Dow notches record high close after upbeat economic data

Dow notches record high close after upbeat economic data

By Noel Randewich

Fri August 30, 2024 5:04 PM

Today’s PCE data showed solid consumer spending further bolstering the case of a strong resilient economy and another sign of a soft landing. The report boosted the Dow and Nasdaq into triple-digits again, with the Dow at yet another record high. As today’s expert put it, “The market is really getting exactly what it wanted.” The August jobs report is coming next Friday and the overwhelming consensus now is for a ¼ point cut next month instead of a ½ point. Though today’s volume was characterized as light going into Labor Day weekend, the fact is that it came in almost exactly at the 11.4 billion average at 11.2 billion. 

DJ: 41,335.05  +243.63      NAS: 17,516.43  -39.60       S&P: 5,591.96  -0.22        8/29

DJ: 41,563.08  +228.03      NAS: 17,713.62  +197.20    S&P: 5,648.40  +56.44     8/30

Fri 8-30-24 5:04 pm Dow notches record high close after upbeat economic data | Reuters  

Dow closes at record high, Nvidia falls after forecast

Dow closes at record high, Nvidia falls after forecast

By Johann M Cherian and Noel Randewich

Thu August 29, 2024 6:56 PM

Despite all the gloom and doom prognostication that has been plaguing the tech sector in recent days, Nvidia certainly cannot be blamed for the crash that happened this afternoon, especially in view of the fact that all three indexes were going great guns until 2 pm despite the fact that Nvidia turned in its “disappointing” report last night. All the indexes were on an upward lunge from the outset, the Dow up a whopping 500 points by 2:30 pm and the tech heavy S&P and Nasdaq were also way up. Then, at 2 pm, the whole market came very suddenly crashing down, with tech closing just mildly in the red.

There’s no mention about what happened at 2 pm but since it was mentioned yesterday that Nvidia’s report came in “after hours,” clearly this morning’s rally was just ignoring the “disappointment” as Nvidia, despite beating forecasts, did not beat it by overwhelming margins as has happened in recent quarters. And there were other positive reasons to continue the rally including tomorrow’s PCE, today’s strong consumer spending that is growing GDP and keeping us out of recession, and lower than expected jobless claims. Despite beating estimates, Nvidia fell 6%, lowering its 2024 gain to a mere 137%. Volume continues light but at 10.5 billion is getting closer to the 4-week average of 11.6 billion. 

DJ: 41,091.42  -159.08       NAS: 17,556.03  -198.79      S&P: 5,592.18  -33.62          8/28

DJ: 41,335.05  +243.63      NAS: 17,516.43  -39.60        S&P: 5,591.96  -0.22            8/29

Thu 8-29-24 6:56 pm Dow closes at record high, Nvidia falls after forecast | Reuters

Wall Street ends down; investors brace for Nvidia report

Wall Street ends down; investors brace for Nvidia report

By Noel Randewich and Johann M Cherian

Wed August 28, 2024 4:16 PM

The skepticism regarding Nvidia’s quarterly report due tomorrow was back in full force today with all the indexes dipping sharply until about 2 pm, the Dow down some 400 points, before rebounding to recover more than half the loss.  Nvidia has been going great guns, the leader of tech and AI this year, and the consensus seems to be that this huge run can’t last forever and may very well end tomorrow if the report is anything less than stellar. All the chip companies declined, the chip index itself down 1.5% with 8 of the 11 S&P sectors also down.  Coming at 9.9 billion shares traded, volume was still way below the 4-week average of 11.7 billion. 

DJ: 41,250.50  +10.00       NAS: 17,754.82  +29.05      S&P: 5,625.80  +8.96          8/27

DJ: 41,091.42  -159.08      NAS: 17,556.03  -198.79     S&P: 5,592.18  -33.62         8/28

Wed 8-28-24 4:16 pm Wall Street ends down; investors brace for Nvidia report | Reuters

Wall Street ends up as investors focus on Nvidia results

Wall Street ends up as investors focus on Nvidia results

By Noel Randewich

Tue August 27, 2024 5:25 PM

Concerns about Nvidia continue to abound with a very high bar set to avoid a crash through the AI sector. The Dow was hit heaviest, down about 140 points until about 12:30 p.m., then recovering throughout the afternoon to close about even. The S&P and Nasdaq stayed mostly barely above water closing with modest gains. Despite the skepticism over Nvidia, the AI star player regained most of its losses from yesterday with a gain of 1.5% awaiting its report tomorrow, making it the day’s most heavily traded company. Today’s consumer confidence report came in at a 6-month high and the hotly awaited PCE data is coming Friday. Volume was way below the 4-week average of 11.9 billion, coming in at 8.6 billion. 

DJ: 41,240.52  +65.42        NAS: 17,725.77  -152.03      S&P: 5,616.84  -17.77          8/26

DJ: 41,250.50  +10.00        NAS: 17,754.82  +29.05       S&P: 5,625.80  +8.96           8/27

Tue 8-27-24 5:25 pm Wall Street ends up as investors focus on Nvidia results | Reuters

S&P 500 ends lower, weighed down by Nvidia dip

S&P 500 ends lower, weighed down by Nvidia dip

By Johann M Cherian and Noel Randewich

Mon August 26, 2024 4:13 PM

Tech retreated today being cautious ahead of Wednesday’s Nvidia quarterly forecast for which there is abundant skepticism that it will be to the market’s satisfaction. In fact, anything short of a stellar report is expected to crash the AI rally so today saw a big selloff in tech and Nvidia dropping 2.25%. The Dow benefited with a 65-point bump but only after a wild rollercoaster ride that began with a 250 point gain. Coming Friday is PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Today’s odds now stand at 70/30 for a ¼ pt vs ½ pt rate cut in September. Volume remains way below the 4-week average of 11.9 billion coming in at 9.5 billion. 

DJ: 41,175.08  +462.30      NAS: 17,877.79  +258.44      S&P: 5,634.61  +63.97         8/23

DJ: 41,240.52  +65.42        NAS: 17,725.77  -152.03       S&P: 5,616.84  -17.77          8/26

Mon 8-26-24 4:13 pm S&P 500 ends lower, weighed down by Nvidia dip | Reuters

Wall Street ends sharply higher as Powell cements September rate cut hopes

Wall Street ends sharply higher as Powell cements September rate cut hopes

By Stephen Culp

Fri August 23, 2024  6:35 PM

At the conclusion of Jackson Hole, the magic words were finally spoken today that investors had so long and so anxiously awaited, “The time has come to lower the Fed funds target rate and the upside risks of inflation have diminished.” With this virtual guarantee that a September rate cut is indeed finally coming (and widely expected more cuts before year-end), all three indexes went through the roof with big 3-digit gains all around. All three indexes posted weekly gains following last week’s biggest gains for the year. Coming next week is GDP and PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. Volume, though still below the 11.88 billion-average, was closer at 10.57 billion. 

DJ: 40,712.78  -177.71      NAS: 17,619.35  -299.63       S&P: 5,570.64  -50.21         8/22

DJ: 41,175.08  +462.30     NAS: 17,877.79  +258.44      S&P: 5,634.61  +63.97        8/23

Fri 8-23-24 6:35 pm Wall Street ends sharply higher as Powell cements September rate cut hopes | Reuters

Wall St ends lower as tech shares weigh; Jackson Hole in focus

Wall St ends lower as tech shares weigh; Jackson Hole in focus

By Stephen Culp

Thu August 22, 2024 5:36 PM

It was pretty much a straight path down on all the indexes as tech shares sank and, as today’s expert put it, “There doesn’t appear to be any kind of a clear catalyst as to what’s driving this sell off.”  Indeed, there was nothing but more good news today as jobless claims increased bolstering further a softening labor market which, in turn, eased recession fears and maintained confidence in a September rate cut, which Powell is widely expected to announce on Friday. There remains debate between a ¼ point and ½ point but the odds are heavily weighted toward a ¼ as Powell is expected to proceed with caution.  With these developments, the sell off is somewhat of a mystery but the low volume of 9.8 billion, still way below the 4-week average of 11.9 ahead of Jackson Hole is no mystery at all. 

DJ: 40,890.49  +55.52      NAS: 17,918.99  +102.05      S&P: 5,620.85  +23.73         8/21

DJ: 40,712.78  -177.71     NAS: 17,619.35  -299.63       S&P: 5,570.64  -50.21          8/22

Thu 8-22-24 5:36 pm Wall St ends lower as tech shares weigh; Jackson Hole in focus | Reuters

Wall St ends higher as Fed minutes, jobs data firm rate-cut hopes

Wall St ends higher as Fed minutes, jobs data firm rate-cut hopes

By Stephen Culp

Wed August 21, 2024 4:26 PM

It was another day of serious volatility with all the indexes swinging back and forth several times between red and black but at least the tech indexes, though still wild, were at least mostly in the black. The Dow didn’t do as well, weighed down by the financial sector, swung between a 100-point loss and a 140-point gain. Still, all closed with gains. Today’s main trigger was the Labor Dept downward revision of last month’s payroll, down a very big 800K, which stoked optimism of a softening labor market and consequent rate cuts.

But the overall sentiment remains “wait-and-see,” reflected in the still way below average volume 9.8 billion vs a 12.1 billion average. Wait and see what happens at Jackson Hole, whether there’s going to be a September rate cut, and waiting for this seasonal volatility to settle – all very good reasons for both bulls and bears to stay on the sidelines for now. 

DJ: 40,834.97  -61.56       NAS: 17,816.94  -59.83       S&P: 5,597.12  -11.13         8/20

DJ: 40,890.49  +55.52      NAS: 17,918.99  +102.05     S&P: 5,620.85  +23.73        8/21

Wed 8-21-24 4:26 pm Wall St ends higher as Fed minutes, jobs data firm rate-cut hopes | Reuters

Wall St ends lower ahead of Jackson Hole, snapping multi-session rally

Wall St ends lower ahead of Jackson Hole, snapping multi-session rally

By Stephen Culp

Tue August 20, 2024 6:41 PM

End of summer is typically a time of market volatility and political conventions typically add to this, all reflected in the wildly seesaw action today, the Dow swinging back and forth a number of times mostly in the red but very briefly barely in the black. After an eight-day winning streak, the longest since late last year, it was time for some caution especially ahead of Jackson Hole which begins Thursday. Also another employment report is due out tomorrow.

Powell will speak Friday at the conclusion of Jackson Hole and his words will be sharply parsed for clues once again about coming cuts with bets swinging back and forth between a September cut at ½% or ¼%.  Today’s odds at 30% for ½ and 70 for ¼.  For the past six years, stocks have risen impressively after Jackson Hole with the exception of 2022 when they fell sharply. Volume came in at 9.9 billion, again well below the 4-week average of 12.2, but this is typical of the combo of both late summer and Fed fence sitting. 

DJ: 40,896.53  +236.77      NAS: 17,876.77  +245.05      S&P: 5,608.25  +54.00       8/19

DJ: 40,834.97  -61.56         NAS: 17,816.94  -59.83         S&P: 5,597.12  -11.13        8/20

Tue 6-20-24 6:41 pm Wall St ends lower ahead of Jackson Hole, snapping multi-session rally | Reuters  

Wall St ends higher, extending rally ahead of Jackson Hole

Wall St ends higher, extending rally ahead of Jackson Hole

By Stephen Culp

Mon August 19, 2024 5:39 PM

Last week’s rally, which recouped all the losses from the big sell off earlier this month, continued in earnest into its eighth day with again handsome 3-digit gains triggered by continued optimism over a September rate cut and fears of recession more or less now quashed.  The hopes are that a September rate cut will only be the beginning, that “the spigots will continue to be open,” a forecast for three cuts before year-end now by some economists. All eyes this week are very much on Jackson Hole and Powell’s remarks this Friday. The Democratic Convention in Chicago may be throwing some more volatility into the mix. Volume remains well below the 12.24 billion average coming in today at 10.3 billion. 

DJ: 40,659.76  +96.70       NAS: 17,631.72  +37.22      S&P: 5,554.25  +11.03        8/16

DJ: 40,896.53  +236.77     NAS: 17,876.77  +245.05    S&P: 5,608.25  +54.00        8/19

Mon 8-19-24 5:39 pm Wall St ends higher, extending rally ahead of Jackson Hole | Reuters

Wall St wraps up best week of the year as recession fears fade

Wall St wraps up best week of the year as recession fears fade

By Stephen Culp

Fri August 16, 2024 6:39 PM

Four consecutive days of gains have now completely turned the tables. After suffering the worst weekly losses of the year two weeks ago, we have now got the greatest weekly gains in 10 months to end this week, all on dramatically falling fears of recession and equally increasing optimism for a September rate cut. This week we’ve not only gotten very encouraging data on CPI, retail sales and unemployment, but today we got a 1-1/2 year low on new housing starts to cool down the hot housing market as well as U of M Consumer Sentiment data coming in with stronger than expected improvement.

Adding to that was the Chicago Fed prez warning against keeping rates high much longer. But, as everyone has agreed that rate cut optimism and pessimism has been the market’s major driver this year, the odds have changed wildly in the last two weeks, from 80/20 for a ½ vs ¼ point hike three weeks ago to 25/75 a week ago Monday (pessimism that the Fed would go for the much wanted ½ point cut), to 50/50 a couple days ago, to back to 25/75 today (optimism that a ¼ point cut may indeed be sufficient for now).  So, yes, all eyes are laser focused on Jackson Hole next week.  Volume was 10.1 billion, still well below the 4-week average of 12.3 billion. 

DJ: 40,563.06  +554.67      NAS: 17,594.50  +401.90     S&P: 5,543.22  +88.01        8/15

DJ: 40,659.76  +96.70        NAS: 17,631.72  +37.22       S&P: 5,554.25  +11.03        8/16

Fri 8-16-24 6:39 pm Wall St wraps up best week of the year as recession fears fade | Reuters

Indexes end higher as retail sales soothe slowdown fears

Indexes end higher as retail sales soothe slowdown fears

By Abigail Summerville

Thu August 15, 2024 5:10 PM

With the much anticipated retail sales report coming in way above expectations and unemployment filings coming in below, the market found reassurance in the resilience of consumer spending and the fears of a slowdown were themselves slowed down. Target and Costco were typical of the surge zooming up between 2 and 4%. The Dow and Nasdaq enjoyed major 3-digit boosts with the S&P up a very impressive 88 points.  The next big thing is Powell at Jackson Hole next week.  Per the CBOE, volume came in at 11.1 billion, higher than in recent sessions but still below the 4-week average. 

DJ: 48,008.39  +242.75      NAS: 17,192.60  +4.99       S&P: 5,455.21  +20.78         8/14

DJ: 40,563.06  +554.67      NAS: 17,594.50  +401.90   S&P: 5,543.22  +88.01         8/15

Thu 8-15-24 5:10 pm Indexes end higher as retail sales soothe slowdown fears | Reuters

S&P 500 ends up, win streak at 5; Nasdaq ekes out gain even as Alphabet weighs

S&P 500 ends up, win streak at 5; Nasdaq ekes out gain even as Alphabet weighs

By David French

Wed August 14, 2024 4:46 PM

It was another seesaw day with the Dow mostly up, again a handsome 3-digit gain, but the S&P and Nasdaq swinging back and forth between black and red and closing almost even. Today’s performance was described as “listless” and no explanation was given for the big Dow gain. The good news is the CPI report today showed very promising data with inflation below 3% for the first time in nearly four years. The odds of a September rate cut are now just about 50/50 between a ¼ point and ½ point. The great panic of last week is behind us. The VIX has in ten days dropped back to its normal level of 17.6, the quickest drop ever from last Monday’s 4-alarm rating of 35.  The retail sales report comes in tomorrow.  Per the CBOE, volume was 10.3 billion, still well below average. 

DJ: 39,765.64  +408.63      NAS: 17,187.61  +407.00     S&P: 5,434.43  +90.04        8/13

DJ: 48,008.39  +242.75      NAS: 17,192.60  +4.99         S&P: 5,455.21  +20.78        8/14

 Wed 8-14-24 4:46 pm S&P 500 ends up, win streak at 5; Nasdaq ekes out gain even as Alphabet weighs | Reuters

Wall Street ends higher as softer producer prices data boosts rate-cut bets

Wall Street ends higher as softer producer prices data boosts rate-cut bets

By Abigail Summerville

Tue August 13, 2024 4:31 PM

PPI came in today softer than expected which boosted rate cut hopes again and the odds of a ½ point September cut are now 55%, up from below 50 yesterday. Wednesday is CPI and Thursday retail sales and those are the reports investors are really looking for. But as today’s expert put it, “The core PPI numbers further the narrative that the Fed has done an excellent job of keeping inflation relatively under control and that the more likely move is going to be a rate cut sooner rather than later.”  All three indexes had impressive gains straight shots up, advancing handsomely into the middle 3-digit range with volume, per the CBOE, at 10.7 billion, still well below the 4-week average awaiting the other reports. 

 

DJ: 39,357.01  -140.53       NAS: 16,780.61  +35.31       S&P: 5,344.39  +0.23         8/12

DJ: 39,765.64  +408.63      NAS: 17,187.61  +407.00      S&P: 5,434.43  +90.04       8/13

 Tue 8-13-24 4:31 pm Wall Street ends higher as softer producer prices data boosts rate-cut bets | Reuters

Wall St mixed ahead of economic data; CPI in focus

Wall St mixed ahead of economic data; CPI in focus

By Abigail Summerville

Mon August 12, 2024 6:47 PM

It was another day of severe uncertainty as the indexes swung wildly back and forth, the Dow almost entirely in the red all day, the S&P and Nasdaq mostly in the black all day. The Dow swung wildly between a low of a -250 to a high just barely above break-even while the Nasdaq did the opposite from a high of a +150 to a low of -50.  There are important reports coming this week with expectations of either marginal improvement or status quo but the uncertainty has everyone fence-sitting, which is pretty typical before major reports, in this week’s case it’s CPI and retail sales, both big factors in assessing inflation and rate cuts. The bets are still for either a ½ point cut in September or two ¼ point cuts between September and December. Per the CBOE, volume came in at 10.2 billion, significantly below average which is typical while fence sitting. 

DJ: 39,497.54  +51.05       NAS: 16,745.30  +85.28       S&P: 5,344.16  +24.85        8/9

DJ: 39,357.01  -140.53      NAS: 16,780.61  +35.31       S&P: 5,344.39  +0.23          8/12

 Mon 8-12-24 6:47 pm Wall St mixed ahead of economic data; CPI in focus | Reuters

S&P 500 ends up, little changed for week after Monday's steep selloff

S&P 500 ends up, little changed for week after Monday's steep selloff

By Caroline Valetkevitch

Fri August 9, 2024 4:52 PM

Uncertainty dominated the day as the indexes swung wildly back and forth several times between red and black, with the Dow at one point being down some 200, at another up some 200, but finally closing up 51 as investors struggle to make sense of recent events, dealing with recession fears and trying to find a bottom. The good news is that the Dow has today recovered more than 800 of the 1,000+ points lost on Monday and the overall indexes ended the week down only slightly, the S&P -0.05%, the Dow -0.6%, the Nasdaq -0.2%.  The VIX has fallen again, today down over 14 points to just over 20, vs over 35 on Monday, indicating nerves are starting to calm. All eyes are now on CPI and retail sales coming next week. Volume was again below the 4-week average of 12.6 billion coming in at 11.1 billion. 

DJ: 39,446.49  +683.04      NAS: 16,660.02  +464.22     S&P: 5,319.31  +119.81      8/8

DJ: 39,497.54  +51.05        NAS: 16,745.30  +85.28       S&P: 5,344.16  +24.85        8/9

Fri 8-9-24 4:52 pm S&P 500 ends up, little changed for week after Monday's steep selloff | Reuters

Nasdaq, S&P 500 end 2% higher in rally after US jobless data

Nasdaq, S&P 500 end 2% higher in rally after US jobless data

By Caroline Valetkevitch

Thu August 8, 2024 4:27 PM

Jobless claims falling more than expected sparked another robust rally today with all three indexes shooting straight up right out the gate and continuing a steady rise all day, closing impressively with mid-range 3-figure gains across the board. One week ago today, weak labor reports sparked a massive sell off due to recession worries which today have been written off as “probably a little overblown.” 

As for the long-term, as stated by today’s expert, “The fact that we’re up a lot doesn’t necessarily mean the lows are in or that we’re going straight up from here. But looking out three months, six months, the tendency to experience above average returns is very high.”  The VIX today dropped to 24 vs 38 on Monday in the depths of the rout. Volume was 11.98 billion, a little below the 4-week average of 12.6 billion.  

 

DJ: 38,763.45  -234.21      NAS: 16,195.81  -171.05     S&P: 5,199.50  -40.53        8/7

DJ: 39,446.49  +683.04     NAS: 16,660.02  +464.22    S&P: 5,319.31  +119.81     8/8

Thu 8-8-24 4:27 pm Nasdaq, S&P 500 end 2% higher in rally after US jobless data | Reuters  

Nasdaq ends down 1% as tech shares fall; Treasury auction weak

Nasdaq ends down 1% as tech shares fall; Treasury auction weak

By Caroline Valetkevitch

Wed August 7, 2024 4:40 PM

Oh brother, this market really doesn’t know how to relax! After yesterday’s rally after a remarkable 3-day rout, said rally continued in earnest this morning with the Dow rising nearly 500 points by 11 a.m.  Then all three indexes started a dive that lasted all day reaching red by 2 pm and continuing into another day of 3-digit losses by close. The trigger today was a weak Treasury auction that sparked the continuing panic. The good news, as today’s expert put it, “You don’t just have the fall we had on Monday and it’s done. You typically test the lows again before we can move out of this downtrend.” This would indicate that this correction is not expected to continue, let alone worsen. Volume came in at 12.9 billion, just a tad above the 12.6 average. 

DJ: 38,997.66  +294.39     NAS: 16,366.86  +166.77     S&P: 5,240.03  +53.70         8/6

DJ: 38,763.45  -234.21      NAS: 16,195.81  -171.05      S&P: 5,199.50  -40.53          8/7

Wed 8-7-24 4:40 pm Nasdaq ends down 1% as tech shares fall; Treasury auction weak | Reuters  

Indexes end with strong gains, rebounding from global market sell-off

Indexes end with strong gains, rebounding from global market sell-off

By Caroline Valetkevitch

Tue August 6, 2024 5:04 PM

Some encouraging anti-recession remarks from Fed officials today began to reverse the panic the market has been besieged with since Thursday triggering at least a buying spree which was really quite exuberant until about 3 pm when all the indexes went south again losing much of the session’s gains. The Dow had in fact risen almost 800 points before falling back to close with a gain of just under 300.  There was no explanation for the eleventh-hour collapse but, nonetheless, the headline of “Indexes End With Strong Gains,” needs to be taken with a grain of salt since they really only recovered about 10% of the last three days’ losses.

But even this modest recovery is very good news as valuations have been very stretched so the correction of the last few days has really just brought the market down to a more realistic and sustainable level. And though Q2 has been quite good, it hasn’t been great. The Fed’s comments, though positive, has caused yet another reassessment of the September rate cut with the odds of the ½ point today lowered to 75% (vs yesterday’s 86%) and the ¼ point raised to 25% (vs yesterday’s 14.) Volume was again exuberant coming in at 13.5 billion, still above the average of 12.5 billion. 

 

DJ: 38,703.27  -1,033.99     NAS: 16,200.08  -576.08      S&P: 5,186.33  -160.23       8/5

DJ: 38,997.66  +294.39       NAS: 16,366.86  +166.77     S&P: 5,240.03  +53.70        8/6

Tue 8-6-24 5:04 pm Indexes end with strong gains, rebounding from global market sell-off | Reuters

Nasdaq, S&P 500 fall 3% each amid US recession fears, Apple drop

Nasdaq, S&P 500 fall 3% each amid US recession fears, Apple drop

By Caroline Valetkevitch

Mon August 5, 2024 5:20 PM

In the biggest 3-day % decline in the market in two years, Wall Street was sending a message loud and clear to the Fed that they’ve waited too long and there better be a rate cut coming in September and, in fact, damn well should have been one last week. Last week’s disappointing Q2 and Q3 forecasts from some of the big tech mega-caps combined with lower than desired employment and manufacturing reports have set the markets into a panic over recession worries. Thursday and Friday both saw 3-digit losses greater each day and today the Dow slipped into a 4-digit loss.  Wall Street is not only telling the Fed a rate cut is needed right now but is insisting that the September cut be ½ point instead of the usual ¼ point with ½ point priced in at 86% vs 14 for ¼ point.

Warren Buffett also triggered some of this sell off by cutting his stake in Apple in half. Does he know something the rest of us don’t? But he’s also leaving $277B in cash at Berkshire Hathaway so plenty of room for new investments. Eyes on what he’ll do next. The VIX hit its highest close in four years, up to an astounding 55 points in the morning but the good news being that the panic subsided throughout the day to close at 38. Other good news included the Chicago Fed prez downplaying the recession scenario and that though the markets overall suffered the worst losses in two years, the critical tech indexes had been at these lows as recently as May meaning we’ve been here before and not long ago. As could be expected, volume was through the roof at 16.5 billion vs the 4-week average of 12.3 billion. 

DJ: 39,737.26  -610.71      NAS: 16,776.16  -417.98      S&P: 5,346.56  -100.12     8/2

DJ: 38,703.27  -1,033.99   NAS: 16,200.08  -576.08      S&P: 5,186.33  -160.23     8/5

Mon 8-5-24 5:20 pm Nasdaq, S&P 500 fall 3% each amid US recession fears, Apple drop | Reuters

Stocks drop, Nasdaq confirms correction as recession fears mount

Stocks drop, Nasdaq confirms correction as recession fears mount

By Chuck Mikolajczak

Fri August 2, 2024 4:39 PM

It was a second day when good inflation news, in this case a weak payrolls report, was seen as a recession predictor and thus sent all indexes into a freefall right out the gate with the S&P at its lowest in two months and the Dow and S&P each seeing their biggest two-day declines in 1-1/2 years. Add to that Amazon and Intel bringing in poor Q2 sending them down 8.8 and 26% respectively and the combo sent the Nasdaq down past the 10% mark, the official signpost of a correction. But the payrolls report proved the biggest trigger as, showing an increase in unemployment of slightly over 0.5% from the previous low, invoked the so-called Sahm Rule which says that any increase above 0.5% (in today’s case 0.53%) almost always immediately precedes recession.

(The graph dating back to 1970 demonstrates this, but it should be noted that 3 times since 1970, this was not the case and an additional 4 times of 8 when the recession was very short-lived.) Claudia Sahm, herself, a former Fed official who invented the indicator, has said that this year’s circumstances are very unique so her metric may very well not be applicable this time. The other good news is that the VIX also shot up to almost 30 before falling back to 23, which triggered brokers advising their clients that a sudden short-term jump in the VIX like that represented a good buying opportunity, an indication that the sell off is not expected to continue.  At 14.75 billion, volume was way above the 4-week average of 11.97 billion. 

DJ: 40,347.97  -494.82     NAS: 17,194.15  -405.25      S&P: 5,446.68  -75.62   8/1

DJ: 39,737.26  -610.71     NAS: 16,776.16  -417.98      S&P: 5,346.56  -100.12 8/2

Fri 8-2-24 6:10 pm Stocks drop, Nasdaq confirms correction as recession fears mount | Reuters  

Stocks slump in August kick-off as data reignites slowdown worries

Stocks slump in August kick-off as data reignites slowdown worries

By Chuck Mikolajczak

Thu August 1, 2024 4:33 PM

The markets continue their longstanding pattern of wanting the economy to contract to hold down inflation and encourage rate cuts but not so much as to threaten recession, both of which are pretty subjective standards. Today, the subjective viewpoint is manufacturing declining to an 8-month low and unemployment applications increasing to an 11-month high, sparking fears that the economy is slowing down too quickly and reigniting concerns that the Fed has waited too long for the rate cuts. This is despite the fact that the slipping megacaps, the major concern for this past month, has proven baseless as their Q2 reports have come in above expectations.

Additionally, all data related to inflation has been more of less on target and 79% of 342 S&P companies have beaten expectations. But it is only one day and, as stated below, “August is typically one of the weakest months of the year for stocks.” The Dow was down over 700 points as late as 2:30 pm. In fact, all the indexes reached a low around 2:30 before beginning a recovery for which no explanation was offered.  The panic selling was well reflected in the considerably above average volume of 14.1 billion vs an average of 11.7 billion. 

DJ: 40,842.79  +99.46       NAS: 17,599.40  +451.98      S&P: 5,522.30  +85.86  7/31

DJ: 40,347.97  -494.82      NAS: 17,194.15  -405.25       S&P: 5,446.68  -75.62   8/1

Thu 8-1-24 4:33 pm Stocks slump in August kick-off as data reignites slowdown worries | Reuters