Wall Street suffers feeble end to turbulent 2015

The last day of 2015 did not go at all the way the market had hoped.  It was the one day that the predictable pattern of a big rally following a big sell off did not happen, and this despite the fact that oil, which has been the market's biggest driver this year, had a good day moving the entire energy sector up +0.34 percent.  The rest of the market did not fare well with the Dow dipping big time 178 points leaving both the Dow and S&P in negative territory for the year, the S&P at a minus 0.7%, the Dow a minus 2.2%.  But the intraday trading told a more curious tale.  The day started with a major beating right out the gate but by 1 pm had recovered all losses and was poised for another rally.  Then the tide turned again and the index took more losses, but most of the damage was all done in the final half hour.  There is much to reflect on for the year but the main story is all about oil which lost a third of its value due to an historic glut caused by concerns over the slowdown in China.  But the good news per today's expert is that there is a rather simple trick for succeeding in this crazy market, "On those big down days, hold your nose and buy."  The bad news:  "Many of the risks that worried investors this year will remain front and center in 2016."  As expected, volume was very thin at 5.3 billion.

Oil bogs down Wall St. as S&P 500 clings to gain for 2015

The market is quite sensitive to the energy sector these days.  Yesterday the index got a big boost when oil had a nice little bounce.  Today crude once again slipped and once again flirted with an 11 year low sending the Dow down another 117 points on this the second to the last trading day for the year.  If not for the energy industry, the markets today would have been in just barely positive territory for the year (the S&P in fact is, though at a whisper thin plus 0.2%.)  Of course, we'll have the final story tomorrow but, as of today, energy is down 24% this year.  So if not for that, it would have been quite the excellent year.  But given the fact that the markets were down nearly 15% as of August and that as recently as a couple weeks ago all the masters were still predicting a 2 to 4% loss for the year, ending the year at near break-even is a remarkable accomplishment.  As of today, the Dow is down 1.2% for the year, but just yesterday it was only half that.  We still have one day left.  At least today's losses were quite a lot less than yesterday's bounce.  As the trend has been, perhaps we'll see a final rally tomorrow.  Whatever happens, volume is still very light at 4.6 billion, but very much in line with usual holiday volumes.

Apple and Amazon deliver rally on Wall Street

It seems oil has been driving the market of late, namely because investors believe that as the black stuff goes, so goes the global economy.  So crude's decline in the last couple years has fueled much fear about global decline, which hasn't helped the international markets one bit.  Today it was a different story, with the energy markets having a very good time of things with crude getting a nice bounce, bolting the Dow up a very good 192 points and thus the consumer sentiment index up 3 points.  All the Wall Street aristocrats have been predicting net losses for 2015 for both the Dow and the S&P.  Today the S&P was once again in positive territory and the Dow up 1.1% for the day which brings the index close to break-even for year (after a disastrous August and September), quite a difference from the 4% loss that was predicted just a few weeks ago.  So maybe we got that Santa Claus rally after all.  Still, volume was thin, though at 5 billion, not nearly as much as it has been the past few days.

Wall Street cedes ground as oil decline deepens

It was another day of steep declines in oil, this time to the tune of yet another 3% plunging the black stuff to still another 11 year low and causing sell offs in both Exxon and Chevron.  The Dow dipped very modestly 23 points but, like last week, nothing that happens this week should be taken seriously.  Everyone's out for the holiday so even small trading will cause exaggerated motion and a mere 23 points is no motion at all.  As might be expected, volume was very thin at 4.9 billion.

Top Economic Stories of 2015 (and then some ...)

It's the holiday so "The Big Picture" did not supply any summation this week.  In its place though is this very cool graphic summarizing the top events of the year plus three terrific articles offering a wealth of sage investment advice for the holiday crowd.  Enjoy!

Quentin Tarantino’s ‘Hateful Eight’ Launches With $1.9 Million on Christmas

Five weeks ago, "Hunger Games: Mockingjay 2" launched at $114 million (budget $160 million) and was instantly dubbed a flop because the financial wizards had forecast $125 million, though there was no rational basis for that outrageously optimistic prediction that no other film in history had ever achieved.  This weekend, Tarantino's new film "Hateful Eight" has launched at $1.9 (budget $44 million) and is being called "impressive." And last week the new Star Wars launched at $248 million (budget $200 million) against a forecast of $250 million and has been hailed an instant phenomenon.  When it comes to film, sometimes these wizards of Wall Street just don't make any sense at all.

Quentin Tarantino’s ‘Hateful Eight’ Launches with $1.9 Million | Variety

10 Christmas Day Reads

Today's Christmas gift from "The Big Picture" courtesy of Barry Ritholtz, a curious form of holiday cheer from Wall Street, but definitely not without its element of humor.  Especially witty is The Atlantic Monthly article about an "un-miracle" that occurred in real life in Oak Park Illinois on Christmas in 1954.  Cheers to one and all!

No gift for Wall Street on Christmas Eve

Today's market performance may not have been the gift everyone was hoping for but it certainly wasn't a curse either.  In fact, the whole day today can just be written off as a big nothing.  Despite a fourth consecutive day of good news -- oil continued its bounce off its lows and jobless claims were less than expected -- there was a very small sell off to the tune of 50 points on the Dow but this was all on pitifully thin volume of only 2.7 billion (well under half of usual) so it means nothing.  It just means we're at the end of a holiday week and nothing that happens under these conditions means anything.  We're still positioned to end the year considerably better than was being predicted just a week ago.  Merry Christmas one and all!

On Wall Street, oil proffers modest Santa Claus rally

For the third consecutive day, the market saw a 3 digit gain and so today, the last full trading before Christmas, the so-called "Santa Claus Rally," which just a few days ago was declared DOA, was today officially declared alive and well after all.  The day's gains actually put the S&P into positive territory, just a few days ago forecasted to end almost 2% down for the year.  The Dow which was predicted to end more than 3% down for the year is now just 1-1/4% down.  Oil is partially responsible having bounced a bit off the 11 year low it reached in the last few days and also the good news that there is evidence that our overflowing stockpiles are finally beginning to fall, sending the energy index up a very hefty one-day increase of 4-1/4 percent.  Economic data overall continues to look positive and consumer sentiment has reached a five-month high with personal income rising for the eighth consecutive month.  At 6.4 billion, volume was about average for a holiday week.

Wall Street rally sends Dow up 1 percent

Yesterday's rally continued today with an even bigger score of 165 points on the Dow what with oil, which reached an 11 year low Friday, bouncing back a bit. Oh what a difference a single day makes (Santa Claus may have come to town) when just yesterday the forecast was for a 1.8% loss on the S&P this year.  With today's rally, the index is now stands at just a 1% loss for the year.  Combine that with government reports that Q3 growth was at a very respectable 2% (vs original forecasts of a 4% loss) and the rally was complete, sending the Dow up nearly one full percentage point.  Volume was a little below average at 6.4 billion, but this is normal for a holiday week.

Obamacare, tech stocks boost Wall Street

Today we got some small idea of just what an impact these expiring options have on the market several times each year that produce massive but artificial and quite temporary sell offs.  Rather than the enormous 8 and 12 billion share volumes that we saw Thursday and Friday, today we were back to a much more normal volume of 6.8 billion as traders started repurchasing all these shares and which subsequently shot the Dow back up again 123 points.  Really, when these extraordinary trading days are going on, the reporting really should net out these artificial computer-generated trades to give us a more realistic picture of what's really happening.

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 12.18.15 (+ weekend reading)

It's the time of the week again for the much valued 1/2 page summation.  This Sunday's reading also looks very interesting.  The second article on "Avoiding Forced Irrationality" looks like some pretty good advice.  Hope everyone had a great final weekend before the final holiday rush.

Disney Shares Hammered as Dow Plunges 2%

My entry this evening on Twitter:  More evidence that nobody on Wall Street knows anything (same thing about Hollywood). Despite opening the biggest film in history this w/e, Disney’s stock plunged. (139)

... For those of you not involved in the film industry, this is an homage to famed screenwriter William Goldman and his iconic book "Adventures In the Screentrade," in which he so delightfully quipped, "In Hollywood, nobody knows anything about anything," a quote that has been shared in commentaries thousands of times.  I share it tonight.  

Disney Shares Hammered as Dow Plunges 2% | Variety

Wall St. slides on lower crude prices, stock options expiry

It was another big day for the markets, even bigger than yesterday as a combo of continuing falling oil prices (crude lost more than 2.5% this week), continuing concerns about China, and a 2nd day of massive options expiring drove the Dow down in one of the biggest routs in recent memory -- a massive 367 points.  But all is not as it appears.  Despite all the "expert" hindsight, and despite Wednesday's elation over the Fed's rate hike announcement, the fact is you don't have to be Bernard Baruch to understand that the rate hike was bound to trigger a correction of some sort until investors in the U.S. and around the world become satisfied that the hike will have its intended consequence of stabilizing the markets and the overall economy.  But it will likely be months before we really know if the world will adapt to this new environment.  Since the answer will very likely be yes, let's hope stability comes sooner rather than later.  Meanwhile, global sentiment will remain one of raw nerve as demonstrated today with the way above-average volume of nearly 12 billion shares that brought the market down more than two percent in one-day alone.

Wall St falls as growth fears resurface after three-day rally

It seems the market's elation over yesterday's Fed rate hike was limited to just a single day as already just 24 hours later concerns once again dominate over the slowing of the Chinese economy manifested today by an overall decline in the materials index, of which China is a major consumer.  After a brief rally, the chronic problem of the oversupply of oil hit the energy markets again today with Chevron's stock falling 3 percent.  These combined forces conspired to bring the Dow down a very substantial 253 points.  But to put things in perspective, a lot of that 253 point loss is artificial, attributed to what the wizards of Wall Street call "quadruple-witching," the phenomenon that takes place when tons of options and futures expire on the same day, creating a massive but very temporary sell off.  That alone partially explains the very large 8 billion trades that took place today.  Not to be too complacent though.  This "witching" may very well have a boomerang effect tomorrow, but in which direction who knows.  Stay tuned.

Wall Street rallies on gradual Fed tightening, improving economy

Today The Street got what it wanted in spades.  The Fed has now announced a 1/4% interest rate hike, taking the economy out of the zero interest rate environment it's been in for ten years and hailing in a new economic era, one that hopefully will not be so fraught with all the uncertainty we've had the past several years.  The Fed's proclamation is being calling "The Santa Claus Statement," a great big Christmas gift heralding in the "loosest tightening in its history" which is exactly what the market was hoping for.  Even though this announcement has been expected for some time, for days now there has been much speculation whether it would cause a big rally or a big panic.  In fact, the reaction was a big 224 point boost in the Dow.  as the action is widely taken as the central bank saying, "the economy is expected to continue to perform well."  Savers will now be getting more interest and investors a big boost of confidence, exemplified today by an impressive one-day 15% drop in the volatility index, the measure of investor angst.  Volume was way above average at 8.6 billion shares.

Wall St gains ahead of Fed as energy, bank shares jump

Tomorrow's the big day when it is widely expected that at 2 p.m. the Fed will announce a 1/4 to 1/2 point hike in the interest rate, the first interest rate hike in ten years.  Investors have now accepted this as reality and are looking forward to moving away from our zero interest rate environment. The Fed has stated for quite some time that the objective is, when the time was right, to start small and gradually hike interest rates to a normal 3 to 4% over time as the economy continues to strengthen.  It appears the Fed now feels the time is right.  What the market is looking for from the Fed  tomorrow is not only the announcement of the hike but a plan for a timetable for the future hikes.  Such a plan would go a long way to removing the considerable uncertainty that has plagued the markets for several years now.  In anticipation of getting this, the Dow rose 156 points, also aided by a rebound in oil prices from its almost disastrous low yesterday to today's 4% hike from both Exxon and Chevron, a 2% rise in crude and almost 3% rise in the overall energy index.  Volume was quite vigorous at 8 billion, a full billion higher than recent averages.  But, of course, the real tale will be told ... tomorrow.

Wall Street closes higher as crude steadies

It was very nearly a disastrous day.  Friday, oil had hit near a 7 year low and, the way things have been for quite some time, every time the market thinks oil has hit its bottom, the black stuff surprises us again.  This morning the surprise was huge, with the Dow tanking a hundred points right out the gate and oil immediately slumping drastically to an 11 year low.  But then we had a rally and the commodity actually ended the day in positive territory closing up nearly two percent with the Dow following with a nice 103 point hike.  That's 200 points it zoomed up in a few hours from its low.  Maybe oil did hit its bottom this morning, but that only means there's still plenty of room for another slide.  The market is now betting an 83% chance of a rate hike announcement this week from the Fed but whether that's already factored in to the index or will just trigger another sharp reaction -- and which way? -- is anyone's best guess.  The good news is we'll know in a few days.  And if investors get the answer they're hoping for, perhaps some of the uncertainty will go away too.  At a very vigorous 8.9 billion shares, uncertainty is still very much the name of the game out there.

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events for 12.11.15 (+ history of oil companies)

It's once again time for the ever popular weekly eye shot, another crazy week from one point of view, but since craziness seems to be the norm now, boring from a different perspective.  This week's very entertaining bonus is a cool little graphic that serves as a primer on the history of oil and the oil companies, something that should be of interest to everyone who understands just how important the commodity is in global issues, not just geopolitically but certainly also economically.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.

100 Years of Frank Sinatra

Not to run good Ole Blue Eyes into the ground but today is the actual 100th birthday date.  So as a final tribute to one of the 20th century's great entertainers, and even though it ran a day early, here's Friday's Ritholtz column memorializing his long and varied career.  Started singing not quite yet in his teens and was still working at 82 shortly before his death.  He's one of the rare celebrity icons of the last hundred years who had both Mafia and CIA connections.

100 Years of Frank Sinatra | The Big Picture

Wall St. drops as oil's multi-year low adds to investor fears

The Dow dropped like a rock 200 points right out the gate, then continued dropping steadily throughout the day to have yet another day closing down a whopping 309 points.  For the umpteenth time, the demon was the world's oil glut that has been plaguing the markets the last two years (but has also been responsible for the lowest prices at the pump in many years.)  With China's burgeoning economy, the market for oil seemed to have no limit a couple years back so the oil companies ramped up for what they expected to be historic high demand.  Since China's economy has been slumping, there are now no customers for all this excess oil and that stricture of demand has been roiling other markets ever since.  Just as everyone gets comfortable that oil has seen a bottom, we have another day like today.  OPEC is also playing dirty pool by intentionally not cutting back production, thereby hoping to corner the global markets.  Today crude fell to just over $35/barrel, a price not seen in seven years.  The sell off was quite robust at 8.3 billion shares.

Wall Street closes higher but pares gains with oil slide

The Dow was actually up some 200 points as late as 2 p.m. then took another dive to close just 82 points up at 4 p.m.  Once again it was the demon oil, still another day when the nation's (and the world's) immense oversupply brought the price of crude down yet again, leaving the black stuff near a 7 year low.  Still. most of the market focus remains on next week's Fed meeting, and most of the maneuvering we're seeing is an attempt to get positioned for the first interest rate hike in nearly ten years.  Volume was just a tad below recent averages at 6.7 billion.

Wall St. falls in technical trade ahead of Fed rate decision

Today was yet another example where Wall Street computers are programmed to do a massive sell off when a certain algorithm trips.  In this case, the trip was the S&P falling below 2,050 and this precipitated a 300 point dive in the Dow before it finally settled 75 points down at close.  This is the market priming itself for the expected interest rate hike which, if all indicators are correct, will be taking place just about this time next week.  Oil also continued to fall as it was reported that stockpiles of fuel (aka distillates) were twice as large as expected, thereby pretty much nullifying prior reports that we were having some success drawing down our massive inventories.  As we continue to get closer to next week's Fed meeting, trading remains brisk, today at over 8 billion.

Wall St. ends choppy session lower, weighed by China, oil

China's imports fell for a 13th consecutive month, this time nearly an additional 9% (quite a lot for one month) and this in turn sparked another wave of anxiety about impending global recession.  (Never mind that, despite China's decline of late, its growth still outstrips virtually every other country in the world.)  So today's sell off amounted to another 162 points down on the Dow and oil is now down to a near 7 year low, below $37/gallon.  (I'm sure everyone's noticed that gas is below $2/gallon at the pump now.)  Some investors think that very low oil prices are in our future for some time to come.  Others believe that it has reached a bottom and is due for a big bounce.  Whichever is right, a lot of bets are being placed as volume was considerably over average at 7.5 billion shares.

Wall St. slides as oil prices tumble to near seven-year low

There are days when investors feel quite optimistic about the upcoming first interest rate hike in ten years.  There are other days when the market gets downright panicked about it, wary that the economy might not be able to handle the shock.  Today was an example of the latter with the Dow diving 117 points, anxiety being further induced by yet another plunge in oil prices, crude down another 6 percent today.  As today's expert opined, "Oil is going to be staying at some ridiculously low prices for a very long period of time," namely because of the continuing slowing of the Chinese economy.  The bright spot was the airline sector which, of course, can't help but benefit from lower fuel costs.  Nerves were frayed enough to cause above average trading with 7.4 billion shares changing hands.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 12.4.15 (+ Sunday reads)

Here's the all-popular weekly eye-shot again.  This week's reading list contains numerous titles that give the different perspective that the recovery is basically all smoke and mirrors, a point of view shared by much of the public and some of the Wall Street types who are out on the fringe, but not by most mainstream economists.  There is also a pretty interesting looking book out there about the tumultuous political struggles in the early 20th century to pass the Federal Reserve Act and create the Federal Reserve.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.

The Big Short – Trailer #2 “Screwed”

It looks like this might be the big hit of the holiday season.  Due for release next Friday, it already has a phenomenal 78% rating on the Rotten Tomatoes film review site.  Michael Lewis is quite a good writer who does very well with taking complicated subjects like Wall Street and making them not only understandable but entertaining.  Looking forward to this very much.

Wall St. gains 2 percent; U.S. jobs data underscores economic strength

Wow, what a jolt the market received today with the Dow climbing an astounding 370 points.  The reason:  a jubilant U.S. jobs report that overshot the already highly optimistic forecast by a whopping 46,000 jobs.  With 200,000 new jobs expected, the actual number was 211,000 with an additional 35,000 coming from revisions to prior months.  The problem with this market, of course, has been that good news is often taken as bad (yikes, this might mean a rate hike) and bad news as good (whew, maybe no hike after all.)  It seems now that investors have accepted the inevitability of the first hike in 10 years coming very likely in another 12 days and so the jubilation now is on strong data, which was certainly delivered today.  Since the financial sector naturally benefits from the prospect of rising interest rates, companies like JP Morgan Chase led today's huge rally.  But none of this changes the fact that all eyes remain strongly focused on what will happen at the December 15th Fed meeting.  Volume was quite active at 7.7 billion.

S&P posts biggest drop since September as ECB disappoints

Another big rout in the market today, this time to the tune of 252 points on the Dow.  This time the blame is being divided between a less than aggressive stimulus from the ECB (even though they are continuing their previous stimulus as expected) and the likelihood that many computerized trading programs unloaded a lot of funds tuned to the volatility index which rose almost 14% on the news from Europe.  Janet Yellen's report to Congress signaled increasing strength to the economy and today's jobless report continued to support a strengthening job market.  The federal employment report due tomorrow is expected to add 200,000 more jobs.  All this adds up to an increasing certainty that interest rates will be hiked at the Fed meeting in two weeks.  Trading was quite robust at 8.2 billion shares.

Wall St. ends sharply lower; energy leads decline

The headline read, "Do We Blame Crude Oil or Yellen?" referencing what might explain today's big 158 point drop in the Dow since crude did drop some more and Yellen did have some heavy oratory about how well the economy is doing, thereby leaving little doubt that there will be an interest hike in two weeks.  Actually, they were both wrong.  (Curiously an earlier headline had read something to the effect "Yellen gives no hint as to rate hike."  The media just didn't get much right today.)  After close, a third much more plausible explanation emerged as it was observed that the dramatic dive in the Dow started just about 1 p.m., about the time news was coming in about the shooting spree in California.  Why a crime 3,000 miles away would cause a panic on Wall Street is anyone's best guess ... but that's what they're saying.  More good news about private hiring likely also contributed to the sell off on fears of the rate hike.  It's going to be an interesting rest of the week.  Tomorrow Yellen gives the Congress her take on the economy and Friday is the much anticipated November federal jobs report.  If both of these are positive, that will lend ever more credence to a hike.  But we're still 14 days away from the December Fed meeting.  Trading was quite healthy at 7.4 billion shares.

Wall St. gains with healthcare, upbeat auto sales

Yesterday the market dropped 80 points for, among other reasons, fears of today's auto sales report coming in weak.  So it makes some sense that when the report actually said that the auto industry is on pace for its biggest year ever that the market would zoom up again, this time 168 points.  And though part of yesterday's worries were on a misplaced focus on the decline of brick & mortar stores, today investors decided to place less emphasis on that and be happy that Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales were actually quite good overall.  Janet Yellen gives her take on the economy at a speech tomorrow and, beyond that, all eyes are on the employment report due Friday.  It is expected that 200,000 jobs will be added and, if that is the case, then the Fed will almost certainly decide the time is right to raise interest rates this month.  Volume was healthy at 6.9 billion.

Wall St. dips with health, consumer shares; gains for November

One might think that Friday's after market news that Black Friday sales, contrary to fears, were up 14% from last year, would have been sufficient to trigger a rally today.  Instead, investors were more focused on the decline of brick & mortar stores and even more on Janet Yellen's speech this Wednesday anticipating a December rate increase.  These forces combined to bring the Dow down almost 80 points.  Other factors that might be causing nerves are the November manufacturing and auto sales reports, both due later this week.  There are a lot of changes coming so the markets will remain volatile until investors get a firmer footing.  Trading was active at 7.6 billion, almost a full billion above recent averages.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.27.15 (+ reading list)

In the years that I've been following The Big Picture blog and the almost year now that I've been publishing this Marias blog, I have never seen such an extensive summation list for the week as was posted on Friday, quite unexpected given the fact that, as an extended holiday, it was really quite boring.  But as if that's not enough reading, I am, as is my custom, still supplying more reading as a bonus.  Today's Sunday reading list from Ritholtz contains, among things, curious articles about the war on drugs and, as is most appropriate for the Thanksgiving weekend, an essay about the benefits of being grateful.  Sometimes we don't realize how blessed we are and it doesn't hurt to be reminded occasionally.  Hope everyone had a great holiday weekend.

Germany’s Energy Revolution

Energy has been a major economic issue for more than 40 years now (remember OPEC '72?)  This is giving away my age but I clearly remember gas being 60 cents per gallon (1970s) and being in econ class in college in 1972 and the professor exclaiming, "I GUARANTEE you all that you will live to see the day when a cup of coffee and a donut costs a dollar."  And we all said, "No way!"

Wall St ends flat; Disney, retailers dip on sales worries

Fears of a bleak Black Friday along with thin crowds at today's shopping malls and (gasp!) easy parking ... caused the Dow to plunge 60 points right out the gate, though things did recover during the short session to close at only a 15 point loss.  The market closed early for the holiday weekend at 2 p.m. and, by day's end, the business media was reporting that BF sales not only survived the day but were actually up 14% from last year.  Perhaps the cynicism is unfounded (as is usually the case) but, as one observer noted, one day hardly defines an entire shopping season.  Still, the critics were proven wrong today (which hopefully will be reflected in a rally on Monday) and with consumer confidence up there's no reason to think that will not continue to be the case.  Certainly don't take anything from today to heart.  Trading was almost non-existent at a mere 2.8 billion shares, well under half of normal.

Those Turkeys Are Clever . . .

Happy Thanksgiving, hooray the markets are closed today.  The overall sentiment lately has been that holiday shopping will be disappointing this year, thereby presenting one more thing to worry about vis a vis the recovery.  So Black Friday is going to be important this year.  Will it allay market fears, or compound them?  Until we have the answer to that question, here is a mild amusement offered as a distraction ... witty birds!

Wall Street indexes flat in pre-holiday lull; health, consumer up

Today's market was indeed marked by the typical pre-Thanksgiving boredom with everyone out on holiday and volume remarkably light at 5.2 billion, as expected.  There was some good news - jobless claims fell and durable goods orders went up - and some bad news - consumer spending did not increase nearly as much as hoped for and the U of M consumer sentiment index fell.  All in all, the day was a near perfect wash with the Dow rising a big 1.2 points.  (That's one-point-two!)  Investors' big concern these days is that holiday spending will be anemic, this despite the fact that due to a growing job market, low energy costs, and low borrowing rates, consumers are actually in pretty good shape.  Well, the next month will tell the score on that one.

Wall Street ends higher, driven by energy amid global tension

It was supposed to be a boring week but today was anything but.  With the Turks shooting down the Russian fighter jet, the market plummeted 110 points right out the gate.  Though travel stocks continued to take a beating throughout the session, more good news than bad lifted the Dow to finally close almost 20 points up.  So if not for today's geopolitical tensions, the Dow would have been up 130 points.  Among the good news was a boost in energy as well as still another upward revision to Q3.  Recalling that in September the prediction was for a near 5% contraction, the latest data now reveals that not only was there no contraction at all but the economy grew at over 2%, up from 1.5% the last time it was revised a couple weeks ago.  Still, today's swings don't mean much as, at 6.9 billion, trading was light ahead of the holiday.

Wall Street falls after strong week; Pfizer and Allergan drag

A boring day for a change, what with most traders taking a holiday for Thanksgiving week, and the Dow dropping a modest 31 points, mostly on account of a few reports hinting at possibly weakening sectors of the economy.  Today's only drama was over the controversial Pfizer-Allergan deal, sufficiently displeasing investors to the tune of 2.6 and 3.4% drops in their respective stocks.  But the very light volume of 6.2 billion shares indicates that no one is particularly concerned about the overall market at this time.  That will probably be the theme for the week.

Succinct Summations of Weeks Events for 11/20/15 ( + reads & El Nino)

This week's news was characterized by a rather strong vote of confidence in the economy as expressed by investors in rallying even after the Paris attacks and as expressed by the Fed in its continuing statements that the country is ready for a rate hike, that the U.S. economy is ready to stand on its own.  So below is the usual Sunday night eye-shot, with bonuses this week including a new reading list featuring articles about life before smartphones and the positive side of a rate hike.  There's also a cool little graphic that compares the 1997 El Nino with this year's and, as is clearly drawn, so far they've both been very near carbon copies of each other.  Hope everyone had a great weekend!  

Dan Harris: Think You’re a Good Multitasker? Stop Lying

Here's one of my favorite pet peeves  -- all the braggarts out there who insist they're efficient multitaskers and delight in putting down people of my ilk who believe in the old school "do one thing at a time, do it very well, then move on."  As Dan Harris of ABC News points out in this entertaining 90 second video, there really is no such thing as multitasking, unless by multitasking we mean that using downtime from one task to continue progress on another, but of course that is not what is meant.

S&P 500 scores best week in almost a year

Yesterday's slump in the healthcare sector got reversed today as health stocks got a boost from news that new government rules were unlikely to impact a deal between Allergan and Pfizer.  Added to that the fact that yesterday's rally in tech stocks continued today sent the Dow up 91 points.  Expectations continue that there will be a December rate hike but that is now taken as positive news as investors will see it as evidence the economy is doing well.  In fact, it will be taken as bad news if there is not hike, as it will be seen as evidence the economy is still ailing.  At 6.9 billion shares, volume was just a tad below recent averages.

Wall St. edges down; healthcare sinks and Intel climbs

Today's bad news (falling prices from a number of healthcare stocks including United Health, Aetna, Anthem, Pfizer and Allergan) was almost exactly offset by gains in the tech sector (including Intel, Apple, Square, and Match) resulting in a near-even day even if the intraday trading once again had near 3 digit swings.  Applications for unemployment also fell, once again lending support to the Fed's view of a strengthening labor market, another plus for the economy and continuing confidence in a December rate hike.  The volatility was tempered by low volume of 6.5 billion.

Wall St. rallies after Fed minutes solidify December rate hike bets

Another whopper of a 3-digit day with the Dow zooming up almost 250 points all on account of the Fed once again validating the likelihood of a December rate hike, the first in nearly a decade.  For a very long time now the market has been going back and forth between panic and praise at any hint of a hike but it seems now investors are welcoming one for the simple reason that it will at long last put the economy on the long awaited road to normalcy.  It's also not hurting that the dominant sentiment over the hike is now being seen from the positive perspective that the Fed is endorsing the U.S. economy as able to stand on its own.  The enthusiasm was infectious as volume was again quite brisk at 7.2 billion shares.

Wall Street gives up gains after Germany bomb scare

How quickly votes of confidence get quashed.  The day started out looking pretty terrific with upbeat reports from WalMart and Home Depot sending the Dow up nearly 120 points.  Then came the great soccer match between Germany and the Netherlands ... and the bomb scare that had everyone seeing deja vu Paris again.  Instantly all the positive vibes evaporated and the index tumbled nearly 150 points but did alas recover in the final half hour to close nearly even.  Fortunately, there was no bomb but even the hint of more attacks was enough to shake the markets to very foundations.  This may be the new normal; if we thought volatility has been bad, it's a good bet we ain't seen nothin' yet!  Unlike yesterday, volume was quite brisk at 7.5 billion.

Wall St. surges over 1 percent, looks past Paris attacks

Ordinarily, after such catastrophic weekend news from France (the attacks in Paris started about 15 minutes after the markets closed on Friday), it would be no surprise to see a massive panicky sell off.  That did not happen today.  Quite the reverse, the market gave a huge vote of confidence to the stability of the economy and its ability to absorb the shock of the greatest global disaster since 9/11 with the Dow surging 238 points.  After last week's big sell offs, I mentioned there would be a big rally at the next hint of good news.  The good news this time was the lack of anxiety over really bad news.  With the French air strikes in Syria this weekend, energy stocks today just soared although travel and leisure stocks did understandably take a small hit.  Still, despite the attacks in France, investors still remain focused on a possible December rate hike and, as today's expert opined, "volume (light at 6.7 billion) is not heavy so I wouldn't get overly excited."  However one might interpret the day's events - whether as a vote of confidence in the strength of the system - or elsewhere - today's rally was sufficient to recapture about half of last week's losses, which means that the 8 percent October rally remains mostly intact.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.13.15 (+ 2 bonuses - LFPR & Josh Brown video)

As the unemployment rate continues to plummet, there has been much discussion by the cynics in the last few years of the so-called Labor Force Participation Rate.  The argument goes as follows: the low unemployment rate is a complete fiction because the LFPR has also gone down, mainly because of discouraged workers who are too depressed about the lame economy to even try to look for work.  Thus the real unemployment rate is closer to 10%, much higher depending on the demographic.  This is the argument being used by those who wish to accuse the government of (charitably) using fuzzy math or (less charitably) being downright deceitful.  This LFPR would not only include the drop-outs but also the underemployed, those who have been forced to accept jobs that pay far less than the jobs they held prior to the recession.

The Amateur Advantage

This is a popular topic that comes up from time to time and of which we never tire.  The old argument that the markets are fixed and overwhelmingly favor the big institutional investors over which the little guy has no control is simply not true.  Moreover, the individual amateur investor has enormous advantages in his or her toolkit that the professionals are not allowed to use.  As I said, this has been much discussed but today's posting from Barry Ritholtz does an exceptional job of articulating it.

Wall Street drops, ends worst week since August

The second consecutive day of a major rout with the Dow plunging another 200 points and the three indexes down more than 3% for the week, its worst week since the dark days of August.  The retail sector continues to reel badly from Macy's bad news, which has now been followed by more bad news from Nordstrom.  Investors are pulling back from the brick and mortar retailers on fears that China's problems will have an adverse effect on holiday sales.  Bad news from Cisco, Apple, and Facebook also pulled down the whole tech sector.  And there's also no getting around the fact that the markets are bracing for major turmoil if, as expected, the Fed raises rates next month.  Trading was brisk at 7.7 billion shares.

Wall St. suffers biggest drop since September

It happens once in a while that there's a dramatic rout in the market and it plummets big time.  Today it happened again when the Dow took a dive to the tune of a whopping 254 points when the Fed once again issued an informal statement that a December rate was still a definite possibility.  Also adding to the day's sell off was the continuing slide in oil, this time suffering still another one-day 4% drop which has the commodity once again at a six year low.  This happens now and then, especially lately, and it will bounce back again at the next hint of good news.  Today's volume was in line with recent averages at 7.1 billion.

Wall Street ends lower as oil and retailers weigh

Another nervous day with the Dow up and down through a 100 point range again as investors deal with shaky retailer reports and a still diving oil market.  After Macy's sent the entire retail sector into a panic, the oil markets added to the day's toil by falling still another 3 percent, again because of growing stockpiles.  Seems no matter how low the price goes, we just can't deplete those stockpiles.  The end result was a 56 point loss for the day, not much really and certainly not a lot considering the way below average 6.2 billion volume.  Trading will likely continue on the light side until the Fed actually makes its move next month, assuming it actually does make its move next month.

Small gain on Wall St. as investors eye rate hike

A second consecutive day of tumult as the Dow swung wildly back and forth in a 110 point range as investors continue to brace for the likelihood of the first interest rate hike in eight years with the index finally settling at close with a modest 27 point gain.  With all the ups and downs and despite the great gains in October and November, the S&P today stands at just a 1% gain for 2015 while the Dow is just slightly down.  But while YTD numbers look less than wonderful, the 12 month Dow still stands at a 3,000 point gain or a very impressive 20%.  Also the smart money still very much expects that the markets will end 2015 10% above present levels.  At 6.7 billion, volume was below recent averages.

Wall St. indexes drop 1 percent as rate hike looms

Today was the day that The Street finally got it.  All the great news of the past several weeks finally sunk in that the likelihood of a Fed rate hike is right around the corner, thus creating the mild meltdown all the smart money's been expecting with a resultant crash amounting to 180 points on the Dow.  But as today's resident expert stated -- a sentiment shared by most economists -- with the Fed making its first rate hike in years, "ultimately stocks will thrive because it will prove the U.S. economy is healthy enough to stand on its own."  88 percent of Q3 reports are in now and there is once again a substantial revision to dire Q3 profits predictions.  These forecasts started at nearly a minus 5% in September and have been steadily revised week by week in a positive direction.  Today the latest revision is a minus 0.9 percent.  It's very likely it will be zero or positive by December.  At 7.1 billion, volume was just about exactly in line with recent averages.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.6.15 (plus Valeant & 1900 market)

Once again, the weekly eye-shot.  Once again, mostly good news, kind of a nice change of pace ain't it?  As I have mentioned before, since Valeant Pharmaceuticals has been so much in the news lately, I thought a more in-depth look was in order, so tonight I provide it.  A second bonus tonight is a very cool graphic showing the entire history of the S&P since 1900.  A very interesting representation of this and past recessions, but still nothing compared to the volatility of the period 1920-1945.

Wall St. flat as rate hike eyed; banks counter utilities drop

The payroll report came in gangbusters today, hiring being much better than forecast so the market sentiment now is that there almost certainly will be a rate hike in December (just as the Fed has been saying for quite some time.)  Not only was hiring strong (271,000 vs a forecast of 180,000) but the unemployment rate dropped to an eight year low of 5.0% (vs a forecast of 5.1%) and even wages seeing their biggest increase since 2009.  It all amounted to more than enough of the strong data the Fed has been looking for as evidence that the economy is on firm ground.  Though trading was rather schizophrenic all day drifting back and forth in a 140 point range, the Dow still closed with a relatively modest 47 point gain, not bad considering the market can't decide whether the day's news qualifies as good (strong data) or bad (possible rate hike.)  Volume was quite robust at 7.8 billion.

Wall St slips after mixed earnings as jobs report looms

Today's financial reporting would have it that, due to tomorrow's payroll report, everyone's sitting the day out so the market ended flat.  Well, the intraday activity does not support that position at all; it was in fact quite a tumultuous session with the Dow swinging back and forth 150 points between big selling due to bad Q3 reports and big buying due to good.  As the final analysis indicated, there was a 1.05:1 decline vs advance ratio on the NYSE which means that the amount of selling almost exactly equaled the buying which accounted for the very slight 4 point loss at close.  At 7.3 billion shares, volume was also quite brisk (as it has been) so nobody was really sitting this one out.  Valeant Pharmaceuticals was back in the news as the Senate panel investigating drug price gouging started yesterday and its price tumbled still another 14 percent.  But tomorrow will be big.  If we get a good payroll report, that will tell the market that there almost certainly will be a rate hike in December.  So there'll either be a rally or a sell off depending on that data.

Wall St. ends down after energy slide, Yellen comments

Once again Janet Yellen very clearly states the Fed's intentions as she has done any number of times before:  interest rates will go up when there is solid evidence the economy is improving.  Even though the statements are quite consistent, every time one is issued the market reacts like it's never heard it before, sometimes with cheers, sometimes with jeers.  With all the good news lately, even the greatest skeptics have to admit the economy is up so today it was jeers -- and the Dow sank 50 points.  Not that 50 points is a big deal but it has been taken as an indication that the big five-day rally is over and the market now braces for a December rate hike.  Even today's employment numbers were very encouraging showing a steady pace of hiring in October.  Friday comes the payroll report, the most widely followed indicator.  Volume was very healthy at 7.4 billion.

Energy, tech push stocks up; Nasdaq 100 sets record

Yesterday's (really last week's; actually really really last month's) rally continued today as investors obviously feel quite confident about the direction of the market and the overall economy.  November has gotten started with a bang after all three indexes posted their best monthly performances in four year in October.  As of today, 379 of the 500 S&P companies have posted solid Q3 reports with 70% beating profit estimates against an historical average of 63%.  Quite impressive, and quite the change from September when the overwhelming sentiment was for a 5% loss.  But after September's rout, investors are still looking for beaten up names that have value. But the bargain hunting may be topping out.  One thing nobody seemed to notice was the slide the Dow took in the last hour of trading today.  We'd been up more than 150 points and then lost nearly half of that in the final hour.  So tomorrow the bargain hunting may be replaced with profit taking.  Volume was quite brisk at 7.5 billion.

Wall St. climbs, led by energy, healthcare; Nasdaq 100 hits 15-year high

Last week's extraordinary rallies continued to infect investor enthusiasm today as sentiment is now apparently leaning towards risk-taking (aka "buying") now that the market seems satisfied that Q3 is going to end well.  Consequently, the Dow zoomed up again, this time a big 165 points.  More significantly, the S&P with its big 25 point gain came within 30 points of its all-time high and the Nasdaq with an added 73 points did reach a 15 year high.  All in all, it was a pretty historic day, despite the fact that the October manufacturing report was at a 2-1/2 year low but this was compensated by a rise in new orders which triggered more buying than selling.  Exxon and Chevron also turned in solid Q3 reports which shot their stocks up and the overall energy index, which has been ailing lately, up 2.4 percent.  There was even good news from the biotech sector when good old Valeant shot up 7.1% after its recent beatings, all on mere news that there were no additional accusations being made against them.  Volume was close in line with recent averages at 6.9 billion.

Succinct Summations of Week’s Event’s 10.30.15 (+ best bonus yet - the Ritholtz Method)

Today Barry Ritholtz supplied his best Sunday bonus yet -- an interview he gave to "The Evidence Based Investor" this past Wednesday in which the former lawyer and now Wall Street wizard describes his approach to investing.  This maven whose fund oversees $175 million dollars in assets and whose blog, "The Big Picture," has so far amassed 130 million views making it one of the most widely read and most influential sources of investment info in the U.S.  More important, he explains why the vast majority of investors do it wrong.  I've shared many wonderful mini-courses in my Marias blog but this may be the bestest and miniest of them all.  Of course, as I always do on Sunday, there is also Ritholtz's summation of the very, very good week we all just had on Wall Street.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.

10 Weekend Reads (& Happy Halloween!)

Happy Halloween everyone (and my 62nd birthday!)  Since everyone's busy partying tonight, I will keep it simple and just offer up Ritholtz's standard weekend reading list, with some particularly interesting looking articles about Apple (which has been particularly big in the news this week) and articles about tax avoidance and how to stop ISIS from the venerable Atlantic Monthly.  Enjoy your weekend.

Stocks slip but post best month in four years

The market took a second consecutive day today to take inventory of status following its best month in four years and a series of new reports, both good and bad, but enough bad to send the Dow down 92 points in the final two hours of trading.  The good:  Chevron, Exxon, Abb Vie, LinkedIn, and Expedia all turned in good Q3 results.  Also the CBOE volatility index fell about 40%, its largest decline ever.  The bad: CVS and Genworth Financial turned in disappointing reports.  Valeant Pharmaceuticals continued to get stomped, today alone losing more than another 15% putting it at a 15 month low.  For the month the Dow is up an amazing 8.5%.  Today's slightly above recent averages volume was 7.4 billion shares.  Eyes now are on next Friday's employment numbers.

Wall St. slips on tech results, chances of Fed hike

Wall Street took a breather today to digest the fabulous week (fabulous month really) that we've been having with a modest dip of 23 points (though the trading range today was over 100 points).  Sixty percent of S&P companies have now reported Q3 with mostly positive results.  The dire predictions of a nearly 5% loss that was widely accepted in September has been downgraded on at least a weekly basis since and today stands at a 1.7% forecast.  My guess is that it will be down to zero and perhaps even in positive territory very soon.    Our friends at Valeant Pharmaceuticals are back in the spotlight when it dropped almost 5% before the bell and then more than another 11% after the bell.  Valeant is caught up in the drug price gouging scandal and this is one firm that could be in real trouble.  Volume was about average at 7 billion.  GDP was supposed to reported today but I do not yet see the data.  Stay tuned.

Wall Street jumps as Fed keeps Dec rate hike in play

The expected rally that was triggered by yesterday's after-the-bell stellar Q3 report from Apple happened right on schedule as the Dow shot up nearly 200 points.  The market also got its expected high-five from the Fed when they decided to hold off on a hike this month but made it pretty clear that a hike may very well come in December, just as they've been saying all along.  Curiously, the market actually found some solace in this in that the Fed was validating the improving economy so, instead of rushing to sell as the threat of a hike would ordinarily do, instead investors optimistically kept buying.  And Apple's numbers were indeed fabulous triggering just over a 4% gain in their price with the news that they sold 48 million iPhones in Q3 and nearly doubled its revenue from China, quite the reverse of what had been so widely feared.  The best news is that this 200 point jump was based on very heavy volume of 8.5 billion shares, way above the last month's average of 7.2 billion.

Stocks retreat ahead of Apple, Fed; oil drop continues

The first of the 2-day October Fed meeting yielded no decision on interest rates and the anxiously awaited Apple Q3 report did not come until after close.  So it was yet another quiet day as everyone stays on the sidelines awaiting tomorrow's news, with a modest daily decline of 41 points due to more selling of Apple against expectations of a bad report and further news of excess inventories in the nation's oil supply, bringing the price of crude down still again.  The odds makers give it a 7% chance that the Fed will announce an interest rate hike.  However, if they're wrong -- and the Fed has consistently stated that there probably will be a rate hike by December -- then it will be a game changer.

Dow, S&P 500 end down slightly as Apple, energy weigh

It was a quiet day on The Street as investors sit on the sidelines awaiting more Q3 results and tomorrow's start to the October Fed meeting.  The only real hit today was from Apple which, due to its close ties to China and its Q3 due tomorrow, everyone sold off today in anticipation of a bad report.  (I hope Steve's ghost surprises everyone again, at least does better than the movie did this weekend!)  But with 35% of Q3 reports now in, the pessimism is dying off.  Whereas a month ago the widely held forecast was for a nearly 5% decline in Q3 profits, an estimate that has been adjusted weekly all this month last week being revised to 3.3% and today to 2.8%.  It would be no surprise if it's down to 2% next week and in positive numbers by December.  At 6.1 billion, trading was light as could be expected on the eve of major news.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.23.15 (+ 2 bonuses)

One of the most telling comments that our guy from NorAm made at the AAII seminar yesterday was a comment I've heard from virtually every financial adviser and broker I've ever known and one that sums up the biggest challenge in investing.  It's also a not too truism that I learned very early in my MBA career when I studied and worked in market research.  Market research -- it's the magic bullet of business.  It goes something like this -- find out what the customers want and then give it to them.  It's the foolproof paradigm for success.  How can it miss?

10 Weekend Reads ( + AAII seminar and Lowry's Research)

This morning I attended an AAII seminar that promised to teach us how to efficiently and effectively read market signals so as to get out before a slump to avoid the disastrous draw downs, but also to get back in when the market is rising so as not to forego profits.  The speaker had come to Detroit all the way from Dallas and despite having a disorganized 3-hour long presentation (which is the way most of these seminars tend to go) which resulted in his being unable to articulate his final conclusions before time was up, he still stated a number of worthwhile concepts.  Since his PowerPoint presentation was so tiny it was next to impossible to read, I really hope he makes good on his promise to send the slides on email to anyone who requests them.  I will be quite anxious to study this in much more detail.

Techs lead Wall St. higher; S&P 500 erases 2015 loss

The Alphabet rush continued in earnest today as fallout from yesterday's massive rally and a continuing stream of strong Q3 reports neutralized investors inhibitions and gave fuel to even weaker stocks like Facebook and Twitter, shooting the Dow up still another very impressive 157 points.  Today the S&P has now erased all of its losses for the year.  And another rate cut from China added to the positive mood.  Each of the three major indices have jumped between 2 and 3 percent this week.  Volume was above average at 7.6 billion shares.

S&P 500 ends at highest in two months; Alphabet up after hours

A whopper of a day with all kinds of terrific Q3 reports coming in, the market no longer so entrenched in expectations of a horrible Q3 so the Dow zoomed up an amazing 320 points.  Among the winners turning in great results were Google (now Alphabet), Microsoft, Amazon, McDonald's, and Dow Chemical.  It was only a couple weeks ago that Q3 profits were prognosticated to be down 5% over 2014.  Last week that forecast was upped to 4% and today once again revised to 3.3%.  It would not be any surprise at all if we were into positive territory on Q3 by December.  Other good news was unemployment below forecast and existing home sales above.  Volume was brisk at 8 billion.

Wall St. declines; Valeant, healthcare weigh

More scandal's 'a brewin' in the pharmaceutical industry today which sent the stock of the alleged offender Valeant Pharmaceuticals crashing down along with the rest of the healthcare sector.  Crude oil also took another dive sending the entire energy sector down yet another percentage point today, again mostly due to grossly excess inventories.  The tumult caused big chaos again with the Dow swinging in a 160 point range throughout the session but ending 48 points down.  The good news came from General Motors, Boeing, and eBay all reporting better than expected results for Q3.  Volume was modestly below average at 6.8 billion.

Wall Street ends down with healthcare, IBM; United Tech rises

If you'd read the financial media today you'd think it had been boring, not much happening because the Dow closed almost flat.  Do these reporters ever bother looking at the intraday trading, which tells a very different and very marked tale of the continued nervousness that has been characteristic of Wall Street for quite some time now?  Maybe things ended up close to even, but there were triple digit swings throughout the session.  The day started with the index down a hundred points right out the gate, then rose another 120 by mid-morning only to then begin a descent that ended with a mere 13 point loss.  So lots of nerves there triggered by almost equal amounts of good and bad news.

Wall St flat; energy shares, Morgan Stanley results weigh

Morgan Stanley had a bad report today and that sent the whole market reeling with investors swiftly returning to the previous conviction that all of Q3 is going to be baaaaddddd!!!  But there was some good news and this good news helped keep the Dow into positive territory if only to the very modest tune of 14 points.  Homebuilder sentiment improved and Weight Watchers skyrocketed to more than double its previous value when Oprah Winfrey purchased a major interest.  There was even some good news from China which, though it reported a slowdown in their growth to the tune of 6.9%, that was still better than the expected 6.8%.  Q3 reports from such giants as Caterpillar, Boeing and Coca-Cola are due in the next few days.  Volume was below average at 6 billion shares.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10/16/15 (& 2 bonuses)

For this Sunday again a rather comprehensive list of bullet points summarizing the week's events in finance.  This week's Sunday reading list is offered as bonus #1.  The articles that caught my eye were (a) a topic we discuss frequently, "Challenging Private Equity Fees Tucked in Footnotes," (b) from the Harvard Business Review, "Nine Things Successful People Do Differently," and (c) "Most Gun Owners Don't Belong to the NRA - and they don't agree with it either."  And for a switch to the lighter side of the news, for bouns #2 this week I offer a clip from last night's Saturday Night Live's satirical take on the Dem debate.  Hope you all had a great weekend!

MiB: Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel

This week's Saturday offering from Barry Ritholtz is a "hot off the presses" podcast from esteemed Professor Jeremy Siegel of the famed University of Pennsylvania Wharton School of Business talking about his 2014 highly praised book about successful long-term investment strategies.  These podcasts are usually an hour long.  Listen to it if you wish; or not.  My main purpose here today is to inform all of you about the book, which has been praised by The Washington Post as "one of the ten best investment books of all time" and can be had on Amazon for about $20 dollars.  Looks like it's well worth a read.

Wall St. closes up, registers third week of gains

It wasn't too many weeks ago that a very bad day for GE brought the whole market down, just as this week the same happened with Wal-Mart.  And just as yesterday the Wal-Mart debacle was more than compensated for by Citigroup, today a very good report from GE shot the Dow up 74 points, GE now being the 2nd giant enterprise to turn in good solid Q3 results.  This created so much optimism on Wall Street that traders virtually ignored Mattel's bad sales report, in fact rewarding the toy giant with a 6% boost.  The same logic blew out the window though for Honeywell which was penalized 1.5% even though it also turned in a glowing Q3 report.  Go figure.  There is enough good reporting now that the previous forecast for a nearly 5% loss in Q3 earnings has already, after just one week, been revised to a forecast of just under a 4% loss.  A 20% shift in perception in just the first week, that's quite significant.  Other very good news included U of M's consumer sentiment index rebounding strongly in the last two weeks suggesting the recovery remains very much on track.  Today's trading was a little below recent averages at 6.6 billion shares.  More drama I'm sure next week.

Wall Street jumps to eight-week high on financials, healthcare

Yesterday Wal-Mart's misfortune became Wall Street's misfortune.  And as has so often been the case during the past several years, today Citigroup's fortunes became Wall Street's fortune as the financial giant turned in a glowing Q3 report that gave the Dow a big 217 point bounce.  This was despite the fact that several other companies turned in not so great reports.  It just goes to show that the environment is still a very nervous one and quite prone to knee-jerk reactions -- big sell offs at the slightest hint of bad news, big rallies at the slightest hint of good.  Or as today's expert stated, "There's a lot of cash on the sidelines, and we did break through to a new high since the August decline."  It wasn't just Citigroup; the entire financial sector jumped 2.3% despite JP Morgan's decline and there was also other good news.  Consumer prices had their biggest drop in eight months, inflation appears to be firming up, and the labor market continues to strengthen.  All in all, it was a day for optimism with investors anxiously awaiting any companies that show good Q3 earnings.  Volume was just a little below recent averages at 7 billion.

Wall St. falls after Wal-Mart's weak forecast; Netflix down after the bell

Wal-Mart lost $22 billion dollars today, its biggest one-day decline in years.  And Wal-Mart's bad day turned into Wall Street's bad day when the Dow plunged 157 points, portending this news as a harbinger of more bad news to come.  We didn't need any Q3 reports today.  We didn't even need it from Wal-Mart.  All that was needed to send everyone to click the "sell" buttons was this single company forecasting its own poor year-end performance.  It also didn't help when JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and B of A all followed through with the expected anemic Q3 results.  And the season is just barely started.  However, investors need not be concerned if the analysts' predictions of a much better Q4 comes to fruition, as it likely will.  There should be a much better indication of this in the next few weeks.  Volume was closer to recent averages today at 6.9 billion.

Wall St. declines on China fears, weak profit expectations

Yesterday it was reported that today would be the beginning of Q3 reporting so I was a little surprised when this did not happen, instead now saying it's coming later in the week.  Until those reports start coming, we're not going to have a barometer for Q4.  So the Dow went nuts again today as everyone is still skittish about the expected 5% drop in profits.  The index fell a hundred points right out the gate, then zoomed up 140 points by noon only to drop again to close at a more modest 50 point loss.  That's a lot of nervousness.  Yes, Q3 is weighing.  And China continues to weigh, not helped at all today by their report of a whopping 20% drop in imports last month.  But at 6.1 billion, trading was still considerably lighter than average as most investor await the first Q3 reports coming in the next few days -- and of course the very soon upcoming October Fed meeting.

Wall St. ends up slightly as focus turns to earnings

With Columbus Day all financial and government institutions except Wall Street itself are closed.  So despite still another one-day 5% decline in oil and despite analysts still sticking to their guns that Q3 2015 will see nearly a 5% loss in profits over Q3 2014, the worst in six years, the Dow was still up a modest 47 points at close.  This was mostly due to the fact that there is still considerable sentiment out there that the bull market is far from over, evidenced by the absence of a sell off after last week's big rally, and most analysts are still saying that the markets will be up 10% by year-end, obviously banking that most of this will be in Q4.  But with a very anemic volume of only 5.1 billion, I believe that what's really going on is a whole lot of fence sitting awaiting Q3 reports, which will begin flowing in abundance starting tomorrow.  So the real action starts in the morning.  Sit back and enjoy the show.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.9.15 (+ Friday's reading list)

It's time for the weekly summary again, quite an insightful one this time as it was called the biggest week of the year for the Dow.  How the world can change in just one week, since last week was called the worst week of the year.  And since Friday's reading list was a lot more interesting than today's, I'm inserting that below for anyone who cares to browse it.  That first article on the banks should be of particular interest.  Hope everyone had a great weekend!

Understanding Exchange-Traded Funds

Posted on Ritholtz's blog this morning, here is a 21 page mini-course on ETFs (30 if you count the charts).  We spend a lot of time talking about ETFs but are they really as simple as they look?  My guess is not.  But instead of spending many hours studying books on the subject, this may be a better place to start.

Understanding Exchange-Traded Funds: How ETFs Work | The Big Picture

Wall Street ekes out small gain to cap strongest week of year

Fri, 10-9-15

Every once in a great while I'm unable to get this out before midnight so it's going to be dated Saturday on the blog.  It's just as well as the Friday report is rather uneventful with the Dow up a modest 34 points mainly because everyone is now in wait-and-see mode for earnings season, waiting to see if and how China will impact U.S. earnings in Q3.  So far not so good with Yum! Brands yesterday reporting a big dip in revenues and Alcoa today also disappointing.  Still, though last week was characterized as the worst of the year, this week is being hailed as the best of the year with the Dow up nearly 4% and the Nasdaq more than 2.5%.  Do recall that, despite the drubbing the markets took in September and early October, most Wall Street analysts expect the Dow to end up 10% by year-end.  Judging from this week, we're already well on the way.  Of course, two companies do not a picture make but there will be many more reporting starting next week.  And there will also be the Fed next week.  Volume was a little below average at 6.8 billion.

Wall Street rises after release of 'dovish' Fed minutes

It seems some bright young man decided to actually read the minutes from last month's Fed meeting and discovered language indicating the central bank was not nearly as ready to raise interest rates as they had led the markets to believe.  Following yet another day of rampant swings, this time in the range of 220 points, there was a late afternoon rally triggered by these minutes that shot the Dow up almost 140 points, investors now more optimistic than ever that there will be no hike in 2015.  It's always interesting that investors would prefer to bank on these "interpretations" rather than take the Fed at its word on their very specific statements.  It certainly has happened a lot these past several months.  The late rally was also helped by oil shooting to a 3 month high and the healthcare sector enjoying its third consecutive day of gains.  The volume of 7.3 billion was right in line with recent averages.

S&P 500 reaches three-week high as health stocks rally ( + a gem from Heritage Capital)

Another bumpy but upwardly mobile ride today as the Dow swung back and forth in a 200 point range.  But due to another healthy bounce in the healthcare sector, the index ended up a nice 122 points.  I guess investors decided today that the coming drug pricing scandal is not really going to have its impact for awhile so it was okay to pick up bargains again.  The markets were also helped by a bump in gold and silver.  But Q3 got its first hint of ugliness today when Yum! Brands, which does one-half of its business in China, reported weak sales due to China and its stock sunk nearly 20%.  But the comeback in commodities is providing some reassurance that perhaps the worst of the China impact is behind us.  (Hmm ... it may be a bit premature to say that on the basis of a one-day bounce.)  Anyway, the S&P is now down just 3% for the year, and the Dow just 5%, which means the markets overall are still a very long way from correction territory.  Trading was quite healthy at 8.3 billion.

Wall Street dips as third-quarter earnings season kicks off

Everyone took a bit of a beating today with the Dow ending just barely positive after several wild swings in the 120 point range, helped only by the fact that DuPont had a very good day due to the announcement of its embattled CEO stepping down.  But neither the S&P nor Nasdaq fared as well.  After the best 5-day run in four years, investors today decided to brace for what they expect to be a terrible Q3, in fact the worst quarter in six years.  And all this without even the first company reporting in as yet.  The prophecy is becoming self-fulfilling and was helped along by today's 2.3% decline in the S&P health index and 3.7 % decline in the Nasdaq biotech sector, all the result of the coming scrutiny over the 1,000+% recent surge in some drug prices.

Wall Street rises as investors eye rate hike delay, oil up

Another whopper of a rally on Wall Street today as the Dow bolted 304 points, all because investors are becoming increasingly confident that recent bad news means there will no rate hike this year.  Why so many feel this way is a mystery to me as the Fed has already stated quite clearly that all these blips we've been experiencing are just so much "noise" and will not impact the Fed's decision, a decision that will be based on economic factors that are currently very much on target.  They've all but issued a notarized promissory note that there will be a rate hike.  But no one says there's anything rational going on here and Friday's lousy payroll report now has everyone breathing easier, but probably falsely so.  Energy got a 3% boost today which probably helped this rally a lot, but then energy has been depressed and was due for a bump.  Everyone is also still very much expecting a lousy Q3, which is also irrational since they also expected both Q1 and Q2 to be miserable and it didn't happen.  If anything, economic factors are now stronger than earlier in the year so this strong expectation makes even less sense.  Anyway, the day was characterized by what has now become the common catchphrase "irrational exuberance" and this was validated by the above average volume of 7.8 billion shares.

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 10.02.15 ( + free options book & other reading)

In addition to the standard weekly summation, this Sunday's bonus is an e-book on options trading that comes from the Rockwell Trading web site. I personally find options to be very mysterious and risky, though those who use them swear by them and insist that, when done correctly, they are actually one of easiest, safest, and most profitable investments out there. I'm hoping this e-book makes them more understandable and happily share it with my readers.

A Country Is Not a Company (and other pearls of wisdom)

In keeping with my tradition of using these weekend postings to offer longer reads on important topics, today from Barry Ritholtz's blog I submit three fascinating essays.  Actually, though these are longer reads than my usual one paragraph/one minute summation of the day's events in the market, these are not really long reads considering the importance of what they cover.  In the space of a few thousand words, these articles more accurately serve as mini versions of college courses that may be required of business majors.

Wall Street ends higher in sharp turnaround

The craziness continues.  The good news everyone was hoping for today did not happen.  The federal jobs report came in very poorly to the tune of a whopping 61,000 jobs below forecast.  How did the market takes this?  With absolute elation as the Dow soared 200 points, after initially dropping more than 250 points right out the gate.  As I said, craziness.  That's a 450 point swing we had today.  Plus investors are bracing for the worst Q3 in six years when earnings season begins next week.  Gee, where have I heard this before?  Oh yeah, Q1 and Q2!  In the face of all this bad news, why such a huge rally, basically wiping out all the losses of the last two weeks?  Simply that the bad news is a great harbinger of yet another hopeful delay in the Fed rate hike.  This is getting to be a very old song.  Wall Street really does have to decide whether it wants a recovery or not.  We continue this irrational environment where bad news becomes good news and vice versa.  But the objective bottom line is that the S&P now trades at 15.1 times earnings which, just slightly below the long-term median, means we're pretty much exactly where we should be.  With 8.3 billion shares, trading was considerably above the four week average.

Wall Street ends up slightly, investors await jobs data, earnings

Another wild and woolly day with the Dow down more than 200 points at mid-day before rebounding to a modest 12 point loss by close.  Bad news from China again along with slowing U.S. factory activity but, in the end, investors are waiting for Friday's federal jobs report which is widely expected to be more good news, giving further assurance on the economy and further reassurance that the Fed will raise rates by December, possibly even at the October  17th meeting.  Oil went down, believe it or not, because the hurricane is no longer expected to damage east coast oil facilities, which would have caused a price boost. Hoping to profit from disaster, don't you just love it?  Volume was in line with recent averages at 7.5 billion.

Wall Street ends worst quarter in four years with a rally

Today may have been the end of the worst quarter in four years but it sure ended with a huge bang, the Dow soaring a big 235 points, now having very nearly recouped all the losses from Monday's enormous thrashing.  Even biotech snapped back today up 4.5% or about one-third of the big losses from last week when investors got so panicked over Hillary Clinton's comments regarding drug price gouging and her plan to stop it if she's elected.  All in all, the Dow is down more than 7% for the quarter, the S&P just about as much.  Nevertheless, analysts still predict a big 11% bounce before January.  Good news for the day included a very good private sector job report, hopeful that the government report due Friday will also be positive.  But most of today's bump was just credited to good old-fashioned bargain hunting.  Or as today's expert noted, "When everyone gets bearish quickly, you tend to get these bounces."  The same expert said, "Investors will now focus on economic data" rather than panic at every blip.  That I'll believe when I see it. Trading was very heavy at 8.5 billion shares.

S&P 500 bounces back after nearing August low

One of the day's headlines read, "Is It Over Yet, or Will There Be More Tomorrow?," implying that the recent panic sell off continued today.  It seems obvious that it did not continue today but rather investors decided once again to pick up bargains, trading shooting the Dow up nearly 120 points by mid-morning to settle for a 47 point gain at close.  So this was not more panic as we've seen recently, but rather a lot of smart money once again taking advantage of low prices.  In fact, today the S&P very nearly pulled out of its low.  As today's expert from Schwab commented, "I would never have expected that we would take out that low and we haven't yet, but we sure are close."  So, just as things have been going so frequently lately, yesterday's very bad news was followed by today's considerably better news.  Even pharmaceuticals came back a bit, a modest 1%, but then after the drubbing they've had this past week, they had nowhere to go but up.  Apple is once again the mystery of the day, that despite a marvelous report of a record first-weekend sales of the new iPhone, the stock still fell 3 percent.  Anyway, today was a breather from yesterday's carnage and the above average volume of 7.9 billion meant a lot of bargain hunters were busy today.

Wall Street drops as anxious investors eye China

So the week before last investors were all in a twist over Fed uncertainty.  And the Dow tanked.  Then last week the Fed issued 3 clarifying statements to put the market at ease.  And the Dow soared.  But now that there's more clarity and we can now go to the bank over this rate hike, investors are once again panicked over the impact of a rate hike so today the Dow tanked -- a tank to the tune of 312 big ones!  But perhaps the major driver of this recent sell off was further Democrat protests over the soaring costs of pharmaceuticals which, following up on Hillary Clinton's leadership on this issue, has driven the biotech index down another 6% today, its worst one day drop in four years.  Today's report from China was also none too encouraging -- a nearly 9% drop in profits in their industrial sector.  All in all, not much good happened today.  And they say, "investors think the Fed is confused."  Well, the first thing we've got to do is to get real.  The Fed is not confused.  The problem is investors are confused about the Fed.  And the sooner they get educated, the sooner all this chaos will end.  But as of today, everyone is still in a tizzy and the very substantial volume of 8.3 billion was a testament to that.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.25.15 (& 2 bonuses)

This week's summation is particularly detailed, not quite consistent since it wasn't really a week too full of surprises.  And some of the positives should negatives (#7 for one shouldn't even be there since it was reported before the week's big bombshell) and some of the negatives positive (why is it a bad thing that Tsipras won reelection?) but, of course, much of this is and always has been just opinion.  But given the week's long laundry list, particularly in the negative, I thought I'd keep this Sunday's bonuses on the light side.  #1 is a humorous (but quite truthful) short video about the scientific differences between theory and law, a distinction that, if more people had paid attention in science class in their youth, we'd have a whole less silly debate in this world.  #2 -- even more to the light side -- a very entertaining vignette of a Steve Carrell film comedy about high finance coming this Christmas.  Since my other career is in film, I couldn't resist this one.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.

MiB: Art Samberg of Pequot Partners

For those of you who have the patience for it, from Ritholtz's weekend column, here's the inside scoop on a hedge fund that actually did it right.  It's from Bloomberg Radio, assume it's a one hour broadcast so ... if you have the patience for it.  But since we're all interested in hedge funds, I think this may be an hour well spent.  Enjoy your weekend.

S&P 500 ends flat as biotech selloff offsets Yellen comments

I noted yesterday that since Janet Yellen's conciliatory remarks about interest rates came after the market close, that we were bound to see a more positive reaction today.  Well, "positive" doesn't quite cut it.  Now that there was more clarity in the Fed's intentions, there was a huge rally of over 250 points that lasted until mid-afternoon, suddenly came crashing down losing all the gains by 3 p.m., but then in the final hour rallied again to close 113 points up.  So yes, the market liked what Yellen had to say last night, but then old news became new news when the whole biotech sector sunk 13% for the week, its biggest weekly decline in seven years, attributed to remarks made by Hillary Clinton on Monday attacking pharmaceutical price gouging.  Why there would be a sudden sell off in this industry due to a potential policy position from a candidate who cannot possibly do anything for at least 16 months, if ever, makes no sense.  So what's new?  At 7.2 billion shares, volume was quite closely in line with recent averages.

Wall Street ends lower as Caterpillar, health stocks weigh

Another wild day - this is sounding like a broken record - with the Dow down almost 300 points mid-day until it rebounded later to close just 78 points down.  It's all the same stuff causing the jitters -- uncertainty over the Fed, China, and none of this was helped today when industrial giant Caterpillar Tractor cut its sales forecast and announced 10,000 layoffs.  There should be a little more calm tomorrow since, after close, Janet Yellen gave a speech at U Mass basically confirming that there almost certainly will be a rate hike before year-end, likely December.  This is only the third speech by a Fed official this week that seeks to quell the suspicion since last Thursday's meeting that there may be no hike at all this year.  I think pretty much we can now discard that notion.  The good news for the day was that jobless claims barely budged and sales of new homes rose more than expected.  Volume was more in line with averages at 7.7 billion.

Wall Street ends lower as factory data adds to growth worries

Another really volatile day as China continues to weigh, and along with it materials (down more than 2%) and oil (down more than 4%).  And all this negativity was despite the fact that Boeing reported a whopping $38 billion dollar contract from China which, believe it or not, actually caused the aerospace giant's stock to drop.  Other bad news included U.S. manufacturing activity at a 2 year low and China's at a 6-1/2 year low.  All combined drove the Dow down almost 120 points by mid-day though it did eventually recover all but 50 of that.  But the day really should just be taken as a write-off as trading was very light due to Yom Kippur.  Volume was only 5.9 billion compared to the 8 billion average of the past month.

Wall Street slides with commodity-related stocks, autos

Volatility continues full swing with the difference between the day's low and high over 250 points, and at one point being nearly 300 points off yesterday's close but finally settling in at a more palatable 179 point loss.  Some of it was this ugly Volkswagen cheating scandal, which some pundits now fear may threaten the very survival of the auto giant.  But mostly it was just same old, same old -- continuing fears over China and today, those fears hit the copper and industrial metals markets particularly hard as an awful lot of our hard stuff goes there.  And there are always those who will argue that the real problem is continuing uncertainty over the Fed.  Just WHEN will that hike come?  Further comments today reinforced the notion that there likely will be a hike by December.  Janet Yellen will be adding more comments again on Thursday.  But the reality is that the S&P remains overvalued so there is still room to slide before we can really call it a correction.  And the CBOE Volatility index is just slightly above it's 20 year average and that is not bad news either.  The volume of 7.3 billion was a little below the 8.3 average of the last four weeks.

Wall St rebounds with financials; biotechs drop

The markets have now had a few days to process last Thursday's Fed decision not to raise interest rates in September (and possibly not at all for the rest of the year.)  Meanwhile Wall Street has swung back and forth between rallies and panics trying to figure out what it all means.  Today was another rally day with the Dow up 125 points, namely because the interest rate decision provided the predictable boost to the financial sector. Why the overwhelming sentiment out there is that there so little certainly about what the Fed is going to do is something that escapes me.  I think they've made very clear that rates will be gradually hiked when certain economic targets have been met, which have not yet been.  What is unclear about that?  But everyone seems to want something more concrete and, until that happens, volatility will continue.  Now we get to wait until October 16th when the Fed meets again.  Hang on for a fun ride.  At 6.5 billion, volume was below recent averages.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 9.18.15 (plus Sunday reads)

This was quite the big week so this edition of the summary should be of particular value.  And to enhance what went down this week, the Sunday reading list contains more than one insightful article about the potential long-term impact of this week's Fed actions.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.

We’re Living Through the Greatest Period in World History

With markets up and markets down and volatility and strife the world over, it's hard to be an optimist these days.  Or is it?  Courtesy of yesterday's Big Picture column, for those of us who are "glass half full" people, here's a very inspiring 50 reasons why it's a wonderful life.  For those whose glasses are half empty, sit up and take notice.

Wall Street ends down after Fed stokes global economic fears

Today was yet another of a long line of examples of irrational Wall Street decision making.  After all, for months now investors have feared a September rate hike and found reassurance only from all the bad news from China and Europe in the hopes that would mean the Fed would hold rates steady.  So when yesterday that's exactly what happened, you would think the markets would be very happy.  And for a brief time they were, until they started to consider that the reason a rate hike was not imminent was because of all the bad news from China and Europe.  Now suddenly there's another wave of panic selling sending the Dow down a remarkable 290 points, all due to something they've known about for months.

Wall Street ends down after choppy session; Fed holds rates

And the verdict is ... no September rate hike!  And though the wording of the Fed's statement left open the possibility of a modest hike later this year, such language could also mean it's possible there will be no rate hike at all in 2015.  So the much feared September rate hike did not materialize (as most of the smart money had always said) but this did not stop the market from going berserk in the two hours following the 2 p.m. announcement, first rallying 200 points, then dropping 300 before settling in for a more modest 65 point drop at the close.  The Fed cited global concerns for its decision to hold rates steady for now so, after the initial elation of no hike, investors likely then began focusing on the reasons and thus started another panicked sell off.  Trading was heavy at 8 billion shares.

Energy stocks lift Wall St. on eve of Fed rate decision

After such a very long extended period of a glut in oil inventories, a glut that has much contributed to the crash in the energy markets, today it was reported that there has been an unexpected decrease in stockpiles.  This immediately triggered a 6% jump in crude, nearly a 3% jump in the energy index and still another triple-digit rally to the tune of 140 points on the Dow.  That's the way the market's reacting while still sitting on needles and pins awaiting the Fed's decision tomorrow about a rate hike.  What's going to happen if investors like what the Fed has to say?  The odds makers are continuing to increase the likelihood of a September hike.  It's gone from 1 in 5 on Monday to 1 in 4 yesterday to 1 in 3 today.  But 1 in 3 still isn't much so it seems most of the smart money is still betting on December.  We'll find out tomorrow.  Until that announcement, volume remains light at 6.6 billion.

Wall St. rallies as clock ticks toward Fed decision

Another tremendous rally today - and for no apparent good reason.  Sure, there was more positive economic data, but there has been all along, even - or by some measures especially - on the days of the panicky sell offs.  And nerves are still quite a titter with anxiety over tomorrow's Fed meeting and fears of a rate hike so we can only speculate on why the Dow suddenly jumped over 228 points today.  It could be that investors are finally getting some degree of comfort from the fact that there is certainly a rate hike coming in the foreseeable future.

Wall St. pushed down by Fed jitters, weak China data

There is just so much mixed data out there.  On the one hand, volatility continues unabated and China is still considered looming as a potential disaster, both conditions of which could easily justify no rate hike.  On the other hand, employment and other economic trends are all quite positive, all of which could easily justify the Fed finally deciding on the first rate hike in ten years.  Investors simply cannot decide on which side the ball will fall so, being conservative, ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting they are all betting on the down side, thus driving the Dow to another loss, this time 62 points.  But it could have been worse.  Earlier in the session, the market was 3 digits off again.  However, the smart money is still betting that there will be no rate hike.  Economists are more or less 50/50 on the prospect but the bankers who work with the Fed and the futures trades who bet on it are still giving it very low odds, still expecting the hike to come in December.  The very light volume of a trifling 5.4 billion shares (vs recent averages of 8 billion!) also attests to the fact that most everyone is just sitting this one out until Wednesday.

Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 9.11.15 (& bonus)

It's time for the much vaunted eye-shot summary ending the week's volatile 4-day session but at least this time to the upside with job creation increasing and jobless claims decreasing.  Consumer sentiment fell a bit but is still close to 90% but that hasn't stopped the naysayers who are already ferreting out the negative and predicting a weak Q3.  It seems to me they also did that for Q2 (and Q1) and were ultimately proven wrong on both counts.  This Sunday's bonus is another one-page course on investment basics, but this time a course-in-reverse, a tongue-in-cheek summary of everything you should do if you want to go broke -- and it all fits rather neatly on a 4x6 index card.  Let's see if the news from the Fed next week can also fit on a 4x6 index card.  

Trump’s Wealth? Better Off Doing Nothing

Sorry, I do endeavor to keep each posting tied to something that was published somewhere that day but, in this case, Ritholtz's column from yesterday is a lot more interesting.  For months now, the financial media has been hinting that Donald Trump may not enjoy nearly the wealth he boasts of.  I'm sure that I've read articles in either or both Forbes/Fortune to this effect.  Since his is a privately held corporation, he is under no legal requirement to disclose his true financial holdings ... that is unless and until he becomes the nominee - and he certainly has not been volunteering.

Wall Street climbs, S&P 500 posts best week since July

With a boost of 102 points on the Dow, the markets have today seen their biggest weekly gains since July, now having recovered almost all of last week's enormous losses.  It's been a volatile several years to be sure but August saw even more extraordinary volatility due to the devaluation of the yuan.  Oil which has been particularly hard hit by the yuan took another plunge today when Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecast, namely due to the long standing issue of oversupply.  All of these issues continue in earnest and may very well be the reason for the recent rallies, as they provide continuing justification for the Fed continuing the status quo.  In fact, it is widely assumed now that there will be no rate hike announcement at the Fed meeting next week and this buying spree reflects that confidence.  But before we get too overconfident, all of this was on volume of only 6 billion shares which remains considerably below recent averages.  Perhaps all the senior traders are still vacationing this week.

Wall St. rises with Apple, biotechs, but Fed jitters remain

As has happened so many times before, Apple announces a new product line to a less than enthusiastic reception ... and its stock plummets.  Within days or weeks, the world discovers it had misjudged the tech giant, that these new products might just change the world ... and the stock soars.  But this time it didn't take days or weeks.  Yesterday, the unenthusiastic reception of the new iPhone and Apple TV dissed Apple's stock a stunning 2% for a one-day loss.  Today investors sent their mea culpas to recoup all of yesterday's losses and then some with Apple up 2.2% and the entire biotech index rising 1.9%.  But it was still one hell of a bumpy and wild ride today, with the index bouncing around in a 230 point range before finally closing up 77 points, now recouping fully half of Tuesday's big rally.  There are still plenty of jitters around China and next week's Fed meeting.  Even though there is still an abundance of volatility and uncertainty to justify believing the Fed will not yet raise rates, the fact that the labor markets are getting close to the Fed's targets has given investors pause.  I have stated frequently my own position that there is no chance of a rate hike this month.  And though there are many who agree with me, there are some who do not -- not at all!  That's why I can't wait until this time next week.  Who's going to be proven right? ...  All these other geniuses ... or this lowly blogger?  At 6.8 billion, trading was still on the light side compared to the last four weeks.

Wall St. falls 1 percent, led by Apple, energy sector

It seems there were such high expectations building up to today's big announcement from Apple introducing a slew of new products that investors could not help but be underwhelmed, thereby driving the tech giant's stock down a rather substantial 1.9%.  The entire energy sector also fell by 1.9% (crude alone dropping almost 4%!) and the subsequent impact on the Dow was a loss of 239 points or nearly 1.5%.  This followed a week of losses last week totaling 3% and yesterday's subsequent rally of nearly 2% thus leaving the index still above last week's levels but not by much.  This was all despite recent reports of a strong July in the labor market and the positive developments from China of more aggressive actions in reenergizing their growth.  So it looks like still another day of profit-taking while investors remain nervous about the upcoming September Fed meeting and whether China's reforms will have the desired impact.  The volume of 7.2 billion was just below the month's average which so far has been lighter than usual due to vacations.

Wall St. jumps 2 percent as China gains fuel global rally

It wasn't so much that today's news from China was all that wonderful.  In fact, it was pretty much more of the same, with Chinese imports shrinking far more than had been expected for August, and its 10th straight monthly decline.  It's that today China took some more rather dramatic steps to tame its faltering economy, among which was the elimination of dividend taxes for long-term investors, and hints that there would be more stimulus coming.  These two events caused a sudden and dramatic buying spree among China's investors, which in turn jolted all the global markets skyward, including Wall Street with a whopping 390 point surge on the Dow.  That's a one day 2% increase to counterbalance the 3% lost all of last week, or 2/3 of a full week's losses recouped in one day.  So once again traders had a very nice buying opportunity, picking up bargains from last week's trouncing.  Volume was comparatively light -- 6.7 billion compared to last week's 7.6 billion -- but then the week has only gotten started.

Happy Labor Day!

Happy Labor Day!  Like most of my fellow American laborers, I took the day off to attend a family party.  Let’s hope that tomorrow begins a better week in the markets.  

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.4.15 (+ bonus)

Another great summation of another tumultuous week.  For this Labor Day weekend, the bonus is a video made at MIT earlier this week and posted on today's Barry Ritholtz "Big Picture" column about one of the most successful hedge fund managers of the past fifty years, a one hour video which is sort of a good little course in unconventional investing in and of itself.  Even though he's a confirmed technician, his thesis here seems to be -- when the quantitative isn't working, go with the qualitative.  His instincts seem to have served him remarkably well.  Enjoy, and enjoy the rest of your holiday.

Where We’re Going

With the Labor Day week and weekend traditionally the heaviest vacationing period of the year -- evidenced by last week's wild market swings being attributed to light volume and senior brokers being away -- here's an interesting graphic showing what countries we Yanks prefer to vacation in, plus where those tourists from around the globe visiting the U.S. all come from.

Wall Street caps off tough week with a steep loss

It was another day of trouncing with investors not knowing what the hell to do so they did everything.  First there was a tremendous sell off and this was followed mid-afternoon by a tremendous rally only to be followed in the last half hour by another big sell off leaving the Dow down another big drop of 272 points.  Yesterday everyone was betting on a strong labor report and they didn't get it.  Not bad, but at 173,000 new jobs, not quite as good as the 220,000 that were forecast.  Unemployment also dropped to 5.1%, the lowest in 7 years, all of which should have been taken as good news, which was probably the trigger for the big afternoon rally.

Wall Street rises in volatile session ahead of jobs data

Indeed it was another volatile session with the Dow up 200 points by mid-morning only to lose it all again by mid-afternoon and then recover a modest 23 point gain by close.  The rally was all about the jobs report that's coming Friday morning and is expected to be very good -- 220,000 new jobs up 5,000 from last month.  That combined with the increasing volatility has lead most investors to believe that there will be no Fed hike when they meet on the 16th.  There was also the good news that the ECB may add more stimulus to the euro zone and that certainly will help boost U.S. stocks.  But by mid-afternoon fears over China came back to the front burner and caused the tumble.  All of this was on relatively light volume of 7.1 billion so most investors are either taking a break or are on vacation.  Next week's events will be far more telling.

Wall Street surges as turbulence becomes the norm

It was a day for picking up bargains as buyers shot the Dow way up another 293 points for a nearly 2% gain wiping out much of yesterday's 3% loss.  Today's columnist is calling the week's volatility the new norm, not a recovery but rather the acceptance of a new nervous environment.  I quite disagree.  This volatile market in which we find ourselves is not a new norm but an old norm that has existed for several years now.  Let the global economies settle down and the Fed slowly begin raising interest rates and we will then see a new normal that has not been part of our reality since before the Great Recession.  Until then, every little telltale sign of gloom will be met with fierce and panicky overselling followed quickly by cooler heads picking up profits.

Wall St. turbulence returns as weak China data magnifies fear

China is back in the news big time today.  As we all know, China is doing business while we sleep so, based on all the bad news coming overnight from Shanghai there was an immediate panic on Wall Street that dropped the Dow 250 points right out the gate.  A continuing stream of bad news from our own shores made the plunge progressively worse until the index was down a whopping 470 points at close, a royal trouncing and another historically bad day with all the major indexes down almost 3% in one day.

Wall Street's worst month in 3 years ends on a sour note

And so history repeats itself ... and repeats ... and repeats.  And always repeating the mistakes.  So last Wednesday the head of the New York Fed said there would likely be no rate hike in September, only to be contradicted by the Fed Vice Chair on Friday who said there might be.  On Saturday, the Vice Chair expanded on this statement with his opinion that inflation would likely rebound to where the Fed would like, thereby opening the door to a gradual hike.  Of course, the Fed has been on record for quite some time that this was a major policy objective, but no where in any of these statements has a specific time frame been stated.  Wall Street has always assumed a hike would come in December, something that investors are prepared for.  But every time something good happens with the economy and the Fed gives even a hint that things are going in a positive direction, Wall Street assumes that the rate hike will happen in September.