Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.8.19 (plus Astrology Based Stock Picking)

As usual, below is the weekly summation, the positives being continued hopes for a quick resolution to the trade war, the negatives dominated by the increasing likelihood of impeachment, which could just as easily be a positive depending on one's perspective.  Q3 is also listed as a negative but could (even should?) be a positive considering that it is ending on a much better note than was originally forecast six weeks ago.

The bonus this Veterans Day weekend is an amusing article from today's Big Picture blog about a new app that uses a person's astrological sign to pick stocks for them.  Considering that one of the most influential texts on stock picking was written decades ago titled "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" by Princeton professor Burton Malkiel, using astrology for this purpose shouldn't surprise anyone.  After all, Malkiel's entire thesis is to forget all the finance Ph.D.s who run all the biggest and baddest funds, his detailed analysis of the market revealed that a monkey throwing darts at the stocks page of the newspaper had chances of picking winning stocks just as well as the experts.  In other words, total randomness was every bit as good a strategy as any other.  So why would using astrology be any less accurate than any other strategy?  The only disappointment was that the author of the article did not bother to test the app.  Now that's an article I'd like to read.  Anyway, it's good for a giggle.  Hope everyone enjoyed the weekend, bracing for the blast of snow and cold we're in for, and enjoy your Veterans Day even if the markets and most of the rest of us will for the most part be on the job.


Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 11.8.19

November 8, 2019 5:00pm by Barry Ritholtz

Succinct Summations for the week ending November 8th, 2019

Positives:

1. Hope stays alive for a trade deal with China before the end of the year…
2. Jobless claims fell 8k w/o/w from 219k to 211k.
3. International trade deficit came in at -$52.5B for September, meeting expectations.
4. Same store sales rose 5.5% w/o/w, above the previous increase of 4.5%.
5. Consumer sentiment came in at 95.7 for early November, above the previous 95.5.
6. ISM Mfg index came in at 54.7 for October, above the expected 53.5.

Negatives:

1. Impeachment proceedings are accelerating; a parade of damning witnesses is on deck for next week also.
2. Job openings fell 3.8% m/o/m from 7.051M to 7.024M.
3. Q3 productivity disappointed, falling 0.3% (q/o/q annualized) vs. estimate of + 0.9%.
4. Home mortgage apps fell 3.0% w/o/w, below the previous increase of 2.0%; Consumer credit came in at $9.5B m/o/m, below the expected $15B.
5. PMI index came in at 50.6 in October, below the expected 51.0.
6. Factory orders fell 0.6% m/o/m, below the expected decrease of 0.5%.

11-10-19 Astrology-based Stock Picking App - The Big Picture

Astrology-based Stock Picking App

November 8, 2019 10:00am by Barry Ritholtz

Source: The Verge

We all know the odds are stacked against the stock pickers who try to outperform the broad indexes. The need an edge to offset their higher costs and turnover. Perhaps they might consider using Astrology . . . ?

This is pretty amusing, and I assume, intended as a joke. Still, it is quite telling:

“Bull & Moon is the first app that gives personalized stock recommendations based on astrological compatibility; your birthday and publicly traded companies’ birthdays (better known as their founding date). But the question remains, can an astrology-based investment strategy outperform the market?”

If you have any doubts about this as a goof, just look at the source: its from the professional pranksters behind MSCHF, the group behind the font Times Newer Roman, “a sneaky font designed to make your essays look longer.”

See Also: Bull and Moon and App Store