MIB: Joe Ricketts, Founder TD Ameritrade

Yesterday the headline was a Black Friday that was softer than in prior years.  And the Dow sank.  Today the headline is the biggest record breaking Black Friday ever.  It seems Friday's reporting lacked complete data.  It will be interesting to see what this update will do to the markets on Monday.  For your reading this weekend, Barry Ritholtz's column today features a 1 hour and 7 minute interview with the founder of TD Ameritrade, the man who invented online trading and revolutionized investing.  It will probably be necessary to click on the link in order to access the recording. It certainly looks like an hour that will be well spent but, if you follow the web site, a transcript of the interview is promised later in the week. 

Wall Street slips as U.S.-China tensions weigh, investors watch retail

Between the double whammies of China being mad at us for supporting the Hong Kong protests and Black Friday failing to be the blowout it usually is, the Dow dropped 112 points. But since hardly anybody was home today to do business, it was hardly consequential. And those who were on the job stayed on the sidelines awaiting economic reports due next week.  Also since the markets were only open a half day today, it made sense that volume would only be half of the average, coming in at around 3.5 billion. 

The 670 Year History of Interest Rates

Happy Thanksgiving one and all!  And since one of the many things we have to be thankful for this Thanksgiving are the recent record breaking stock market indexes due to the low interest rate environment, I thought it was fitting that The Big Picture blog chose today to do a review of the past several centuries of rates and rate changes and their effects on the markets and society in general.  Enjoy and have a great holiday weekend.  

Solid data, trade hopes lift Wall Street to records

A virtual repeat of yesterday in this slow holiday trading week, but with the added good news that Q3 growth turned out to be ever so slightly positive after all rather than the expected contraction, thereby signaling the markets that the greater concerns that this slowdown may be the start of a trend might not be valid. And better news – consumer spending continues a steady increase.  New orders for capital goods increased and optimism continues regarding China pushed the Dow up modestly again 42 points, but trading volumes at just over 5.5 billion shares traded were among the lowest for the year ahead of the holiday.

Wall Street crawls to record levels on trade hopes

More trade optimism sent the indexes into a day of modest gains with the Dow up another 55 and all three indexes notching records again, this is the fifth time in eight sessions.  Next step: investors will have their focus on whether consumer spending, the lynchpin of this economy, will continue. Will we have a healthy holiday shopping season this year?  So far the data suggests that we will.  Volume was high at just under 8 billion. 

Wall Street sets records on trade progress optimism

For the second day there have been positive press reports about a trade deal, this time from China saying Beijing and Washington were “moving closer to agreeing” to a pact, thereby moving the Dow up another 190 points.  Monday marked the fourth closing record for all three indexes over the past seven sessions.  Volume remains a little below average at 6.5 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.22.19 (plus 2020 Investing Advice Pt. II)

Below is the usual Sunday night weekly summation, the main positive being a continuing profitable Q3, the negative being a week-long sell off due to weakening confidence in a trade deal.  The bonus this time is an important clarification to Saturday's post.  Last night's entry was a rather long read but, since the information is so valuable, I thought I should clarify that if you click on the provided link to the actual Fortune article, you'll find that the article is actually a transcript of an interview of these experts all conducted on video. The video, 45 minutes in length, is at the top of the article. Some of you might prefer to listen to the interview rather than reading the transcript.  Either way, hope everyone enjoyed their weekend. 

A Roundtable of Investing Experts Share Their Best Advice for 2020

For your weekend reading, Barry Ritholtz posted this article today from this week's Fortune magazine which has some rather lucid insights as to where the market is heading.  At 3700 words, it's a long read but well worth it.  There may well be cautionary advice in there that is to be taken seriously.  Hope everyone is enjoying their weekend. 

Wall Street rises with U.S.-China trade mood, upbeat economic data

Just as the market has fallen in recent days due to reports of the trade deal not going through or at the very least delayed, today’s reports that a deal was “potentially very close” shot the Dow up 109 points. But as today’s expert says, “Trump saying it’s close is news we’ve heard before.”  Investors also found modest hope in Trump’s vague suggestion that he might not sign the new bills supporting the Hong Kong protesters.  There was also optimism to be found in today’s strong manufacturing data.  Volume was lighter than usual at just under 6 billion. 

Wall Street dips as investors await U.S.-China trade progress

On a day filled with mixed messages and no new signs of trade progress, the Dow spent the day in the red and sank a modest 54 points.  The consensus seems to be that the market has been rallied as much as it can be on trade optimism and is currently overbought so it is time for some consolidation.  As today’s expert says, “We’ve pushed this as far as we can. Valuations appear stretched at 18.5 times earnings” vs the 20-year average of 16.5.  The House passed two bills today supporting the Hong Kong protesters and critical of China which further angered China and is seen by the market as another roadblock in the trade war.  Volume was a little below average at 6.8 billion. 

Wall Street falls on concerns about U.S.-China trade deal progress

There wasn’t much of anything that went the way investors wanted today. First the Dow took an immediate dive right out the gate after the U.S. Senate passed a measure supporting the Hong Kong protestors and thus appearing to escalate tensions with China. Then the Fed minutes did nothing to support market hopes for another rate cut this year.  But the real kicker came when Trump announced that there likely would not be a trade deal before the new tariffs go into effect December 15^th.  At that hour, around 1 pm, the Dow plummeted to the low point for the day, down over 250 points.  But there was good Q3 news so the index started climbing late to close down 112.  Perhaps the best news was this analysis: the market was more than due for a dip since we’ve had the longest stretch without back-to-back declines since 2005.  Volume was above average at nearly 7.9 billion. 

Retail sector weighs on Wall Street; Dow and S&P end lower

Trump renewing his threat to escalate the trade war was all the market needed to take a plunge right out the gate … continuing all day for the Dow to close down 102 points.  Also hampering optimism were bad reports from Home Depot and Kohl’s, both cutting their 2019 sales and profit forecasts.  Still investors are left clinging to the consumer as the hope for the economy and will be sharply focused on whether spending will continue in Q4. The good news is that most economists have predicted a lucrative holiday season to top off the year.  Q3 reports from majors Lowe’s, Target and Nordstom are due later this week as well as the Fed minutes due Wednesday.  At 6.7 billion, volume was below the 4-week average. 

Wall Street nudges up as investors await U.S.-China trade clarity

It was a day of modest movement for the markets as investors were happy about the developments with Huawei but not so happy about a new report that China is pessimistic about a trade deal.  This stands in contrast to Friday’s comments from Larry Kudlow that talks were “constructive” that shot the Dow up over 200 points and once again demonstrates that everything in this environment hangs on this trade war.  The next development will be the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting which will be released later this week, again with investors looking for clues that there will be another rate cut before the end of 2019.  Volume data was not published today.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.15.19 (plus The Economist Who Wants to Ditch Math)

Below is the weekly summation, the big positive being the markets making new all-time highs, the big negative once again being the continuing uncertainty over the trade war.  The bonus this Sunday is a lengthy (3200 words) but quite readable and highly informative article from Medium by Robert Shiller, one of the nation's top economists, taking a contrarian approach to forecasting and providing one of the best analyses I've seen in a long time concerning the state of the current economy and where it's heading. His main thesis is a century-long proof of the failure of quant to predict major downturns and what he considers a better approach.  For those of us who like forecasting -- which is just about all of us -- this read will be time well invested.  Hope everyone had a great weekend. 

7 Behaviors That Influence Investment Returns

For your weekend reading and courtesy of this week's U.S. News Invested, here is a very quick read that sums up all the pitfalls to avoid in making bad investment decisions.

Trade deal hopes, surging health stocks power Wall Street to highs

All that was needed to start another buying spree today was for Larry Kudlow to make a positive statement about the trade talks after the week of mixed signals from the White House.  It was a straight shot up all day for the Dow to close up 222 points. It also helped that reports today have retail sales rebounding in October further confirming that the consumer is in good shape. The S&P has now tallied its sixth week of gains, the longest in two years, and the Dow has reached a new high having broken 28,000 for the first time.  Volume at 6.5 billion is just a little below the 4-week average. 

S&P 500 notches record, shakes off Cisco's gloomy outlook

The market was in the red most of the day, twice over a hundred points, but eventually came back to close at even. Walmart helped the comeback but the market’s real impetus per today’s expert is that the consumer remains resilient and healthy and thus compensating for the toxic effects of the trade war and global economic and political volatility. Also there was good news from the Fed with the assessment that the odds of the economy going bust is remote. Volume was 6.3 billion. 

Disney lifts Dow, S&P 500 to records while trade tensions cast shadow

The market spent the day on a steady upward slope reacting to Fed remarks that they saw a “sustained expansion” in our future, but then got watered down by reports of problems in the trade negotiations.  In the end, the Dow was up 92 points instead of the 120 it had reached at 2 p.m.  As today’s expert said, “It’s still all about China.”  The trade dispute, which has convulsed the markets for over a year, remains a key wild card.  Disney was the other big news today jumping 7.3% on the announcement that the new streaming service had reached 10 million sign-ups in just two days, causing Netflix to dive 3 percent.  Volume was 6.8 billion. 

S&P 500 ekes out gain after Trump trade remarks

The Dow was up some 70 points in the morning session as investors awaited Trump’s remarks at the New York Economic Club hoping for some clarity on the China deal.  But then he gave the speech and offered little more than the rhetoric he’s always used about China’s cheating and, though he repeated his previous statements that a deal was close, the fact that he offered no details only added to the uncertainty again and the market dove to close exactly even.  In fact, a little history was made today because nobody can remember the index closing exactly even before, even to the tenth of a point.  At least the tariff dispute was not worsened which pushed the S&P up a bit.  Overall volume was close to the 4-week average at 6.6 billion. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq slip on trade uncertainty; Boeing buoys Dow

The Dow was down 160 points in the morning session reacting to Saturday’s Trump remarks raising more uncertainty about the trade deal, saying progress was slower that he liked.  The weekend violence in Hong Kong didn’t help matters either.  But then Q3 kicked in during the afternoon session and all was recovered with 10 points to spare.  As today’s expert pointed out, “The biggest risk right now is excessive optimism” so the consolidation that we’ve seen in the last couple sessions is a good thing. All ears will now be on Trump’s speech on Tuesday at the Economic Club of New York.  Meanwhile Boeing led the day’s surge with the news that the 737 MAX jet has been approved for return to commercial service.  Due to the holiday, volume was light at 5.5 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.8.19 (plus Astrology Based Stock Picking)

As usual, below is the weekly summation, the positives being continued hopes for a quick resolution to the trade war, the negatives dominated by the increasing likelihood of impeachment, which could just as easily be a positive depending on one's perspective.  Q3 is also listed as a negative but could (even should?) be a positive considering that it is ending on a much better note than was originally forecast six weeks ago.

Akre Focus Fund

Following up again last weekend's posts about mimicking Warren Buffett's portfolio, on PBS's Wealthtrack this week they spotlighted what they considered to be one of the top mutual funds in the business, The Akre Focus Fund, which in its nearly 30 years of existence has had an annualized 17% rate of return for the last ten years. This is one of the fewer than 1 in 4 actively managed funds that have succeeded in beating the market in the last decade.  It can be had for $44.31 per share and may prove to be an even better example of micro-investing than the Buffett portfolio.  Food for thought.  Enjoy your weekend.

S&P 500 posts fifth week of gains as Wall St. hits records

Since the indexes all hit records yesterday and since today there were again gains, it became another day of records and, even though the S&P lost a few points, for the fifth week it had gains.  There were more mixed signals from the White House about the trade deal but today investors just brushed it off.  Optimism is dominating the market with hopes on trade and a better than expected Q3 leading this recent record run, even bringing the VIX down to its lowest level since July.  Most S&P companies have now reported with three –quarters beating estimates.  Volume remains healthy at 6.6 billion. 

Dow, S&P 500 hit record closes as investors digest trade news

On more positive news of progress in a trade deal with China the Dow shot up a hundred points right out the gate and during the day the momentum continued pushing the index up another 130 points such that by about 2 pm, it was up nearly 300 points. Then came news that there was dissension within the White House about the deal and before close it came down to close up 182.  Today’s expert states that because of the combo of all-time highs and trade uncertainty, it’s easy for traders to sell and take profits at the slightest sign of negative developments.  Nevertheless, some sort of trade deal is expected to go into effect in time to scrap the tariffs scheduled for mid-December. Q3 still goes very well which, while earnings are still down from this time last year (which was widely expected from the beginning) but down far less than forecast.  Volume was 7.9 billion, considerably above the 4-week average of 6.8 billion. 

Wall St. ends near flat; healthcare shares gain but trade deal delay weighs

Healthcare companies came through the day with glowing Q3 reports which in the morning had the Dow up about 30 points in the morning but then dropped like a rock 120 points at the noon hour when news broke of a delay in the China deal.  But Q3 was still enough to spur on a recovery in the afternoon and the Dow closed less than 1/10^th point down.  Volume remained brisk at 7.9 billion, meaning that any news on the trade war, bad or good, triggers a whole flurry of buying or selling. 

S&P 500 retreats slightly after recent record

The Dow was up about a hundred points in the afternoon but then leveled off to close 30 up as investors decided to take a breath awaiting more news on the trade deal.  China wants more tariffs removed and since it’s very uncertain whether Trump will grant this concession, the market became skittish again.  The market is at an all-time high so there has been a move to value stocks.  Over 75% of the S&P companies that have reported thus far have beaten the forecasts for Q3 so all is well.  But an end to the trade war is what everyone’s really looking for right now.  Volume was again quite brisk at 7.9 billion. 

Indexes hit closing records amid further trade deal optimism

The renewed hopes for a resolution to the trade war that began on Friday continued into Monday’s trading with the Dow gaining another 114 points, a new all-time high since July, and the second session of all-time records for both the Nasdaq and S&P.  Other good news helping the indexes is the redemption of Huawei Technologies.  Q3 continues to go well with most S&P companies beating estimates and volume was brisk at 7.5 billion.  (Note: volume data is appearing again; it appears that Caroline Valetkevitch was probably on vacation last week as the other writers of the Reuters daily market report don’t always include this number.) 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.1.19 (plus A Take Back on Warren Buffett)

Below is the standard weekly summation that Barry Ritholtz publishes every Friday evening on his blog "The Big Picture" and that I republish every Sunday evening on my blog "MariasCap".  The positives this week are one less terrorist leader in the world, GDP and personal income rising, and payrolls coming in at a +128K instead of the expected +90K.  The negatives again revolve around the doubts that surfaced about concluding the trade war even though this summary may have been written before the Chinese new media rebuffed that story on Friday, a rebuff that sent the Dow soaring over 300 points. 

The Ultimate and Easiest ETF

The week before last, U.S. News Invested published the updated Warren Buffett portfolio, all 43 holdings current as of the most recent SEC filing on October 10th.  It seems that creating a mirror portfolio of this one from the world's most successful investor would be the ultimate way to create your own and the easiest ETF.  One could use Acorn Advisers to very easily fund the account and then proportion the shares with fractional buying.  And it's not even necessary to invest in all 43 companies.  In fact, I discovered that 95% of all Buffett's holdings are in just 10 companies, an astounding 73% in just one company -- Phillips66!

S&P 500, Nasdaq set records on jobs data, trade headway

Yesterday there was a report that the Chinese were skeptical that an agreement with Trump could be reached and the Dow tanked 140 points.  Today, China’s Xinhua News reported that they have “reached consensus on principles” and the Dow shot up 301 points.  The S&P also hit another closing record for the third time this week, strong job numbers came out and Chinese manufacturing unexpectedly expanded.  76% of 376 S&P companies have beaten estimates including, today, Exxon Mobil.  All in all, nothing but good news, a great day for all the indexes, and volume reflected this with 7.4 billion shares traded.