Wall Street ends up on recovery expectation

For this last full day of trading for 2020 we saw the Dow inching to a new record with investor optimism about the outlook for 2021 which, put another way, means it’s got to be better than 2020.  A bigger stimulus pretty much got nixed by McConnell today but as today’s expert put it, “Something’s better than nothing but there’s a lot of politics involved.” That’s really a glass half-full attitude but the real issue now is the Georgia run-off on January 5^th.  So the Dow was up 74 points and the S&P is coming into year-end 15.5% up on the year.  For the final week of the year trading is of course subdued with volume below the 4-week average at just under 9.6 billion.   

Wall St dips from record levels, additional stimulus uncertain

Everything was going swimmingly until about noon with the Dow and other indexes all hitting intraday record highs.  Then McConnell announced that there would be no immediate consideration of increased stimulus payments and that sent everything crashing down for all the indexes to close with modest losses, the Dow down 68 points. To be fair, he’s not killing it, simply postponing it to include the debate on other issues including big tech and election integrity. But his failure to endorse sent the markets from green to red.  The S&P will close the year 15.4% up if the two remaining trading days hold no major surprises and volume will continue to be light compared to recent averages, as it was today at just under 9.5 billion. 

Wall Street climbs to record as fiscal aid bill signed

Trump’s late night signing of the relief bill sent the markets way up again (who says this stuff is already priced in?), the Dow soaring 204 points.  The Democrats wasted no time putting together a package for higher relief payments but it’s doubtful it’ll get past the Senate. The S&P is well positioned  to finish the year up 15 percent despite substantial worrisome headwinds which may prove problematic in 2021.  Volume for this final week will be thin and indeed came in today below the 4-week average at 9.9 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 12.25.20 (plus the federal budget)

Below please find the usual weekly summation, this week being abbreviated due to the holidays. Nonetheless, the positives and negatives have remained mostly unchanged, the main positive being the distribution of the vaccine, this week going to 3.3 million Americans. The main negative besides being another terrible pandemic week with more than 3,000 deaths daily is the president creating more chaos in vetoing the relief  bill.  (As of Sunday night, the news is he has now signed the bill!) 

The Beatles Sneak Peek

Hey, it's Christmas!  Let's have one day when we're just having fun and not talking finance. In that spirit, here is today's post from Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture blog.  Enjoy. 

Lifetime Learning - a special Christmas gift from WealthTrack

Merry Christmas to one and all and very befitting for this holiday is a special gift from Consuelo Mack at PBS's WealthTrack, her program this week being with Charley Ellis and his books on lifetime lessons in investing. He has taught investing for years at Yale, Harvard, and Princeton. Who needs an Ivy League degree when you have WealthTrack? Enjoy the program. Enjoy the books. And enjoy the holiday, stay well!  

Wall Street closes with a modest gains on Brexit deal, stimulus hopes

The markets closed modestly higher with hopes pinned to an imminent stimulus agreement and brighter days from the vaccine rollout. The UK completing the Brexit today also boosted optimism. Due to the shortened holiday week and a shortened trading day for Christmas Eve, volume was about half the usual at about 6.1 billion. 

S&P 500 ends slightly higher as investors bet on recovery

The Dow closed up 114 points on this final full day of trading before Christmas with investors showing confidence in a recovery in 2021 by once again rotating into the traditional cyclical stocks that will most benefit from a recovering economy. As today’s expert put it, “Hope is out there.” The downside is that there remains the possibility of a government shutdown after all since Trump’s veto threat. But given the overwhelming bipartisan support for the bill, he may well be looking at his first override. Today’s data shows a decrease in joblessness and factory orders up but also declining spending, personal income and sentiment. There was a mild uptick in the 4-week average as volume came in at 12.2 billion. 

S&P 500 ends lower as new COVID storm clouds overshadow stimulus passage

For the third day the markets were on a straight trajectory down but this time did not recover and the Dow closed 200 points down. This was all triggered by further consideration of the mutant COVID strain coming from the UK and how this might impact both the pandemic progress and the recovery. Or, as today’s expert put it, “Today the market is catching its breath,” or put another way another day of profit-taking. The pandemic continues to violently surge with over 200K new infections each day, making for extreme market volatility.  2020 will indeed be unique as our expert also put it, “This will be the first year in history when stocks were off 30% for the year at one point and finished in the green.”  Volume was again very close to the 4-week average at 11.0 billion. 

S&P 500 ends lower as COVID worries lightened by stimulus

All three indexes were big time in the red today all the way up until nearly close when they all recovered to near break-even. This was the consequence of dealing with the bad news of the new strain of COVID in the UK (though U.S. health officials say the 2 current vaccines should still be effective against) and the stimulus package, which passed today.  The package was not as much as was hoped for but “appears big enough to hold off a recession.”  The traditional “Santa rally” has not yet taken place, though may be in force tomorrow now that stimulus is done and the checks expected out next week. Volume was right in line with the 4-week average at 11.6 billion. 

Week’s Events for 12.18.20 (plus COVID'S ECONOMIC IMPACT)

Below is the usual Sunday night weekly summation, the main positive being the beginning of the vaccine rollout and one that happened tonight after this was published on Friday -- the passage of the stimulus bill!  The main negative remains the deadliest day yet for the pandemic -- and a new major negative this week -- the massive Russian hack of our most secretive institutions. 

Happy Holidays And This Is What Makes A Market

Happy holidays from our friends at Heritage Capital Research as on Wednesday they shared their wisdom about the current state of the markets and the forces that have made the market what it is. Have a good read this weekend and have a good weekend.  

Wall Street closes lower as stimulus rally cools, Tesla volume jumps

The week ended on another down note as stimulus uncertainty once again dominated market sentiment driving the Dow down 124 points, though it was down quite a lot more than that earlier in the session. But with all three indexes reaching records yesterday, it was time for a retreat and some profit-taking. Volume was huge at 15.8 billion but this was the illusory once per month quadruple witching effect so it doesn’t count. And continuing weak economic data provides more investor optimism that stimulus is on the way. Later this evening, it was on the news that still another stopgap measure had been passed by the Senate to keep the government operating for still one more week. 

Wall Street ends at record highs as investors eye fiscal stimulus

All three indexes closed at new records today as investor optimism over the stimulus increased. Yesterday’s news of retail sales falling, unemployment increasing and the Moderna vaccine approval stoked the optimism.  The S&P has had a great year, climbing 15 percent and now investors are propping it up further looking for bargains in the conventional sectors of financials and energy.  Volume remains a little below the 4-week average at 10.5 billion. 

Nasdaq ends at record high as investors await stimulus

The Dow spent most of the day in the red but recovered in the last hour to close just 44 points down. There is still vibrant optimism that a stimulus package is right around the corner and the Fed boosted things in repeating its pledge to keep interest rates near zero, widely seen as a major support for stock prices.  The tech companies benefiting from the pandemic also got another boost. Volume was again a little below the 4-week average at 9.9 billion. 

Nasdaq ends at record high on stimulus bets, Apple boost

With all eyes on the widely anticipated and expected soon to be passed relief bill plus Apple’s happy announcement of their planned big boost in iPhone production, all three indexes zoomed up, the Dow 337 points. The optimism over the stimulus bill was stoked by Pelosi inviting congressional leaders to a meeting to finalize the deal. Volume remains robust at 10 billion though still a little below the greatly elevated 4-week average of 11.5 billion. 

S&P 500 ends down, Walt Disney weighs

The Dow was actually up considerably most of the day until Disney was downgraded by BMO Capital Markets and lost all its gains from last week to be replaced once again by front-runner Netflix which climbed 4 percent. But despite a strong rise in the consumer index and general optimism, the markets were dragged down at the end of the day by investor sentiment that “the vaccine is not going to be a silver bullet.”  The Dow closed down 184 points as everyone awaits the Congress passing the relief bill and early voting starts in Georgia. Volume was a little below average at 10.4 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 12.11.20 (plus Daily State of the Markets)

The usual weekly summation is below, the main positive being the FDA approval of Pfizer's vaccine, the main negative being the awful new spikes and awful new daily records of COVID. The vaccine cannot get here too soon. The Sunday bonus this weekend is the most current report from Heritage Capital Research concerning their assessment of where the markets currently stand. Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

The Individual Investor’s Guide to Personal Tax Planning 2020

For your weekend reading, I submit this week's latest offerings from the AAII, something I'm sure everyone can use -- an investor's guide to 2020 tax planning.  The link and full text of the article is below.  Enjoy your weekend, wet though it may be. (better rain than snow! - though I just had my snow tires put on so I don't care one way or the other.)

Stimulus uncertainty hems in Wall Street; Disney soars

It was another pandemic-on day with the Dow down 180 points at noon but steadily recovering throughout the afternoon session to close 47 points up. Disney provided the late session boost forecasting 350 million subscribers for its streaming services by 2024. Facing a midnight deadline, the Senate approved the widely expected stopgap relief measure but there remain major hurdles in the battle which could carry over through Christmas. It was principally this uncertainty that kept the markets down despite the overall optimism, as stated by today’s expert, “The base case is that they’re going to get it done.” One bit of good news is that the U of M survey showed improved consumer sentiment despite the faltering labor market. The FDA is expected to authorize the Pfizer vaccine as soon as this evening. (As of 9:20 p.m., the vaccine has been approved.) Volume was a little below average at 9.9 billion. 

Wall Street shakes off labor market data with stimulus in focu

It was another pandemic-on day with jobless claims coming in well above forecast and a COVID relief bill still undone though a vote is expected Friday on a stopgap measure. But the competing pressures between the downbeat economy and the timing and size of the relief package will continue to be a daily volatile struggle. The Dow was down 69, the Nasdaq 66.  The only good news is that the faltering labor market combined with the COVID surges will continue to pile pressure on the Congress to get moving. Volume was 10.3 billion. 

Wall Street ends lower on stimulus uncertainty, Facebook weighs

Today Facebook is being sued by the FTC and nearly every state for antitrust violations which brought all the indexes down, the Nasdaq 243 points, the Dow 105. Meanwhile it was a pandemic-on day as the much wanted and long awaited relief package stays in limbo versus the likely passage this week of a one-week funding bill, hoping that a week is enough to reach a deal on the big package. But the consensus is that stocks are way overvalued right now which means the slightest bad news will trigger a sell off.  A bill passed before Christmas is hoped to remedy that. Volume was a tad above average at 12.0 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher on vaccine lift; S&P 500, Nasdaq at records

It was a vaccine-on day as J&J announced the testing of its vaccine could be completed as early as January and Pfizer cleared another hurdle for approval of its drug. That and the Congress voting this week on a stopgap relief bill that both sides agree on, plus McConnell now stating he’s ready to eliminate the main roadblocks to the main relief bill all sent the Dow up 104 points. Investors are expected to soon shift their focus from vaccine approval to global vaccine distribution. Volume remains a little below the 4-week average at the still very vigorous 10.4 billion shares traded. 

Nasdaq closes at record high as growth names get a lift

It was a pandemic-on day as new COVID restrictions put the continuing economic crisis on the front burner again and the Dow dove 148 points. This changed market sentiment back to growth and tech and the Nasdaq closed to a new record 55 points up. Though vaccine news is imminent, as today’s expert says, “it is kind of this weird period where we are waiting on emergency use approval.” The relief bill remains undone though a stopgap bill is expected  in order to extend the time for reaching agreements. Volume was a tad below the 4-week average though still very high at nearly 10.8 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 12.04.20 (plus Unraveling Medicare)

Below find the usual weekly summation, the main positive being that November saw the strongest market gains in 30 years and November's layoffs were considerably lower than October's. The main negative as always is the out of control spikes in COVID with the unprecedented daily death rate now over 3,000.  The bonus this Sunday is the latest segment of Consuelo Mack's WealthTrack program in which we get the latest and greatest navigation of Medicare for those of us who are retired.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  COVID not withstanding, we're in for a nice week. 

7 Highest-Paying Dividend Stocks in the S&P 500

As we begin to wind down another year, U.S. News Invested goes back to basics with year-end rebalancing to provide recommendations on their picks of seven of the best stocks that in these pandemic times provide the best of both worlds -- the growth of equities and the safety of bonds.  You guessed it! It's their latest list, from yesterday's edition, of the highest paying dividend stocks in the S&P.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Wall Street hits highs as slowing job growth spurs stimulus bets

It was very much a “bad news actually equals good news” day on Wall Street as the hoped-for grim jobs report created big optimism for a greater likelihood of a stimulus bill sooner rather than later. The stimulus being seen as essential for the economic recovery boosted the cyclical stocks substantially and shot the Dow consistently upward all day to close 248 up.  Positive vaccine updates also boosted hopes for a quicker recovery. Volume was again right in line with the already significantly elevated 4-week average at 11.4 billion. 

Nasdaq hits record high, S&P 500 ends lower

Both the Nasdaq and S&P hit records today (though the S&P closed below that record) as it was another vaccine-on day with optimism boosting the airline index 4% and cruise index 8% as hopes for normalizing the economy increased. This was despite the fact that Pfizer slowed things down a bit with an announcement about supply chain obstacles to the vaccine rollout, but this was balanced by a drop in unemployment benefits though it still remains huge at 712,000.  The Dow gained 85, the Nasdaq 27 and volume was again right in line with the 4-week average at 11.5 billion. 

S&P 500 hits record as investors await fiscal deal

The Dow was in the red most of the day but then revived after 2 pm to close up 59 points. Yesterday’s optimism over the new bipartisan relief package got shot down today but Hoyer expressed hope that a bill could be passed “in the next few days.” Meanwhile, the market is hoping for bad news on the employment front this Friday as an added inducement for the Congress to pass this relief bill.  Recovery optimism is still very much in play as the rotation from growth to value continues in earnest. Volume was very much in line with the 4-week average at 11.6 billion. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq end at record highs on vaccine optimism

Yesterday was a vaccine-off day; today it was back to vaccine-on as the markets bet on how quickly a vaccine would be available and how that might speed economic recovery. There was also positive global data with China’s factory activity being at its fastest pace in a decade along with several other countries. Unfortunately, the U.S. saw lost momentum in November. This was balanced by news from the Congress that a $908 billion relief package was in the works. In the end, all three indexes gained, the Dow by 185 points. Volume was considerably above the already elevated 4-week average at 13.5 billion.