Wall St. mixed as U.S.-Canada trade talks end

The Dow spent the last day of the “summer” swinging back and forth in a 150 point range finally settling for a 22 point loss at close when talks with Canada to replace NAFTA went awry today.  Not that the deal is off but after so much optimism over trade talks all week, this was a splash of cold water.  For the second day, Amazon had a good session bringing it ever so much closer to that coveted $1 trillion dollar mark and Apple closed with its fifth consecutive all-time high.  As things go in August trading, volume was below average at just under 5.8 billion shares.  But unlike a typical August, it’s just a little below average, being propped up by positive economic fundamentals. 

Wall St. rally ends as risk-selling grows on rising tariff fears

The four day rally has ended and, if you look at the chart, it is plain to see that the crash started right after the announcement of another $200 billion dollars in tariffs against China.  This negated even the progress that was being made in trade talks with Canada.  All three indexes fell, the Dow by 137 points.  On the plus side, Apple reached still another record high and today Amazon passed the $2,000 dollar mark putting it well on the path to becoming the second company in history to reach the trillion dollar mark in market value.  The Fed’s inflation gauge, the PCE price index, posted a 2 percent increase, hitting the bank’s target and signaling the continuing likelihood of additional rate hikes this year.  Being late August, volume remains below average at just barely under 6 billion, and just barely below average. 

Wall Street extends rally, tech leads S&P, Nasdaq to record highs

The promise of continued trade negotiations, now with Canada, kept the market rally going today pushing the Dow up another 60 points.  Apple hit another all-time closing high today selling at just under $223 dollars per share and good grades from Morgan Stanley boosted the FAANG stocks Amazon and Google.  Among the good news with fundamentals is that Q2 GDP has been upwardly revised to 4.2 percent, its highest in four years.  August is traditionally a light volume month and today’s volume was below average at 5.6 billion, but because of the strong fundamentals influencing the market, volume is considered not as light as in a typical August. 

Wall Street ekes out gains as Canada takes trade spotlight

It was a rollercoaster day with the Dow swinging back and forth in a 90 point range while investors try to decide whether to cash in on yesterday’s big gains or to stay the course with all the good news that’s on the horizon as trade talks begin with Canada.  The end result was a near wash with the index up a mere 14 points on relatively light volume of 5.6 billion. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq hit new highs on U.S.-Mexico trade deal

A trifecta on the trade front boosted the Dow another 3 digits to a 259 point gain with (a) the announcement of a deal with Mexico to replace NAFTA, (b) immediate talks with Canada expected to do the same and (c) accelerating talks with the EU on tariffs there.  As the trade disputes have been a major impediment to investor commitment despite strong fundamentals and earnings, this news was welcome all around, so long as market gurus remain optimistic that these deals might actually materialize.  Volume was considerably closer to recent averages at 6.2 billion shares. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.24.18 (plus 10 Reasons Why It’s Tough to be a True “Intelligent Investor”)

Below please find the usual weekly summation with jobless claims falling by 2,000 on the positive side of the ledger and existing home sales falling my 100,000 on the negative side.  This Sunday night's bonus is another little mini-course on investing, 1800 words succinctly summing up the Benjamin Graham approach to investing (the same approach Warren Buffett uses) in ten simple steps or, as Buffett himself puts it, "simple, not easy."  This of course could explain any investment strategy or philosophy since it all boils down to one thing -- buy low, sell high.  Simple, yes, but far from easy.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  We have a very steamy week ahead.

S&P Hoop dee doo!

So there's been much hoop dee doo in the last couple of days about the S&P scoring its longest running bull market in history.  And no sooner was the proclamation made that any number of pundits and wizards emerged to challenge the claim.  In fact, I believe that Barry Ritholtz wrote a column just a few short weeks ago challenging the validity of this "longest running" bull market.  And let's face it, me thinks they've got a point.

S&P 500 reaches new high to clinch record bull run

The Fed has spoken and there is no rate increase this month, though the statement did nothing to convince anyone that an increase isn’t coming next month.  The S&P picked up another 17 points so today officially closed above the January 26^th high confirming in the minds of many experts that the index’s bull run remains intact, a new record high, a new record run.  (Or is it?  More on that tomorrow.)  There was even some objective good news today as orders for U.S.-made goods increased more than expected.  All three combined pushed the Dow into another triple-digit gain.  The ripple effect was another dip in the dollar which subsequently triggered better oil and metal prices.  Volume is still below average at 5.4 billion so evidently the Fed’s position on interest rates is not really the reason investors remain on the fence.  Perhaps it is the trade war, after all? 

Wall St. weighed by new round of U.S.-China tariffs

Once again the market was going along swimmingly with the Dow up 50 points early in the session only to be dashed by the announcement of $16 billion dollars of new tariffs against China which was promptly answered by $16 billion dollars of new tariffs from China.  The Dow dove 150 points but recovered to close down 76.  And as usual, Boeing and Caterpillar, the two companies with the heaviest commitments to China, took the biggest hits and were the biggest drags.  And all this is going on in the midst of talks, the only bright spot on Wall Street’s radar for this trade war.  Everything that went wrong today from the drop in crude and metals to Hormel’s bad Q2 was attributed to these tariffs.  Fed Chair Powell will be speaking on Friday about the status of rate hikes, which is probably the reason why volume was considerably below average at just under 5.7 billion. 

Wall St. end mixed as S&P marks longest bull run

A minor correction today with the Dow dipping 88 points with the primary impetus credited to the legal woes of Manafort and Cohen and how that might impact Trump.  Overall though the Fed minutes released today had minimal impact on the indexes with bankers discussing rate increases but much more concerned about the potential for the trade disputes to disrupt businesses and households.  From the macro point of view, market uncertainty is being created by the flood of negative news on Trump even though the S&P has now enjoyed its 3.453^rd day of a bull run.  The other side of this coin is that the S&P did in fact experience a correction in January from which it still has not recovered, not even yesterday when it hit an all-time intraday high.  Volume remains below average at just under 5.3 billion shares. 

S&P touches record high, equals longest-ever bull run

It was the third session with the Dow advancing on more Q2 reporting and relative optimism in progress on trade talks with China.  Today was a bellwether day with the S&P now marking its 3,452^nd day without a correction, a.k.a. the longest bull market run in its history.  (For perspective, this is just by some metrics; by others there have been a number of corrections.)  Trump’s knocking the Fed ahead of what will likely be another interest rate hike on Wednesday caused a drop in the dollar which in turn helped commodity prices.  Volume remains lower than average at just under 6 billion. 

Wall St. rises on trade optimism, pares gains after Trump Fed comments April Joyner

It was the second consecutive session the market took comfort in trade talks with China and the Dow zoomed up 120 points though late session comments from Trump criticizing the Fed and interest rates caused late selling that brought the index down to close up 89.  Why the President’s remarks would cause investor concerns is quite curious since the Fed did not actually do anything today; the speculation about rising rates was just that, nothing official even if it is widely accepted but still hardly news.  The likelihood of a hike when they all get together at Jackson Hole on Wednesday has been expected for some time.  But Q2 is now more or less done so, for this week anyway, all eyes are on Wyoming.  Volume was rather thin at 5.3 billion.  

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 8.17.18 (plus the low cost of Medicaid)

Submitted below is the usual Sunday night weekly summation, the plus side including high nonfarm productivity, much higher retail sales than expected, and consumer sentiment coming in at 97.9.  We continue to have the irony that on the minus side industrial production was much lower than expected and same store sales rose much lower than expected.  This Sunday's bonus is a neat little graphic that shows that the cost of paying for low income people's Medicaid has actually become lower than subsidizing private health insurance, for those who may think that this program for the poor is not cost efficient.  Hope everyone had a great weekend. We're certainly in for some pleasant weather this week.

Old Age Isn’t What Ends a Bull Stock Market

There have been a number of commentaries written in the past year or two about the length of this bull market and how long can it sustain since it's gone on longer than the historical trends, or so say some experts by some metrics.  Today in his Weekend Reads, Barry Ritholtz gives his perspective on this long running market and why he believes traditional rules don't apply.  It's a short read and well worth the time.  Happy reading and happy weekend.

Wall Street rises on upbeat trade news

Another 3-digit rally as reports of tariff talks with China and Mexico boosted the Dow 110 points, with the tariff sensitive Boeing and Caterpillar once again benefiting the most.  Four more companies have reported in today making a total of 467 of 500 with 79.2 percent beating estimates.  Volume was just a little below average at just over 6 billion. 

Wall St. rallies on solid earnings, U.S.-China trade talks

Yesterday the market tanked because of a single company, Macy’s, going sour on Q2.  Today a single company, Walmart, turned in a stunning Q2 report and the market leaped big time.  Yesterday, the S&P saw its biggest drop since June. Today the Dow saw its biggest gain since April.  Earnings have once again taken over the market and it didn’t hurt matters at all that trade jitters got momentarily quelled with China sending a delegation to Washington to talk things over.  The Dow shot up almost 400 points and 463 of the S&P companies have now reported in with more than 79 percent beating estimates.  Today also Penney’s joined Macy’s as one of the biggest losers plunging a huge 27 percent in one day, an all time low for the company, because of a poor Q2 and even poorer forecast for the remainder of the year.  To keep things in perspective, the expert wisdom for today is “this shows the schizophrenic nature of the market when short-term market action is pegged so closely to trade wars and tariff talks.”  At just under 6.4 billion, volume was just a tad below the 4-week average. 

U.S. stocks drop on downbeat earnings, trade tensions

Wed 8-15-18

Turkey is back up front and center stage as disappointing Q2 reports today and Turkey retaliating by doubling tariffs on U.S. imports had investors panic selling again and driving the Dow down 137 points.  All it took was one bad report from Macy’s to liquidate all the optimism.  As usual, Caterpillar and Boeing, the two companies most vulnerable to tariffs, were again the biggest drag on the Dow.  Oil also took a hit dropping the energy index by more than 3 percent, and again the result of an unexpected surge in inventories.  All of this combined to strengthen the dollar even more sending it to a 13 month high and the S&P to its biggest drop since June.  The good news included higher retail sales and the fastest increase in farm productivity in three years.  Volume was heavy at nearly 8 billion shares traded. 

Wall St gains on upbeat earnings, easing Turkey jitters

Oooh, so much can change in a day.  Yesterday the wisdom was that “the market is all about Turkey” and investors took no solace in the steps the Turkish banks were taking to strengthen their troubled lira.  Today, the lira began its rebound and suddenly the sentiment returns to the familiar “the market is all about (Q2) earnings” and all the global geopolitical issues are just so much background noise.  The Dow rebounded gaining back almost all of yesterday’s losses and Q2, in its final stretch, now has 458 companies reporting in of which 79 percent have topped Wall Street estimates.  (Keep in mind that Q2 is getting a big boost from the tax laws passed last December and that this boost is not expected to filter in to the rest of the year.  There is also the issue of the inflated earnings generated by presales to beat tariffs, something again that will not be there in Q3 and 4.)  At just under 6 billion, volume was a little below the 4-week average.   

Wall Street dragged down by fall out from Turkey's plunging lira

The great Turkish purge continues as the teetering country continues sending shock waves around the world following the U.S. doubling their tariffs.  The Dow lost for a third consecutive session, the last two being triple digit with today’s bath scoring at 125 points. Turkey’s pledge today to stabilize their currency, which has dropped 40 percent for the year, did not allay investors’ nerves.  As today’s expert noted, “The market is all about Turkey.”  On the plus side, both Apple and Amazon hit all-time highs and almost 80 percent of 455 S&P companies have beaten Q2 forecasts.  At 6.3 billion, volume was just a tad below the 4-week average. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.10.18 (plus Zero-Fee Index)

Below please find the usual Sunday night weekly summation as supplied by Barry Ritholtz in his The Big Picture blog from the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal.  Job openings are up and jobless claims are down.  This leads us to the negative side of the ledger which shows that there is now a bigger shortage of qualified workers than there are unemployed workers.  This Sunday night's bonus is the latest and greatest from Bloomberg as presented on Ritholtz's Sunday reading list, the recent announcement from Fidelity of their new fee-free index funds. We're always looking to cut the costs of trading; this is certainly one way.  Hope everyone had a great weekend. 

America, 10 Years After the Financial Crisis

There have been many stories written about the 2008 market calamity that triggered the Great Recession but this article posted today on Barry Ritholtz's Weekend Reading List seems a particularly well written if quite lengthy treatise on this topic.  Thus I provide only the link this time, not the text.  There's enough narrative here to make a small college-level textbook. It certainly should prove valuable for providing some perspective.  But for those of you more interested in a snapshot, I present a nice little one below that illustrates how green energy has boomed in recent years.  Hope everyone's enjoying this pleasant weekend. 

Wall Street ends lower as Turkey woes hit banks

After losing 200 points right out the gate and 300 by the session’s low point, the Dow recovered in the final hour to close down about 200, all on fairly vigorous volume and attributed to a bearish panic caused by the doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum from Turkey, further weakening an already weak Turkish economy and creating global shock waves.  It scared investors into safe haven assets like U.S. bonds which in turn hurt yields and the entire financial sector.  Volume was 6.7 billion, above the 4-week average. 

S&P 500, Dow end lower with energy, financials; Tesla falls

For the second consecutive session the Dow has lost ground, today another 74 points.  Though the tech FAANG companies had gains they were offset by drops in financial and energy.  Though the S&P lost a few points it remains close to the Jan 26 record high.  The strengthening labor market has been insulating the economy despite the labor tensions and this was further reinforced with unemployment filings falling last week.  As Q2 winds down, volume was again a little below average at 5.9 billion shares traded. 

S&P 500, Dow edge down as oil prices, trade worries weigh

It was another when even the marvelous Q2 couldn’t keep away trade jitters as China introduced new tariffs on U.S. goods and dropped the Dow modestly down 45 points, being led by the China-heavy U.S. exporters Boeing and Caterpillar. Crude also dropped almost a full percent on the same worries.  But now with nearly 90 percent of S&P companies reporting and almost 80 percent of those beating forecasts, Q2 is still buffering the market from all the other bad news.  Since it is reasonable to assume that China thinks it’ll get a better trade deal if the Democrats take back the House in November, there’s no reason to think they’ll deal now so we’re stuck with these tensions at least until then.  Volume was a little below average at 5.9 billion. 

Amazon and Microsoft nudge S&P 500 closer to record high

The Dow had another really big day, up almost 200 points right out the gate and settled slowly throughout the session to close up 126 points.  The S&P came within 15 points of all its all-time high reached Jan. 26 and provided investors with further assurances that the now almost decade-long bull market will likely not be ending soon.  And the Nasdaq continues to go great guns with strong earnings relieving concerns about potential corporate blowups.  An amazingly strong Q2 continues to provide the market a buffer against trade issues.  Almost 80 percent of reporting S&P companies have topped estimates and if the trend continues as Q2 now winds down, it will be the highest quarter on record since 1994.  The CBOE “fear gauge” dropping nearly 11 points remains at its lowest since January and volume is just a tad below average at 6.2 billion shares traded. 

Wall Street closes higher as strong earnings cheer investors

First the Dow was down 80, then it zoomed up 160, then down again to close up 39.  Once again, trade tensions have investors on edge though on days like today robust earnings overshadow that.  Today the volatility index had its lowest close since January.  Berkshire Hathaway went through the roof reporting an incredible 67 percent surge in Q2 profits.  And with 413 of the S&P reporting, an astoundingly high 79.2 percent have beaten estimates.  So that’s where the upswings came from, the downswings from the not so nice progress today in trade talks with Iran and China.  Volume was below average at 5.9 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.3.18 (plus Summer Camp for the Ultra-Wealthy)

The usual Sunday night weekly summation is supplied below with the positives being unemployment down a tad and a corresponding negative that jobless claims are up a tad.  Personal income is up but non-farm payrolls are down.  Home sales are up but mortgage applications are down.  Store sales are up, but factory orders rose less than expected.  Where there's a yin, there's a yang.  The bonus this Sunday is again the #2 item on Ritholtz's Sunday reading list, this time about a special summer camp for the super wealthy and how they teach their children how to manage wealth.  There have been a number of classic books along these lines (i.e., "Rich Dad, Poor Dad") but the advantage of today's post is that, at 1200 words, it's a nice succinct summary, advice that's not just for the super rich but for everybody.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.

The Insane Saga of the Fake Saudi Prince Who Scammed Miami's Rich and Famous

This Saturday's Weekend Reading list is linked below and the second article seems particularly entertaining.  Since the business we're in is so fraught with scams and cons, this account of a particularly nasty and successful scam struck me as very instructive for those of us wishing to spot the "tells."  As always the text from Vice.com is reproduced below but the link to the entire reading list also offers a lot of very nice graphics.  Enjoy the weekend. 

Wall Street gains as upbeat earnings trump trade jitters

For the second consecutive day, Apple is a $1 trillion plus company, and even added modestly to its holdings today.  The Dow, after a lousy day yesterday, was on a straight spiral up today adding 136 points.  The Nasdaq, which did great guns yesterday, spent most of today in the red but did manage to close up 9 points.  Q2 is now 4/5 over with 78.6% beating estimates, down from 79.6 yesterday.  China has launched its latest tariff attacks and U.S. employment for July was 33,000 fewer jobs than expected.  But the S&P has had five consecutive weekly gains, its longest stretch so far this year.  Everything keeps humming along except that anxiety over tariffs remains the 600 pound gorilla in the room.  Volume was a little below average at 5.9 billion. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as Apple hits $1 trillion mark

During the last two days, Apple has had a huge surge that today has put it over the $1 trillion mark.  It was a big boost to the Nasdaq and to the other FAANG companies, taken as a particular positive on the whole trade war issue given the fact that this could happen despite the fact that the company makes most of its products in China.  But today anyway the tech gains have eased the trade tensions a bit and Q2 continues swimmingly, now with nearly 80 percent of the S&P reporting and nearly 80 percent of those beating estimates.  The Dow was not so lucky, taking more than a 200 point dive right out the gate but managing a small gain in late session, then to fall to a small loss at close.  Also keep in mind that Apple has had dramatic swings up and down for years and particularly this year so two days of great numbers don’t yet make a trend despite all the optimism to the contrary.  Tomorrow they could very well fall below the trillion dollar mark again.  But today anyway Apple has made history.  Volume was a little above average at 6.6 billion. 

S&P, Dow edge down after Fed decision; tech boosts Nasdaq

Wed 8-1-18

Once again everything was going great.  The FAANG stocks and tech companies were all coming back and then came the announcement of another tariff threat against China and everything came tumbling down, the Dow losing 81 points.  The market just cannot get a handle on this trade situation and there are growing concerns about the direction in which it is heading.  But Q2 is now 2/3 complete and, as of today, profit growth estimates are now at a whopping 23.3 percent, up from 22.9 just yesterday and 20.7 July 1^st.  Apple hit another all-time high but energy tanked by another drop in crude, as before triggered by this continuing overstock problem.  Volume was once again above average, today with 6.8 billion shares traded.