Wall Street edges higher; S&P closes decade with nearly 190% gain

On the last day of the decade, investors seemed satisfied with yesterday’s sell off and started buying again, boosting the Dow another 76 points.  And there’s good reason to buy.  During the decade, the S&P rose nearly 200%, the Dow nearly 175%, the Nasdaq nearly 300%.  For the year the numbers were also quite impressive:  the Dow up 22%, the S&P 29%, the Nasdaq 35%.  The good news that came in today was that the China deal would be signed January 15^th.  As today’s pundit put it, “It helps to have two steps forward, one step back. It helps sustain the rally.”  As expected volume was below the 4-week average at just under 6 billion. 

Wall Street slips from records as investors lock in year-end gains

It was a day of profit taking as investors became a bit nervous about the high valuations and, having made their targets (and then some), getting out before year-end while things were still on the high side made sense.  So the Dow dropped 183 points and it will be interesting to see if the profit-taking continues on the last full day of the year or if everyone seems satisfied tomorrow.  As it is another holiday week, volume remains on the light side at just over 6.1 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 12.27.19 (plus a view of the nation from both right and left)

The year's final weekly summation is below with the positives being the new market highs with no end in sight as all the fundamentals remain very bullish.  The negative once again could just as easily be a positive as it relates to the China deal.  The negative is only that it's not a done deal yet, the positive being that it is very much expected to be next month, at least the Phase One part.  The negative again is that nobody really knows the details of Phase One so any celebration is likely premature. 

The Year In Picture 2019

For the final weekend of the year, U.S. News & World Report has put out a wonderful year-end issue featuring 67 marvelous photos illustrating 2019's most significant events.  I think you'll find each image to be a minor masterpiece, but there was a single photograph in particular that grabbed my eye as capturing the essence of the world of investing for 2019.  I display that picture below. (And I'll bet you all thought that the headline was a typo.)  Enjoy the rest of the weekend.

S&P 500, Dow eke out records; Nasdaq win streak ends

The market has continued its holding pattern where it will likely remain until year-end. There has been more positive data as China’s industrial profits grew at their fastest pace in eight months.  The expectation of a signed trade deal next month combined with low interest rates and strong consumer spending is a recipe for equity values to continue moving higher.  Volume continues on the light side with 5.2 billion shares vs the 4-week average of 6.8 billion.

Nasdaq tops 9,000 on boosts from Amazon, trade optimism

Even though trading remained astoundingly light as expected for this week, continuing optimism over the trade deal was still sufficient to push the Dow up another 105 points and the Nasdaq to still another record, this time breaching the 9,000 mark. The buying is continuing as the S&P is up 29% for 2019 and there is no sign of any pullback in the near future.  Adding to the optimism was the latest report on unemployment benefits which continues to confirm ongoing strength in the labor market as well as today’s MasterCard report showing even stronger online spending this holiday than last year.  Volume was 4.5 billion.  The 4-week average is 6.8 billion. 

The Best Decade In Human History

When I saw this recent article from "The Spectator" posted on Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture blog on Christmas morning, it occurred to me that there really isn't any better way to honor the Christmas tradition than to celebrate everything that's right with the world, which is something we do so seldom.  So Merry Christmas everyone and hope you enjoy below this 1500 word essay about the good. 

S&P 500, Dow pause near records in Christmas Eve trade

It was a second day of a quiet market after a week of record gains as the indexes remained flat on very thin volume of less than 3 billion shares due to the Christmas holiday.  Still, the S&P is on track for its biggest annual gain in 6 years.  Merry Christmas. 

Wall Street posts records amid trade optimism; Boeing juices Dow

Continued optimism about a soon-to-be signed trade pact reinforced by yet another Trump announcement that the pact would be signed “very shortly” shot the Dow up another 96 points.  Today was the S&P’s third consecutive record high, eighth consecutive intraday record high, and the Nasdaq’s eighth consecutive record high.  Also bolstering optimism was China lowering tariffs on a range of products thereby providing the reassurance so key to businesses that tariffs may not escalate further.  Due to Christmas, volume was under 6 billion, considerably less than the 4-week average of 7.2 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 12.20.19 (plus Public Gives the Economy Mixed Reviews)

Once again it's time for the weekly summation, the big positives being that, just like in the Clinton years, the stock market is proving that it doesn't care about impeachment.  There's also the small matter that we are once again at record highs, in fact making new highs practically every day as news of a trade deal become more and more positive.  The negative is also the impeachment, but fortunately only from a philosophical perspective, not an economic one. 

Master Stockpicker Peter Lynch: If You Only Invest in an Index, You’ll Never Beat It

Though there is much to be said for passive index investing (after all, study after study has shown that this strategy beats active management almost all the time), it has always certainly been the aim of our group to beat the index.  So today's post under Weekend Reads seemed particularly appropriate -- an article about Peter Lynch addressing this very topic.  The bad news is that it's from Barron's and not only could I not find this article anywhere on this link, but I'm quite certain you have to subscribe to Barron's to be able to read anything there.  But it's worth a shot.  Enjoy the weekend. 

S&P 500 posts biggest weekly percent gain since September amid data, trade optimism

With positive news on consumer spending adding to a string of upbeat data dampening recession fears, the markets had another run of record closings, the S&P registering its biggest weekly gain in four months and its seventh straight all-time intraday high, the longest streak in two years.  The Nasdaq also ended its eighth straight record close on very high volume of over 11.5 billion.  However, these high numbers (in fact the highest for the year) are the result of the usual year-end “quadruple witching” so can’t be trusted. More reliable volume numbers might be had on Monday.

Record-setting rally resumes as Mnuchin says trade deal to be signed

Today was yet another affirmation (in fact, the strongest yet) of the reality of a finalized trade deal with Steve Mnuchin’s announcement that signatures would be had in early January. But what really sealed the deal was his statement that the agreement would not be subject to renegotiation, thereby relieving concerns that something could still botch it.  As today’s expert said, “There’s still trepidation until we get to the actual signing,” but it was quite enough to bolster optimism and boost the Dow another 137 points, sending all three indexes to record highs again, the S&P for the sixth straight time, the Nasdaq for the seventh.  Volume was a little above the 4-week average at just over 7 billion. 

Wall Street pauses record-setting rally as FedEx shares tumble

Investors once again are taking a pause after several record breaking sessions.  The S&P may have taken a slight dip but still hit an intraday record while the Nasdaq hit a record for a fifth straight session.  And though the Dow took a modest 27 point dive, sentiment remains strong and upbeat on the heels of last week’s trade announcement and the impeachment is being shrugged off, the belief being that, however it goes, there will be no impact on the market.  Volume was above average at 7.7 billion. 

Wall Street extends record-setting climb on upbeat economic data

Though the Dow was up about a hundred points earlier in the day, it lost steam and closed 31 up.  A host of positive reports from housing to manufacturing to the Fed drove it up.  The rest was likely just consolidation.  But today’s consensus is that the data shows the global economy is stabilizing and the U.S. economy is solid, putting recession risks lower.  Volume was above average at nearly 7.3 billion. 

Wall Street sets records anew on trade deal boost

Another day of record closes for the markets over hopes that the interim trade deal will lift prospects for the global economy, shooting the Dow up another hundred points. Also contributing to an improving global outlook were reports that China’s industrial output and retail sales growth had accelerated in November.  The Fed increasing its balance sheet also added to good feelings, all in all an upbeat day on above average volume of nearly 7.5 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 12.13.19 (plus Thinking About Thinking)

The usual weekly summation is below.  On the plus side we again have all the major indexes reaching all time highs, on the minus (which could just as easily be a plus), we have a Phase One trade deal, counted as a minus only because it's quite a bit more modest than had been expected.  But the important thing to investors is that the tariffs that were to take effect yesterday have been put off and possibly avoided altogether. 

The bonus this Sunday night is one of our very favorite topics as we once again delve into the world of behavioral finance.  This weekend Barry Ritholtz posted a link on his Big Picture blog to an article providing a book list on the topic of thinking about thinking.  These titles tackle everything from the biology of behavior to the history of quant, genetic engineering and artificial intelligence.  All in all, there are ten books to explore, which should keep us all busy for a good while.  Hope everyone had a great weekend. 

Capitalism Under Attack

For your weekend reading I thought I'd offer up a very thought provoking segment of PBS' WealthTrack program aired November 21st entitled "Capitalism Under Attack."  But it's not a defense of capitalism but rather a recognition of a distinctly unfavorable trend that's has enveloped capital markets for the past 20 years, that is that the whole free market system of economics that has been so successful for the past century and a half has lately been experiencing a crisis of ethics. 

Wall Street steady as U.S., China announce trade deal

It became official today with the U.S. and China announcing an initial trade deal and the much wanted suspension of tariffs that were to take effect on the 15^th. That and Boris Johnson’s election victory have taken two major risk factors off the table. For now at least, trade war escalation and further confusion on Brexit have been averted. But more details are needed which is why the market decided the real rally was yesterday so today the Dow barely budged 3 points. Volume remained vigorous at 7.4 billion. 

Wall Street hits records on news of U.S.-China trade deal

Everyone’s had eagle eyes out on December 15^th and though it’s not really official yet and it’s probably quite a lot more watered down than the market wants, still today’s announcement of a “deal in principle” with China and new hopes of avoiding or at least delaying the new tariffs sent the Dow soaring 220 points.  All three indexes reached intraday records and the S&P and Nasdaq did post new records at close.  The trade war aside, the S&P is looking at a 26% gain for 2019.  The excitement today was palpable and volume was well above average at 8 billion shares traded. 

Wall Street posts modest gain as Fed signals rates to hold for some time

It was pretty much a repeat of yesterday except in reverse.  Everyone’s still on the fence waiting for December 15^th, but this time the Dow ended 29 points up instead of 27 points down.  Investors also took some consolation when the Fed decided to leave the benchmark rate where it is, suggesting sufficient steps have been taken to prevent a downturn.  That leaves investors to focus on the trade deal – and December 15^th.  But as today’s expert says, “we are in a pretty good interest rate environment to hopefully help the growth rate.”  As the market remains in “wait-and-see” mode, volume remains below average at 6.3 billion. 

Wall Street slips as tariff deadline closes in

It’s more of the same with everyone on pins and needles waiting to see what happens on December 15^th with the tariffs and sitting on the sidelines until there’s more clarity.  As today’s expert said, “I don’t think that the markets are going to be completely comfortable until there is a line drawn in the sand that says no new tariffs on the 15^th.”  This was reflected in the low volume of 6.3 billion and the fact that the Dow barely budged, down just 27 points. 

Wall St. falls as Apple, health shares drag, tariff deadline looms

As the critical December 15^th tariff date quickly approaches the markets pulled back a bit from last week’s near-record levels to go into “wait-and-see” mode on the trade deal. It is anyone’s best guess as to what will happen between now and Saturday.  There remains at least some hope for some minimal agreement and that nominal hope is what’s keeping everything floating. But for today at least, all the indexes pulled back a bit, the Dow to the tune of a 105 points, but at least it was all on minimal volume of just 6.2 billion shares. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 12.6.19 (plus 10 Top Investing Themes for the Next Decade)

The weekly summation is below, the biggest positive being the old headline that the bull market continues in earnest. The latest evidence of this was Friday's payroll report showing nearly 90,000 more new jobs in November than had been forecast.  The biggest negative is also the old headline of the never-ending trade war, now well over a year old, and investors seeing a deal getting further and further away.  The bonus this Sunday is the latest from U.S. News Invested discussing the top 10 investing themes for the coming decade.  Speak of being succinct, this sums up the whole market environment in a few short paragraphs.  Hope everyone had a great weekend. 

170 Years of Recession

For your amusement (and information) this fascinating little chart posted today on The Big Picture blog shows the 170 history of recessions in the U.S. dating from 1850.  It is of special interest to note that the 2010's has been the only decade in history not to have even one recession.  And no sign of anything on the horizon.  Yet the cynics have been insisting for ten years that a major catastrophic recession is just around the corner.  Food for thought.  Enjoy the weekend. 

Wall Street climbs on solid jobs data, trade hopes

The market was hoping for 180,000 new jobs in November so when the actuals came in at a whopping 266,000 it further cemented the long-held assumption that the economy was fundamentally strong.  Combine that with new statements from the White House that trade talks were going very well, essentially “the reality is constructive talks, almost daily talks; we are in fact close” and the Dow shot up right out the gate and stayed there all day closing up 337 points.  At 6.6 billion, volume was right in line with the 4-week average.  And all three major indexes are once again within 1% of record highs. 

Wall Street inches higher as Dec. 15 tariff deadline looms

The market was in the red most of the day but ended just a little above even with the Dow gaining 28 points.  It was called a day of consolidation as investors try to calibrate the next move in the trade deal. But the bottom line remains, as today’s expert stated, “The markets are going to toggle up and down until we see what happens on December 15^th.”  As for the impeachment, investors are just shrugging it off.  Economic data remains encouraging showing a robust if slowing economy.  All eyes are now on Friday’s employment report where 180,000 new jobs are expected.  Volume was just a little below average at 6.4 billion. 

Wall Street bounces back on renewed trade optimism

I didn’t expect it to happen so soon but it did! Just one day after a nearly 300 point drop triggered by Trump’s comment that there might not be a deal with China for another year, today the commentary from the White House changed dramatically to indicate that trade negotiations were going “very well” and that a deal was close thereby shooting the Dow up nearly 150 points.  Again, today’s expert cautioned against putting too much stock on trade news and instead “investors should not lose sight of solid underlying market fundamentals. The consumer’s on fire.”  Next up: Friday’s employment report.  Volume was a little above average at 7 billion. 

Wall Street falls as trade hopes wane

The sky fell in today. All the hopes throughout the past months for an end to the trade war by year-end got dashed today with the announcement from Trump that he may not do a deal with China now until after next year’s election.  The double-whammy was Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross confirming everyone’s worst fears that the new tariffs against China would take effect December 15^th.  So after yesterday’s 268 point drop, today the Dow dropped another 280 points.  No worries though.  As the trend has been, there’s every likelihood that in the next day or two there will be yet another announcement that a deal is expected after all by December 15^th and the new tariffs will be avoided.  That’s what’s happened in the past, so who knows?  Volume was above average at 7.4 billion. 

U.S. stocks retreat on economy and trade jitters

The tremendous success of the nation’s holiday weekend shopping spree was not enough to overcome today’s announcement of new tariffs on steel and, even though these tariffs are for Brazil and Argentina (not China), the message received was that Trump will allow tariffs increased against China on December 15^th. This combined with contracting manufacturing data sent the Dow plunging 268 points. The weak manufacturing was the fourth in as many months signaling a possible end to expansion which is somewhat irrational given that consensus has been that consumerism will keep the expansion going, something that was much in evidence all weekend.  Nevertheless, between that and the trade issues, investors see hindrance to growth.  At 6.8 billion, volume was exactly in line with recent averages. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.29.19

On Friday, the reports were that Black Friday was a bust and the market sank. But over the weekend new data has surfaced that has said the opposite -- Black Friday was one of the biggest ever!  My hunch is that tomorrow is going to be a very good day for the Dow and S&P.  Below is the weekly summation and it's curious that there's no mention of Black Friday and its impact on the indexes, even though the dour outlook was triggered by the fact that there weren't that many shoppers in line outside the stores Friday morning.  It turns out much of the shopping was done online.  Anyway, tomorrow should be exciting.  Hope everyone had a great holiday weekend. 

MIB: Joe Ricketts, Founder TD Ameritrade

Yesterday the headline was a Black Friday that was softer than in prior years.  And the Dow sank.  Today the headline is the biggest record breaking Black Friday ever.  It seems Friday's reporting lacked complete data.  It will be interesting to see what this update will do to the markets on Monday.  For your reading this weekend, Barry Ritholtz's column today features a 1 hour and 7 minute interview with the founder of TD Ameritrade, the man who invented online trading and revolutionized investing.  It will probably be necessary to click on the link in order to access the recording. It certainly looks like an hour that will be well spent but, if you follow the web site, a transcript of the interview is promised later in the week. 

Wall Street slips as U.S.-China tensions weigh, investors watch retail

Between the double whammies of China being mad at us for supporting the Hong Kong protests and Black Friday failing to be the blowout it usually is, the Dow dropped 112 points. But since hardly anybody was home today to do business, it was hardly consequential. And those who were on the job stayed on the sidelines awaiting economic reports due next week.  Also since the markets were only open a half day today, it made sense that volume would only be half of the average, coming in at around 3.5 billion. 

The 670 Year History of Interest Rates

Happy Thanksgiving one and all!  And since one of the many things we have to be thankful for this Thanksgiving are the recent record breaking stock market indexes due to the low interest rate environment, I thought it was fitting that The Big Picture blog chose today to do a review of the past several centuries of rates and rate changes and their effects on the markets and society in general.  Enjoy and have a great holiday weekend.  

Solid data, trade hopes lift Wall Street to records

A virtual repeat of yesterday in this slow holiday trading week, but with the added good news that Q3 growth turned out to be ever so slightly positive after all rather than the expected contraction, thereby signaling the markets that the greater concerns that this slowdown may be the start of a trend might not be valid. And better news – consumer spending continues a steady increase.  New orders for capital goods increased and optimism continues regarding China pushed the Dow up modestly again 42 points, but trading volumes at just over 5.5 billion shares traded were among the lowest for the year ahead of the holiday.

Wall Street crawls to record levels on trade hopes

More trade optimism sent the indexes into a day of modest gains with the Dow up another 55 and all three indexes notching records again, this is the fifth time in eight sessions.  Next step: investors will have their focus on whether consumer spending, the lynchpin of this economy, will continue. Will we have a healthy holiday shopping season this year?  So far the data suggests that we will.  Volume was high at just under 8 billion. 

Wall Street sets records on trade progress optimism

For the second day there have been positive press reports about a trade deal, this time from China saying Beijing and Washington were “moving closer to agreeing” to a pact, thereby moving the Dow up another 190 points.  Monday marked the fourth closing record for all three indexes over the past seven sessions.  Volume remains a little below average at 6.5 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.22.19 (plus 2020 Investing Advice Pt. II)

Below is the usual Sunday night weekly summation, the main positive being a continuing profitable Q3, the negative being a week-long sell off due to weakening confidence in a trade deal.  The bonus this time is an important clarification to Saturday's post.  Last night's entry was a rather long read but, since the information is so valuable, I thought I should clarify that if you click on the provided link to the actual Fortune article, you'll find that the article is actually a transcript of an interview of these experts all conducted on video. The video, 45 minutes in length, is at the top of the article. Some of you might prefer to listen to the interview rather than reading the transcript.  Either way, hope everyone enjoyed their weekend. 

A Roundtable of Investing Experts Share Their Best Advice for 2020

For your weekend reading, Barry Ritholtz posted this article today from this week's Fortune magazine which has some rather lucid insights as to where the market is heading.  At 3700 words, it's a long read but well worth it.  There may well be cautionary advice in there that is to be taken seriously.  Hope everyone is enjoying their weekend. 

Wall Street rises with U.S.-China trade mood, upbeat economic data

Just as the market has fallen in recent days due to reports of the trade deal not going through or at the very least delayed, today’s reports that a deal was “potentially very close” shot the Dow up 109 points. But as today’s expert says, “Trump saying it’s close is news we’ve heard before.”  Investors also found modest hope in Trump’s vague suggestion that he might not sign the new bills supporting the Hong Kong protesters.  There was also optimism to be found in today’s strong manufacturing data.  Volume was lighter than usual at just under 6 billion. 

Wall Street dips as investors await U.S.-China trade progress

On a day filled with mixed messages and no new signs of trade progress, the Dow spent the day in the red and sank a modest 54 points.  The consensus seems to be that the market has been rallied as much as it can be on trade optimism and is currently overbought so it is time for some consolidation.  As today’s expert says, “We’ve pushed this as far as we can. Valuations appear stretched at 18.5 times earnings” vs the 20-year average of 16.5.  The House passed two bills today supporting the Hong Kong protesters and critical of China which further angered China and is seen by the market as another roadblock in the trade war.  Volume was a little below average at 6.8 billion. 

Wall Street falls on concerns about U.S.-China trade deal progress

There wasn’t much of anything that went the way investors wanted today. First the Dow took an immediate dive right out the gate after the U.S. Senate passed a measure supporting the Hong Kong protestors and thus appearing to escalate tensions with China. Then the Fed minutes did nothing to support market hopes for another rate cut this year.  But the real kicker came when Trump announced that there likely would not be a trade deal before the new tariffs go into effect December 15^th.  At that hour, around 1 pm, the Dow plummeted to the low point for the day, down over 250 points.  But there was good Q3 news so the index started climbing late to close down 112.  Perhaps the best news was this analysis: the market was more than due for a dip since we’ve had the longest stretch without back-to-back declines since 2005.  Volume was above average at nearly 7.9 billion. 

Retail sector weighs on Wall Street; Dow and S&P end lower

Trump renewing his threat to escalate the trade war was all the market needed to take a plunge right out the gate … continuing all day for the Dow to close down 102 points.  Also hampering optimism were bad reports from Home Depot and Kohl’s, both cutting their 2019 sales and profit forecasts.  Still investors are left clinging to the consumer as the hope for the economy and will be sharply focused on whether spending will continue in Q4. The good news is that most economists have predicted a lucrative holiday season to top off the year.  Q3 reports from majors Lowe’s, Target and Nordstom are due later this week as well as the Fed minutes due Wednesday.  At 6.7 billion, volume was below the 4-week average. 

Wall Street nudges up as investors await U.S.-China trade clarity

It was a day of modest movement for the markets as investors were happy about the developments with Huawei but not so happy about a new report that China is pessimistic about a trade deal.  This stands in contrast to Friday’s comments from Larry Kudlow that talks were “constructive” that shot the Dow up over 200 points and once again demonstrates that everything in this environment hangs on this trade war.  The next development will be the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting which will be released later this week, again with investors looking for clues that there will be another rate cut before the end of 2019.  Volume data was not published today.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.15.19 (plus The Economist Who Wants to Ditch Math)

Below is the weekly summation, the big positive being the markets making new all-time highs, the big negative once again being the continuing uncertainty over the trade war.  The bonus this Sunday is a lengthy (3200 words) but quite readable and highly informative article from Medium by Robert Shiller, one of the nation's top economists, taking a contrarian approach to forecasting and providing one of the best analyses I've seen in a long time concerning the state of the current economy and where it's heading. His main thesis is a century-long proof of the failure of quant to predict major downturns and what he considers a better approach.  For those of us who like forecasting -- which is just about all of us -- this read will be time well invested.  Hope everyone had a great weekend. 

7 Behaviors That Influence Investment Returns

For your weekend reading and courtesy of this week's U.S. News Invested, here is a very quick read that sums up all the pitfalls to avoid in making bad investment decisions.

Trade deal hopes, surging health stocks power Wall Street to highs

All that was needed to start another buying spree today was for Larry Kudlow to make a positive statement about the trade talks after the week of mixed signals from the White House.  It was a straight shot up all day for the Dow to close up 222 points. It also helped that reports today have retail sales rebounding in October further confirming that the consumer is in good shape. The S&P has now tallied its sixth week of gains, the longest in two years, and the Dow has reached a new high having broken 28,000 for the first time.  Volume at 6.5 billion is just a little below the 4-week average. 

S&P 500 notches record, shakes off Cisco's gloomy outlook

The market was in the red most of the day, twice over a hundred points, but eventually came back to close at even. Walmart helped the comeback but the market’s real impetus per today’s expert is that the consumer remains resilient and healthy and thus compensating for the toxic effects of the trade war and global economic and political volatility. Also there was good news from the Fed with the assessment that the odds of the economy going bust is remote. Volume was 6.3 billion. 

Disney lifts Dow, S&P 500 to records while trade tensions cast shadow

The market spent the day on a steady upward slope reacting to Fed remarks that they saw a “sustained expansion” in our future, but then got watered down by reports of problems in the trade negotiations.  In the end, the Dow was up 92 points instead of the 120 it had reached at 2 p.m.  As today’s expert said, “It’s still all about China.”  The trade dispute, which has convulsed the markets for over a year, remains a key wild card.  Disney was the other big news today jumping 7.3% on the announcement that the new streaming service had reached 10 million sign-ups in just two days, causing Netflix to dive 3 percent.  Volume was 6.8 billion. 

S&P 500 ekes out gain after Trump trade remarks

The Dow was up some 70 points in the morning session as investors awaited Trump’s remarks at the New York Economic Club hoping for some clarity on the China deal.  But then he gave the speech and offered little more than the rhetoric he’s always used about China’s cheating and, though he repeated his previous statements that a deal was close, the fact that he offered no details only added to the uncertainty again and the market dove to close exactly even.  In fact, a little history was made today because nobody can remember the index closing exactly even before, even to the tenth of a point.  At least the tariff dispute was not worsened which pushed the S&P up a bit.  Overall volume was close to the 4-week average at 6.6 billion. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq slip on trade uncertainty; Boeing buoys Dow

The Dow was down 160 points in the morning session reacting to Saturday’s Trump remarks raising more uncertainty about the trade deal, saying progress was slower that he liked.  The weekend violence in Hong Kong didn’t help matters either.  But then Q3 kicked in during the afternoon session and all was recovered with 10 points to spare.  As today’s expert pointed out, “The biggest risk right now is excessive optimism” so the consolidation that we’ve seen in the last couple sessions is a good thing. All ears will now be on Trump’s speech on Tuesday at the Economic Club of New York.  Meanwhile Boeing led the day’s surge with the news that the 737 MAX jet has been approved for return to commercial service.  Due to the holiday, volume was light at 5.5 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.8.19 (plus Astrology Based Stock Picking)

As usual, below is the weekly summation, the positives being continued hopes for a quick resolution to the trade war, the negatives dominated by the increasing likelihood of impeachment, which could just as easily be a positive depending on one's perspective.  Q3 is also listed as a negative but could (even should?) be a positive considering that it is ending on a much better note than was originally forecast six weeks ago.

Akre Focus Fund

Following up again last weekend's posts about mimicking Warren Buffett's portfolio, on PBS's Wealthtrack this week they spotlighted what they considered to be one of the top mutual funds in the business, The Akre Focus Fund, which in its nearly 30 years of existence has had an annualized 17% rate of return for the last ten years. This is one of the fewer than 1 in 4 actively managed funds that have succeeded in beating the market in the last decade.  It can be had for $44.31 per share and may prove to be an even better example of micro-investing than the Buffett portfolio.  Food for thought.  Enjoy your weekend.

S&P 500 posts fifth week of gains as Wall St. hits records

Since the indexes all hit records yesterday and since today there were again gains, it became another day of records and, even though the S&P lost a few points, for the fifth week it had gains.  There were more mixed signals from the White House about the trade deal but today investors just brushed it off.  Optimism is dominating the market with hopes on trade and a better than expected Q3 leading this recent record run, even bringing the VIX down to its lowest level since July.  Most S&P companies have now reported with three –quarters beating estimates.  Volume remains healthy at 6.6 billion. 

Dow, S&P 500 hit record closes as investors digest trade news

On more positive news of progress in a trade deal with China the Dow shot up a hundred points right out the gate and during the day the momentum continued pushing the index up another 130 points such that by about 2 pm, it was up nearly 300 points. Then came news that there was dissension within the White House about the deal and before close it came down to close up 182.  Today’s expert states that because of the combo of all-time highs and trade uncertainty, it’s easy for traders to sell and take profits at the slightest sign of negative developments.  Nevertheless, some sort of trade deal is expected to go into effect in time to scrap the tariffs scheduled for mid-December. Q3 still goes very well which, while earnings are still down from this time last year (which was widely expected from the beginning) but down far less than forecast.  Volume was 7.9 billion, considerably above the 4-week average of 6.8 billion. 

Wall St. ends near flat; healthcare shares gain but trade deal delay weighs

Healthcare companies came through the day with glowing Q3 reports which in the morning had the Dow up about 30 points in the morning but then dropped like a rock 120 points at the noon hour when news broke of a delay in the China deal.  But Q3 was still enough to spur on a recovery in the afternoon and the Dow closed less than 1/10^th point down.  Volume remained brisk at 7.9 billion, meaning that any news on the trade war, bad or good, triggers a whole flurry of buying or selling. 

S&P 500 retreats slightly after recent record

The Dow was up about a hundred points in the afternoon but then leveled off to close 30 up as investors decided to take a breath awaiting more news on the trade deal.  China wants more tariffs removed and since it’s very uncertain whether Trump will grant this concession, the market became skittish again.  The market is at an all-time high so there has been a move to value stocks.  Over 75% of the S&P companies that have reported thus far have beaten the forecasts for Q3 so all is well.  But an end to the trade war is what everyone’s really looking for right now.  Volume was again quite brisk at 7.9 billion. 

Indexes hit closing records amid further trade deal optimism

The renewed hopes for a resolution to the trade war that began on Friday continued into Monday’s trading with the Dow gaining another 114 points, a new all-time high since July, and the second session of all-time records for both the Nasdaq and S&P.  Other good news helping the indexes is the redemption of Huawei Technologies.  Q3 continues to go well with most S&P companies beating estimates and volume was brisk at 7.5 billion.  (Note: volume data is appearing again; it appears that Caroline Valetkevitch was probably on vacation last week as the other writers of the Reuters daily market report don’t always include this number.) 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.1.19 (plus A Take Back on Warren Buffett)

Below is the standard weekly summation that Barry Ritholtz publishes every Friday evening on his blog "The Big Picture" and that I republish every Sunday evening on my blog "MariasCap".  The positives this week are one less terrorist leader in the world, GDP and personal income rising, and payrolls coming in at a +128K instead of the expected +90K.  The negatives again revolve around the doubts that surfaced about concluding the trade war even though this summary may have been written before the Chinese new media rebuffed that story on Friday, a rebuff that sent the Dow soaring over 300 points. 

The Ultimate and Easiest ETF

The week before last, U.S. News Invested published the updated Warren Buffett portfolio, all 43 holdings current as of the most recent SEC filing on October 10th.  It seems that creating a mirror portfolio of this one from the world's most successful investor would be the ultimate way to create your own and the easiest ETF.  One could use Acorn Advisers to very easily fund the account and then proportion the shares with fractional buying.  And it's not even necessary to invest in all 43 companies.  In fact, I discovered that 95% of all Buffett's holdings are in just 10 companies, an astounding 73% in just one company -- Phillips66!

S&P 500, Nasdaq set records on jobs data, trade headway

Yesterday there was a report that the Chinese were skeptical that an agreement with Trump could be reached and the Dow tanked 140 points.  Today, China’s Xinhua News reported that they have “reached consensus on principles” and the Dow shot up 301 points.  The S&P also hit another closing record for the third time this week, strong job numbers came out and Chinese manufacturing unexpectedly expanded.  76% of 376 S&P companies have beaten estimates including, today, Exxon Mobil.  All in all, nothing but good news, a great day for all the indexes, and volume reflected this with 7.4 billion shares traded. 

Wall Street retreats from record on trade cloudiness

It was such a great Q3 day with Apple and Facebook both turning in stellar reports.  But the most spectacular development has been that in three short days the earnings forecast for Q3 has gone from a -2.0% (vs a -3.2% in early October) to an astounding -0.8% today.  (What are the bets that it’s going to be in positive numbers this time next week?)  But despite all this good news, the Dow still tanked 140 points and the culprit was good old trade war angst again.  Encouraging news yesterday and the index was up 115.  Today there’s a report that Chinese officials have doubts about ever being able to make a deal with Trump and the market sinks again.  As today’s expert comments that the rallies have been triggered by so much anticipation on the trade deal and that “this market would come in (sink) very quickly if in fact word got out the Chinese are completely walking away.”  So it’s all pins and needles until further notice.  Volume was quite brisk at 7.9 billion. 

S&P closes at record on Fed bump

The Fed did exactly what the market was expecting – another rate cut AND a lower target – which boosted the Dow another 115 and put the S&P at another all-time high for the second time in three sessions (as stated in the article, or put another way, the third time in four sessions). What further boosted confidence was the Fed statement that “monetary policy is in a good place” remaining open to what data shows them.  As today’s expert summed it up, “Flexibility is what the market wants to see.”  Q3 continues going well with 74% of the S&P beating estimates. So growth slowed less than expected in Q3 but, better yet, resilient consumer spending has allayed recession fears.  Volume was just under 7 billion. 

Wall St. dips after S&P notches record, Fed on deck

It was a day of well-deserved fence sitting as investors took a breather from yesterday’s rally and continued to observe the unfolding of Q3 which continues to go remarkably well with 77% of nearly half of the S&P reporting and beating expectations.  And there is still Apple, Facebook, Exxon and Chevron coming later this week.  As today’s expert pointed out, “The encouraging thing is that we are trading more on earnings and less on rumor, which is a nice change of pace and how the market should work.”  Now all eyes are on the Fed meeting being held Wednesday and Thursday and the almost unanimous consensus that another rate cut will come from it.  Volume was around 6.5 billion. 

Trade optimism, Fed rate-cut expectation sends S&P 500 to record

There was increased optimism today regarding trade negotiations with China and that combined with even more increased optimism over another Fed rate cut later this week pushed the Dow up 132 points.  The Dow is now less than 1% below its all-time high, the S&P achieved a new record for the second straight day and the Nasdaq closed just 5 points below its all-time high.  The oddsmakers have increased the likelihood of a Fed rate hike from last month’s 49% to 94% today and 78% of the 204 S&P 500 companies that have thus far reported have beaten estimates.  The Q3 outlook remains at a minus 2% but that’s a big improvement on the minus 3.2% that was in the forecast just two weeks ago.  Today’s Reuter’s report did not contain volume data but, per the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), volume was 6.6 billion, a tad above the 4-week average. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.25.19 (plus The White Cliffs of Brexit)

As always Sunday nights bring the weekly summation, this time the positives being that the markets are within a hair's breadth of all time highs again --  and the negatives being the usual.  In fact, depending on your point of view, the negatives concerning impeachment and the trade war might also be in the positives column.  The bonus this time is a lengthy (3300 words) article from this week's The New Republic that explains in detail everything you do and don't want to know about Brexit, raising the question that has been puzzling the world since the beginning: with all the chaos and detriments that Brexit will surely be raining down on the British, why are so many of them so anxious for it to happen?  Maybe after 3300 words, we'll have a better understanding.  Hope everyone had a great if soggy weekend.  More big rains due for Halloween. 

Use Fractional Shares for Retirement Investments

We've all heard about fractional share investing and some of us may have even used it.  So when this article popped up on last week's edition of U.S. News Invested, it looked like a really good mini-course on this very topic and so I offer it for your weekend reading.  Besides which, it looks like a great way in conjunction with the Acorn Advisers program that was discussed a short time ago, to begin to continue building the old retirement nest egg on literally a daily basis. Enjoy the rest of the weekend and try to dry out from the deluge we're having. 

S&P 500 nears record high on trade progress, upbeat Intel earnings

Week #2 of Q3 ended on a very positive note with reports that the trade negotiations are going well and the S&P hitting a new record high after its last closing record July 26^th.  The S&P had its biggest gain in seven weeks, the Nasdaq in eight weeks.  Intel had the best report shooting its stock up over 8% and the overall chip index to its own new record high.  All in all, the Dow closed up 152.  And next week will be even bigger with giants Apple, Alphabet, Pfizer and Merck reporting.  Volume was a tad below the 4-week average with just under 6.3 billion shares traded. 

Strong tech results propel S&P 500, Nasdaq

It was another day of fence sitting with the Dow up a hundred at open, then down 200 by noon to recover to a 28 point loss by close.  Q3 continues to go well with more than 80% of companies beating forecasts.  Today Microsoft and PayPal turned in stellar reports, but 3M not so much. In fact, it seemed for the day that for every company doing great there was another doing not so.  The bottom line as noted by today’s expert is that Q3 earnings “have supported a view of the economy as slowing.”  And contrary to yesterday’s good news that the tariffs were having a less than disastrous impact, today that view took a 180 with the market back to worrying about trade.  With all the lighter than usual trading days lately, today’s also light volume of just under 6.5 billion is now in line with the 4-week average. 

Wall Street ticks higher, but chip stocks tumble

The Dow was up a hundred points in the morning only to dive over 150 points by 3 pm and then recover to close up 45.  In other words, it was close to yesterday’s pattern of investors reacting to Q3 only to be put in a 180 turnaround when other news comes out.  In this case, the Q3 reporting was not as positive as in past days with giants Boeing and Caterpillar both going lackluster.  But then came the announcement that the tariffs from the trade war were having a smaller impact than expected and that caused the rally in the final hour.  But investors continue to be on the fence with volume still below average at 6.1 billion. 

Wall Street slips after rejection of Brexit timetable

The Dow was up nearly 120 points as late as 2 pm, mostly on positive Q3 reporting.  Then came the announcement that the British parliament had voted down Johnson’s Brexit plan and that sent the markets spiraling downward to close down 39.  But as today’s expert has noted, the Brexit is just one of many factors contributing to the uncertainty that plagues the market.  In fact, his statement nicely summarizes the whole global picture.  “The global economy is effectively suffering from 1,000 paper cuts.  None of them are deadly, but in agreement, they’re certainly painful.”  As investors await more Q3, volume remains below average at just under 6.4 billion. 

Trade hopes move S&P 500 close to new record high

Not a whole lot of action today as the market continues to digest Q3 and this week should tell a lot. But already only 12 percent of reporting companies have come up short. There also remains considerable optimism about trade as investors continue holding out hope that there will be some type of truce with China.  Overall sentiment is very much on the plus side.  As today’s expert put it, “We’re watching for a breakout to the upside; the early signs we’re seeing are favorable.”  Despite all this, there is still a good deal of fence-sitting.  The Dow swung back and forth in a very modest 30 or 40 point range all day but closed up 57, which isn’t much considering the news.  As the week progresses and the news remains positive, that should change.  Volume remains on the light side at under 6 billion.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.18.19 (plus Reconsidering the Advice in 3 Popular Personal Finance Books)

The usual weekly summation is presented below, the big positive that jobless claims remain at very low levels, the big negative (and the negative that brought the market crashing down on Wednesday) was the sudden contraction of retail sales at a -0.3% when they expected a +0.3%, thereby revealing for the first time that the consumer may be under stress.  The bonus this Sunday evening is another consumer reports type article, this time from The New York Times, which, unlike yesterday's post which reviewed top notch films and TV programs for your leisure time, now it's back to business with hindsight reviews of three of the most popular personal finance books that have been on the market for many years.  Consequently, this article sort of serves as an encapsulated course on investing in itself.

Top Movies and Television Series on Netflix 2019

On this autumnish weekend we shall take a break from finance and instead take the shortcut to leisure and entertainment.  What follows are all the most viewed films and television programs on Netflix during the past year.  It's sort of an one eye-shot consumer's guide to the best of the best in films and TV programs.  There should be something on this list that appeals to everyone.  Enjoy!  And enjoy the rest of the weekend. 

Boeing, J&J, dismal China data drag Wall Street lower

Today it was a triple whammy.  First, a blitzkrieg of negative headlines from such giants as J&J and Boeing; then another report that China’s GDP growth had slowed to its weakest in 30 years; and the IMF lowering its forecast for global growth to 3 percent.  The combo brought the Dow steadily down throughout the session to close 255 in the red.  But market sentiment remains positive on Q3 with nearly 84% of 73 companies beating estimates.  Still, the day’s news brought the overall Q3 forecast back above 3% as a y/o/y decline and, if it happens, it’ll be the first contraction in earnings in 3 years.  But there are some very high profile companies reporting next week so many market watchers remain on the sidelines which is reflected in the continuing below average volume which today was just over 6.2 billion. 

U.S. stocks gain on upbeat earnings, geopolitical news

The Dow was up 110 points in the morning, then dropped 130 points by noon, then came back, then fell again to close a modest 23 points up.  This was pretty much the same trend as yesterday except that today everyone is singing the praises of the day’s developments just because we closed a tiny bit in the black instead of crying gloom and doom from yesterday’s tiny bit in the red.  Well, yesterday’s tiny bit in the red was no indication of a downward trend and today’s is none so for an upward.  And those who are singing the praises just because of a few tentative pluses are being way premature.  It’s especially premature to assume that the expansion is losing steam just because of one day of underwhelming data.  We’re only 3 days into Q3 reporting and the weak volume suggests a lot of fence sitting.  The one good thing is that 82% of the 62 companies reporting to date have beaten estimates and that has already brought the S&P earnings estimate from last week’s 3.2% decline to 2.9% today.  It has been the trend in past quarters that the more companies that report the better the earnings forecast becomes. So let’s wait for all the chicks to hatch. 

Wall Street slips as weak economic data offsets earnings strength

Day #2 of Q3 reporting continues to go very well but that was not enough to overcome the anxiety produced by the first retail sales report in seven months to show a contraction, being called the first indication that consumers are stressing.  As today’s expert states, “The consumer has been looked at as the savior of this economy and this data comes out and it’s rather shocking.”  There was also more stress put on the trade war when the Congress voted to support the protesters in Hong Kong, something that certainly is consistent with our principles but will not please the Chinese at all.  Consequently the Dow was in the red all day and closed 22 down.  Of course that isn't much and one month of contraction does not make a trend so no need to panic just yet.  43 companies have now reported with 86% beating estimates.  Volume was down to just over 6 billion. 

Wall Street gains as earnings season begins in earnest

Q3 started today with a bang as all the major financial firms posted results, most of them handily beating estimates. In fact, 88% of the 34 companies that reported today beat estimates.  So the Dow jumped a big 237 points on newly found optimism as investors have ample justification now to get back into equities after an extended time of fence-sitting.  In one day now, the forecast for Q3 earnings has been upwardly revised from yesterday’s 3.2% contraction to now 3.0 percent.  If past quarters are any indication, that number will just keep improving.  Volume was a little below average at just under 6.3 billion.  But it’s only the first day of Q3 reporting. 

Stocks pause on unsettled trade deal; earnings eyed

On a holiday, everyone’s sitting on the sidelines waiting for Tuesday when Q3 reporting starts.  The uncertainties that continue surrounding the trade war brought the Dow down a modest 29 points (though for much of the session the index was up as much as 50 points.)  The Q3 forecast continues to be down 3.2% from last year’s Q3 12.1%  gain. But since it was a holiday, trading was exceedingly light at 4.7 billion.  The games begin in earnest on Tuesday when the major banks report. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.11.19 (plus Acorns Advisors)

Below is the Sunday night weekly summation, the positives being a partial trade war agreement and a drop in jobless claims, the negatives being a deepening of the Ukraine scandal and fewer new job openings than last month (though only by a trifling 120,000 over 7 million openings.)  The bonus this Sunday evening is a very informative article from last week's U.S. News Invested about a number of ways to invest without much money.  Pay particular attention to item #7 about Acorn Advisors. Sign up at Acorn and they automatically take every credit card purchase and round it up to the nearest dollar, transferring the difference to a basket of ETFs.  It sounds like a fantastic way to grow a fund without any effort at all and without any pain at all. Hope everyone had a great weekend.

AAII Weekly Digest: How to Become a Better Stock Picker

There is no one approach to selecting stocks that works for all investors.  But there are some general guidelines that can help anyone make better decisions when analyzing stocks.  With that in mind, I submit for your weekend reading the following article from this week's AAII Digest positing four tests that every investor can use to do a better job selecting stocks.  Enjoy what's left of this very coolish weekend. 

Wall Street jumps but ends off highs after partial trade deal

So the president announced today that there was a deal in principle with China, what he called a substantial “phase-1” trade deal.  And the Dow zoomed up over 500 points for most of the session.  Then, in the last 20 minutes, investors gave themselves a reality check which was expressed very succinctly by today’s expert from Jones Trading, “It looks like while there is an agreement, this is still going to … drag out and be an issue.”  And in the last 20 minutes, the Dow fell almost 200 points.  So there remains a good deal of skepticism that this trade war will end any time soon.  Today also the forecast for Q3 got a little worse from a 3.1% decline in earnings to a 3.2% decline.  Next week, the reporting begins. Good data showing a rise in consumer sentiment was countered by fears that this positive news might counter a rate hike.  Volume was a little above average at just under 7.6 billion shares traded. 

Indexes climb on fresh hopes for U.S.-China trade deal

The Dow jumped 250 points this morning on news that China had indicated more willingness to negotiate while a senior U.S. official said negotiators were working toward an “early harvest” of confidence-building agreements.  But the initial elation quickly got tempered by the reality of past history dragging the index steadily down throughout the remainder of the session closing up 150.  The consensus seems to be that there is hope that something positive comes out of this, but also tempered by the practical side that “this thing may not be finished.”  The forecast for Q3 remains at a -3.1% but this could change quickly when the first reports come flowing in next week.  Today’s data was another positive with consumer prices unchanged and inflation retreating.  Volume remains below average at just under 6.2 billion. 

Wall Street gains on trade optimism, but Beijing tempers hopes

The Dow shot up 181 points on the positive news that Beijing offered to purchase more U.S. agricultural products.  It would have been 250 except that it got shot down 70 points in the last half hour when the same Beijing expressed doubts about this week’s negotiations.  Stocks closed up but lost ground after close when Chinese officials made clear again that goodwill was damaged by the blacklisting of the 28 companies.  So there may be more selling tomorrow.  The forecast for Q3 is now increased downwards to a 3.1% drop in earnings.  But keep in mind that Q2 started with an even bleaker forecast and ended in the black.  Volume was light at 5.3 billion. 

Indexes tumble as visa restrictions fuel U.S.-China worries

It was another bath today with the Dow going way bearish with tensions added to trade talks when the U.S. imposed visa restrictions on Chinese officials.  Even Powell’s remarks, which strongly hinted at more rate cuts, were not enough to overcome the negative headlines over trade which sent the index plummeting 313 points.  Nevertheless, Powell’s comments were taken as a positive sign that the Fed was showing more concern so perhaps, once this sinks in, there’ll be a rally tomorrow.  Volume was a little below average at 6.7 billion.