good Q2 reports, particularly from Boeing.  The news was sufficiently positive that Q2 results have once again been upgraded, this time from a negative 3.3% to a negative 3 percent, quite a change from the negative 5% of just one month ago.  Volume wasn't bad either at 7.3 billion.

Wall St. mixed, Apple impresses and Twitter disappoints

A very strong housing report triggered fears that the Fed might raise rates after all on this, the first day of the two-day July meeting, and that in turn, just like yesterday, sent the Dow diving right out the gate though, due to more positive Q2 reports, the index recovered to close down just 19 points.  Investors still expect companies to do better in Q2 than has been forecast.  At 6.5 billion, volume was a little closer to recent averages than it has been.

Wall St. declines as earnings take center stage

Mon, 7-25-16

Worries over a global crude glut caused the market to drop like a rock right out the gate, but things did recover moderately before close to shutter at 77 points down.  The drop in oil made everyone a little more cautious today so most remain on the sidelines awaiting an onslaught of more Q2 reports.  Thus, volume was very light at 5.9 billion shares.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 7.22.16 (plus a debt graphic)

This is the Sunday between the two big weeks that are defining a whole new chapter in American politics.  But it is apparent from this week's succinct summation that the tumult on the electoral front is not having any particular impact on the markets as they all hit new all-time highs this week.  But since we're on the topic of national debates, this week's bonus is a reading list containing a very informative graphic about the debt and about the best investments of the past three decades.  Two big surprises here: first, what's leading the pack and, second, well see for yourself.  Let's just say that if you think the U.S. debt is bad, it's nothing compared to the rest of the world.  Interesting reading includes a New York Times article explaining the irony about how green energy is actually thwarting climate change policy and what we can learn from sex workers about courtesy and truth on the Internet.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  Try to stay cool.

Long Way To Go . . .

Another very curious graphic on this very hot July Saturday evening -- an eye-shot survey of what investment advisers are defining as the best investments for the next ten years.  As Mr. Ritholtz points out, it's very surprising that stocks rate so low, even more so that the typical consumer-investor seems very content to ignore this advice and stick with old fashioned index funds during this, the second longest running bull market in history showing no signs of letting up.

Wall St. rises, racks up fourth straight week of gains

After a one-day respite, both the Dow and S&P are back on top again, the S&P with still another all-time record.  A trend of generally good reports combined with the sentiment that the market has absorbed the Brexit has pushed the index up another 53 points.  Once again, Q2 earnings forecasts have been revised upwards, today now at a minus 3 percent, up from a minus 3.3 yesterday and a minus 5.0 at the beginning of earnings season.  At this rate, we may actually be in positive numbers by the end.  But there is still a lot of money on the sidelines awaiting more reporting, reflected in the low volume of 5.6 billion, way below the 7.5 billion average.

Intel, transports sap Wall Street's strength

A nearly two week long streak of setting new all-time records was broken today when a series of less than stellar Q2 reports, namely from the transportation and technology sectors, hit the market and brought the Dow down 77 points, not nearly enough to neutralize the recent rallies but plenty enough to erase some of the recent records, which isn't necessarily bad.  After such an extensive rally, it was time for some pullback.  Still, despite this modest retreat, forecasts have been revised upwards again.

Microsoft helps Wall St. to another day of record highs

"Twas still another day of record highs, the 7th in so many days for the Dow (and about the same for the S&P) with the index up another 36, the S&P 9.  Modest yes, but still very significant that the major rallies of the last couple weeks are holding and will likely go higher as more positive Q2 reports flow in.  Microsoft kept everything afloat today with an outstanding report boosted by its very successful cloud business.  The Q2 forecast last week was for a minus 5%.  Two days ago that was adjusted to a minus 4.5, yesterday to a minus 4.3 and today to a minus 3.8 percent, all signs pointing to increased confidence as attested to by the 6.2 billion share volume, still not quite up to averages but a lot closer as more money comes off the sidelines.

S&P pulls back from record; Dow notches eighth day of gains

Today the Dow hit its sixth consecutive all-time high with a boost of another 25 points riding on continued Q2 optimism.  This optimism had a bit of water thrown on it today with some companies like Netflix coming in with poor reports and the IMF with a less than stellar global growth forecast.  Yesterday the forecast for a 5% drop in Q2 was adjusted upwards to a 4.5% drop and today adjusted upwards again to 4.3 percent.  However, most of the money remains on the sidelines awaiting more results as reflected in the anemic volume of 5.6 billion shares traded, way below the 7.5 billion average.

Wall St. sets records again, led by tech, bank stocks

Q2 and general economic optimism continues to maintain the market at record high levels.  Today the Dow reached a fifth consecutive record high when it bumped up another 16 points and the S&P, after a very slight 2 point sputter Friday, got another 5 point boost and record high itself today.  The recent surge is causing companies to upwardly revise their Q2 numbers with analysts now believing more companies than not will end up beating estimates and the recent forecast of a 5% drop in earnings is now adjusted to a 4.5 percent drop.  It's a fair bet we'll see that number continuing to adjust to the positive side.  One thing that seems to be agreed upon is that the market has shaken off the Brexit.  Still, volume was light, at 5.6 billion way below the 7.7 billion average, and indicative that investors are still awaiting more Q2 results.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 7.15.16 (+ 5,000 Year History of Urbanization)

It's been quite the tumultuous week, the markets having done very well while the rest of the world not so well.  Four major disasters in one week, has this ever happened before?  And to show how we got from there to here, this Sunday's bonus is a terrific 3 minute animation from YouTube showing the complete 6,000 year history of the city-state.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  Hopefully, with the coup in Turkey having been put down over the weekend, tomorrow's market will hold no major surprises.

France Terror Timeline

An intriguing graphic showing the entire history of all the terrorist attacks on France during the last four years.  There have been terror attacks all over the world but France has gotten more than its fair share.

Wall St. ends flat but futures slip after Turkey coup reports

The S&P dipped a bit thereby breaking four consecutive sessions of new all-time highs but the Dow shot up for a fourth consecutive session to another new all-time high with an extra 10 points to its credit.  Q2 still has everyone feeling quite confident but everything ground to a halt with the news of the military coup in Turkey, still entirely unresolved at close.  Developments will be closely watched over the weekend while the market bets that the coup fails.  I am writing this at 1:20 a.m.  It was announced on MSNBC at about 11:45 p.m. that the coup had failed but, even at this hour, CNN has not accepted that stance, still reporting that it remains unknown who is really in control in Ankara.  It will be an interesting weekend.  Volume was below average at 6.1 billion.

Wall Street sets another record as JPMorgan leads banks higher

Q2 just keeps getting better which today pushed the Dow up another 135 big points, making this the third consecutive day that the index has reached a new all-time high and, with the S&P up another 11, the fourth consecutive all-time high for that one.  JP Morgan came in with a report much higher than expected and so did Delta, bring the VIX "fear gauge" down to its lowest in 11 months.  The Bank of England announced no change in rates and kept open the prospect of additional stimulus, their own version of QE.  Unemployment benefits are at a 43 year low while producer prices gained.  All in all, a recipe for continued growth and improved prosperity though, at 6.5 billion shares, it's obvious there's still money on the sidelines awaiting more Q2 news.  Tomorrow, six more big banks report.

Wall Street ticks up to extend record streak

For the second day the Dow has seen another all-time new high even if it's just to the tune of a modest 24 points.  And ditto for the S&P on a third consecutive day, all on continued upbeat Q2 and a belief in the continuing strengthening of the economy.  Tomorrow the Bank of England meets to talk about their own version of QE so volume was a little bit on the light side at 6.5 billion in anticipation of that outcome.  Generally speaking, Q2 is expected to be in good shape, and Q3 & 4 in better.  But before we have too big a party, let's just keep in mind that there are a few minor things in our future such as the presidential election that can potentially change everything.

S&P and Dow hit records as growth bets boost Wall Street

Yesterday the S&P reached a new all-time high and the Dow was lagging just 70 points behind another all-time high.  With the S&P gaining another 15 today and the Dow up 120, both are now at new all-time highs.  Investors are sending a strong message that the U.S. economy, despite a slow start to the year, is on solid footing.  Q2 is underway and while some believe it will be a repeat of Q1 with another 5% decrease in earnings, others believe that Q1 was the bottom and that Q2 is bringing bright news.  This was bolstered by United Continental, Seagate, and Western Digital all turning in good reports.  Energy also came in with a more than 2% gain with crude leading with 5 percent.  Part of the rally is attributed to the belief that the central banks here and globally will keep interest rates low due to the Brexit.  7.6 billion shares were traded which is right in line with recent averages.

Strong economy, earnings bets propel S&P 500 to record high

7 more points on the S&P finally sent that index to another all-time high, something it's been flirting with for several weeks now.  80 more points on the Dow, now also just 70 points shy of its all-time high reached 3 years ago.  With global markets pretty much at a standstill, the strong U.S. market is being lauded as proof of the remarkable resilience of our economy.  The debate still rages whether the stock rallies are being artificially triggered by low interest rates or legitimately by improving industry performance.  (I personally subscribe to the latter view.)

How the American Revolution Trashed the British Markets 1770-1790

So we begin this Sunday's edition with the bonus which is a fascinating graphic showing how the American Exit from the British Empire (Amexit) wreaked havoc on their financial markets for 20 years.  This actually appeared in The Economist on July 4th so we're a week behind picking it up.  But it's worth the pickup.  The summary of the week's events is presented below the graph with all the great post-Brexit comeback news the week had to offer.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.

Hedge Funds Worst First Half Since ’11 on Turmoil

Our Saturday kernel of wisdom this week is the graph below that shows not surprisingly that hedge funds seem to do well mostly only in falling markets.  When things are going well, hedge funds seriously underperform, which makes a certain amount of sense in view of the fact that the only really big secret about these kinds of funds is that they do a lot of short selling, a strategy that can be hugely profitable but that works best in a falling market and can be fraught with calamitous risk otherwise.  This has been especially true in the last six years when there's been so much wild seesawing on practically a daily basis.  When the market goes down triple digits one day, then up again triple the next day, and this happens over and over ... let's just say these are not exactly ideal conditions for successful hedge fund management.

S&P 500 brushes record high after blowout jobs report

Well, this morning's payroll report came in boffo and that caused another huge rally shooting the Dow up a big 250 points putting the index now back a big 135 points above the pre-Brexit level and the VIX "fear gauge" at its lowest level since late May.  It wasn't just a big number, it was huge, coming in with a hundred thousand more jobs than predicted, 287,000 new jobs or 65% higher than the forecast.  There is now much more confidence that the poor Q1 performance was a fluke and that we are back on track with the growth we had enjoyed in prior quarters.  Q2 earnings season begins next week and then we'll have a whole new ballgame.  Meanwhile, today's volume was just a little below recent averages at 7.1 billion.

Energy weighs on Wall St. but Costco shines

Another mild correction today and it actually was looking more like a major correction as the Dow fell over a hundred points throughout most of the session only to rebound near the close to regain all but 22 points.  Crude fell again, this time 5 percent on reports that inventories were still higher than expected.  And with the market becoming more and more comfortable with the Brexit, the safe havens of gold and utilities which everyone had initially rushed to are now taking a downturn.  The bright spot was the employment report showing 13,000 more jobs than forecast.  But the real report, the monthly payrolls report, comes in on Friday and, if it's in agreement, that should boost things further.  The new job numbers have placated concerns about the weak May data and has everyone hoping the Fed will be reassured.  At 6.7 billion shares, volume was below the 4-week average of 7.8 billion.

Wall Street up on cautious Fed, upbeat data

So we had a bit of a correction yesterday and we had a bit of a rally today as the minutes of the June Fed meeting revealed that, as expected, the Brexit has injected a considerable amount of uncertainty into the global economic outlook and that therefore interest rates would stay on hold for a while.  It is exactly what investors wanted to hear and shot the Dow up 78 points.  Crude also rose over 2 percent, mostly on news that the service industries had hit a 7-month high spurring more hiring and adding more fuel to the argument that Q2 was picking up.  Trading was right in line with recent averages at 7.4 billion shares.

Economic growth worries, oil slump drag Wall St. lower

It seems we've started a mild correction after last week's huge post-Brexit rally with the Dow steadily sinking all day long to settle 108 points down.  It seems that after last week's huge gains that investors are taking a breath and wondering if the "Brexit effect" really is over.  I think they can take it to the bank that it isn't and that there will be further selloffs.  So there was a little of what they call "risk-off" trading today, aggravated by an almost 5% drop in crude and a new report showing that factory orders fell in May.  But most investors are apparently still waiting it out as reflected in the below-average volume of 6.9 billion.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 7.1.16 (+ college bonus)

The long holiday weekend has come to an end so tomorrow it's back to business as usual and we find out whether the post-Brexit rally continues or withers.  Meanwhile, here's the convenient snapshot of the past week's events.  This time it's mostly all positives due to the flexibility U.S. markets have shown regarding the Brexit, with all the negatives being in Europe and Asia with all the fallout and chaos from the Brexit.  The holiday bonus is a stunning graphic showing that there is still quite a premium to be enjoyed by those who hold a college degree, the job market participation rate among degreed workers being much higher than those without a degree in an economy where unskilled labor is gradually becoming obsolete and unmarketable.  Hope everyone had an enjoyable Independence Day!

S&P 500 vs. VIX: Are Stocks Too Low?

Another fascinating graphic for this 4th of July holiday that shows further evidence that this market may very well be ripe for an ideal buying opportunity.  Afterwards enjoy the 22 minute TED video where mathematician Jim Simon is interviewed about how he cracked the Wall Street code.  Enjoy your 4th!

10 Weekend Reads (+ graphic ROI on college degrees)

The 4th of July of weekend has gotten off to a very pleasant start so for those of us who are sunning and funning, here is another interesting weekend reading list courtesy of our friend Barry Ritholtz.  On this list is a very interesting article about the nature of modern cultures that seem to promote the endurance of bad ideas.  But the real winner this week comes from the New Republic: "The Foreclosure Sleuth:  How a Sports Agent Uncovered the Biggest Financial Fraud in American History."  A close runner up is today's graphic, courtesy of The Economist, which shows the 20-year financial return of various college degrees.  It seems to negate the popular notion that technical degrees provide for better careers than liberal arts degrees as one can easily observe most of the dots clustering right around the 5 to 15 percent mark, meaning they all return a fairly respectable positive ROI.

Wall St. ends higher for fourth straight day

Gains for the fourth straight session even if today was only to the tune of a modest 19 points.  The triple digit rallies may be behind us but that's okay.  It was a good run and it's gotten us almost all the way back to the pre-Brexit world.  Investors now feel that either the Brexit won't be a big deal after all or, alternatively, it may not happen at all.  Two years is a long time and already, after only one week of chaos, there is already talk of another possible referendum to reverse it.  Other good news includes an expansion of June factory activity and overall positive momentum for the U.S. economy.  After a week of very brisk activity, trading was a little more subdued today with 6.7 billion shares vs a 4-week average of 7.7 billion.  Have a great Independence Day weekend!

Wall Street rallies for third day as Brexit bruises fade

Thu, 6-30-16

Day #3 of the Great Comeback from the Brexit having pushed the Dow up another big triple digit increase, today 235 points.  So what's the tally now?  Lost 870 Fri & Mon, gained 790 Tue thru Thu.  So the rout from the Brexit has been almost completely neutralized.  Not that more downside is not likely to happen.  It likely is.  But at least today optimism is still running things.  We also had good news about factory activity showing its highest levels in 1-1/2 years and the S&P finishing its third consecutive quarter in the black, all this on very strong volume of 8.7 billion.  Let's keep those good vibes coming.

Wall Street rebounds from Brexit with second day of big gains

Maybe the third time really is the charm as today we saw the second consecutive day of a big buying spree pushing the Dow up another 285 points now recouping almost two-thirds of the selloff from the Brexit. As one expert said today, "It's not the end of the world and it never was the end of the world."  The rebound was accompanied by a bounce in oil prices triggered by another drawdown in crude inventories.  It seems oil is still the proxy for the global economy.  Other good news included consumer spending rising for the second straight month.  Will this continue or will there be more sliding due to the Brexit?  Probably a little of both.  But for now at least the markets are a little more calm.  The buying spree was on healthy volume of 8 billion shares.

Wall Street bounces back after two-day Brexit rout

As the old saying goes, the third time's the charm.  That seems to have come true today on this the third day following the Brexit.  The warnings that we will be a long time dealing with the impact of this historic moment may still come true, but at least as of today investors have decided things are going to be okay after all and have started a massive buying spree again bolting the Dow up 269 points effectively neutralizing yesterday's plunge.  It helped that the day saw new reports on growth reaffirming that the economy is still in good shape.  Yes, tomorrow is another day, but at least today we're in rebound and with a very healthy volume of 8.2 billion.

Wall Street sings Brexit blues with brutal two-day slide

Day #2 of the "Brexit Effect."  Would make a great title for a horror movie if it wasn't already so scary.  But as one expert has noted, at least the sell off has been orderly and not panicked.  On this second day the Dow has been stung to the tune of another 260 points making the two-day total just a shade short of a 900 point drop.  As has been noted, this is the biggest two-day loss in history, but that of course is only in terms of raw dollars.  Percentage-wise, it's not nearly so dramatic and with the Dow still over 17,000 it's really not anywhere near historic proportions at all.

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events for 6.24.16 (+ Trump/Clinton 1 yr of polls)

The week's summation is here again and this time the positives could not even begin to hold a candle to the negative of the Brexit, something that will be dominating the financial headlines for quite some time to come.  The very fascinating bonus this week is a graphic showing the averages over a one-year period of all of the 473 polls from 31 polling organizations of Trump v Clinton.  The resulting graph shows a very clear conclusion, and the corresponding analysis is also pretty compelling.

For your weekend pleasure, here is one jazzy graphic that demonstrates that dividend stocks are a pretty good place to keep your money these days.  It can be readily observed that in tumultuous times they handily outperform the index.  In less than tumultuous times, they are either even with or a little ahead of the index.  They do seem to be one place where one can have peace of mind.  For your consideration.  

U.S. Dividend Stock Performance, June 2015-2016

June 25, 2016 7:00am by Barry Ritholtz

Source: BlackRock

Worst day in 10 months as Wall Street reacts to 'Brexit'

So let's be honest.  There was really no reason why today's tumult in the global markets should have shocked anyone.  Okay, the markets bet against the Brexit and, as has happened numerous times in the past, the markets were wrong.  All the Wall Street geniuses, as well as the now defunct British PM, miscalculated the sentiments of the British people.  So the Dow fell 610 points.  It was grossly oversold anyway.  And, after all, though the news came crashing in today, Britain's actually exit doesn't happen for two whole years; and the whole universe can change in two years.

Wall St. bets on Britain staying in EU; stocks rally

Two weeks ago the polls showed a modest 4 percent leaning toward Britain leaving the EU.  After last week's assassination of Jo Cox, the gap started quickly closing until yesterday it was even-steven, with an impressive 9% undecided and presumed to be potential "Remain" votes.  This morning as Brits marched to the polls (in the midst of torrential rains), the surveys showed that half of that 9% was indeed now going anti-Brexit.  This shot the market up a very big 230 points as everyone was anxiously awaiting a big sigh of relief to learn that the global markets were likely not going to be turned upside down after all.  So much was this taken as a given that the VIX had a one-day decline of a whopping 18 percent.

Wall Street dips, all eyes on British referendum

On this Brexit Eve, the market (as it has the past few sessions) shot way up right out the gate only to gradually settle down lower as the day progressed to close 49 points down.  The morning's good news regarding Q2 earnings and strong retail sales provided the initial trigger, with the looming Brexit doing the rest.  The relatively low volume of 6.3 billion shares attests to the fact that a good amount of cash sits on the sidelines awaiting the results of tomorrow's referendum in England.  The polls show it to be an even contest, but the good news is that there is a substantial 9% undecided.  Tempers running so hot, it's a good bet that those 9 percent who are not "hot under the collar" will realize by tomorrow that unity is far preferable to separation.  This may explain why the markets have not been in too much turmoil.  Of course, all that could violently change tomorrow.

Wall St. ticks up on economy bets; Brexit fear ebbs

T minus two days until the Brexit vote.  Even though the pro vs con forces have been pretty evenly matched, there does seem to be building a very slight tilt against the exit.  As these things go, today's market was pretty even-tempered with the mild optimism leaving the Dow up 25 points.  The British pound responded in kind hitting its highest level against the dollar in six months.  And Janet Yellen issued yet another report, again optimistic about the recovery and warning about the ramifications of a Brexit.  Her best news: equity valuations are at their strongest in over 30 years.  In other words, no signs of another recession yet.  Trading was just a little below recent averages at 6.2 billion.

Wall Street ends higher as Britain seen staying in EU

What a tangled web the Brexit weaves.  On news that public sentiment in England is turning and the odds now momentarily against Britain exiting the EU later this week, the Dow shot up 270 points right out the gate and then spent the rest of the session gradually settling down to close 130 up.  But Thursday is still an eternity away and the slightest burp can easily send everything hurling in the other direction.  But at least the U.K.'s ETF is also seeing good news with the fund up four percent and at more than triple average volume.  Still, Thursday is an eternity away.  At 6.6 billion, volume was just a little below recent averages of 6.8 billion.

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events for 6.17.2016 (plus The Next Subprime)

For the second week in a row, the succinct summation fails to include what I consider to be the biggest story of the week, the so-called Brexit.  This week it was seriously amped up by Thursday's murder of British MP Jo Cox, a leading anti-Brexit politician.  The vote is coming later this week, and it may have global ramifications.  Other negatives include manufacturing down a bit, jobless claims up a bit, and stocks down for a second consecutive week (primarily because of the Brexit threat.)  Positives include higher sales and lower prices.  And as a consequence of the higher sales, lower inventories.

The Power Hierarchy - The Big Picture

Courtesy of today's column by Barry Ritholtz on his "Big Picture" blog, an insightful little essay about where the real power resides in this country.  You may be surprised.  It is most certainly not with the 1%, much less for that matter with Wall Street as a whole.  It's not even with Apple.  Enjoy his analysis ...

The Power Hierarchy - The Big Picture

Wall St. ends week on down note as Apple weighs

The Brexit still weighs heavily on Wall Street (and every other global market), heavy enough so that the Dow took another big dive this morning right out the gate to the tune of 130 points.  Apple took some of the heat since the Chinese government has now banned the company from selling the iPhone in its biggest market, claiming that it infringes on some Chinese patents.  (Yeah right, as if there can be a second Steve Jobs in the world.)  But, really, investors are jumping on and off the fence like crazy trying to position themselves for what may or may not happen in England next week.  Right now the polls give the pro-Brexit forces a 2 to 4 percent lead.  With the margin of error, that's probably close to even.  Anyway, 130 points down in the morning but recovered in the afternoon to close 58 down.  Buying and selling like crazy, at 9 billion shares, volume was considerably above the 4-week average of 6.7 billion.

Wall Street rebounds, snaps five-day losing streak

At approximately 8 a.m. Eastern Time, the world was shaken by news of the assassination of British MP (Member of Parliament) Mrs. Jo Cox, an anti-Brexit activist who was shot and stabbed several times by a 78 year old vehemently pro-Brexit mental patient in the town of Birstall 200 miles north of London.  Though British authorities say it is too early to confirm that the killing was politically motivated, the fact that the shooter, a well-known anti-EU protester, was heard screaming "Britain First, Britain First!" as he fired the fatal shots, leaves little doubt in most observers' minds that this was all about the Brexit vote coming up next week.

Wall Street falls as Fed holds steady and Brexit vote looms

The Dow fell another 34 points today and the consensus is that it was due to continuing modest worries over next week's so-called Brexit.  As expected, there was no interest rate announcement from the Fed this afternoon.  As expected, Janet Yellen's remarks were reassuring that no rate hikes would be coming in the near future and that the situation in Britain was certainly factored into that decision.  But here's the thing.  The Dow was actually up almost 90 points during the session and only came crashing down after 3:30 p.m. This does not appear at all correlated to either Britain or the Fed.  But with the market reacting so moderately overall, it would seem that investors don't really believe the polls in England and don't really think the Brexit is going to happen.  Recall the same thing happened with Scotland a couple years ago where the polls were all wrong and the Scots voted to stay in the U.K.  So let's stay calm until there's a reason not to.  Even the "fear gauge" fell almost 2% today.  Volume was a little above average at 6.8 billion shares.

Wall Street falls as Brexit vote becomes major fear

Market nerves continue to be ever so slightly on edge as the first of the two day June Fed meeting is underway and, though every expectation is that there will be no interest rate hike announcement tomorrow, everyone will still be listening raptly to every word Janet Yellen has to utter.  But the upcoming so-called Brexit vote has probably created more anxiety than anything else as Britain seems headed towards a split the rest of the world is dreading, sending the VIX to its highest level in three months.  Today's good news was better than expected U.S. retail sales.  Volume was a little above average at 7.4 billion.

Brexit and Fed fears weigh on world stocks; yen firms (plus Tensile Investing)

As this week's Fed meeting and next week's Brexit referendum draw nearer, the market is once again getting a case of the nerves creating sentiment toward caution that brought the Dow down 132 points today.  With the potential damage to the EU threatening global recession, oil is also down and EU stocks hit their lowest levels in three months.  Still, with only 3.6 billion shares traded, more money is sitting on the sidelines than on the table.  Much more reporting due this week, and then we'll see.

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 6.10.16 (+ Muhammad Ali eulogy)

It's been another Sunday spent studying the CFP, another 150 pages of material to prepare for the second exam coming on Wednesday, with special focus this time on developing risk profiles for prospective clients.  Meanwhile, here's the week's summation.  The positives:  mortgage applications up, job openings up.  The negatives: ECB starting into negative interest rates.  What I thought was the week's biggest negative didn't make the list -- Britain may be pulling out of the EU.  Hope your weekend was better than theirs.  

10 Weekend Reads - 6-11-16 The Big Picture

Another fascinating Saturday reading list courtesy of Barry Ritholtz and his "The Big Picture" blog on the Wall Street Journal web site.  The one item that caught my eye this weekend is a topic that I've been waiting for a lot more coverage of -- the Flint water crisis not being limited to Flint but actually a nationwide epidemic.  Happy reading and hope everyone is enjoying this very warm summer weekend.

Within sight of a record, Wall Street runs into a wall

What with three days to think about it, investors have now apparently decided the recent rally is over and are taking their profits, thereby plunging the Dow 119 points.  Today's major trigger was Britain's threat to exit the EU, which would be a major game changer.  Recent polling shows a majority of the British favoring it.  So Wall Street is bracing for that vote now two weeks off.  But there is a slew of new reporting coming next week that will either turn things around or encourage a deeper slide.  At 6.8 billion shares, volume was in line with recent averages.

Wall Street retreats with oil prices after three-day rally

Yesterday commodities were up a little ... and so was the market.  Today commodities were down a little ... and so was the market.  The consensus seems to be that investors are taking a breath after the recent rally and this is reflected in the very modest 19 point downturn in the Dow while the S&P remains within spitting distance of its all-time high.  With no major new news and nothing but minor consolidation going on, sentiment about next week's Fed meeting remains boringly unchanged.  Some boredom in the market is very refreshing from time to time.  Volume was below average at 6.1 billion.

Dow finishes back above 18,000 as dollar dips

Based on the consensus that no rate hike will be coming next week, gold, copper and oil all got a boost.  As goes commodities, then generally the dollar goes the other way.  With a little weaker dollar, international firms got a boost sending the Dow up 67 points.  The S&P continues to climb, now just 12 points off its record high.  Nobody's particularly anxious about next week's Fed meeting anymore since it is expected rates will remain unchanged.  Volume was just a little below recent averages at 6.5 billion.

S&P edges closer to record high; energy shares lead

Investors took a second day today to digest Janet Yellen's remarks about the economy and interest rates and decided they still like what they heard, pushing the Dow up again, this time another 18 points.  The energy index also got a boost and the S&P is now just 18 points short of its all-time high.  The question now - will we break out to new all-time highs, or settle back again?  Volume was just a little below recent averages at 6.4 billion shares.

S&P 500 ends at seven-month high after Yellen comments

Janet Yellen today gave the market exactly what it was looking for - reassurances that the economy was on the right track along with double reassurances that sufficient improvements were still needed before the next rate hike.  All of Wall Street's fears that a June or July hike was imminent went away with the pundits now convinced we're looking more realistically at late year instead, and thus investors pushed the Dow up 113 points.  The S&P also benefited closing just 21 points below its record high.  But as happy as Yellen's comments were, all eyes remain on next week's Fed meeting.  Volume was just a little below recent averages at 6.4 billion.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events June 3rd 2016 (plus Sunday reads)

A summary of a lackluster week that included a poor jobs report that investors are still trying to figure out if that's a good thing or a bad thing.  The Sunday bonus is another fascinating reading list with articles ranging from our favorite topic of behavioral finance (Why IQ Matters More Than Grit), how the economy is impacting the 2016 presidential race and why it is so difficult to keep secrets, especially on Wall Street.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.

Earnings and Performance Data For All Earnings Recessions Since 1955

Still another graphic that compresses tremendous information into a single table, this time a history of all recessions since 1955.  Did anyone else know that supposedly we're in another recession that started last fall?  Another significant bonus is this weekend's Masters In Business series, this time an interview with Steven Pinker, author of "How the Mind Works" with yet another view of our favorite subject and the one area of investing that separates the winners from the losers - the psychological aspect of putting your hard earned dollars on the line.

Weak jobs report weighs on Wall Street, bank shares

Today was yet another textbook example of the irrational behavior of the market.  For weeks now the fear of a June or July rate hike has produced the sentiment that a good May jobs report would be undesirable as it would give the Fed a sound basis for a hike.  Today the report delivered exactly what investors claimed to want -- weak numbers, the fewest new jobs in 5-1/2 years, only 38,000 against a forecast of 164,000.  There should have been dancing in the streets.  Instead the Dow dropped like a rock right out the gate and only later in the session came back as investors realized that weak job growth was what they wanted in the first place.  So the pessimists got good news.  Even the optimists were happy as they quickly concluded this was an aberration and we'd be getting much better numbers in June.  Thus the job market was still in pretty good shape, much better than this one report reflected.  But that did not stop the dramatic dive in all three indexes, a dive that came close to but never did fully recover, the Dow starting the day with a dive of almost 150 points and closing down just 31.  Not a bad rebound but no cigar.  Irrational.  At 7 billion, volume was right in line with recent averages.

Healthcare helps Wall St. to slight gains; jobs report next

A mild 48 point bump in the Dow due to seven months of good news for the S&P and seven days of gains for the Nasdaq.  A good private hiring report plus lower joblessness also helped.  Even though good job reports might trigger a June rate hike, today's data was still greeted as good news, as if the market is actually finally now looking forward to the hike and the stability that will hopefully come with it.  Still, what everyone's really waiting for is tomorrow's government payroll report and this is reflected in the lower than average 6.4 billion shares traded.

Wall St. notches minor gains as economic data pours in

And so I’ve had my 2^nd mentor session, tough quiz but I think I did okay.  Won’t know though for two more weeks.  The session went quite cordially otherwise.  12 more weeks.   In other news, the market had a wild ride today, dropping 120 points right out the gate but recovered by session's end a big 2 points up.  Investors are processing a lot of contradictory data while sitting on needles and pins for the employment and payroll reports coming tomorrow and Friday.  Bad reports may mean rate hikes will be delayed.  Meanwhile, though global manufacturing is static, U.S. manufacturing has grown for a third consecutive month.  On the minus side, May auto sales were weaker.  Volume was below average at 6.5 billion.

Wall St. ends May with whimper as energy shares slump

Well, I'm about as ready for tomorrow as I'm going to be.  By 1:15 p.m. I should know whether I'm still a candidate for the CFP or am on the road to expulsion.  It's been a very discouraging and frustrating couple of days.  I may have mentioned earlier that I was told that 3 hours of reading and study for the exam tomorrow would be sufficient.  I've already put in more than triple that.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 5.27.16 (plus the Future of Money)

They call it M-Pessa and it has been used quite successfully for years in Kenya as a new form of electronic currency, considerably easier, cheaper, and more efficient than other forms of exchange used throughout the world.  They're calling it "The Future of Money" and 60 Minutes has the story.  It's not a new story (though it did run in repeat last night) but one that's well worth another look.  Meanwhile, it's time for the succinct summary again including an upward revision of more than 50% for Q1 GDP. (Don't get too excited.  It's still under 1% total.)   Hope everyone had a great holiday.

Telling Clients No

Immediately following this Memorial Day weekend, it will only be a matter of hours before I attend my 2nd mentorship session in the CFP program and my first session where I will be expected to have prepared material and an exam on said material.

Are You Saving Enough to Retire?

For this Memorial Day weekend, once again a picture is worth a thousand words.  Here's a single graphic that sums up everything you need to know about planning a retirement ...

Wall Street puts finishing touch on best week since March

For the third consecutive day, investors are showing an ever increasing comfort level with the likelihood of a June or July rate hike and thus the Dow continues to climb, today to the modest sum of 44 points.  Today's comments from Janet Yellen seemed to offer additional reassurance that any such steps would be "appropriate" and the market continues to see a hike as a vote of confidence in the overall health of the economy.  Reports today also reaffirmed the fact that Q1 growth had not slowed as badly as originally thought.  Still, with the holiday weekend, trading was quite thin, only 5.6 billion shares, way below recent averages but certainly well in line with holiday averages.

Wall Street hits 'pause' after two-day surge

After two days of triple-digit gains, the market took a breather today as investors resign themselves to a rate hike in the foreseeable future.  But in spite of a new report showing healthy manufacturing orders, weakness in that sector is still considered far from solved.  And it may just be the fact that traditionally trading slows on a holiday weekend.  In any event, the Dow went down a modest 23 points as everyone waits for the next sign of good news for a new buy point.  As is typical for a holiday, volume was down considerably to just 5.8 billion shares.

S&P 500 ascends 2 percent in two days

For the second straight day investors continue to digest the likelihood of a sooner than later rate hike and continue to accept that it probably won't be that big a deal.  So for the second straight day, the Dow is again up triple digits, this time 145 points.  Part of this is a boost from oil which, after the latest reports of smaller than expected inventories, crude shot up again and is now approaching $50 per barrel giving the market more reassurance that perhaps the black stuff is on its way back up at last.  (Keep in mind it wasn't too many weeks ago that it was in the mid-30s.)  Investors also consider that the only reason policy makers are considering a sooner rate increase is because of the plethora of upbeat economic data, and that ain't a bad thing either.  Odds makers are now putting the probability of a June rate hike at 38 percent (up from 30 last week, up from 15 the week prior) but July at 45, which most agree is much more likely.  (After all, June is right around the corner.)  Volume was 6.9 billion, a little below recent averages.

Banks and tech drive Wall Street up over 1 percent

It's happened before and I'm sure it'll happen again.  The Fed gives the slightest hint of an interest rate hike and everyone sells in a panic.  The next day investors figure out that a rate hike might not be such a bad thing after all.  In fact, it can be downright good for financial stocks.  And so they start buying again with a vengeance.  That's what happened today shooting the Dow up a big 213 points when sentiment changed positive on the likelihood that rate hikes would be gradual (something the Fed has been stressing since Day One) and then seeing stocks like B of A and Citigroup shoot up.  Home sales also surged to an eight year high offering further evidence of a growing economy.  Volume was 6.9 billion, close to the month's average of 7.2 billion.

Wall Street dips; Apple gain fails to offset rate worries

It's good to have a boring day once in a while and today qualified with the Dow vacillating within a relatively narrow range and ending the session just 8 points down.  Apple finally had a good day but investors remain concerned about Fed interest rate policy and so today was just so much fence sitting, reflected in the low volume of only 5.9 billion shares.  But as today's expert states, "The market needs to be coddled and gently eased into a slightly higher interest rate environment, and that appears to be what the Fed is doing.  Rates need to normalize and the Fed needs to give itself room to lower again in the event of another financial crisis."  In other words, despite concerns to the contrary, things seem to be on the right track.  But tomorrow is another day.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 5.20.16 (plus The New Market Wizards)

Good news!  U.S. stocks end their 3 week losing streak.  Plus more in this weekend's succinct summation.  Our Sunday bonus this time is a short summary and link to the audio book for the newly revised "The New Market Wizards" complete with all the changes in strategy from the original book.  Enjoy and hope everyone had a great weekend.

10 Weekend Reads

For this weekend, a list of current articles courtesy of Mr. Ritholtz.  Of particular interest are the two dissections of the great mortgage industry fraud that triggered the Great Recession.  Hope everyone's having a good weekend.

Wall Street ends volatile week on high note as tech leads

The market has just about now absorbed the shock of a potential June rate hike with all its gyrations since Wednesday with the odds makers shooting the likelihood of a June hike from 15 to 30 percent in one day.  But that's still a 70 percent chance of no June hike and, as today's expert has so wisely pointed out, it's a "positive dynamic if the market can actually go up in the face of the Fed probability going up."  And as was also pointed out on Wednesday, the Fed will raise rates and the market will be okay.  The combined impact of all of the above was a 65 point bump in the Dow, not a lot but at least in the right direction.  Home resales are doing well which further suggests a better Q2 is in our future.  This is the second day that no volume data was reported but, according to BATS, it was 6.7 billion shares, below the 7.3 billion average.

Stocks weaken, dollar gains amid Fed hike talk

Fed fears still abound regarding the next interest rate hike, the odds makers doubling down just since Tuesday when a June hike was only a 15% likelihood and is today clocking in at 32%.  Truth be told, it is far more likely that any hike won't come until July at the earliest, but even that is much sooner than was expected prior to this week.  To be fair, the fear mongers caused a nearly 200 point drop right out the gate this morning but more rational minds pushed the Dow back up to close just 91 points down by end of session.  As worries about the global economy persist and eyes are on not only our own Fed but the European and Asian central banks as well, every negative report is going to generate a negative reaction even if accompanied by a multitude of more positive reports.  Even though there have been positive reports throughout the week, there was nothing encouraging today as investors continue to try second-guessing Fed policy moves.  Volume was right in line with the 7.3 billion average of the past month.

Bank shares buoy Wall Street as Fed signals possible June hike

Day #2 of panic per the Fed.  It was bad enough that Target became yet another consumer products company to turn in a meager Q1 report.  Even with that though, the market went up 136 points.  Then, like clockwork, at 1:30 p.m., the Dow dropped like a rock - 200 points! - before recovering in the late afternoon to end the session just 3 points down.  It was just about 1:30 when the minutes of the Fed's meeting were published and showed that yesterday's "hint" of a sooner-than-expected interest rate hike was now much more than a hint.  Depending on whether we have a good Q2, the next hike could be coming as soon as June.  This is not what the market wants but - as today's expert opines - it IS time that the Fed normalize policy.  It's time for zero interest to end.  And the markets WILL be okay! --  I suspect this is exactly right and the fact that the Dow recovered so quickly and so completely tells me the smart money thinks so too.  Volume was above average at 8 billion shares.

Wall Street sells off amid Fed rate hike jitters

It was yet another day when good news was taken as bad news.  Since the major economic indicators are showing a steadily improving recovery, it only took the slightest of hints from the Fed that there may be more interest rate hikes later this year.  That's all it took for everyone to run for the exits and drive the Dow down 180 points, thereby erasing all of yesterday's gains (which in itself was not quite enough to make up for Friday's big losses.)  So though the decision was triggered by reports of a healthy recovery, which should be what everyone wants, and though everyone agrees that interest rates must go up to stabilize this very volatile market, nobody but nobody wants them to go up anytime soon.  Investors like the easy borrowing even if they know it's bad for the economy.  The good news from Home Depot's strong Q1 report was not even enough to quell the interest rate fears.  Ironically, despite the good report, Home Depot dropped 2.5% and became the biggest drag on the market.  Bad timing, the Home Depot report might have had the opposite effect had it not been for the Fed hint.  Wal-Mart and Target are yet to come later this week.  Volume was just a little above recent averages at 7.5 billion shares.

Apple, energy shares shine as Wall Street rallies

You know it's a really good day when someone of Warren Buffett's stature gets into the picture and drops a billion dollars on the market.  That and the good news about oil sent the Dow up a big 175 points, almost recouping the whole of yesterday's losses.  Apple has, of course, been the troublemaker for a while now, losing substantial capitalization due to China's problems and its impact on iPhone sales.  But Buffett must feel there's still a great future with the Silicon Valley giant and has simply determined with the company's recent travails that the price has gone low enough to now make it a really great buy.  So today he bought a $1 billion dollar position in Apple.  Oil also went to a six-month high on further news of more supply outages which will help to draw down the big surplus inventories.  And the final bit of good news is that, though the consumer sector that everyone had high hopes but has so far disappointed for Q1, there are still a few giants like Wal-Mart and Target that report later this week, and they may reverse this tide.  6.5 billion shares were traded, a little below the 7.2 billion average of the past month.

Succinct Summation of week’s events 5.13.16 ( + humanity's limits?)

This Sunday's summation includes consumer sentiment and job openings both up as positives and a third straight week of index losses as a negative.  For the bonus, Barry Ritholtz shares with us in today's posting a fascinating seven minute video on the limits of humanity's reach into the realm of discovery, from a strictly scientific perspective of course.  It also serves as a pretty decent seven minute history of the universe.  Anyway, a very entertaining seven minutes to say the least.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.

10 Weekend Reads (plus pension funds)

This weekend's contribution to the cause, courtesy once again of Barry Ritholtz, are ten interesting articles.  You may note that at the top of the list are essays about the virtues of index funds and vices of chasing the big yields.  But the graphic of the trend in recent years of pension funds being invested in hedge funds is what I found most intriguing.  It's also more than a little scary that pension funds are putting retirement dollars at risk by buying into these.  Twenty years ago, not only was this unheard of but it was illegal for pensions to be invested in anything this speculative.  It's especially interesting that this graph would show up on the same list as the articles about index funds vs high yields.  It is an ever-changing world.

Wall Street drops at end of tough week for retailers

The major and very unexpected drubbing that the consumer discretionary sector has taken this week continued in earnest today as Nordstrom, Penney's and Macy's all came in with much worse earnings declines than had been forecast.  As reported last week, not only did the consumer sector fail in expectations to come in with double-digit increases this week but actually came in with losses, many of them double-digits, so the opposite of what was hoped for.  All that being said, even today's report of a 1.3% increase in April retail sales was not enough to prevent the 185 point slump the Dow had today with the release of these latest Q1 reports.  So Q1 is basically over and, even though it wasn't as bad as expected, at least the market had the hope for a considerably better Q2.  The really bad news today is that Q2 is no longer looking so hopeful.  For every S&P company that has forecast better Q2 earnings, there are more than 2 others that are forecasting a worse Q2.  The market reacted with 6.6 billion trades, a little lighter than the 7.2 billion average of the past month.

Wall Street mixed as Apple tumbles to two-year low

Apple, as it has been at times, was once again the market's bane as its continuing iPhone problems triggered a near 200 point nosedive before the Dow recovered with a 9 point gain.   Q1 is basically over with most companies exceeding expectations and the original 7% earnings decline forecast revised a couple weeks ago to 5.5% and today revised upwardly again to a 5.4% decline, this despite yesterday's unexpected reversal in the consumer discretionary sector.  At 7.2 billion shares, volume was in line with recent averages.

Wall Street slumps as Disney and Macy's slam consumer shares

Yesterday's big 222 point gain coming with Amazon's wonderful report were all but completely dashed today with the Dow diving an almost equally big 217 points.  Once again, the old adage "nobody knows anything" was proven.  It seems that the general consensus that the consumer discretionary sector would come in with double-digit earnings against an overall market forecast of a negative 5.5% proved completely wrong when heavy hitters like Disney, Macy's, Office Depot and Staples not only failed to turn in positive double-digits, but actually went negative, many negative in the double-digits.  This was taken as an indicator that the remaining companies in the sector will be reporting likewise and thus triggered the big nosedive.  Why?  Amazon, of course!  Yesterday's blessing proved to be today's curse.  Consumers are buying from Amazon instead of the brick-and-mortar companies.  Shocking!  That is, shocking that this was shocking.  I think most of the rest of us have known for years that this was happening.  As I said, "nobody knows anything."  Volume was near recent averages at 7.0 billion.

Amazon delivers S&P 500 its best day in two months

Just about everything went right today.  The international markets were boosted by both solid earnings in Europe and progress in both Greece and Japan.  Amazon came in big with a record high stock price, boosting the entire market including the Dow up a big 222 points and the S&P now up 2 percent for 2016 after a disastrous beginning and a middling April.  Q1 is considered history (though there are still some big reports coming) and everyone is looking forward to a better Q2.  And oil rose 4 percent on news of supply disruptions to help out with the glut.  A happy day all around with volume at 6.6 billion, a little below recent averages.

Higher health stocks and falling oil leave S&P 500 flat

The Dow down a tad 34 points as the market remains cautious about Q1.  Most of the reporting is in now with an average 5.5 percent decline in earnings but this still is not bad considering the original forecast was for a 7 percent decline.  And the best performers haven't reported yet.  There is still weak data from China so that's not helping matters but, then again, so what's new?  Analysts are giving Q1 a C/C- which seems a tad premature.  And a tad harsh considering how much better results were vs expectations.  Volume was just a little below recent averages at 6.8 billion shares.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 5.7.6 (plus an Internet Minute)

Summation time again and, like last week, the list is unusually lengthy, this time 5 positives and 7 negatives.  The best of the positives is that the ISM index number rose to its best level for the year indicating optimism in the economy.  The negatives weren't really all that negative, most revolving around the weaker than expected payroll report which, as discussed earlier this week, could just as easily have qualified for the positive column.  This Sunday's bonus is a fascinating graphic that shows a fairly detailed representation of what happens every minute of every day on the Internet.  Enjoy, and hope everyone had a great weekend.

Wall St. ends up after jobs report; S&P down for second week

The forecast was for 202,000 new jobs in April, down 13,000 from the 215,000 new jobs in March.  The actual number this morning came in at 160,000 (the smallest job gains since September) which caused an initial sell off before everyone took a breath and decided the number wasn't so bad after all considering the overall growing health of the economy.  Add to that the perversely positive impact that a Fed rate hike might be further delayed by this weaker number, and the Dow actually ended almost 80 points up by close.  But the really good news is that Q1 ain't over yet and the best is yet to come.  The entire discretionary sector is yet to report, coming next week.  And since the overall Q1 has already been adjusted upwards from an expected 7% down to only now a 5.3% down, if the consumer discretionary comes in at the double-digits in the black that are expected, that can change the whole complexion of Q1 very much for the better.  So the suspense continues into next week and volume was in line with recent robust averages at 7.1 billion.

It's nice every now and then to get a boring day and that's what happened today as investors sit on the fence waiting for tomorrow's federal payroll report.  Though the earlier sell off was blamed on a weak private sector report called the worst in three years, if the reporting is correct that this is a predictor for tomorrow's federal report and if the forecast is correct that the federal report will be down only 13,000 additional jobs from the relatively healthy March report, that really isn't bad.  The Reuters report does not say how bad the private sector report is but, the fact is hiring has been robust for quite some time now so if tomorrow's federal report is an indicator, then employment remains in fairly good shape.  The good news is that most Q1 reporting has beaten expectations and earnings, earlier predicted to be down over 7%, has now been revised upward to 5.3 percent.  Volume remains in line with recent elevated averages at 7.3 billion shares.

Wall St. falls as data adds to growth worries; biotechs down

More bad news brought the Dow down again almost another hundred points as the private employment report showed April hiring falling to its lowest in three years after a number of months of it being quite bullish.  As it is also considered to be a precursor to Friday's all important government payrolls report, there was lots of selling today to stem the tide of expected bad news in the next couple days.  "Sell in May and Go Away" has been chanted a lot the past few days in the hallowed halls of high finance as current data appears to justify the traditional warning that stocks don't do well in the summer.  But today's Boston expert contributes the consoling advice that we are after all still at near all-time highs so some short run consolidation has to be expected.  The good news is that the service sector expanded in April and economists forecast an added 202,000 jobs will be on Friday's report, smaller than the March increase but not by much.  Volume was a handsome 7.7 billion shares.

Wall St. loses ground on growth fears, oil slide

Yesterday the bulls were running.  Today it's the bears as the Dow retreated 140 points on a string of bad news including poor manufacturing reports from both China and Britain, oil down 2.5 percent on concerns that the Middle East is not only not cutting output but increasing it, and all three automakers stoking worries that the industry's recovery is slowing down, this despite stronger than expected April sales.  All eyes are now on the payrolls report due Friday.  Volume was above average at 7.8 billion shares.

Wall St. rebounds; Nasdaq breaks seven-day losing run

The bulls are back.  Despite Apple's continuing losing streak, its longest run of losses since 1998, there was a truckload of other good news that brightened investment outlook.  Most S&P companies have beaten Q1 expectations and the prior forecast of profits being down 7 percent have now been upwardly adjusted to 5.7 percent.  U.S. manufacturing is up for the 2nd straight month (as evidenced by the weekend's posting that Buffett was beginning to invest more heavily in that sector) and construction spending is at an 8-1/2 year high.  All in all, the boost to the Dow was 117 points.  Volume was even with recent averages at 7.1 billion.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 4.29.16 (plus Prince's (non) will)

This is one of the most extensive summary lists of the week's events I've seen since I've been doing this blog.  But with nine positives and nine negatives, at least it's balanced.   The most encouraging positive is that Japan's new negative interest rate policy (that is when the government charges you for saving) hasn't worked out so well so it's not likely other countries, let alone Uncle Sam, will be following suit.  The most encouraging negative is consumer confidence down to 89.0, but it was expected to be 90.0 and that ain't much of a decline.  This Sunday's bonus is an article from today's Washington Post about the nightmare being created by the negligence of rock star Prince to make a will.  The moral for the day:  everybody needs a will because nobody knows when they're going to go.  The headaches that will encumber your heirs if you fail to leave a will are beyond description.  So if you don't have one, get to it.  That is the sort of advice any CFP would give you, so why not this CFP-in-training?  Hope everyone had a great weekend!

10 Weekend Reads (plus Warren Buffett's portfolio)

Among this week's notable "Weekend Reads" are an interview with IMF head Christine LaGarde, an analysis courtesy of The Atlantic of the decline in the U.S. crime rate during the past 25 years and, last but not least, a definitive portrait of the real Donald Trump brought to you by the five people who know him best.  Politico brought them all together for a conversation.  Since it looks more and more likely with each passing primary that he may very well be the Republican nominee, this is an opportunity to cut through all the campaign PR and get the facts right from the source.  In addition to all the above, I would urge everyone to study the very revealing graphic at the bottom of the list showing, sector by sector, all of Warren Buffett's holdings.  To me at least, it came as quite a surprise that he was so lightly invested in financial firms and so heavily in railroads and manufacturing.   And, of course, the insurance industry, though the whole point of the graphic is to illustrate how he has been steadily cutting back on insurance and building up his manufacturing investments.   Thus, according to the Gospel according to Warren, U.S. manufacturing is coming back.  Start buying! Submitted for your consideration, as following his lead may not be unwise.

Wall Street falls as earnings weigh; Dow, S&P up for month

Apple has lost ten of the past eleven sessions and a total of 11.3 percent of its market value this week alone.  Gilead, Corning, Goodyear, and Xerox all came in this week with double-digit declines in Q1 earnings.  The Dow and S&P are both down 1.3% for the week and Nasdaq 2.7 percent.  These combined forces are what triggered yesterday's 210 point sell off which continued today to the tune of another 57 points.  The good news is that the materials sectors gained 4.9% in April making it the third consecutive month of increases totaling 20 percent, the largest of any sector in the past seven years.  Amazon also brought in a stellar Q1 report which jolted its stock nearly 10% in one day.  Volume was very high at 9 billion.

Wall Street sinks on BOJ fears, Icahn comments

Today's really good news could not even begin to outweigh the bad news as the Dow plunged 210 points and the S&P had its worst day in three weeks.  As Facebook's stellar Q1 report came in after yesterday's bell, it was expected to create a rally this morning, which it did for a short while.  But this was quickly followed by a string of shocking announcements including the Bank of Japan's call to cap stimulus, which sent the global markets reeling.  But this was nothing compared to investor Carl Icahn's statement that he had divested himself of his Apple holdings considering the giant company along with the rest of the market entirely too risky and issuing the dire warning of "a day of reckoning."  Keep in mind he's done this before and his predicted cataclysm never materializes.  But it was more than enough to send the ailing Apple's stock down yet another 3 percent and the indexes reeling all the more.  The good news that all the indexes remain at near record highs and that the stock market is now in its second longest bull run in history was not enough to stem the sell off.  The lesson for the day is how important central bank policy is to the market so any hint that the policy might change sends everyone running to the exits.  Volume was high at 8.1 billion shares.

Wall Street ticks up as hawkish Fed fears ebb; Apple weighs

A modest 51 point gain today as investors rested a bit easier on Fed assurances that there would be no interest rate hikes in the near future and that, despite that, the economy continues headed in a positive direction.  Apple was the big drag because of the big slump in their iPhone sales but then, when two-thirds of your business comes from a single product and demand suddenly drops for that product, it's going to make an impact.  Facebook had an excellent day but not until after close so we'll be seeing the impact of that in the next couple days.  Exxon also hit its highest level in a year.  The Fed's reassuring statements seem to have sparked a little more enthusiasm as volume was above average at 7.4 billion.

S&P500 index buoyed by commodity sectors; Apple drags futures lower

What looked like a lackluster session with the Dow gaining a modest 13 points actually had quite a lot of tumult as the index jumped 50 points right out the gate, then dumped a hundred by midday only to recover in the afternoon session to close modestly up.  So though it ended nearly even, there was lot of tug-of-war in between.  The main drags were Apple, Twitter, 3M and P&G all of which had either or both disappointing Q1 revenues and earnings.  The good news is that the bulls are still very much in control with the S&P holding near its record high from a year ago, impressive after the January drubbing.  More bad news included declining demand for such staples as cars, computers and appliances.  This decline in durable goods has weakened the dollar which in turn has been good for oil which was up over 3 percent.  Every cloud has a silver lining.  But there's still a lot of money on the sidelines as investors wait for more news.  This was evidenced by the continued below average volume of 6.5 billion shares.

Wall St. ends slightly lower on energy, earnings

The Q1 reports keep pouring in and they are now veering more towards the forecasts of the pessimists, which took the Dow down almost 150 points right out the gate but then steadily recovered throughout the session to close just 26 points down.  At near record-highs, investors are having a hard time justifying pushing the market still higher.  As of today, a quarter of the S&P has reported and 59% are above expectations with 60% being the average.  Just last week, 77% had exceeded expectations putting it way above average, so there's been quite a let down the last few days.  Still, with three-quarters left to go, there's still a lot of wiggle room left.  This is reflected in the relatively light volume of 6.0 billion against recent averages of 6.9 billion.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events April 22nd 2016 ( + Index Funds & Breaking the Banks)

It's time for the weekly eye-shot again, and this time it's a lengthy list with the positives and negatives just about even, though I'm not sure why the death of Prince makes it into the negative column in the grand scheme of global market economics.  This Sunday's bonuses include Barry Ritholtz's informative Friday column about index funds as they relate to efficient market theory ... AND ... fresh off the presses from today's The Big Picture, a fascinating April 4th paper from the Federal Reserve outlining how all the biggest banks might be broken up.  A longer than average read but, it's not just an intriguing look into a possible future, but also a pretty instructive overview of how banking works.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.

10 Weekend Reads

This weekend's reading list includes an article on the importance of that one indefinable denominator we call "luck," courtesy of The Atlantic, an analysis of the FBI/Apple controversy from Charlie's Diary, and a short course in modern art.  For those of you interested in some really high falutin stuff, this week's Masters In Business interview is an in-depth discussion on the Charter Financial Analyst designation and exam.

Wall Street ends flat; Alphabet and Microsoft tumble

The Dow finished over 20 points up today but not before it went 120 points in the red for most of the session.  Intel and Facebook both fell, Microsoft dropped over 7 percent and became the biggest drag on the S&P while Alphabet/Google had its worst day in four years.  Oil got a 1% boost from stronger U.S. demand and lower global production.  Last week the Q1 forecast was for a 7.7% loss in profits.  Yesterday that was revised to 7.2%.  So far the reporting companies have averaged a 7.1% loss.  Volume was a little above recent averages at 7.1 billion.

Wall Street cedes ground after mixed bag of earnings

Today's good Q1 came from American Express, Mattel, Under Armour, and General Motors. Bad Q1 came from Verizon, Microsoft and Travelers, the latter coming in particularly bad with a 17% decline in profits. But it was the combine of Travelers, and Verizon's warning that their strike would likely hurt them (isn't that the whole point?), that sent the Dow on a steady 113 point dive all day long almost directly from the open.  Alphabet's (formerly Google) bad Q1 also came in but after the bell so we will see the impact of that tomorrow.  The day's good news included the fact that so far 77% of all companies have beaten profit estimates compared to the 63% surprise in a typical quarter.  Again, the dire forecasts may have something to do with the fact that results are better than expected.  And even though oil was down one percent today, it is still at a five-month high.  In fact, despite all the doom and gloom, all the indexes hover near historic highs.  Volume was above average at 7.3 billion shares.

Wall Street flirts with record high levels as companies report

Today's Q1:  VM Ware, Discover, St. Jude Medical good; Coca-Cola bad.  Qualcomm very bad.  But home resales rose more in March signaling a continuing real estate recovery and oil also had another very good day with reports again that inventories were lower than expected.  (Who wants to bet that in the next few days there will be another report that inventories are higher after all?  That seems to be the trend the last few months.  Again, how difficult can it be to count barrels?)  Bottom line - the Dow up a modest 42, but it was up over 100 points as late as 3 p.m.  Trading was above average at 7.5 billion.

Wall Street nears record as quarterly reports roll in

J&J came in today with solid Q1.  So did Yahoo and Goldman Sachs.  IBM came in poorly.  But the most surprising news of the day is that oil got a boost from, of all places, the current strike by oil workers in Kuwait.  Couldn't get the oil producers to cut back so now good old fashioned unionism is forcing a cutback and one that is much welcome on Wall Street.  There is just so much room for irony in this business.  The net result was a 49 point bump in the Dow but the daily chart shows actually a 100 point range in peaks and valleys.  At 7.1 billion, volume was a little above recent averages.

Dow reclaims 18,000 as quarterly scorecards start to flow

Oil and the Dow should have been hit today, but instead both went up a good deal, the Dow a very handsome 106 points after Sunday's talk among major oil producers to trim greatly excessive inventories collapsed.  Disney and Hasbro saved the day with very good Q1 reports, bringing the Dow back over the historic 18,000 mark for the first since July.  But investors remain cautious awaiting more Q1, many more coming this week.  Volume was below recent averages at 6.1 billion.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 4.15.16 (plus "Looking Smart" plus Pt II on the National Debt)

Once again it's time for the weekly eye-shot.  This Sunday's bonuses include a particularly insightful set of tips on how to master that all important art of the first impression and make people (like interviewers, bosses, clients, reporters) think you're smart (from a source no less respected than The Atlantic), plus the second of two articles I've found this weekend on the pros and cons of the national debt, this one courtesy of Slate via The Big Picture.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  Looking forward to New York on Tuesday and what impact it may have on the presidential race.  Will it cement the current front runners for good, or completely change the direction of all the campaigns?

The Pros and Cons of Being Super Rich (plus Time Magazine LOL)

Our bonuses this weekend begin with this interesting article pulled from LinkedIn concerning super wealth and an even more interesting article critical of those who are critical of the national debt.  These both provide interesting perspectives on these issues that you're not likely to find in the more traditional financial media, and for that reason alone are well worth a look.

Apple, energy shares weigh on Wall Street, but week shows gains

Yesterday gave us a modest 18 point gain and today it was a nearly just as modest 28 point loss on the Dow as investors continue playing wait-and-see on Q1 earnings, the market still digesting B of A's very sharp drop in profits yesterday.  But of course, next week there will be a lot more reports, so stay tuned.  Also to put things in perspective, this is the 7th week of gains out of nine so, though there is caution evidenced by the lower than average volume of 6.6 billion, we're still approaching 18,000 so we're at historic highs.  There are more than a few analysts out there who feel we're in for a rally since, just as banking rose above expectations vs the dire forecast, it is more than a remote possibility that there will be pleasant surprises from other sectors as well.

Financial shares mint fifth day of gains; indexes close flat

The gains continue, though today only to the very modest tune of 18 points as the markets take a breath after two big rallies and wait for more Q1 reports.  B of A came in strongest with profits, though down, only down as far as expected.  Wells Fargo's earnings were also down and, though not as much as B of A, but due to bad energy loans that they've had a difficult time covering.  The relatively low volume of 6.7 billion indicates investors are awaiting more reports.

Indexes gain at least 1 percent as financial shares lead

Yesterday's rally in energy turned into today's rally in the financial sector with JP Morgan turning in Q1 earnings exceeding the dire forecasts, thereby sending the Dow up 187 points and JP Morgan shares up 4.2 percent.  It was quite enough to boost the S&P to a four month high (and once again in positive territory for 2016), the Nasdaq to a 2016 high, and the Dow to a five month high.  There was even good news from China showing exports returning to growth for the first time in nine months, doubly good news since this is being taken as a sign that the world's second largest economy is finally stabilizing.  And we're just getting started.  Reporting from B of A and Wells Fargo due tomorrow.  Volume was above recent averages at 7.6 billion shares.

Surging energy shares boost Wall Street as earnings kick off

So everyone's busy buying up shares since the very pessimistic Q1 profits forecast is almost certain to result in some short term rallies, even if the first company to report in yesterday, Alcoa, did disappoint.  But what really buttressed today's market and shot the Dow up 164 points was the new agreement announced between Russia and Saudi Arabia to at long last freeze oil production in this badly overextended and glutted energy environment.  And that's in addition to this Sunday's meeting of oil producers where it is expected that a similar deal will be brokered.  The short term effect has been to shoot crude to a 4-month high today and oil, down in the 30's just a couple weeks ago, was up to $45 per barrel today.  The rallies have already begun and Q1 is just barely getting started.  Volume was a little above recent averages at 7.5 billion.

Wall Street closes lower as investors ready for earnings

It was another wild rollercoaster ride with the market swinging back and forth in a 175 point range as investors debate what Q1 is going to look like.  The first hint came after the bell with Alcoa reporting lower profits, which should have come as no surprise as, after all, they are an aluminum company and commodities have been hit hardest lately.  Next up are the big banks including JP Morgan, Citigroup and B of A, all of which should fare better since, generally speaking, what's bad for commodities is good for the financial sector.  But with volume below average at 6.5 billion and the ultimate hit to the day's Dow being only 20 points, all indicators are that most are still sitting on the fence waiting for more Q1.  As has been very consistently the trend lately, the actuals will almost certainly exceed the very pessimistic forecast so there are likely rallies in our future.  Start buying.

Succinct Summations for Week’s Events April 8 2016 (plus Pain Management)

It's that time for the weekly big picture according to "The Big Picture."  The week's bonus includes an article on legal ways to hide income per The New York Times and a very instructive chart explaining pain management (investment pain that is) per the (not always wonderful) changes going on in China during the past few years.  (The graphic will not transfer to this blog so you'll have to click on the link to see it.)  Hope everyone had a great weekend.

How Imminent is a Recession?

Lots of talk about looming recession lately.  Just what are the odds?  Here's Barry Ritholtz's take on the whole question.  It may surprise some of you.

How Imminent is a Recession? - The Big Picture

Wall St. ends higher but indexes post weekly losses

"Twas another day of rollercoaster madness with the Dow swinging back and forth in a 160 point radius before closing 35 points up.  What went on was more Wall Street lunacy.  I've mentioned it before and I'll mention it again -- is it really that hard to count barrels?  Two days ago we were up 112 because stockpiles were said to be drawn down.  Yesterday we were down 174 when data showed inventories were higher again.  Today they're back to reporting lower counts again and oil shot up more than six percent.  But it doesn't matter much.  Whatever is going on with oil is soon to take a back seat.  Volume was very light at 6.3 billion shares as investors wait for Q1 reports which begin next week when Alcoa and four major banks chime in.  The expectation is for a 7.6 percent loss, so if the actual picture is better than that, we'll see more rallies, just as we've seen in the last four quarters.

Wall St. falls amid global growth worries

It seems the market has digested the recent good news concerning oil so today it was back to worrying once again about China, Europe and the rest of the world, especially with the statement from the ECB declaring that the global economic outlook had gotten worse and that central bank policy would likely have limited effect.  This all sent investors into a selling spree sending the Dow down 174 points and wiping out all S&P gains for the year thus far.  Naturally, crude oil settled lower too.  Curiously yesterday's reports stated that there had been significant drawdowns in U.S. crude stockpiles but today another report stated exactly the opposite driving the black stuff down 2.7 percent.  This seems to be happening with an odd regularity. One day they say we're depleting, the next it's a glut.  Is it really that hard to count barrels of oil?  Q1 still weighs heavily on everyone's mind with expected losses looming.  This also happens with an odd regularity, commented on today that "the recent drop in earnings forecasts could result in more positive surprises," just as it did all last year.  Is this just a trick to drive up stock prices?  Volume was right in line with recent averages at 7.2 billion shares.

Wall Street rises with healthcare; oil rallies

Yesterday the good news from Kuwait concerning oil stockpiles didn't make a dent in this anxiety-ridden market, investors instead preferring to obsess over expected anemic Q1 earnings.  Today, the Q1 picture suddenly takes a back seat as the market reevaluates the crude crisis with new data showing an unexpected drawdown in stockpiles.  This combined with good news from the pharma sector -- the Pfizer/Allergan merger went kaput -- sent the Dow up 112 big ones.  (Ordinarily, mergers are taken as good news, but not in this case.)  All in all, investors are still on the fence waiting for the Q1 numbers to start rolling in but, at 6.9 billion, volume was still close to recent averages.

After rally, earnings gloom takes hold on Wall Street

Since yesterday's modest drop was attributed in some circles to another drop in oil due to continuing doubts over a production freeze, you'd think that today's news from Kuwait that the freeze may very well happen after all (which incidentally helped stabilize crude for the day), that the market would react positively.  Instead we saw a 133 point drop in the Dow, which can only now be blamed on the fickleness of the market.  Wishes change hour by hour and now that oil is getting some much needed help, the market has moved on already to a new problem -- Q1 earnings, which are expected to be poor.  But since that same forecast was made during the last four quarters and, in each case, proved to be false, this may be the time to buy as almost certainly profits will be better than expected, shooting prices up again.  At 7.2 billion, volume was just about even with recent averages.

Wall Street pulls back after recent rally

Okay, I guess you can call this a pullback even though the chart shows that the index fell almost a hundred points before rallying again to close just 55 points down.  Is one person's pullback another's rally?  Whatever it was, it was on relatively modest volume of 6.4 billion with relatively modest results so maybe it wasn't much of either.  What did happen is that investors became ever more doubtful that the deal among oil producers to freeze production is ever going to happen, which sent oil down over 2 percent again today and, as oil goes lately, so goes the market.  But since the index only went down 1/3%, it doesn't go as much.  In other words, not a terribly eventful day.  Everyone is waiting for Q1 results, expecting a 7.1% loss.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events April 1 2016 (plus Recession & Kasich)

It's that time for the most popular post each week, the one-page eye shot.  Our bonuses this Sunday include  another wonderful article why the doomsayers really should be ignored ... for the obvious reason that they have an abysmal track record, something that never seems to bother either them or their fans. And though Trump supporters believe he's a shoo-in to be the next President and continue to predict rioting in the streets if he's squeezed out in a brokered convention, here -- straight from the heart of Wall Street, the head wizard of them all, Barron's, gives its take on why Kasich, the only Republican candidate I can stomach (let alone respect, as does The New York Times) still has a (good) chance of emerging as the nominee from (what will now almost surely be) a brokered convention.  Spring break is over.  Back to work tomorrow!

Barron’s: Whose Better for Investors, Kasich, Cruz or Trump? - The Big Picture

Overestimating Recession Odds - The Big Picture

Invest With The House: Hacking The Top Hedge Funds eBook: Meb Fabe

For this first Saturday of April, I will share a brand new book by one of our favorite gurus, the author of "The Ivy Portfolio," none other than Mebane Faber himself.

Amazon.com: Invest With The House: Hacking The Top Hedge Funds eBook: Meb Fabe

Wall Street off to a solid start in April

Good news from the job front and factory output put investors a little more at ease today about upcoming expected poor Q1 profits, the good news indicating solid gains that may speak much better for earnings after all.  Unemployment rose a tad from 4.9 to 5.0% but even this was good news since it means that workers who had previously dropped out of the market are now reentering it due to the progressing recovery.  All in all, it was enough to boost the Dow another 107 points though, once again, the naysayers nearly ruined it all by trying to hedge their bets at open with a selloff that cost the index a hundred points right out the gate, all of which was later recovered with 107 points to spare.  But it would have been 200 if there had been more faith.  Oil once again had a bad day though, dropping 4 percent on news that the expected deal to freeze production may not happen after all.  Volume was 7 billion, not too far from the 7.6 4-week average.