Mario Giannini on the Art of Investing

Now here's something that's really spooky for Halloween.  From today's posting on Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture blog, I give you a one-hour podcast on everything you need to know about the Art of Investing from the CEO of the private equity firm Hamilton Lane, a firm overseeing $500 billion in privately invested assets. So let's see what a guy with this kind of a track record has to say. There's a blue moon out there right now so there's no better time to listen to it.  Enjoy!  

Tech slide hits Wall Street as coronavirus cases spiral

What a wild ride today with the Dow down 700 points at times but recovering in the last hour to recover all but 157. Lately it’s been the triple threat of stimulus-COVID-election. Today add a fourth threat – overbought tech!  That’s what happened today. It’s been reported since the start of the pandemic that tech is a safe haven since demand for it has grown with everyone stuck at home. Today the market decided that the whole sector is overvalued and about to be repriced; thus Apple, Facebook and Amazon all took a hit today. And it doesn’t help matters that today the infection rate passed the 9 million mark and the VIX hit a 20-week high, up from 15 weeks yesterday. The S&P has now fallen 9.7% from its September high and Apple reported its steepest drop in iPhone sales in two years. The bright spot remains Q3. At the halfway mark 86.2% of companies have beaten estimates and the profits forecast has again been upgraded, today to a 10.3% reduction versus Wednesday’s 14.8 percent.  Nerves continue to be frayed so volume is once again way above average at 10.3 billion as everyone sells as a hedge against possible bad news on Tuesday.  

Wall Street rebounds as market eyes tech results, strong U.S. data

The market was looking ever so desperately for some signs of hope today and found enough to boost it 139 points as good economic reports calmed jitters about coronavirus. The economy grew at a record pace in Q3 (but of course, it started at rock bottom), unemployment claims fell and tech giants Amazon and Alphabet had good Q3 revenue supporting the notion that tech companies have benefited from people being stuck at home during the pandemic. But nerves are still frayed as reflected in the VIX surging to a 15 week high. At least volume has returned to a normal average of 9.7 billion versus yesterday’s enormous 11 billion. 

Wall Street sinks 3%, Dow at late July lows as pandemic surges

Nope!  The markets are not quite ready to calm down yet, not with this perfect trifecta of no stimulus, coronavirus spiraling, and election uncertainty. They were hoping Monday was the worst of it but, truly, it’s just going to keep going until the election is settled. And the chances of it being settled before next Friday are slim. The short-sellers are going to make out on this one. Twelve states have set hospitalization records, Germany and France are going into another lockdown, and as today’s expert says, “Obviously the virus is out of control.”  The Dow was going down all day, down almost 700 by 3:30, then dove more than 200 more points in the final half hour due to concerns that there will be no declared winner come Tuesday night, adding to worries that the election might be contested, for a long while now considered the worst-cast scenario.  Even tech lost today. The good news:  Q3 continues to go better than expected and today was upgraded again from a 16.2% loss yesterday to a 14.8% loss today.  Volume, which has been running below average for some time now was way above average today at 11 billion. Yes! Everyone’s nervous! 

S&P 500, Dow slip on worries about earnings, U.S. stimulus outlook

It was another sell off today, again by the combo of lack of stimulus, rising coronavirus, and election uncertainty, but at least today not nearly as severe as yesterday with the Dow losing 222 points and tech even leading the Nasdaq to a gain of 72 points. The fear gauge rose to its highest level in nearly two months on election jitters, mainly due to some battleground states getting closer to a draw.  The Q3 earnings forecast has again been revised upwards to now a 16.2% loss.  Volume was 8.2 billion, again below the 4-week average as more investors stay on the sidelines awaiting more positive news and less uncertainty. 

Wall Street closes down on soaring virus cases, U.S. stimulus worries

It’s the same old story – the fall of stimulus and the rise of COVID-19, except that today investors took it a lot more seriously and drove all three indexes down, the Dow a whopping 650 points. In a word used by today’s expert, investors are “unnerved.” The good news is that all the uncertainty is keeping everyone on the sidelines so volume remains on the light side at 8.7 billion as it has been as reflected in the 4-week average of 8.9 billion.  The fear gauge is at a 7 week high but with Q3 heading into its busiest week, 139 S&P companies have reported with 83% beating estimates. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.23.20 (plus Biden’s and Trump’s Tax Plans)

Below is the usual weekly summation, the main positives being that stimulus talks continue and jobless claims fell.  As usual, the main negative is the continuing rapid spikes in COVID cases, particularly in rural areas.  The bonus this Sunday night is a very good article from this week's Barron's explaining in detail the similarities and differences between the two candidates' tax plans.  Hope everyone got through the chilly and wet weekend.  

WORKING WITH WILLIAM O’NEIL

Just a little heads-up on an upcoming AAII webinar with IBD's Amy Smith on Tuesday, November 10th at 7 p.m. Since it's on ZOOM, attendance is limited to 300 so preregistration is required. However, if registration exceeds the maximum, a recording of the webinar will be made available.  Two week's notice here. 

S&P, Nasdaq close higher as stimulus talks in spotlight

A perfect V-shaped curve today with the Dow dropping 200 points by around noon, and then recovering most of the 200 during the afternoon to close down just 28 points.  It dove because of angst over stimulus negotiations and then rose because of hope over the same. So yesterday’s claim that the market is now ignoring this issue is evidently premature as it appears to still be very much in play and very much influencing the ups and downs. A record 50 million Americans have now cast ballots and the consensus is that Thursday’s debate did not move the needle. Q3 moves steadily along with today 135 of the S&P companies having reported and 84% beating estimates. At 7.8 billion, volume remains below the 9.0 billion 4-week average. 

Wall Street closes higher, trade choppy as U.S. stimulus talks eyed

Wall Street has pretty much gotten to the point of ignoring the stimulus debates now, weary of the on-again off-again nature of the negotiations but still confident there will eventually be a package. So today it was not the talk of “pretty soon” that starting the market upward but the news of fewer Americans filing for unemployment than expected that boosted the Dow 154 points.  About 20% of S&P companies have now reported with 84% beating estimates. Volume was 8.8 billion, still below the 4-week average.

S&P ends choppy session lower as U.S. stimulus talks drag on

A very choppy session that was up almost 150 early in the morning and up almost 50 in the final hour only to come crashing down again to close almost a hundred in the red, all revolving around hopes for a stimulus deal before it became obvious in the late afternoon that there would be no deal today. There is still hope that a deal can be reached Thursday and investors remain very optimistic that there will be a deal shortly after the election. As for Q3, 84 companies have reported with nearly 86% beating estimates. Volume was 8.8 billion, still below the 4-week average. 

Wall Street shares end higher on stimulus optimism

Yesterday they said that Tuesday was the last day that it was possible to reach agreement on stimulus and pass it in time for the election. Today they announced they were close and could possibly have a deal by the end of the week. Though it ran contrary to yesterday’s, it was enough to shoot the Dow up another 113 points, recovering some of yesterday’s big sell off.  The antitrust suit against Google fell on deaf ears; not only is no one taking it seriously but it actually boosted Alphabet’s stock by 1.4 percent. Q3 now has 66 companies reporting with 86% beating forecasts. 8.7 billion shares were traded. 

Wall Street closes lower as stimulus deadline nears without deal

Today it was a triple play of doubts on stimulus, doubts on controlling the sharply rising cases of coronavirus and doubts about a contested election that drove the all three indexes down, the Dow down 410 points. While the stimulus is a minor concern with investors confident that there will be a package sooner or later, there are grave concerns about the pandemic spiraling upwards and whether Trump will accept the election if he loses. COVID cases rose 13% last week, the highest since the summer peak. The fear gauge is up for the sixth straight session.  But volume remains below the 4-week average at 8.7 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 10.16.20 (plus The 200 Year History of U.S. Interest Rates)

Here we go again with the weekly summation, the main positive being increasing signs of a decisive election result, the big negative remaining that jobless claims continue to rise (and, of course - the historic first! -- in 7 decades of televised presidential debates, the first ever to be canceled.) The bonus this Sunday is another cool little graphic that puts things into badly needed perspective -- a visual on the 200 year history of interest rates in the United States.  Enjoy and hope you all enjoyed your weekend.  

Recession? Pandemic? Neither Are Stopping Businesses Starting

For this chilly October weekend, I thought it would be appropriate to provide a graphic that should warm everyone's cockles. Despite all the dire news about the damage that the pandemic has caused to the economy overall and to businesses in particular, here is a very telling chart that demonstrates that the business environment is not in nearly as dire shape as thought.  This was posted this morning on Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture blog site.  So relax and have a glass of wine on the house.  

Dow advances, S&P ekes out gain as vaccine timeline comes into focus

The Dow and S&P broke their three day losing streak and all three indexes posted gains for the week. Today’s impetus was Pfizer’s announcement that their vaccine might be ready for U.S. authorization as soon as the end of November which gave the market a much wanted timeline and sent Pfizer’s stock up almost 4 percent. Other good news included retail sales zooming past forecasts and the unexpected surprise of consumer confidence not just holding steady but actually going up despite some dire potential outcomes.  Q3 is just getting underway with 49 companies reporting and 86% of these beating forecasts, though admittedly the forecasts have all set a low bar. Volume was again below average at 8.8 billion. 

S&P 500 ends lower as investors eye stimulus impasse

The Dow initially dove about 300 points out the gate but then spent the rest of the session recovering to close almost even. The drop was triggered by new unemployment claims reaching a two-month high and thus compounding economic recovery worries that have been further exacerbated by the lack of a stimulus package to help the unemployed. As today’s expert said, “it will be difficult for unemployment to make a lot of positive headway because of the lack of stimulus.” Indexes dipped for a third straight day. The positive news is that the market is more focused now on the potential benefits that a Biden presidency would bring rather than the fear of tax hikes.  But the market is much more interested in the election producing a definitive victor rather than who wins. Another positive development is that the Q3 earnings forecast has been upgraded to a 19% loss from the 25% tumble estimated on July 1^st. Volume remains below average at 8.1 billion. 

Wall Street ends down after Mnuchin dims stimulus hopes

It was another day of sell off jitters that brought all the indexes down as much as yesterday when Mnuchin commented that a stimulus deal before the election was unlikely. The good news is that the stimulus has already been priced into the market so it’s really just a question of how much and when. But there remains great confidence that it will happen. B of A, Wells Fargo and United Health all dropped today with Q3 but despite that the Q3 earnings forecast has again been upgraded from a 19.6% loss yesterday to a 19.0% loss today. After only a handful of companies reporting, the forecast has already been upgraded from 21% to 19% or nearly 10 percent. Volume remains below average at 8.2 billion. 

Wall Street closes lower on vaccine delay, dampened stimulus hopes

One person in the vaccine trials gets sick so there’s a temporary halt which will likely last just a week or two. And the White House’s trimmed down stimulus package got rejected by the Democrats as being woefully inadequate for addressing the key problems. And even though both JP Morgan and Citigroup turned in Q3 reports that beat estimates, low interest rates dropped their respective share values. Add it all up and it amounted to all three indexes in the red, the Dow down 157 points. The further illogic behind today’s sell off is that, despite the two giant banks losing share value, the Q3 forecast has been changed today from a 21% loss in earnings to a 19.6% loss.  Coming later this week will be reports from giants BofA, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, United Health Group, United Airlines, Morgan Stanley and Honeywell.  Volume is still below average at 8.5 billion. 

Apple and Amazon drive rally on Wall Street By Noel Randewich

Tech lead once again with Amazon and Apple pushing all three indexes substantially northward, the Dow up 250. There remains optimism over some sort of pandemic relief bill and investors are increasingly warming to the prospect of a Biden presidency. The odds-makers according to RealClearPolitics now put the bets favoring a Biden win at 2 to 1. Q3 starts this week with two of the biggest banks reporting Tuesday. The forecast is for a 21% decline in earnings. But just like in Q2, the bar has been set so low that estimates will probably be beaten, which of course will send the market up. (It’s like they deliberately exaggerate earnings losses in order to force stock prices up. Has anyone ever done a study whether the analysts who makes these forecasts are buying like crazy just before reporting starts?)  Volume was again below average at 8.2 billion, but that would be expected just before Q3 data comes in. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.9.20 (plus How Your Media Diet Influences Your Views)

Below is the weekly summation, the positive being that the feared prospect of a contested election seems less and less likely; the main negative being -- WTF can't Trump just lay low for a few more days and get completely better? Plus there are the usual negatives that jobless claims came in above the forecast and job openings below the forecast. 

POWERFUL ECONOMIC COMEBACK

Here's something I knew few of you could resist -- a (gasp!) optimistic report on our economic outlook. That's why we watch PBS!  Top economist Nancy Lazar talks about why we are going to be back to pre-pandemic levels in record time. I'll just say that even her so-called "optimistic" prediction of a full recovery in just four years seems a bit long in the tooth. 

Wall Street finishes up as stimulus talks continue

Again we had another straight-up day with the Dow gaining 161 points, enough to drive the S&P and Nasdaq to their biggest weekly percentage gains in three months as optimism grew for a stimulus package. As today’s expert said, “The market’s reacting well to Trump’s sudden turnaround,” validating that trading is being driven by headlines on fiscal aid. Volume remains below average at 8.9 billion. 

Wall Street ends higher as Trump boosts hopes of stimulus

Compared to recent days it was a modest bump of 122 points on the Dow today as there was continued optimism over stimulus but very much tempered by weak labor numbers that showed the market was making little headway in getting the millions of pandemic-related unemployed back on the job. Meanwhile, investors are beginning to warm up to Biden, being very much more afraid of a contested election than of a Biden victory, only hoping that a Biden win will be decisive. Volume remains below the 4-week average at 8.9 billion. 

Wall Street ends higher on hope that partial coronavirus stimulus deal may occur

During market hours yesterday, Trump stated that he was killing the stimulus bill until after the election and the market sank 600 points. Then, after hours, he reversed course and urged the passage of another stimulus package. It’s like he watches the ticker tape and when he sees something he says driving the market down, he turns around and takes it all back. Anyway the Dow had a field day today surging 530 points on the reversal that gave investors new hope. Also helping the market was the new view, stated by today’s expert, that “focusing on the potential positives that would come from a Democratic White House and not the stereotypical negative view for the stock market that was maybe in vogue three months ago.”  Q3 reporting starts next week and S&P earnings are expected to contract 21 percent. Volume was below average at just under 9 billion. 

Wall Street ends down 1% after Trump calls off coronavirus economic relief talks

Just as good news yesterday boosted the Dow 465 points, some truly bad news (at least bad according to everyone from Wall Street to the Fed) sank the index 600 points (after an initial rally that ultimately closed the Dow down 375 points) when Trump announced that he had instructed Republican lawmakers to discontinue negotiations with the Democrats on the stimulus bill, thereby assuring there would be no stimulus until after the election (and then, he made clear, only if he wins; otherwise we’re looking at January!) Fed Chair Powell stated that “the domestic rebound could still slip into a downward spiral if the coronavirus is not effectively controlled and growth sustained.”  It was a shock to everyone and triggered a selling spree at above average volume of 10.5 billion. 

Wall Street gains as Trump to leave hospital, investors hope for stimulus

The prospect of Trump’s speedy recovery with the announcement that he would be returning to the White House today (which in fact happened at 6:37 p.m.), potential for the two parties to reach agreement on a stimulus bill, and the positive economic news of the services sector reaching and even exceeding pre-pandemic levels was more than enough to boost the Dow 465 points.  (I’m not sure how the new services data jives with the reality that so many small businesses, most of which are in the services sector, have gone bankrupt.) There remains considerable concern that Trump left the hospital too early as the doctors have been very clear that he is not at all out of the woods yet and they won’t have a better idea on that score until the end of this weekend.  Volume is below average at just under 8.5 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.2.20 (plus Making Big Purchases)

So here's the weekly summation, the main positives that the markets continue to stabilize and unemployment continues to decline.  The main negative, of course, is Trump testing positive for COVID and, unfortunately, this went to press before the news broke on Friday of his hospitalization. Since the late news tonight is that he may be sent home as early as tomorrow, suggesting they may be releasing him too early, who knows how the market might react tomorrow?  

Today's AAII Zoom Webinar on Taxation In Retirement

 Today's AAII Zoom webinar on Taxation In Retirement was canceled to a defective Zoom link.  Stay tuned for an announcement regarding rescheduling.  Meanwhile, enjoy the (wet) weekend.  

Wall Street closes sharply lower as Trump tests positive for coronavirus

The market opened today with the already overnight breaking news that Trump had contracted COVID-19. And the market immediately sank almost 300 points. But evidently investors didn’t find the news too surprising since there was also an almost immediate trend to the upside achieving full recovery shortly after noon.  News that the House had passed a stimulus package (though unlikely to be approved by the Senate) helped to the upside but then the employment news of only 661,000 new jobs added in September, below forecast and the slowest increase since May, put additional pressure to the downside to ultimately close the Dow down 134 points. We remain a long ways from regaining the 22 million jobs lost in this shutdown. Of course, the big elephant in the room is that the really big news of Trump in the space of less than 18 hours since announcing his infection with only mild symptoms to being taken to the hospital didn’t hit until after the market closed so Trump’s progress will be monitored very closely this weekend and who knows how the markets will react come Monday.  So there was much uncertainty today and that was reflected in the below average volume of 9.3 billion. 

Wall Street ends choppy session higher as stimulus hopes ebb and flow

It was a wild ride today with the Dow swinging back and forth hundreds of points to finally settle at a very modest 35 point gain as new hopes for a stimulus bill got tempered with disappointing data on jobless benefits and consumer spending. Yesterday we got a big boost from positive economic data, today a whipsaw from lukewarm numbers. Everyone continues running to big tech for safety. Q3 reporting starts in two weeks with the forecast of a 21% drop in S&P earnings. Nobody’s holding their breath on Congress anymore. Volume was again a little below average at 9.5 billion.