Friday the 13^th turned out to be fairly lackluster, neither good nor bad with the Dow gaining a modest 37 points. Apple’s new iPhone got a mixed review from Goldman Sachs which sent the stock down nearly 2 percent and was the biggest drag on all the indexes.  Still, the Dow has had eight consecutive winning sessions, its longest streak in over a year and there was a ton of buying of 10-year T-Bills sending the yield up substantially.  How the tariff thaw and 10-year yield is being described as “holding back the market” is something that is unclear to me.  There’s been no mention as to whether the yield curve inversion has reversed itself but given the big upsurge in the 10-year, I have to assume it has and is no longer presenting recession fears.  Retail sales in August were also twice what was expected pointing to strong and continuing consumer spending, confidence, and cheerfulness.  Volume remains above average at just under 7 billion. 

fri  SEPTEMBER 13, 2019  5:54 pm 

S&P edges lower as Apple weighs, trade tensions ease

Stephen Culp

DJ:  27,182.45  +45.41        NAS:  8,194.47  +24.79         S&P:  3,009.57  +8.64       9/12

DJ:  27,219.52  +37.07        NAS:   8,176.71  -17.75         S&P:  3,007.39   -2.18       9/13

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended the day down slightly on Friday but less than 1% below its all-time high as a drop in Apple stock countered cooling U.S.-China trade tensions.  Tariff-vulnerable industrials helped keep the blue-chip Dow in positive territory, which has now gained in eight straight sessions, its longest winning streak since May 2018.  All three major U.S. stock indexes posted their third straight weekly gains, capping a week that saw signs of a potential thaw in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies, which has gripped markets for months.

Apple Inc (AAPL.O) was the biggest drag on the major stock averages, falling 1.9% after Goldman Sachs cut its price target for the iPhone maker’s shares.  Beijing announced it would exempt some U.S. agricultural products from additional tariffs after President Donald Trump suggested he could be open to an interim deal, the latest conciliatory gestures by both sides of the trade war ahead of next month’s negotiations in Washington.  “Apple is holding back the averages,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York.   

“Another factor is we have a huge rally in (Treasury) yields, the 10-year is up substantially. Those two factors are holding back the market and dampening the enthusiasm that some kind of cosmetic trade deal is on its way.”  However, rising Treasury yields did boost interest-rate sensitive financials .SPSY, which gained 0.8%. 

On the economic front, U.S. retail sales increased in August at twice the rate analysts expected, according to the Commerce Department, suggesting that strong consumer spending will continue to support the longest-ever U.S. economic expansion.  “The consumer is pretty cheerful,” Cardillo added. “Going into the holiday season the consumer is likely to continue to spend, and that bodes well as far as the consumer-led economy is concerned.”

Ebbing trade jitters and upbeat retail sales data helped U.S. Treasury yields reach multi-week highs, providing an attractive alternative to risk-averse investors.  Market participants now look to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting next week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 37.07 points, or 0.14%, to 27,219.52, the S&P 500 .SPX lost 2.18 points, or 0.07%, to 3,007.39 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 17.75 points, or 0.22%, to 8,176.71.  Of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, five closed in the red, with real estate .SPLRCR suffering the largest percentage loss, 1.3%.  Materials .SPLRCM was the biggest percentage winner, gaining 1.1%. 

Chipmaker Broadcom Inc (AVGO.O) slipped 3.4% after the company missed quarterly revenue estimates late Thursday and said that while semiconductor demand has likely hit bottom, the timing of a recovery remains uncertain.  Progressive Corp (PGR.N) fell 5.6% after the insurer reported a 36% year-on-year drop in August net income.  Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc (LL.N) plunged 13.2% after founder Thomas Sullivan told Bloomberg he was holding off on plans to take the company private.  Tyson Foods Inc (TSN.N), the largest U.S. meat processor, advanced 2.0% on China’s tariff exemption announcement. 

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.11-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.21-to-1 ratio favored advancers.  The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 20 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 6.93 billion shares, compared with the 6.75 billion-share average over the last 20 trading days.