9 of the Best REITs to Buy for 2023

For those interested in enjoying the profits of real estate without the burden of actually owning and maintaining physical property, REITs are the answer.  Here is the latest from U.S. News Invested on REITs for 2023.  

Don't Fight the Fed

And yet another one of Consuelo Mack's guests with the cogent advice of "Don't Fight the Fed!"  

Wall St climbs as strong earnings offset slowdown worries, Fed meeting in focus

For a second consecutive day we’ve had a rally. Part of it is leftover exuberance from yesterday but most of it is the result of a stunning Q1 report from Exxon that has finally sealed the deal with investors that “it’s not turning into a bad earnings season at all.”  Economic data on Friday also sealed the deal on easing fears of a sharp slowdown, also reflected in the VIX registering at just under 16, its lowest in 18 months. 

Wall St rallies as earnings season boost offsets economy worries

Ever since Q1 reporting started and despite the fact that it’s come in considerably better than expected, investors have been skeptical and have stayed in sell mode due to skepticism that the early results couldn’t last. Today that ended.  Today a terrific Q1 report from Facebook/Meta changed all that and the direction of the overall market direction with investors finally now looking past negative macro data. 

Nasdaq climbs as investors cheer Microsoft, Alphabet results

Same pattern as yesterday with lots of up and down action until noon when all the indexes went deeply south, the Dow down 228 points.  The Nasdaq ended modestly in the black but was up 165 at noon.  It was the Transportation sector that came in weak as it’s tied to overall fears of general economic weakness and only strong results from Microsoft and Google boosted the tech sector.  None of it makes a lot of sense since Q1 has been going much better than expected, so much so that yesterday’s forecast of a 3.9% contraction was today changed to a 3.2%.  

Wall St sinks as weak earnings fan fears of economic slowdown

UPS reporting a slowdown which was in turn taken as projecting a slowing of the entire U.S. economy sent all the markets down from the open, but then crashing precipitously at 1 p.m. That must have been when First Republic reported a loss of $100 billion in deposits during Q1 raising again the specter of failing regional banks, bringing the Regional Banking Index down 3.9%.  Volume for once was a little above average at about 10.8 billion. 

Nasdaq underperforms on worries about tech earnings ahead

The pattern continues with much up and down (mostly down) seesaw action and closing again near break-even while investors still try to decide whether Q1 will bring good news or bad.  The confusion – and caution! – has been exacerbated by the very low expectations with which Q1 began but now with much better-than-expected results coming in combined with a very real fear that it won’t last. Today’s megacap disappointments did not help though results have more or less been steady in light of strong results from the big banks allaying fears that the recent bank crisis is not spreading. With nearly 20% of the S&P now reporting, 77% have beaten estimates vs an historical average of 66.  Still the skepticism abounds awaiting reports from more major companies as the week progresses. Volume is still well below average at just over 9.5 billion. 

Market Problems

An up to date discussion of the current state of the markets:  

7 Best Defensive Stocks for a Steady Return on Investment

After another very volatile week in the stock market, let's have an updated look at the best defensive stocks that pay reliable dividends.  

Wall St posts slim gain ahead of big earnings week

The pattern continues with continual seesawing between red and black in all the indexes and again closing near break-even as investors continue to weight inflation vs recession and hoping for some clarity from earnings season, data which so far has been mixed.  Today’s “bad” news showing accelerated business activity indicating the desired weakening economy for inflation fighting but also plenty resilient enough to withstand more rate hikes. Next week will bring a massive number of new earnings reports from many heavy hitters including Microsoft, Google and Amazon so the market remains in a holding pattern which is reflected in the still below average volume of 9.9 billion. 

Wall St slides after gloomy earnings led by Tesla

It was a wild and wooly ride on the dark side today as all indexes spent the entire session in the red, the Dow down over 200 at one point, if but for a very brief moment coming near break-even right around 2 pm.  The consensus: “The market has been overbought for the last week or two. To start earnings season, you are going to see that demand is slowing, corporate profits are coming down, and there really isn’t a whole lot of catalysts to motivate buyers.” 

Dow dips, S&P 500 stable after medtech gains, Netflix drag

It was another day of all the indexes spending much of the day in the red and then rallying mid-day to close near break-even again, except the Dow that stayed in the red and closed down 79.  It was another day of investors struggling with the question of recession vs soft-landing, all of which is now pegged to good Q1 results which so far have been mixed.  As today’s expert put it, “Corporate results are being seen in large part company-specific news vs market news. That keeps us relatively calm and unchanged for now.”  The VIX hit its lowest point since November 2021, which seems to support the soft-landing view. It was ironic that Netflix fell on news of a light forecast one day after announcing they would eliminate their DVD business.  Volume is still below average and creeping closer at 10 billion. 

S&P 500 ekes out gain as tech supports, J&J, Goldman disappoint

All the indexes spent a good part of the day in the red, the Dow down some 200 points by 10:30 before beginning a steady recovery for the rest of the session.  All three closed near break-even as investors struggle to decide whether earnings will be good news or bad, whether the economy is on the cusp of a downturn or not. As today’s expert put it, “It’s the calm before the storm. Do we have an upside here or not? It is really going to come down to earnings over the next couple of weeks.” 

Wall St ends higher; investors await earnings, Fed cues

All the indexes spent most of the day in the red, the Dow down about 90 points, until 2 pm when there was a sudden resurgence bringing the market moderately into the black by close. The session’s caution was characterized as “wait-and-see” with corporate earnings and the Fed rate decision coming in the next couple of weeks. The New York Fed today said that manufacturing had increased in April, solidifying the case for another rate hike, that the economy is strong enough to take it. More big banks are reporting this week as well as heavy hitters like J&J and Netflix.  The majority consensus remains for a ¼ point rate hike in May. Volume remains light at 10 billion. 

Top 7 Autonomous Vehicle Stocks to Buy Now

AI is truly the Brave New World Aldous Huxley wrote about so elegantly and tonight's episode of 60 Minutes amply demonstrated the impacts, both positive and negative, it can have on our future world.  And AI is already here.  Last month, the Writers Guild would not renew their contracts unless producers would guarantee writers full pay even if the producer ultimately used AI to write the script. That's how prevalent it's already become in the entertainment industry.  I would never want to get into a car that was guided solely by AI, trusting it would avoid accidents better than sober and alert human reaction.  I personally don't want to go near autonomous vehicles with a ten foot pole, but for those of you who believe in them, here are the latest hot picks.  

AAII Investor Update: Warning Signs That Companies Are in Big Trouble

Here's Thursday's AAII taking the pessimistic view:  

Wall St dips to lower close as rate hike bets firm, banks jump

This is why investing is so much fun. When I first saw today’s diving market numbers, I assumed the long-awaited bank reports did not have good news.  But quite the contrary, the big three banks beat expectations and further data showed industrial production and capacity utilization came in strong. So what’s the bad news? Well, the markets see it as confirming that the financial sector was not adversely impacted by recent bank failures and that showed vibrancy and resiliency.  

Wall St rallies to higher close as inflation data feeds Fed pause hopes

Today’s PPI report came in with an emphatic demonstration that inflation was coming down, the graph below showing it now well below the 4% mark, getting considerably closer to the Fed’s 2% goal.  This of course heightened encouragement that the Fed may soon be pausing rate hikes, which caused all the indexes to rally big time, the Dow up 383 points.  Q1 reporting coming Friday from the big banks will provide a clearer picture of how the financial sector is faring vs the recent crisis.  Volume remains below average at 10.4 billion and will like stay below average until a much better Q1 picture emerges. 

Wall Street closes lower after Fed minutes, inflation data

The indexes seesawed between black and red all day, the Dow up some 200 points by 2 pm. Then, right at 2 pm, the whole market went south with everything closing in the red.  It must have been right at 2 pm that the Fed issued its minutes stating concerns about regional bank liquidity and, despite a CPI report showing inflation cooling, there was still considerable anxiety in those last two hours.  

Wall St ends mixed as inflation data comes into focus

The Dow and S&P started the day at Ground Zero and rose steadily, the Dow gaining about 200 points. The Nasdaq too started at zero, and then fell precipitously until about noon when it too began a steady recovery almost to break-even.  Then, about 3:30, all three dropped like a rock, the Dow still hanging on to about half of its gain but the other two closing in the red, the Nasdaq deeply.  The surge was attributed to a consensus that inflation worries are overblown, especially on the heels of Chicago Fed prez warning the Fed not to raise rates again. Also, cyclicals doing well is taken as a healthy sign against recession.  

Wall Street ends mixed with inflation data, earnings on tap

All three indexes started the day deeply in the red, the Dow down 140 points, all on the heels of Friday’s employment report that now has the odds of a ¼ point rate hike increased dramatically to 72% and with it the increased ugly specter of recession.  However, the entire day after open was spent in recovery with the Nasdaq and S&P reaching break-even by close and the Dow gaining 101 points. With more inflation reports due later this week, perhaps investors decided the doom and gloom was premature. Or, as today’s expert put it, “There’s clearly a disconnect between what the Fed is telling us they’re going to do and what the market believes the Fed is going to do.”  This despite the fact that the Fed has a long history of doing what they say.  

Retirement Blind Spots

It's that time of year to revive one of our favorite topics -- surviving retirement!  Hope everyone had a great holiday.  

Happy Easter

Happy Easter!

9 of the Best Bond ETFs to Buy in 2023

With the stock market in such turmoil for such a long time now, bonds have become a safe haven. With that in mind, I submit today's issue of U.S. News Invested.  

Wall Street ends higher as investors eye upcoming jobs data

All the indexes started the day in the red, the Dow quite a lot in the red, and then all gained ground throughout the day to end on gains, the Dow being excepted going mildly into the black in the afternoon before sliding back into losses and then regaining ground just before close to break-even.  It was the same story as the last two days:  “The market is waffling between whether a softening labor market is good news because it gets the Fed to pause or bad news because it means a recession is actually coming.”  All eyes will be on the non-farm payrolls expected to show about 70,000 fewer jobs but is due on Friday when the markets will be closed for Good Friday.  Due to the holiday, volume was very light at just 9 billion. 

S&P 500 ends lower as recession fears take center stage

This was one of those rare days where none of the indexes followed the same pattern. The Dow was up and down all day but closed up.  The Nasdaq was pretty much down for the count right out the gate, and stayed that way while the S&P took a dive right out the gate but then reversed course right around noon to close near break-even. But sentiment was the same as yesterday. Whereas weak data has been considered a good sign of weakening inflation, today again it also triggered recession fears, especially with today’s second report of weak hiring. But there was at least acknowledgment as stated by today’s expert, “We may have transitioned from the notion that ‘bad news is good news’ to ‘bad news is bad news.’”  Remarkably, the oddsmakers now suddenly put yesterday’s 42 vs 58% in favor of a pause to today’s 40 vs 60 in favor of an actual cut.  Volume remains light at 10.1 billion. 

Wall Street ends down as weak economic data fuels recession fears

Today was another case of the markets not quite able to decide what they want. On the one hand, we’ve been waiting a long time for the economy to cool off hoping that will reassure the Fed that inflation is coming down and will pause the rate hikes and avert recession. Today there was nothing but good news on that front, cooling data actually flipping the oddsmakers now with ¼ point vs no hike at a remarkable 42 vs 58%.  But today investors feared that the cooling economy may itself trigger recession and thus all the indexes went south almost immediately, the Dow down 198 points.  Yesterday, weakening manufacturing was good news; today combined with decreasing job openings, it’s bad news.  Volume remains light at 10.3 billion. 

S&P 500 ends higher as oil stocks rally; Tesla tumbles

It was a volatile session for the S&P and Nasdaq with the S&P back and forth between black and red a few times and the Nasdaq sinking big time after 10 a.m. and staying down until 2 pm before recovering to a modest 32 point loss.  The Dow fared much better, always in the black but sinking a little mid-morning before going into an all-afternoon rally.  Energy stocks provided the rallies as OPEC+ cut output unexpectedly, but of course this also triggered more inflation worries.  These worries were however placated by a drop in manufacturing.  Odds for ¼ point vs no rate hike are today at 56/44, up from 50/50 on Friday. Despite the day’s results, the S&P is up 7% for Q1, the Nasdaq 17%.  Volume was light at 10.9 billion. 

10 Best Energy Stocks to Buy in 2023

The energy sector being such a major part of the index, this week's issue of U.S. News Invested seemed particularly relevant.  Hope everyone had a nice weekend.  

Continued Market Volatility Benefits Those With Cash

For your weekend pleasure, more market ideas courtesy of this week's AAII.