S&P 500 ends best quarter since 1998 on a high note

Acting on the belief that a stimulus backed rebound of the economy was on its way, the Dow added another 217 points and the S&P another 47 to finish Q2 with the biggest percentage gain in 20 years, the S&P its biggest since 1998, the Nasdaq since 1999, the Dow since 1987.  Despite the surge in new virus cases, the economy shows signs of pickup and consumer confidence increased more than expected.  Dr. Fauci however warns against too much optimism stating that the virus “could get very bad” and the road to recovery could be very long, a sentiment echoed by Fed Chair Powell.  At 10.7 billion, volume was below recent averages. 

Wall Street ends higher on Boeing bump, stimulus eyed

Today the good news outweighed the terrible with Gilead announcing pricing for the COVID-19 drug and committing most of its supply to the U.S.  Despite the spike in infections throughout the South and West and threats of deep recession, the S&P is up more than 17% for Q2, a rebound of 36% from the March low. All in all, the Dow got a boost of 580 points aided by widespread expectations for more Fed stimulus and by reports of May home resales hitting a record high signaling a turnaround in the housing market.  Volume was just under 10.6 billion, a little below recent averages. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 6.26.20 (plus ROSENBERG UPDATE - from Consuelo)

The weekly summation is below, the main positive being the previous hot spots of NY, NJ, CT, and MA are now seeing their lowest infection, hospitalization and death rates since the beginning, the main negative being the huge surge in the new hot spots in several states across the south and west. The bonus this Sunday is the June 25th segment of Consuelo Mack's PBS series Wealth Track and her special guest David Rosenberg and his commentary on where the economy is heading. Spoiler alert: it's not a particularly rosy picture.  It's also not anything that should particularly surprise anyone. Welcome to summer!  Hope everyone had a great weekend. 

AAII Making the Grade: Factor Investing With A+ Investor - YouTube

For your weekend homework, the AAII (and more specifically senior AAII guru Wayne Thorpe) hosted another virtual webinar this week on yet another uber strategy for outfoxing the indexes in this very difficult market.  It should prove to be a very productive hour.  Enjoy the heat for the rest of our weekend. 

Wall Street ends lower as coronavirus surge prompts renewed restrictions

With the double whammy of the dramatic increases in new cases of COVID-19 in Florida, Arizona and Texas and the China trade deal in possible jeopardy, the Dow took another enormous dive of 730 points as investors continue to lose faith that the recovery is going to be quick in coming.  The reconstitution of the Russell indexes triggered a gross exaggeration of trading volume so, as we also do whenever we have the quadruple witching effect, we’ll have to wait until Monday to find out what’s really going on.  Right now it looks like restrictions will almost certainly be put back in place which will not reflect well on Wall Street.  As today’s expert said, “If people start feeling again like it’s not safe to eat out or go shopping, that could have a really negative impact on the stock market.”  Unfortunately, that’s almost certainly what’s going to happen. 

Wall Street ends choppy session higher as strength in banks offsets virus woes

There wasn’t much good news today as virus cases continue to grow in record numbers not seen since the height of the pandemic back in March and got so bad in Texas that Governor Abbott has now halted the state’s reopening program. (Closing the barn door after the cows have escaped?) The huge surge in Florida prompted Apple to close 14 more stores there.  Yet despite all this the Dow soared nearly 300 points in the last hour or so of trading which was explained by today’s expert as investors buying on yesterday’s dip and “understanding that things are going to have a brighter ending at some point.”  The Fed’s annual bank stress tests were released after close and, as they are expected to be positive, there may be another rally tomorrow.  Volume was a little below recent averages at just under 11.4 billion. 

Wall Street finishes lower on rising virus cases, weak economic view

Today the market finally woke up to the reality that all the early lifting of restrictions and all the defiance of social distancing is going to bring dire consequences as all three indexes dove on news of the second largest rise in infections since the beginning of the pandemic, the Dow down 710 points.  Bad data too with the IMF revising its 2020 contraction of U.S. output from 6% to 8% and the VIX rising to 33.8 points.  The S&P and Dow are now 10 and 14% below their records.  Volume was right in line with recent averages at 13.3 billion. 

Wall Street ends higher on recovery hopes, Nasdaq hits another record

With the slowdown in manufacturing being less severe and new home sales jumping way beyond expectations, investors were encouraged about our V-shaped rally continuing and boosted the Dow another 131 points.  And the government, particularly Mnuchin, talking more stimulus helped matters too, in fact pushing the S&P now to just 7.5% below its February record high.  At just under 12.1 billion, volume was close to recent averages. 

Wall Street ends higher with boost from technology stocks

A 3-digit boost to the Dow today on strong performances from Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon despite a dozen states now reporting new spikes in COVID infections and the WHO reporting a record rise globally.  There has been rotation out of virus-sensitive sectors and into the more resilient sectors of tech. Volume was a little lower than recent averages at 10.6 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 6.19.20 (plus Levine: The Stock Market is a Fun Casino)

The usual weekly summation is below, the good news being that the VIX falling below 40 indicates that the economy appears to be stabilizing, the bad news being the very irresponsible way that many of the states are reopening and that jobless claims continue to be above forecasts.  The bonus this Sunday evening is a very entertaining article posted on Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture web site this weekend that is also a very good review of how the stock market works.  Most of you probably already know all this but it is nonetheless a really fun read.  Hope everyone is still healthy and let's keep it that way for another week. 

How Robinhood Convinced Millennials to Trade Their Way Through a Pandemic

For your weekend reading pleasure I submit this recent article from Medium about the infamous no-fee Robinhood fund that had a rocky start at the beginning of the pandemic but has since become a market leader among the country's most important consumer demographic -- the millennials.  And for those of you unfamiliar with Robinhood's influence on "democratizing" Wall Street, here is an excellent 15 minute primer.  Happy Father's Day -- if it doesn't storm. 

S&P 500 closes lower as COVID-19 resurgence casts a shadow on sentiment

It was another day that encouraging economic data regarding stimulus and consumer spending was not enough to overcome pandemic worries as news emerged of new infection records in at least six states.  That combined with Apple closing stores in some of the hardest hit states (as they said, Apple is now considered “the canary in the coalmine”) sent the Dow down 208 points.  Ordinarily volume is light on summer Fridays but today it was exaggerated by quadruple witching sending it soaring to 15.8 billion, a number that cannot be trusted so we’ll have to wait until Monday to see what the real picture is.  The good news is that all three indexes posted gains for the week. The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq are now just 8.5, 12.5, 1.3% below their all-time record highs. 

S&P 500 closes nominally higher amid COVID-19 spikes, muted data

The Dow spent almost the entire day in the red, down almost 200 points as late as 3 pm, but then rebounding to close down just 39.  Once  again it was the combo of a spike in infections and lukewarm economic data that has put investors in a wait-and-see mode prompting more selling than buying.  The good news is that the consensus remains that we are on the road to recovery but, even today with a slight decrease in jobless claims, the total claim rate remains huge at 20.5 million suggesting that the road is going to be a long one. Volume was below recent averages at just under 10.2 billion. 

S&P closes lower as new COVID-19 cases surge

Yesterday the economic news overpowered the pandemic news and the Dow shot up 526 points.  Today it was the opposite, even though the day started in the black with investors still on the wave of optimism from the new drug coming out of the UK, but then quickly went south again on news of a sharp rise in cases in six states.  The market has become a balancing act between health concerns and economic optimism.  As today’s expert put it, “There’s a tug of war with headlines.”  The economic news today wasn’t bad – building permits on a robust rebound and mortgage applications surging to nearly a 12 year high.  Still the Dow closed 170 in the red on volume of 10.4 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher on signs of economic recovery

A terrific retail sales report showing a record 17.7% jump in May (double the forecast of 8%) in turn boosted the Dow a big 526 points.  Adding to the good news was  a Trump proposal to jumpstart the economy with another trillion dollar infrastructure package and news from the UK of a very promising COVID-19 drug that is believed to dramatically reduce death rates.  But amid the new spikes in China and the U.S., Fed Chair Powell cautions us, “Until the public is confident that the disease is contained, a full recovery is unlikely.”  Volume remains in line with recent averages at just under 12.9 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher as Fed soothes recovery worries

Today’s session started almost 800 points down on continuing fears of spiking COVID-19 but then gradually built, zooming in the afternoon session after the Fed announced new stimulus policies that the market very much liked.  In the end the Dow closed 157 up or a gain of nearly a thousand points off the morning low.  The bad news is that 22 of our 50 states are showing spikes from too early reopening, as well as China surging in new cases.  The good news is that positive manufacturing reports are showing evidence that the global economy is on the path to recovery.  At 12.3 billion, volume was in line with recent averages. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 6.12.20 (plus How is My State Doing on Key Measures?)

Below is the usual weekly summation, the big positive being the Fed's commitment to low rates and jobless claims falling, the big negative being the big spikes in COVID-19 infections in the many states that re-opened too early.  On this same topic, the bonus this Sunday eve is a nice little one-eye shot graphic illustrating the progress being made in all 50 states on the pandemic recovery.  Hope everyone enjoyed this beautiful weekend. 

Investing Like a Stock Superstar

Once again, for your weekend viewing, and for those of you who were unable to watch the live virtual AAII webinar on Wednesday, I submit below the YouTube link to the event, presented by none other than AAII superstar Wayne Thorp. Enjoy the video and continue enjoying this nice crisp cool weekend. 

Wall Street ends higher but indexes mark worst week since March selloff

After yesterday’s drubbing there was no place to go but up and that’s exactly what happened with the bargain hunters out in droves pushing the Dow up 477 points.  Investors will continue to digest yesterday’s Fed comments that there will be a long road to recovery along with rising COVID-19 cases.  Yet we’ve known since the beginning that a complete recovery cannot be had until there is an effective and safe vaccine and we’ve been cautioned by health authorities since the states started lifting restrictions that the easing was coming too soon.  So these comments shouldn’t have shocked anyone. Today’s buying spree happened on continued volume of 13 billion. 

Wall Street plunges to close with biggest one-day loss since March 16

It was the worst day on Wall Street since the precipitous drop of March 16^th at the beginning of this crisis as investors sold, sold, sold to the tune of nearly 1900 points on the Dow, triggered by bleak comments from the Fed that there will be a long road to recovery. This was further exacerbated by jobless claims reaching an astounding 20.9 million and the forecast of 200,000 deaths by September.  But here’s the problem – we already knew about all this stuff.  So has Wall Street just been in a state of denial until today?  Or is today just another one of those “panic days” that will be quickly corrected at the next hint of encouraging news? Volume remains huge at 15.3 billion. 

S&P 500, Dow finish lower in volatile trade on dour Fed forecasts

The Fed’s June meeting ended today with comments that the market did not take comfort in: forecasts for both a decline in GDP and increase in unemployment for the remainder of 2020.  Investors came away with the message that things will improve but slowly and that triggered a further selloff sending the Dow down another 282 points.  The Fed has also continued its pledge to keep monetary policy loose for as long as is needed and other good news included a COVID-19 treatment from Eli Lilly that could be available as soon as September.  Volume remains vigorous at 14.1 billion. 

S&P 500, Dow ease as focus shifts to Fed; tech pushes Nasdaq to closing record

After the amazing rally last week, today was the day for profit taking (or perhaps the market finally realized that the Labor Dept revised the unemployment numbers on Saturday, though there’s still no acknowledgment of that) that took the Dow down 300 points.  Still, the Nasdaq scored another all-time high for the second straight day.  Tomorrow the Fed wraps up its June meeting and investors will anxiously await its take on the health of the economy.  Volume remains brisk at 13.8 billion. 

Nasdaq ends at record, confirms bull market on economic recovery hopes

I had a cautionary note last night that, due to the revised labor report that came out on Saturday showing that the unemployment rate was not 13.3% but rather 16.6%, I expected there might be a big sell off today. Instead, the market is either completely ignoring this report or just didn’t see it as I have found not the slightest acknowledgment of it in today’s financial media.  Rather the markets seemed to still be riding high on Friday’s wave of optimism and the Dow just continued climbing all day to close up another whopping 461 points.  The Nasdaq reached a new all-time high and the S&P and Dow are just 4.5% and 6.7% below their records today.  The views seem to be that Friday’s data shows the worst of the economic damage is over and that the economy is heading for a V-shaped recovery, not the double W that has long been predicted.  Now everyone’s looking towards the June Fed meeting that begins tomorrow.  Volume was again huge at nearly 16.5 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 6.5.20 (plus How the World Now Sees Us)

Below is the weekly summation, the big positives being that the indexes had a remarkably good week and that unemployment came in much lower than expected (though on Saturday, the government is already reporting that they got it wrong and that, instead of the number being 13.3%, it's probably closer to 16.6%. It happens so often that they revise reports; why don't they just wait a day or two to make sure they've got accurate numbers? But in light of the revisions, expect a sell off tomorrow.)

Nobody Knows Anything

Since the beginnings of this crisis there have been a great many predictions made about what the future holds; and so many have proven to be completely wrong. There were all the proclamations back in February that COVID-19 would be very benign and that, if there was a lockdown, it would last a maximum of two weeks.  Then once the crisis got underway and the full extent of its horrors became more evident, there were all the doomsayers who predicted the perils to the economy would make the Great Depression look like chicken feed. 

Wall Street rallies to end higher on surprise U.S. jobs report

I mentioned yesterday that if the very bleak unemployment forecast turned out to be overstated, that there would be another rally today. And was there ever!  The Dow shot straight up and stayed there the entire day closing up a whopping 829 points. Fearing a jobless rate of 19.7%, which would have been the highest in history, the actual came in at just 13.3% which meant that not only was there no further job loss in May but actually a gain of 2.5 million.  This was met with elation as a very strong sign that the economy was heading for a much quicker recovery that previously thought and that the pandemic’s impact on the economy would be temporary.  The WHO still warns that COVID-19 is far from over and new cases are on the rise. Novovax was awarded $60 million from the government to manufacture its vaccine. The elation created an incredible volume of 17.5 billion. 

S&P 500 closes down, snapping four-day rally

I’ve been wondering about this week’s rallies in view of the fact that Friday’s labor report is expected to be horrendous.  (Of course that just means that if the unemployment rate is not as terrible as they’re expecting, there’ll be yet another rally.)  So today became the day that investors took a step back as a precautionary measure against bad news tomorrow.  The Dow spent much of the day in the red, down more than 100 points at times but finally rallying at close to squeak out a very modest 11 point gain, making it the only index to end in the black.  Some call it profit-taking but this has happened many times before when bad news is expected so it’s more accurate to call it simple caution.  The airline index got a big boost today along with EBay and Charles Schwab, which is buying TD Ameritrade.  The cautionary sell off was brisk.  Volume was way above recent averages at nearly 14.5 billion. 

Wall Street closes sharply higher on signs of economic rebound

There was yet another big rally today on hopes for a quicker than expected economic recovery with as today’s expert put it, “growing confidence the U.S. economy can safely reopen.”  Today’s rally was triggered when the private sector employment report showed fewer job cuts in May than expected.  However, the real data comes with the Labor Dept’s jobs report on Friday which is expected to show an historic 19.7% unemployment rate so I’m not sure why everyone is rallying prematurely. But it is what it is.  The good news is that the Nasdaq, S&P and Dow are today just 1.4, 7.8, and 11.1% from their all time February highs.  This compares to yesterday’s 2, 9, and 13 percent, quite a shift in just one day.  Today volume shifted to being just a little bit above recent averages at 12.6 billion. 

Wall Street closes up on signs of economic rebound

The Dow was about a hundred points up most of the day and then zoomed up 267 in the final half hour as investors decided that the protests and pandemic worries were not going to hinder the economic recovery.  Still, all eyes are on Friday when the jobs report comes out and is expected to show a 19.7% unemployment rate, the highest in history.  The good news is that the indexes continue their recoveries and the Nasdaq, S&P and Dow are now just 2, 9, and 13% below their February record highs.  Volume was again a tad below recent averages at 10.7 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher as recovery signs soothe protest, pandemic worries

The market had modest gains today as the forces of economic recovery duked it out with the increasing social unrest, the pandemic and China.  The fact that it ended in the black at all is a testament to how resilient it is and as today’s expert put it, “Most investors are saying the protests aren’t going to destroy the economy.”  One thing’s for sure: the sudden massive social unrest has for five days now knocked COVID-19 right off the front page and, two weeks ago, no one would have thought anything could do that.  But we must brace for Friday when the May employment report comes out and is expected to show a whopping 19.7% unemployment rate.  Two bits of good news:  contraction of factory activity is slowing and two more pharma companies have treatments that show promise.  At 9.9 billion, volume was a bit below recent averages.