Wall Street ends mixed as inflation data buoys optimism

All the indexes were up and down quite a lot today, the Dow up some 200 points in the morning before sliding to almost as many points in the red by close. The Nasdaq up some hundred points in the morning and rising and falling twice before closing at near break-even, and the S&P following a similar pattern. The reports were mostly positive today with PCE coming in at 3.3%, jobless claims falling and Treasury notes easing, all continuing to point to softening inflation and thus keeping the odds of a September pause high. For the month, all three indexes fell about 2%. I had to laugh at the statement, “Investors believe the Fed is data dependent.” They believe?  For how many months now has the Fed been very clear about allowing the data to drive its policy decisions?  Volume remains light at 10.2 billion. 

Wall Street ends higher as economic data fuels rate-pause bets

The traditional Dow rose only modestly but the tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P had very good days with all of today’s data coming in lower than expected, thus encouraging the optimism over continuing rate pauses. Private payroll increases came in at 177K (vs 195 est) and GDP growth at 2.1% (vs 2.4), all of which supported a cooling economy and thus also cooling inflation. The odds for a September pause now stand at 89% vs Monday’s 80% and also increasing optimism for a soft landing. Monday’s prediction for light volume all week proved true for a third day with only 9 billion shares traded.  Thursday is PCE, Friday non-farm payrolls. 

S&P 500 ends sharply higher, jobs data fuels interest rate optimism

It’s too bad that Monday’s experts all said that the last week of summer should not be trusted, because so far, the last week of summer has been fantastic.  All the indexes were way up all day in triple-digits again as investors decided to take an even more positive stance on Powell’s remarks last week and the fact that today’s job openings report came in with a decline for the third month in a row hiked the optimism that “maybe interest rate hikes are indeed behind us.” There are now 87% odds (vs yesterday’s 80%) that the rate pause will continue into September and 54% odds it will continue into November. The PCE report is due Thursday, the payrolls report Friday, both of which are hoped to clarify rate hike likelihoods. As predicted yesterday, volume does continue on the light side at 10 billion. 

US stocks close green, Treasury yields waver as crucial data awaits

Even though the indexes once again had a very good day with triple-digit advances, the consensus was that this unofficial final week of summer is historically not to be trusted and that investors will be on the sidelines until we get back into earnings season.  There will be a great deal of new data coming this week ahead of the holiday that will tell the markets more about coming Fed rate intentions and the odds of another pause in September now stands at 80.5%. Volume was very light at 8.2 billion and is expected to remain that way throughout the week. 

LEGENDARY VALUE

Exactly what is "legendary" value? Well, with the market being saturated with any number of managed funds, and with this year's darling quite often being next year's loser, any fund that can maintain its winning status over time will become a legend. That is what this week's WealthTrack explores. While most funds survive for at most a few years, any fund that stands out for decades rather than years deserves the moniker of "legend." This week's guest, Steve Romick, has just such a fund which is now celebrating its 30th anniversary of delivering near 10% annualized returns with less than average market risk.  Something that deserves a serious look.  Hope everyone enjoyed this beautiful weekend.  

7 Stocks With Large Insider Trading Buys

We are all familiar with the legal version of insider trading, that is by simply looking up the publicly available information of what stocks company insiders, particularly upper management, are buying. That is exactly what this week's issue of U.S. News Invested is devoted to.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Shares rise as Fed weighs inflation risks, yields steady

The three indexes were pretty much on an upswing all day with the Dow and Nasdaq with very respectable 3-digit gains and the S&P up there too.  All this was due to the fact Powell parsed his remarks today so that, whether bear or bull, you heard something you liked. In fact, he didn’t really say anything different and under usual circumstances he should have triggered a sell-off for his usual remarks of “more hikes possible, but watching the data,” but today managed to phrase things so that everyone was happy. (Gee, maybe he should run for president.) Volume remains below average at 9.2 billion. 

Major indexes fall 1%, focus shifts to upcoming Powell speech

The Nvidia honeymoon lasted but one short day even if the hot stock went through the roof after hours, which should have led to another big rally today. Instead, all focus shifted once again to frayed nerves over impending bad news coming from Friday’s Jackson Hole speech and it was a big 3-digit dive all day long on the Dow and Nasdaq, and not much better on the S&P.  As today’s expert put it, “As much as investors want to focus on Nvidia, this is still a market that is Fed obsessed” and whether tomorrow’s speech will “mess things up” and turn buyers into sellers.  

Indexes end sharply higher; AI chip maker Nvidia jumps again after the bell

As if to correct for yesterday’s panic selling, today it was full speed ahead as all three indexes rose dramatically, mostly on the strength of Nvidia once again (after a one-day lapse) become The Street’s darling again, getting boosted 3.2% with an additional 9% coming in after the bell. (Please note the graph below showing this year's incredible growth for Nvidia.) The only real mystery is why was yesterday’s 174 point drop in the Dow called “slightly lower” while today’s 184 point jump was called “sharply higher.”  

Dow, S&P 500 end down as US interest-rate worries mount, bank shares slip

All three indexes were on an almost continuous decline all day though at least the Nasdaq was in the black most of the session but closed near zero. The Dow and S&P were in the red most of the day, especially the Dow which closed 3-digits down (and how they call this “slightly lower” is beyond me.)  The S&P downgrading the regional banks again didn’t help at all but the real concern is the fear of more rate hikes as investors hope for clarity from Powell on Friday. 

Nasdaq rallies with Nvidia, tech shares; investors look toward Jackson Hole

Just as tech got a big boost encouraged by optimism over Nvidia, the Dow got slammed pretty hard, down a good 250 points by noon, then beginning a steady recovery the rest of the day to close with only a modest loss as investors await Powell’s remarks from Jackson Hole this Friday. But Nvidia was the savior for the day not only getting a personal boost of a whopping 8.5% but lifting the entire tech index by 2.8%.  But as today’s expert put it, “Nvidia is considered the brand for AI, so the question is, can they deliver?” Volume was below average at 9.75 billion. 

ESG Failure

This week, Consuelo Mack of PBS's WeathTrack program elected to do the segment on the downside of ESG, the investment alternative for those who are interested in promoting social concerns. And though it is always a good thing to get a different perspective on things, I do think it's entirely premature to be declaring a death knell on this relatively new option.  Just like Apple and Microsoft were considered hugely risky in the 1980s, today's ESG companies may well be the Amazons of the future. Still, for your consideration ... 

The Complete Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio

Every now and then they published the complete Warren Buffett portfolio and yesterday's edition of U.S. News Invested was one such occasion. So for those interested in where the world's most successful investor has put his money, enjoy!  

S&P 500 ends near flat as energy, defensive sectors counter megacap declines

It was certainly a seesaw ride on the Dow today going back and forth between red and black several times as investors fled the hi-tech mega-stocks in favor of the more secure and conventional Dow. Both the Nasdaq and S&P started deeply in the red on fears of rate hikes triggered by more and more positive economic reports, but then almost immediately began a recovery to close at almost break-even as investors decided to wait until next week’s Powell speech before jumping the gun on hikes. 

S&P 500, Dow gain on boost from Cisco

Today’s headline was certainly misleading given that all three indexes ended up in the red, the Dow and Nasdaq 3-digits so and for three days in a row, the steepest three day drop since February and March. Continuing positive economic data has increased worries about more rate hikes and thus sent everyone to the exits. Treasury yields hitting their highest in nearly a year didn’t help matters either. The labor market remains tight which is also not good news for rates. Summed up by today’s expert, “Stocks may be choppy in the near term while we wait for either earnings to pick up or yields to come down.” Volume was in line with the 4-week average at 11.2 billion. 

Wall Street stocks down after Fed minutes, bank shares extend losses

The Dow started almost 200 points up this morning but almost immediately started a decline that lasted all day and ended with a nearly 200 point loss.  This was all triggered by Fed minutes which poured cold water on the prevailing optimism of no more rate hikes by showing division among officials on the “no more hikes” scenario and that the priority continues to be to battle inflation. The combo of sticky inflation and a robust economy continues to haunt investors who are trying to place bets on future Fed action. But to put a more positive spin on it, “A little bit of steam is starting to get let out of that rally.”  Per the CBOE, volume was about 12.1 billion. 

Wall Street, oil slide as investors eye rates, China economy

Retail sales increasing by almost double what was forecast renewed fears that the economy was still running way too hot and thus the Fed might continue more hikes.  This triggered an over 1% drop in all three indexes for the day, triple digits on both the Dow and Nasdaq and both Russia and China also hiking rates did nothing but further contribute to jitters. Per the CBOE, volume was 10.3 billion. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq end higher as Nvidia surge leads megacap gains

The cyclical Dow was all over the place today moving between red and black several times and going more than 100 points in the red as late as 3 pm before surging in the final hour to a modest gain. The same was not true of the tech-bound S&P and Nasdaq which were on the upswing all day on the strength of Morgan Stanley giving Nvidia good grades which strengthened speculation that the company’s up and coming report would be a blockbuster and pushing the entire tech index higher. Now all eyes are on Q2 reports coming from retailers this week and how that might impact rates. Currently, the odds are 89% that there will be no rate hike next month and Goldman Sachs has forecasted the first rate cuts to come in Q2 ’24.  Volume was considerably below average at 9.7 billion. 

Classic Investment Advice

From our friends at PBS's WealthTrack comes a program this week resurrecting the classic investment text "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" by ace Princeton professor Burton Malkiel, published 50 years, and presents an extraordinary compelling case to do the opposite of what the "experts" are doing. I read this book when I was in grad school in the late 1970s. It had a great influence on me.  Hope everyone enjoyed the weekend.  

9 of the Best Bond ETFs to Buy Now

With the safety and consistency of bonds becoming increasingly more attractive relative to stocks, here are the latest recommendations for Bond ETFs per U.S. News Invested.  

Big tech losses sink Nasdaq, S&P as US Treasury yields rise

It was day full of volatility with the indexes swinging back and forth like crazy all day long, the Nasdaq particularly hard hit by a much higher than expected PPI reading (0.8% vs last month’s 0.2%), thus pushing up Treasury yields and pushing down all of tech. Though the semi index had eight losses in the last nine sessions, the good news was “with the run tech has had, it’s hard not to want to do a little profit taking.” The other good news is a consensus that the market had already priced in all this bad news which means there were no surprises.  Volume was below average at about 10.2 billion. 

Wall Street ends flat, after pop from July inflation data fizzles

A euphoric rise in all three indexes in the first half hour of trading this morning, the Dow surging some 450 points, on milder-then-feared inflation numbers quickly disappeared. A massive selloff began at 10 a.m. that lasted the rest of the day and cost all the indexes most of their gains, closing near break-even. This has been attributed to premature optimism over the summary number but, later in the day, a closer look at the core number revealed that inflation remains a significant problem. And the San Francisco Fed prez reiterating that more progress was needed sealed the deal.  

Wall Street ends lower as investors await US inflation data

What a wild day for nerves with all the indexes wildly gyrating between big sell off and big rallies twice during the session.  Between 11 and 12, the Dow dropped about 250 points, then from 12 to 2:30 rose over 300 points, then dropped 250 points before close, most of it in the final half hour. Some of this was a continuing sell off in the banking sector with the market still reacting to Tuesday’s Moody downgrades. But a larger part was today’s dismal report that July saw an historic high in consumer credit card debt, now past the $1 trillion mark.

Wall St ends lower after bank rating cuts spark wider sell-off

With Moody’s downgrading several lenders and thus sparking renewed concerns over the health of the banking system after a long period of investors feeling the banks were stable, today’s action sparked a widespread selloff that saw 3-digit drops in both the Dow and S&P and with the S&P banking index dropping 2.5% for year, an astounding 1.1% of that or 44% today alone. But the indexes were all down far lower in the early morning, the Dow down almost 500 points at 10:30 a.m. before rebounding the rest of the day. Hopefully, these rebounds indicate that the downgrades are not seen as serious as they were earlier and that Wednesday will be a better day.  Volume was in line with recent averages at 10.94 billion. 

Wall St closes up, regains ground as US inflation report nears

After last week’s losses prompted a flurry of profit-taking after a long period of gains, today it was back to picking up bargains, that combined with optimism over this Thursday’s upcoming inflation report. After a short period of caution, “enough people might be looking to put some money to work.”  It was a shot straight up on all three indexes, the Dow up an impressive 407 points, tech being a little more subdued with the Fed still predicting more rate hikes though the New York prez said a break could be coming as soon as early 2024.  The Nasdaq has snapped a four session losing streak, the S&P too. Q2 S&P is humming along with 79% of 422 companies beating estimates. Volume was below average at 9.9 billion. 

7 of the Best High-Dividend ETFs

Tonight, for those of you preferring lower-risk investments, here is the latest list of quality high-dividend ETFs.  Hope you all enjoyed this beautiful weekend.  

9 Short Squeeze Stocks That Could Take Off in August

A few more recommendations for stocks for those preferring to ride a bit more on the wild side.  Tomorrow, recommendations with a more conservative bent.  

Wall Street ends lower after US jobs report; Apple weighs

The indexes were doing great until about 1 pm, the Dow up some 230 points, then everything fell through the floor with the market closing well into the red. Job gains at 187,000 were little changed from the prior month as was average wage growth, showing a slowing in the labor market. (See graph below.) This should have been taken as good news for the tight job market but was not and additional disappointing news from Apple brought the market down.

Wall Street closes near flat as Treasury yields surge

The market swung wildly today, the Dow down some 160 points in the morning, then zooming up 230 points by 1 pm before crashing again and closing in the red. The 10-year Treasury rose to almost 4.2% today, the highest since November, and as yields go, stocks go the opposite. Today’s jobs report reaffirmed a continuing tight labor market but the big jobs report comes Friday.  The Q2 earnings forecast has today been upgraded again to a minus 5%, a huge change from last week’s minus 7.9%. Volume was considerably above average at about 12.1 billion. 

Wall Street ends down, investors step back after Fitch US rating cut

Yesterday, Fitch lowered the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+ and that caused a massive sell off today with the Dow and Nasdaq losing 3-digits each. The downgrade pushed the Treasury yield to its highest in nine months which hit tech rather hard bringing the sector down 2.6%. Oddly enough, the reaction was rather positive with consensus being that the downgrade is unlikely to put a sustained drag on the market as the economy is now stronger than when the S&P downgraded the U.S. in 2011. 

S&P 500, Nasdaq end lower on first day of August in busy earnings week

It was a day of modest gains on the Dow and modest losses on the Nasdaq and S&P as the markets ended lower on the first day of what has historically been the weak month of August. The S&P did hit a 16-month high and is now less than 5% away from its record high January 3, 2022. Q2 losses have also now been upgraded to a minus 5.9% vs a minus 7.9% last week. New factory orders are improving and layoffs accelerating, both good news on the inflation front. Volume is a little below average at 10.45 billion.