After that, there'll be a long overdue vacation to New York City and Philadelphia. My last vacation was 12 years ago last month in 2004 and I'm grabbing another one now since, as soon as I start my internship, I won't have another break for at least 18 months. I'll be vacationing until November 2nd or 3rd and then immediately jumping into interviews for the internship.
I did finally take delivery of the missing components of my new computer on Tuesday but have not come up for air until after the Saturday evening premiere of the video. So this is the first week in a long while that I have nothing booked and will plan to use it setting up the new desktop. However, since I'll be in symposium and then on vacation immediately after that, I will not start the daily blog again until my return from the East Coast.
Therefore, owing to my commitment, the succinct weekly summary is presented below with my daily missives included below that. Hopefully I'll have a newly working computer by next weekend but not really able to start using it until November. Hope everyone had a great weekend.
Succinct Summations of Weeks Events 10.7.16
Succinct Summations for the week ending
October 7th 2016
Positives:
1. Private sector figure + upward revisions slightly beat expectations. 3 month private sector job gain is now 177k (vs 6 month average of 153k)
2. Jobless claims fell to 249k, the 4-week average fell to 249k, falling for the seventh consecutive week.
3. Average hourly earnings were up by 0.2% m/o/m and 2.6% y/o/y. Average weekly earnings were up 2.3%. Workweek rose back to 34.4 hours;
4. Total vehicle sales came in at a 17.8M annualized rate, up 4.7% (17.65mm SAAR)
5. ISM Non-manufacturing index rose to 57.1. from 51.4 previously and above the 52.9 expected; ISM manufacturing came in at 51.5 in September, above the 49.2 previous reading and above the 50.2 expected.
6. Drop in mortgage rates helped refi’s which were up 4.7%
Negatives:
1. Purchase applications to buy a home down almost 14% y/o/y on tough comparisons as last year’s figure was juiced by regulatory changes.
2. Construction spending fell 0.7% m/o/m and 0.3% y/o/y. Both private residential and non residential spending fell.
3. FX is a mess, with disorderly moves and flash crashes. In the UK. Yes, pound weakness puts the 10 yr Gilt yield up 7 bps on the day and 20 bps on the week due in part to a global rise in rates but also on import inflation concerns.
4. PMI manufacturing fell from 52 to 51.5 in September.
5. Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for Q3 has fallen to 2.2% from 2.4% last week, 2.9% in the week prior and vs 3.5% one month ago.
6. Bloomberg consumer comfort index fell to 41.11, after hovering around 44 for most of the year.
BUSINESS NEWS |
Wall Street dips in slow start to fourth quarter
DJ: 18,253.85 -54.30 NAS: 5,300.87
-11.13 S&P: 2,161.20
-7.07 10/3
Friday’s
elation over Deutsche Bank’s good fortunes went back to caution again today as
sentiment immediately switched back to anxiety over the election and Wells
Fargo as the Dow dropped 54 points.
However, trading was light at 5.9 billion so it’s really Wall Street
just stepping back and taking a breath, something that’s very healthy now and
then.
Threat of 'hard Brexit' pulls
down Wall Street
Wall
Street drops on rate hike fears.
DJ: 18,168.45 -85.40 NAS: 5,289.66
-11.21 S&P: 2,150.49
-10.71 10/4
Today’s
announcement from London that the Brexit may well be moved up one full year to
the spring of 2017 sent shock waves throughout the global markets sending the
Dow down steadily throughout the day to close 85 points lower. The announcement also triggered a massive
sell off in the British pound knocking British sterling to its lowest price in
30 years. That’s a big thrashing for one
day. Then there was the Richmond Fed
opining that an interest rate increase must come sooner than later for the good
of the economy. Then the IMF downgraded
the U.S. growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.6%, down a whopping 27 percent in one
day, another big thrashing. Add to that
the continuing anxiety about the election and there was a lot of bad news
today. Given the context, 85 points
wasn’t really that much, especially on the rather robust volume of 7.2 billion
shares. Is this really a bad thing or is
it just another day of stepping back and taking a breath? Tomorrow we’ll know better.
Energy, bank stocks lead Wall Street higher
DJ: 18,281.03 +112.58 NAS: 5,316.02
+26.36 S&P: 2,159.73
+9.24 10/5
If the last
two sessions were the market stepping back and taking a breath, today investors
decided that things are good again and jumped right back in. Good news on oil among other positive
economic data shot the Dow up 112 points.
Even the expected coming interest rate hike is now seen as a positive
since it will boost financial stocks.
There’s also increasing optimism of impending good news on Q3, all of
which is reflected in the rather handsome volume 7 billion shares.
Wall Street ends flat with eyes on payrolls
DJ: 18,268.50 -12.53 NAS: 5,306.85
-9.17 S&P: 2,160.77
+1.04 10/6
The day may
have ended flat with a mere 12 point loss on the Dow but it started out with a
big dive before recovering right around noon and then staying steady until the
close. Good news on oil and unemployment
did not stop the big dip all morning before investors apparently decided that
tomorrow’s jobs report is what’s really important and thus backed off on
expectations it will be good news with 175,000 new jobs. Volume was below average at 6.3 billion.
Wall Street off as pound crashes, jobs data keeps Fed on track
DJ: 18,240.49 -28.01 NAS: 5,292.40
-14.45 S&P: 2,153.74
-7.03 10/7
Job numbers
came in at 156,000 vs a forecast of 175,000 – not bad but also not enough to
allay fears of an interest hike. And the
S&P trading at 17 times earnings, a near decade high was also not helping
fears of a coming correction. But the
Brits are what really did it today.
First they stun the world by voting for the Brexit and now, this past
week, have made matters considerably worse by announcing the exit a full year
ahead of schedule, something that has sent the global markets into
turmoil. The British pound took a real
beating this week (big surprise) but then today, when they had a flash crash
that dropped the pound another ten percent in just a few minutes that sparked
sufficient nerves to drop the Dow 150 points.
Then, later in the session, investors decided that the value of the
pound didn’t really impact the price of bread that much here in the colonies so
the indexes all went back up ultimately closing just 28 points down. Volume was a little below average at 6.6
billion.
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