Equities end flat but Dow ekes out record in strong week

Equities end flat but Dow ekes out record in strong week

By Chuck Mikolajczak

Fri September 20, 2024 4:04 PM

After yesterday’s huge rally following the historic big ½ point rate cut, today the ¼ point folks took over thinking the big cut too risky at this time and all the indexes started the day well into the red. The Dow was down over 150 points in the morning with the Nasdaq and S&P suffering even deeper percentage losses and never recovering. This seemed to come on the heels of Fed Governor Bowman saying that a ¼ point would have been preferred as the market continues to recalibrate. But then fellow Governor Waller stated the opposing position that not only was the ½ point appropriate but that there could be another ½ point in November.

That started a significant if choppy comeback with the Dow in the black by 12:30 and closing modestly 38 points up, nudging it to another record. The two tech indexes also had substantial recoveries but still closed modestly in the red. Overall, mostly thanks to buying at the very end of the session, the markets ended more or less flat. But weekly gains were over 1%, the Dow 1.62%, the Nasdaq 1.49, the S&P 1.36%.  Today, the odds of another ½ point cut in November stand at 50/50. Today was also another “triple witching” event when options and futures contracts all expire and are repurchased on the same day, causing volume to artificially go through the roof. So, volume was way up to 19.97 billion, way over the 4-week average of 11.48, but again artificial so we wait until Monday to see what the real numbers are.  (Why can’t they net out the triple witching to give us a real number on these days?) 

DJ: 42,025.19  +522.09       NAS: 18,013.98  +440.68      S&P: 5,713.64  +95.38         9/19

DJ: 42,063.36  +38.17         NAS: 17,948.32  -65.66         S&P: 5,702.55  -11.09          9/20

Fri 9-20-24 4:04 pm Equities end flat but Dow ekes out record in strong week | Reuters

S&P 500 surges to record high close on euphoria over Fed rate cut

S&P 500 surges to record high close on euphoria over Fed rate cut

By Noel Randewich and Purvi Agarwal

Thu September 19, 2024 4:56 PM

Investors had to sleep on it overnight but ultimately decided this morning that this ½ point rate cut was a great thing and all three indexes went through the roof right out the gate and stayed there all day, closing with very substantial 3-digit gains, the Dow and Nasdaq both achieving new record highs.  In fact, today BofA Research has forecasted an additional ¾ points in cuts before year-end. It also helped that jobless claims were better than expected. Even banking got a big boost with the S&P index climbing 2.5%.  Volume was heavy at 12.3 billion, considerably above the 10.8 billion-average. 

DJ: 41,503.10  -103.08       NAS: 17,573.30  -54.76       S&P: 5,618.26  -16.32          9/18

DJ: 42,025.19  +522.09      NAS: 18,013.98  +440.68     S&P: 5,713.64  +95.38         9/19

Thu 9-19-24 4:56 pm S&P 500 surges to record high close on euphoria over Fed rate cut | Reuters

Equities close slightly lower, trade choppy after Fed rate cut

Equities close slightly lower, trade choppy after Fed rate cut

By Chuck Mikolajczak

Wed September 18, 2024 4:29 PM

The Fed usually makes its announcements right around 2 pm and it was almost exactly 2 pm when all three indexes skyrocketed following a session that was close to flat all around as the markets awaited the news. Then with the coming of an historic outsized ½ point rate cut, everything zoomed, the Dow almost 400 points with the rest of the session being a repeating frequent choppy pattern between big gains and modest losses with all three closing modestly down.

As was stated yesterday, whatever the Fed’s decision, half of the market was going to be frustrated and that was certainly reflected in all the schizophrenic action. To allay recession fears, Powell felt it necessary to emphasize that the large cut in no way reflected any lack of Fed confidence in the health of the economy as it remains well on the path to the 2% inflation goal while remaining quite resilient. In fact, quite the opposite, he felt the ½ point cut reflected strong confidence that the economy would easily roll with the punches. Forecasts are now for at least two and possibly three more cuts in November and December. Volume came in at 11.63 billion, above the 10.82 average.

DJ: 41,606.18  -15.90       NAS: 17,628.06  +35.93       S&P: 5,634.58  +1.49          9/17

DJ: 41,503.10  -103.08     NAS: 17,573.30  -54.76        S&P: 5,618.26  -16.32         9/18

 Wed 9-18-24 4:29 pm Equities close slightly lower, trade choppy after Fed rate cut | Reuters

S&P 500 ends little changed as early gains fade before Fed decision

S&P 500 ends little changed as early gains fade before Fed decision

By Chuck Mikolajczak

Tue September 17, 2024 6:38 PM

All three indexes were up considerably in the morning, the Dow gaining over 230 points by 10:30 to reach a 2^nd consecutive intraday record high. The S&P and Nasdaq followed similar suit being way up in the morning but falling to negative levels almost immediately thereafter to reach the day’s low by 12:30 and then beginning a jagged recovery, the Dow closing just slightly in the red while the Nasdaq eked out a modest gain and the S&P closing flat.  Why all this volatility?  Well, half the market is hoping for a ¼ point cut and the other half for a ½ point cut tomorrow so, either way you look at it, half of the market is going to be disappointed.  

¼ point means we’re not doing enough to pump up the economy, ½ means not enough to avoid recession. For all the many months the markets have been awaiting a rate cut, now there’s nothing but ambivalence about it.  But with strong evidence of much resilience left in the economy and a forecast for a soft landing, the ½ point is still being increasingly favored by the odds-makers, the odds now at 65:35 vs yesterday at 60:40 vs last week at 15:85.  Volume came in at 10.23 billion, a little below the 4-week average of 10.74 billion. 

DJ: 41,622.08  +228.30      NAS: 17,592.13  -91.85       S&P: 5,633.09  +7.07        9/16

DJ: 41,606.18  -15.90         NAS: 17,628.06  +35.93      S&P: 5,634.58  +1.49        9/17

Tue 9-17-24 6:38 pm S&P 500 ends little changed as early gains fade before Fed decision | Reuters

S&P inches up, Nasdaq declines as tech weighs ahead of Fed decision

S&P inches up, Nasdaq declines as tech weighs ahead of Fed decision

By Chuck Mikolajczak

Mon September 16, 2024 6:31 PM

Growing optimism for a ½ point rate cut on Wednesday boosted the Dow into a new record high but not before all three indexes went into a considerable slump after about 10 a.m. and then starting about 11:30 went into an upward trajectory that pushed the S&P back into positive territory to close within 1% of its all-time high. But demand concerns, particularly from Apple and Nvidia, caused a sell off in the tech stars as investors scrambled to raise quick cash as a hedge against the Fed disappointing on Wednesday.  However, the odds of a ½ vs ¼ point cut today went way up to 60:40 as opposed to 15:85 just last Wednesday. Volume came in at 9.74 billion, below the 10.75 average.

DJ: 41.393.78  +297.01       NAS: 17,683.98  +114.30    S&P: 5,626.02  +30.26         9/13

DJ: 41,622.08  +228.30       NAS: 17,592.13  -91.85       S&P: 5,633.09  +7.07           9/16

9-16-24 6:31 pm S&P inches up, Nasdaq declines as tech weighs ahead of Fed decision | Reuters

Wall Street advances as traders' bets rise for bigger Fed rate cut

Wall Street advances as traders' bets rise for bigger Fed rate cut

By Sinéad Carew and Shashwat Chauhan

Fri September 13, 2024 4:08 PM

All three indexes went on a continuous upward trajectory on “unlucky” Friday the 13^th when the New York Fed prez opined that there was now a strong case of a ½ point rate cut on the 18^th.  Another expert threw in his two cents that there was enough investor optimism that a ½ point cut would not indicate a looming recession. Wednesday turned to panic because CPI was a tad too high and that turned into optimism on Thursday with PPI, even though that too was a tad too high. But today seemed to seal the deal as the indexes enjoyed handsome 3-digit gains again. Volume once again came in below the 4-week average of 10.78 billion at 10.15 billion. 

DJ: 41,096.77  +235.06      NAS: 17,569.68  +174.15      S&P: 5,595.76  +41.63          9/12

DJ: 41.393.78  +297.01      NAS: 17,683.98  +114.30      S&P: 5,626.02  +30.26          9/13

Fri 9-13-24 4:08 pm Wall Street advances as traders' bets rise for bigger Fed rate cut | Reuters

Wall Street indexes close up; data keeps smaller Fed rate cut in view

Wall Street indexes close up; data keeps smaller Fed rate cut in view

By Sinéad Carew and Shashwat Chauhan

Thu September 12, 2024 7:10 PM

All three indexes started the day in the red, the Dow down some 200 points, before getting a big boost right at the noon hour. Oddly enough, PPI data came in even higher than yesterday’s CPI, double the estimate, though still essentially flat (0.2% vs 0.1% forecast) but, even though the CPI sent everyone into an initial panic over the quashing of a ½ point rate cut and looming recession, today’s report did the opposite, assuring the market of a ¼ point cut and a soft landing.

There’s really no second-guessing this market. Today’s expert is saying, “As long as investors see that interest rate cut and a path forward for interest rate cuts, they’re excited about prospects in the stock market and especially the growthier sections.”  Today’s odds are now about 70:30 for a ¼ vs ½ point cut. Bargain hunting was also cited as a reason for the big boost.  Volume came in at 10.58 billion, below the average of 10.82 billion. 

DJ: 40,861.71  +124.75      NAS: 17,395.53  +369.65      S&P: 5,554.13  +58.61        9/11

DJ: 41,096.77  +235.06      NAS: 17,569.68  +174.15      S&P: 5,595.76  +41.63        9/12

Thu 9-12-24 7:10 pm Wall Street indexes close up; data keeps smaller Fed rate cut in view | Reuters

Wall Street closes up on tech boost; inflation data dents hopes for big Fed rate cut

Wall Street closes up on tech boost; inflation data dents hopes for big Fed rate cut

By Sinéad Carew and Shashwat Chauhan

Wed September 11, 2024 6:59 PM

All three indexes took a substantial dive right out the gate, the Dow down over 700 points, as the news of CPI data coming in slightly higher than expected thereby dashing hopes of a ½ point rate cut which was dependent on inflation continuing to decrease. Now the Fed is being seen as pressured to go with the smaller rate cut in order to keep inflation from rising even further. This downward trend continued unabated until 11 a.m. when better news from the tech sector sent the markets on a rebound achieving not only break-even by afternoon but even very handsome 3-digit gains for both the Dow and Nasdaq by close. The bets are now 85:15 for a ¼ point vs ½ point cut this month. Volume at 12.19 billion was considerably above the 4-week average of 10.8 billion. 

DJ: 40,736.96  -92.63       NAS: 17,025.88  +141.28      S&P: 5,495.52  +24.47       9/10

DJ: 40,861.71  +124.75    NAS: 17,395.53  +369.65      S&P: 5,554.13  +58.61       9/11

 Wed 9-11-24 6:59 pm Wall Street closes up on tech boost; inflation data dents hopes for big Fed rate cut | Reuters

S&P 500 ends slightly higher but banks and energy weigh

S&P 500 ends slightly higher but banks and energy weigh

By Sinéad Carew and Shubham Batra

Tue September 10, 2024 4:34 PM

Today’s big trigger was Goldman Sach’s announcing that its Q3 revenue was expected to fall 10% which in turn dampened expectations about interest income which sent the whole financial sector down and rippled into the rest of the market as a sign of a weakening economy. Again, it’s the continuing tug of war between lowering inflation and keeping the economy from recession. The announcement must have come right around 11 a.m. because that’s when all the indexes started to sink and all reached lows by noon, the Dow down over 400 points, before all rebounded in the afternoon to close with decent gains in tech and a much smaller loss in the Dow.

But the real angst comes not from signs of the U.S. weakening but of a global weakening as inflation fighting measures are slowing growth throughout the world.  CPI comes Wednesday, PPI Thursday, and as today’s expert put it, none of this even takes into account “the uncertainty with the election cycle.”  All eyes are tight on tonight’s debate. At 10.75 billion, volume was right in line with recent averages. 

DJ: 40,829.59  +484.18      NAS: 16,884.60  +193.77     S&P: 5,471.05  +62.63        9/9

DJ: 40,736.96  -92.63         NAS: 17,025.88  +141.28     S&P: 5,495.52  +24.47        9/10

Tue 9-10-24 4:34 pm S&P 500 ends slightly higher but banks and energy weigh | Reuters

Wall Street indexes bounce back as investors await inflation data, Fed rate cuts

Wall Street indexes bounce back as investors await inflation data, Fed rate cuts

By Sinéad Carew and Shubham Batra

Mon September 9, 2024 4:33 PM

After last week’s rout, investors concluded that the panic was an overreaction and with the weekend’s pause decided today that there were good quality stocks now available at bargain prices. All the indexes saw big boosts that reached their heights about 1 pm, the Dow up some 650 points, before declining to close at still very healthy 3-digit gains. CPI is coming Wednesday and PPI on Thursday, all of which will hotly anticipate whether next week’s rate cut announcement will be for ¼ point or ½ point. 

But investors are very much torn between the two scenarios, expecting disappointment if it’s only ¼ point but recessionary fears if it’s ½ point.  Thus, they’re expecting a negative reaction no matter what the decision is. As today’s expert put it, “It’s a lose-lose situation.”  Wednesday’s report is expected to show 2.6% inflation. Volume came in slightly above recent averages at 10.75 billion. 

DJ: 40,345.41  -410.34      NAS: 16,690.83  -436.83      S&P: 5,408.42  -94.99        9/6

DJ: 40,829.59  +484.18     NAS: 16,884.60  +193.77     S&P: 5,471.05  +62.63       9/9

Mon 9-9-24 :33 pm Wall Street indexes bounce back as investors await inflation data, Fed rate cuts | Reuters

Wall Street stocks fall, big weekly drop as market waits for Fed to move

Wall Street stocks fall, big weekly drop as market waits for Fed to move

By Chibuike Oguh

Fri September 6, 2024 4:22 PM

It was a straight shot down right out the gate with all the indexes incurring major losses as early as 11 a.m. and then staying steady on that path the rest of the day, the Dow and Nasdaq closing with heavy 3-digit deficits. The much- anticipated payrolls report which was feared to be disappointing was taken exactly that way with not only August numbers coming in below expectations but also the double whammy of July numbers also revised downwards. 

This has once again raised serious concerns that the labor market has gone too soft and heading to recession and the Fed is now too late to the game to fix this. So, the panic selling continues with rate cut odds for later this month now at 75:25 for a ¼ vs ½ point cut.  All three indexes suffered losses for the week between 1 and 2.5%. Volume came in at 11.8 billion, above the 10.7 average. 

DJ: 40,755.75  -219.22      NAS: 17,127.66  +43.37      S&P: 5,503.41  -16.66      9/5

DJ: 40,345.41  -410.34      NAS: 16,690.83  -436.83     S&P: 5,408.42  -94.99      9/6

Fri 9-6-24 4:22 pm Wall Street stocks fall, big weekly drop as market waits for Fed to move | Reuters

S&P 500, Dow end lower ahead of key jobs data, Nasdaq up

S&P 500, Dow end lower ahead of key jobs data, Nasdaq up

By Chibuike Oguh

Thu September 5, 2024 4:35 PM

Positive economic reports showing services sector activity up and unemployment claims down boosted tech, the Nasdaq up over 200 points by 10:30, but bringing down the Dow which had losses exceeding 450 points by noon.  Even the S&P enjoyed a modest 26-point gain until about 10:30 a.m.  But shortly thereafter all the indexes took big dives again as investors all braced for tomorrow’s hotly awaited payrolls report which they evidently fear may not be as positive as they want, data that may or may not make a difference in the Fed’s September rate cut decision. Nerves are a bit on edge. After all, historically going back to 1928, the S&P has lost over 1% during September. Only three days in, the index is already down 2.5%, the tech index down 4.8%. Not a good beginning. Of course, this could just as well mean that we’re due for a rebound. Volume is now right in line with the 4-week average at 10.6 billion. 

DJ: 40,974.97  +38.04      NAS: 17,084.30  -52.00       S&P: 5,520.07  -8.86           9/4

DJ: 40,755.75  -219.22     NAS: 17,127.66  +43.37      S&P: 5,503.41  -16.66         9/5

Thu 9-5-24 4:35 pm S&P 500, Dow end lower ahead of key jobs data, Nasdaq up | Reuters  

Stocks fall with safe haven assets in demand, growth concerns in focus

Stocks fall with safe haven assets in demand, growth concerns in focus

By Sinéad Carew and Tom Wilson

Wed September 4, 2024 4:42 PM

After yesterday’s incredible rout, the morning saw the indexes bouncing back into the black, the Dow quite a lot more so than the tech-heavy indexes which bounced back and forth between red and black all day but mostly close to flat. The Dow however was up over 230 points by 11 a.m. as investors flocked to more safe havens, but then spent the afternoon in decline. It was a mixed day for data with new manufacturing orders increasing more than expected, but balanced by the lowest level of job openings in 3-1/2 years. The latter should be further bolstering the case for rate cuts as an indication of continuing lower inflation but, believe it or not, the markets are now actually sweating the previously much coveted ½ point cut as a sign the Fed may be acknowledging they’re behind the curve, a recessionary signal everyone’s been fearing. But the payrolls report due Friday is what everyone is waiting for, which explains that once again volume has been dipped below the 11 billion average coming in at 10.6 billion.   

DJ: 40,936.93  -626.15      NAS: 17,136.30  -577.33      S&P: 5,528.93  -119.47       9/3

DJ: 40,974.97  +38.04       NAS: 17,084.30  -52.00        S&P: 5,520.07  -8.86           9/4

Wed 9-4-24 4:42 pm Stocks fall with safe haven assets in demand, growth concerns in focus | Reuters

Wall Street drops on September worries, upcoming data

Wall Street drops on September worries, upcoming data

By Chibuike Oguh

Tue September 3, 2024 7:04 PM

It was an encore of early August with all the indexes dropping like a rock from the outset and continuing all day long into deep 3-digit losses, the Dow down a whopping 626 points just as it was in early August. At the time they said that August was traditionally the worst month of the year for the market.  Today they are saying that September is traditionally the worst month. The apparent if ignoble reason for the sudden sharp selloff may be attributed to today’s manufacturing report which showed output remained subdued since July’s 8-month low, ignoble because reduced output is good inflation news and rate-cut hopeful. 

Today though it was taken as recessionary and thus a panic-trigger even though experts seem to agree that it’s mostly seasonal and that the “horrible month” scenario is merely a self-fulfilling prophesy. Nevertheless, the so-called Magnificent Seven megacap stocks all took a major hit, particularly the tech darling Nvidia which dove 10%, losing $279B in a single day, the biggest single day loss for a U.S. company in history. The VIX jumped 33% to 20.7, but keep in mind that we don’t start to really worry until it gets over 30. The odds are now roughly 2 to 1 for a ¼ point vs ½ point Fed cut this month. At 12.1 billion, volume has finally surpassed the 4-week average of 11 billion. 

DJ: 41,563.08  +228.03     NAS: 17,713.62  +197.20     S&P: 5,648.40  +56.44         8/30

DJ: 40,936.93  -626.15      NAS: 17,136.30  -577.33      S&P: 5,528.93  -119.47        9/3

Tue 9-3-24 7:04 pm Wall Street drops on September worries, upcoming data | Reuters