Succinct Summations week ending April 3rd
Positives:
1. Initial jobless claims fell to 268k, the lowest level in 15 years.
2. Euro-area economic sentiment rose to 103.9, the highest level in nearly four years.
3. Pending homes sales increased 3.1%, the highest reading since June 2013 and above the 0.3% expected rise.
4. Personal income rose 0.4%, better than the 0.3% expected rise.
5. S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rose 0.87% and 4.56% y/o/y, in line with expectations.
6. Markit manufacturing came in at 55.7, slightly better than the 55.3 expected.
7. The S&P 500 finished the quarter in the green for the ninth consecutive time.
8. Unemployment came in at 5.5% and wages rose 0.3% m/o/m and 2.1% y/o/y.
Negatives:
1. NFP came in at 126k vs expectations of 245k, the lowest number since December ‘13
2. US Private Payrolls added 189k jobs in March vs the 225k expected.
3. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index fell from -11.2 to -17.4 in March.
4. Consumer spending rose 0.1%, up from the -0.2% fall in February, but below the 0.2% expected change.
5. ISM manufacturing fell to 51.5, below the 52.5 expected and the slowest expansions since May 2013.
6. Construction spending fell 0.1% m/o/m, in line with expectations.
7. January and February payroll were revised lower by almost 70k.
Eight Takeaways From the March Jobs Report - Bloomberg View
U.S. ECONOMY
Eight Takeaways From the March Jobs Report
APR 3, 2015 10:30 AM EDT From Bloomberg View
Here are the eight quick things to know about the jobs
report released today:
The U.S. employment machine notably lost
momentum in March,
with just 126,000 new jobs added -- far fewer than the consensus expectation of
around 250,000 -- and with revisions erasing 69,000 from the previous two
months’ total, according to the Labor Department. The lackluster result
ends an impressive 12-month run of job gains in excess of 200,000.
The sectoral composition of the job gains and
losses indicates that weather disruptions and international headwinds
contributed to the disappointing number. Together, those forces countered what
is still weak structural U.S. growth momentum.
The most widely followed measure of unemployment, the U-3
rate, was unchanged at 5.5 percent. As such, it remains above the 5
percent to 5.2 percent level that the Federal Reserve is said to regard as the
policy-relevant NAIRU, or non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment. The
more comprehensive U-6
measure fell slightly,
to 10.9 percent, its lowest since August 2008, just before the eruption of the
global financial crisis.
The number of people classified as long-term
unemployed was essentially unchanged, at 2.6 million, or 29.8 percent of the
total, providing further evidence of the structural challenges facing the U.S.
Having vastly lagged the types of gains that could be
expected on the basis of historical models, wage growth edged slightly higher
in March. With a gain of 7 cents an hour for March, the annual increase in
average hourly earnings now amounts to 2.1 percent. Any
positive impact on consumption, however, was offset by the slight decline fall
in the average workweek.
The general improvement in the jobs picture conceals
still stark, though generally narrowing internal divergences. The unemployment
rate for blacks stands at 10.1 percent, compared with 4.7 percent for whites.
And, at 8.6 percent, the jobless rate for those without a high
school diploma far
exceeds the 2.5 percent level for people with a Bachelor's degree and higher.
Equity markets in the U.S. were closed for Good
Friday, and it was left to the bond and foreign- exchange markets to signal the
financial sector’s assessment of the report. With yields declining and the
dollar weakening, they point to downward revisions in growth assessments and
the expectation of a delay of the first interest rate increase by the Federal
Reserve.
The report is a further reminder of how much more the
U.S. economy could -- and should -- achieve if it weren't for political
dysfunction in Washington and a “do little” Congress that preclude more
comprehensive structural reforms, infrastructure spending and a more responsive
fiscal policy.
To contact the author on this story:Mohamed El-Erian at melerian@bloomberg.net
No comments:
Post a Comment