The Dow was up 110 points in the morning, then dropped 130 points by noon, then came back, then fell again to close a modest 23 points up.  This was pretty much the same trend as yesterday except that today everyone is singing the praises of the day’s developments just because we closed a tiny bit in the black instead of crying gloom and doom from yesterday’s tiny bit in the red.  Well, yesterday’s tiny bit in the red was no indication of a downward trend and today’s is none so for an upward.  And those who are singing the praises just because of a few tentative pluses are being way premature.  It’s especially premature to assume that the expansion is losing steam just because of one day of underwhelming data.  We’re only 3 days into Q3 reporting and the weak volume suggests a lot of fence sitting.  The one good thing is that 82% of the 62 companies reporting to date have beaten estimates and that has already brought the S&P earnings estimate from last week’s 3.2% decline to 2.9% today.  It has been the trend in past quarters that the more companies that report the better the earnings forecast becomes. So let’s wait for all the chicks to hatch. 

thu  OCTOBER 17, 2019 / 6:01 pm 

U.S. stocks gain on upbeat earnings, geopolitical news

Stephen Culp

DJ:  27,001.98  -22.82         NAS:  8,124.18  -24.52         S&P:  2,989.69  -5.99        10/16

DJ:  27,025.88  +23.90        NAS:  8,156.85  +32.67        S&P:  2,997.95  +8.26       10/17

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street advanced on Thursday as investor sentiment was buoyed by a string of corporate earnings beats and encouraging geopolitical developments.  A broad-based rally led all three major U.S. stock averages to moderate gains.

Britain and the European Union agreed to a severance deal, moving closer toward wrapping up three years of uncertainties after Britons voted to leave the bloc.  Upbeat statements from Beijing and Washington fueled hopes that a phased agreement could ease the long-running U.S.-China trade war that has rattled markets for months.  And Turkey agreed to pause its Syria assault to allow for the withdrawal of Kurdish forces.   “The Turkish cease fire is viewed positively,” said Stephen Massocca, senior vice president at Wedbush Securities in San Francisco. “Good news for Trump is good news for the market.”  “From an investment perspective, the market likes the Trump agenda,” Massocca added.

Analysts now see third-quarter S&P 500 earnings falling by 2.9%, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S, marking the first contraction since the earnings recession that ended mid-2016.  But of the 63 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported so far, 82.5% have come in above estimates.  “(Results have) been good, but we haven’t really gotten enough data points yet to see how earnings will be versus expectations,” Massocca said. “Bring on Google, bring on Amazon, bring on Facebook, bring on Deere.”

Morgan Stanley (MS.N) rounded out big bank earnings with better-than-expected third-quarter profits, driven by bond trading and M&A advisory strength, sending its shares up 1.5%.

Streaming pioneer Netflix Inc (NFLX.O) advanced 2.5% after the company reported a rebound in subscribers in the third quarter. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 24.18 points, or 0.09%, to 27,026.16, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 8.28 points, or 0.28%, to 2,997.97 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 32.67 points, or 0.4%, to 8,156.85.  Of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, all but technology .SPLRCT closed in the black, with healthcare .SPXHC, real estate .SPLRCR and communications services .SPLRCL enjoying the largest percentage gains. 

In other earnings news, shares of International Business Machines Corp were the biggest drag on the blue-chip Dow, sinking 5.5% after missing quarterly revenue estimates.  Honeywell International Inc’s (HON.N) quarterly results fell short of analyst expectations, but positive geopolitical developments helped the international conglomerate gain 2.4%.

On the economic front, a spate of underwhelming data supported the notion that the longest period of expansion is U.S. history could be running out of steam. Housing starts, industrial production and mid-Atlantic factory output all fell short of economist expectations.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.10-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.90-to-1 ratio favored advancers.  The S&P 500 posted 36 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 60 new highs and 60 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 6.01 billion shares, compared with the 6.79 billion average over the last 20 trading days.