New Year's Resolutions From WealthTrack

Submitted for your consideration: financial New Year's resolutions courtesy of this week's edition of WealthTrack with Consuelo Mack, including yet another forecast for 2024, this time courtesy of her guest Ed Hyman of Evercore.  Happy New Year!  

10 of the Best Stocks to Buy for 2024

As we close in on the new year, here are the top recommendations for 2024 from U.S. News Invested.  

Wall Street ends slightly lower, capping blockbuster year

On all three indexes, there was a sharp selloff until about noon, the Dow plunging some 170 points, then recovering all afternoon with all closing with modest losses.  As today’s expert put it, “There’s really no reason for today’s small sell-off. I would ascribe it to last-minute portfolio changes, profit-taking as we enter the new year, and perhaps some rebalancing.” Overall though there was abundant good news. As the expert also said, “If I said [one year ago] I think the S&P is going to gain more than 20% in 2023, you would have put me in the slightly nutty category.”  This closing week of the year has seen all the indexes notch nine consecutive weekly gains, the longest such streak for the S&P in 20 years and 5 years for the Dow and Nasdaq.  

S&P 500 ekes out meager gains, flirts with bull market confirmation

It was mostly a green day on all the indexes with the Dow up some 120 points until the last 20 minutes when the whole market took a dive with the Nasdaq and S&P ending near break-even and the Dow maintaining a modest 53 point gain. There’s no real explanation given for the sudden last minute plunge but optimism nevertheless prevails. 

Wall St ekes out modest gains as S&P 500 hovers near all-time closing high

All three indexes seesawed like crazy between black and red all day, the Dow up almost 150 points by 1 pm, then dropping to near break-even shortly before close only to then zoom up in the final ten minutes to close up 111.  The others had the same pattern which points to a lot of fence-sitting and, as today’s expert put it, “Three days left of tax harvesting, three days of portfolio window dressing.”  The S&P is now just 15 points shy of its record close and reaching that benchmark will confirm a bull market which is important “for investors who are sitting on the fence.” Today the odds of a March rate cut are at 73.9% and volume is just a little below the 4-week average at 11.96 billion. 

Wall Street ends higher in final stretch of 2023, rate cuts in view

Following up on Friday’s good inflation numbers, it was yet another shot straight up on all the indexes as optimism continues riding high on rate cuts. The S&P today is only 22 points shy of ½% of its all-time high, 22 points shy of confirming its bull market. As today’s expert put it, “If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there’s a good chance that the Fed may cut rates earlier than anticipated.” Today the odds of a March rate cut are 72.7%. All 11 S&P sectors ended the day on the upside and all three indexes are heading well into year-end with monthly, quarterly, and annual gains. Being that it’s a holiday week, volume was light at 9.99 billion. 

The Oracle of Omaha: A Strategy Derived From Warren Buffett

To conclude this holiday weekend, here are words of wisdom from the AAII regarding the Oracle of Omaha.  Hope everyone had a great holiday!  

Will the Stock Market Crash in 2024? 7 Risk Factors

#2 of my series of articles this long holiday weekend giving investors a little heads up on what might be coming in 2024 in the markets and how to prepare for it.  Merry Christmas!  

Recession 2024: What to Watch for and How to Prepare

As we begin our holiday weekend, for the next three nights I will be submitting articles about what some experts think may be coming in 2024 and how to prepare for it.  

S&P 500 ends higher ahead of long holiday weekend

All three indexes were well into the black most of the day until about 2 pm when, in spite of a good PCE report that showed inflation coming down within reach of the Fed’s 2% goal, caution over the long holiday weekend set in which set everything spiraling down and with all the indexes closing near break-even. See the graph below for an eye-shot of inflation’s downward trending. But overall, optimism remains high, the PCE report was very dovish showing deflation for the month and reinforcing the “soft landing” scenario.  Other good news included new orders for capital goods coming in well above forecast. The odds are now 74.1% for a March rate cut, up from 43% last week.  Coming into a long weekend, volume was light at 9.6 billion. 

Wall St ends sharply higher, rebounding with a boost from chips

The day of hedging and hesitation turned out to be just a day as, with the Q3 GDP data announced today, things did indeed turn on a dime with all the indexes hugely rebounding. The day started with a bang, the Dow up some 300, then lost almost all of it by 1 p.m. before regaining it all by close.  It wasn’t just “buying the dip.”  The GDP numbers came in less robust than expected and the tight labor market showed signs of cracks, both good news on the inflation front. 

Wall Street tumbles to sharply lower close as abrupt sell-off snaps rally

Everything was going along pretty well at break-even until about exactly 2:30 p.m. when then the entire market fell through the floor, breaking one of history’s most impressive rallies and depriving the S&P of claiming the distinction of its official bull market, which it had reached earlier in the session before the big nosedive. Of course, it could be easily argued that this tremendous rally could not last forever and it was time to take some profits.  Another good theory is that investors were simply hedging their bets that Thursday and Friday’s inflation reports might not come in as hoped for.  

Wall Street ends higher as rate-cut fever lingers

It was another big shot straight up on all three indexes, but especially on the Dow which gained 251 points, on continuing elation over the prospect of rate cuts coming in 2024, now standing at a 67.5% odds for March. As today’s expert put it, “It’s Fed fumes but what’s more important is the breadth is expanding, the momentum is there, and the economy is confirming this move.” The Dow notched still another all-time high and the S&P is now within 1% of its record vs yesterday’s 1.2%. 

Wall Street ends higher, extending rate-cut rally

It was a steady rise on both the S&P and Nasdaq but not so much on the Dow which was up and down like crazy closing at break-even.  It is the seventh straight week of gains with the S&P now just 1.2% of it’s all-time high and with data showing inflation and spending are not running too hot, this continues to play into the optimism of coming rate cuts and, of course, the traditional end of year Goldilocks market. 

GREAT INVESTOR'S STRATEGY

Yesterday it was the ridiculous, today's it's the sublime as Consuelo Mack interviews T. Rowe Price's David Giroux about his contrarian strategy which has produced top notch returns for his 5-star gold rated fund.  

UNLOCK THE ROAD TO WEALTH

I thought I'd have some fun with this weekend before the holidays to share a "Get Rich Quick" scheme that I got on email this week.  I have no idea where this is legitimate or not (probably not) and would not recommend that anyone click on the link below (it may very well buy you a virus) or at the very least get you on a mailing list that you'll probably have to sell your first born in order to get off it.  Nonetheless I thought it would be amusing to read this pitch about outrageous returns in a short period, in this case 67% in 28 days.  And "No Credit Card Required" and if you believe that, I've got some bridges to sell you.  

S&P 500 posts longest weekly winning streak since 2017; finishes flat on day

There was seesaw action on all the indexes swinging back and forth between black and red four times on the Dow before finally closing with modest gains, making it the third record close in a row for the Dow and the seventh weekly gain for the S&P, its longest streak in six years. Today’s cold water came from the New York Fed prez who came out as the lone cynic on rate cuts dampening the day’s (and week’s) ebullience. As today’s expert put it, “What we got this week was Powell not wanting to punish the economy with higher rates for longer for no good reason. We could drift higher from here.”  

Dow scores second record close in a row on lower-rate bets

The indexes continued to rise, if a little more modestly this time, on a second day of euphoria over Fed comments about likely coming rate cuts in 2024 and, for a second day, there was still another record close.  But the charts tell a more mysterious tale of a big crash that occurred from 1 to 2 pm, then a quick recovery thereafter.  There is no explanation for this aberration except that “The market by any measure and any metric is overbought,” but followed by the more conciliatory, “the market celebrates lower rates.”  It’s like there was just a little bit of hesitation at 1 pm, followed by a very quick brush off of concerns.  The other good news included higher than expected retail sales in November indicating a robust holiday season and “further alleviating fears of recession.”  Volume was again way above average, this time at a whopping 17.1 billion. 

Dow ends at record high as Fed signals lower borrowing costs in 2024

All three indexes were flat as a pancake until 2 p.m. Then at 2 p.m. Powell made his previously unprecedented remarks that not only was the Fed “not likely” to hike further but is “very focused on not making the mistake of keeping rates too high for too long.”  With this the first really clear statement of intent to cut rates next year, the whole market went through the roof, the Dow zooming up 512 points reaching a new record high, its first all-time high in nearly two years. This confirms that we’ve been in a bull market since September of last year when the Dow reached its 20% low. Optimism today has further raised the odds of a first rate cut in May now at 90%.  Volume was way above average at 14.3 billion. 

Wall St hits fresh 2023 highs after inflation data; Fed on deck

With CPI coming in right on target (that is, no change), all the indexes took yet another shot straight up reaching new 2023 highs. Both the Dow and S&P have now recaptured their January highs and the losses from what until last month had been a very down year. Expectations are also high that PPI will come in on target and that the Fed will announce another hold on rates Wednesday, even though the forecast for the first 2024 rate cut is quickly shifting from March to May. Sentiment remains strong that inflation will keep coming down, earnings will keep going up, and the Fed will cut rates. See below for the chart showing CPI data. Volume was a little below average at 10.5 billion. 

Wall Street closes at fresh 2023 highs as inflation data, Fed eyed

It was a straight shot up on all the indexes, the Nasdaq being the only one that started in the red, and all three zoomed to new highs once again. There remains great confidence that despite the rising job market and falling unemployment that inflation would continue to decelerate and avoid recession. This was enforced by dropping consumer inflation expectations. 

#1 WALL STREET ECONOMIST

This week on WealthTrack, Consuelo Mack interviews Ed Hyman who has been voted Wall Street's #1 economist for 43 years. Today we look at how accurate his predictions were last year for 2023 and what his crystal tells him is coming in 2024 for the market and overall economy.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

Four Strategies for Reducing Capital Gains Taxes on Investments

As we near the end of our tax year, AAII has offered us some advice for the holidays for reducing the taxes on our investments. Hope you all find something useful in there.  Enjoy the weekend.  

S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch highest closes since early 2022

All indexes were up in the morning, the Dow up some 120, then crashed back to break-even from 11 a.m. until noon before they all started climbing again to end the week with another consecutive gain, the sixth for both the Dow and S&P, their longest streaks in four years. The good news was the payrolls report showing 19,000 more new jobs than predicted, once again offering assurance that the economy is showing resilience in the face of the rate cuts and that any recession would have a soft landing. 

Nasdaq ends sharply higher as Alphabet and AMD fuel AI surge

It was a straight shot up on all the indexes today as enthusiasm ran high on the launch of Google’s new AI model, taking not only all of tech along for the ride but all the other sectors as well.  The value-ridden Dow was the exception reaching a high of a +110 by 2 pm, but then falling to a +62 at close.  As today’s expert put it, “We’re in this weird market, one day tech leads, the next day value.”  

Wall St ends lower as investors weigh fresh employment data

All three indexes opened very handsomely in the black, the Dow opening almost 200 up, then started a steady decline with both the S&P and Nasdaq sliding into the red around noon, the Dow later around 3 pm, and all three staying there to close down, the Dow a minus 70, the Nasdaq 83.  And that’s on a day of good news with the payrolls report coming in 27,000 jobs below forecast further supporting the notion of a softening job market which is good for inflation. 

Wall Street ends mixed after job openings hint at cooling economy

Same pattern as yesterday, the Dow starting off some 200 points in the red by 10 a.m., then slowly recovering throughout the day to close down 79. Contrary to yesterday, the Nasdaq and S&P fared better, all on the heels of a job report showing a weakening market, which is exactly what the Fed wants, which bolstered more optimism for rate cuts as soon as March.  In fact, in one day the odds of a March cut has gone from 58% to 65%.  This is all good for tech. Volume remains heavy at 11.9 billion.  

Wall Street ends down as megacaps give back gains

The three indexes took a real dive right out the gate, the Dow down over 200 by noon, then gradually for the Dow to have only modest losses by close, but the Nasdaq and the S&P not so well.  The downtrend was triggered by caution ahead of the jobs report due Friday which could put a damper on rate optimism, and now a new concern that perhaps that optimism was premature. It will come out in the wash at next week’s Fed meeting (which explains the morning downfall, but not afternoon comeback.)  The odds of a cut in March stand at 58%.  The good news: “There is a lot of chop around here but that is not necessarily meaningful.”  Volume was brisk at 12.7 billion, considerably above the 4-week average of 10.6 billion. 

Remembering Charlie Munger

From this week's AAII, a memorial to Charlie Munger, second-in-command to Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway who passed away this past week at the age of 99 and 11 months. 

5 ETFs to Hedge Against a Stock Market Crash

For those of us wishing to seek protection from Doomsday, here are 5 ETFs that are designed to do well in the event of a catastrophic crash. Not that I believe that there's any chance of any such thing happening, but just as it's considered wise to have a certain percentage of our holdings in gold and silver, it's probably also wise to have a small percentage in these disaster funds.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Shares climb, dollar falls with Fed comments inspiring dovish bets

While all three indexes were briefly in the red this morning, that quickly reversed with a shot straight up for the rest of the session, the Dow again with triple-digit gains, today closing up 294, bringing in the fifth consecutive week of gains in all indexes, the longest streak in two years. This was all despite Powell’s best efforts to convince investors not to bet too heavily on rate cuts as the Fed would continue to move “carefully” in rates towards the 2% inflation goal. But Wall Street still chooses to believe that cuts are coming next year and placed their bets accordingly.  

Dow rallies to year's highest close, caps blockbuster month

The Dow was up all day and with high triple-digit gains closing at its highest level in nearly two years. The Nasdaq was down big time most of the day but did a remarkable recovery after 3 pm to close with just a modest loss.  The S&P was also in negative territory most of the day but also recovered in the final hour to a modest gain. The trigger was the PCE report which showed inflation still steadily cooling suggesting it is no longer a major headwind, something the markets very much wanted to see. 

S&P 500 ends lower on mixed Fed messages, PCE on deck

It was another day of choppy trading as the indexes continued to digest comments from the Fed governors, Waller saying rate cuts were coming, Barken that more rate hikes were likely, and today Meister saying the bank needed to remain “nimble.” But at least until 2 pm, the markets seemed to still be optimistic, the Dow up over 150 points, over a strong GDP report (see chart below) that showed the resilience of the economy and giving more reassurance of avoiding recession, while the big guns remain on the sidelines pending Thursday’s PCE report regarding inflation. Volume was above average at 11.42 billion. 

Stocks rise as dollar falls, gold rallies on Fed commentary

Trading on the indexes was choppy with the Dow up nearly 200 points by noon but closing with gains all around, the Dow up 83.  Encouraging comments from Fed Governor Waller encouraged the sentiment that rate hikes were done and even bolstered optimism that the first cuts could come as early as March. Then Fed Governor Bowman threw cold water on Waller’s comments by reaffirming that more hikes would probably be necessary to get inflation to the Fed’s goal, thus the choppiness bringing the market down. 

Global stock index falls with Treasury yields, oil prices dip

It was a seesaw day and mostly in the red (except for the Nasdaq) with the Dow down some hundred points before rebounding, but overall a day for just modest losses on all the indexes. Oddly enough, after months of investors banking on the economy cooling off, today concerns turned to worries that the economy was slowing at all. Black Friday was praised last week, but today – “Investors are bracing for lower discretionary spending.”  It seems on Wall Street you can only please some of the people all the time.  Fortunately, this sudden change in sentiment was short-lived with a continuing light volume of only 9.3 billion. 

7 High-Yield ETFs for Income Investors

Continuing the theme of sound investment opportunities for this long holiday weekend, how about some recommendations for income producing ETFs (to help pay for all the upcoming holiday expenses.)  Hope everyone had a great holiday. 

10 Largest Mutual Funds by AUM

We haven't covered mutual funds for quite some so I thought it was quite appropriate for this holiday weekend that this was the topic of this latest issue of U.S. News Invested.  Continue enjoying the long weekend.  

Wall St ends mixed in truncated Black Friday trading

Today was a short day with the exchanges closing at 1 pm for the post-Thanksgiving session. And though inflation is prompting consumer frugalness, it is still expected, as shown on the chart below, that holiday spending will be up 5% and that despite today’s mixed data, the markets are still very much on track for the traditional year-end rally.  The PMI report showed steady business activity while private employment dropped for the first time in 3-1/2 years, both good signs for inflation and rates. Volume was just under 5 billion which was half of the 10 billion average, consistent with the half-day. 

Muni Bonds Comeback

For Thanksgiving, let's give a shout out to one very safe investment, especially for retirees, that we don't talk about very often -- tax-free municipal bonds.  

Wall St climbs before holiday; investors optimistic Fed done hiking rates

The profit-taking lasted only one day before the buying resumed in earnest today as optimism continued over the no more hikes and recession soft landing scenarios. There’s also a boost to optimism by the historic rally that has often occurred during the holidays. The only negative on the day was the new darling Nvidia that, though it beat its Q3 estimate also surprised with a reduced Q4 forecast. Volume was again considerably below average at 8.57 billion. 

Wall Street ends lower, gold jumps as Fed minutes reveal cautious policy approach

As today’s expert put it, “We’ve had a very sharp rally, and some profit-taking was probably overdue,” is as good as any explanation for the modest downturn all three indexes took today triggered in large part by cautious Fed minutes that confirmed the “higher-for-longer” scenario.  But the tumbling sales of existing homes, the lowest in 13 years, due to rising mortgage rates plus falling Treasury yields was supporting news on the inflation front. Volume remained considerably below average at 9.4 billion.  

Nasdaq leads Wall Street's gains as Microsoft hits record high

It was a straight shot up all day on all three indexes, the Dow and Nasdaq once again with triple-digit gains, the Dow up 203. Having recruited two of the top AI execs from one of the top AI companies, Microsoft shot way up to a record high and took the whole tech sector with them. The combo of falling Treasury yields, a strong earnings season and the expected traditional holiday rally has set a positive mood. The Dow is at its highest since August 9 and the S&P is just 1% short of its 2023 high in July. This week’s catalysts include Nvidia’s Q3, Tuesday’s Fed minutes, and Black Friday foot traffic. Volume was below average at 10.1 billion. 

7 Dividend Stocks With Good ESG Scores

ESG remains a subject of debate with some insisting that traditional stocks are more profitable while others finding it a viable alternative for those wishing to support companies that contribute to a healthy world. However one stands on this issue, there's no question that it does provide a reasonable option for even the most conservative investor and certainly no question that the companies listed below are indeed very solid.  

40 Years of Market Wisdom

As the old saying goes -- Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Sometimes it is indeed a very good idea to look at the Big Picture. With that theme in mind, once again we hear from James Grant as he gives us 40 years of perspective on the markets. 

Stocks close little changed to notch weekly win

This was one of those rare days when I could find no market report so I had to settle for the below from Yahoo, which was not very comprehensive. But the chart once again showed erratic selling in the morning bringing the Dow down some 60 points followed by an equally erratic buying spree in the afternoon with the Dow +80 at its high point. But all three indexes ended the day flat with just a few points gain, but that was enough for a third straight week of wins. November so far is one of the biggest gainers for the year.  Cooling inflation data and a softening job market has continued the sentiment of an end to rate hikes and a soft landing for recession, making this the third week ending on the plus side. Per the CBOE, volume was 10.1 billion. 

S&P 500 barely gains while Dow ends lower as Cisco and Walmart drag

With all the indexes deeply in the red for much of the day, the Dow down 180 points by 2:30 p.m., today’s expert summed it up well.  “The big driver today is the tug of war between those who want to sell on rallies and those who want to buy on dips.” In the final hour there was a big rally which brought all the indexes to either minor gains or minor losses but the day was anything but flat.  The big selling was triggered by major tumbles in giants Cisco, Palo Alto Networks, and Walmart, while the buying was supported by gains in giants Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia. Good news included rising unemployment claims which supported the view of no more hikes, which also held the odds of a May rate cut at 62%. Volume was a tad below average at 10.7 billion. 

Wall Street gains on easing inflation, Target's upbeat forecast

The Dow had a straight shot up which accounts for its 3-digit increase. The S&P and Nasdaq first had a big shot up, then a big shot down, which accounts for why they both ended the day near zero. That’s odd since the big news for the day was the encouraging PPI report (biggest decline in 3-1/2 years) that, along with retail sales confirms the narrative of both no more rate hikes and a soft landing. There was also Target’s big 17.8% boost, its biggest in four years, which in turn boosted the entire retail index. Eyes are now on the big meeting between Biden and Jinping with hopes it will calm frictions and, of course, the stopgap spending bill which must be signed before Friday’s midnight deadline for the government shutdown. Volume remains above average at 11.67 billion. 

Wall St rallies as data supports view Fed may be done hiking rates

It was a big shot straight up right out the gate this morning on all three indexes with the Dow up about 600 by 11 a.m. and staying there all day until a modest drop in the final minutes to close up just under 500. There were similar dramatic jumps on both the Nasdaq and Dow. The huge rally was triggered by CPI data that beat estimates with October price rises coming in at 3.2% vs September’s 3.7%, the smallest rise in two years.  The softening inflation gave a big boost to rate cut projections now estimated at 65% in May compared to 34% just yesterday. There remain concerns about the funding bill facing an end of the week government shutdown. Volume was considerably above average at 12.6 billion. 

S&P 500 takes a pause ahead of U.S inflation data

All the indexes started in the red, the S&P and Nasdaq considerably so, but began an immediate ascent to break-even by noon and then stayed that way, taking a breath ahead of Tuesday’s CPI report which is expected to show decreasing inflation and give some more clarity on Fed policy. The expectation remains for no more hikes conditional on continued reduced inflation. The odds of no December hike are now at 86%. There is concern about the nation’s credit rating being reduced from “stable” to “negative,” plus there is the impending government shutdown. As the market takes a breath, volume was below average at 9.34 billion. 

Seismic Interest Rate Shift

Yesterday we talked about the investment opportunities brought about by rising interest rates.  Today we shift our focus to the very phenomenon of interest rates courtesy of PBS' Wealthtrack program as Consuelo Mack interviews interest rate expert James Grant about what's going on in the current environment.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  More sunny days ahead.  

9 of the Best Bond ETFs to Buy Now

This weekend, the theme will be interest rates and we'll get started tonight with a look at the most promising bond ETFs per this week's edition of U.S. News Invested since, as rates continue to be "higher for longer," bonds are now becoming as attractive (or even moreso) than stocks.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Wall Street soars, fueled by tech as Treasury yields calm

All the second thoughts about “higher for longer” that had brought the market down during the last two days evaporated today as investors decided to shrug off Powell’s recent remarks and focus instead on the stabilizing Treasury yields. After two down days, investors decided to snatch up bargains and all the indexes went zooming way up into mid 3-digit levels. Today’s soaring market pushed the indexes into big gains for the week, the Dow up 0.7%, the S&P 1.3, the Nasdaq 2.4%.  The only bad news for the day was consumer sentiment falling for the fourth straight month on continuing expectations of more inflation. Volume was below average at 10.2 billion. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq snap winning streaks after Powell, Treasury auction

Everything was chugging along close to break-even until 1 pm, then went very south very quickly. If investors were merely disappointed by Powell’s remarks yesterday in which he didn’t even mention monetary policy, today they got it with both barrels as Powell came right out blasting, “the fight against inflation has not been won” and if warranted “won’t hesitate to hike rates again.” The indexes went into triple-digit losses again after the longest winning streak in two years. With today’s remarks, the forecast for a first rate cut in May has now been extended until the end of 2024.  Volume was above average at 11.36 billion. 

Stocks slip as market seeks rate-cut timing, dollar gains

All the indexes got a bump first thing but as of 10 a.m. started a nose dive (the Dow down some 250 points) until noon when a recovery started with the Dow closing with a modest loss, the others with very modest gains. Overall, there was disappointment in Powell’s remarks in that he mentioned nothing about monetary policy whereas investors were hoping for more guidance on the timing of rate cuts, though the consensus remains at 50% for a rate cut in May.  But sentiment seems to be, “rates have peaked but a rate cut is unlikely to come soon.” Nonetheless, another expert says, “It’s too early to say that.” Thus uncertainty prevails. Volume was 10.4 billion. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq score longest win streak in 2 years on rates view

It was a choppy day but at least it was mostly in the black with modest gains for the Dow and S&P and more than modest gains for the Nasdaq. But with three Fed governors today refusing to rule out rate cuts, investors continue to push the narrative that the Fed is done with rate hikes. Yesterday the mood was – maybe, maybe not. Today it changed to “the Fed is done.” This pushed the Dow and S&P to their seventh straight gains and the Nasdaq to its eighth, the longest streak in two years. There is a 90.2% chance of no December rate hike vs 69% a week ago. Powell speaks again on Wednesday and Thursday.  Volume again came in at 10 billion. 

Wall St extends winning streak; eyes Fed speakers, Treasury auctions

The indexes were up rather handsomely in the morning, then took a substantial dive at noon to begin another rally at 2 pm that closed the day with modest gains, the 6^th in a row for the Dow and S&P, 7^th for Nasdaq. But last week’s exuberant buying seems to have now dissipated as the markets look for more guidance from the Fed but still with strong confidence that there will be no hike in December (90.4%) and there may well come cuts as early as May. This week eyes are on jobless claims on Thursday and consumer sentiment data on Friday. 4/5^th of the S&P has reported with 81.6% beating estimates. Volume was 10 billion. 

9 of the Best Stocks for a Starter Portfolio

Given that the theme this weekend is a review of basics, I'm sharing last week's edition of U.S. News Invested on choosing stocks for a beginner portfolio, in other words very safe.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

AAII: Expanding Upon the 10 Commandments of Investing

A while back we talked about the AAII's Wayne Thorp's 10 rules of investing. As I feel it's a good idea to get back to basics from time to time, this week, the AAII published an expansion on this topic.  Have a great weekend.   

US stocks close higher as Treasury yields fall after weak jobs data

Just like yesterday it was another shot straight up with again triple-digit gains on both the Dow and Nasdaq.  For a long time investors have been waiting for the very tight job market to loosen up a bit and today they got that good news with new jobs increasing by 70K less than expected and unemployment ticking up to 3.9%.  This lent confidence that rates will remain steady for the foreseeable future and the corresponding drop in Treasury yields for the fourth session reinforced all this with the 10-year at its lowest level in five weeks.  

Wall Street indexes rally on bets of peak US interest rates, strong earnings

Today it was one great big shot straight up on all three indexes as investors take a second day to further digest yesterday’s Fed comments and continue a bullish mood that rate hikes are done.  This same optimism sent Treasury yields tumbling which also supported stocks, and good earnings news from such heavy hitters as Starbucks, Qualcomm, PayPal and Apple added to the surge. 

US stocks rally as Fed holds rates, prompts hope for end to hikes

It was another exuberant day as all three indexes were in the black all day starting high but with a dip between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. but then another straight shot up for 3-digit advances on both the Dow and Nasdaq. Sentiment was positive with Powell’s remarks suggesting “the bar has become higher for rate hikes,” which investors took that hikes were done with November rates remaining unchanged. 

Wall St closes higher on eve of Fed decision; investors assess earnings

All three indexes started the day in the red but by 1 pm were in the black and all ended the session up as investors picked up bargains from last week’s dry spell.  The move back into positive territory seems to indicate the market believes the Fed will hold off on more hikes this year amidst a batch of mixed earnings and the uncertainty of the two wars.  But as today’s expert put a more positive spin on things, “the recent sell-off brings us back to fairly valued from over-valued levels.” This is the third consecutive monthly loss for all indexes with the Dow down 1.4%, the S&P 2.2, the Nasdaq 2.8%.  There are now 279 Q3 reports and 78% have beaten forecasts. Earnings forecast is now 4.9%, quite a jump from the 1.6 a month ago.  Volume came in at 10.6 billion.  

Wall St rallies 1%, yen gains vs dollar; talk of BOJ policy tweak

Though it was still a bit of a seesaw for tech, the Dow was a straight shot up, 511 big ones. Finally the buying reflects all the positive data that’s been ignored the last two weeks. Treasury yields fell after they announced Q4 borrowing of $76 billion less than expected. Giants Caterpillar and Apple will be bringing their Q3 reports this week as earnings season passes the halfway mark. Volume came in at 10.3 billion. 

BONDS ARE BACK

Yesterday I talked about "what" bond funds to buy now according to the latest and greatest from U.S. News Invested. Today I submit some advice about the "why" in this changing environment according to the latest and greatest from the PBS program "WealthTrack."  

7 of the Best Fidelity Bond Funds to Buy for Steady Income

Once again visiting that topic of investing for income, here are the latest picks from U.S. News Invested.  

Wall Street ends mixed at close of earnings-packed week

Probably due to good reports from Amazon and Intel, the tech heavy S&P and Nasdaq started out reasonably well but then right around 11:15 started a dramatic dive for the rest of the day. The cyclical Dow fared considerably worse with a straight-down dive from the outset, attributed to continuing fears of higher-for-longer.  As today’s expert put it, “The economy would be just fine with inflation around 3%. It’s that last mile of getting where we are today to the Fed’s [2%] target. That’s the big question.”  

Markets down as earnings roll in; investors assess economic data

Meta and IBM turning in good Q3 reports after hours yesterday did not impact sentiment in the market one bit as other Q3 reports were seen as a mixed bag and sent all three indexes straight down, the Dow almost -300 by 1:30 pm, then zooming up again until 3 pm, only to go crashing again to close way down again, the Dow closing at a -251.  So, the disappointing outnumbered the good reports and there was once again the continuing sentiment that good news is bad news.  Q3 GDP came in its strongest in two years and that only sent shivers through the market that continues to “challenge the notion that the Fed will start lowering rates in 2024.” 

S&P 500, Nasdaq end sharply lower as Alphabet disappoints, Treasury yields bounce

Tech got hit hard today with all the indexes taking a sharp plunge around just after 11:30 a.m.  Investors would have been wise to do some shorting early this morning as last night’s after-hours plunge from Google should have had everyone on alert as the mega-cap’s disappointment did indeed send the whole market spiraling downward and that, added to good economic data sending Treasury yields back towards the 5% mark, made for a bad day. With robust home sales and mortgage rates at a 23-year high, our expert sums it up.  

Wall Street surges to close higher, powered by upbeat earnings, guidance

It was another big seesaw day on all three indexes with all of them up big by 11 a.m. (the Dow almost +350), then falling to almost break-even by 1 pm, then soaring again to another high by 3 pm, the best news being that all three stayed in the black all day for a change. It was apparently around 1 pm that a slew of upbeat Q3 reports came in which lifted sentiment dramatically after two weeks of disappointments. It also brought Treasury yields nicely below the dreaded 5% mark which has so spooked investors in recent sessions. 

Wall Street ends mixed as Treasury yields ease, focus turns to earnings

All the indexes were on a roll all morning, the Dow up about a hundred points, and then come 1 pm all started a slide where they lost all their gains by close, the Dow even going into the red almost 200 points. What happened at 1 pm is not clear. The only explanation: “The market has accepted the idea that the Fed is not going to lower rates any time soon,” which of course has been a continuing theme of the slide we saw all last week.  

China Unraveling

Yesterday we talked about one topic that's been in the market news for quite some time -- rates.  Today we talk about another oft reported news item -- the threat from China as Consuelo Mack from PBS WealthTrack devoted her episode last week to this very pressing topic.  

All About Rates

Since Fed rate policy in order to tame the highest inflation we've had since the 1970s  (remember President Gerald Ford's famous dictum "WIN" (Whip Inflation Now) has been so very prevalent in the market news for such a very long time, when our friends at Heritage Capital Management did a column about it last week, I thought it a very appropriate time to put all this in perspective. Frankly the only thing that puzzles me about rate hikes is that anybody is puzzled about them at all. Did anybody really expects rates to stay near zero forever?  Anyway, food for thought as we enjoy this weekend.  

Wall Street notches weekly loss as benchmark US bond yield eases

It was a third straight day of reacting to the Fed remarks of possible more hikes and Treasury yields continuing to rise, today just barely brushing above the critical 5% mark by 1/1000%.  It was a shot straight down on all the indexes with a partial recovery between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. but then diving again even lower, both the Dow and Nasdaq with again big 3-digit losses.  The good news is that the experts are saying this is misplaced pessimism, that investors are focused too much on macro events and ignoring all the great Q3 reporting.  

Wall St ends lower on Powell remarks as benchmark Treasury yields near 5%

The slide continues with today’s remarks from Fed Chair Powell that more hikes may be needed after the market had formed such a strong consensus of no more hikes, but also mixed with an equally strong consensus of “higher for longer.” The complaint has been “The lack of clarity is causing a reduction in confidence.” But hasn’t the Fed been quite clear that they will be watching the data and making decisions accordingly looking for the economy to slide and the labor market to cool off?  

Wall St ends down sharply; yields rise again, investors assess earnings

For days now, the Wall Street mantra has been, “the market often ignores geopolitics” (which really isn’t at all true but whatever allows investors to sleep at night) and certainly today the sentiment reversed. The mounting tensions have stoked risk aversion allowing safe haven Treasury yields to rise and stocks to take a big dive straight down on all three indexes, the Dow and Nasdaq both down well into 3-digits. There is also some sector rotation going on with investors trying to second guess which stocks are going to do well and which ones will not in this rapidly changing new environment. On the Q3 front, P&G beat market expectations while United Airlines came in below. Volume is up today just a tad above the 4-week average at 10.48 billion. 

Nasdaq ends down on higher yields, chipmaker share declines

It was a volatile day Tuesday with all three indexes bouncing back and forth between red and black, the Dow seeing a low of a -130 and a high of a +170 before settling near break-even at close.  On the one hand, higher Treasury yields made stocks less attractive while the other hand had good Q3 earnings pushing stocks up. There was the third hand of increased retail sales and factory output turning good news to bad news as the healthy data also pointed to the concerns of “higher for longer.” And of course, there was also the fourth hand of the Middle East, all in all making for a volatile day.  Volume is still a tad below average at 10.25 billion. 

Wall St ends sharply higher, Treasury yields gain as earnings, data loom

All three indexes were straight up all day long, the Dow reaching a high of a +400 by 11 a.m. and then staying steady the rest of the session.  “It’s some buying the dip,” said one expert and the fact that “markets often ignore geopolitics.”  Friday Q4 optimism seemed to have vanished but today it’s back as Q3 is expected to go well and as proof that companies are doing well despite high rates. Q3 reporting continues in earnest this week with several heavy hitters as well as new data on retail sales, industrial production and housing. Volume remains below average at 9.7 billion. 

AAII Investor Update: Index Fund Expense Ratios May Be Bottoming Out

For those of you who are big on index funds, here is the latest and greatest from the AAII.  

7 Best Dividend ETFs to Buy Now

Once again on the subject of investing for income, the latest on dividends from this week's edition of U.S. News Invested.  

S&P 500, Nasdaq fall with data, geopolitics offsets strong results

The day got started with a bang with all the indexes up, the Dow some 330 points, but then began an almost immediate decline but at least still managed to close in the black. The S&P and Nasdaq were not so lucky, both declining and going well into the red.  Even though Q3 reporting got started today with a bang with the three big banks turning in stellar results, consumer sentiment fell sharply with all our good data “expected to deteriorate over the next several months.”  

Dollar, yields rise, stocks fall after US consumer price data

After staying near break-even all morning, all the indexes took a big dive right at 1 pm, which is likely when the CPI report came out showing a larger than expected increase, even though it was the smallest in two years, and reinforcing the fears of higher-for-longer for rates and pulling the Dow down 350 points. (At 2 pm, there was a rebound that recovered half of those losses.) It put a damper on T-bills, slowing demand and sending yields higher. So just as yesterday’s falling yields sent stocks higher, today’s sent them lower. There’s even today a dampening of the optimism over a bright Q4 as today’s expert put it, “it’s gonna be difficult with all the uncertainty.” 

Wall Street advances as bond yields fall, investors digest Fed minutes

The indexes all opened high, the Dow up almost 150 points. Then suddenly at 11 a.m. they all took a nosedive again not only losing the gains but the Dow going 130 points into the red until about 2 pm when the buying started again and everyone closed in the black after all. The Nasdaq did better, staying in the black most of the day.  Everyone was selling ahead of the Fed releasing its September minutes, and the news of continuing uncertainties supported the view of no more hikes, which caused another buying spree, particularly on the rate sensitive issues.  

Dovish Fed officials boost Wall Street as bond yields retreat

The buying continues as the optimism over Fed remarks regarding no more rate hikes got a boost for second day when the Atlanta Fed prez reiterated Tuesday that the central bank does not need to raise interest rates further, and sees no recession ahead. Also helping the cause was the 10-year yield coming off a 16-year high thus also helping to boost stocks. As today’s expert put it, “Everybody has one eye on the Middle East and one eye on bond yields.”  Right now the Fed headlines are knocking all others off the front page. Minneapolis Fed prez also boosted the no more hikes scenario and a soft landing for recession. 

Wall Street advances as investors monitor Mideast conflict headlines

With the unexpected war this weekend, all the indexes were understandably down quite a bit this morning, the Dow and Nasdaq both in the red over 150 points each, but that all changed around 1 pm when the Fed unexpectedly took a more dovish tone indicating they could steer away from further hikes. This triggered another buying spree with all the indexes not only recouping all losses but ending the session comfortably in the black.  

10 Best Tech Stocks to Buy for 2023

Yesterday we talked about the best investment opportunities in environmental change. Today we talk about the best current opportunities in tech.  

Climate Change Pragmatism

This is a topic that has certainly been on everyone's mind for quite some time now.  This week, WealthTrack devoted its episode to the topic.  

Stocks rally, bond yields soar on blowout US jobs data

Though the day started with a modest decline, after 10 a.m. it was a straight shot up on all the indexes with the indexes recouping all the week’s losses by close and to a new weekly high. It must have been around 10 a.m. that the September payrolls report came out and it was a blowout with almost double the forecasted number of increased jobs, 336K new jobs (in addition to a sharply revised increased in August numbers) shocking the market. Even though more new jobs would be taken as bad news as it does not help inflation, the consensus today is that inflation is decelerating and wage growth moderating sufficiently to call this very good news.  

Wall St ends down slightly; investors await Friday's payrolls

It was a straight shot down huge right from the open, the Dow losing nearly 200 points by noon, then all the indexes began an ascent that got them to near break-even by 3 where they remained until close. The decline was blamed on recent jobs data that showed a still very tight labor market, another reason why Friday’s payrolls report will be the most important and anxiously awaited news of the week. The ascent may have been triggered by San Francisco Fed prez Mary Daly who said today that there may not be a need for any more rate hikes. Investors still eagerly await Q3 reporting with the forecast now being a 1.6% increase. Volume was below average at 9.76 billion. 

Wall St ends up after recent weakness; consumer discretionary gains

Much volatility, up and down between red and black all day, at least on the Dow but also on the S&P and Nasdaq though both of those managed to stay in the black all day.  Today’s trigger was just the very smallest hint of the good news that payrolls increased less than expected, once again giving rise to hope that inflation is getting under control and maybe future Fed policy won’t be so tight after all.  But, to keep perspective, today’s expert said, “We’re a little bit oversold. It seems it finally sunk in that interest rates are going to remain higher for longer.” (Gee I thought they had already come to that conclusion a couple weeks ago.)  As before, everyone is looking for Q3 to jumpstart the market again.  Volume was a tad below average at 2.5 billion. 

S&P 500 ends at lowest since June 1 as data fuels rate worries

It was a straight shot down from the open with most of the losses incurred by noon but then staying at the low for the rest of the session, all due to refreshed concerns about rates remaining high. It was yet another day of “higher for longer.” Inflation concerns were raised again with an unexpected increase in job openings suggesting a continuing tight labor market. Friday’s jobs report will be more telling.  Atlanta Fed prez reiterated that it will be a long time before any rate cuts. Investors look forward to Q4 reporting which are hoped to lift the market. The Dow is now slightly in the negative even though the Nasdaq, despite recent downturns, remains up 25% for year, mostly on optimism over AI.  Volume was above average at 11.16 billion. 

S&P 500 ends near flat; utilities drop, focus on rate outlook

Another volatile day with both the Dow and S&P deeply in the red, the Dow down almost 300 points, until about 1 pm when they started rising again with the S&P breaking even, the Dow losing 74.  The Nasdaq fared better staying in the black all day and gaining 88, mostly on a boost from Nvidia which got another endorsement from Goldman Sachs. September was a month of uncertainty with all three indexes losing for both the month and the quarter and all hopes on October and Q4 doing much better.  All eyes are now on Friday’s jobs report.  Volume was a little above average at 10.8 billion. 

10 Best Growth Stocks for the Next 10 Years

We've covered the topic of investing for income.  Now for the latest on the opposite side of the coin.  

3 Tips for Investors in a Government Shutdown

Of course, the really great news is that this article is already dated since, as of about 3 hours ago, the Congress approved a bill to avert the shutdown. Still, it's good to have this stuff for future reference. 

S&P 500 dips after US inflation data, ending weak third quarter

All three indexes opened well into the black but began an immediate decline such that by 1 pm all had slid into the red and kept sliding the rest of the day with a small glimmer of recovery in the final hour. The PCE numbers came in better than expected, in fact the lowest in two years, but still showing an elevated inflation picture. Today’s selling confirms that investors are finally waking up to “higher for longer” and the almost certain government shutdown come Sunday isn’t helping. For the month, all three indexes are down between 2.6 and 4.1%. Volume was a little above average at 11.3 billion but part of that was due to quadruple-witching from JP Morgan. 

Wall St ends higher as investors digest economic data ahead of inflation report

It was yet another seesaw today with the indexes up and down like crazy, but at least in positive territory, and the Dow up about 200 midday but then decline in the afternoon to close up 116.  A pause in Treasury yields has brought some relief and, as today’s expert put it, “A little bit of a counter trend rally is to be expected after three or four pretty sharply negative days.”  All are looking to Friday’s PCE report for an up-to-date picture on inflation with “growing anticipation that it won’t run hot.” Meanwhile, nerves are on edge over the increasing likelihood of a government shutdown. Volume was above the 4-week average at 10.7 billion. 

S&P 500 ekes out slim gain as investors weigh elevated yields

Wow, what a gargantuan sell off as investors continued to grapple with the new normal of high rates with all the indexes being down big time, the Dow in the red over 300 points.  That is, until about 1:30 when everything came back to almost break-even, excepting the Dow still down 68 at close, but that’s a lot better than down 320.  What happened at 1:30? A good guess per today’s expert, “At some point people will start to buy stocks for the fourth quarter, going to get back to thinking the fourth quarter might be a pretty good one.” If that’s the consensus that’s good news. It means the recent plunge has been an emotional one, not based on the data which is positive.  

Wall St pounded as investors grapple with higher rates

It was a big shot straight down today for all the indexes as investors continue to adjust their expectations given recent Fed remarks regarding continuing high rates. Today’s expert summed it up nicely, “We continue to adjust to higher interest rates, increasingly a sense that the market is overvalued, that this isn’t sustainable, buyers are being scared away.” The VIX closed at its highest level in four months. Triple digit losses all around with volume in line with recent averages at 10.2 billion. 

Wall Street posts gains as investors eye rate outlook

It was a seesaw day with all the indexes down in the morning but then building to modest gains by close. This illustrates the “tug of war between investors seemingly getting more concerned about ‘higher for longer’ and bulls wondering maybe we have seen the correction and can start to build from these levels higher.” There’s a lot of fence sitting going with investors waiting for data this week on durable goods, PCE and Q2 GDP. And still another Fed prez said today that fighting inflation to the 2% goal is less risky than slowing the economy. Though the S&P has slid more than 5% since late July, it is still up 13% for the year. Volume remains below average at 9.1 billion. 

7 Best Energy Dividend Stocks to Buy

Continuing on this weekend's theme of investing for income ...  

5 Best Short-Term Investments for Generating Income

Higher interest rates also mean better income generating opportunities and this week's edition of U.S. News Invested is dedicated to just that very topic. Enjoy the weekend.  

S&P 500, Nasdaq notch biggest weekly losses since March

The bad news is five days of losses in a row. The bad news is all three indexes registering their worst weekly losses since March as investors continue to digest the Summary Economic Projections that suggest that high rates will remain in place longer than expected. The good news is that the markets were actually up quite a bit until about 1 p.m. suggesting the digestion was done. It was likely at 1 p.m. that Fed Governor Bowman doubled down on previous Fed statements suggesting rates should be raised even further and then stay there for an extended period of time. 

US stocks close at lowest since June, Treasury yields spike on hawkish Fed

All the indexes continued on their post-2:30 pm decline from yesterday to spend the whole day in constant decline with the Dow and Nasdaq both in triple-digit losses over the mantra “higher for longer.” Another big contributor to the decline were four additional central banks from the U.K. to Switzerland following the Fed’s lead and hiking their rates.  (See chart below.) As today’s expert put it, “The headlines this morning were quite something when it came to central banks. All of them were hawkish.” A 9% drop in jobless claims also points to a labor market that remains too tight, pushing up wages and “ratcheting up the possibility that we won’t get a soft landing.”  Volume for once was a little above average at 10.76 billion. 

Stocks slide, US yields rise after hawkish Fed stance

Once again you can count the clock by the Fed as it was just around 2:30 p.m. that all the indexes took a big dive, which was likely right after the unexpected Fed announcement that policy would remain tight through next year and that there would also likely be another hike before the end of this year. The Fed remains committed to a 2% inflation target and the forecast not particularly encouraging as the Summary Economic Projections have PCE going to 3.3% vs a prior forecast of 3.2%.  They are leaving rates higher for longer to make sure to slay the inflation dragon. 

U.S. stocks close lower as investors take cover ahead of Fed decision

It was a down day all around but it was an especially down day for all the indexes until about 1 pm with the Dow plunging more than 300 points by that hour before all three rebounded to regain most of the losses by close. The sentiment is “risk-off” hedging bets against a big unpleasant surprise from tomorrow’s Fed. Whereas there are 99% odds of a continued pause on Wednesday and an increasing 70.9% odds of another pause in November, the real hesitation comes from Wednesday’s publication of the Fed’s Summary Economic Projections which will give the real story on inflation and whether the Fed will be planning rate cuts in 2024. If the pauses continue longer so rates remain higher than desired, that would be considered a hawkish position, not what the market wants. A plunge in housing starts added to the uncertainty. Volume remains below average at 9.6 billion. 

Wall Street moves sideways as investors look to Fed By Stephen Culp

All three indexes were on a big roll all day until about 1 pm, the Dow up over a hundred, then all three started a steady decline to end the day at break-even.  All are sitting on the sidelines awaiting the Fed’s report on Wednesday despite the now 99% virtual certainty of a continued rate pause. That aside, as today’s expert put it, “Powell can spark big moves in either direction with his comments and you don’t want to get caught on the wrong side of it.” 

9 Highest Dividend-Paying Stocks in the S&P 500

Again, U.S. News Invested has made their recent recommendations on the highest dividend-paying stocks for those who wish to invest for income.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

Great Investor Lessons

This week's WealthTrack features an interview with Steve Romick who has a Gold Analyst rating as he shares lessons he's learned over an illustrious 30 year career.  Enjoy the insights and have a great weekend.  

Wall Street tumbles, Treasury yields gain as focus turns to Fed

It was a stunning day for losses with all three indexes taking a big dive, and an especially big dive at about 1 p.m. The tech index took a big hit when Taiwan asked for a delay in chipmaking equipment and other reports were mixed showing rising import prices, rising industrial production, and a UofM survey showing consumer inflation expectations cooling. (See chart below for the consumer expectations.) The 7% odds of a September rate pause are holding and the odds for November have been raised to 68.5%.  Volume was almost double but that was likely the result of options expiry. 

Wall Street ends higher on economic data; Arm soars in debut

Good news all around shot all three indexes on a straight path up, the Dow and S&P gaining triple digits. Retail sales beating forecasts, unemployment benefits climbing a bit, and PPI rising 0.7% vs 0.4% provided the shot in the arm that the economy was now well positioned for a soft landing without being hot enough for more rate hikes. The consensus became “All together, it’s pretty bullish.” And Arm’s big debut provided more optimism, “Capital markets are open for business.” The for a September Fed rate pause now stand at an astounding 97% while a November pause has today risen to 67%.  Volume was right in line with the 4-week average at 10 billion. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq gain, Treasury yields dip as data firms Fed pause bets

Everything was up most of the day, the Dow up a hundred points in the morning, then all came crashing down rather abruptly around 2:30 p.m.  It was likely right around that time that the CPI data was announced showing that, though Core CPI (which excludes energy and food) was down ever so slightly, total CPI was up at its fastest pace in 14 months from surging energy prices. What was a very good day overall until the last hour turned into a very middling day with the Nasdaq and S&P up modestly, the Dow down modestly, and tech only warmed up because of the now 97% chance that rates will remain paused. See below for a chart of 5 inflation gauges and where they stand today.  Volume came in at 10 billion shares traded. 

Wall Street ends lower as Oracle tumbles on weak forecast

Tech got hit today with a combo of Oracle putting out a weak forecast and oil prices surging which always portends more rate hikes. Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI will be watched carefully for hints on inflation and rate hikes. There remains a 93% chance of a continued pause in hikes for September and 56% for November. And will the ECB finally pause rates on Thursday after 9 consecutive hikes? $36B shares of Tesla were traded, but with more selling than buying brought it down 2.23%.  Volume remains light at 9.4 billion. 

Wall Street rises as Tesla soars on AI optimism

The indexes all started way up, the Dow up some 200 at open before almost immediately diving until noon, the Dow down to breakeven but the others still fairly well in the black. The afternoon session saw much better with the Dow regaining half of its ground by close and the tech-heavy S&P and Nasdaq doing considerably better.  The afternoon was saved mostly by a 10% rally from Tesla which received its boost after Morgan Stanley said its market cap could increase by $600 billion.  This pushed up the other megacaps but, though investor sentiment is up expecting optimistic CPI and PPI reports this week, but consumer sentiment was down as views about inflation showed expectations of continuing high prices and bleak personal finances.  Volume remains light at 9.3 billion. 

Guidelines for Selling Stocks

The latest from the AAII:  How To Sell Stocks.  Including knowing where the exits are.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

Market Reset

This week's edition of WealthTrack raises the question that, after years of poor fixed income performance and advisors cautioning clients to avoid the tradition 60/40 stock/bond allocation formula, with the massive change in fixed income returns that traditional "safe assets" are back. So perhaps it is time to reset our portfolios.  This issue gets discussed with Mark Cortazzo who calls for a major realignment in portfolios. Enjoy the weekend.  

Dollar has 8th straight week of gains; U.S. stocks edge up

All the indexes were up, the Dow over 100 points, until about 2 pm, then came crashing down with everyone except the Dow closing only modestly up, basically at break-even, but the cyclical Dow still up 75, which is what happens when the market gets nervous about tech. Once again, strong economic data added to the skepticism that inflation is being tamed and that the Fed will keep rates steady for longer than the market wants. 

S&P, Nasdaq fall as Apple drags, jobless claims data fuels rate jitters

The traditional Dow did okay but tech had a bad day as China put curbs on iPhones, requiring some state employees to stop using them at work. This created an immediate panic causing Apple to fall nearly 3% and Apple suppliers to fall 7%, China being such a huge part of the market and equities in general. The Philly tech index fell nearly 2%, the S&P tech 1.6%. 

Wall St slides as economic data stokes inflation and interest rate worries

All the indexes took a big dive in the morning, the Dow down some 300 points by 1 pm before beginning a turnaround and recapturing a hundred points before close.  The Purchasing Managers’ Index came in 2 points higher than expected suggesting a still too hot economy and sending waves of skepticism that inflation is not being tamed and that rate cuts are not forthcoming. 

Wall St slips as Treasury yields rise, oil prices boost energy sector

All the indexes spent most of today’s session in the red, the Dow closing down 195 points with the rise in Treasury yields providing the market with a good alternative to stocks. Today, confidence was waning that the Fed would continue on its friendly course, as today’s expert put it, “Everybody’s been expecting the Fed to step aside or start cutting rates. That might not be the case.”  

10 Best Investments for 2023

To close out this holiday weekend continuing with our theme of best investment opportunities, here's yet another list.  But the headline is a bit deceiving. It's not really about the 10 best investments, but about the 10 best investment areas, which means it's really a very concise mini-course on general investing. Click on the link for the entire course.  Hope everyone had an enjoyable holiday. 

10 Best-Performing Stocks of the Past 30 Years

For the benefits of your labors for this Labor Day weekend, this is a list from U.S. News Invested of the top stocks of the past 30 years that have had the best returns, meaning basically that you cannot lose with any of them.  Enjoy the holiday.  

Will the Stock Market Crash in 2023? 7 Risk Factors

Per Friday's edition of U.S. News Invested, here is what 50 leading economists say are the major risk factors for going into recession later this year. I don't really agree with all of them but I submit them anyway for your consideration. But aren't the major pre-indicators of recession when consumer spending falls (which it hasn't) and unemployment rises (which it has, but in this case it's good news because the labor market has been much too hot for a long time now.)  Plus aren't most economists now predicting a soft landing? But as I said, for your consideration ... 

S&P 500 ends higher as jobs data fuels rate-hike optimism

All the indexes were way up in the morning, the Dow up some 220 points, before all went into a dive around 10 a.m. reaching break-even around noon, then begin a slow rise for a modest gain on the S&P, the Nasdaq still a wash, the Dow still up 115 at close.  The employment report again reinforced optimism for a rate pause for which the odds in September now stand at 93% vs 80% on Monday. For the week, the indexes were all up between 1.4 and 3.2%. 

Wall Street ends mixed as inflation data buoys optimism

All the indexes were up and down quite a lot today, the Dow up some 200 points in the morning before sliding to almost as many points in the red by close. The Nasdaq up some hundred points in the morning and rising and falling twice before closing at near break-even, and the S&P following a similar pattern. The reports were mostly positive today with PCE coming in at 3.3%, jobless claims falling and Treasury notes easing, all continuing to point to softening inflation and thus keeping the odds of a September pause high. For the month, all three indexes fell about 2%. I had to laugh at the statement, “Investors believe the Fed is data dependent.” They believe?  For how many months now has the Fed been very clear about allowing the data to drive its policy decisions?  Volume remains light at 10.2 billion. 

Wall Street ends higher as economic data fuels rate-pause bets

The traditional Dow rose only modestly but the tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P had very good days with all of today’s data coming in lower than expected, thus encouraging the optimism over continuing rate pauses. Private payroll increases came in at 177K (vs 195 est) and GDP growth at 2.1% (vs 2.4), all of which supported a cooling economy and thus also cooling inflation. The odds for a September pause now stand at 89% vs Monday’s 80% and also increasing optimism for a soft landing. Monday’s prediction for light volume all week proved true for a third day with only 9 billion shares traded.  Thursday is PCE, Friday non-farm payrolls. 

S&P 500 ends sharply higher, jobs data fuels interest rate optimism

It’s too bad that Monday’s experts all said that the last week of summer should not be trusted, because so far, the last week of summer has been fantastic.  All the indexes were way up all day in triple-digits again as investors decided to take an even more positive stance on Powell’s remarks last week and the fact that today’s job openings report came in with a decline for the third month in a row hiked the optimism that “maybe interest rate hikes are indeed behind us.” There are now 87% odds (vs yesterday’s 80%) that the rate pause will continue into September and 54% odds it will continue into November. The PCE report is due Thursday, the payrolls report Friday, both of which are hoped to clarify rate hike likelihoods. As predicted yesterday, volume does continue on the light side at 10 billion. 

US stocks close green, Treasury yields waver as crucial data awaits

Even though the indexes once again had a very good day with triple-digit advances, the consensus was that this unofficial final week of summer is historically not to be trusted and that investors will be on the sidelines until we get back into earnings season.  There will be a great deal of new data coming this week ahead of the holiday that will tell the markets more about coming Fed rate intentions and the odds of another pause in September now stands at 80.5%. Volume was very light at 8.2 billion and is expected to remain that way throughout the week. 

LEGENDARY VALUE

Exactly what is "legendary" value? Well, with the market being saturated with any number of managed funds, and with this year's darling quite often being next year's loser, any fund that can maintain its winning status over time will become a legend. That is what this week's WealthTrack explores. While most funds survive for at most a few years, any fund that stands out for decades rather than years deserves the moniker of "legend." This week's guest, Steve Romick, has just such a fund which is now celebrating its 30th anniversary of delivering near 10% annualized returns with less than average market risk.  Something that deserves a serious look.  Hope everyone enjoyed this beautiful weekend.  

7 Stocks With Large Insider Trading Buys

We are all familiar with the legal version of insider trading, that is by simply looking up the publicly available information of what stocks company insiders, particularly upper management, are buying. That is exactly what this week's issue of U.S. News Invested is devoted to.  Enjoy the weekend.