Nasdaq surges on megacap earnings but U.S. fiscal uncertainty nags

Investors have been hedging their bets on good Q2 reports from the FAANG companies all week and today Apple, Amazon and Facebook delivered in spades.  “The results were just fabulous, just so strong,” said today’s expert. “These are extremely profitable companies and they produce products that people want.”  So even though positive expectations were already discounted in the market, the Dow rose another 114 due to even better than positive results. The downside today was the continuing bickering in the Congress over the new stimulus package which legislators failed to produce before the critical expiration of unemployment benefits at the close of session today. “The parties are very far apart and there is a lot of bad blood.”  And though COVID deaths have risen at their fastest rate since early June, investors are sufficiently optimistic about the future that the S&P has now been pushed to just 3.4% shy of its record high and its fourth consecutive month of gains.  Volume was slightly above recent averages at 10 billion. 

S&P dips on worries about earnings, data, stimulus and election

Another 3-digit drop on the Dow today as investors grapple with a whole slew of worrisome issues: Congress being no closer to a stimulus deal with unemployment benefits expiring tomorrow; GDP suffering its greatest contraction since the Great Depression; (it’s 8% annualized at 32% but considering almost the entire economy shut down, 8% is not that unreasonable.) Add to that jobless claims rising and Q2 anxieties, not to mention the turmoil that Trump caused by floating the idea of a delay in the election (gladly something Republicans and Democrats alike are vehemently against, not to mention he has no Constitutional authority to do so anyway), and there was plenty good reason to sell.  Everyone’s looking to the FAANG stocks now to save the week and, speaking of weeks, the indexes are heading for their fourth consecutive monthly gain.  (But to be fair, after the drubbing in March, they had no place to go but up.)   Volume was close to average at 10.1 billion. 

Wall St. closes higher after Fed vows more support for the virus-battered economy

Yesterday the gurus could not imagine anything the Fed could say today that would make any difference.  And, as they often are, they were wrong. This time the Fed didn’t have to do anything, anything that is except confirm the status quo.  And since the status quo happens to be the continuing accommodative policy of stimulus. It was enough for another 3-digit run-up given the assurances that they were putting health again right up front.  Adding to the run-up was also high confidence that the major FAANG stocks would turn in good Q2 reports this week.  The next area of concern is Washington’s foot dragging on the next stimulus package before the expiration of unemployment benefits on Friday. Another serious concern is a potential slowdown in business with several spiking states reimposing restrictions.  As investors await more news, volume was again a tad below recent averages at just under 9.8 billion. 

Wall Street falls as pandemic hurts consumer confidence and earnings; stimulus plan underwhelms

The Dow dove 205 points amid a flurry of bad news including yet another record one-day rise in Florida, Texas passing the 400k mark, disappointing Q2 and continued wrangling over the next stimulus package. This latter may be the most important since the recent market rise has been largely attributed to the first stimulus, an effect that will soon be gone. Despite the poor Q2 reports today, namely from 3M and McDonalds, 80% of reporting companies have thus far exceeded forecasts.  Just under 9.3 billion shares changed hands today. 

Wall Street rises as investors watch stimulus, pandemic and earnings

A 3-digit fall on Friday was followed by a 3-digit rise today as investors placed their bets on good Q2 reports from the 189 companies due to report this week and especially on expected good fortunes from the likes of Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet.  Meanwhile Republicans are racing to get the new stimulus package through ahead of the expiration of unemployment benefit extensions that happens Friday. Obvious concerns remain that the recovery will be slow and halting and that this smaller stimulus package may make it more slow and more halting. Meanwhile the S&P closed today just 4.3% below its February record high and of the 130 firms that have submitted Q2 reporting thus far, 80% have beaten estimates.  

Succinct Summations for the week ending July 24th, 2020 (Plus Safe Haven Investing on WealthTrack)

To close out this hot and steamy weekend I post below the usual weekly summation, the main #1 positive being the all-time low mortgage rates, which might explain the main #2 positive of existing home sales up a whopping 20%.  The main negative as always is the continuing ferocious surge of COVID-19 and jobless claims rising another 1.4 million this week.  The bonus this Sunday night is again the latest segment of the PBS series "WealthTrack," this time on the ever popular topic of safe havens for money (besides the very low yielding and most popular of safe havens -- the T-bill!)  They're forecasting that the hot and steamy weather ends Tuesday.  Let's hope so.  Hope everyone managed to stay comfortable this weekend.  

7 Top S&P 500 Stocks That Insiders Are Buying

For your weekend reading pleasure on this very hot and steamy weekend I submit this week's issue of U.S. News Invested on one of our most favorite topics -- the legal way to do insider trading.  I submit a list of the 7 favorite companies that insiders are buying.  Stay cool. 

Wall Street closes lower as Intel dives, earnings and pandemic weigh

It was another 3-digit drubbing on the Dow as a weak day for Q2, surging pandemic rates and geopolitical instability created skittishness heading into the weekend.  The good news is that the Nasdaq has had a terrific bull ride in the last couple months so it was due for a well-deserved correction per today’s expert.  Next week will bring us the biggest Q2 reporting yet and with anxiety over that and the expectation of the worst GDP in our lifetime (a 35% drop in Q2!?)  For the third day in a row, we have over 1,000 deaths in the U.S.  The good news is that with 128 companies now reporting, just over 80% have beaten forecasts.  As the market awaits more Q2 (and even anything positive regarding the pandemic), volume remains lighter than usual at just over 9.5 billion. 

Wall Street closes sharply lower on tech selloff

The Dow took a steep dive today as mixed Q2 and a worsening pandemic put a damper on optimism, particularly the news that Apple was in trouble with numerous states investigating consumer protection.  It also did not help that jobless claims climbed to 1.4 million last week while Congress still struggles to decide on a new stimulus package. COVID-19 cases have now passed the 4 million mark and the nation now averages 2,600 new cases every hour.  The only good news today is that Q2 continues in full stride with 113 S&P companies now reporting and 77% beating estimates.  Volume was just a tad below average at just under 10.8 billion. 

Wall Street ends choppy session higher on mixed earnings, U.S. stimulus debate

Another rocky ride today for the Dow but mostly in the black all day and closing up 165 points.  Today there was a record 1200 daily death rate in the U.S. but there remains high confidence that there will be a stimulus package soon since, as today’s expert put it, “Or consumer spending is going to falter again.”  The two bits of good news today was a record jump in existing home sales and 75 S&P companies reporting with 77% beating consensus.  Volume was once again below recent averages at 10.3 billion.

S&P 500 closes slightly higher as stimulus hopes lift cyclical stocks

The whole session today was up almost 300 points on the Dow until about 3 pm when it took a dive and lost about half of its gains closing up 159, triggered by a drop in tech shares.  Still, it is a sign of optimism for a recovery when investors are rotating into cyclical stocks, the kind that will do well in a recovered economy.  The S&P is now into positive territory for the year almost 1%, the Nasdaq leads with a 19% gain since January and the Dow is now only 6% down for the year. Though the COVID-19 news remains bleak, everyone is looking to the Congress for another stimulus package and they have less than two weeks to produce one. Q2 now stands at 58 companies reporting and 77.6% beating estimates.  Coca-Cola and Lockheed both beat estimates.  Volume is now in line with recent averages at 11.8 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher, Nasdaq sets record as potential vaccines show promise

Down nearly 200 right out the gate, then up about a hundred just before close, then down again to close near even, the Dow had a rocky ride today.  The S&P and Nasdaq did decidedly better with big boosts from Amazon and Microsoft. The bad news is that pandemic deaths passed the 140K mark over the weekend.  The good news is that vaccine trials have shown promise in being safe and inducing immune responses.  The next step is assessing the next round of stimulus, particularly due to enhanced jobless benefits expiring in two weeks.  As for Q2, one-tenth of S&P companies have reported with 77% beating consensus.  As Q2 reporting continues, volume remains below average at just under 10 billion. 

Succinct Summations for week ending 7.17.2020 (plus Herd Immunity)

Below is the weekly summation, the main positive being that the markets were actually up again despite horrible COVID-19 news, the main negative being the horrible COVID-19 news.  (Except here in Michigan. Despite a mildly higher infection rate, we continue to do very well here, and exceptionally well in the metro area. I'm thankful I live in Michigan.) So while on the topic of the COVID-19 news, the bonus this Sunday night is a graphic posted this weekend on Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture blog showing another interesting scenario for how this whole crisis could ultimately wrap up, a chart estimating how far away we are from herd immunity with New York City in first place versus London, Madrid, Wuhan, Boston, Stockholm, and Barcelona. Of course, this is all assuming that the antibody theory proves correct.  The science jury is still out on that one.  Hope nobody got sick during this blistering weekend.  I for one was doing fine until 3 a.m. Sunday morning when I woke up sick and sweating despite the AC on full blast. I've been struggling ever since. Hopefully the worst of this heat wave ends tonight.

Pandemic Uncertainty Risks

During this searingly hot weekend, let's stay indoor in nice air-conditioned comfort and watch this week's segment of the PBS finance program "WealthTrack" hosted by Consuelo Mack. As pandemic rates begin to rise even here in Michigan (and soar throughout the rest of the country), this week Consuelo interviews Matthew McClennan about the economic and market risks that COVID-19 has heaped upon us.  Stay cool on Sunday.  It'll be the worst yet. 

S&P 500 ends higher as traders weigh stimulus and virus worries

A mild loss on the Dow today but the Nasdaq and S&P both pushed a little higher as investors continued to weigh more fiscal stimulus versus soaring pandemic rates. For the week, the S&P and Dow were up, the Nasdaq down as money moves from high-flying companies into cyclical sectors that would do well in a recovering economy, signaling that the market has confidence that the economy will recover.  Q2 moves ahead aggressively next week as the markets have already discounted 2020 as a disaster and are now looking for signs of improvement in 2021 and 22.  The VIX closed at its lowest level since June 5^th, another signal that investors expect a recovery.  The S&P remains within 5% of its all-time February high and there is great confidence that there will be more stimulus since both parties have substantial political incentive to pass it.  As today’s expert opined, it’s not a question of if but rather only when and how much.  As Q2 reporting has only begun, volume remains substantially below average at just 9.5 billion. 

Wall Street ends lower on COVID-19 worries, tech weighs

With the S&P just 5% below its February record high, the markets took another dive today with a jump in virus cases forcing several states into a second shutdown sparking fears of more business damage and slowing the Wall Street rally.  The S&P has outrun the Nasdaq over the past week sending an optimistic signal that money is transferring into names that will do well in a recovered economy. As the big banks continue Q2 reporting, BofA did not fare well but Morgan Stanley posted a record profit.  As investors await more Q2 reporting, volume was considerably below recent averages at only 9.6 billion. 

Wall Street rallies on vaccine bets, Goldman results

The Dow had another big 3-digit boost today with Goldman Sachs turning in a strong Q2 report and Moderna turning in a strong vaccine report.  The Moderna news particularly reassured investors that this crisis will not last forever, that there is a light at the end of the tunnel.  The Fed also fueled enthusiasm with the Beige Book giving businesses an uptick in activity. However, there remains the daunting reality that the U.S. has done a poor job managing the pandemic which has created a high level of uncertainty.  Morgan Stanley and BofA also got a boost with investors expecting good Q2 reports from them tomorrow.  Volume was a tad below recent averages at 11 billion. 

Wall Street surges, led by energy and materials

   A very good day for the market today with the Dow jumping 556 points as investors rotated into value with a mass buying spree of energy, industrials, materials and staples, all this despite terrible COVID news of California shutting down and Florida having another record spike.  The first of Q2 saw JP Morgan delivering the good news of a smaller than forecast drop in profits but Wells Fargo reporting their first earnings loss since 2008. Citigroup also came in with a steep fall in earnings overall dropping the bank index 1.2 percent.  Though the markets have now reclaimed most of their pandemic related losses since March, the surges and problems, particularly in California and Florida, has created uncertainty about the economic recovery.  The good news is the Nasdaq continues to rise swimmingly.  After the dive on Monday with investors thinking the tech bull run was over, there was an impressive rebound today. One other news items that boosted the market was Moderna taking its promising vaccine to final trials as early as July 27^th.  Volume was again below recent averages at 10.7 billion. 

S&P 500 and Nasdaq end lower after sharp drop in tech titans

The Dow was up over 500 points as late as 2 pm and then sunk like a rock to close near even, the late session selling triggered by California governor Newsom ordering a new lockdown due to the huge recent spikes in infections and deaths.  It had been up all day due to the very good news of both BioNTech and Pfizer being approved by the FDA for their two vaccines to be fast-tracked but that was not enough to overcome the bad news from the world’s sixth largest economy. The VIX had its biggest daily gain since June 11.  There’s been lots of good economic news to give investors confidence that the economy is on the road to recovery but none of it can beat bad pandemic news.  This week begins Q2, then we’ll see.  They expect a 40% drop in S&P earnings. If it’s not that bad, we’ll see better numbers ahead.  Today volume was right in line with recent averages at 11.6 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 7.10.20 (plus Wealth365 Summit - Online Financial Conference)

Below is the usual weekly summation, the main positive being that despite the terrible COVID-19 news, the markets continue to recover, the main negative being the record number of new infections (except here in Michigan; we live in a wonderful state) and the rising death toll that is running rampantly across the sunbelt due to incompetent leadership.  The bonus this Sunday evening is another submission from TradeWiki, this time a free series of investment seminars, one hour conferences from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. beginning tomorrow morning 7/13 through Saturday.  Use the link to peruse the schedule; there's something in there for everyone. Note: you do have to register to have access.  Hope everyone had a great weekend. 

10 Rules for Stock Trading [Infographic] | TradeWiki

For your weekend pleasure, I submit a website I've discovered in recent months called TradeWiki. It is not unlike Investopedia but in other ways more concise and better.  You can easily register on their site for informative emails and the one I received a few days is presented below with a very instructive graphic illustrating in an eye-shot the ten steps for successful trading.  Have a look and judge for yourself.  Meanwhile, after this blistering heat wave we've just been through, please enjoy this very beautiful weekend. 

Wall Street jumps with financials; Gilead data offsets virus fears

Yesterday the Dow lost 360 due to pandemic concerns, yesterday there was a gain of 360 when Gilead released a report that its COVID-19 drug significantly improved recovery and reduced death.  That put today’s infection increase, the largest one-day increase for two consecutive days, on the backburner again. The S&P remains more than 40% off its March bottom but the dour forecast of Q2 S&P earnings falling by more than 40% remains on the books.  As investors await Q2 reporting which begins next week with the major banks, volume continues below recent averages, today at just under 9.6 billion. 

Dow, S&P 500 fall on fears over virus resurgence but Nasdaq ends at record high

With 60,000 new COVID infections reported yesterday, the Dow dove 360 points today and this was despite the flurry of good economic data including jobless benefits at a four month low and a record pace of job additions. Yesterday’s gains were widely attributed to good numbers from the big tech companies but they also turned in good numbers today so that pretty much settles the case that the pandemic is still driving the market. There does remain a record 32.9 million people drawing unemployment and investors remain in wait-and-see on Q2 in which S&P earnings are expected to drop by 40 percent. So despite the good data that’s out there, there are also some very big concerns.  Volume remains below recent averages at 10.7 billion. 

Nasdaq ends at record high as Wall Street rises with tech shares

After a big surge right out the gate, the Dow dropped down to near even levels until just after 2 pm when it surged again to close up 177.  Part of the suppression during most of the day was the result of pandemic infections exceeding 3 million today.  But the late session surge was likely triggered by the comments from the St. Louis Fed prez that unemployment would likely decline below 8% before year-end.  Meanwhile, investors are in wait-and-see mode anticipating Q2 reporting which starts next week and in which S&P earnings are expected to decline by 44 percent.  (Naturally, if it’s not that bad, the market will rally again.)  Awaiting better news, volume remains below recent averages at 10.4 billion. 

Wall Street drops after strong rally as COVID-19 cases mount

Just as the Dow was up over 400 yesterday with good economic data overshadowing COVID-19 data, today the surge in infections took center stage again and the Dow dove just under 400.  Or some say that it was merely profit-taking.  Whatever it was, as today’s expert put it, “It’s healthy to have some pullbacks.”  As the pandemic continues to surge, we’re likely to have more but today’s expert also says that will be okay.  “Even a more dramatic pullback would be good.”  Part of the sell off was also encouraged by Cleveland Fed prez talking about a long road to recovery.  But in the next breath she also said that more stimulus was needed, something that will certainly create another rally whenever there’s a hint of it coming.  Volume remains below average at 10.4  billion. 

Wall Street jumps on strong services sector, hopes of China recovery

With reports of a revival in China’s economy and the U.S. services sector rebounding, the surge in COVID-19 cases took a backseat today on Wall Street pushing the Dow up 459 points, the Nasdaq to all-time highs and the S&P rebounding more than 40% from its March low.  The upbeat data provided support for the recent increase in consumer confidence and Amazon shares crossed the $3,000 dollar mark for the first time.  Volume is still below recent averages, today at 10.9 billion.  But with the holiday weekend several states saw a record pandemic increase so caution remains the order of the day. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 7.3.20 (plus Jim Simons on Mathematics, Investing)

As is the usual case on Sunday nights, below is the weekly summation supplied by Barry Ritholtz each weekend on his Big Picture blog.  The positives are that Q3 (all two days of it so far) has begun on a positive note, payrolls rose above expectations and unemployment fell to 11.1%.  The negatives are same old - as a nation, we've done a lousy job containing this virus with now a record-breaking 50,000 daily new infections, the EU has banned Americans from travel, and jobless claims continue to be way up; we're a long way from returning employment to normal.

Spies, Lies, and Stonewalling

Facebook has been in the news a lot during the last four years.  On the one hand, it is hugely popular, hugely influential on the economy and market being the "F" in "FAANG," and also hugely controversial as, until very recently, Mark Zuckerberg has reportedly refused to do anything about all the hate speech and political propaganda that has become so rampant on the social media platform.  So when Barry Ritholtz posted this article today from the July 1st Columbia Journalism Review (the watchdog of media) about the travails of reporters trying to cover the giant company, and because Facebook is so hugely influential on the market, I thought the piece was more than appropriate and timely.  And in terms of freedom of expression and our upcoming election, it is especially appropriate for the 4th of July!  Happy 4th!

How the American Worker Got Fleeced

Happy 4th of July (observed) as we enter this very hot holiday weekend.  So I thought I'd share a pretty hot article here from the blog site of my favorite financial guru, Barry Ritholtz and his Big Picture.  Here is an article from yesterday's Business Week about how the American laborer has been manipulated and exploited since the 19th century and how COVID-19 may very well prove the catalyst for changing all that.  But what I especially like about this piece is that not only does it come from the relatively conservative and pro-business Business Week (not the first place I'd expect to see journalism like this) but it also serves as a very good, very concise history of the labor movement in the U.S.  I have pasted just the text of the article below.  This 55 page piece is now just 11 pages but was very heavily supported by graphics and data which certainly should be viewed and can be by using the link below. Happy 4th of July (the real one) tomorrow!

Wall Street closes higher after biggest payrolls jump on record

A slew of positive economic data including nearly 5 million new jobs (nearly 2 million over forecast), unemployment down to 11.1%, and the VIX having its largest weekly drop since early May all overwhelmed the very bad news about spiking infections sending the Nasdaq to a new record and the S&P and Dow to 7.6 and 12.6% below their records. There do remain the cautionary notes that despite the big job numbers, the market has still only recovered a fraction of the jobs lost and COVID-19, now hitting record levels, remains a very major threat to recovery.  Investors will now be focusing on Q2.  Volume remains below recent averages at 10 billion. 

S&P, Nasdaq close higher on vaccine hopes, improving data

After being up some 200 points in the morning, the Dow dipped a bit into negative territory by close but the Nasdaq and S&P both registered gains based on Pfizer’s promising new vaccine and new data showing global manufacturing rising and U.S. output at its highest level in a year.  U.S. factory activity jumped from 43.1 in May to 52.6 in June, a 22% leap after three months of contraction.  Private payrolls increased by nearly 2.4 million but all eyes are really on the government’s non-farm payrolls report due tomorrow.  Volume remains below recent averages at just under 10.6 billion.