Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.8.17 (plus putting investor fears into perspective)

The usual weekly summation is below.  Last week the market didn't have too much trouble adjusting to the bad news surrounding Harvey.  Let's see if we have the same reaction this week to Irma.  This Sunday's bonus is for the glass half-full crowd.

Mr. Rithotz's presentation at a Morningstar conference of all the rational reasons why we are quite often irrationally in fear and usually in fear about the wrong things.  If you click on the link, you will find a rather lengthy slide presentation on this topic.  My favorite slide illustrates the following: 

 # Americans killed annually by:

               Terrorists   16

               Lightning  31

               Hit by bus  264

               Falling out of bed  737

               Shot by another American   11,737

I'm sure that household accidents would probably dwarf all of these by a huge margin. Anyway, I found the subject both amusing and informative.  Enjoy.  Hope to see you all tomorrow night., 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.8.17

September 8, 2017 4:30pm by Barry Ritholtz

Succinct Summations for the week ending September 8th, 2017

Positives:

1. Debt Ceiling Deal tied to Hurricane Harvey Aid reduces odds of government shutdown
2.Core durable goods orders in July were revised up to a 1% m/o/m gain vs the first print of up .4%. 
3. ISM non-manufacturing index rose from 53.9 to 55.5.
4. Nonfarm productivity rose to a 1.5% SAAR, up from 0.9% previously and above the 1.3% expected.
5. MBA mortgage applications rose 3.3% w/o/w.
6. PMI services index rose from 54.7 to 56.

Negatives:

1. Jobless claims rose 62k to 298k, up from 236k.
2. Factory orders fell 3.3% m/o/m, slightly below the 3.2% expected fall.
3. Summer is over . . .

Morningstar: Crashes & Terrorists & Sharks, Oh, My!

September 8, 2017 9:00am by Barry Ritholtz

Yesterday, at the Morningstar conference, I discussed why people — especially when acting as investors — tend to misunderstand risk. The reasons tend to be the same: We allow visceral things that carry a large emotional component to overwhelm our thought processes and cause a massive fear response.

These responses, according to evolutionary biology, helped keep our ancestors alive long enough to procreate . . . but they interfere with our off label usage of our brains in capital markets.

Morningstar: Crashes & Terrorists & Sharks, Oh, My! - The Big Picture