Tech lifts S&P 500, Nasdaq; indexes post gains for quarter

Investors switched back to tech today and the Nasdaq was saved by the bell. As of yesterday, it was slated for its first loss since November but instead, with a 201 point gain today, it just barely squeezed into the black by 0.4% for the month.  With the steady rotation from tech to cyclical, the Dow and S&P did much better 7% and 4% monthly gains respectively.  For Q1, the gains were 8 and 6 with the Nasdaq also gaining 3 percent. With the day’s boost towards tech, the Dow lost 85 on the session. Econ data shows hiring was boosted in March on the strength of more people getting vaccines.  Volume remains considerably below average at 11.4 billion. 

Wall Street dips, with technology the biggest drag

It was another wild swinging day with all three indexes losing ground with the 10-Year note hitting a 14 month high and the rotation from tech to value continuing. Nasdaq will have its first monthly loss since November with investors flopping back and forth between tech and cyclical but with cyclical winning on optimism over a recovering economy.  Today, value was up 0.1% while growth dove 0.6 percent. Value will likely continue to rule for a few days during quarter-end reallocations. Volume remains well below the 4-week average at 10.3 billion. 

S&P 500 ends a hair lower; hedge fund default concerns hit banks

It was another seesaw day with the indexes, especially the Nasdaq, deeply in the red in the morning on concerns from hedge fund defaults, then rising again almost as sharply in the black in the afternoon, then losing about half of these gains in the final half hour.  The Dow did close 98 points in the black but both the Nasdaq and S&P closed down. Optimism over the economy is what’s credited for stemming the declines. Volume remains considerably below average at 11 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 3.26.21 (plus Sources of Greenhouse Gases)

Below is the usual weekly summation, the main positive, as before, being 1/2 billion vaccinations globally and 137 million in the U.S.  Conversely too, as before, the main negative is the rising infection rate and new spikes in serious illness and deaths due to complacency. The bonus this Sunday is a very startling graphic showing two different studies in which the data points to agricultural production as the main source of greenhouse gases. This certainly deserves some study as conventional wisdom has always held that industrial production is the main source.  Which is true? Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

Vital Stimulus

As I've had the tendency to do lately on the Saturday posts, tonight I submit once again for your weekend viewing pleasure this week's segment of the PBS program WealthTrack. This one is quite timely as it deals with a once fringe school of economic thought called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) which has in recent decades become mainstream, and how the latest unprecedented round of stimulus is impacted by this theory. Consuelo Mack interviews one of the leading experts on MMT, Paul McCulley, a Georgetown business school professor.  Enjoy.  And enjoy your weekend.  

Wall Street rallies on strong recovery hopes

We have yet another day when everyone’s hot on both growth and value as both the tech Nasdaq and the cyclical Dow had big rallies, once again on strong optimism for a recovery. But much of the surge happened in just the last fifteen minutes, almost 200 points of it that is. This may have been triggered by the latest Fed announcement raising GDP projections for 2021 from a relatively positive 4.2% growth to a hugely positive 6.5% growth. The biggest kicker is that many economists are on the record today that even the 6.5% forecast may be entirely too conservative.  This has changed the landscape again making all stocks, both tech and value, equally attractive to investors.  The biggest concern today is that the super good news on the growth forecasts has the markets a little frightened that the Fed, though firmly committed to keeping interest rates low, may be forced to change its mind and stoke inflation.  Volume remains below average at 12.2 billion. 

Stocks rebound in late-day rally on Wall Street

Lordy, what a tumultuous day with the Dow diving about 500 points by 10 a.m. before starting a huge rally that lasted the rest of the session pushing the index up 700 points to close up 199.  The seesaw, which has been quite prominent lately, is the continuing rise and fall as investors rotate away from growth and toward value, with growth being feared as over-valued and maybe on its way out as the economy recovers and value being seen as equally under-valued and ripe for the picking. This unique reverse correlation between the Dow and the Nasdaq is expected to continue for some time and optimism is reflected in the CBOE “fear” index falling below 20.  Volume remains below average but catching up, today at 12.7 billion. 

S&P 500 slips as tech stocks pull market lower

It was yet another day rushing to take profits from tech and transferring them to value with the Dow up over 350 points in mid-session only to come crashing down to close even.  But at a flat close, value was way ahead of growth which tumbled 1.4% during the session.  All of this was triggered by Powell and Yellen giving rosy forecasts for the coming year’s economy, which is what value holders want but tech does not.  But investors remain on the sidelines given the expectation that Q2 is going to bring great news, though evidence of this is still wanting, which explains the lull.  Everyone remains bullish about the recovery.  Volume is picking up and getting close to the 4-week average at today’s 12.7 billion. 

Stocks slide as stimulus, infrastructure costs spook investors

This certainly has been a slow market to react to the issue of how to pay for this relief bill. This should have happened a couple weeks ago but today was the day that investors finally decided to become worried about higher taxes and the cost of infrastructure plans, exacerbated by the already high alert on too-high valuations. The panic sellers took over bringing the Dow down 308 and the Nasdaq 149.  The elevated valuations have also created a sense of urgency in a potential selloff with traders trying to get ahead of this curve.  But tech has declined so sharply as bond yields rise that there are plenty of bargain hunters out there scooping up stocks that have gone into 10 to 20% corrections. Volume remains below average at 12.1 billion. 

Wall Street closes up on tech rebound; Tesla gains

It was a day of bargain hunting as tech rebounded from the recent slide toward value and cyclicals.  It was no surprise to see the badly beaten down tech sector get a bounce and the easing of the yield on the 10-year note helped ease the very inflation fears that had fueled the tech sell off to begin with.  Nonetheless, the trend is definitely heading toward value and, as today’s expert indicated, “It’s going to look like tech and growth are back but it will be much more moderate than people think.”  But value is good; value means that things are improving. Removing Friday’s quadruple witching effect, today’s volume was back to being substantially below average at 10.9 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 3.19.21 (plus 7 Best Green Mutual Funds)

Below is the weekly summation, the main positive that 20% of the U.S. population has now been vaccinated (but they haven't gotten to yours truly yet, despite being over 65), the main negative quite ironically being that vaccine hesitancy putting both pandemic and economic recoveries at risk. The bonus this Sunday is this week's edition of U.S. News Invested featuring the best mutual funds that are green.  Hope everyone enjoyed our very pleasant first weekend of spring.  

Momentous Market Shift

Once again I submit for your weekend viewing pleasure this week's segment of the PBS series WealthTrack hosted by Consuelo Mack. We've been observing for a few months now, as optimism concerning recovery just keeps increasing, that investors are engaged in a major historic shift from the high-flying tech stocks that fared so well under the pandemic to the more traditional value stocks expected to do very well in a recovering economy. Market guru Richard Bernstein takes the helm this week in explaining the dynamics behind this shift which covers a vast range from a new party in power to rising Treasury bond yields. Enjoy the program and enjoy the weekend.  

Wall Street ends mixed as Treasury yields pause

With a second day to absorb the bad global pandemic news since yesterday’s lockdown in Paris, the pandemic tech stocks got a boost while reversing the trend of going to value with the Dow dumping 234 points.  Adding to the reversal was the 10-year note stabilizing at the 14 month high after weeks of rising, changing market leadership back to growth and tech. The Nasdaq remains 6% below the February high but that’s a lot better than the 12% dip it was in a couple weeks ago. Today the growth index rose 0.35% while value dropped 0.48.  Of course, this is just one day’s reaction to bad news. The next hint of good news will reverse this trend again. Volume was 16.5 billion, much higher than average, but due to the quarterly quadruple-witching, which means it can’t be trusted. Wait until Monday for better volume numbers. 

Wall Street ends sharply lower, hit by bond yields and COVID-19 worries

Paris has gone into lockdown with a surge in COVID and that has awakened us Americans to the fact that, though there is optimism here, that has not yet infected most of the rest of the world. This realization caused panic selling today sending the Dow down 153 and the Nasdaq sharply down 409. Data showing an increase in unemployment claims and the 10-year Treasuries hitting a 14 month high also didn’t help. The transfer from tech to value continues though. Dollar General which has benefitted from the pandemic fell. AMC, which is reopening its theaters on the hopes of recovery, climbed. Volume remains well below average at 12.8 billion. 

S&P 500 and Dow end at record highs after Fed projects stronger economy

It was a pretty good day overall but got a great deal better after 2 pm when the Fed made the announcement that they expected rapid economic growth as COVID winds down. Though this statement was expected, the consensus is that it was even more optimistic than expected and making it official boosted the markets, the Dow up 189 points and, for another record, over 33,000 for the first time. It’s odd that it was seen as more optimistic than expected since on Monday it was reported that the expectation was for the biggest growth in decades. How was what they said today more optimistic than that glowing prediction?  Following the statement, the 10-year Treasuries ticked lower and the rotation from tech to value continued. Volume remains considerably below the 4-week average at 11.9 billion. 

S&P 500 ends lower as investors eye Fed meeting

Tech came back just a tad but value stocks took a hit today with the Dow dipping 127 as investors sit on the fence awaiting the first Fed meeting to be held since the bond market took off and their take on inflation.  Don’t really get why they need Fed reassurances on this as Yellen has already stated that inflation is not a concern, especially in view of the Fed likelihood to continue accommodative policy into the foreseeable future. The fear gauge hit a 5-week low and retail sales dropped due to the severe cold in February. As investors move a little more towards cash awaiting further news, volume remains below average at 12.2 billion. 

S&P 500 and Dow end session at record highs

Strange day, strange that the Dow was actually in the red most of the session and only zoomed up to a 174 point gain in the final half hour. Why? What happened between 3 and 4 p.m.? No explanation given below beyond the usual that we are continuing to see gains due to the rotation from tech to value due to optimism in a recovering economy, an economy that the Fed now says will grow in 2021 faster than it has in decades. The 10-year note yield came down almost ½% and the Dow hit its sixth straight record, up 8% for the year with the S&P close behind up 6% for the year.  Volume was considerably below the 4-week average at 12.5 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 3.12.21 (plus The Drivers of Deforestation)

The weekly summation is below, the main positive this week being 100 million vaccine doses administered (though at 67, I have not yet been able to get an appointment), and the main negative on the other side of the coin being the 535,000+ U.S.  deaths from COVID-19.  Market-wise, the main positive was the falling rate of jobless claims, the main negative the rising bond yields and subsequent inflation fears.  

“THE ULTIMATE BUY AND HOLD ON STEROIDS!”

I've always been a "buy and hold" investor myself but I do understand that many of you prefer short-term strategies. However, this upcoming AAII seminar in April on "Buy and Hold On Steroids" just might be a very good middle road. Full information and a registration link is provided below. Enjoy your weekend.  

U.S. stocks close mixed as Dow notches fifth straight record high

It was another big day for the blue chips as rising bond yields once again sent investors fleeing from tech stocks and into the value sectors. Inflation worries took hold as the stimulus package is expected to grow the economy by nearly 9% this year and thus continue forcing interest rates up.  The 10-year note hit a one year high as did consumer sentiment. The Nasdaq fell once again, though still considerably above correction territory, and the Dow zoomed 293 points for its fifth consecutive record. Despite the tech exodus though, the Nasdaq registered 396 new highs vs only 12 new lows. Volume was considerably below average at 11.6 billion. 

S&P 500, Dow end at record highs after upbeat jobless claims data

For the second day, the market is absorbing the good news about inflation which shot all three indexes up again, boosted by the additional good news of a fall in jobless claims and the signing of the stimulus bill.  The Nasdaq had a particularly good day with the stalwarts Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon recouping their losses from prior sessions and pulling back more again from correction territory.  In just a few days, the index has gone from 12% down from the February high to today just 5% down. The rotation continues. Value stocks which suffered during the pandemic are recovering their valuations while the tech stocks which benefitted from the pandemic are giving back part of theirs in a market where valuations in general are at an extreme. The Dow was up some 350 points around noon but settled at close 188 points up, the auction of 30-year Treasury bonds did nothing to stoke more inflation fears and the fall in jobless claims gave added optimism in strides toward a pre-pandemic life.  Volume remains below the 4-week average at just over 13 billion. 

Dow hits record in stock rally as inflation fears recede

Good reports concerning inflation removed a major fear factor from the market as 10-year Treasury notes rose less than feared as did consumer prices. This created a boom in the Dow shooting it up 464 points as the rotation from tech to value continued with the Nasdaq way up during the session due to the calming news on inflation but then coming down to close even. Equities continue to be helped by a surprisingly strong Q4 and recovery optimism. The retail traders continue to go gangbusters and are expected to benefit from the $1400 stimulus checks, much of which will likely be put into the market.  Volume was below the 4-week average at 13.8 billion. 

Nasdaq surges as tech stocks roar back

Whoa! The Dow was up some 350 points shortly after noon and then steadily declined throughout the afternoon session to close just about even. As I suspected yesterday, there was indeed a huge rally on the Nasdaq today as it regained 4% of its lost footing and is no longer in correction territory thanks to bond yields retreating and lots of bargain hunters scooping up beaten down tech stocks. So the rotation from tech to value took a breather today with funds going from value back to tech, but with the relief package due to pass any day now, the rotation back to value will undoubtedly be back. Volume was a little under the 4-week average at just under 14 billion. 

Nasdaq hits correction, Dow advances as stimulus bill nears finish line

The Nasdaq fell a little over 300 points and the Dow rose a little over 300 points as the migration from the tech pandemic stocks to recovery cyclical stocks continued in droves. The Nasdaq has now officially entered correction territory having today fallen 10.6% from the February high (but I suspect there’ll be another rally in tech tomorrow.)  There remain concerns over inflation with the stimulus bill and recovery but Yellen today asserted that the stimulus would fuel a very strong recovery without dangers of the economy running too hot.  High valuations have weighed heavily on the Nasdaq and rising bond yields have also contributed to the mass migration over to value. Volume was just over 14 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 3.05.21 (plus map of 42 states restricting voting rights)

The usual weekly summation is included below, the main positive being that 83 million doses of the vaccine have now been given, the main negative being this week's broad-based sell off on the Nasdaq losing all YTD gains. The bonus this Sunday night is a graphic that is either disturbing or delightful depending on one's point of view. It is a map of all 50 states showing to what degree state legislatures putting forth bills to restrict voting rights are currently taking place and, as you can see, the majority of states are trying to pass such bills since the November election. As I said, it's either good news or bad news depending on your politics or how you feel about the 2020 election.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

GameStop Investors

For your weekend reading and viewing, I once again offer the week's WealthTrack program and yet another perspective on the whole GameStop phenomenon. Whether this will ultimately prove to be illegal or just clever grassroots stock manipulation, the one thing that the experts seem agreed on is that this brand new trend of social-media fueled retail investor speculation is not going away anytime soon.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Fueled by tech, Wall Street rebounds at end of volatile week

All three indexes were heavily in the red until about noon when things began turning around with a big rally in the tech sector, particularly Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple and Oracle. Earlier in the day, the Nasdaq officially entered correction territory but recovered steam later and ended the day 8% down from the February high vs yesterday’s 9.7% down. The Dow recovered most of its previous losses with a gain of 572 points. 10-year Treasuries hit a one-year high at over 1.6% with payrolls increasing more than double the forecast. Both the Dow and S&P rose for the week with only the Nasdaq losing as funds continue to migrate away from pandemic tech stocks and into recovery cyclical stocks. Volume was considerably above the 4-week average at 17.4 billion. 

Nasdaq ends sharply lower after Powell comments

You might say the stock market has really gotten used to corporate welfare as today they expected the easy money from the Fed to continue with more bond purchases to bring down interest rates that are triggering a big sell off in tech. But today Powell made it clear that the Fed had no such intention except to continue status-quo. Thus the major sell off continued in spades driving the Dow down 345 points. And why shouldn’t it?  

Wall Street drops as high-flying tech stocks retreat

The Dow was about 150 points up most of the day until the last hour when it took a sudden drastic dive and closed down 121 points. Once again it was the ongoing flight from the tech stocks to the financial and industrial sectors and others that will do well in a recovering economy that ruled the day with rising interest rates continuing to erode growth stocks which sent major players like Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon down. There was also less hiring in February suggesting a struggling labor market and today the exclusion of high-income individuals from the relief bill.  Volume was much closer to the 4-week average at 14 billion. 

Wall Street ends lower as Apple and Tesla retreat

What a choppy session, swinging back and forth between red and black in a 250 point range but closing with the Dow down 143 points. The trend continues with funds transferring from pandemic stocks to recovery stocks. Tech is taking an overdue dip with rising interest rates cutting in to their future cash flows and the Senate has begun debating the relief bill.  Yields on the 10-year Treasuries have stabilized. So even if the indexes took a dive today, the news remains largely positive. Volume remains well below the 4-week average at 12.3 billion. 

S&P 500 surges in strongest one-day rise since June

All three indexes surged back with great force today as concerns over rising bond yields and inflation got overrun by J&J’s approved 3^rd vaccine and the relief bill passing the House and bolstering expectations of a swift recovery. Sentiment is back to “risk-on” and cyclical stocks are again receiving the benefit with manufacturing increased to a 3-year high. Per today’s expert, “the recent weakness has dissipated.” But volume was considerably below the 4-week average at just 12.1 billion.