U.S. stocks slip while yields rise, Fed in focus

You would have thought that today’s tentative agreement to settle the much-feared rail strike would have caused a significant rally.  Instead, it was a choppy day as the Dow seesawed back and forth twice between about 150 up and 250 down before closing at 173 down. It was another day where good news was taken as bad as a slew of positive economic reports showing retail sales up, car sales up, unemployment down were just another nail in the rate increase coffin.  

With the economy showing so much resiliency, there is little reason to believe the Fed will not continue with its aggressive tightening policies. The inverted yield curve is today up to 41 basis points, more than triple from a week ago, meaning the 2-year note is now paying 0.4% more than the 10 year.  It was also not encouraging that the World Bank today said we were edging toward a global recession.  No volume data included in this report this date but per the CBOE, volume was 11.2 billion. 

Thu  September 15, 2022  4:34 PM

U.S. stocks slip while yields rise, Fed in focus

By Sinéad Carew

DJ: 35,135.09  +30.12        NAS: 11.719.68  +86.10        S&P: 3,946.01  +13.32     9/14

DJ: 30,961.82  -173.27       NAS: 11,552.36  -167.32       S&P: 3,901.35  -44.66      9/15

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Wall Street indexes were firmly in the red after a choppy start to Thursday's session while bond yields rose as investors digested economic data that provided the Federal Reserve little reason to ease its aggressive interest rate hiking cycle.  Oil futures tumbled more than 3% on demand concerns and after a tentative agreement that would avert a U.S. rail strike, as well as continued U.S. dollar strength with expectations for a large U.S. rate increase. read more  Economic data showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rebounded in August as Americans ramped up purchases of motor vehicles and dined out more while taking advantage of lower gasoline prices. But data for July was revised downward to show retail sales declining instead of flat as previously reported.  Separately the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell for the week ended Sept. 10 to the lowest level since the end of May. read more

Investors are widely expecting an aggressive rate hike after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week, but nervously awaiting hints from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about future policy moves, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial.  "The market remains choppy knowing that there's a Fed meeting next week. Even though participants agree that it'll be a 75 basis points rate hike, it's what the statement adds to previous commentary and what Chairman Powell says in his press conference" that have them worried, Krosby said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 173.07 points, or 0.56%, to 30,962.02; the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 44.69 points, or 1.13%, to 3,901.32 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 167.32 points, or 1.43%, to 11,552.36.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.96% while emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) lost 0.57%.  Stocks, bonds and currencies on Thursday were showing a market "increasingly understanding the Fed is going to hike more aggressively next week," said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina.  Referring particularly to the still strong labor market, Ladner said "economic numbers released today are tying a bow on the situation."

Treasury yields rose with the two-year hitting fresh 15-year highs, after data on retail sales and jobless claims showed a resilient economy that gives the Fed ample room to aggressively hike interest rates.  Also already signaling a recession warning the inverted yield curve - the gap between 2-year and 10-year treasury yields - widened further to -41.4 basis points, compared with -13.0 bps a week ago.

Benchmark 10-year notes were up 4.5 basis points to 3.457%, from 3.412% late on Wednesday. The 30-year bond last fell 5/32 in price to yield 3.4779%, from 3.469%. The 2-year note last fell 5/32 in price to yield 3.8646%, from 3.782%.

"In this vicious cycle where the data continues to remain resilient, that would imply a Fed that would likely stay the course and continue to tighten policy," said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale in New York.  Also clouding investors' moods on Thursday was the World Bank's assessment that the world may be edging toward a global recession as central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates to combat persistent inflation. read more

In currencies the dollar was slightly higher against the yen while the Swiss franc hit its strongest level against the euro since 2015. read more  The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.091%, with the euro up 0.18% to $0.9995.  The Japanese yen weakened 0.19% versus the greenback at 143.44 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.1469, down 0.57% on the day.

Before the tentative labor agreement, fears of a U.S. railroad worker strike had supported oil prices due to supply concerns on Wednesday. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said this week that oil demand growth would grind to a halt in the fourth quarter.  U.S. crude settled down 3.82% at $85.10 per barrel while Brent finished at $90.84, down 3.46% on the day.

Gold dropped to its lowest level since April 2021, hurt by elevated U.S. Treasury yields and a firm dollar, as bets of another hefty Fed rate hike eroded bullion's appeal.  Spot gold dropped 1.9% to $1,664.46 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 2.02% to $1,662.30 an ounce.