Wall Street ends tumultuous year near record highs

The commentary below pretty much ignores the fact that all the indexes took a modest dive on this final day of 2021 but instead focuses on providing an excellent summary of everything that happened to the market this year.  The bottom line is that the indexes have notched their biggest 3 year advance since 1999. This year the Dow advanced 18.7%, the Nasdaq 21.4, and the S&P 27 which included 70 record closes, beaten only by the 77 from 1995.  Earnings were also spectacular, blowing way past estimates in all four quarters.  Even the Omicron variant is taken as good news since it’s not as deadly and is therefore suggesting a return to normalcy.  Volume for the holiday remained well below average at 7.6 billion.  But the article deserves a complete read for the historical perspective.  Happy New Year! 

Wall Street closes down, indexes still poised for big annual gains

On the second to the last trading day of the year, all the indexes reached new record highs early in the session, then plummeted in the final half hour to close modestly in the red, the thin holiday volume being blamed for the wild price swings. The swing up was due to a drop in unemployment claims and a purchasing index of 63, well above the standard 50 that reflects expanding activity.  There was also encouragement from Fauci’s statement that Omicron should peak by the end of January. The Santa Claus rally continues but with a note of caution.  We are heading into a midterm-elections year which almost always sees volatility in the average range of a 17% correction.  So hold on to your seats.  As today’s expert put it, “Investors were pretty spoiled this year.  Be aware that next year won’t be as easy.”  As expected, volume was very light at just under 8.1 billion. 

Dow, S&P close at record highs as Omicron worries ease

The Dow closed higher for the sixth straight day and along with the S&P enjoyed another all-time high on continued strong retailing data.  Also helping the continuing rally was more good news on Omicron which is now seen as being less likely to overwhelm the healthcare system than Delta. The indexes are all on pace for the third straight year of remarkable returns supported by historic stimulus.  Volume continued below average at 7.9 billion. 

S&P 500 ends lower after four-day rally to record high

It was a day to take a breath after the startling rallies of the past few days as investors continued to weigh the impact of Omicron on disruptions and the CDC shortened the recommended isolation time for the virus. The markets are in the traditional Santa Claus rally in which the indexes rise by 1.3% during the last five days of the year and first two of the next.  Volume, as is typical of every holiday week, was well below average at 7.5 billion.  

S&P 500 scores record high on retail sales cheer

The fourth consecutive day of the Omicron rally and today it was huge, but not just because of Omicron which the market has pretty much already decided is not going to be such a big deal after all, but because the retail sales data today revealed that not only is Omicron not hurting the holiday revenue but that this Christmas season has seen a whopping 8.5% increase in sales, considerably higher than expected.  The main worry today was the travel sector with all the cancelled flights this weekend but that was overwhelmed by the other very positive data.  With personal consumption making up 70% of GDP, the economy remains flush.  All the indexes are on track for a third consecutive year of gains.  The S&P has hit a new record for annual gains at 26% but the Dow and Nasdaq are not far behind at a rise of 18 and 23 percent respectively.  As can be expected at year’s end, volume remains on the light side at 7.7 billion. 

Boom Times

To close out this Christmas weekend I thought I would spread some final holiday cheer by sharing this very optimistic graphic that Barry Ritholtz posted to his Big Picture website on Christmas Day.  It is a chart from the last 20 years showing the really substantial increase in wealth in the bottom 50% of households, most of it in the past 2 years since the pandemic.  The source is the Fed.  Believe it, don't believe it, but it's another perspective. Meanwhile, speaking of optimism, let's see if we get to enjoy the traditional Santa Claus rally during this coming week.  

Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas!  That's all I have tonight. I'm sure on this day of celebration and family togetherness, that's all anyone wants.  Anyway, that's all I have the energy for.  Good luck on Black Sunday.  

New Market Risks

Consuelo Mack in her WealthTrack program today is rerunning a recent interview that is of note as she picks the brain of Wall Street guru Rick Bookstaber as he shares his sentiments about coming risks in the market.  This is partly inspired by long-running prognostication from another guru, Jeremy Grantham, who has long been predicting calamity, something I'm skeptical about given the fact that calamities are almost always preceded by long periods of bad market and economic fundamentals and the fundamentals for the past few years have actually been quite strong.  But everyone's entitled to their opinion, and we are all entitled to consider different perspectives.  Merry Christmas!  

U.S. stocks end at record high, oil prices rise as Omicron fears abate

A third consecutive day of Omicron rallying saw all the indexes up substantially again, all on optimism that Omicron is leading to far less hospitalizations than delta, and that data showed the economic backdrop to be on a very strong footing.  Investors once again pulled money out of the safe haven defensive sectors and back into “risk-on” cyclical recovery stocks and the tech growth stocks.  The S&P is still up 26% for the year and, given the holiday week, volume was again considerably below average at 8 billion shares traded. 

U.S. stocks close up as Omicron fears fall; 'Santa Claus rally' may be muted

It was a second day of the Omicron rush as new confidence in overcoming fears that the new variant will have an impact on the economy pushed all the indexes higher again as investors concluded “It may not have as much of an impact.”  Further validation came from Biden’s statement that there will be no new lockdowns.  Also helping were reports that the White House was entering into new negotiations with Manchin so the big bill that Wall Street and industry wants may not be dead after all.  There is still caution though that the traditional “Santa Claus” rally that happens most every year may be less pronounced this time around.  Being so close to the holiday, volume too was less pronounced at 8.6 billion. 

Wall Street posts robust gains at close with boost from Nike, Micron, following Omicron slide

Yesterday I was trying to make a dramatic point about the power of single individuals for both good and harm, so deliberately did not point out that part of the day’s rout was more panic over Omicron.  Today we learned that Omicron, though spreading rapidly, appears to be not nearly as threatening as previously feared, that those who are fully vaccinated, though there may be many breakthrough infections, have little to fear in terms of hospitalization and death. So today all the indexes soared as the recovery stocks such as energy and travel all were top percentage gainers.  As today's expert put it, "We're going to be able to ride through this Omicron surge and come out the other side in pretty good shape."  The S&P is again up nearly 24% for the year with just a handful of trading days left.  Volume was 10.1 billion, below the 4-week average. 

Wall Street skids on Omicron worry, hit to U.S. investment bill

So this is what happens when a certain U.S. Senator withdraws his support from a crucial bill.  The Dow and Nasdaq drop like stones (attributed by Wall Street analysts to this man), Goldman Sachs trims it 2022 GDP forecast after his comments. The economic recovery groups take the biggest declines including financials and materials. Investors go on defense putting money into the safe sectors of consumer staples, real estate, and utilities.  11.4 billion shares change hands in this wild sell off.  One man did all this.  What will tomorrow bring? 

7 Best Stocks to Buy Now With $1,000

For the final Sunday before the holidays begin I submit this week's edition of U.S. News Invested with their recommendations of the best stocks that can be purchased right now for a thousand dollars or less.  Hope everyone enjoyed the weekend.  

Great Investor Stocks

This week's edition of Wealthtrack is particularly appropriate coming into the holidays as she interviews Bill Miller, head of Miller Value Partners.  He discusses his own holdings, particularly in bitcoin (a subject that remains a complete mystery to me) but also focusing on the current market in general and the  values he's finding in it.  Tomorrow, I will present an article from U.S. News Invested about the best stocks to be buying for 2022.  Enjoy the rest of the weekend.  It's going to be sunny tomorrow. 

S&P 500 ends down after mostly negative week

The third day after the Fed announcement and investors are still digesting the impact of the end of bond buying and the start of new rate hikes resulting in another day of losses in all three indexes, and with Pfizer forecasting an extension of the pandemic, the cyclical Dow stocks got hit particularly hard.  The Omicron news was also not good with the new variant now determined to be 5 times more contagious than the already super-contagious delta, and the vaccines being less effective against it.  It all added up to more uncertainty than is usual for this already uncertain market.  But chin up.  This happens practically every day now.  One day there is optimism, the next fear.  Volume was way up due to options expirations so Monday will tell the true story. 

Nasdaq ends sharply lower as investors dump growth stocks

Yesterday there was elation when the Fed announced the end of bond buying and the start of rate hikes, all in the interest of taming inflation, something investors very much wanted.  Today the markets took more time to digest the reality that rate hikes would impact the tech stocks and thus there was a sweeping exodus away from tech and back towards value. A more hawkish Fed and continued pandemic fears translates to a lot of uncertainty going into 2022.  The good news is that the S&P is still up 25% for the year and the VIX has dropped to a 3-week low.  Volume came in at 11.9 billion. 

Wall St ends higher; Fed to end bond purchases in March

The news from the Fed today was even better than expected and all three indexes reacted with a huge rally bolstering the Dow 383 points and the Nasdaq 327.  The Fed will not begin tapering next year but will actually end the bond purchases in March and have not one but three rate hikes by the end of 2022.  This is what investors wanted as both moves will signal a normalization of inflation sooner rather than later. The S&P also had a sharp rise recovering almost all of its losses from earlier this week.  All the sectors, both value and growth, jumped with semiconductors leading the way at 3.7 percent.  Volume was a little above average at 12.2 billion. 

Wall Street ends lower, investors eye inflation and Omicron

With the producer price index (+9.6%) soaring to its largest gain since 11 years and 2/3 of Nasdaq stocks trading below their 200-day moving average, there was again a flight out of equities and especially out of tech as investors await Wednesday’s Fed meeting for some clarity on inflation. The tech leaders like Microsoft and Apple are the ones that drew down the most and, as today’s expert put it, “When the leaders sell off, it’s not a good sign.”  Financials gained betting the Fed will take a hawkish position and it is widely expected that there will be modest rate hikes in Q3 next year. Awaiting the news from the Fed, volume was a little below average at 10.8 billion. 

Wall Street ends down; investors eye Omicron and Fed meeting

After a few sessions of the market feeling more confident about the Omicron variant, fear took over again today with the virus spreading suddenly like wildfire in London and recording the first death, with much more expected to come. So just as there was a big rally on the leisure stocks last week, today there was a great exodus from them and a rush back into the defensive sectors of consumer staples, utilities and real estate.  In its monthly meeting that starts Tuesday, the Fed is expected to adopt a more hawkish tone regarding a wind-down and economists see a ¼ to ½% rate hike in Q3 2022.  Volume was more elevated at 10.8 billion shares traded. 

Powerful Economic Forces

This week's WealthTrack program covers the topic of "Powerful Economic Forces" in which Wall Street guru Ed Hyman outlines the major forces influencing the economy and stock market during the past year (all of which he accurately predicted last year) and gets out his crystal ball in sharing his expectations for 2022.  Hope everyone enjoyed the nice sunny breezy weekend.  More sun and breeze coming too.  

10 of the best blue-chip stocks to buy for 2022

For your weekend reading, I submit this week's edition of U.S. News Invested since, as investors have been flocking back to the blue chips of late, here are their top 10 picks for 2022.  All are solid names.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Wall St gains, S&P hits record closing high as CPI meets expectations

Though today’s CPI report was not all that great, it was nonetheless in line with expectations and taken by investors as signaling a peak rather than a sustained level. As the high CPI number is attributed largely to supply chain issues which are taken to be temporary and the data even suggests that the problem could be easing and inflation could be shrinking, all the indexes got another considerable boost with the Dow up 216 points.  Despite the media portraying the inflation problem as dire, the market at least sees it as getting solved in the foreseeable future and expect any Fed hikes to be modest.  Investors won’t mind that, preferring a hike and Fed tightening to more inflation.  Volume remains below average at 9.6 billion. 

Wall Street closes lower ahead of inflation data, Fed meeting

The Dow was the only index today to make it at all in the black but lost even that much by close.  The Nasdaq took a much bigger hit as investors took profits after a 3 day relief rally and flocking back to cyclicals. One bit of good news is that new unemployment claims came in at their lowest in 52 years, though economists point to current labor market figures as misleading due to the large numbers who have dropped out of the market.  Today’s selloff was also likely due to caution preceding Friday’s CPI inflation data.  Will the Fed be doing a rate hike next year or not?  Volume was below average at 9.7 billion. 

Wall St closes higher as vaccine update feeds optimism

The Dow spent most of the day heavily in the red until the late news of the Pfizer vaccine offering protection against Omicron triggered a comeback and a close modestly in the black. And it became another risk-on day with investors continuing the migration back to tech, favoring quality growth stocks over cyclicals. The market now believes that it won’t take much to tame inflation and thus any coming rate hikes are likely to be modest, which provided another boost to equities. The S&P, falling 4.4% during Thanksgiving week due to the Omicron panic has today regained almost all its lost ground, being now less than one point below the pre-panic close.  With the positive vaccine news, the S&P travel stocks were the biggest gainers.  Volume was a little below average at 10.3 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher with Nasdaq boosted by tech rally

It was another high flying day as investors got some relief from Omicron anxiety with some additional reassuring remarks from Dr. Fauci.  This time all three indexes got a big boost as good pandemic news from drugmaker GSK sent everyone flying back to tech but relief continued to flow into the Dow cyclicals as well and the VIX went down almost 50% to its lowest reading since October 6^th after last week’s 10 month high.  Leisure and airline stocks rose but semiconductors got the biggest boost.  And a really big boost for GSK and Vir Biotech when they announced a new drug therapy effective against Omicron. At just under 11.4 billion, volume was once again very close to the 4-week average. 

Wall Street regains some ground with help from easing virus fears

It was another big day of gains with investors continuing to flock back to the cyclical and sensitive stocks on optimism from Dr. Fauci  that Omicron “does not look like there’s a great degree of severity to it.”  The Dow jumped 646 points and has now regained most of the ground lost during last week’s Omicron panic.  The S&P is now just 2.3% below where it was before the panic struck.  Value (the blue chip cyclicals) is again outperforming growth (tech.)  The hope is that if the cyclicals continue to do well it will boost confidence in the rest of the market. But the best indicator that the panic is behind us is that volume, for once, is close to the 4-week average at 11.9 billion. 

7 Best Cyclical Stocks to Buy Now

Since the cyclical stocks are the ones that took off this week (after such a dunking all the indexes recently had) I thought I'd share this latest issue of U.S. News Invested detailing the 7 cyclicals that they most highly recommend.  They're all solid and, by clicking on the link at the bottom, you'll see the entire write-up with detail on each stock.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

Making It On Wall Street + Niall Ferguson

As we approach the holiday, this week's edition of WealthTrack seems particularly appropriate. The first half of the program focuses on the rare breed (11%) of Wall Street managers who are women and how they got there. The second half provides some historical perspective as the first of a 2-part interview with Niall Ferguson who has authored 16 books on money and investing, focusing on what history has to teach us about geopolitical and economic risks covering many centuries and culminating in the current pandemic crisis.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Nasdaq dives over 2% as tech stocks slide at end of volatile week

It was another Omicron panic-driven day with the Dow down some 500 points (and the S&P down proportionately) until the final hour when everything rebounded and all but tech closed with only modest losses.  But everyone fled tech today with the major players all falling and the rest of the sector falling with them on fears of a more aggressive Fed and everyone taking on the more tradition cyclical stocks near the session’s end.  Payrolls increased less than expected but wages increased and unemployment reached an almost two year low point.  All in all, the positive data suggested a very strong economy which is the reason cyclicals became more attractive and the Fed is considering a wind-down which in turn pulled investors away from tech.  We were back to abnormally high volume again at 14.0 billion. 

Wall Street ends higher in robust rebound from Omicron-driven rout

My oh my what a rollercoaster we’re on. Panic over Omicron caused the big crash last Friday, then relief over same caused the rally on Monday.  More major panic Tuesday and Wednesday but today everyone thinks things are going to okay after all and thus another huge rally as investors pick up bargains.  Most of the rush was back into the cyclical sectors shooting the Dow up 617 points with the airlines index, industrials, energy and financials reaping the biggest gains.  Friday’s employment report, as always, is hotly awaited, and expected to be good news. The Dow had its best day since March 5^th. Another sign that the panic is subsiding is that volume at 12.8 billion, though still above average, is nonetheless way below the huge numbers we’ve seen in the last few sessions. 

Wall St turns red as Omicron reaches the United States

The day actually got started with a boom with the Dow up some 500 points (as well as the other indexes) due to a generous amount of positive economic data.  Then the Omicron fears set in again and, with the CDC announcing the first U.S. case surfacing in California, it was another huge rush to the exits and to safe haven investments like utilities which was the day’s only gainer.  Then Powell today reiterated his comments from yesterday that the spike in inflation will now likely endure through all of 2022.  The VIX climbed to its highest since February and the Dow closed below its 200 day moving average for the first time since July.  All in all, it was another major bath with corresponding huge volume at 14.2 billion.  The panic continues. 

Wall St closes lower as taper acceleration worries pile onto virus angst

Nothing but bad news today beginning with Fed Chair Powell laying out grim prospects for the latest COVID variant and for inflation. It was a major position shift that the variant means that inflation is no longer transitory and that tapering will likely be sooner than later.  This created a completely risk-off mood across the whole market with the Dow now down some 1400 points since Friday and the Nasdaq and S&P not faring much better.  The hawkish shift caught the market unawares and all that can be done now is waiting for more info on Omicron.  The major cyclical sectors all dropped between 2 and 3% with IT being the winner dipping less than 1%. The worst news – volume was huge at 16.1 billion suggesting, after yesterday’s relief rally, that a major panic is back in the works.  We can’t blame quadruple witching this time. 

Wall Street rebounds after virus-linked sell-off

Today’s expert summed it all up nicely, “Friday was a major de-risking event. The Omicron panic is easing and we’re into a period of wait-and-see.”  So there was a considerable bounce back today, especially in tech, though the Dow did recover roughly a quarter of Friday’s huge losses but the bottom line is that the panic that so consumed the market on Friday seems to already be abating.  There were reassuring words from both Biden and the vaccine makers. And the semiconductor index outperformed everyone else with a 4% gain. But as another expert put it, “It’s not like the start of the pandemic all over again. Just take a deep breath, try to reassess, be a little more patient.” Let’s hope that attitude continues.  Volume was a little above average at 11.1 billion. 

Visualizing the Pandemic, Jan 2020 – Nov 2021

I just love these animations. They show so clearly and graphically trends over time and this weekend it's been particularly timely.  So here I submit an animation showing the rise and fall over and over again of the pandemic from Day One until now.  These trends also of course coincide with equally dramatic events in the stock market.  And given the very dramatic events on Friday with the market crashing due to the new emerging variant in South Africa, tomorrow will be particularly telling. Will investors have digested the news by then and start picking up bargains, or will the panic continue and the indexes slide even more?  There's more suspense here than in a Hitchcock film.  Stay tuned.  

7 Oversold Tech Stocks to Buy

Considering the shellacking the markets took yesterday, I found either highly ironic or highly timely that U.S. News Invested published these recommendations yesterday, an article that was certainly written before the big plunge. Anyway, if we're looking for bargains to pick up in this big slump, these all look like good candidates.  Enjoy the snowy weekend.  

Stocks tumble on new coronavirus variant fear

Wow what a trouncing we got on this Black Friday, truly black as the Dow dropped over 900 points on still another big COVID scare from South Africa which bashed all global markets today. The clock has once again been turned back to March of 2020, when the first lockdown began. This time panic comes from a new variant that MAY be vaccine-resistant, though there remains considerable study to be done before this is validated. But as they always do ahead of the curve, the markets have reacted to a potentially fearful future. The VIX hit its highest point in two months. The one big bright spot: these numbers may be exaggerated due to the light holiday volume (9.1 billion.)  The one big dark spot:  without some good news over the weekend, we may see even worse come Monday. 

How to Talk to Your FoxNews Loving Relatives at Thanksgiving!

In the holiday spirit of thankfulness for all our many blessings, today's submission by Barry Ritholtz seemed particularly appropriate if we wish to include among those blessings our friends and family members, some of whom we may have political differences with. In view of the sad fact that the political divide in this country has kept family members apart and ended friendships, any sort of help along the lines of opening up dialogues and renewing injured ties should be welcome.  Please don't be put off by the title if you happen to be a Fox fan.  The advice given here can be taken on both sides.  Happy Thanksgiving!  

Wall Street ends higher; Nvidia surge offsets Nordstrom, Gap slide

The market was way down all morning, the Dow over 220 points, before recovering to near break-even and the Nasdaq gaining with Nvidia bouncing back after the big sell off Monday and Tuesday. The chipmaker is now up 150% for the year.  Other good news is jobless claims falling and Q3 GDP revised upwards. U of M’s survey showed consumer confidence is up in November. But COVID spikes in Europe making it once again the global epicenter has put some brakes on the market.  Going into the holiday, volume was considerably below average at 8.9 billion. 

Nasdaq ends lower for second day as Big Tech loses ground

It was another day of rising Treasury yields prompting investors to flee interest-sensitive Big Tech and go back to value which bolted the Dow up another 194 points.  Or from another perspective, investors were taking profits from an overvalued growth market and being whipsawed by a shortened holiday week. The bank index jumped 2%, the energy index 3%, making it the day’s best performing sector.  As expected, business activity slowed moderately due to labor shortages and material delays. Best Buy got hit the worst, down 12% with weakened sales from supply chain issues. Volume was very close to the 4-week average at 11.3 billion. 

Nasdaq, S&P 500 end down after hitting record highs

With Treasury yields climbing, tech stocks took a big dive, but with the Fed retaining Powell and providing the market with a little much needed predictability, the value index climbed with the Dow eeking out a modest 17 point gain while the Nasdaq plummeted 202 points.  The market is nervous so Powell’s renomination was welcome with investors hoping for no big Fed changes.  With the rise in Treasury yields, the banks also rallied 2 percent. But the S&P is still ahead 25% for the year, the Nasdaq 23%.  Volume was a tad above average at 11.6 billion. 

10 Stocks Warren Buffett Just Bought and Sold

For those of you who revere Warren Buffett as "The Oracle of Omaha," (or if you simply recognize him as an investing genius), I submit this week's issue of U.S. News Invested which summarizes his most recent activities on both sides of the ledger. Hope everyone enjoyed their weekend.  

AAII: Technical Analysis For Non-Technical Investors

For those of you who missed AAII's webinar earlier this month on "Technical Analysis for Non-Technical Investors," a link to a recording of the session is provided below.  It looks very informative.  And if you go to the AAII's YouTube channel, you will find recordings of a good many other of their webinars as well.  Hope everyone is enjoying the weekend.  

Nasdaq ends atop 16,000 mark for the first time on tech strength

With Europe moving towards another pandemic lockdown and Treasury yields falling, banking, energy and airline stocks took a big hit bringing the Dow down 268 points while the falling yields also boosted the tech sector with the Nasdaq rising 63.  But given all the positive data this month, as today’s expert put it, “It’s a normal time to take risk-off – just people take risk-off by going into safe havens.”  The good news – “All this week we’ve heard from retailers talking about the consumer coming back into the store.”  All this has validated earnings season and further clarifies that the recovery is on solid ground.  Volume came in just under 10.7 billion. 

S&P, Nasdaq end at record peaks on strong earnings

The retail sales reports continue to come in strong with Macy’s and Kohl’s surging and the consumer discretionary sector up 1.5% and the S&P retail index 2.8%, breaking its record peak for the third time this week.  Tech got a big boost by the superlative report from chipmaker Nvidia (up 8.2%) and pushing the semiconductor index up 1.8% to a second record close for the week. But inflation concerns kept the markets muted and even brought the Dow down 60 points. 

Wall Street ends lower as retailers stoke inflation fears

Yesterday the markets rallied because of all the good retail data that showed inflation was not impacting spending.  Today more good retail data reminded investors that inflation remains an issue and thus triggered a sell off.  So the exact same conditions that triggered yesterday’s optimism also sparked today’s pessimism.  And though inflation is at a 31 year high, the consensus remains that the supply chain issues would ease as COVID eases.  But conflicting comments from two Fed presidents created confusion and concern about the Fed’s intentions over raising interest rates.  With two more days of retail data to come this week, volume remains a tad below average at 10.6 billion. 

Retail boost helps lift S&P 500

All the indexes were up today on some very positive retail sales data released today giving the market a big relief that the retail outlook is rosy and that despite rising prices, consumer spending remains strong.  As today’s expert put it, “The supply chains are stressed but still we’re able to get goods on the shelves.”  Home Depot was the big winner beating Q3 sales estimates by nearly $2 billion and easily beating earnings estimates. Manufacturing output surged to a 2-1/2 year high in October helping investors put aside negative comments from the St. Louis Fed prez James Bullard. Tech got a big boost when BMW made a deal with Qualcomm to use its chips in their next-gen cars. As more retail data is filtering in later this week, volume remains a little below average at 10.5 billion. 

Wall Street ends little changed as rising yields weigh on tech

It was pretty much a nothing day with low volume and very little movement in the market as rising Treasury yields prompted investors to sit on the fence awaiting more inflation data. They’ll get a better sense of this with all the retailer reports due this week and retail sales data for October due Tuesday. The good news is that manufacturing in NY has surged to 30.9, way above October’s 19.8 and even way above the 21.2 forecast.  All three indexes had very shallow drops on volume of just under 9.6 billion. 

Dangerous Dividend Warning Signs -- AAII Webinar

It's time for another AAII webinar, this one coming this Wednesday at noon, this time on how to avoid high risk stocks that promise high dividends but don't necessarily deliver.  What are the warning signs that a high-yielding dividend stock may be entering too risky territory?  Tune in and find out.  As always, preregistration is required, a link provided  below.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

9 Best Green Stocks to Buy Now

For the environmentally conscious among you, I submit the latest issue of U.S. News Invested with their picks of the hottest green stocks to buy right now.  As always, more detail on each stock can be had by clicking on the link provided below.  Hope everyone is having a great weekend. Are we braced for our first snow tomorrow?  

Wall Street ends higher with boost from big tech

Days like today are the reason investing is so much fun since the market is sometimes quite unpredictable. Today there was a plethora of bad news that should have sent the indexes tanking but instead investors ignored it all and went on a buying spree regaining much of the week’s losses.  The main bad news was a very unexpected big drop in consumer sentiment sending it to a 10-year low and putting doubts on the holiday retail season. Since the biggest retailers will be reporting next week, all eyes will be glued to them. 

S&P closes little changed as chips boost Nasdaq in subdued holiday trading

It was a day of such subdued trading for the Veterans Day holiday that, as today’s expert put it, “Days like today are really hard to judge because you essentially have half the market closed. Specific company events are driving today’s markets.”  And that’s exactly what happened. A single company, Disney, brought the entire Dow down when they sank 7% on their news of shortfalls in streaming subscribers and theme park revenues.  But the drive back towards tech stimulated the Nasdaq a bit though the S&P ended up flat. The chip index gained almost 2 percent. The good news is that volume, at 9.6 billion, was low and thus, “there will be a lot more trading tomorrow so we’ll have to wait and see what happens.” 

Wall Street ends lower as economic data raises long-term inflation threat

For the second day the market took a bath. Yesterday it was profit-taking. Today it was fear when the CPI report came out and did not quell investor anxieties about inflation, rather showing it to have spiked to a 31 year high. It says the report “hinted” that the global supply chain crisis “could” be the cause. I think there’s no doubt at all that the supply chain is the cause and that is why the Fed has been consistent in its position that this is transitory. 

Wall Street losses end streak of record highs as inflation worry weighs on market

As today’s expert says, “We’ve had an incredible run, so letting some air out of the balloon is perfectly normal. It’s a reminder that stocks can’t go up every day.”  So today was a day of profit-taking after eight straight sessions of record highs for the S&P and Nasdaq.  Now all eyes will be on the CPI report Wednesday to gauge how the inflation issue is going. Tesla took still another hit today as there are questions whether Musk violated their SEC agreement. Volume was a tad above average at just a hair over 11 billion. 

Wall Street closes up on infrastructure gains but Tesla weighs

It was another record breaking day for all three indexes as the S&P and Nasdaq hit eight consecutive records and the Dow too hit a new record soaring 104 points on the passage of the infrastructure bill which will largely benefit the cyclical blue chip companies.  As today’s expert said, “Investors are looking at that [the bill] as a very good thing for equity markets.” 

7 of the Best ETFs to Buy for Long-Term Investors

For your Sunday consideration I submit Friday's edition of U.S. News Invested which recommends 7 of the best ETFs for investors.  As always, more detailed information on each ETF can be had by clicking on the link provided.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

REMINDER WEBINAR: Technical Analysis for Non-Technical Investors

My weekend duty this Saturday night is a reminder of the AAII November program "Technical Analysis For Non-Technical Investors," which will be held this Monday night, preregistration required. Since I'm one person who still finds technical investing somewhat of a mystery, I'm hoping that this webinar will bring some enlightenment to the cause.  Enjoy the weekend, it's a nice one. 

Wall St books records, weekly gains on strong jobs report, Pfizer COVID-19 pill cheer

All three indexes once again closed at record heights upon today’s jobs report showing employment increased more than expected last month with the Dow shooting up 203 points. Another big trigger was Pfizer’s new COVID drug which “looks like a true game changer for many industries” per today’s expert. Momentum continues and all the positive data is incentivizing investors to put more money into the market.  The cyclical sectors of energy and industrials were the leaders with only healthcare taking a hit with Pfizer’s competitors sinking from Pfizer’s good news. 440 Q3 reports are now in and the earnings forecast is up again, today to 41.5 percent.  Volume remains above average at 11.5 billion. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq extend record streaks, with boost from chip, growth shares

Getting a spurt from falling Treasury yields, the growth stocks that Nasdaq and the S&P represent rose to new records again for the sixth straight session while the more traditional cyclical stocks of the Dow took a bath, down over 150 points as late as 2:30 p.m. when the index suddenly surged back to near break-even.  420 Q3 reports are now in and the earnings forecast has been raised once again, this time to 41.2%, nearly a full point just since yesterday. More good news was that new unemployment claims were at the lowest in 20 months suggesting continuing momentum for the economy.  Volume was a full billion above average at 11.3 billion. 

Wall St record run rolls on after Fed unveils anticipated bond-buying 'taper'

It was another record breaking day with all 3 indexes reaching new highs. But for most of the day, the whole market was in the red, the Dow over 150 points down, until 2 pm when the Fed made its announcemt vis-à-vis the tapering, and happily told investors exactly what they expected and wanted to hear. The Fed will begin tapering but will hold off on rate hikes and remains bullish on both the job market and their position that current inflation is transitory. 360 companies have now submitted Q3 reports and earnings are now expected to be up 40.4% vs yesterday’s 40.2%.  So as has often been the case, the earnings forecast gets a boost almost every day. Volume was above average at 11 billion.   

Wall Street mints record highs, helped by strong earnings; Fed up next

The Dow did indeed pass the historic 36,000 mark today (and then some) with all the indexes up, boosted by a continuing very strong Q3. 320 companies have now reported and the earnings forecast has again been raised, today to 40.2 percent. But starting on Wednesday, and for the next days and weeks, investors will be carefully parsing Fed tapering policy. The good news is everyone’s expecting it so there should be no shocks and, as today’s expert points out, “markets are happiest when they get predictability.”  Volume was just a tad below the 4-week average at 10.2 billion. 

Wall Street hits records as Tesla surges; focus on Fed meeting

Today was another up day with the Dow passing the 36,000 mark in intraday trading for the first time in history, though it dropped a little below that by close. And the S&P today is up almost 23% for the year. The only bad but hardly surprising news is that manufacturing slowed confirming what we already knew that the supply chain crisis was constraining the economy. With over half of Q3 reporting in, earnings growth is at 39%, quite a hike from the 29% forecast a month ago. Investors are now eying the Fed’s plans for tapering the $120 billion monthly bond buying. Volume is just a tad above the 4-week average at 10.5 billion. 

12 Companies That Pay Monthly Dividends...

For your bonus this Sunday evening, I am forwarding on an email from Pro Trader Strategies that invites you to download a free booklet about 12 specific stocks that pay monthly dividends, for those of you who are interested in investing for income.  I have received a lot of emails from Pro Trader Strategies in the past but cannot recall if I ever clicked on their free links before. 

7 Safe Stocks To Buy With High Quality Ratings

Courtesy of this week's issue of U.S. News Invested, here is another short list of winning stocks right now that should fit any portfolio.  As always, for more detail on any of these stocks, click on the link provided.  Enjoy the weekend. At tomorrow should be nice.  

Wall Street shakes off Amazon, Apple weakeness to end modestly higher

The indexes spent much of the day in the red due to very disappointing Q3 reports from Amazon and Apple, but thankfully offset by good news from Microsoft which not only bounced them back but even respectably in the black again. As today’s expert put it, “The takeaway is the resilience to the overall index despite 10% of the market cap in two companies and yet the market is flat” (actually up!)  

S&P, Nasdaq hit record closing highs on earnings bullishness

As has been the pattern for quite some time now, the market bounced back big time today as the concern over the flattening yield curve took a backseat to the gushing Q3 reports which has almost half of the S&P in with 82% beating estimates and the earnings growth forecast now raised to 38.6 percent. All three indexes got a big boost with the Dow gaining back almost as much as it lost yesterday.  One thing boosting confidence is the new consensus that Biden’s bill would not boost corporate taxes as much as feared.  Volume remains above average at just over 11 billion. 

Cyclicals drag S&P 500 lower; Microsoft, Alphabet keep Nasdaq flat

The combo of dropping oil prices and the flattening of the Treasury yield curve prompted investors to move money out of cyclicals and into the more reliable tech sector with the Nasdaq up over 120 points before crashing back down to break-even in the final hour of trading, and the Dow taking a hit of 266 points. Q3 reporting continues swimmingly with 192 companies reporting and 83% beating estimates, prompting the Q3 earnings forecast to once again be bumped up, today to 37.6 percent. Volume was again above average at 11.7 billion. 

Wall Street closes at record but Facebook weighs

It was a day of taking a breath as more Q3 reports come in with Facebook in particular being a disappointment, but then that’s something that everyone certainly saw coming.  And even though the indexes didn’t move much, there was still a very small upward motion that sent the Dow and S&P to still new records.  The good news is that consumer confidence rebounded and new home sales surged but this also pointed to too much good data that might impact the Fed’s policies.  So there was also some caution reflected in the defensive sectors. Volume was considerably above average at 12.3 billion.  

S&P 500, Dow close at new highs as Facebook starts heavy earnings week

As we enter one of the heaviest Q3 reporting weeks both the Dow and S&P reached new highs and another big boost into tech raised the Nasdaq just 1% away from its record. With 1/3 of the S&P now reporting and 83% topping forecasts, earnings estimates are now expected to grow by 34.8 percent. For the second day, volume is above the 4-week average at 10.9 billion. 

Maximize Your Money Monday

To conclude the weekend, here's a final reminder of a new AAII webinar Monday afternoon at 3 pm. where the offering will be the Platinum Open House, a sneak peek at AAII's new member benefit AAII Platinum.  As always preregistration is required and can be done by clicking the link below. Also a reminder of the October 25th of PRISM.  Hope everyone is bracing for a soggy week.  Hope nobody gets flooded. We've had quite enough of that this summer for one lifetime.  

Seismic Shifts: Perspectives On Inflation

This week's guest on PBS' WealthTrack is Jason De Sena Trennert, CEO of Strategas Research Partners and a financial thought leader named as one of the top macro research providers. This week he authored an editorial in The Wall Street Journal "Does the Fed Have the Will To Fight Inflation?"  The title would seem to suggest that he's challenging the Fed's position that the recent severe spike in inflation is transitory, a position many have doubts about. (I personally believe the Fed is right on the money on this one.) In this segment he discusses his perspectives on inflation and the Fed and it's likely to be different and one which will be useful to all of us.  Enjoy the weekend. 

Nasdaq, S&P 500 end lower, dragged down by communications services

It seems the supply chain problem is hitting the advertiser-dependent companies particularly hard and since the tech and communications companies are advertiser dependent, there was a rush out of tech today and back into cyclicals. It is the irony that despite the fact that the consumer has both the cash and desire to buy goods, if the goods cannot be delivered and therefore cannot be purchased, there’s no point in advertising so companies have severely curtailed their ad budgets. As today’s expert put it, “Advertisers are not going to advertise things they can’t sell.”  

S&P 500 climbs to record closing high; IBM weighs on the Dow

Wow, the Dow plunged over 150 points right out the gate but slowly recovered to close about even. Meanwhile, yesterday’s rush away from tech was followed by today’s rush to tech as the Nasdaq advanced 94 points and the S&P 13 as it became a mild risk-off day with defensive stocks dominating.  The VIX hit its lowest level since February 2020 (just before the start of the pandemic) implying that investors do not see a big decline coming and that supply chain problems and subsequent inflation are transitory.  More good news included a 19 month low in new unemployment claims. As confidence increases, volume is gaining but still a tad below the 4-week average at just under 10.1 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher as earnings reports soothe investor fears

It was another straight up day with the Dow especially benefitting from better than expected Q3 reporting.  The profits beating forecasts have eased some supply chain concerns as the companies are being successful passing the higher costs onto the customers, thereby maintaining their margins. 14% of the S&P is in with more than 85% beating expectations and pushing the Q3 earnings growth forecast now to 33 percent, from 29 a few weeks ago. Adding to the optimism was that the S&P Value Index, which has the economically sensitive stocks, was up nearly 1 percent.  As more Q3 reports pour in, volume remains below average at just under 9.3 billion. 

Wall Street ends higher as investors bet on positive earnings season

The market continued betting on a great Q3 as a great deal more companies roll out their reports this week.  Not only did the tech sector continue its boost but the more traditional healthcare and utilities sectors came back in a big way today after getting beaten down yesterday. The Dow shot up nearly 200, the S&P over 30.  There is still concern of another pullback, but that will depend entirely on how Q3 earnings go.  Yes, naturally, there will be a pullback if all this Q3 optimism proves to be misguided, but the prognosticators are betting otherwise. The VIX is at its lowest since August but that’s not stopping investors from continuing the “wait-and-see” as was evidenced by the still below average volume of 9.5 billion. 

S&P, Nasdaq enjoy boost from big tech firms, Dow ends a hair lower

After a rocky start with the Dow diving over 250 points right out the gate, it was a straight trajectory up as everyone rushed back into tech seemingly optimistic about Q3. The initial plunge was attributed to bad news from China which reported its slowest growth in a year, but the jitters that triggered were quickly put aside on hopes that a much more solid Q3 will be evident by the end of this week as by then there will be a much bigger slate of reports from a diverse set of industries.  Q3 earnings are now expected to show 32% growth over last year and there was more good news with the consumer discretionary sector being the biggest gainer showing that spending is still solid. The biggest decliners were in the defensive sectors which also pointed to optimism. As more Q3 filters in, volume remains on the down-low at 9.1 billion. 

9 of the Best Stocks for a Starter Portfolio

To close off this weekend, I thought I'd get back to basics and offer something for beginners. This week's edition of U.S. News Invested fit the bill perfectly with a suggested starter portfolio that can't miss. As always, more detail on each company can be found by clicking on the link provided below. Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

A $500 Bonus: 10 highest paid jobs in financial advice

When I got this week's issue of Investment News in my email this morning, I thought it'd be fun to share it for anyone who's curious as to what salaries investment professionals command. It's a gift since just yesterday info on the top 25 jobs was offered in another email for the bargain price of just $500.  (And you will see that same offer at the bottom of this one.) Today they offered for free summary info on the top ten jobs.  So for those who are curious ... I'll just say that, for being top jobs, I was frankly surprised at how few of them had CFP, CFA, and Series 7 designations which everyone I know in the industry had to get (especially Series 7) in the first year or two after hiring in at entry level.  Hope everyone is enjoying this nice crisp fall weekend.  

Wall St ends up with Goldman; Dow posts biggest weekly rise since June

For a third day there’s been a big rally with 8% of the S&P now putting in their Q3 reports and especially the banking sector coming out glowing. Despite higher prices and supply chain problems, September had a surprise rise in retail sales to boost optimism about holiday shopping. Q3 is certainly fueling the rise but as today’s expert put it, “We’ll really see the results in the next couple of weeks as a great bulk of companies in all sectors report.”  So “wait-and-see” continues, which was reflected in the still below average volume of 9.8 billion, but as the expert said, the next couple of weeks will probably tell all and get people off the fence. Or back on it longterm. But if past quarters are any indicator, it will be the former. 

S&P 500 surges, biggest daily percentage rise since March on earnings, data

Morgan Stanley, United Health, Citigroup, and Bank of America among others turned in stellar Q3 reports today and that sent all three indexes rocketing up, the S&P to its biggest daily percentage gain since March. Other good news included unemployment claims falling to a 19 month low and producer prices easing suggesting COVID-driven inflation may have peaked. As Q3 reporting is just now starting, volume remains considerably below average at just under 9.3 billion as investors continue to “wait and see.” 

S&P 500, Nasdaq rise with growth stocks; JPMorgan a drag

The market took a big dive right out the gate, the Dow down almost 300 points by 10 a.m., then rebounded throughout the session to close near even while investors simultaneously rushed back into the Big Tech growth stocks boosting the Nasdaq by 105 points.  As yet another example of market irrationality, JP Morgan took a hit of 2.6% even though its Q3 earnings beat estimates. Today was the first day of Q3 reporting and, though strong profit growth is expected and as is usually the course, volume remains well below average as investors retain their wait-and-see positions. 

Wall Street ends lower on jitters ahead of earnings, Fed minutes

It was another day of jitters over upcoming Q3 earnings reports but at least the market came down less than half of what it did yesterday.  The Fed minutes coming Wednesday added to the caution and though Q3 is widely expected to come in strong, investors are taking a wait-and-see approach until more data is forthcoming. The good news, as today’s expert put it, is that the “negative impact of shortages, higher rates and supply chain bottlenecks are currently reflected where equity prices are now.”  The labor market remains tight with a record number of Americans quitting their jobs and over 10 million job vacancies.  Volume is again considerably below the 4-week average at just under 9.2 billion. 

Wall St ends choppy session lower on earnings jitters; financials down

The market was actually up much of the day and then sank quickly and deeply in the late afternoon which can only be explained by nerves over how supply chain problems might impact Q3 profits.  This is in spite of the fact that Q3 is forecasted to be up 30% from last year.  Today’s expert could only sum it up by saying, “The market is a bit cautious going into this earnings season.”  When has the market ever not been cautious going into earnings season?  And, at least for the past couple of years, when has the forecast ever been anything but understated, sometimes grossly understated?  But following the very rough September, nerves are frayed.  And the caution is reflected in the way below average volume of just over 8.1 billion. 

Introducing the PRISM Wealth-Building Process Academy

This coming Wednesday evening, the AAII will be hosting a virtual seminar on a new tool being offered to members called the PRISM Wealth-Building Process Academy.  Charles Rothblut will be making the presentation to show us how to get started and take maximum advantage of this new benefit.  As always, pre-registration is required.  For those of you employed by the government or the financial services industry, enjoy the remainder of this holiday weekend.  For the rest of you, back to work tomorrow, hope you had a great weekend.  

7 of the Best Performing ETFs in Q3

Okay, once again for your weekend perusal is the latest issue of U.S. News Invested with some more practical tips -- this time about the best ETFs to buy right now.  The summary is below. By clicking on the link, you'll get more details.  Enjoy the weekend.  

S&P 500 ends lower after U.S. September jobs miss

How can two employment reports be so completely different? On Wednesday the market was way up because the private payrolls report showed 33% more jobs created than was forecasted. Today the market, after being up a hundred points or more, came crashing down when the nonfarm payrolls report came in below – way below --  forecasts with less than half the jobs created than expected and the fewest new jobs in nine months. Despite this, unemployment fell and wages rose. Continuing very serious supply chain issues are expected to create a choppy Q3 reporting season which begins next week.  Volume was considerably below average at 9.2 billion. 

Wall Street ends day with solid gains; investors hail U.S. debt-ceiling truce

For the third straight day we have a triple-digit rally with Big Tech roaring back as investors continue to ride the wave of optimism over the debt ceiling and the resurging recovery with today’s jobless benefits coming in at their lowest in three months.  It is expected that employment will continue to ramp up and, with Q3 reporting starting next week, earnings are estimated to rise by nearly 30%.  Volume again was a little below average at 10.1 billion. 

Wall Street ends higher on optimism about U.S. debt-ceiling deal

It was a second day of buying pushing all three indexes up on the optimism over avoiding a debt default as McConnell signaled he would accept a deal for an extension. Other than that, the private payrolls report showing 32% more jobs added than forecasted dampened enthusiasm by signaling that things might be going well enough for the Fed to rein in stimulus. As always, Friday’s non-farm payrolls report is the one that will count. Volume again was just a little below average at 10.6 billion. 

Wall Street closes sharply higher as Big Tech roars back

In this on-again, off-again market, the pendulum swung to on-again today as Big Tech made a Big Comeback, the S&P coming back almost halfway from yesterday, now 3% below the September high rather than 5 percent. As today’s expert summed it up, “We’re buying the dip, but the dip isn’t 10% anymore. The dip is now 2% or 4%.”  Wednesday the Senate will vote on the debt ceiling and Friday will come the September employment report. And you can bet there will be more dips and more buying the dip as we proceed.  Volume was a little below average at 10.3 billion. 

Nasdaq ends sharply down; rising Treasury yields sink Big Tech

With Treasury yields rising, something seen to hurt Big Tech, investors moved out of the Nasdaq today and the frets over the debt ceiling took care of the flight from the other indexes. But as today’s expert optimistically put it, “This is a part of the correction process. Rates were clearly too low and are moving closer to their real value.” The Nasdaq closed at its lowest since July and the S&P has slumped 5% from its record high a month ago.  Volume was a little above the 4-week average at 11.1 billion. 

Top Tips and Takeaways From the AAII Investor Conference 360

To close out another weekend, once again there is a virtual AAII seminar coming up this coming Wednesday at 8:30 p.m.  The topic is one that should interest everyone: The Best of This Year's AAII Conference. As always, preregistration is required and a link for that is below. Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

Evergrande Extravaganza and Beyond

If you're like me and most of the rest of us, you never heard of Evergrande prior to the last couple of weeks when it started roiling the markets. So I offer this week's edition of WealthTrack as Wall Street wiz James Grant explains it all.  He's been tracking Evergrande for four years and predicted that the very high flying company could turn in to another Hindenburg.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Wall Street kicks off October with gains, boosted by economic optimism

After yesterday’s bath, it was another broad rally today as the first day of Q4 started off with a bang. Bolstering optimism was the new Merck drug for COVID and Biden signing the stop-gap bill.  There was also increased consumer spending and factory activity, both of which point to more recovery and also more inflation, all reflected in value stocks once again outperforming growth. And there was the latest Fed pronouncement with the Philly prez saying the tapering should begin soon but no rate hikes until at least late 2022.  Volume was a little above average at just over 11 billion. 

Wall St slides, S&P 500 posts worst month, quarter since COVID outbreak

Okay, it was another big bath today as the markets were once again wracked by inflation fears and the budget wrangling in Washington. Since it was announced late yesterday that the Congress had reached a stopgap agreement to keep the government open until December, I expected a rally today. Not only did that not happen but, even after the bill was passed late this afternoon, the indexes only momentarily rallied before diving again, as we end the month with the worst numbers since early 2020 when the pandemic first hit. 

S&P 500, Dow gain amid inflation concerns, debt ceiling debate

The market came back a bit today with Fed Chair Powell commenting on continuing inflation. Yesterday, inflation spooked the market, but today taken as reassurance against too soon tapering. But the real issue keeping the market down is the debt ceiling debate going on in Congress as a shutdown looms on Friday unless there’s an agreement by then. A potential U.S. credit default is a scenario the markets don’t even want to think about.  With nerves fraying, volume remains above average at 11.4 billion. 

Wall Street swoons on rising Treasury yields, growing inflation worries

The indexes all took another real bath today. The markets are so funny, but I guess that’s what makes all this so interesting.  Just yesterday investors rallied over rising Treasury yields since they signaled confidence in the recovering economy.  Today those same rising yields sent everyone to the exits due to heightened inflation worries that are seen to hurt the big tech companies.  And tech took a huge hit today; in fact all the indexes dipped 2% or more with the Nasdaq heading for its biggest monthly decline in a year. 

Tech pulls Nasdaq, S&P 500 down as Treasury yields rise

Tech took another hit but cyclicals got a boost with the Dow up 71 points on the positive data of Treasury yields rising, indicating investor confidence in the recovery, and new orders for durable goods rising to a pre-pandemic seven-year high, again punctuating optimism in the recovery. The tech market leaders Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Apple all took a hit. The S&P value index has been struggling against the tech index all year but has narrowed the gap this month as it continues to grow but may soon be snapping seven months of gains. Volume was a little above average at 10.3 billion. 

Best Stock Research Websites 2021

Every now and then I stumble upon an article that just contains some good old-fashioned useful information and this week that information came from a financial service called Gorilla Trades which published this article rating and evaluating the best stock research sites.  

Financial Risk Management 101

An investor can never get too much of an education on risk management and this week's WealthTrack program on PBS tackles this critical subject with a primer presented by Rick Bookstaber, one of Wall Street's top risk officers, having been the Top Gun for the University of California's huge network of pension and endowment funds as well as behemoths like Morgan Stanley and Salomon Brothers. It should be a terrific 24 minute review.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Wall St near even, dragged by Nike 6% drop after warning

After two days of intense rallies the markets took a breath today and traded near break-even.  The sentiment seems to be that there is “a pronounced trend toward recovery in the market” and as today’s expert put it, “There’s plenty of things to worry about but, bottom line, short-term rates make putting your money in cash unattractive, and bonds seem riskier at these levels than stocks.” Evergrande missed its interest payment deadline but the markets seem to be shrugging this off now.  Volume remains below average at 9.0 billion. 

Indexes close up more than 1% as investors assess Fed news

It was another big rally today as investors continued digesting yesterday’s Fed statement and feeling relieved that it was not going to be nearly as draconian as feared. The markets no longer seem concerned over Evergrande which announced that the debt payments would be made even though the actual investors very much doubt it. Nonetheless, compared to a couple days ago when a default seemed to threaten a global depression, those fears have now gone. Even bad reports of sluggish business activity and a rise in jobless claims could not keep buyers at bay as it was all expected. After three days of the S&P below the 50-day MA, today it was above and has now recouped half of its recent losses.  The 3 day breach was the first since March. Volume is still a little below average at 9.8 billion. 

Wall St ends higher as Fed signals bond-buying taper soon

Even though the Fed issued a statement today that rate hikes and tapering may be sooner rather than later, all the indexes bounced back today, mostly due to consensus that tapering may not be nearly as aggressive as feared.  Evergrande has been negotiating with its bondholders and says it has a deal to make the interest payments that are due on Thursday. The S&P has regained 25% of the losses from the last few weeks.  Volume was a little below average at 9.9 billion. 

Wall Street ends near flat on cautious note ahead of Fed

The Dow was up nearly 350 points in the morning indicating that investors were already shrugging off the impending default of China’s Evergrande. Then it started gradually sinking again with all three indexes closing at about break-even. If Wednesday’s Fed meeting goes as expected, it should calm the markets again. Meanwhile, having never heard of Evergrande before yesterday, I took a quick look at their numbers for the last 11 years and what popped right off the page was their enormous debt. After that there was their extraordinarily thin profit margins which have shrunk 90% in the last ten years.  

Wall Street ends sharply lower in broad sell-off

There was a sharp downturn in all the indexes today which at least in this Reuters report is attributed to the feared collapse of the Chinese company Evergrande and that it might bring the entire global market down. (Am I the only one who's never heard of Evergrande before today?) There’s also the usual nerves over Wednesday’s Fed meeting but I guess the best analysis came from today’s expert at Wells Fargo, “I guess it’s the China news but it’s not altogether surprising given how bullish people were.” In other words, it’s a fragile market and any scary event can bring it all down. 

4 Growth Stocks, 4 Value Stocks to Buy

Given the current market reality that there are swings on practically a daily basis between value and growth (value on the days recovery looks good, growth when it doesn't), this week's edition of U.S. News Invested seems to be just what the doctor ordered.  To be properly diversified, buy both.  And here is a list of the best of each.  Hope everyone enjoyed this beautiful weekend.  More of the wet stuff on the way this coming week.  

The Ugly Truth Most Trading Gurus Don't Want You To Know!

Markus Heitkoetter has a website I occasionally check on (and anyone can check on it just by signing up for his occasional emails). The email I received this week was too good not to share, a link to a 15 minute YouTube video that talks about all the characteristic differences between good traders and bad traders, I think well worth a look.  He also gives a bit of a review on Turtle Trading, plus several useful links.  Enjoy the rest of the weekend.  

Wall Street closes rollercoaster week sharply lower

It was risk-off today as all three indexes took a major dive in the face of the week’s difficulties (tax hike worries, Delta, Fed tapering etc) as today’s Consumer Sentiment data came in weak, validating that Delta could slow growth. (Amazing that in the last two days sentiment was exactly the opposite.)  The obvious problem of course, as reported by the University of Michigan, is that Americans are postponing purchases until inflation calms down, not at all unreasonable, and certainly not something that was unforeseen. Materials and utilities, ordinarily considered the safe sectors, took the biggest hit. The good news is that, due to triple witching, nothing that happened today can be taken as anything but fiction as all data and the reactions thereto get grossly exaggerated. That also explains the enormous increase in volume to 15.5 billion.  We’ll find out on Monday what really happened.  (Knowing that this witching effect takes place each quarter, I’m always amazed that the genius analysts on Wall Street aren’t able to back out of these distortions and tell us what happened. Why do we always have to wait until Monday?)  

S&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data

It’s funny how on Yahoo News they blame today’s tepid market performance on disappointing data. Perhaps the article was written too early in the day as the indexes were taking a big bath in the morning but then, as Reuters reports, the  retail report showed robust consumer spending keeping the economy growing, and   it all came back with only modest losses at close. The consensus is that the fears of a “massive slowdown in the economy is not materializing.” Volume was close to the 4-week average at just under 9.4 billion. 

Wall Street gains as crude price surge, strong economic data prompt broad rally

It was another big buying day sending all three indexes soaring, the Dow up 236 points. More data is showing that inflation has peaked and the recovery remains robust.  The good news is that everyone is moving back to cyclicals, the best indicator of confidence in the recovery. But today something unusual happened.  Growth stocks did well too, the best indicator that investors are ready to take on more risk. No volume data was included in any Reuters reports today but, per the CBOE, 10.2 billion shares traded hands. 

U.S. stocks close lower on worries over recovery, corporate tax hikes

Yesterday, despite bad news (the likely corporate tax hike), the market zoomed up, maybe because it was a bargain hunt. Today, despite good news (the CPI and Fed both confirming that inflation was not as bad as feared and is likely transitory), the market took a dive, maybe because it took a day for the tax fears to sink in. Or, as today’s expert put it, “the market is simply ready to go through an overdue correction.”  All three indexes dove, the Dow 292 points, and the S&P is down nearly 2% this month but still up 18% for the year. (And the good news about the corporate tax hikes is that they are likely going to be less than feared.)  Volume was again close to a billion above recent averages at just over 10 billion. 

S&P 500 snaps losing streak with tax hikes, inflation data on horizon

Despite the bad news about an expected corporate tax hike with the new budget, investors rushed back into the market today snapping losing streaks on both the Dow and S&P, the Dow hiking 261 points.  The move back to cyclicals typically means recovery optimism but the real test comes tomorrow with the consumer price index report and later still with retail sales and consumer sentiment. Or, because of the drop in the last week, could this just be investors picking up bargains? Regardless, there was a lot of activity today with volume being a good billion above recent averages at 10.3 billion. 

Gold & DeFi: A Conversation

We haven't talked about gold for quite a while so I couldn't resist when I found this article Friday on the Big Picture web site in which my guru Barry Ritholtz makes a pretty strong argument against using gold as an investment. I still agree that any sound portfolio should have between 5 and 10% precious metals (and gold is my favorite precious metal) in it as a hedge, but he provides an interesting different perpsective.  It's a short article (though after reading it, I still don't know what he means by DeFi) and for once the graphics translated in the copy and paste so you don't need the link, though I provided it anyway.  Hope everyone enjoyed the weekend.  

‘Guaranteed income’ preferred over ‘annuities’

For your weekend reading, I submit the following short article that I resurrected from last month's "Investment News" regarding annuities. I've never been a big fan of annuities even though most every senior I know has one and loves it. They love the guarantee that they will never lose a cent and they love the absolute guarantee of an income stream the annuity will give them the rest of their life, income they can completely depend on. 

Wall Street ends down, Apple sinks on app store ruling

For a fifth consecutive session investors have taken flight, today triggered by an unfavorable court decision on Apple, the biggest gain in producer prices in 11 years, and the Cleveland Fed prez casting more doubts on the dreaded tapering. But no worries says today’s expert. “The market is taking a breather,” evidenced by the fact that most of the losses were in the last two hours. But today’s losses even extended into the safer defensive sectors of utilities and real estate. In fact, they were the top decliners, losing more than 1% each.  For the week, all three indexes lost between 1.6 and 2 percent each. The S&P is still up 19% for the year. Volume was above average at 10 billion. 

Wall Street ends down after jobless claims hit 18-month low

A good jobless claims report sent investors back into worry mode over whether the Fed will scale back the accommodative policies after all and thus triggered an exodus in all three major indexes, including the Dow with its cyclicals that are supposed to be the best bet when we see signs of an improved recovery. Of course, it’s no secret that the hindrance in job growth is due to labor shortages and not cooling demand but that seemed to make little difference. As today’s expert put it, “The problems with the market these days is it’s rotating more than it’s moving.” Volume was a little above average at 9.3 billion. 

Wall Street ends lower, weighed down by Big Tech

Today even the so-called bullet-proof tech, the sector that just yesterday the experts were saying “don’t have your reopening worries,” could not save the market from being spooked about the economy’s uncertainty as all three of the major indexes took a hit.  Today our expert is saying, “Investors are pulling petals from a daisy – the economy will grow, the economy won’t grow.”  I think this guy is right.  And St. Louis Fed prez Bullard threw another monkey wrench in the works by saying the Fed should move forward and trim the pandemic stimulus.  The Dow and S&P took the smallest hits but it was nothing less than panic on tech with an 87 point drop in the Nasdaq.  Volume was a little above average at 9.5 billion. 

S&P 500 ends down, Big Tech lifts Nasdaq to record

With Morgan Stanley cutting its rating on the entire U.S. stock market to “underweight” and warning that the next two months could be “bumpy,” there was a mass exodus from cylclicals and back to tech which as today’s expert put it with the uncertainty over COVID, “you don’t have your reopening worries about those [tech] companies” sending the Dow and S&P down and the Nasdaq to another new record. Still, the S&P remains at a 20% gain YTD and the Nasdaq at 19.  And as we are just three weeks away from the end of Q3, the first forecast is out – a 30% increase in earnings vs the 96% from Q2.  Now let’s patiently wait over the next weeks and months as we see that projection steadily increase, as it always does.  Volume was right in line with the 4-week average at 9.2 billion. 

Why America has 8.4 million unemployed when there are 10 million job openings

Happy Labor Day!  I thought it most appropriate, in light of Labor Day, to share this very insightful 2500 word analysis from last week's Washington Post as to the current labor market situation and how we evolved towards this odd situation of 8.4 million unemployed amidst a market with 10 million openings. 

EMERGING ESG INCOME OPPORTUNITIES

For your Sunday night viewing pleasure I give you this week's edition of PBS' WealthTrack which once again explores the so-called ESG (Environment, Social, Governance) niche of the market for those who are socially conscious about their investments. Consuelo interviews Kristin Ceva who examines the ESG sector in terms of the opportunities it presents relative to buying debt in emerging markets.  

BEST INCOME STRATEGIES IN A LOW-YIELD ENVIRONMENT

For this weekend I am posting the next big Eastern Michigan AAII chapter webinar entitled "Best Income Strategies in a Low Yield Environment" to be presented September 28th at 7 pm by Marvin Appel, Ph.D.  As usual, preregistration is required and a link to do so is at the bottom of the post.  Have fun with it.  

Tech drives Nasdaq to record finish but Wall Street mixed on jobs report

With a disappointing jobs report with just 235K new jobs added vs an estimate 750K, investors rushed back into tech which, as today’s expert put it “has become bullet-proof. It’s the anti-COVID sector” and once again out of cyclicals with the sentiment that Delta is indeed having a negative impact on the labor economy and sending the Dow down 74 points. With the labor market being key for the Fed, it meant the Fed would likely further hold on the timing of tapering, which the market wants.  Yet there is some skepticism that perhaps the Fed has erred and that possibility is being priced in, quite a change from yesterday when the experts expressed great confidence in the Fed.  Volume was a little below average at just under 8.4 billion. 

S&P, Nasdaq edge to record closes, energy stocks buoyant

With unemployment claims falling last week, investors were once again reassured that the recovery was going on schedule and thus there was a little pullback from tech as everyone jumped back into cyclicals and boosted the Dow 131 points. Regardless, all three indexes ended in positive territory which put both the S&P and Nasdaq close to records again. The most persistent issue remains whether any of these new reports might impact the Fed’s timing on tapering but the general consensus is that the Fed is doing a good job communicating its intentions. Volume was a little above average at 9.2 billion. 

Tech stocks send Nasdaq to fresh record close, boost S&P

Today was pretty much a repeat of Tuesday with the markets continuing to take a breather and moving only modestly with investors pulling a little more out of cyclicals and a little more into tech with the good news from Jackson Hole about continuing low interest rates.  But two defensive sectors, real estate and utilities, still came out on top.  Disappointing data today was far less hiring in August than expected and factory employment at a nine month low. Good news is that manufacturing activity picked up which sort of contradicts the low factory employment numbers. But it does point to a critical issue – everyone will be watching carefully next week’s report on job openings.  Volume was above average at 9.8 billion. 

Wall Street's subdued finish fails to detract from strong August

The market took a breather today after Monday’s terrific excitement over Jackson Hole, dipping a hair but nowhere near enough to even dent the S&P’s 3% gain in August capping seven straight months of gains. But the skeptics were back today with a new Reuters poll showing that the S&P is unlikely to rise much further in 2021, quite a change from Monday’s forecast which ended the year at 11 percent. Tech stocks are expected to continue to do great as long as the Fed’s commitment to low interest rates holds true. For once, and now that Jackson Hole is behind us, volume was above average at 9.8 billion. 

S&P, Nasdaq post record closes on dovish Fed taper-talk

Powell said it loud and clear today – no rush to raise interest rates. The economy will continue to enjoy an extraordinary amount of support. This completely delighted the markets with everyone rushing back to the tech stocks that will benefit from lower rates and shooting the S&P and Nasdaq to new records. It was the 4^th record in 5 sessions for the S&P and the 5^th in 6 for the Nasdaq. The S&P has risen 3% in August and is expected to go to 11% by year end. With the risk-on mood sending everyone to tech, the Dow took a mild 55 point hit. One more market day in August to see if the S&P stays at 3 percent. Volume was just a tad below average at 8.7 billion. 

QUALITY INVESTING

And now for another video night as I present this week's episode of WealthTrack featuring an interview with Lawrence Cunningham, law professor at George Washington Unversity and one of the world's foremost authorities on Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway, having even coauthored a book with Buffett, among other classic best sellers on value investing.  Enjoy.  It looks like this hot summer heat may finally be over and we're in for a beautiful week.  

Retire on a Home Run, First Cut REIT Stocks, Level3 Update

For your consideration this weekend I submit below the next AAII webinar, this one entitled "Retire On a Home Run."  It is this coming Wednesday and registration is required so use the link below to sign up if interested. Tomorrow's another hot one so try to stay cool.  

S&P 500, Nasdaq nab all-time closing highs as Powell soothes taper fears

I was tempted to conclude yesterday’s remarks with the comment: “In terms of Jackson Hole, if the smart money turns out to be right and the hedge betters wrong, there’s going to be a big rally on Friday.”  And that’s exactly what happened. Without giving much detail on a timetable, Powell did exactly what the market wanted and maintained a dovish tone, certainly much moreso than other Fed officials. And with reports released Friday showing pullbacks in both consumer spending and sentiment due to Delta, the Fed is once again maintaining the status quo.  There is also the added assurance that recent price spikes will not translate into long term inflation.  Volume remains a tad below average at just under 8.7 billion. 

Wall Street closes lower, ending rally on Afghanistan, Fed concerns

Some experts believe the big sell off today was triggered by the chaos in Afghanistan but most believe the inciting incident was a hawkish comment from the Dallas Fed president who commented that tapering should begin in October. So a full week of confidence that the Fed will continue dovish policies went out the window, ironically on the word of a Fed official who has no vote on the matter.  But it created confusion and the market hates confusion. The good news is that a new GDP report shows that in Q2 the economy has now fully recovered from the most abrupt downturn in U.S. history. But when Jackson Hole convenes on Friday, everyone will be watching every word.  Volume remains a little below average at just under 8.3 billion. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq notch all-time closing highs ahead of Jackson Hole

As the day went, all three indexes went up in the morning, the Dow an impressive 140 points, the Nasdaq and S&P considerably less but still enough to make new records. Again, it was all optimism for Friday’s meeting in Jackson Hole where the expectation is that the Fed will vote to keep things status quo, not tighten policy. But then, almost as if to hedge bets that there might be a surprise on Friday, everything dropped, for the Dow to close up just 40 and the other two to close even more modestly but still enough for the S&P to notch its 51^st record for the year.  

Wall St advances, pushing S&P 500 to 50th record high close this year

Yesterday’s exuberance over higher vaccination rates spurring on the recovery now that full FDA approval is in hand spilled over into today with all the indexes ticking up and especially the S&P notching its 50^th record for the year, only the third time in history (’64 and ’95) the index accomplished that by August. The fact that the economically sensitive cyclicals outperformed the rest is further evidence of a broadened faith in the recovery. The consensus remains that economic data is strong but not so strong as to make the Fed dial back, which is what the markets want right now. Truth will be told at Jackson Hole in a couple days but the fact that the Fed symposium will be virtual is yet another message to the market that the economy continues to need support so policy will not be tightened. Volume was very close to average at just under 9 billion. 

Wall St gains, Nasdaq notches record closing high on full vaccine approval

Today’s full FDA approval of the vaccine boosted market sentiment as an indicator that the vaccination rate could now reach 75% boosting the recovery even more. The Dow leaped 215, the Nasdaq hit a new record up 227 and the S&P closed just shy of a new record itself. The best news is that new economic data today suggested the recovery was on the right path but not doing so well that the Fed would reverse course. And as today’s expert put it, “The fundamentals are in place. There’s worries out there, but it’s hard to keep this market down.”  Volume remains a little below average at 8.6 billion and this probably won’t change until after Jackson Hole.