Let's begin with the fun stuff, which is the CFP.
This introductory/mentor course that has been consuming all
my time since mid-May has been many times more difficult than I had imagined. It is extraordinarily
rigorous, more rigorous than grad school even, but if the objective is to find
out whether you have a passion for the stuff or, conversely, discover yourself
screaming, “Let me the hell out of here,” then it will be quite worth the
effort.
Still,
it is extremely arduous as the exam questions are taken
directly from the national exam that we will be sitting for in two years after
completing the entire program. There is an exam at the beginning of each session. These
exams are not at all unlike the bar exam, the questions being so terribly
detailed that you almost need to have memorized the book to answer them
correctly. The sheer volume of this very
technical material is horrendous. We are
expected to read and master between 200 and 300 pages of the books for each
class session and then take the exam before we even talk about the
content. I was told at the beginning
that I could expect to spend about three hours preparing for each class
session. No, it’s more like 30
hours. Yes, 3 hours is about sufficient
for a single pass over the material, but there is no way to pass the exam on
just a single reading. I read the
material two or three times over before I feel competent to even attempt the
practice exams. The practice exams have
between 150 to 200 questions.
The
questions on the actual exams come directly from the practice sets but we get
10 questions on the exam so you have to thoroughly master all 200 since there’s
no way of knowing which are going to be among the ten. And the questions are often deliberately
worded deceptively, not to mention as I’ve said that these questions are the
same as the ones on the actual national exam we take in two years. Given that reality, I’ve questioned whether
it’s fair to have these kinds of questions in an intro course. The explanation is that the entire two year
program will have these same questions because they want us getting used to the
complexity of the questions that are on the final. It does certainly explain why the national
exam has only a 40 percent pass rate.
**********************************************
So it
is very tough, the toughest course I’ve ever taken in my life not only because
of the sheer volume but the difficulty of the content. This
intro course concludes at the end of September.
The internship will begin in either October or November. I’m assuming the intensity of the program
will become quite a bit less severe after this intro course. I am very much looking forward to having more
time to cover this material, to actually be taking the exams AFTER we’ve
covered the material rather than before. I am certainly expecting that the
amount of time required to prepare for each class will be greatly reduced once
the core program starts next February.
To just
briefly illustrate the point, the exam this past Wednesday covered eight
chapters of the textbooks including the topics of insurance, economics, and
investments. All of that was covered in
190 pages in two weeks and 150 practice questions for a ten minute exam. In the actual core program, each one of these
topics will be a separate two month course involving a four-hour session each
week. In other words, just in the past
two weeks, we have squeezed in three entire courses that will be covered over a
six month period involving 90 classroom hours, instead of a two-week course and
a 30 minute class session. This has been
typical.
Once
again, I will reiterate that I very much believe that this is being done by
design, that the sheer volume and difficulty of so much material in such a
brief time is being given to us intentionally with the purpose of finding out
whether we come away saying “this stuff is great, can’t get enough of it,” or “you
guys are all nuts, let me the hell out of here!” So far my reaction is that this stuff really
is enjoyable and I can’t get enough of it. But I am very
much looking forward to actually taking two years to digest and master all this
very valuable information.
In
another four weeks, I should certainly have a much more specific idea of where
I stand and what’s in store for me. By
that time I should also be up and running on my new computer. Stay tuned.
Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.19.16
Succinct Summations for the week ending August
19th 2016.
Positives:
1. U.S. Stocks reached new all-time highs this week as Dow, S&P and Nasdaq rallied 3 consecutive days, before giving back a little to end the week.
2. Initial Jobless claims fell to 262k, less than expected, and down from 266k last week.
3. Housing starts came in at a 1.211 million annualized rate, above the 1.180 million expected and up from 1.186mm in June. Multifamily starts rose by 21k m/o/m to 441k vs 387k one year ago.
4. July CPI was flat headline as expected and rose .1% core; On a year over year basis, prices were up 0.8% headline and 2.2% core, both one tenth less than expected.
5.Industrial production rose 0.7%, above the 0.3% expected rise.
6. NAHB home builder sentiment index for August rose to 60 from 58 in July
Negatives:
1. Bill Dudley, tells us the market is under pricing the possibility of rate hikes and that he wants to go again soon. Rate hike odds for the September meeting goes from 16% to 24%
2. Inflation still isn’t showing up in CPI, which came in flat m/o/m and rose 0.8% y/o/y, both below expectations.
3. Mortgage applications fell 4%, the fourth decline in five weeks.
4. For the 3rd straight month in June there was large net foreign selling of US Treasury notes and bonds;
5. Japanese exports fell 14% y/o/y — the biggest drop since 2009.
6. NY manufacturing index in August fell back into contraction at -4.2 from +.6 in July
Plus MY Succinct Daily Summations:
Wall St. ends at record highs; commodity shares climb
Note: Everyone’s still
in wait-and –see as indices once again reached new all-time highs and oil
reached a five-week high sending the Dow up almost 60 points, but again on very
tepid volume of only 5.5 billion shares.
We may be entering another secular bull market as earnings continue to
exceed expectations. Meanwhile, the Fed
meets again tomorrow, but no one’s expecting any surprises there either.
DJ: 18,636.05 +59.58 NAS: 5,262.02
+29.12 S&P: 2,190.15
+6.10 8/15
Wall St. slips from highs after Fed officials' rate
comments
Note: A slight
downturn from record highs today as the markets retreated on casual comments
from the first day of the August Fed meeting that an interest rate hike is
possible for September, and likely before the end of the year. No one really seriously expects a September
hike and a hike near year-end has always been in the cards so no surprises yet. As it has been for a while now, volume was
quite light at just 5.9 billion.
DJ: 18,552.02 -84.03 NAS: 5,227.11
-34.90 S&P: 2,178.15
-12.00 8/16
Wall St. ends up slightly as Fed minutes show split over
rate timing
2016.REUTERS/Brendan
McDermid
Note: Yesterday the
Fed’s rumination over a possible September rate hike sent the Dow down 84
points. Today a like rumination in the
other direction sent it back up 22 points.
But the Fed is being consistent with its position that more data is
needed before decisions are made so any market reaction has to be taken as
premature and with a grain of salt. Indices
remain at record highs and volume remains tepid though today at 6.4 billion it
was in line with recent averages, even if the recent averages are still below
historical averages.
DJ: 18,573.94 +21.92 NAS: 5,228.66
+1.55 S&P: 2,182.22
+4.07 8/17
Wall St. inches up with energy gain, Wal-Mart
Note: Target and Lowe’s may have put a momentary
damper on things but Walmart and oil more than made up for it pushing the Dow
up another 24 points. The bottom line is
the market is doing well, the economy is proving resilient, and it’s been a
good year for value investors. Still
with the metrics at record highs, a pause is not at all out of the
question. Until more data comes in,
volume remains light at 5.9 billion.
DJ: 18,597.70 +23.76 NAS: 5,240.15
+11.49 S&P: 2,187.02
+4.80 8/18
Wall St. dips as investors assess rate outlook
DJ: 18,552.57 -45.13 NAS: 5,238.38
-1.77 S&P: 2,183.87
-3.15 8/19
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