Wall St posts third straight quarterly loss as inflation weighs, recession looms

The day actually started on a bright note with both the Dow and S&P up over 100 points around 11 a.m.  But then they came crashing down again to close out the last day of September and the last day of Q3 with another rout. The experts all said in August that September was historically a down month for the market and all hopes were that it would not be true this year since August had already been a pretty bad month.  And though September started with a bang, it’s been nothing but terrible since then and fulfilled the dire prophecy and then some, all on fears that the Fed will drive the economy into a terrible recession despite the fact that the data does not support any such fears. 

Wall Street ends down sharply; investors fret over economy

It seems the elation created by yesterday’s remarks from the Chicago Fed prez lasted exactly one day before the severe fears of the Fed launching us into a very deep recession reared its ugly head again and wiped out most of yesterday’s gains. This was despite another comment, this time from the Cleveland Fed prez, that there were no signs that our resilient economy was not efficiently absorbing the shock of the rate hikes. And though the comments served to validate yesterday’s, they also affirmed to investors that there was no reason for the Fed to let up on its plans at all, something they didn’t want to hear. 

Wall Street ends sharply higher as Treasury yields dip

It seems we didn’t have to wait for Q3 reporting to begin to see a turnaround. All it took was today’s comment from the Chicago Fed prez that the Fed would likely achieve its goals by early 2023 that got the buying spree going again. This was quite a dramatic change from the recent rhetoric of rates continuing to climb through the end of 2023.  All three indexes had big gains with the biggest news being that the Treasury yields dropped substantially not only giving support to equities but also flattening out that inverted yield curve a good deal, now with the difference between the 2-year and 10-year in just one day cut in half. Volume was a tad above average at 11.7 billion. 

S&P 500 falls to two-year low, bear market rally snuffed out

Wow, all three indexes up all morning, the Dow up some 200 points. Then at about 11 a.m., everything started going south again. Well, the report below does not comment on everything going up, just on the going down, but a case can be made that it was bargain hunting time this morning and that the selloff was over.  Also no explanation for the afternoon sell off except for same old, same old – inflation, Fed – you name it, they named it, though of course the brunt of the blame is placed on Powell’s speech last week and the Fed commitment to taming inflation pointing to very likely (but not certain) future rate hikes and the market having plummeted 12% since then.  All the standard rules are being thrown out and today’s most pessimistic prediction is for the S&P at 3,000 before this thing bottoms out.  

Wall Street ends lower, Dow confirms bear market

On Friday it was noted that the Dow had closed just 150 points short of confirming a bear market.  On Monday, the index did that much and more, more than twice as much more becoming the last of the major indexes to go bear, following the S&P which went in June and the Nasdaq much earlier than that.  This massive selling is all due to fears of impending recession from rate hikes, not helped by recent turmoil in the global foreign exchange market and, more directly, recent heightened uncertainty over the Fed’s high water mark.  All the uncertainty has pushed the VIX to a near 3-month high. 

Buffett's Enduring Influence

It's never a bad idea to occasionally review the influence that Warren Buffett has had on investors, and that's exactly what advisor Tom Russo did this week on the WealthTrack program recounting how he started his firm Gardner, Russo and Quinn in 1983 after hearing Buffett address his class at Stanford Business School.  Hope everyone had a good weekend.  Fall has officially arrived with sudden and lasting chilly temps.  

7 Commodity Stocks to Buy for Great Dividends

Another great list of expert picks for those desiring to invest for income using dividend stocks.  

Stocks tumble, dollar soars and bonds plunge as recession fears grow

The Dow dropped over 120 points right out the gate and just continued dropping all day long reaching a low of more than 800 down by 3 pm before starting a climb that ended with a close down 486.  The Dow closed below 30,000 for the first time since the downturn began and still remains the only one of the major indexes not to confirm a bear market but did come dangerously close today as another 150 points would have done it, which it did reach intraday.  

Wall Street ends down for third day as growth concerns weigh on tech

The Dow spent almost all day up to 200 points in the red until rallying at 2 pm to go ever so slightly in the black before falling again in the last ten minutes to close 107 down. So it’s the third straight session of closing in the red but at least the losses are getting smaller and smaller so maybe the hysteria is settling down. As could be expected, the tech sector took the biggest hit as it always does after a rate hike given that interest rates so strongly impact their bottom lines. Q3 earnings are now projected for 5% growth (excluding energy -1.7%) and forward P/E at 16.8x compared to 22x back in January. The S&P has now fallen 21.2% this year, the tech sector within it 28. But just a reminder that for several years now the earnings forecast each quarter has consistently been considerably more pessimistic than what the actuals turned out to be. So anything can still happen.  Volume was again above average at 11.4 billion. 

Wall Street slumps as investors absorb hawkish Fed rate message

All the indexes were up all day long, the Dow up almost 200 points until 3 pm and then everything went south in a big way and in a hurry with the Dow losing a whopping 750 points in the final hour to close down 522 points.  So was all the prognostication about the ¾ point rate hike already fully priced in completely wrong? Or was it that, though the markets were prepared for continued hawkishness, it wasn’t prepared for today’s remarks being so very hawkish. As today’s expert put it, “Powell delivered a sobering message that achieving a soft landing was always difficult.” Without having the actual text of his remarks, I can’t say whether this was his actual message or whether the gurus are just being overly pessimistic. 

Wall Street falls as Fed, Ford forecasts, give fright

It was another red-letter day.  These past few days there have been four very dour forecasts regarding economic slowdown and coming global recession and today the market got hit with a fifth, this time from Ford.  So the indexes plunged again, the Dow 550 points down as late as 2 pm before another rally brought it up to a minus 313 by close.  Today the 10-year Treasury reached an 11 year high and the yield curve inverted further. As today’s expert noted, “There are a lot of headwinds to prevent sustained rallies.” Of particular interest regarding tomorrow’s Fed announcement and the expected rate hike is cues on endpoints for rates and the outlooks for unemployment, inflation and economic growth.”  On the eve of the Fed meeting, volume remains thin at 9.9 billion. 

Wall Street ends choppy session higher with focus firmly on Fed

Until about 3 pm the three indexes straddled the line between modest gains and modest losses and then zooming at 3 pm for the Dow to close nearly 200 points up.  The indecision that apparently was dominating sentiment until 3 pm was likely investors sitting on the fence awaiting Wednesday’s Fed rate hike vs a whole slew of recent bad news including Ukraine, earnings, CPI, a very dire outlook from FedEx, another dour outlook from the World Bank and IMF and today Goldman Sachs throwing its two cents in the mix with another dour forecast, the inverted yield curve and, of course, the Fed and more rate hikes. 

New Inflation Era

Some more discussion on inflation, this time from Wall Street guru James Grant in his interview with Consuelo Mack on this week's edition of the PBS program WealthTrack.  Hope everyone had a nice weekend.  

9 Dividend Aristocrat Stocks to Buy Now

Back on the subject of dividend stocks for those who prefer to diversify their portfolios for income, here are the latest recommendations from U.S. News Invested.  

Wall St drops to two-month lows as recession fears mount

It’s been risk-off ever since the shocking CPI report on Tuesday and today was more of the same with the Dow down some 400 points for much of the day to finally rally after 2 pm to close 139 down. The sentiment boiled over today with yesterday’s late bad news from FedEx followed by the dour forecasts from both the World Bank and the IMF.  But the ray of hope today came from David Carter of JP Morgan in his comments, “The Fed is doing what it needs to do. And after some pain, markets and the economy will heal themselves.”  Here’s hoping. Volume was huge at nearly 17 billion but today was the monthly expiration of options which always greatly exaggerates volume so we have to wait until Monday to get good numbers. 

U.S. stocks slip while yields rise, Fed in focus

You would have thought that today’s tentative agreement to settle the much-feared rail strike would have caused a significant rally.  Instead, it was a choppy day as the Dow seesawed back and forth twice between about 150 up and 250 down before closing at 173 down. It was another day where good news was taken as bad as a slew of positive economic reports showing retail sales up, car sales up, unemployment down were just another nail in the rate increase coffin.  

Wall St staggers to higher close as Fed rate hike looms

It was another volatile day with the Dow swinging back and forth between nearly 200 up and 200 down.  It was the PPI report that provided some assurances that inflation wasn’t as bad as yesterday’s news with results coming in close to estimates that brought the indexes back and modestly in the black by close.  Though we are still a long ways from the Fed’s 2% inflation target, progress is being made and the market now seems a little comfortable with letting the Fed do whatever is necessary to make the target. The sticking point now is the impending rail strike but, with the midterms coming up, investors are optimistic that the White House will find a way to keep the rails open.  Volume was a tad above average at 10.9 billion. 

Wall St tumbles to biggest loss in two years following CPI data

The CPI report was not as expected.  As of yesterday, the consensus was that the report would show an inflation rate a good 0.4% lower than July. Instead it came in a whopping 0.4% higher than July which sent the whole market spiraling dramatically downward from the open, the Dow starting at an already staggering nearly 400 down and it just kept steadily going down from there to close nearly 1300 down.  The Nasdaq and S&P suffered similar percentage losses.  

Wall Street posts fourth straight day of gains ahead of CPI report

The rally that started last week continues with investors evidently confident that there will be positive news in the CPI report to be released Tuesday morning and expected to show a bit of a decrease in inflation. Even though it’s a small decrease, it’s heading in the right direction and that has switched market appetite to “risk on.” There is now a 92% forecast for a ¾ point rate hike in October and is now considered fully priced in so there will be no more panic selling when it happens so long as data continues to show a steadily declining inflation. The “risk on” was evident in the fact that the economically sensitive stocks outperformed the broader market. Volume was below average at 9.6 billion. 

6 Best Monthly Dividend Stocks to Buy Now

For those of you interested in investing for income:  

How to Buy, Sell and Store Cryptocurrency

For those of you who want to know more about cryptocurrency ... courtesy of AAII.  

Wall Street scores first weekly gain since mid-August

Suppose the best summary of today’s market action is from today’s expert, “It’s not surprising we get a little bit of a bounce, as a lot of this is technical.”  Translation: the technicals are sound, the sell off was emotional and overdone. So today we saw investors continuing to snap up bargains, especially in the tech sector which has been suffering the most, all three indexes on a steady boost all day, the Nasdaq up 250, the Dow 377. The widely expected ¾ point rate hike coming later this month is not even a subject of concern today though the forecast is now at 90% vs just 57% a week ago. 

Wall Street ends higher, gains driven by banks, healthcare

Even though today the ECB hiked its rates an unprecedented ¾ points, which put a damper on global stocks and should have done the same in the U.S. especially given Powell’s continued hawkishness, instead U.S. investors decided there was a flip side to higher interest rates – the financial and healthcare sectors benefit.  So through quite another seesaw session that saw the Dow drop 200, then rise 400, then drop again only to rise in the afternoon and close up 193, there was a big buying spree in – you guessed it – banking and healthcare. As today’s expert put it, “People are embracing safety and healthcare is very safe.” The odds on a ¾ point rate hike come September 21st are now at 87 percent. Volume was a little below average at 10.2 billion. 

Wall Street reaches four-week highs as bond yields drop

Today was the day everyone was looking for some further hints about future rate hikes.  And though Powell and three Fed presidents offered nothing but hawkish comments and even the so-called Beige Book showed no encouragement – guess what?  Nobody cared, at least not today.  Bond yields dropped and that sent investors on a buying spree that shot stocks up to their highest one-day percentage jump in a month. The bond moves were especially beneficial to the tech sector with the Nasdaq bolting up 246 points but the Dow also did a very impressive jump of 435.  But all eyes are still very much on September 21^st when the Fed meets to announce the next widely expected hike.  Volume was a tad below average at 10.2 billion. 

Wall Street ends busy post-summer session in the red

It was another day of volatility across the board as the markets continued to be nervous about just about everything. The Dow was down some 270 points right out the gate, then zoomed back to a 100 point gain between 11 a.m. and noon only to plunge again some 400 points by 1 p.m. and stay there to close down 173. That’s a lot of seesaw action. Today’s reports showed that services had picked up for the second straight month but that industrial purchasing had fallen. The rise in services continued to fuel fears about rate hikes. 

4 Billionaires Top Stock Picks

You don't get much hotter off the presses than today, and today's edition of U.S. News Invested follows the popular investment strategy of "Follow the Money."  We're all familiar with the other kind of "Follow the Money" investing where you do the legal kind of insider trading by following the publicly available leads about what the top executives at major corporations are personally buying and selling and then doing the same.  In this case, it's follow the money of the world's most famous billionaires and what they are buying and selling.  It's all right here.  Hope everyone had an enjoyable Labor Day.  

Inflation's Powerful Impact

For the holiday weekend, Consuelo Mack devoted the WealthTrack program this week to a detailed discussion of inflation.  As the lead reads, "It's been four decades since inflation has played such a powerful role in the economy and markets."  There are a lot of reasons -- and theories -- for the inflation we have now but the supply chain crisis is the one I agree with most.  Ukraine runs a close second, the labor shortage a third. Let's see if this program agrees or points out something new.  Enjoy your holiday.  

2022's 10 Best-Performing Stocks

To start September off on the right footing - and in consideration of the historical fact that September is almost always the worst market month of the year -- I think this week's edition of U.S. News Invested with its picks of the top 10 stocks for the year would be useful.  Hope everyone is enjoying the weekend.  

Wall Street ends week on down note as jobs report gain fade

The labor report pleased everyone very much with all three indexes jumping way up, the Dow up almost 400 in the morning, as the numbers came in very close to expectations, the most pleasing part being the increase in the unemployment rate to 3.7% showing that the labor market may be starting to loosen. Then all three indexes plunged dramatically right at noon which must have been right when the Russians announced that they would not be turning the gas back on to Europe tomorrow as expected and, worse, did not know when. This of course caused concern all over Europe, particularly Germany, over where their winter energy needs would come from and renewed panic throughout the markets completely negating all the good news over employment, inflation, and rate hikes.  

S&P 500 snaps four-session losing streak with payrolls on deck

All three indexes spent almost all day deeply in the red, the Dow down some 300 points, before rebounding in the final minutes and starting a rally presumably triggered by new found optimism that Friday’s labor report would show a weakening labor market, which is what they want. Or as some other analysts have said – perhaps investors finally decided that it was time to pick up some bargains after four days of losses.  They’re both probably right and if tomorrow’s report does show a weakening market, that rally should continue big time on Friday to close out the week.