Offline until further notice

My laptop crashed tonight and this desktop that I've switched doesn't work very well at all so I won't be publishing any new posts until my laptop is out of the shop.  Hopefully I'll be able to get it into the shop tomorrow.  Thank you for patience and have a great week.  

4 Growth Stocks, 4 Value Stocks to Buy

With the tug of war between growth and value that's been going on in the market for quite some time now, this week's edition of U.S. News Invested seems particularly timely. One day growth is up and value down, the next day it's the reverse.  Perhaps the best strategy is to have both but even if you believe that the real profits are in one vs the other, the following list provides what their editors consider the best picks in both.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Wall Street rallies, capping frenetic week with best day of the year

Finally on the fifth day the pattern has been broken and even reversed itself.  Instead of going through the roof early in the day and then collapsing later, instead today the Dow sank 300 points right out the gate and then started climbing dramatically over 800 points to close up 564 and the S&P up a very impressive 105 points.  Even the Nasdaq got a huge boost today as bargain hunters were snatching up the tech stocks again. The Nasdaq remains in correction territory but both the Dow and S&P have recovered losses to now just 4.4 and 7 percent drops from their highs. 

S&P 500 ends lower after another wild ride

OMG it’s happened again, now the fourth day in a row that the markets got started with a bang only to come crashing down in mid-session. It’s the fourth day in a row that we thought we might be pulling out of this correction only to have our hopes dashed in the eleventh hour.  This is getting annoying. Today the Dow was up some 500 points.  Then it was right around noon, likely because that was when Intel submitted a very dismal Q4 report which then had a massive ripple effect on the entire tech sector. 

Wall Street gains evaporate, S&P 500 ends lower on Fed tightening timeline

It happened again today, the third day in a row that the indexes were way up throughout the day and then came crashing down at 2 pm to undo all the gains and throw everyone into the red again. And all it took was a single comment, whether deliberate or unintentionally casual, when Fed Chair Powell failed to give a direct answer to a reporter asking whether rate hikes could be coming every month this year?  As today’s expert said, it “indicates a flexibility to raise rates much more quickly than anyone was expecting.”  

Wall Street ends down as markets whipsaw ahead of Fed meeting

Today was just like yesterday except instead of closing a little in the black, the Dow closed a little in the red. And the Nasdaq and S&P tech heavy sectors again closed rather heavily in the red. All this volatility is coming from the fears of Wednesday’s report of today’s Fed meeting. But it was a direct reflection of Monday with the Dow down over a thousand points in the morning and then rebounding the entire thing by late afternoon plus a couple hundred points to spare, only today it reversed again in the final hour.  

Wall Street reverses, ends higher in late session rally

On Friday I suggested that today might be a really good time to start buying the dip since experts had concluded all the panic selling last week was based on irrational emotion. I was half-right in that the major rout continued this morning with the Dow dipping over a thousand points by noon, but then there was a huge rebound for the rest of the afternoon in which not only were all losses recouped but all the indexes actually managed to close in the black. Anybody buying the dip at noon made out quite well today.  

2021's 8 Best-Performing Fidelity Funds for Retirement

To finish out the weekend, I offer still another list of great tips from U.S. News Invested, this time all the best Fidelity Funds for retirement.  Clicking on the link "Click Here To Read More" will generate a lot more detail.  Hope everyone had a great weekend. Hopefully we have just one more week of the arctic deepfreeze to get through.  

AAII Stock Ideas: Upward Earnings Estimate Revisions Screening Strategy

This past week was the kickoff of Q4 and needless to say there were some major surprises that triggered six consecutive days of triple-digit losses.  With that in mind, the AAII published a very insightful article this week about how to turn earnings estimate revisions to one's favor. If ever this this type of strategy will be useful, it is now.  Enjoy the rest of the weekend.  

S&P 500, Nasdaq post worst weeks since pandemic start as Netflix woes deepen slide

It would be easy enough to say that today’s rout, the sixth consecutive 3-digit drop in the Dow and Nasdaq, was predictable given that it was allegedly triggered by a bad report from Netflix which sent the Nasdaq and the rest of the indexes plunging. After all, we knew about Netflix. The report came in after the bell yesterday. And the Netflix misfortune also infected other streaming services like Disney and Roku in a big way. The only problem with this explanation is that the market was up, way up, until about 11 a.m.  Any reaction due to Netflix would have come at the opening bell.  So what else is there?  Well, as today’s expert put it, “Emotion is what takes over. Until the market finds support, no one’s going to care about anything fundamental.”  

Wall Street drops as bargain-hunting loses steam

The day was going great until about 2 p.m. All the indexes were way up, the Dow up nearly 500 points at midday. Then once again everything came crashing down for a fifth straight day of triple-digit losses and this time the only explanation that seems to be out there is that investors concluded around 2 p.m. that “buying the dip” had been exhausted so started vigorously selling again. But is this what really happened?  One thing is agreed upon as stated by today’s expert, “We’re in for kind of a rocky period here for the month of January. Valuations are high, rates are going up, the outlook is murky – there’s more to worry about now.”  Another nail in the coffin was new unemployment claims rising last week, attributed to COVID-19 disrupting business.  Volume was considerably above average at nearly 12 billion. 

Wall Street sell-off deepens, Nasdaq confirms correction

The day got started on a very good foot.  In fact, the Dow was up nearly 200 points in the morning session, and the other two were up as well.  Then at 1 pm everthing came crashing down and without any good explanation as to what inciting incident happened at 1 pm except for just continuing anxiety over inflation and the rapid rise in Treasury yields.  Yesterday the panic was blamed on a poor report from Goldman Sachs but no such luck this time with both Morgan Stanley and BofA turning in stellar reports, but still panic ensued.  At the end of the day, the Nasdaq was officially in correction territory having lost 10.7% from the November high.  The last correction was last February so today marked the beginning of the fourth correction since the pandemic began.  Volume was above average at 11.4 billion.  

Wall St sinks as yields spike, financials fall after Goldman miss

When Goldman Sachs turned in a less than glowing Q4 report on Tuesday, it triggered an avalanche of panic selling related to the perfect storm of coming Fed rate hikes deflating tech, inflation spikes  ballooning Treasury yields to a 2 year high, and a fall in the big megastocks including Microsoft, Apple and Facebook.  Now more than ever investors will be focused on next week’s Fed meeting for more clarity on inflation.  Meanwhile today’s volume shot up to nearly 12 billion. 

Even NASA Seems Surprised by Its New Space Telescope

For this holiday I thought I'd offer an article that has nothing to do with investing but a lot to do with general knowledge and fun  -- the latest and greatest from NASA's James Webb space super-telescope via The Atlantic.  This revolutionary piece of technology was originally said to be so advanced that, for the first time, scientists would be able to actually observe the Big Bang, that is the creation of the universe. Now they're saying that the big spyglass is in fact exceeding expectations. A fun read, and not too long at 1200 words.  Hope everyone enjoyed the holiday.  

7 High-Risk Stocks For Aggressive Investors

Yesterday I presented a list of high quality stocks that couldn't lose for the beginning investor.  Today is a higher level course from this week's U.S. News Invested for the more sophisticated advanced investor, high quality but volatile stocks for the more aggressive more profitable portfolio.  Enjoy what's left of the holiday weekend. 

9 of the Best Stocks for a Starter Portfolio

To start off the MLK weekend I once again submit the latest picks from U.S. News Invested of 9 of the the safest and most profitable bets for newbie investors to buy for a starter portfolio.  And the names named herein are certainly solid enough to be a good fit for any portfolio.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Dow closes lower after disappointing bank results

With Q4 beginning with less than stellar results from the first four of the big banks, taking profits became the sentiment of the day with the Dow plunging 201 points and the entire banking sector down 1.7 percent. Of course, as today’s expert put it in perspective, “The bar was very high going into results. On the surface it was good but under the hood, not so much.” Retail sales were also disappointing dropping almost 2% in December due to shortages (which appears contradictory given all the prior reports of robust holiday sales) and consumer sentiment dropped to its second lowest level in a decade triggering new doubts about the economic outlook not only for Q1 but for all of 2022.  Tech is all that benefitted today and that was all from bargain hunting considering the bath it took yesterday. Despite the bad news, the S&P Q4 forecast has now risen to 23.1% from yesterday’s 22.4%.  Contrariness abounds. Volume was a tad above average at 10.7 billion. 

Wall St closes down, Fed speakers put rate hikes in focus

It was a day of taking profits and the continued flight from tech to value as today Wells Fargo joined the fraternity of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank in forecasting that the Fed will hike rates not three but four times this year. With more hikes in the crystal ball, and the first coming as soon as March, tech stocks took a big hit as they are the most rate sensitive. Also stoking sentiment was today’s near and rare unanimity that now appears to exist amongst the Fed officials. Good news included a Q4 earnings forecast of 22.4% and a Producers Price Index annual growth of 9.7% vs a 9.8% forecast, or a 0.2% increase in December vs a 0.8% increased in November. Volume was in line with recent averages at 10.4 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher as inflation data supports Fed bets

The CPI surged 7% in the last 12 months, the most in four decades, and though this is a terrible number it was still quite in line with the forecast and thus not a surprise.  This was taken as a very big positive meaning the Fed will likely not be more aggressive than they’ve already stated and so all the indexes rose. Bond market yields also coming down signaled a slightly more risk-on environment so, once again, what ordinarily would be bad news became good news in this very unusual market. Q4 kicks off on Friday with three major banks due to report. Volume was just a tad below average at 10.2 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher after Powell testimony eases investors' concerns

The market continued to digest rate hike info with a continuing selloff which saw all the indexes drop in the morning, the Dow off some 400 points, and then Powell came out before the Congress and very much softened the Fed position calling the rate hikes and stimulus trimming a “second brake” on the economy, and this language alone was enough to ease anxieties and start another big buying of the dip, wiping out all the early losses and shooting the three indexes way into the black. CPI data is due on Wednesday which will paint a more vivid picture of the inflation issue and in which the forecast is a 5.4% increase.  Then on Friday, Q4 reporting starts which is likely to trigger a good deal more volatility.  Volume was right in line with the 4-week average at just under 10.6 billion. 

Nasdaq ekes out gain in late session comeback

Continuing to fret over inflation, concerns exacerbated today by Goldman Sachs predicting that there would be four rate hikes this year instead of the expected three, all the indexes took a dive, the Dow by nearly 400 points, before investors decided to start buying the dip.  Especially in tech, names that have seen drawdowns of 10% or more, as today’s expert put it, “people are looking at that and going that looks pretty good – time to snap them up.”  And snap them up they did taking the  Nasdaq and S&P from rather serious deficit positions to near break-even for the day, and the Dow to close down 162.  Volume was above average at 12.1 billion. 

COVID Deaths Per Million (July 2020-Present)

To close out the weekend I submit below this very instructive animated graphic showing the entire history of COVID deaths in the U.S. since July 2020 and by political afflilation.  I don't know how Florida and Arizona qualify as "slightly" Republican so I'm not sure that these identifiers can be trusted.  However, it should make everyone feel better that Michigan, despite being a national hotspot at least twice during the last two years, has always been near the bottom of the list in terms of deaths.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

Analysts' 9 Top Stock Picks for Q1

For this first market weekend of 2022 I thought I'd share this week's edition of U.S. News Invested in which their analysts select the nine best companies to buy during Q1. As always, they're all solid picks.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Wall St posts declines for first week of 2022; Nasdaq has worst week since Feb

For the second month, the payroll report on Wednesday showed very positive numbers while Friday’s Labor Department report showed very negative numbers on jobs. This discrepancy might explain why the markets always wait for the latter before counting their chickens and today’s reaction was to nervously sell off again continuing the migration out of tech and into value.  Investors continue to nervously weigh the coming rate hikes, which they now consider to be too much after heralding them earlier, with continued worries over Omicron and what the Fed has now labeled as a “very tight” labor market.  Volume was right in line with recent averages at 10.2 billion. 

S&P 500 ends jumpy session nearly flat, a day after sell-off

As the commentary goes below, this week has seen a rotation out of tech and into value.  That certainly wasn’t true today as tech was barely touched but the value stocks represented by the Dow took a good hit.  This was despite the fact that many value stocks, particularly in the financial and energy sectors, did well in the S&P.  Other bad news included increasing unemployment claims and more slowing in the services sector.  The jobs report coming Friday should provide more clarity.  Volume remains above average at 11.1 billion. 

Nasdaq posts biggest daily drop since Feb after 'hawkish' Fed minutes

The indexes were all in the black and with the Dow and S&P at still new records until about 2 pm.  I’m guessing it was at 2 p.m. that the Fed December minutes were published stating the intent for 3 rate hikes in 2022.  Though this was widely expected and even hailed as a positive step towards taming inflation, investors suddenly thought of it as too hawkish and now considered the flip side – higher rates means higher borrowing costs and lower valuations.  Thus all three indexes went into a big dive, even the Dow, and the biggest daily drop in the Nasdaq since February.  This was all despite the plus side of payrolls increasing by more than 800,000 which was more than double the forecast. That alone should have caused a big rally but the trends have always been that the market puts a lot more stock in the Labor Department’s report which is due Friday.  The big sell off was on considerably higher than usual volume at just under 12.2 billion. 

Dow posts closing record high for 2nd day, boosted by banks

The rally continues but today investors showed their continued confidence in the recovery by migrating out of growth and back to value, shooting up the Dow but down the Nasdaq.  It also helped that the WHO cited more evidence that Omicron is milder than the other variants have been.  But awaiting Wednesday’s minutes from the December Fed meeting and the expected rate hikes coming this year (and the devaluation that may cause for tech), the markets are “going to punish growth stocks with high valuations.  Defensive stocks and value stocks are likely to outperform.”  December manufacturing data showed some cooling but this was more than balanced by signs of an easing supply chain.  Volume came in at 11.6 billion. 

S&P 500, Dow hit record highs on 1st trading day of 2022

The New Year has started with a bang with all the indexes way up and the Dow and S&P at new records as the market continues to ride the Omicron wave with the consensus that it will not be economically debilitating. Also boosting sentiment is the history that January is almost always one of the biggest months of the year and that we have now come through the biggest three year advance since 1999.  The index report card for 2021 looks like this – Dow +18.7%, Nasdaq +21.4%, S&P +27%.  For the first trading day of the year, volume was close to the 4-week average at 10.0 billion. 

2022 New Year's resolutions for individual investors. -- AAII

I thought it might be fun for this final night of the holiday to share this AAII December 30th article regarding New Year's resolutions that individual investors should be making.  Hope everyone had a great holiday. The next one isn't until Easter.  By then it'll be warmer. 

U.S. News Invested -- Some Of Our Best Articles of 2021

Happy New Year!  And what better way to bring in the new year than be revisiting some of the best articles in U.S. News Invested from 2021.  Enjoy!