Wall St. dips with health, consumer shares; gains for November

One might think that Friday's after market news that Black Friday sales, contrary to fears, were up 14% from last year, would have been sufficient to trigger a rally today.  Instead, investors were more focused on the decline of brick & mortar stores and even more on Janet Yellen's speech this Wednesday anticipating a December rate increase.  These forces combined to bring the Dow down almost 80 points.  Other factors that might be causing nerves are the November manufacturing and auto sales reports, both due later this week.  There are a lot of changes coming so the markets will remain volatile until investors get a firmer footing.  Trading was active at 7.6 billion, almost a full billion above recent averages.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.27.15 (+ reading list)

In the years that I've been following The Big Picture blog and the almost year now that I've been publishing this Marias blog, I have never seen such an extensive summation list for the week as was posted on Friday, quite unexpected given the fact that, as an extended holiday, it was really quite boring.  But as if that's not enough reading, I am, as is my custom, still supplying more reading as a bonus.  Today's Sunday reading list from Ritholtz contains, among things, curious articles about the war on drugs and, as is most appropriate for the Thanksgiving weekend, an essay about the benefits of being grateful.  Sometimes we don't realize how blessed we are and it doesn't hurt to be reminded occasionally.  Hope everyone had a great holiday weekend.

Germany’s Energy Revolution

Energy has been a major economic issue for more than 40 years now (remember OPEC '72?)  This is giving away my age but I clearly remember gas being 60 cents per gallon (1970s) and being in econ class in college in 1972 and the professor exclaiming, "I GUARANTEE you all that you will live to see the day when a cup of coffee and a donut costs a dollar."  And we all said, "No way!"

Wall St ends flat; Disney, retailers dip on sales worries

Fears of a bleak Black Friday along with thin crowds at today's shopping malls and (gasp!) easy parking ... caused the Dow to plunge 60 points right out the gate, though things did recover during the short session to close at only a 15 point loss.  The market closed early for the holiday weekend at 2 p.m. and, by day's end, the business media was reporting that BF sales not only survived the day but were actually up 14% from last year.  Perhaps the cynicism is unfounded (as is usually the case) but, as one observer noted, one day hardly defines an entire shopping season.  Still, the critics were proven wrong today (which hopefully will be reflected in a rally on Monday) and with consumer confidence up there's no reason to think that will not continue to be the case.  Certainly don't take anything from today to heart.  Trading was almost non-existent at a mere 2.8 billion shares, well under half of normal.

Those Turkeys Are Clever . . .

Happy Thanksgiving, hooray the markets are closed today.  The overall sentiment lately has been that holiday shopping will be disappointing this year, thereby presenting one more thing to worry about vis a vis the recovery.  So Black Friday is going to be important this year.  Will it allay market fears, or compound them?  Until we have the answer to that question, here is a mild amusement offered as a distraction ... witty birds!

Wall Street indexes flat in pre-holiday lull; health, consumer up

Today's market was indeed marked by the typical pre-Thanksgiving boredom with everyone out on holiday and volume remarkably light at 5.2 billion, as expected.  There was some good news - jobless claims fell and durable goods orders went up - and some bad news - consumer spending did not increase nearly as much as hoped for and the U of M consumer sentiment index fell.  All in all, the day was a near perfect wash with the Dow rising a big 1.2 points.  (That's one-point-two!)  Investors' big concern these days is that holiday spending will be anemic, this despite the fact that due to a growing job market, low energy costs, and low borrowing rates, consumers are actually in pretty good shape.  Well, the next month will tell the score on that one.

Wall Street ends higher, driven by energy amid global tension

It was supposed to be a boring week but today was anything but.  With the Turks shooting down the Russian fighter jet, the market plummeted 110 points right out the gate.  Though travel stocks continued to take a beating throughout the session, more good news than bad lifted the Dow to finally close almost 20 points up.  So if not for today's geopolitical tensions, the Dow would have been up 130 points.  Among the good news was a boost in energy as well as still another upward revision to Q3.  Recalling that in September the prediction was for a near 5% contraction, the latest data now reveals that not only was there no contraction at all but the economy grew at over 2%, up from 1.5% the last time it was revised a couple weeks ago.  Still, today's swings don't mean much as, at 6.9 billion, trading was light ahead of the holiday.

Wall Street falls after strong week; Pfizer and Allergan drag

A boring day for a change, what with most traders taking a holiday for Thanksgiving week, and the Dow dropping a modest 31 points, mostly on account of a few reports hinting at possibly weakening sectors of the economy.  Today's only drama was over the controversial Pfizer-Allergan deal, sufficiently displeasing investors to the tune of 2.6 and 3.4% drops in their respective stocks.  But the very light volume of 6.2 billion shares indicates that no one is particularly concerned about the overall market at this time.  That will probably be the theme for the week.

Succinct Summations of Weeks Events for 11/20/15 ( + reads & El Nino)

This week's news was characterized by a rather strong vote of confidence in the economy as expressed by investors in rallying even after the Paris attacks and as expressed by the Fed in its continuing statements that the country is ready for a rate hike, that the U.S. economy is ready to stand on its own.  So below is the usual Sunday night eye-shot, with bonuses this week including a new reading list featuring articles about life before smartphones and the positive side of a rate hike.  There's also a cool little graphic that compares the 1997 El Nino with this year's and, as is clearly drawn, so far they've both been very near carbon copies of each other.  Hope everyone had a great weekend!  

Dan Harris: Think You’re a Good Multitasker? Stop Lying

Here's one of my favorite pet peeves  -- all the braggarts out there who insist they're efficient multitaskers and delight in putting down people of my ilk who believe in the old school "do one thing at a time, do it very well, then move on."  As Dan Harris of ABC News points out in this entertaining 90 second video, there really is no such thing as multitasking, unless by multitasking we mean that using downtime from one task to continue progress on another, but of course that is not what is meant.

S&P 500 scores best week in almost a year

Yesterday's slump in the healthcare sector got reversed today as health stocks got a boost from news that new government rules were unlikely to impact a deal between Allergan and Pfizer.  Added to that the fact that yesterday's rally in tech stocks continued today sent the Dow up 91 points.  Expectations continue that there will be a December rate hike but that is now taken as positive news as investors will see it as evidence the economy is doing well.  In fact, it will be taken as bad news if there is not hike, as it will be seen as evidence the economy is still ailing.  At 6.9 billion shares, volume was just a tad below recent averages.

Wall St. edges down; healthcare sinks and Intel climbs

Today's bad news (falling prices from a number of healthcare stocks including United Health, Aetna, Anthem, Pfizer and Allergan) was almost exactly offset by gains in the tech sector (including Intel, Apple, Square, and Match) resulting in a near-even day even if the intraday trading once again had near 3 digit swings.  Applications for unemployment also fell, once again lending support to the Fed's view of a strengthening labor market, another plus for the economy and continuing confidence in a December rate hike.  The volatility was tempered by low volume of 6.5 billion.

Wall St. rallies after Fed minutes solidify December rate hike bets

Another whopper of a 3-digit day with the Dow zooming up almost 250 points all on account of the Fed once again validating the likelihood of a December rate hike, the first in nearly a decade.  For a very long time now the market has been going back and forth between panic and praise at any hint of a hike but it seems now investors are welcoming one for the simple reason that it will at long last put the economy on the long awaited road to normalcy.  It's also not hurting that the dominant sentiment over the hike is now being seen from the positive perspective that the Fed is endorsing the U.S. economy as able to stand on its own.  The enthusiasm was infectious as volume was again quite brisk at 7.2 billion shares.

Wall Street gives up gains after Germany bomb scare

How quickly votes of confidence get quashed.  The day started out looking pretty terrific with upbeat reports from WalMart and Home Depot sending the Dow up nearly 120 points.  Then came the great soccer match between Germany and the Netherlands ... and the bomb scare that had everyone seeing deja vu Paris again.  Instantly all the positive vibes evaporated and the index tumbled nearly 150 points but did alas recover in the final half hour to close nearly even.  Fortunately, there was no bomb but even the hint of more attacks was enough to shake the markets to very foundations.  This may be the new normal; if we thought volatility has been bad, it's a good bet we ain't seen nothin' yet!  Unlike yesterday, volume was quite brisk at 7.5 billion.

Wall St. surges over 1 percent, looks past Paris attacks

Ordinarily, after such catastrophic weekend news from France (the attacks in Paris started about 15 minutes after the markets closed on Friday), it would be no surprise to see a massive panicky sell off.  That did not happen today.  Quite the reverse, the market gave a huge vote of confidence to the stability of the economy and its ability to absorb the shock of the greatest global disaster since 9/11 with the Dow surging 238 points.  After last week's big sell offs, I mentioned there would be a big rally at the next hint of good news.  The good news this time was the lack of anxiety over really bad news.  With the French air strikes in Syria this weekend, energy stocks today just soared although travel and leisure stocks did understandably take a small hit.  Still, despite the attacks in France, investors still remain focused on a possible December rate hike and, as today's expert opined, "volume (light at 6.7 billion) is not heavy so I wouldn't get overly excited."  However one might interpret the day's events - whether as a vote of confidence in the strength of the system - or elsewhere - today's rally was sufficient to recapture about half of last week's losses, which means that the 8 percent October rally remains mostly intact.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.13.15 (+ 2 bonuses - LFPR & Josh Brown video)

As the unemployment rate continues to plummet, there has been much discussion by the cynics in the last few years of the so-called Labor Force Participation Rate.  The argument goes as follows: the low unemployment rate is a complete fiction because the LFPR has also gone down, mainly because of discouraged workers who are too depressed about the lame economy to even try to look for work.  Thus the real unemployment rate is closer to 10%, much higher depending on the demographic.  This is the argument being used by those who wish to accuse the government of (charitably) using fuzzy math or (less charitably) being downright deceitful.  This LFPR would not only include the drop-outs but also the underemployed, those who have been forced to accept jobs that pay far less than the jobs they held prior to the recession.

The Amateur Advantage

This is a popular topic that comes up from time to time and of which we never tire.  The old argument that the markets are fixed and overwhelmingly favor the big institutional investors over which the little guy has no control is simply not true.  Moreover, the individual amateur investor has enormous advantages in his or her toolkit that the professionals are not allowed to use.  As I said, this has been much discussed but today's posting from Barry Ritholtz does an exceptional job of articulating it.

Wall Street drops, ends worst week since August

The second consecutive day of a major rout with the Dow plunging another 200 points and the three indexes down more than 3% for the week, its worst week since the dark days of August.  The retail sector continues to reel badly from Macy's bad news, which has now been followed by more bad news from Nordstrom.  Investors are pulling back from the brick and mortar retailers on fears that China's problems will have an adverse effect on holiday sales.  Bad news from Cisco, Apple, and Facebook also pulled down the whole tech sector.  And there's also no getting around the fact that the markets are bracing for major turmoil if, as expected, the Fed raises rates next month.  Trading was brisk at 7.7 billion shares.

Wall St. suffers biggest drop since September

It happens once in a while that there's a dramatic rout in the market and it plummets big time.  Today it happened again when the Dow took a dive to the tune of a whopping 254 points when the Fed once again issued an informal statement that a December rate was still a definite possibility.  Also adding to the day's sell off was the continuing slide in oil, this time suffering still another one-day 4% drop which has the commodity once again at a six year low.  This happens now and then, especially lately, and it will bounce back again at the next hint of good news.  Today's volume was in line with recent averages at 7.1 billion.

Wall Street ends lower as oil and retailers weigh

Another nervous day with the Dow up and down through a 100 point range again as investors deal with shaky retailer reports and a still diving oil market.  After Macy's sent the entire retail sector into a panic, the oil markets added to the day's toil by falling still another 3 percent, again because of growing stockpiles.  Seems no matter how low the price goes, we just can't deplete those stockpiles.  The end result was a 56 point loss for the day, not much really and certainly not a lot considering the way below average 6.2 billion volume.  Trading will likely continue on the light side until the Fed actually makes its move next month, assuming it actually does make its move next month.

Small gain on Wall St. as investors eye rate hike

A second consecutive day of tumult as the Dow swung wildly back and forth in a 110 point range as investors continue to brace for the likelihood of the first interest rate hike in eight years with the index finally settling at close with a modest 27 point gain.  With all the ups and downs and despite the great gains in October and November, the S&P today stands at just a 1% gain for 2015 while the Dow is just slightly down.  But while YTD numbers look less than wonderful, the 12 month Dow still stands at a 3,000 point gain or a very impressive 20%.  Also the smart money still very much expects that the markets will end 2015 10% above present levels.  At 6.7 billion, volume was below recent averages.

Wall St. indexes drop 1 percent as rate hike looms

Today was the day that The Street finally got it.  All the great news of the past several weeks finally sunk in that the likelihood of a Fed rate hike is right around the corner, thus creating the mild meltdown all the smart money's been expecting with a resultant crash amounting to 180 points on the Dow.  But as today's resident expert stated -- a sentiment shared by most economists -- with the Fed making its first rate hike in years, "ultimately stocks will thrive because it will prove the U.S. economy is healthy enough to stand on its own."  88 percent of Q3 reports are in now and there is once again a substantial revision to dire Q3 profits predictions.  These forecasts started at nearly a minus 5% in September and have been steadily revised week by week in a positive direction.  Today the latest revision is a minus 0.9 percent.  It's very likely it will be zero or positive by December.  At 7.1 billion, volume was just about exactly in line with recent averages.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.6.15 (plus Valeant & 1900 market)

Once again, the weekly eye-shot.  Once again, mostly good news, kind of a nice change of pace ain't it?  As I have mentioned before, since Valeant Pharmaceuticals has been so much in the news lately, I thought a more in-depth look was in order, so tonight I provide it.  A second bonus tonight is a very cool graphic showing the entire history of the S&P since 1900.  A very interesting representation of this and past recessions, but still nothing compared to the volatility of the period 1920-1945.

Wall St. flat as rate hike eyed; banks counter utilities drop

The payroll report came in gangbusters today, hiring being much better than forecast so the market sentiment now is that there almost certainly will be a rate hike in December (just as the Fed has been saying for quite some time.)  Not only was hiring strong (271,000 vs a forecast of 180,000) but the unemployment rate dropped to an eight year low of 5.0% (vs a forecast of 5.1%) and even wages seeing their biggest increase since 2009.  It all amounted to more than enough of the strong data the Fed has been looking for as evidence that the economy is on firm ground.  Though trading was rather schizophrenic all day drifting back and forth in a 140 point range, the Dow still closed with a relatively modest 47 point gain, not bad considering the market can't decide whether the day's news qualifies as good (strong data) or bad (possible rate hike.)  Volume was quite robust at 7.8 billion.

Wall St slips after mixed earnings as jobs report looms

Today's financial reporting would have it that, due to tomorrow's payroll report, everyone's sitting the day out so the market ended flat.  Well, the intraday activity does not support that position at all; it was in fact quite a tumultuous session with the Dow swinging back and forth 150 points between big selling due to bad Q3 reports and big buying due to good.  As the final analysis indicated, there was a 1.05:1 decline vs advance ratio on the NYSE which means that the amount of selling almost exactly equaled the buying which accounted for the very slight 4 point loss at close.  At 7.3 billion shares, volume was also quite brisk (as it has been) so nobody was really sitting this one out.  Valeant Pharmaceuticals was back in the news as the Senate panel investigating drug price gouging started yesterday and its price tumbled still another 14 percent.  But tomorrow will be big.  If we get a good payroll report, that will tell the market that there almost certainly will be a rate hike in December.  So there'll either be a rally or a sell off depending on that data.

Wall St. ends down after energy slide, Yellen comments

Once again Janet Yellen very clearly states the Fed's intentions as she has done any number of times before:  interest rates will go up when there is solid evidence the economy is improving.  Even though the statements are quite consistent, every time one is issued the market reacts like it's never heard it before, sometimes with cheers, sometimes with jeers.  With all the good news lately, even the greatest skeptics have to admit the economy is up so today it was jeers -- and the Dow sank 50 points.  Not that 50 points is a big deal but it has been taken as an indication that the big five-day rally is over and the market now braces for a December rate hike.  Even today's employment numbers were very encouraging showing a steady pace of hiring in October.  Friday comes the payroll report, the most widely followed indicator.  Volume was very healthy at 7.4 billion.

Energy, tech push stocks up; Nasdaq 100 sets record

Yesterday's (really last week's; actually really really last month's) rally continued today as investors obviously feel quite confident about the direction of the market and the overall economy.  November has gotten started with a bang after all three indexes posted their best monthly performances in four year in October.  As of today, 379 of the 500 S&P companies have posted solid Q3 reports with 70% beating profit estimates against an historical average of 63%.  Quite impressive, and quite the change from September when the overwhelming sentiment was for a 5% loss.  But after September's rout, investors are still looking for beaten up names that have value. But the bargain hunting may be topping out.  One thing nobody seemed to notice was the slide the Dow took in the last hour of trading today.  We'd been up more than 150 points and then lost nearly half of that in the final hour.  So tomorrow the bargain hunting may be replaced with profit taking.  Volume was quite brisk at 7.5 billion.

Wall St. climbs, led by energy, healthcare; Nasdaq 100 hits 15-year high

Last week's extraordinary rallies continued to infect investor enthusiasm today as sentiment is now apparently leaning towards risk-taking (aka "buying") now that the market seems satisfied that Q3 is going to end well.  Consequently, the Dow zoomed up again, this time a big 165 points.  More significantly, the S&P with its big 25 point gain came within 30 points of its all-time high and the Nasdaq with an added 73 points did reach a 15 year high.  All in all, it was a pretty historic day, despite the fact that the October manufacturing report was at a 2-1/2 year low but this was compensated by a rise in new orders which triggered more buying than selling.  Exxon and Chevron also turned in solid Q3 reports which shot their stocks up and the overall energy index, which has been ailing lately, up 2.4 percent.  There was even good news from the biotech sector when good old Valeant shot up 7.1% after its recent beatings, all on mere news that there were no additional accusations being made against them.  Volume was close in line with recent averages at 6.9 billion.

Succinct Summations of Week’s Event’s 10.30.15 (+ best bonus yet - the Ritholtz Method)

Today Barry Ritholtz supplied his best Sunday bonus yet -- an interview he gave to "The Evidence Based Investor" this past Wednesday in which the former lawyer and now Wall Street wizard describes his approach to investing.  This maven whose fund oversees $175 million dollars in assets and whose blog, "The Big Picture," has so far amassed 130 million views making it one of the most widely read and most influential sources of investment info in the U.S.  More important, he explains why the vast majority of investors do it wrong.  I've shared many wonderful mini-courses in my Marias blog but this may be the bestest and miniest of them all.  Of course, as I always do on Sunday, there is also Ritholtz's summation of the very, very good week we all just had on Wall Street.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.