Wall Street ends sharply higher after Powell comments

It must have been right at 1 pm that Powell made his speech because that’s when all three indexes shot way up after spending the whole day in the red. And I mean way up, the Dow closing up some 2.2%, the Nasdaq 4.4, the S&P a whopping 3.1 percent on the Fed chair’s optimistic comments that rate hikes may well soon be slowing, likely in December.  It’s the news investors have been waiting for and shot the odds for a ½ point December increase to 75 percent. November has ended with a bang, all three indexes ending with monthly increases, the Nasdaq over 4%, the S&P and Dow both over 5. 

S&P 500 ends down as Apple dips and traders eye Powell speech

It was quite the seesaw day again with the Dow bouncing back and forth between deep red (about 200 down) and just barely above breakeven four times before closing again just barely above break-even. The S&P followed a similar deep in the red most of the day until just before close, the Nasdaq not so lucky staying well in the red all day.  The problems in China impacted Apple which dropped more than 2% for the fourth straight session and impacted all of tech along its path. 

Wall Street ends down sharply, hit by Apple and China worries

After a pretty optimistic week last week the markets took a big dive today as a reaction to all the weekend protests in China as investors try to second-guess what that nation’s future COVID policy will be.  And with all the unrest at Apple’s China factory, that giant took a big hit which was another major factor driving down the indexes.  As today’s expert put it, “We think COVID itself and China policy is one of the key variables for 2023.”  But volume was very thin again at just 9.3 billion as investors await key reports this week on consumer confidence (Tuesday), Q3 GDP (Wednesday) and payrolls (Friday.)  Cyber Monday is expected to make another record today with an estimate at $11.6 billion. 

New Inflation Era

To close out this long holiday weekend and given how successful it is now reported that Black Friday turned out to be, breaking all records for Black Friday and coming in even a tad higher than the most optimistic projections, here's is Consuelo Mack's latest take on inflation.  Whether this big Black Friday weekend helps or hurts inflation is yet to be seen.  And, of course, there's also Cyber Monday coming up tomorrow, also one of the biggest shopping days of the year.  Hope everyone had a great holiday.  

16 Nuggets of Financial Advice From Warren Buffett

To kick off this holiday season, here are sixteen pearls of wisdom from the Oracle of Omaha.  Hope everyone is getting a lot of shopping done this weekend.  Me, I'm sitting home enjoying a free weekend of HBO and Showtime. The big winner so far is the very charming Bryan Cranston financial comedy, "Jerry and Marge Go Large."  True story.  

Nasdaq ends down as investors eye Black Friday sales, China infections

Black Friday doesn’t count.  Such was the sentiment as summarized by today’s expert, “It’s such a low volume trading day as most people are at home that I never count Friday after Thanksgiving.”  As it was, there was a shot straight up all day on the Dow and an equally dramatic shot straight down on the Nasdaq, with the S&P modestly in the black for most of the day until diving in the final minutes to break-even. At the time of market close it was still too early to gauge the impact of Black Friday sales but tonight’s evening news reported that Black Friday came very close to the optimistic estimates. 

9 Dividend Stocks to Buy and Hold Forever

For Thanksgiving, 9 stocks to be thankful for because you can hold them forever.  Happy Thanksgiving everyone.  

Wall Street rises as Fed signals slowdown in rate hikes

The Dow was up some 220 points right out the gate this morning, then came crashing down over 250 points just before noon before beginning another ascent around 1 pm to close up 95.  As has frequently been pointed out, the market is being driven by the Fed these days and today’s Fed minutes showed a “substantial majority” of them would “likely” soon support the slowing of rate hikes. There was abundant praise for the “renewed investor enthusiasm” and “that beautiful light at the end of a very dark tunnel and so much money on the sidelines that is waiting to get back into the action.” But there’s been no explanation as to what caused the market to tank in the middle of the day. As has been the case for the holiday week, volume was thin at 9.2 billion. 

S&P closes at more than two-month high on retail, energy lift

It was a shot straight up for all three indexes all day long as Best Buy revised its holiday forecast for a smaller drop than previously stated, lifting optimism for the shopping season across the whole retail sector. Dollar General dropped, though, indicating that the discount stores with their smaller margins are likely more susceptible to rising prices than other retailers and that the lower income consumer is also more sensitive to increases.  There is still a tug of war trying to figure out the Fed as more Fed presidents who had earlier turned dovish suddenly switched gears Tuesday and reiterated the need for more and higher rate hikes. For the holiday week, volume remains light and considerably below average at just 9.4 billion. 

Wall Street slips as concerns rise of stricter China COVID curbs

All the indexes down all day long except the Dow that was initially down about 100 about noon but recovered to breakeven around 2 pm and then slide down 45 to close.  But the tech heavy S&P and Nasdaq were down all day, especially the Nasdaq. The trigger was China imposing more restrictions on what may be the most severe outbreak of COVID yet, threatening all international businesses, particularly tech. The seesaw on the Dow, and to a certain extent on the S&P is attributed to Fed presidents once again taking a dovish approach and predicting softer rate hikes beginning in December. But due to the short holiday week, volume is low at only 9.4 billion and thus exaggerating volatility. 

10 Stocks Warren Buffett Just Bought and Sold

To close out this very frigid weekend, the latest from Warren Buffett.  Enjoy the week.  It'll be warmer.  

9 High-Yield Dividend Stocks to Buy

From this week's U.S. News Invested and for those who are invested for stable income rather than growth, here are their 9 latest recommendations for high paying dividends.  Stay warm this very frigid weekend.  

S&P 500 ends higher, led by defensive shares

It was yet another rocky day with the Dow up and down between a +200 and break-even all day to finally rally after 2 pm to close up almost 200.  The S&P followed a similar pattern while tech spent almost all day in the red as investors fled to the safety of defensive shares. As was the case yesterday, the trigger was again Fed officials coming out very hawkish and predicting an almost certain ¾ point rate hike again in December after days of market optimism about a ½ point hike. The good news, as today’s expert put it, “We have had some very hawkish talk but it hasn’t hit the market to the downside as it has in the past.”  Volume was again well below the 4-week average at 9.7 billion shares traded. 

Wall Street drops as hawkish Fed official comments weigh

All the indexes had a bumpy ride again today with the Dow down some 300 points in the morning before reaching break-even around 1 pm, then diving again just to begin another rise in the final half hour to close around break-even. Yesterday there was excitement when a couple of usually hawkish Fed governors expressed their views that rate hikes would soon cool down.  Today, it was that same gadfly out of St. Louis Fed prez James Bullard, who has done this so many times before, and who again threw cold water on all those hopes in stating that the hikes so far “had only limited effects on inflation” and that likely they would continue, probably for quite a while.  

Wall Street ends down after Target outlook, Micron supply cut

It was quite a volatile day again as both the Nasdaq and S&P spent the day decidedly in the red and the Dow seesawed back and forth at least a half dozen times between black and red in a 200-point range before settling at a modest 39 point loss.  Target was the trigger with its grim forecast for holiday sales spurring new doubts about consumer spending, doubts that spread to other major retailers like Macy’s, Best Buy and Foot Locker.  Micron also had bad news about a reduction in chip supply and a reduction in capital spending, something that has always seemed strange to me in the midst of a critical chip shortage that the chip companies would be cutting production. 

Wall Street gains on inflation data, but rocky on geopolitics

Riding high on the PPI report that came in a full 0.3% better than the estimate, a full 4% lower, the indexes were way up in the morning, the Dow some 450 points until about 1 pm when an unconfirmed report of a missile, allegedly launched from Russia, landed in a Polish border city with Ukraine killing two people.  That triggered an immediate crash that lasted about an hour before investors starting buying into the inflation report again, taken along with others, that inflation has rounded the corner and bringing the indexes back up, especially tech, with the Dow closing up 56 points. At the end of the day, the markets chose to shake off the potential for the war expanding and instead focus on the good inflation report with volume above average at 13.1 billion. 

Wall Street ends lower as investors gauge Fed's policy path

In a seesaw session, the indexes were up for most of the afternoon, the Dow up over 200 points before 2 pm before everything went south losing 400 points by close, most of that in the last 20 minutes. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was a bit different with losses all day until 2 pm when it briefly broke even then started another decline, again most of it in the last half hour.  The up and down was attributed to several Fed officials sharing their views that rates may very well slow in December. But then bets were hedged, as they always are when awaiting other news, to see how the PPI data goes on Tuesday and, more importantly, to assess more Fed officials as they comment on rate hikes later this week and, of course, more data.  With all this hedging, volume was below average at 11.5 billion. 

4 Ways 2022 Midterms May Impact Stocks

This article may have been written before most election results were known and before it was known that there would be no red wave. However, much of the advice remains valid.  One huge bit of good news is the historical trend cited in this article that the S&P, though having poor returns in the year prior to a midterm, generally has a 16.3% return in the year following, most of that in the first 90 days after the election.  If that trend proves true this year, then right now is an ideal time to buy the S&P.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  

Investing Wisdom

This week's topic on WealthTrack is the wisdom of investors adapting to change as the markets certainly have been undergoing an evolutionary scale of change.  The guest is Charles Ellis of Greenwich Associates who has spent his career advising clients on adapting to changes in the market.  Included in this episode is a discussion of his latest book, "Figuring It Out: Sixty Years of Answering Investors' Most Important Questions."  Enjoy and enjoy the weekend.  

Nasdaq, S&P 500 end sharply higher, fueled by inflation optimism

Dow down over 300 points in the morning before beginning an ascent for the rest of the day to close just above break-even. This was due primarily to a decline in the healthcare sector, something that typically happens on growth rally days. That is the trend, when growth rises, value falls and vice-versa.  But the growth indexes spent the day still riding high from yesterday’s very positive CPI report and once again the market displayed exuberant confidence in the Fed trimming back rate hikes as early as next month, so much so that in two short days the oddsmakers put a ½ point December hike at 81% vs Wednesday’s 52.  This was the biggest weekly gain for the S&P since June and for the Nasdaq since March.  Volume was heavy at 13.5 billion. 

Wall Street ends sharply higher on sign of cooling inflation

Dow up some 650 points right out the gate and then just keep going up another 550 points by close in the market’s biggest one-day gain in 2-1/2 years. So for one day at least, election news got knocked off the front page in favor of the first really hopeful inflation report to come along since it all first peaked last March. It was plenty enough to trigger a huge jump in the forecast for a ½ vs ¾ pt December rate hike to 85% vs yesterday’s 52.  That’s what caused the real excitement though some experts feel that is entirely premature. 

Wall Street ends lower after midterm election, CPI in focus

A straight shot down all day as, after two days of rallies promoted by the optimism of a red wave, the markets expressed their disappointment with the election results.  Though the much wanted gridlock and end to Biden policies may still happen, it no longer is as sure-fire as it seemed yesterday.  The red wave did not happen and, even if the Republicans do still prevail, it will be by very thin margins, not the agenda-setting plurality they were hoping for.  Further hurting the market was a big drop in Disney, the biggest in 22 years, and Tesla dropping to a 2-year low after Musk sold nearly $4B of his stock. All eyes now are on the CPI report due Thursday for another look at the inflation picture.  As final election results remain in limbo, volume was light at 11.6 billion. 

Wall Street ends higher as investors eye U.S. midterms

Tue 11-8-22

Just like yesterday, in anticipation of Republican victories in today’s election, it was a straight shot up for all the indexes with the Dow again gaining very handsomely over 500 points.  Then shortly after 1 pm, everything came crashing down to very close to break-even by 2:30 before everything started rallying again to close up 333 points.  There was no explanation given for this crash.  But for the second day investors are betting heavily on Republican control of Congress which translates for them to gridlock for two years, two years of no more tax hikes and no more tech regulations. But until results are actually in, volume remains light at 11.7 billion.  Included below is a very informative graph showing in an eye-shot the performance of every S&P sector for 2022 so far. 

U.S. stocks end higher, Meta jumps as investors eye midterms

OMG, speak of cynicism, today was the ultimate!  Ordinarily political gridlock would be considered anathema to the market – and to the country at large.  But today – not to Wall Street!  With high expectations that the Republicans will win at least one house in Congress on Tuesday, stocks rallied big time in the high hopes that if the Republicans do prevail, there will be gridlock for the remainder of Biden’s term.  This is to say, as stated by today’s expert, “That would probably take tax hikes off the table, and any sort of big spending potentially perceived as inflationary off the table.”  

Spooky Investing Horror Stories

This week's AAII newsletter should have been published last weekend due to its theme but the topic is still quite valuable -- all the horrific mistakes investors commonly make that define the difference between profits and losses.  Enjoy, and hope everyone enjoyed their weekend.  

Wall St rallies to close out soft week after jobs report

Note: This was not published on Fri 11-4-22 since my Internet connection was out. 

All the indexes followed the same pattern today with the Dow zooming up over 500 around 11 a.m., then immediately crashing down to break-even by 2 pm, then zooming up again to close up 401.  At the base of the volatility was mixed messaging with an uptick in unemployment taken as giving the Fed room to downsize, but that counterbalanced by wages rising slightly as did job growth. The good news, as the graph shows, is that the miss in the estimate was very small.  

Wall St down for fourth straight day on Fed rate hike worry

Fed jitters continue with the Dow down almost 400 points at open, but then recovering to break-even by noon and for the rest of the afternoon until just before close when it plummeted again to close down 146.  But at least it was a wash for most of the day until another labor report came in validating the job market continues plenty strong enough to encourage more rate hikes. This was balanced by another report showing a slowing in services, but not enough to take away jitters. 

Wall Street drops as Powell signals Fed not close to done

Just below the radar until 2 pm, then up sharply about 300 points very briefly before then plummeting nearly 800 points in the last 90 minutes to close down 505 points.  And it just serves as a reminder of why we love the stock market so much in all of its unpredictability for the Fed today did pretty much exactly as expected, which should have triggered a rally but instead had the opposite effect. Why?  Though investors expected the ¾ pt rate hike and some hint that there would soon be some pullback, the message about the pullback was not quite as strong as hoped for.  

Wall St slips as jobs data dents hopes for Fed rate deceleration

Just like yesterday, the Dow sank as low as 250 points by 11 a.m. before rebounding for the rest of the session to close down just 79.  Today’s trigger was an all-too healthy hiring report which showed the labor market remaining strong and thus watering down hopes that the winnowing of rate hikes could begin as early as December. Wednesday’s Fed statement will shed more light. The statement is published at 2 p.m. so watch for movement in buying or selling at that time. One bright spot that got trounced by the hiring report was the manufacturing report which had its slowest growth in 2-1/2 years. Awaiting the Fed’s release on Wednesday, volume was below average at 11.1 billion. 

Happy Halloween everyone!

Mon 10-31-22

Happy Halloween everyone!  Since I've just gotten in after a very long day (and have another very long day tomorrow), I'm making this one of my rare nights since I started this blog a dozen years ago that I will be skipping the post tonight.  

The highlights:  The Dow down 128, the S&P -29, the Nasdaq -114.  

A very brief summary: A modest selloff today as a hedge against the near certainly of a 3/4 pt rate hike on Wednesday, but still holding out hope that there will be signals that the Fed will start backing off as early as December.