50 Most Important Life-Saving Advancements

I thought  Barry Ritholtz's column this morning fit the spirit of this holiday weekend quite nicely with its informative graphic about all the most important scientific advances that have taken place in medical history that have advanced both life-saving and life expectancy.  Of course my doctor has always credited the discovery of sterilization (which in turn lead to common sense hygiene) as the single most important advance in medical history.  Of course, life-saving is sort of the very most basic prerequisite for success in investing (or anything else for that matter) in case you're looking for a tie-in here.  Happy Easter or Passover, whatever your inclination happens to be.

U.S. stocks jump in upbeat end to tumultuous quarter

I guess in prepping for Easter I forgot to publish on Thursday night but since the markets are closed for Good Friday, this delay really isn’t.  For the week’s end, we were back in the money with the Dow shooting up 254 points as investors took the view that the recent losses represented a buying opportunity and that the fears that triggered these losses, as today’s expert opines, “now look overblown.”  The S&P is up 1.4 percent and the tech giants all gaining.  Even the good news of jobless claims at a 45 year low and consumer spending up 1.6 percent did not spook anyone over inflation fears.  A good end to a bad week; a good end to a bad month … and bad quarter!  Volume was a little above average at 7.5 billion. 

Wall Street closes lower in rocky session on Amazon losses

Speak of a wild ride, today the Dow swung back and forth all day in a 370 point range like a schizophrenic only to finally settle nearly even.  With Trump calling for regulation against Amazon, that bellwether took a $53 billion dollar bath in one day but was offset by gains in the traditional defensive stocks everyone flees to in times of trouble.  A few days ago, crude was up because of a “surprise” decline in inventories; today it lost again because of a “surprise” build.  This happens so often.  I’ve said before and I’ll say it again -- how hard is it to count barrels?  Other good news included a big jump in 2017 GDP expansion from the previously reported 2.5 percent to today’s 2.9 percent.  Of course, strong data like this has the flip side that it might make the Fed more hawkish.  All in all, the swings were a balancing act that had the market ending even on fairly solid volume of nearly 7 billion. 

Wall Street closes sharply lower, tech leads late selloff

Yesterday I posed the question whether the 669 point gain would last or was just profit-taking. Today we got the answer. It may not have been solely about profit-taking but, once again as usually happens, any bad news at all sends everyone to the exits as the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs and Facebook took center stage again.  The Dow lost almost exactly half of Monday’s 669 point gain and nerves are freshly frayed over the FB data debacle and whether it will lead to increased regulation.  FB lost another 5 percent today making its losses for month so far down 15 percent.  With today’s losses, the S&P is now down over 9 percent again from the January high.  All of tech is down over 5 percent for the month, making it the worst month in two years.  Most of the major players were down between 5 and 12 percent for the day.  Volume was vigorous at over 7.5 billion shares traded. 

Wall Street roars back as trade war fears fade

With all the anxiety this past week about an impending trade war with China, today it took only the slightest hint on that issue that talks may be afoot and a trade war may be avoided to shoot the market up, way up!  The Dow bolted 669 points and the other indexes had similar percentage gains, making it the biggest day since August 2015.  Will it last … or is this just momentary profit-taking?  Stay tuned.  Volume was right in line with the 4-week average at 7.3 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 3.23.18 (plus an analysis of trade wars)

In addition to the usual weekly summation presented below, since this week's tariff news (which subsequently dropped the Dow over 1,100 points in 2 days) and the fears of an imminent trade war has been dominating the headlines this week, your bonus this Sunday is a column about trade wars from the March 23rd issue of Heritage Capital Research.  Are they really easy to win?  Will this one be?  The conclusions may be unexpected.

How AI and Data Analytics Are Transforming Healthcare Right Now | Fortune

At least we can all be thankful it's the weekend.  No bad market news for today.  But at least Barry Ritholtz contributed a nice Saturday reading list, which I share below, and specifically a lengthy but informative article from this week's Fortune magazine which forecasts what might be the next great investment frontier.  Spring break is here for some of us; enjoy! 

Wall Street nosedives as investors flee on trade war fears

Another major bath today to the tune of 424 points on the Dow as the market becomes increasingly worried about a trade war with China since today China declared retaliation on Trump’s tariffs.  The two-day loss now stands at over 1,100 points.  In fact, the S&P came within ½ of 1% of crossing the 200-day moving average, also just barely brushing correction territory being today 9.9% lower than the January 26^th high.  The Dow is now down over 5.5% for the week and 11.6% from the January 26^th high so, for one day at least, that major index is back in correction territory.  The financial sector was again the big loser with a one-day 3% loss due to whipsawing Treasury yields and the VIX is up just over another 1.5 points, the highest since February 13^th.  All the big Nasdaq momentum stocks also got hit, all on very high volume of 8.1 billion shares.  Somebody’s gotta blink.  Who’s it gonna be ? 

Stocks tumble to worst day in six weeks after Trump tariff action

Ever since the word “tariff” was mentioned what now seems like an eternity ago, the market has been in denial, hoping that it was all just a bluff to negotiate for better deals.  Today Trump signed the official memorandum and Wall Street reacted with a resounding NO by dropping a huge 724 points as it now appears a trade war with China is imminent.  It was the largest drop since the big one on February 8^th that precipitated the big correction.  All the major industrials most vulnerable to such a trade war plunged big – Boeing 5.2%, Caterpillar 5.7, 3M 4.7, the entire sector almost 3.3 percent.  The VIX shot up 20 percent and the yield on 10-year Treasuries went down 0.1 percent which hit financials down 3.7 percent, making financials the worst performing of the major sectors.  Facebook’s problems continue with its stock down another 2.7 percent today.  Volume was strong at nearly 7.8 billion.  Not a lot of good news this session. 

Stocks end modestly lower after Fed hikes rates; energy up

As everyone expected, the Fed did indeed bump the rates up again today with a virtual promise of two more before year-end.  The market likes the two.  It means the Fed thinks the economy is doing well.  The uncertainty is whether there will be three more, and that will scare everyone again as bond yields will go up and stocks down.  Crude had yet another bump today due to an unexpected decline in inventories, which is why the Dow only fell about 45 points as Facebook continues grappling with its data misuse scandal which has cost the social media giant 50 billion dollars so far this week.  At 6.7 billion, volume is very close behind the 4-week average of 7.1 billion. 

Wall Street advances on energy bump; Facebook woes continues

Facebook had yet another really bad day as a consequence of the scandal concerning its involvement in the unauthorized mining of users’ data for the 2016 presidential election.  Today’s shares were down 2.6 percent bringing the total decline for yesterday and today to 9 percent and nearly 14 percent since February 1st, the panic selling actually triggered less by the political scandal than by investor fears that this incident may lead to more and tougher regulation.  Again today, all the social media giants took a big hit from 2.5 percent for Snap to over 10 percent for Twitter.  Declines in crude from Venezuela boosting the S&P energy index was the one bright spot and that was enough to boost the Dow 116 points.  Tomorrow’s almost certain Fed rate hike is also seen as positive news, as today’s expert puts it, “We are finally normalizing.”  Volume was below average at just under 6.3 billion. 

Wall Street drops as regulation worry sinks tech shares

A potential very serious scandal involving the undisclosed use of Facebook data to influence the 2016 election has come to light and shot FB down almost 7 percent today and almost 11 percent since February 1, making today its worst day in four years and dragging all three major indexes down with it, the Dow 335 points.  The scandal infected other tech companies too including Apple down 1.5%, Alphabet 3, Microsoft almost 2.  And there’s more caution coming as the March Fed meeting starts tomorrow with another rate hike announcement expected Wednesday.  Volume remained vigorous at 6.9 billion, not too far removed from the 4-week average of 7.2 billion. 

Succinct Summations of the Week’s Events 3.16.18 (plus A Wrinkle In Time)

This week's summation has jobless claims down and industrial production up while retails sales slip a bit and the Producer Price Index rises.  For this Sunday's entertainment, Barry Ritholtz posted on his Big Picture blog today a delightful little vignette from the new hit movie "A Wrinkle In Time."  Enjoy, and continue enjoying this (finally!) dry and sunny weather, though it's still winter until the lows are above freezing.  Maybe another week.

10 Weekend Reads

Happy St. Paddy's Day everyone!  That's all I have for you tonight except that tonight's posting from The Big Picture contains a number of very interesting articles including the inside story of Uber infighting and the real story behind why the ultra rich become ultra philanthropists.  Still celebrating with the Irish as I write this so see y'all tomorrow night with the week's summation. 

Wall Street advances on strong industrial data but posts weekly losses

It took a second day of strong economic news PLUS no new news from Washington to finally get the market to focus on progress and, for one day at least, put political concerns on the backburner.  The result was a 72 point boost to the Dow on very high volume of 9.5 billion, but that number is fictitious since it is the result of the traditional monthly “quadruple-witching” where there is a plethora of expiring futures and options contracts being bought and sold at the same time thereby greatly exaggerating the transaction count.  But today was a good day.  Not only was industrial production up the most in four months, but companies like Walmart, Adobe, Micron, and Western Digital saw big gains, the latter a 3-year high and Adobe an all-time high.  But we’ll have to wait until Monday to see the real reaction to today’s good reports.  And who knows what will happen over the weekend? 

S&P falls for fourth day as Mueller subpoena weighs

‘Twas another wild day with the Dow up a good 300 points midday only to lose more than half before close due to continuing uncertainty from the Trump WH.  Today it was a Mueller subpoena for documents relating to Trump’s businesses that offset an otherwise very positive day full of strong jobs and manufacturing reports.  Investors are swinging back and forth trying to figure out the impact of these tariffs, and the Tillerson firing has only added to the turmoil (plus the rumors of considerably more firings in the near future). At least volume has remained fairly steady, today at 6.6 billion, not far from the 4-week average of 7.1 billion. 

Wall Street falls amid fears of trade war with China

For the third consecutive session the Dow has seen triple-digit losses, wiping out much of last week’s gains, today to the tune of 248  points.  And, as before, jitters over the new tariffs and fears of a trade war, particularly with China, has triggered the continuing sell off.  Also weighing was a fall in retail sales for the third month.  But at 6.5 billion shares traded, volume was a little lighter than average which would indicate that investors are still in wait-and-see mode.  So … we’ll wait and see. 

Wall Street slides on Tillerson exit, tariff worries

Change makes investors nervous so the Dow took a 171 point dive today upon the announcement of the firing of Rex Tillerson.  More uncertainty was presented by way of Politico’s analysis of tariffs hitting $30 billion dollars worth of Chinese imports coming soon and the ramifications thereof.  At 6.9 billion shares traded, volume remains in line with the 4-week average of 7.1 billion.  

Dow, S&P weighed down by tariffs while tech boosts Nasdaq

On Friday, the labor report put the market at ease and made everyone decide that the tariff issue was not a big deal after all.  Today, having taking the weekend to mull it over some more, investors have taken on a renewed concern about the potential deleterious effects the tariffs may have on American companies.  In particular, Boeing and Caterpillar took a dive as two companies seen as most vulnerable to these new policies.  But really, as affirmed by today’s expert, any big multinational firm is now at risk, the Dow taking a 157 point hit on fairly average volume of 6.5 billion shares. 

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events for 3.9.18 (plus history of DST)

It's weekly summation time with all three major indexes up more than 3 percent this week, regaining much of the ground lost in the February correction.  The labor participation rate was also up 0.3% more than forecast which the market reacted to with great exuberance.  And though it's in the "negative" column that wages rose only a tepid 0.1 percent, that news actually made the market rise as it was interpreted as a sign that inflation was under control.  This Sunday's bonus is a fascinating article from Smithsonian Magazine about the checkered history of Daylight Savings Time, especially appropriate on this particular Sunday when we had to do the traditional spring forward.  A second  bonus is a very easy to read and informative graph which shows us exactly where we should be putting our money right now.  Hope everyone enjoyed this sunny weekend.  Warmer temps will be here by next weekend. 

Taking the Night Off For DST

As we all prepare to spring forward, I'm taking the night off for DST.  See you tomorrow night with the weekly summation. 

Wall Street climbs on bull market's birthday as inflation fears ebb

A lot went right today.  In addition to the easing fears of trade wars and the hint of a thaw in tensions with North Korea, the February jobs report came in much higher than expected and that coupled with a wage report showing only a very modest increase after last month’s whopper increase eased market fears of potential runaway inflation.  Thus the Dow soared, really soared a big 440 points, as did both other major indexes.  This is also the 9^th anniversary of this bull market, the second longest on record, though it’s been pointed out a number of times in this space that there’s been much expert opinion that we’ve had a number of corrections in 9 years so it’s not really nearly as long as everyone supposes.  The Dow is now about 5 percent below the January high which is about halfway back from last month’s low.  The S&P has fared even better, now only 3 percent below the high, 10 percent above February’s low.  Volume was 6.8 billion. 

Wall Street rises as Trump softens tariff plan

The market continues to suffer from tariff-itis though the tamped down rhetoric from the White House has investors a little more at ease today.  The Dow still swung back and forth in a 250 point range, but the upside ended at a +93.  However, the bottom line remains, as today’s expert points out, “He [Trump] dialed it back a little bit, but they’re still tariffs, and we’re still going in the wrong direction …”  Reflecting all the uncertainty is the below average volume of 6.3 billion shares traded as the market sits on the fence waiting to see how this is really going to play out.  Nobody quite believes that things are as they appear.  

S&P ends down slightly as U.S. talks tariff exemptions

Another wild day with the Dow bouncing back and forth in a 300 point range as investors continue to try to make sense of the tariff announcement, taking some solace in today’s White House statement that the tariff will not be applied broadly though, as one expert reminded us, “We have nothing in writing.  If there’s one thing we’ve learned from this administration is that it could change by the time it’s in writing.”  After being down more than 300 points, the Dow finally settled in with an 86 point loss.  Volume was 6.7 billion. 

Wall Street gains even as trade war worries dominate

Yesterday, investor sentiment was resoundingly that the tariffs were not going to happen.  Today mixed signals from the White House created a good deal of uncertainty on the issue again and the market didn’t like it one bit, swinging back and forth all day long in a 300 point range but at least closing at a near wash.  The experts are warning everyone to prepare for a big dive in the event that the worst fears come true.  Until then the market will be grasping at straws.  Today’s good news is the possibility of talks with North Korea, but mostly it was a wild ride of speculating on bad news.  Nearly 7 billion shares were traded. 

Wall Street closes higher as trade war fears ease

Depending on who you’re listening to, Trump’s proposed tariffs will either have little impact on the economy or won’t even happen at all.  In today’s news, it was the latter scenario, some even suggesting that it’s just a political ploy to put the NAFTA squeeze on Canada and Mexico (as if they care.)  But the objective facts show the market no longer believing a trade war will happen and part of the evidence is that the countries involved have thus far taken no retaliatory action, indicating they don’t think it will happen either.  All of this along with Italy’s election has reassured investors that all is right with the world after all and boosted the Dow 336 points, as well as healthy boosts to the other two major indexes.  Oil too is up today on reports that demand is now expected to grow after years of being subdued by a global glut in crude.  Volume was healthy at 6.9 billion and happily below the elevated panic levels of the last four weeks when the average was 8.3 billion. 

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events for 3.2.18 (plus ethics investing)

Tonight was Oscar Night so I'm making this one quick.  Below is the usual weekly summation with jobless claims being their lowest in almost half a century but still a very rough week in the wake of the tariff announcements which very nearly wiped out the recovery and almost sent the market into another correction.  Because gun violence has really dominated the news as of late, this week's bonus is a very instructive article from the February 16th issue of Investment News about how investors can use market strategies to promote one's ethical values, whatever they may be.  This article applies this theory to the gun debate, but it can apply equally to any social or political issue.  Hope everyone enjoyed the wonderful weekend.  Snow is back in the forecast for Tuesday. 

10 Weekend Reads plus Private Boom

For this weekend's read, I offer Barry Ritholtz's Weekend Reads from his Big Picture blog, this one with interesting looking articles about hedge funds, a history of volatility, and algorithms -- all the good things that make the market run.  There's also a very interesting graphic showing the last 12 years of portfolio construction -- hedge funds vs private funds vs passive funds.  It should be no surprise that passive funds have grown dramatically in the past several years since that's what happens in a long running bull market.  But it should be equally obvious that when the bulls stop running, managed risk investing is the way to go.  Enjoy the wonderful March weather we're finally having after Thursday's grand debacle.

S&P 500 gains for day but posts weekly losses on trade war fears

For the last three sessions investors were acting like it’s the end of the world with all the panic selling over Trump’s tariff announcements.  Today everything switched course 180 as everyone now seems content to believe it’s not going to be that big a deal after all.  The Secretary of Commerce described the tariffs as “trivial” and suddenly the market decides there will be no trade war or any adverse effects to U.S. corporate earnings.  The Dow dipped modestly 70 points, that is modestly compared to the rest of the week, but the Nasdaq and S&P both gained.  Let’s give investors the weekend to mull this further and see if this new found optimism is still in play on Monday.  Volume remains high at 7.7 billion. 

Wall Street drops more than 1 percent on Trump tariff comments

Today the President said something that the market very much did not want to hear when he announced tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, a move that will certainly raise prices on key consumer items and very likely fuel inflation much more than is already feared.  The reaction was quite predictable – a 420 point sell off in the Dow, the 3^rd straight day of the index losing more than 1 percent.  These three consecutive losing days has taken the S&P from a point of 70% recovery from the January 26^th high at the beginning of the week to down 6 percent from the high, or half of the recovery lost.  Adding to the woes was NY Fed Prez Dudley saying in more pointed language that there will be a fourth hike this year.  So nothing good happened today which resulted in the very high volume of 9 billion shares traded in a sell off.