170 Years of Recession

For your amusement (and information) this fascinating little chart posted today on The Big Picture blog shows the 170 history of recessions in the U.S. dating from 1850.  It is of special interest to note that the 2010's has been the only decade in history not to have even one recession.  And no sign of anything on the horizon.  Yet the cynics have been insisting for ten years that a major catastrophic recession is just around the corner.  Food for thought.  Enjoy the weekend. 

Wall Street climbs on solid jobs data, trade hopes

The market was hoping for 180,000 new jobs in November so when the actuals came in at a whopping 266,000 it further cemented the long-held assumption that the economy was fundamentally strong.  Combine that with new statements from the White House that trade talks were going very well, essentially “the reality is constructive talks, almost daily talks; we are in fact close” and the Dow shot up right out the gate and stayed there all day closing up 337 points.  At 6.6 billion, volume was right in line with the 4-week average.  And all three major indexes are once again within 1% of record highs. 

Wall Street inches higher as Dec. 15 tariff deadline looms

The market was in the red most of the day but ended just a little above even with the Dow gaining 28 points.  It was called a day of consolidation as investors try to calibrate the next move in the trade deal. But the bottom line remains, as today’s expert stated, “The markets are going to toggle up and down until we see what happens on December 15^th.”  As for the impeachment, investors are just shrugging it off.  Economic data remains encouraging showing a robust if slowing economy.  All eyes are now on Friday’s employment report where 180,000 new jobs are expected.  Volume was just a little below average at 6.4 billion. 

Wall Street bounces back on renewed trade optimism

I didn’t expect it to happen so soon but it did! Just one day after a nearly 300 point drop triggered by Trump’s comment that there might not be a deal with China for another year, today the commentary from the White House changed dramatically to indicate that trade negotiations were going “very well” and that a deal was close thereby shooting the Dow up nearly 150 points.  Again, today’s expert cautioned against putting too much stock on trade news and instead “investors should not lose sight of solid underlying market fundamentals. The consumer’s on fire.”  Next up: Friday’s employment report.  Volume was a little above average at 7 billion. 

Wall Street falls as trade hopes wane

The sky fell in today. All the hopes throughout the past months for an end to the trade war by year-end got dashed today with the announcement from Trump that he may not do a deal with China now until after next year’s election.  The double-whammy was Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross confirming everyone’s worst fears that the new tariffs against China would take effect December 15^th.  So after yesterday’s 268 point drop, today the Dow dropped another 280 points.  No worries though.  As the trend has been, there’s every likelihood that in the next day or two there will be yet another announcement that a deal is expected after all by December 15^th and the new tariffs will be avoided.  That’s what’s happened in the past, so who knows?  Volume was above average at 7.4 billion. 

U.S. stocks retreat on economy and trade jitters

The tremendous success of the nation’s holiday weekend shopping spree was not enough to overcome today’s announcement of new tariffs on steel and, even though these tariffs are for Brazil and Argentina (not China), the message received was that Trump will allow tariffs increased against China on December 15^th. This combined with contracting manufacturing data sent the Dow plunging 268 points. The weak manufacturing was the fourth in as many months signaling a possible end to expansion which is somewhat irrational given that consensus has been that consumerism will keep the expansion going, something that was much in evidence all weekend.  Nevertheless, between that and the trade issues, investors see hindrance to growth.  At 6.8 billion, volume was exactly in line with recent averages. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.29.19

On Friday, the reports were that Black Friday was a bust and the market sank. But over the weekend new data has surfaced that has said the opposite -- Black Friday was one of the biggest ever!  My hunch is that tomorrow is going to be a very good day for the Dow and S&P.  Below is the weekly summation and it's curious that there's no mention of Black Friday and its impact on the indexes, even though the dour outlook was triggered by the fact that there weren't that many shoppers in line outside the stores Friday morning.  It turns out much of the shopping was done online.  Anyway, tomorrow should be exciting.  Hope everyone had a great holiday weekend.