Wall Street closes higher as stimulus talks progress

There was surprisingly good economic news today which shot the Dow up a big 329 points as both employment and new home sales came in way above expectations. This added to promising developments in stimulus talks wrapped September with the first monthly decline since March but ending Q3 with gains, the S&P especially having its biggest two-quarter winning streak in 11 years, the Nasdaq in 20 years.  Volume was modestly above the 4-week average at just under 10.4 billion. 

Wall Street closes lower, ending three-day rally ahead of U.S. presidential debate

A 3-digit loss to the low end on the Dow today with the index shedding 131 points as investors were selling ahead of the first presidential debate assuming it will move the market in the morning. But despite this fence-sitting, the good news were the Goldman-Sachs analysts who concluded that a Democratic win, even a big win like a sweep, would benefit the market and, better yet, no matter who wins, the market will be fine. Because of the fence-sitting, volume was again below the 4-week average at 8.3 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher as energy, financials lead broad rally

It was another big 3-digit day as the Dow rose 410 points as bargain hunters got back on a buying spree. And even though September will almost certainly end with the indexes having their first monthly loss since March, both the S&P and Nasdaq are on their best two-quarter winning streaks in years – 11 for the S&P, 20 for the Nasdaq. This is despite the fact that this coronavirus triggered recession is about to enter its ninth month.  Volume was below the 4-week average at 8.7 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.25.20 (plus 8 Best Consumer Staples Stocks)

Below is the weekly summation, the main positive being that the markets began the recovery from the deep sell off, the main negative (besides the political news) being that jobless claims continue on the rise.  The bonus this Sunday night is the latest issue of U.S. News Invested.  When the stock market is unstable, the best place to be is in the so-called "defensive" stocks, that is the traditional conventional stocks that are the backbone of the economy -- industrials, utilities, real estate, consumer staples.  And courtesy of U.S. News Invested, this week we have a fresh list of the best and most highly rated stocks in that arena.  For your consideration ... 

7 Lessons We’ve Learned From Wall Street’s Greatest Thinkers

Once again from AAII we bring you another mini-course on investing, in this case 7 lessons from the best of Wall Street.  Take a look and see if it piques your interest in their stock screening service, a 6 month trial included with this lesson.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Wall Street ends higher as tech rally squashes virus fears, but S&P down for week

We had another 3-digit gain on the Dow with a big boost from tech proving once again that it remains the investment of choice.  After a month-long rout with both the Dow and S&P down for the fourth straight week, the great news today is the opinion of one expert, “The reality is that 2021 is going to be a much higher stock market and you’re probably going to see tech still lead the way.”  Tech is still seen as the one sector that will do well regardless of which way the pandemic swings. Today value was abandoned in favor of growth. But traditional risk-haven value stocks will always be the hedge on the down days.  Volume was below average at just under 8.9 billion. 

Wall Street closes up on tech rally despite mixed signs on economic rebound

It was a wild day of swing trading with the Dow down about 250 points in the morning and up about 350 in the afternoon to finally settle at a modest 52 point gain at close.  As today’s expert pointed out, market sentiment has sharply changed and “fear of missing out has turned into fear of losing.”  The everyday investor is being “rightfully punished” for thinking that you can just “buy stocks out of a hat thinking stocks only go up.”  Part of the buying was triggered by a new stimulus bill that could be voted on next week and the best home sales in 14 years.  Part of the selling was based on an increase in jobless benefits.  The good news per another expert is that “the economy is on a path to a powerful V-shaped recovery as seen in auto sales, the housing market and overall consumer spending. All of the inventory rebuilding is starting, all of the things you want to see are happening.”  The even better news is that “the VIX has not yet reached levels that would suggest a continued strong move to the downside.”  Volume was above average at just over 10.4 billion. 

Wall Street closes lower on fears of a slowing economy

It was another big rout today bringing the Dow down another 525 points with doubts over another stimulus package and dampened hopes for a fast recovery weighing heavily again on tech. The economy has recovered about 80% of its pre-pandemic activity but, without further stimulus, there will be no normalcy until a vaccine is here.  As today’s expert said, “We’re still doing it [heading for recovery] but the progress is way slower than it was in the first three months.”  Another expert said, “The longer we go without more stimulus, the harder it will be to sustain the gains in the economy.”  Good data showing gains in factories was outbid by bad data showing a slowdown in services.  Volume in today’s sell off was again way up at just over 10 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher on Amazon boost, despite economic worries

The markets had a little bit of a bounce back today with the Dow gaining 140 points even though the same problems that caused the big sell off yesterday are still very much in evidence – the likely delay in stimulus, the rising number of pandemic cases dampening the hopes for a fast recovery, and the fears of new lockdowns in Europe.  Perhaps the reason for today’s modest rally is best expressed by today’s expert, “These are short-term fears that will go away because I think there’s quite a bit of undertow to the upside.”  Still investors are bracing for increasing volatility from growing political uncertainty which has been greatly sharpened by the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Volume was down today to just under 8.7 billion shares traded. 

Wall St ends lower on lockdown fears, likely delay of stimulus

There was nothing but bad news today which explains why the Dow dumped 509 points, and as much as 900 during the session.  Worries about a second wave in Europe and the likelihood of no new stimulus until after the election, now virtually guaranteed by the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, concerns about the fate of the ACA and the implications for the healthcare sector and general election-related jitters, particularly the prospect of a delayed and contested outcome all contributed to market malaise. The VIX is way up, the S&P way down and once again flirting with correction territory. And decline was not just in tech today but also in the traditional value sectors.  All in all, nothing good to report and even volume was discouraging being unusually high at 10.6 billion, and we don’t have quadruple witching to blame for it this time. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 9.18.20 (plus 9-23-20 AAII Fund Strategy webinar)

Below is the usual weekly summation, the main positive being the continuing progress on pandemic vaccines and treatments, the main negative being still no stimulus package. The Sunday bonus this weekend is a heads up on an AAII one hour live webinar that will be held on Wednesday evening at 8:30 p.m.  The topic is "The Best 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4 Fund Strategy" and is being presented by Paul Merriman. Click on the link below to register. Have a great week! 

SOCIAL SECURITY MAXIMIZATION

For your weekend reading I bring back a familiar topic. As discussed on this recent segment of PBS's WealthTrack, here is the latest on how to maximize your Social Security benefits in your retirement and, since most of us are recent retirees, this should be valuable. Enjoy the rest of this beautiful weekend.  

Wall Street posts third week of declines as tech slide drags on

For the third day in a row the big sell off out of tech continues dropping the Dow another 244 points and the Nasdaq 117 marking a rapid decline since the peak on September 2^nd, the biggest weekly losing streak for all three indexes in a year. The consensus remains that it’s all just some very overdue profit-taking. There’s also some caution being exercised in light of the new spikes in coronavirus overseas hinting at the much feared second wave. (Is it really a second wave when the first wave never ended?)  Because today marked the quarterly expiration of options contracts, the so-called “quadruple witching” effect has volume greatly exaggerated at over 14 billion.  We’ll have to wait until Monday to find out what the real volume is.  Have a good weekend. 

Wall Street falls as tech sells off again, jobless claims still high

A stubbornly high jobless rate and the continuing rotation from tech to value brought the Dow down 130 points and the Nasdaq 140. The Nasdaq now down 10% from its recent record has now confirmed a correction that began September 2^nd. But as today’s expert points out, “They had an incredible last week of August and this is a rational profit-taking scenario at the moment.” The consensus remains that tech names will bounce back.  The Fed has outlined a litany of conditions that must be in place before they will declare the economy recovered and employment to be full. Among these are wage growth, workforce participation, and less disparities in minority joblessness.  Volume was again a little above the 4-week average at 9.7 billion. 

S&P 500 ends down after late reversal despite Fed's low-rate stance

The difference between yesterday and today was that yesterday the market opened up big, then fell to close at break-even.  Today the market was up big in the afternoon, then fell once again to close at break-even.  The gains were triggered by the Fed offering accommodative policy even more dovish than investors had hoped for.  The losses were triggered by the continuing rotation out of tech and into value.  Or as today’s expert said, “What you’re seeing is some profit-taking in the tech sector. That’s where the selling is.”  The good news is that the Dow Transportation Average, widely viewed as a barometer of the economy, was up almost 1% today.  Volume was a little above the 4-week average at 9.8 billion. 

S&P 500 ends higher on growing hopes Fed will stay accommodative

After a 300 point boost for the Dow right out the gate, investors abandoned the buying spree throughout the day ending the session at break-even. The Nasdaq and S&P did well though on optimism that the Fed’s last policy meeting before the election would end tomorrow with a continuing accommodation on inflation. There really was no good explanation given for the 300 point sell off after the morning high, just the good news about upcoming econ data expected to be positive and today’s news that factory output was way up for August.  Volume was again below the 4-week average at just under 9 billion. 

Wall Street closes broadly higher on deal news, vaccine hopes

It was another big boom today with the Dow gaining 327 points on widely exuberant investor optimism over progress on a vaccine, which of course translates into progress to getting back to pre-pandemic normals. Some rather aggressive merger-related news also stoked optimism that there was a hopeful future. After two straight weeks of losses, investors today bought heavily into both tech and value. Coming up will be the Fed’s final meeting before the election. Volume was below recent averages at 8.7 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events, 9.11.20 (plus 10 of the Best Stocks to Buy for 2020)

Below is the usual Sunday night weekly summation, the main positive being the quick recovery the markets made from the big sell off.  The big negative besides of course the expose of Bob Woodward's new book about Trump is that jobless claims have remained unchanged.  The markets have been volatile for quite a long time now but particularly so in the past few weeks.  In light of this, the bonus this Sunday is the latest edition of U.S. News Invested highlighting the ten best performing stocks for 2020, the perfect antidote for market instability.  Have a great week.  

AAII Guidelines for Adding and Removing Stocks Part 2

Last weekend I shared Part 1 of the recent AAII articles on selection and timing criteria for adding and removing stocks. This weekend I bring you Part 2 below.  As always you will need to be a member of AAII to access the full article, which I assume you all are, and it may be worth joining just for this mini-course on the key elements of trading.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Dow ends higher but Wall Street posts second straight weekly drop on tech slide

Fri 9-11-20

A 131 point gain on the Dow  put the tech sector in its biggest weekly decline since March so investors know that the nervousness is not yet over. But the optimists took the point of view that this happens once a month or so and that “these companies are doing well during the pandemic” so don’t be surprised when money comes back to them.  The consensus remains that the recent slump is merely a consolidation after “a stunning five month rally.”  Volume was 8.9 billion. 

Wall Street ends lower as tech struggles resume

It was another black day with three-digit losses for both the Dow and Nasdaq almost wiping out all of yesterday’s gains as investors once again fled from tech and the three big FAANG stocks Apple, Microsoft and Amazon all falling almost 3 percent.  Unemployment claims remain high and the new Republican led relief bill was killed in the Senate by Democrats for not being nearly enough.  McConnell today conceded that continued Republican control of the Senate is no longer a sure thing and volatility remains near a 3-month high.  The good news is that consensus remains that the recent sell off is more due to mere turbulence than any trend toward a deep slide.  And despite the sell offs, tech still remains up 24% for the year making it still the best bet. Volume was close to the 4-week average at 9.7 billion. 

Wall Street ends higher on tech rally to snap three-day skid

After three very down days, the indexes sprang back today with investors picking up major bargains in the tech companies with the big FAANG stocks rising by at least 3% each. The sentiment remains that these are companies that will be around whatever happens with COVID and, despite the scare that Japan’s SoftBank threw at the market last week, that tech isn’t going anywhere.  Growth stocks today outperformed value by more than 2 to 1.  Volume was a little below average at 8.9 billion. 

Stocks end lower as tech swoon persists, Tesla in historic drop

The big tech sell off of the past two weeks continued in earnest today with the Dow losing 632 points and the Nasdaq 465.  Investors are still digesting the very bad news broken last week that Japan’s Softbank manipulated the options market and thus deliberately artificially inflated tech valuations. Today alone tech dropped nearly 5% adding to the worst 3-day performance since mid-March.  The good news is that despite this slump, tech remains the best performer of the year.  The better news is that investors are realizing today that despite the options bets against tech, there were likely billions of dollars of long positions to hedge against the options so the damage may not be as bad as feared.  The bad news is that the infamous FAANG companies have lost more than a trillion dollars since September 2^nd.  Volume was above average at just under 10.5 billion.  

A Labor Day Special: 8 Personal Finance Lessons from Benjamin Franklin

 Happy Labor Day everyone! My computer gets more and more unstable by the hour so any day now I may have to put this blog on suspension, perhaps as early as tomorrow.  Meanwhile, Barry Ritholtz posted a number of interesting looking reads on his Big Picture blog today. I thought that considering what an accomplished entrepreneur Benjamin Franklin was, that the most fitting one for this holiday was the article on his personal finance lessons. At nearly 3,000 words it's a long read but worthwhile. I include the link to the other nine articles if anyone's interested.  Hope you enjoyed your final holiday of the summer.  At least the temps will be quite comfortable this week.  

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.4.20 (plus "The AAII Way" of Buy and Sell Rules)

Below is the weekly summation and though this is a holiday weekend and I would ordinarily do this at the end of the holiday, I'm doing it tonight since my computer's been flaky. I may not be able to do it Monday night. The positives are continued modest economic recovery with jobless claims, unemployment and layoffs all down from July.  The big negative of course was Thursday, the worst trading day since the March crash.  The bonus this Sunday is yet another informative article from the AAII this time on the AAII strategy for making rules for buying and selling, regardless of whether you're a short-term trader or buy-and-hold.  Have a great Labor Day!  

AAII Screening on Faber’s Unique Approach to Yield Investing

Welcome to Labor Day weekend and just in case you have nothing better to do for the holiday, I bring back our old friend Mebane Faber who wrote several of the books our mentor Bert Ward recommended for us in the FastTrack course we took 10 years ago next month. (Did we imagine we'd still be a "group" ten years later?) For your reading I submit a September 1st article from the AAII on Faber's approach to yield investing. The link can be accessed by members only but I assume since we all met in AAII and found the class through AAII and continued to network via AAII, that most if not all are members.  Enjoy the weekend.  

Wall Street ends lower as Nasdaq rout persists

The selloff continues, though not nearly as severe, in a wild ride today up over 200 first thing and then down over 500 before noon before recovering to even just shortly before close, then diving 159 points again.  So though it was another big down day, it still ended way above the session low. Yesterday was triggered by fears that tech might be overvaluated. Today was triggered by a report from Japan’s Softbank that this was in fact the case. The good news is that, though the selling was fierce, the market did stabilize. The jobs report showed that unemployment had improved to 8.4% from 10.2 in July but was neither strong enough to provide reassurances of a reliable recovery nor weak enough to make a dent in the stimulus package standoff in Congress.  There are fears that today is but a preview of the next two months heading into the election.  Volume was again way above the 4-week average at 11.3 billion.

Tech tumble jams Wall Street into reverse; sharpest fall since June

With the indexes breaking records day after day, it was only a matter of time before there was a pullback. And wouldn’t you know that the day would come just two days after the Dow finally broke through its February records, weeks after the S&P, months after the Nasdaq.  So today the naysayers who have been lamenting all along through this bull market that everyone was being entirely too optimistic like there were blinders on that didn’t recognize the pandemic and faltering economy finally got their way.  Of course, if you say every day that the market is going to crash, eventually you’re going to be right.  So all three indexes had big retreats today, the S&P and Nasdaq their worst since June 11, the Dow its worst since June 26^th.  Was it triggered by the extraordinarily high unemployment, or a new report showing a slowing in the services sector, or the fading prospects of the new stimulus or businesses reopening?  Or was it as today’s expert suggests it’s just another “rotation out of technology stocks. I don’t think it’s anything ominous.”  Ominous or not, it spooked the market in that volume was considerably above average at nearly 12 billion. 

Wall Street closes higher with defensive bets out front

Bouncy bouncy! First,we’re moving out of tech and into value, then back into value. Today it was back into both tech and value, tech for the bargains and value because of the string of good reports on the modest growth of business activity and employment.  With the Dow up 454 points today, the blue chips are now just 1.6% below their February record and the Nasdaq almost 23% above its pre-crisis record. But the big rotation today was into defensive stocks (utilities, consumer staples, and real estate) which become the safest bet when the rest of market is mellowing. Private payrolls did increase in August but not as much as forecast which is why, as usual, the big eyes are on Friday’s government jobs report, which is expected to reflect the hiring slowdown in July and August.  For once, volume was a little above average at 9.8 billion. 

S&P, Nasdaq close at record highs in tech-fueled rally

Investors rushed back into value today shooting the Dow up 215 points as tech continued its charge boosting the S&P and Nasdaq to still new highs. There is renewed optimism over the stimulus talks and factory activity expanded for the third month. Apple remains a leader with a 4% spike a day after their stock split and Zoom surged almost 41% as they begin converting some free accounts to paid subscriptions. Of course, there remains caution about continued volatility coming. Volume was near the average at just over 8.9 billion.