Succinct Summation of Weeks Events 11.16.18 (plus corporate bonds)

The usual weekly summation is posted below, the biggest positive that the Fed may be getting ready to announce a pause in rate increases, something I'm not at all sure is wise but will certainly be most welcome by the market.  The biggest negative might also be taken as a positive, that is the Brexit chaos.  It's a negative because it is chaotic, but a positive from the point of view that all this mayhem may just lead to Britain having a change of heart, which would be good for them, the EU, and the rest of us.  This Sunday's "a picture is worth a thousand words" graphic shows in one eye-shot the state of corporate bonds and the unfortunate fact that more than half have now been downgraded to BBB.  But though they represent only about 1/2 trillion dollars, there are still a fair amount of AA and AAA issues out there to consider.  Looking forward to the short week ahead. 

Succinct Summation of Weeks Events 11.16.18

November 16, 2018 5:30pm by Barry Ritholtz

Succinct Summations for the week ending November 16th, 2018

Positives:

1. The FOMC seems ready to pause raising rates for a meeting;
2. WTI Oil prices have completed a round trip, falling back to where they were in in 2017.
3. Retail sales rose 0.8% in October, exceeding the expected 0.5% increase; Same store sales rose 6.1% w/o/w for the second week in a row.
4. CPI rose 0.3% m/o/m, meeting expectations.
5. Business inventories rose 0.3% m/o/m, meeting expectations.

Negatives:

1. Brexit mayhem  is a fresh reminder that European alliances are fraying under the combined weight of popularism and agnotology.
2. The 30 yr mortgage rate hit 5.17% — an 8 1/2 year high.
3. Jobless claims rose 2k w/o/w, from 214k to 216k.
4. Import and export prices rose 0.5% and 0.4% m/o/m.
5. Mortgage applications fell a seasonally-adjusted 2.3% w/o/w, reaching the lowest level since February 2017.

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