Apple and Microsoft push Wall Street higher as trade worries abate

Even though it was reported by all the major news outlets on Friday that they had not one, not two, but three sources inside the White House that Trump was considering delisting Chinese firms from Wall Street, the White House has been denying it and denouncing the report as “fake news” so the losses from Friday were more than made up for today.  And with these worries on the trade war momentarily set aside, the trade-sensitive tech stocks came back big today, particularly Apple and Microsoft.  Trade talks remain on the schedule for October.  And even though Q3 will be the weakest so far this year, the indexes are still up – the S&P and Dow are up 1.2 percent for Q3 and the Nasdaq at near even with a 1/10^th% loss.  Volume remains below average at 6.2 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 9.27.19 (plus the latest from Stansberry)

Below please find the usual summation for the week courtesy of Barry Ritholz's Big Picture blog.  The positive is that with impeachment now here, we are are closer now to resolving that particular market uncertainty.  There was good news on a number of other fronts including GDP, home sales, durable goods orders, and wholesale inventories.  The big negative is that corporate profits, though still rising, rose only slightly compared to the last increase. 

9 of the Best ETFs to Own Forever

I thought I'd once again grab a page from this week's U.S. News Invested since many of us are focused on ETFs.  This article on the 9 best ETFs may prove of interest.  Hope everyone is staying dry on this soggy weekend. 

Wall Street drops; White House considers delisting Chinese companies

The Dow was up over 130 points all morning, then Trump announced a plan to delist Chinese companies from U.S. exchanges as part of the strategy of the trade war.  Then the market spent the rest of the day diving nearly 300 points before recovering in the last hour to close down 70.  The big fears of course is that this move could negatively impact the trade talks that are scheduled for October 10^th.  Adding to today’s fears was a report that consumer spending had barely budged in August, indicating slowing growth due to fears of recession.  Volume was a little below average at just under 6.7 billion. 

Wall Street dips as whistleblower report adds to investor caution

The release of the whistleblower report early in the day sent the Dow tumbling nearly 200 points by 11 a.m. but then it came almost all the way back by 3:30 p.m. after China made some conciliatory trade remarks.  But in that last half hour it dove again to close down 79.  As today’s expert cited, whether the impeachment push continues to add to volatility depends on how consumers respond.  So, for the time being, the jury is out.  Volume was below average at 6.1 billion. 

Wall Street bounces back as investors shrug off impeachment risk

One day after the big sell off attributed either to the impeachment inquiry or, depending on who you’re listening to, Trump’s harsh trade rhetoric, we have our answer.  It’s the trade rhetoric!  One day after the harsh comments, Trump issued another comment that was far gentler and accommodative and, though the impeachment issue heated up even more, the market climbed, wiping out Tuesday’s losses and then some.  There’s also the factor that impeachment noise is not making a dent yet due to all the positive economic data such as new single-family homes rebounding and an impending new trade deal with Japan.  Volume was below average at just under 6.7 billion. 

Wall Street drops; Pelosi says to start formal impeachment inquiry

The Dow was up 150 points in the morning but then took a nearly 400 point dive before coming back after 2 pm to close down 149.  There is debate about whether the big dive was because of Trump’s harsh words today regarding China or whether it was Pelosi’s announcement to begin an impeachment inquiry.  I guess we’ll find out as the days drag on and either the trade war gets better and we get closer to impeachment … or vice versa.  One thing that everyone agrees on is that consumer confidence has been impacted by the trade war and that has had a very real dampening effect on the market, particularly today.  And since people vote with their wallets, the trade war is currently a bigger issue than possible impeachment.  Volume was above average at nearly 7.7 billion. 

Wall Street ends flat as mixed economic data signals caution

The session started over a hundred points down but steadily regained ground to close just about even.  Reports from Germany pointing towards a deepening recession there combined with continuing trade cautions to render a very mixed day.  Yet any data that even hints at avoiding a recession will bring the market back up.  The good news is that everyone is sitting on the sidelines, sitting just below record highs, and waiting for the next major development as indicated by the considerably below average volume of just 5.9 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 9.20.19 (plus A Fistful of Reasons to be Optimistic)

Below you will find the usual Sunday night weekly summation, the positive being that investors have gotten used to the trade war noise so the markets have calmed down a bit.  The negative is that overall economic optimism has fallen which has correlations to future GDP.  The bonus this week is a rather detailed analysis from our friends at Heritage Capital Management about all the positive things that are currently happening in the economy and the markets such that, despite all the pessimism out there, there really are a number of solid reasons to be optimistic.  Hope everyone enjoyed this final weekend of summer. 

9 of the Most Popular Stocks on Robinhood

Robinhood is an app that lets you trade stocks for free with no minimum deposit. For your weekend reading, below is an article from last week's U.S. News Invested that discusses its 9 most popular stocks.  Enjoy your weekend. 

Wall Street drops after China cancels trip to Montana farmland

Everything was going rosy for a while in the morning with the Dow up a hundred points, then right around 1 pm the Chinese decided to cancel their trip to Montana where they were scheduled to see some of the farms the trade war was impacting.  This was more concerning to the market since, though investors have grown accustomed to the ups and downs triggered by Trump’s comments and tweets, this time it was China’s decision and the market plummeted, losing all the gains and closing down another 159 points. Again, the trade-sensitive stocks were the ones hit the hardest with the chip index in particular taking nearly a 2% dive.  Because of all the unwinding and “witching” of futures and options contracts expiring, volume was artificially elevated to 9.8 billion shares. 

Wall Street mixed as Microsoft climbs and Apple dips

The Dow was up a good 130 most of the morning, then dove over 200 to close down 52 points.  Once again, Apple led the market’s downtrend to be moderated by Microsoft’s uptrend and the general sentiment that the Fed will issue another rate cut next month.  There also remains the general optimism that though growth is proceeding at a slower pace, earnings are nevertheless continuing to expand.  This is expected to persist through the next year.  Volume was below average at 6.1 billion. 

S&P 500 ends slightly higher after Fed gives mixed signals

It was a down market all day with the Dow plunging over 200 points by 3 pm, then recovering 200+ in the final hour to close 36 points up.  The Fed did the expected by issuing another ¼ point rate cut but left investors in a muddle over future moves until Powell clarified the position later in the afternoon sparking the rally by suggesting that future policy could be “aggressive” if necessary.  Otherwise, it’s status quo which was confirmed by the slightly below average volume of 6.7 billion. 

Wall Street rises as oil fears recede, market awaits Fed

Yesterday the fears were that we would be months recovering from this past weekend’s Saudi attacks.  Today the experts have changed that forecast to weeks instead and that pushed the Dow up a modest 33 points.  There was also a calming effect from Trump’s statement that he did not want war with Iran.  Tomorrow it is widely expected that the Fed will once again cut interest rates by 1/4%.  There were also good reports from manufacturing and homebuilding.  Volume was in line with recent averages at 6.8 billion. 

Wall Street drops after Saudi attacks, energy stocks spike

This weekend’s attack on the Saudi oil facilities sent investors into a bit of a panic over a potential military conflict between the U.S. and Iran thus sending the Dow down 142 points on geopolitical concerns.  Particularly impacted by the selloff were industries that use a lot of fuel – the airlines and cruise operators.  The price of gas for consumers is also expected to spike.  Conversely, the oil and defense companies benefited from the speculation.  The consensus remains that the future of this decade-long bull market is contingent on the Fed keeping interest rates low and the Trump administration succeeding with a trade deal with China.  Volume was considerably above average with 7.6 billion shares traded. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.13.19 (plus What Statistics Can and Can’t Tell Us About Ourselves)

Once again it's Sunday night and below is the weekly summation.  Jobless claims came in below forecast and consumer credit came in above. Conversely job openings and retail sales came in below forecast.  The bonus this Sunday night should be of interest to everyone since we're all so in to number crunching.  From a recent issue of The New Yorker, here is a mini course (3700 words) on statistics -- what they are good for -- what they are not.  And what they tell us about human behavior.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.

Growth Stocks to Buy When the Economy Slows

For this second September weekend I offer an article below from one of this week's editions of U.S. News Invested -- a list of stocks that are expected to do well if the market starts to fall.  These include companies many of us probably already own  -- Amazon, D.R. Horton, Facebook, Flowserve, Alphabet, Noble Energy, Netflix, United Rentals, NRG Energy, and Valero Energy. The article contains discussion on each.  Enjoy the rest of the weekend. 

S&P edges lower as Apple weighs, trade tensions ease

Friday the 13^th turned out to be fairly lackluster, neither good nor bad with the Dow gaining a modest 37 points. Apple’s new iPhone got a mixed review from Goldman Sachs which sent the stock down nearly 2 percent and was the biggest drag on all the indexes.  Still, the Dow has had eight consecutive winning sessions, its longest streak in over a year and there was a ton of buying of 10-year T-Bills sending the yield up substantially.  How the tariff thaw and 10-year yield is being described as “holding back the market” is something that is unclear to me.  There’s been no mention as to whether the yield curve inversion has reversed itself but given the big upsurge in the 10-year, I have to assume it has and is no longer presenting recession fears.  Retail sales in August were also twice what was expected pointing to strong and continuing consumer spending, confidence, and cheerfulness.  Volume remains above average at just under 7 billion. 

Wall Street ends higher on trade, ECB stimulus hopes

The Dow was up a good 150 most of the day until the final hour when it slid to a much more modest gain of 45.  Again, everyone was riding the wave of hopefulness for the trade war and the good news from Europe that the ECB was continuing their stimulus.  In response to yesterday’s concessions from the Chinese, today Trump agreed to also delay tariffs and consumer prices rose by 2.4% in August, handily besting the Fed’s 2% inflation target.  So there was lots to celebrate until the last minute pullback, which may have been just that – a last minute pullback with investors seeing a profit-taking opportunity.  Volume again was quite brisk at 7.5 billion. 

Trade hopes buoy Wall Street as China extends olive branch

With China offering to exempt tariffs on certain U.S. goods as a show of good faith heading into next month’s negotiations in Washington D.C., the market sprang into action bolting the Dow up a big 227 points.  The Chinese olive branch also lifted tech, particularly Apple, which shot up over 3 percent, once again putting the company’s market value over the $1 trillion mark.  The Dow has now had six consecutive daily gains with investors betting that there will be a trade deal in a reasonable period of time.  Trump today has for the first time suggested in a tweet that the Fed move to negative interest rates, a move that is already getting a good deal of pushback, though it remains widely expected that the Fed will announce another ¼ point cut next week.  Volume remains above average at nearly 7.6 billion shares traded. 

Wall Street mixed as investors flee growth for value

It was another day like yesterday with the good news just slightly edging out the bad news and the Dow rising 79 points as a rally in industrials was countered by a drop in technology as investors look to cut risk by going for value stocks over growth. China is beginning to feel the effects of the trade war with its producer prices dropping at the sharpest pace in three years. This bad news from China hit our trade sensitive tech sector.  And today at long last Germany’s finance minister finally called out U.S. and European investors on their very incorrect notions on rate cuts.  “If they’re cutting rates, it means their economies aren’t very good. It’s a misguided logic [to want the central banks to cut rates].”  At just over 8 billion, volume was considerably above average. 

Wall Street ends flat amid rate hopes, tech declines

There were as many minuses as pluses today so the Dow moved up only a modest 38 points but overall it was just business as usual.  There was a pullback after last week’s big rally but hopes for another rate cut and some placating rhetoric of no threat of recession kept things in check.  But as always, the market is hanging on trade war news and as today’s expert said, “for the market to move significantly higher from here, we’d really need to see something happen on trade.”  Volume was above average at 7.4 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 9.06.19 (plus 10 of the Best New ETFs to Buy)

Below is the usual Sunday night weekly summary, the chief positive being the scheduling of the resumption of trade talks which provided the key boost to the markets this past week, the chief negative being the continuing problems with bonds and the fears that this might be a harbinger to recession.  The bonus this weekend is an article from Thursday's U.S. News Invested about the best new ETFs, and since that's what most of us invest in, I thought the info might be useful.  Hope everyone had a great weekend. 

Fiasco: the inside story of the Brexit talks

The following article from Britain's Prospect magazine as reprinted today on Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture blog provides valuable insight to one of the most serious issues moving the markets these days.  As we're currently just weeks away from the Brexit, this is a very appropriate time to be getting the bird's eye view.  It's a long but worthwhile read.  Continue enjoying your weekend. 

Wall St. barely gains after mixed U.S. jobs data

The bad news was a mixed jobs report that had 28,000 fewer new jobs than expected. The good news is that the tepid jobs report might provide further support for another Fed rate cut this month.  The better news is that, though job growth was slowing a bit, this was countered by strong wage gains which would lend support to continuing consumer spending and a moderately expanding economy.  The best news is that Chairman Powell opined that the labor market was strong and that the U.S. and world economy are not likely to fall into recession.  The bottom line was the Dow gained a modest 69 points on modestly lower than average volume of just under 6.3 billion. 

What trade fears? Wall Street is back in rally mode

Once again, all it took was an announcement of an actual date for trade talks (early October) to make the market zoom again, the Dow bolting up big time 372 points.  There was also flurry of positive economic reports that contributed to the buying spree.  Private payrolls grew at their fastest pace since April and the services sector grew in August, rebounding from its weakest point in three years while new orders were at their highest since February.  Today the consensus became that, though manufacturing activity is shrinking, services is making up the slack and pointing the economy away from recession.  Because of the renewed hopes on China, tech bounced back 2 percent and volume was considerably above average at 7.5 billion.  But after today’s private payrolls report, all eyes will be keenly set on Friday’s critical nonfarm payrolls report.  Stay tuned.

Wall Street rises on strong Chinese data, Hong Kong and Brexit news

The British voting down Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan and data from China showing its fastest expansion in three months helped boost the markets with the Dow bolting 237 points.  Also helping the boost was the decision from Hong Kong to withdraw the extradition bill that had triggered riots and worried investors. But the possible derailment of a hard Brexit was indeed the most welcome news. There was also the more minor news that the Fed’s new Beige Book showed the U.S. economy growing at a modest pace.  Volume remains below average at just under 6.2 billion. 

Wall Street pushed down by weak data, trade worries

The market took another big nosedive today with a new report showing factory activity shrinking for the first time in three years further compounding uncertainty and adding to worries about global growth and impending recession.  The triple-digit loss was undoubtedly also a reaction to the latest round of tariffs going into effect over the holiday weekend.  As today’s expert said it’s not so much the trade war that’s got everyone on edge as the fact that “they can’t even agree on a date to meet.”  The Dow tumbled 285 and took the trade sensitive stocks with it, especially Boeing, the China-based U.S. casinos, and the entire Philadelphia chip index.  Volume was below the 4-week average at 6.7 billion. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 8.30.19 (plus Assessing the Economy's Winners and Losers)

As we close out yet another holiday weekend -- and unofficially another summer -- I again submit the summation of the week's events, both the positives and the negatives again revolving around the trade war.  But as we end this summer, I thought it was appropriate that Barry Ritholtz chose Labor Day to comment on the strengths and weaknesses of our economy and how it all impacts the American worker.  From the Wall Street Journal and buttressed from data from the Fed, a short but very informative read.  Have a great week. 

10 Best Cheap ETFs for the Rest of 2019

Yesterday I shared an article about the best bargain stocks to invest in for the remainder of 2019.  Tonight, since most of us are really more ETF-oriented, I submit an article on the best of the bargain ETFs.  Hope everyone has a great Labor Day.