Yesterday’s expert who opined, “I don’t see a whole lot of upside or downside here in the near term” was already proven wrong just one day later with another big 3-digit loss on both the Dow and Nasdaq, 308 down on the Dow.  Today’s data showed more that 11.2 million new job openings in July (plus June was revised sharply higher) which threw more panic in the fire that the Fed must continue rate increases in order to cool down demand and decrease the need for labor. Of course the big fears is that this will lead to layoffs and recession. 

The good news is that consumer confidence rebounded strongly despite all this and it’s been the consumer that’s been saving the economy so far. The other good news is that the various Fed presidents have widely varying opinions on the dangers -- from New York saying today that there will be no rate cuts at all next year -- to Atlanta saying a “dial back” could be coming quite soon -- to Richmond standing by previous statements that the rate hikes will not result in a serious recession.  And investors are saying, “We’ll believe it when we see it,” unwilling to back off from the selling and volatility until they see those first cuts, which may be quite some time.  Volume was in line with the 4-week average at 10.5 billion. 

Tue  August 30, 2022  4:34 PM

Wall St closes down for 3rd straight session on Fed rate hike worry

By Chuck Mikolajczak

DJ: 32,098.99  -184.41       NAS: 12,017.67  -124.04       S&P: 4,030.61  -27.05      8/29

DJ: 31,790.87  -308.12       NAS: 11,883.14  -134.53       S&P: 3,986.16  -44.45      8/30

NEW YORK, Aug 30 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed lower for a third straight session on Tuesday as a rise in job openings fueled fears the U.S. Federal Reserve has another reason to maintain its aggressive path of interest rate hikes to combat inflation.  The benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) has tumbled more than 5% since Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday reaffirmed the central bank's determination to raise interest rates even in the face of a slowing economy. read more  Labor demand showed no signs of cooling as U.S. job openings rose to 11.239 million in July and the prior month was revised sharply higher. A separate report showed consumer confidence rebounded strongly in August after three straight monthly declines. read more

"They have to weaken the labor market and how are they going to do that – they are going to jam rates and make things so expensive that people are going to pull back, demand is going to fall off, and people are going to get laid off," said Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors in Boca Raton, Florida.  "It locks them in even further."  The data increases the focus on the August non-farm payrolls data due on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 308.12 points, or 0.96%, to 31,790.87, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 44.45 points, or 1.10%, to 3,986.16 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 134.53 points, or 1.12%, to 11,883.14. 

 

New York Fed President John Williams said on Tuesday the central bank will likely need to get its policy rate about 3.5% and is unlikely to cut interest rates at all next year as it fights inflation. read more

However, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in an essay published on Tuesday the Fed could "dial back" from its recent string of 75 basis point hikes if new data shows inflation is "clearly" slowing. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the Fed's pledge to bring inflation down to its 2% goal will not necessarily result in a severe recession. read more  Traders are pricing in a 74.5% chance of a third straight 75-basis point rate hike at the Fed's September meeting. 

 

Each of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were in negative territory, with the energy sector (.SPNY) down 3.36%, the biggest percentage decliner, as oil prices settled down more than 5% on concerns that the slowing of global economies could sap demand. read more  Rate-sensitive megacap growth and technology stocks such as Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O), down 0.85%, and Apple Inc (AAPL.O), off 1.53%, were among the biggest drags on the benchmark index.

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have broken below their 50-day moving average. The S&P 500 also briefly fell below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from its June low to August high, another key technical indicator watched by analysts as support.  The CBOE Volatility index, also known as Wall Street's fear gauge, rose for the third straight session and hit a six-week high at 27.69 points.

Adding to worries, Taiwan's military fired warning shots at a Chinese drone which buzzed an islet controlled by Taiwan near the Chinese coast. read more  Best Buy Co (BBY.N) rose 1.61% as one of the biggest gainers on the S&P 500 after it reported a smaller-than-expected drop in quarterly comparable sales thanks to steep discounts. read more

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.51 billion shares, compared with the 10.54 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 4.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.44-to-1 ratio favored decliners.  The S&P 500 posted no new 52-week highs and 18 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 15 new highs and 217 new lows.