For the New Year, a 5 Minute Investing Course from the AAII

On this very frigid New Year's Eve I offer this little gift from the AAII, a five minute read with 19 investing resolutions for the New Year.  Hope everyone is staying warm this holiday weekend.

Favorite Wall Street Movies

For my second to final post this year, and given the fact that this holiday weekend is traditionally second only to Christmas night as the biggest movie of the year, I was pleasantly surprised to find that today's Barry Ritholtz blog was about all the best Wall Street movies.  He says he's giving you four flicks but there are really six.  I have seen them all, (own most of them) they are all excellent, ranging everywhere from the slappiest of slapstick comedy (Trading Places) to intense drama of Wall Street excess in Wolf of Wall Street, to the most starkly realistic portrayal of stock fraud (Boiler Room and Wall Street) to a most entertaining and somewhat angry explanation of how greed and corruption in the financial services industry brought on the Great Recession in both The Big Short and Margin Call. 

Wall Street quiet on last trading day of a strong year

On this the last trading day of the year, the commentaries have been retrospective.  This year the S&P has surged almost 20 percent and all the indexes have reached repeated record highs scoring the best annual numbers since 2013.  The VIX topped out at just under 16, well below the long-term average of 20.  Tech has been the best performer, telecom and energy the worst.  Today all the indexes fell on light trading, the Dow down 118.  One word of caution:  there is a lot of optimism built into this market which could reverse if expectations for the coming year disappoint.  Today’s volume was just under 5 billion, below the 6.4 billion average for the month, but well in place for the holiday week.  Happy New Year! 

Wall Street rises as financials, tech advance

The light trading of the holiday week continues with tech getting a little boost for the second consecutive day after a 5-day losing streak.  The good news is that the sector is up more than 37 percent for the year and the S&P is on track for its biggest gains since 2013, a trend expected to continue into 2018.  At 4.2 billion shares traded, volume is about 2/3 normal. 

Wall Street edges up as tech snaps skid

After losing 8 points yesterday in very light holiday trading of 4 billion the Dow was up again today, this time to the tune of a very modest 28 points, again in very light trading of 4.3 billion.  With tech being down, that sector had a little rally today but, as has been noted, all of tech is still way up for the year.  Energy lost a bit too but that’s okay since it hit a 2-1/2 year high yesterday. 

Wall Street slips on tech sector weakness

We are definitely on track for a slow week with everyone home for the holidays.  Tech once again pulled lower mainly due to tepid iPhone X demand but the sector is still up 40 percent for the year.  Energy was up again led by OPEC supply cuts and retail is on track for its best holiday period since 2011.  But all the pluses and minuses were just barely able to move the market with the Dow down less than 8 points and volume very low at 4 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 12.22.17 (plus the AAII CAN SLIM course)

One last Merry Christmas to one and all!  Below is the usual weekly summation with Q3 GDP rising over 3 percent and bitcoin losing over $100 billion dollars.  Yes, that's a "b," 1/10 of a trillion!  This holiday weekend's bonus is a beautifully concise explanation of the IBD CAN SLIM approach to investing.  No need to slog through William O'Neil's 500 page classic text, "How To Make Money In Stocks."  Just read this article instead.  We are a FastTrack group but it seems that by far the next most popular strategy out there is CAN SLIM so I submit this as a Christmas present to the group as an introduction to the IBD strategy for those who may not be familiar with or understand it.  Hope everyone continues to enjoy the holidays.  Today is Black Tuesday, the day we get the best deals on everything.

LPL loses $462,000 arbitration claim stemming from broker who ran Ponzi scheme

Keeping in the holiday spirit I started yesterday with entertaining stories about investment scams that would make great movies, I'll follow up tonight with another entertaining tale of financial chicanery from Investment News, only this one ends with the crook getting his comeuppance.  Merry Christmas everyone!

He Stole $100 Million From His Clients. Now He’s Living in Luxury on the Côte d’Azur

I tried really hard to find a warm and cheery article for this Christmas Eve weekend but came up flat.  Then I started thinking that Christmas is not only the season for comfort and joy but also the week that all the best movies of the year debut in theaters.  We are the only species of life on the planet that is not only attracted to good stories but really quite need them to help us make sense out of life.  So I finally came across this article from today Big Picture blog by Barry Ritholtz and Bloomberg about a financial/investment scam so intricate and clever that it would make a great movie. 

Wall Street slips heading into holiday

Anybody certainly could’ve seen this one coming since it happens before every holiday and Christmas is the biggest of all holidays.  So yes there was a big slowdown in trading today as investors began winding down ahead of Yuletide bringing the Dow down a very modest 28 points.  Nevertheless it was a very strong week namely due to the euphoria of the passage of the tax bill which the markets are hoping will trigger strong corporate earnings, stock buybacks and a flurry of M&A activity. 

Energy and financials power Wall Street's rise

Yesterday, with the passage of the tax bill, the market took a little breather with a 28 point dip.  Today the toes were back in the water testing the temps and, with a pick up in bank and energy stocks, investors got a little 55 point boost.  The market appears to be very optimistic about the coming year.  New Q3 data showing that the economy had grown at its fastest pace in more than two years helped the boost too.  At 6.1 billion shares, volume was below the 6.9 billion 4-week average. 

Wall Street edges lower, pauses as tax bill clears Congress

Since today’s passage of the tax bill was pretty much already considered a done deal, the markets took a breather today with all three indexes pulling back ever so slightly, the Dow down 28, the S&P 2.  Energy got a boost from an unexpected drop in crude inventories as did telecoms which are seen to be the future biggest beneficiaries of this bill.  At 6.1 billion, volume was a little lower than recent averages. 

Wall Street eases as investors look past tax revamp

There was a little hiccup in the Senate today and the bill had to be sent back for parliamentary corrections, which means the final vote will have to be repeated in both the Senate and the House which means a delay of another day or two.  Naturally the market reacted with just a little bit of trepidation and though the major consensus is that it’s still going to pass, it did cause a brief pullback bringing the Dow down 37 points.  The experts aren’t at all concerned as they believe that the bill is already priced in.  At 6.6 billion, volume was very close to the 4-week average. 

Tax plan optimism propels Wall Street to record highs

So tomorrow’s the big day that everyone expects a vote on the tax bill … and expects the vote to pass, making this the first piece of major legislation passed by the Trump administration with Republicans in control of both branches of government. This expectation alone was enough for another triple digit gain and another record close as the bill is expected to be big boost for stocks.  Since the boost to stocks is in turn expected to provide a boost to M&A activity, today there has already been a flurry of announcements of new deals – Hershey buying SkinnyPop, Campbell buying Pretzel and Cape Cod, Penn Gaming buying Pinnacle Entertainment.  7.1 billion shares were traded, slightly above the 4-week average. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 12.15.17 (plus No Silver Bullets)

Once again I submit the usual Sunday night succinct summation of the week with the indexes once again making new all-time highs based on a combo of strong economic data plus anticipation over the tax bill with the negatives on the minor side such as producer prices rising 0.1% more than expected.  I submit two bonuses this Sunday, both from Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture Sunday reading list.  The first is an 81 frame slide presentation, "No Silver Bullets," about proposed strategies for maximizing fixed income returns in a low return environment. 

Wall Street closes at records with tax overhaul in sight

Yesterday there were seven Senators leaning towards a no (two strongly leaning) on the tax bill and the Dow dropped 77 points.  Today it seems all seven have had their concerns assuaged and are now either leaning or committed to yes.  Investors responded with great relief and enthusiasm pushing the index once again to a triple digit gain.  

Wall St falls as investors fret about tax bill passage

With at least two more Republican senators now threatening a no vote on the tax bill, and as many as seven considering a no, what was thought to be a sure thing just two days ago now has a cloud over it which has investors worried enough to bring all three indexes down, the Dow to the tune of 76 points.  The narrative of the bill benefiting mostly the wealthy is gaining traction and that has some lawmakers concerned.  So stocks fell even though reporting remains positive with retail sales increasing more than expected.  There is also the monkey wrench of the repeal of net neutrality, very much protested by the public, which has the market struggling to evaluate that potential impact.  Almost 6.7 billion shares were traded putting volume slightly above the four-week average of 6.5 billion. 

Wall Street mixed as financials drag after Fed rate hike

Today the Fed did exactly what it was expected to do and the market responded in kind with the Dow up 80, and Nasdaq 13.  The only laggard was the S&P, up initially but took a late session pullback for, of all reasons, investors thinking the Fed was not being aggressive enough now.  For years they’ve been complaining that the Fed has been too aggressive.  There’s no pleasing some people.  The Fed GDP growth forecast was boosted a big 25%.  The big focus now is whether the tax bill will go to Trump’s desk for signature before Christmas.  A big step was made in that direction today when the Republicans in the House accepted the new bill.  Volume was a little above recent averages at 6.7 billion shares traded. 

S&P, Dow rise with help from banks; Nasdaq lags

The Dow up three digits again and reaching another record with good news about consumer prices easing concerns about low inflation and thus continuing to push up financial stocks.  Investors are becoming more comfortable with the recovery so cash is coming off the sidelines and into equities, the outlook for ’18 being very upbeat.  There is now a forecast of 88 percent of the Fed raising rates again tomorrow.  Volume was in line with recent averages at 6.5 billion. 

Wall Street ends higher with help from tech, energy

All the indexes closed higher again today as tech and energy continued their comebacks, suggesting investors have grown weary of sector rotation.  There is once again the cloud hanging over all the optimism that as rates go up growth might slow, meaning good news for the economy may not be good news for the market.  Bitcoin started trading on the exchanges this morning which has shot its price way up while investors shrugged off today’s terror attack on the Port Authority.  At 5.8 billion shares traded, volume was below the 6.5 billion average. 

Succinct Summations for the week ending December 8th, 2017 (plus GQ article on savings)

Below is provided the usual weekly summation with the terrific payrolls report and low unemployment figures.  This Sunday's bonus from the usual source (Barry Ritholtz's Sunday reading list) is a remarkable succinct article from, of all places, GQ magazine, about the best strategies for building savings.  And since our savings are what finance our investing, it also a good primer on investing.  A short read, enjoy, and hope everyone had a great weekend.

Wall Street closes higher after payrolls report

A great payrolls report announcing 228,000 new jobs against a forecast of 200,000 boosted the Dow 3 digits again and shot tech stocks up enough to completely erase the nearly 2 percent decline from early week.  The market has now priced in 96% odds of a rate hike at the Fed next week, which will further cement confidence in the economy and continue to boost financial stocks.  At 5.8 billion, volume was down a bit from recent averages. 

Wall Street rising: Facebook, Alphabet, Lululemon gain

Tech is rallying back after losing almost 3 percent in recent sessions, but today pushing the Dow up 70 points.  The market does not seem particularly concerned about a possible government shutdown as economic data continues to be positive, the latest that filings for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell.  All that aside, eyes will be on tomorrow’s payroll report to gauge the real strength of the labor market.  At 6.4 billion shares, volume remains in line with the 4-week average. 

Tech recovers, but not enough to push Wall St. higher

The tech sputter has been momentarily stalled as the big players rose more than a percent partially offsetting the recent selloff as investors rotate into financial stocks.  But the Dow still dove a modest 39 points (the S&P a very modest 0.3) as the market continues to ponder uncertainty over the tax bill.  But the YTD news remains strong with the S&P trading at more than 18 times earnings for the first time in 15 years.  With last week’s exuberance fading, volume is back to more normal levels at 6.3 billion shares traded. 

Tech rally burns out, leaves Wall Street lower

Tech continued to lose ground today as profit-takers dominated the trading pushing the Dow down 109 points.  The AMT on the tax bill will be a major point of contention between the Senate and the House, the Senate wanting it kept, the House wanting it gone, so though investor sentiment remains that tax reform will get done, it’s still likely to be quite a fight.  Because of the unusually high volume of the past few days, today’s lower volume of 6.9 billion was still enough to stay slightly above the 4-week average of 6.7 billion. 

Stocks fade after record run as U.S. tax bill digested

Since the Senate passed its version of the tax bill in the wee hours of Saturday morning, investor enthusiasm had the entire weekend to fire up, and fire up they did with the Dow blasting up 300 points right out the gate.  But this was quickly tempered with the reality check that there was still a long battle and two more major votes ahead so profit takers soon dominated and brought the lead down to a 58 point push for another record close.  The S&P also had an intraday record before pulling back as the market is clearly in rotational mode out of the tech arena and into financials.  The already strong dollar also rose as the tax bill is seen as encouraging more Fed rate hikes.  And oil pulled  back again on yet another sign of increased production despite this years-long glut.  Volume was again very high at 7.9 billion shares traded. 

Succinct Summations for the week ending December 1st, 2017

Below please find the usual Sunday night weekly summary with the broken record continuing that again all indexes have reached new all-time highs.  Economic data remains strong and what did not make this report since it didn't happen until ten hours after this was posted, was that the tax bill passed in the Senate in the wee hours of Saturday morning by a 51-49 vote, though there remain weeks of negotiations ahead between the House and the Senate. 

House vs Senate Tax Code

Courtesy of  today's post on Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture blog, this is a very nice summary of the competing Senate and House tax bills, the ultimate outcome of which will very likely impact the market.  

Whipsawed by Washington, Wall Street ends modestly lower

So once the announcement was out that Flynn had pleaded guilty and was now cooperating, news of the tax bill got knocked off the front page.  Given the greatest blow yet to the Trump presidency, the future of the bill is not nearly as assured tonight as it was this time last night, but there is still a fair amount of procedure in the future.  There remains high confidence that the votes are there but, as we all know, in Washington anything can and often does happen.  But investor confidence has fallen a tad bringing the Dow down 40 points.  But volume today was still way above average at 8.2  billion.