Wall St. breaks run of gains as economic data disappoints

There was no point during today’s session that the Dow was in the black and was in fact down almost 200 points as late as 3:30 p.m., though in the final half hour the index recovered to close down 103.  The sell off was due to a flurry of down data - from orders for capital goods falling, to existing home sales dropping to its lowest since 2015.  Whether it’s being driven by the harsh winter or the trade war is a question that’s hard to handle.  But it continues on the plus side that hopes for an end to the trade war and a dovish Fed contribute to the upside whilst a general slowdown in global growth sends it all down.  But the Atlanta Fed now says that the economy grew 1.4% annualized in Q4.  Volume remains below average at 6.9 billion. 

Wall Street ends up slightly as Fed minutes support cautious stance

It was another day of wild swings in a 140 point range and once again ending on the positive side and this time a bit more positive with the Dow up another 63.  Once again the trigger was the Fed reaffirming its policy of “patience” on future rate hikes but not giving any sense of how long that patience would last.  In fact, it seemed the Fed deliberately avoided saying that there would no rate hike later in the year.  Meanwhile, continued optimism over China helped the S&P boost to 18 percent from its December low and is now trading just 5 percent below its record close from September.  Weighing on the market was potential new tariffs on European car imports.  No volume data in today’s Reuter’s report but, per BATS, 7.5 billion shares were traded on all U.S. exchanges. 

Wall Street rises modestly on Walmart bump

It was another wild ride with the Dow swinging back and forth in a 140 point range but ultimately closing just about even.  After a 60 point dip in the morning, the rally thereafter was sparked by a good report from Walmart as well as good news from Amazon and Freeport McMoRan.  The continuing optimism that there will be a deal with China also helped in view of new talks that began today in Washington.  But after rising more than 140 points all afternoon, the gains were lost when the New York Fed issued a statement casting a pall on the current economic outlook, saying it would have to change before rate hikes resumed.  Ordinarily a statement of a delay in future hikes would be welcome news but today the market took it as a sign of impending trouble.  The forecast for Q1 earnings growth got gloomier too as it now stands at a 0.6 percent loss over last year, down from 0.5 on Friday.  Volume remains below average at just under 6.9 billion. 

The Third Monday In February

When I wrote my post last night, I did not think that President's Day was one of the federal holidays observed by Wall Street but, lo and behold, today I discovered otherwise.  Hence with the markets being closed, I will use this space today to do a little editorial on this President's Day holiday that is held every year since 1971 on this third Monday in February. 

Succinct Summations for the week ending February 15th, 2019 (plus Hedge Fund Titans)

Below please find the usual weekly summation with the big plus this week of market gains due to the new budget deal, the big minus that retail sales came in way below forecast - a minus 1.2 percent vs an expected plus of 0.1 percent.  Another minus that really should be a plus are jobless claims being up about 2 percent, but these were mostly residual claims from the shutdown which don't really count since they were both temporary and artificial. 

UNUSUAL INCOME OPPORTUNITIES

This week's episode of PBS's WealthTrack with Consuelo Mack may well be worth checking out as it explores the unusual income opportunities that have now presented themselves in the bond market via its interview with Kathleen Gaffney, portfolio manager of the Eaton Vance Core Plus Bond Fund, which carries a 5-star rating.  It should be 30 minutes well spent.  The link below should take you to the web site where you can watch the program.  Or just google WealthTrack.  Enjoy what's left of this cold but dry weekend. 

Wall Street rallies on trade optimism

Continued optimism over speculation of a positive resolution to the trade war kicked the Dow into high gear with a big boost of 443 points.  However, today’s expert cautions against “false hope” as there are still many “thorny details” to be worked out.  This was reflected in Deere’s poor Q4 report coming in below projections and specifically blamed on the slowing of global trade.  Put succinctly, “absent a tariff solution, growth will continue to slow.”  80 percent of Q4 reporting is now in with an earnings increase of 16.2 percent.  But today Q1 projections fell once again, estimates now at a 0.5 percent decline from last year, down from 0.3 yesterday and 0.2 Wednesday.  Amazon scrapping its New York plans hit both it and all the the FAANG stocks, all in the red for this session.  Volume continues below the 4-week average at 7 billion.