S&P Hoop dee doo!

So there's been much hoop dee doo in the last couple of days about the S&P scoring its longest running bull market in history.  And no sooner was the proclamation made that any number of pundits and wizards emerged to challenge the claim.  In fact, I believe that Barry Ritholtz wrote a column just a few short weeks ago challenging the validity of this "longest running" bull market.  And let's face it, me thinks they've got a point.

After all, on January 26th the S&P started a tumble and went through the ordained twenty percent downfall that defines a correction.  The fact that on Friday the S&P finally rose above its January 26th level should not by any means be taken that the bull market never ended, that the correction never occurred.  There was a correction.  The bull market ended January 26th.  This new bull market started in February, not ten years ago as Friday's proclamations hailed.  By this standard, we've been in a continuous bull market since 1932 when the Great Depression hit bottom.  But of course no reasonable person would accept the validity of such a statement.  So just for giggles, I am submitting an article published Wednesday that gives more credence to the doubters, like myself, who say the bull market has not lasted ten years.  Enjoy your weekend.


Wed 8-22-18 S&P 500 bull market now arguably the oldest ever | Reuters

AUGUST 22, 2018 / 8:16 AM / 3 DAYS AGO

S&P 500 bull market now arguably the oldest ever

Reuters Staff

(Reuters) - The S&P 500's .SPX bull market turned 3,453 days old on Wednesday, making it the longest such streak in history, according to some investors' definition.

The market took the milestone in stride, with the benchmark stock index edging 0.04 percent lower a day after it set an all-time intraday high that slightly exceeded the previous one set in late January.

 “Length is not necessarily the thing I’m interested in. More so it could be the new high for the year,” said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading, in Chatham, New Jersey.

Wall Street is widely considered to be in a bull market that started on March 9, 2009, when investors grappled with the global financial crisis that had vaporized over half of the U.S. stock market’s value. Since then, the index has more than quadrupled.

Now after nine years and five months, investors are debating when, not if, the current run-up in stock prices will end.

Bull and bear markets are identified only retroactively, and it is too soon to say for certain whether a correction in the S&P 500 in February marked the end of the bull market and the start of a bear market.

To be sure that the S&P 500 is still in a bull market, it would have to close above its record high set on Jan 26, which it failed to do on Tuesday.

“That potential new high is important,” S&P Dow Jones Indices analyst Howard Silverblatt wrote in a research note. “(If) we drop 20 percent before we reach a new high, we will go back and declare that the current bull market ended on January 26, 2018, the last high.”

Wednesday’s record is also debatable because Wall Street experts define bull and bear markets differently.

Some experts say a bull market occurred from 1990 to 2000, which would make the current one the longest ever. Others say that bull market started in 1987 and ran to 2000, which would be three years longer than the current bull market.

Apple Inc (AAPL.O) is responsible for 4.1 percent of the S&P 500’s return since March 9, 2009, more than any other company. Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) is second, with a 2.4 percent contribution, according to Silverblatt. 

 (For an interactive graphic on 'The long bull run in context' click here)