Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Wall St. ends up on Greek hopes ahead of debt deadline

So as of 5 p.m. Detroit time, Greece became the first country in modern history to default when the midnight deadline for extension of critical loans passed in Athens.  Well ... kind of sort of, but not really.

Sure, today was the "official" deadline, but it's likely the case that the real deadline is being informally pushed forward.  Just yesterday, the creditors (meaning Germany) were proclaiming to the world that they were still open to negotiations.  But when late this afternoon, the Greek government agreed to recommend acceptance of the deal in exchange for calling off Sunday's referendum, Merkel changed her mind and said there would be no further negotiations, thereby guaranteeing that the default would take place.  Later in the day, the EU scheduled a meeting for Wednesday to continue discussing a solution for Greece.  Therefore, IMHO, I think an alternate scenario is now quite obvious.  Either a deal will be reached tomorrow ... or ... Germany deliberately wants this referendum gambling that the Greek people will vote to stay in the EU and vote to boot their new leftist government to the curb.  That may have been Germany's plan all along ... let's ask for the impossible so that Greece takes a hike, then cut off the cash to give the Greek people a small taste of the misfortunes that could lie ahead for them, force a referendum and vote the bums out.  My guess is that on Sunday the Greeks will vote to stay in the EU, but there could very well be a settlement by the EU on Wednesday in case it might go the other way.  This whole ugly mess seems now to have gotten very personal and that's going to end up hurting both sides.  This drama is far from over and this Grexit is now being referred to as "Gretigue," or fatigue over Greece.  That's why it's my guess that even though today Greece is officially in default, it won't be long before that becomes mere window dressing.  Despite all the commotion, the Dow actually rose a tad 23 points and on relatively strong volume of 7.5 billion.

Markets | Tue Jun 30, 2015 4:43pm EDT

Wall St. ends up on Greek hopes ahead of debt deadline


DJ:    17,619.51  +23.16       NAS:      4,986.87  +28.40        S&P:      2,063.11  +5.47

(Reuters)  U.S. stocks finished up after a choppy trading day as investors held out hope on Tuesday for deal to keep Greece in the euro even as it veered close to a potential debt default.
Greece, hours from missing a 1.6 billion euro ($1.8 billion) payment due to the International Monetary Fund, submitted a new aid proposal to its creditors, calling for debt restructuring in what seemed like a last-ditch effort by Athens to resolve its impasse with lenders.
The Greek government indicated that it could change its stance on a referendum it scheduled for Sunday if a new loan request could be agreed, euro zone sources told Reuters.
After starting with a rally and then turning negative along with European equities, Wall Street reversed course again in the afternoon on hopes that Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was showing signs of willingness to talk.
"I think (Tsipras) was a little defiant and arrogant and he overplayed his hand," said Kenny Polcari, director of the NYSE floor division at O’Neil Securities in New York. "It could still blow up. There's still nervousness in the market."
U.S. corporations have limited exposure to Greece, but investors are concerned about the fallout across Europe if the country exits the euro zone.
Volatility picked up on Tuesday also due to the expiration of quarterly options. The expiry of weekly options is a day early due to U.S. Independence Day holiday observance on Friday.
On Monday, U.S. stocks had fallen sharply in heavy trading and the S&P 500 and the Dow had their worst day since Oct. 9 due to worries about Greece.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index .DJI ended Tuesday showing a decline for the first half of 2015. The S&P 500 .SPX benchmark showed its first quarterly decline in ten quarters but Nasdaq .IXIC showed its 10th consecutive quarter of gains.
The S&P, the Dow and Nasdaq all closed lower for the month.
Dramatic headlines out of Greece have overshadowed U.S. data so far this week. Single-family home prices rose in April from a year earlier but at a slower pace than forecast, a closely watched survey said on Tuesday.
A separate report showed the U.S. consumer confidence index rose more than expected to 101.4 in June. The consensus was for a reading of 97.3.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 23.16 points, or 0.13 percent, to 17,619.51, theS&P 500 .SPX gained 5.48 points, or 0.27 percent, to 2,063.12 and the Nasdaq Composite.IXIC added 28.40 points, or 0.57 percent, to 4,986.87.
Seven of the 10 major S&P 500 sectors rose, with the telecommunications services, utilities and consumer staples sectors showing very slight declines.
Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by 1,894 to 1,226, for a 1.54-to-1 ratio on the upside; on the Nasdaq, 1,742 issues rose and 1,058 fell for a 1.65-to-1 ratio favoring advancers.
The benchmark S&P 500 index was posting 4 new 52-week highs and 25 new lows; theNasdaq Composite was recording 30 new highs and 108 new lows.

About 7.5 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, compared with the 6.3 billion average for the last five sessions, according to data from BATS Global Markets.

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