Indexes jump on inflation data; Nasdaq posts best qtr since 2020

Today’s inflation number came in just slightly better than before and that added to a moderate increase in consumer spending thrilled the markets, giving everyone raised hopes that an end to rate hikes was in the future. In fact, the oddsmakers now place even money between a ¼ point hike in May and zero, and that has not happened before. The happy consensus: “The Fed’s campaign is in fact working, albeit slowly.”  It zoomed all the indexes way up, the Dow a whopping 415 points and tech is ending Q1 with its biggest gains in nearly three years, 16.8%.  Volume remains below average, though today not too far below, at just under 12 billion. 

Wall St gains with tech shares; regional banks fall

The charts had a V-shape today as the Dow opened 165 up, then steadily lost about 200 shortly before 1 pm, then rose again just as steadily to close up just shy of where it opened at a +141.  The other indexes saw similar patterns but at least stayed in the black all day.  A second day of a tech rally was the trigger as the tech index reached its highest level in nearly a year and ready to end Q1 with a 20% gain, the Nasdaq on track for its biggest quarterly gain since the end of 2020.  

Wall Street jumps with rosy outlooks from companies

The market started way up and stayed way up all day with the Dow closing 323 in the black, the Nasdaq 210, all triggered by a very positive forecast from Micron which is considered a microcosm of the global economy.  What’s good for Micron is good for the overall economy and the world.  That combined with also very positive news from Lululemon and growing confidence that the banking crisis is subsiding, helped a lot by Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr stating the bank failures were really management failures, cheered on today’s rally.  Next up: Friday’s PCE report for another reading on inflation. Volume remains considerably below the 4-week average at 10.6 billion. 

Wall Street ends down with tech; investors assess bank comments

The Dow started out up about a hundred points before starting a dive right around noon to reach a low point some 200 down before rising again around 2 pm to final close down just 37.  The Nasdaq and S&P followed a similar pattern excepting that both spent the entire session solidly in the red. Like yesterday, with the tech sector doing so well for Q1, the sell off of the last two days was likely triggered by profit-taking. Falling shares in Apple and Microsoft dragged the S&P down. 

S&P 500 ends up slightly; SVB deal lifts bank shares

The Dow was up and down in a 300-point range 3 times during the day before falling in the final hour to close up 194.  The others had similar seesaw action.  SVB being shored up boosted the banking index again and First Republic shot up nearly 12% on reports that more federal support was likely coming for banks.  So it was good news for the financial sector and, though tech suffered losses today, Q3 will be strong for them so today’s selling was likely profit-taking. Trading continues to settle down with volume well below the recent averages at 10.3 billion. 

Dividend Benefits

In this volatile market, PBS' WealthTrack program this week took another look at generating income through dividends.  Not only does this week's program interview one of the nation's leading dividend expert at Clearbridge Investments, but also contains a transcript of Fed Chair Powell's March 232nd press conference.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

10 Best Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy for 2023

And to close out the last weekend of March, here are some more recommendations for the best of blue chip investments.  

Wall Street ends volatile week higher as Fed officials ease bank fears

The indexes started the day way down, the Dow by 300 points, but very quickly began an ascent as more reassurances flowed in from Fed presidents of confidence that there was no liquidity crisis and that, indeed, the reason for this week’s ¼ point hikes was precisely because of solid confidence in the economy. In fact, the Fed statement concerning more hikes was today interpreted that inflation and the economy was on solid footing and that actually increased investor confidence of no further hikes causing a general rally in which the indexes all closed in positive territory, the Dow up 132 points. This was further punctuated by the losses in the banking sectors moderating considerably today. Volume remains below average at about 11.1 billion. 

Wall St ends higher as Yellen vows actions to safeguard deposits

It was another day with investors having a tough time deciding whether they believed the banking crisis was really under control as all the indexes rose dramatically until about 11 a.m., the Dow up some 500 points, then steadily declining some 700 points by 3 pm before gaining again to a 75-point gain at close. There were reassurances from several quarters, not the least of which were the world’s central banks, particularly the Bank of England, not only saying the inflation will probably quickly fade but also that the higher rates would not create that much of a concern on financial stability. Still, the bank indexes continued to drop. Today, the S&P bank index is down 40% from its record high over a year ago.  Volume remains a little below average at 12.3 billion. 

Wall St ends sharply lower as Powell warns inflation fight continues

The Fed announced the widely expected ¼ point hike, even suggesting that much wanted pause was likely soon in the works, all the indexes remained close to break-even all day until about 3 p.m. when they all tanked huge, the Dow diving 530 points in the final hour. It must have been right around 3 p.m. that the market got the double-whammy of the announcement that likely two more hikes were in the future plus Janet Yellen’s remarks that the FDIC was not considering “blanket insurance” for the badly run banks caught up in the recent strife. Even though these banks have already been rescued and the wide consensus is that the strife will not spread, the remarks caused that massive final hour sell off.  The bank indexes fell and several banks slid from 5 to 17%.  Volume remains a little below average at 11.8 billion. 

Wall Street ends green on bank bounce as Fed takes focus

The relief over the bank rescues suggesting “the banking crisis wasn’t a crisis after all, and was isolated to a handful of banks” extended into a second day with the indexes way up again, the Dow closing up 316.  Today the bank indexes jumped between 3.5 and 5% with First Republic soaring nearly 30, though the S&P bank index remains down 18% for the month. The Fed bets for tomorrow are now 83/17 for a ¼ point vs no hike. And as today’s expert put it, “The Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points and the market won’t care.”  Adding to the optimism are home sales blasting through projections with a 14.5% jump after 12 months of losses.  Another sign of stability – for the first time in a while, volume was actually a little below average at 11.7 billion. 

Wall St ends higher as bank contagion fears ease, Fed eyed

Last Thursday the major banks moved to bail out the failing banks but today made the greater impact when UBS absorbed Credit Suisse while central banks around the world moved to bolster cash flow. This put the fears of a burgeoning crisis at ease and shot the Dow up a big 382 points, almost exactly the same as the loss from Friday. Add to that New York Community Bancorp buying up Signature Bank and, as today’s expert put it, “another bank coming in helps to halt the panic and fear.” Now all eyes are on the Fed’s March meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the oddsmakers putting a roughly 72/28% chance of a ¼ point hike vs no hike.  And you know things are settling down when volume returns to normal levels, which it did today at about 12.5 billion. 

Recession Watch

Let's face it. The primary reason the markets have been so crazy for months now is because of a deep-seated fear of impending recession on the part of investors.  Whether this fear is justified or not, Consuelo Mack goes into more detail on the issue in this week's episode of WealthTrack.  

Banks Behaving Badly

This latest AAII update is particularly relevant in view of the events of the past 10 days.  Plus it was in today's news that the CEO of SVB knew a month ago that they were in trouble and not only did nothing about it but sold millions of dollars of his own stock, so currently under investigation for insider trading.  

Wall Street ends sharply lower on bank contagion fears

Wow, what a difference a day makes. Not that anything particularly material changed, but yesterday’s optimism over the banking crisis being contained evaporated today with several more banks taking major hits to their stock prices, First Republic sinking 32.8% after announcing suspension of its dividend.  The indexes dove huge almost immediately and stayed down all day. The good news is that today’s selloff is seen as an overreaction. 

Wall Street closes higher as First Republic helps lift banks

I was hoping that yesterday’s afternoon rally, though still closing in the red, would continue today and that it did, with the Dow opening some 300 down, almost exactly where it left off, and then steadily rising 700 points throughout the session to close 371 in the black, as was the trend with the other indexes.  Investors can thank JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley for bailing out First Republic and Swiss National for doing the same for Credit Suisse.  This alleviated many of the concerns around cascading failures.  

Wall Street down as Credit Suisse sparks fresh bank selloff

The Dow was down some 700 points by 1 pm, then steadily rising again throughout the afternoon to close down 280.  The other indexes followed suit. Yesterday’s optimism that the bank failures would be contained were dashed with today’s bad news from Credit Suisse, so bad that it negated the bets on smaller rate hikes. The latter afternoon rally may have been due, as today’s expert cited, “I don’t think we are at 2008-2009 stages by any means when it comes to contagion.”  And with the entire market closing in the middle of a rally, perhaps that rally will continue tomorrow.  The PPI inflation barometer came in lower than expected which fueled more hopes for the Fed slowing the hikes.  Volume was again quite vigorous at 16.1 billion. 

Wall Street ends green as inflation cools, bank jitters ebb

Everything was up, way up in the morning, the Dow up some 500 points at 11:30 but then all the indexes started sliding and kept going downward, some reaching almost zero by 3:30, then a sudden surge to close way up again, +336 on the Dow, 64 S&P, and the Nasdaq doing the best at a +239.  The reason, as can be guessed, was good news from the CPI report showing inflation cooling and raising expectations for a ¼ point hike to near 75%, quite the turnaround from last week’s 80% for a ½ point hike. 

Sliding bank shares drag Wall Street down in choppy trade

Investors could not decide whether the SVB failure was a good thing or a bad thing as the indexes swung back and forth a few times between slightly red and rather big in the black, the Nasdaq even clearing black by some 50.  The Dow itself swung back and forth between near break-even and over 300-point gains before closing in the final minutes 90 down.  The tug of war is between whether there will be cascading bank failures or whether this single failure will lead the Fed to a pause in rate hikes. 

Cautiously Optimistic For Now

From Heritage Capital Research, this report is a few weeks old now but, as the events of the past few weeks have proven, this is more relevant than ever now.  

7 Best Value ETFs to Buy and Hold

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Wall St sinks on jitters about banks after mixed jobs report

Today was supposed to be all about the jobs report which came in with enough positive data to calm fears of a ½ point rate hike.  Though more jobs were added than expected, wage growth dropped and unemployment rose, both good signs on the inflation front. But then the markets went crashing down at 11:30 a.m. which must have been when the news came in of the failure of SVB Financial Group and crypto-lender Silvergate Capital, which sent the entire banking sector into a nosedive and brought the Dow down 345 points on fears that this would spread to other banks and other industries. And all other news got eclipsed. 

Wall St falls on bank stocks tumble, jobs report jitters

Worries that Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will show even more inflation has fueled concerns that there will be a ½ point rate hike this month. The higher hikes will be seen to hurt the banks abilities to lend and thus the entire banking sector sank today bringing the whole market down with it, the Dow a big 543 points.  The one bit of good news is that today’s Labor Department report showed 21,000 more unemployed than forecast and being taken as the first sign that the labor market may finally be loosening which is good news on the inflation front. But Friday’s payrolls report will tell a better story and is expected to show less than half the increase in new jobs than January but still not enough, still ticking in the wrong direction. For once volume was above average at about 11.7 billion. 

S&P 500 barely gains as investors eye upcoming jobs data, rate hikes

Powell merely reiterated today what he said yesterday about the likely necessity of more rate hikes and it again drove the indexes down, the Dow about 200 points until about 2 pm when all the indexes came back for modest gains, the Dow being the only loser. Yesterday’s comments changed the odds for a ½ point rate hike from 30% to 70% and today that went up again now to 80%.  The main trigger was the private payrolls report which came in higher than expected with 300,000 more job openings than expected. Investors will look anxiously towards Friday’s government payrolls report and next week’s inflation readings for more clues about a ¼ vs ½ point rate hike this month.  Volume remains below average at 10.3 billion. 

Wall Street falls more than 1% as Powell flags sharper rate hikes

Today the report is easy.  Powell signaled higher rate hikes while testifying to the Congress, and the market reacted with a huge sell off.  What’s not so easy is explaining the violent reaction to something that very much should have been expected.  Hearing from one expert, “investors should have been expecting Powell’s more hawkish tone,” while another balanced this with, “hearing it directly from Powell is a little different to inferring it from the data.”  

S&P 500 ends slightly higher ahead of Powell testimony, upcoming data

Today’s session was described as “a holding pattern” since all the indexes ended more or less even, but the numbers tell a different story with all the indexes up in the morning, the Dow up some 200 points, and then everything started declining right about noon. It was likely around noon that investors began reacting to Saturday’s comments by San Francisco Fed Prez Mary Daly, “if inflation and labor market data continue to come in hotter than expected, interest rates would need to go higher.”  

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Wall Street closes sharply higher, notches weekly gains as Treasury yields ease

It was a big shot straight up right across the board with positive economic data showing healthy growth with slowing prices and bolstered in the wake of yesterday’s Fed comments that coming rate hikes would be more gentle.  As today’s expert put it, “It’s all about the Fed and how gracefully they can slow the economy.  It suggests [investors] are willing to stay on the plane and are less worried about the landing.”  Q4 is almost over, only 7 companies left to report, and 68% have beaten estimates with earnings falling 3.2%.  Volume remains below average. 

Stocks gain as Bostic backs quarter-point hike

It was a pretty middling day until about 1:30 p.m. when suddenly everything shot up big time, the Dow up 341 points by close. It must have been right around 1:30 that the ordinarily hawkish Fed Governor Bostic made his comments in favor of ¼ point hikes, thereby calming investors fears of more ½ point hikes.  But job growth continues strong and, as Fed Governor Waller put it, “a string of hot data may force the central bank to raise rates higher.”  So all eyes remain on payroll and price data coming soon.  Volume is still below average at 11.1 billion. (Note the job growth graph from 2010-present.) 

S&P, Nasdaq weak as manufacturing stokes Fed concerns

It was another wild seesaw day with the Dow going back and forth in a 250 point range, being as much as 150 points in the red and 90 points in the black  before closing at break-even.  The S&P and Nasdaq didn’t fare as well spending the whole session in the red but losing most of its ground after 1 pm.  Rate hike jitters were again the underlying cause with now everyone waiting on the payrolls and CPI reports coming soon.