Wall St dips to lower close as rate hike bets firm, banks jump

This is why investing is so much fun. When I first saw today’s diving market numbers, I assumed the long-awaited bank reports did not have good news.  But quite the contrary, the big three banks beat expectations and further data showed industrial production and capacity utilization came in strong. So what’s the bad news? Well, the markets see it as confirming that the financial sector was not adversely impacted by recent bank failures and that showed vibrancy and resiliency.  

You can guess that it’s bad news because now the Fed can continue raising rates without fear of harm. In fact, Wednesday’s 70/30 odds of a ¼ point hike vs a pause went up dramatically today to 80/20.  The good news included Atlanta Fed prez saying that just one more ¼ point hike should do the trick.  Also the long-held forecast for a 5.2% decline in earnings was today adjusted to 4.8%. Volume remains exceedingly light at just under 10 billion. 

Fri April 14, 2023  4:24 PM

Wall St dips to lower close as rate hike bets firm, banks jump

By Stephen Culp

DJ: 34,029.69  +383.19       NAS: 12,166.27  +236.94       S&P: 4,146.22  +54.27     4/13

DJ: 33,886.47  -143.22        NAS: 12,123.47  -42.81          S&P: 4,137.64  -8.58        4/14

April 14 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended lower on Friday as a barrage of mixed economic data appeared to affirm another Federal Reserve interest rate hike, dampening investor enthusiasm after a series of big U.S. bank earnings launched first-quarter reporting season.  All three major U.S. stock indexes ended in the red, but well off session lows. On the heels of Thursday's robust rally, all three major U.S. stock indexes notched weekly gains.  "Today we're taking bit of a breather," said Sal Bruno, chief investment officer at IndexIQ in New York. "After yesterday's sharp move up, the market might have gotten a little ahead of itself."

Citigroup Inc (C.N), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) beat earnings expectations, benefiting from rising interest rates and easing fears of stress in the banking system.  "As expected, the bigger banks were probably not harmed that much by the regional banking turmoil, and possibly even beneficiaries of it," said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. "We saw mostly strong and healthy balance sheets, and it's pretty clear (the regional banking) crisis isn't systemic."  The S&P 500 banking sector (.SPXBK) jumped 3.5% and JPMorgan Chase surged 7.6%, its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 9, 2020.  Citigroup advanced 4.8% while Wells Fargo edged 0.1% lower.

But a slew of mixed economic data including retail sales, industrial production and consumer sentiment cemented expectations that the Fed will hike rates another 25 basis points at next month's policy meeting.  "Industrial production and capacity utilization came in stronger than expected," Bruno added. "Both point to an economy that still has some vibrancy, which gives Fed cover to continue its rate hike policy in May possibly into June."

Those expectations were underscored by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who said another 25 basis point hike could allow the Fed to end its tightening cycle, even as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called for the central bank to be prudent.  At last glance, financial markets have priced in a 74% likelihood of that happening, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 143.22 points, or 0.42%, to 33,886.47; the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 8.58 points, or 0.21%, at 4,137.64; and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 42.81 points, or 0.35%, to 12,123.47.  Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, seven ended the session lower, with real estate (.SPLRCR) falling most. Financials (.SPSY) enjoyed the biggest percentage jump, advancing 1.1%.

First-quarter earnings season hits full stride next week, with results expected from several high profile companies including Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Bank of America Corp (BAC.N), Netflix Inc (NFLX.O) and a long list of regional banks and industrials.  Analysts have lowered expectations, forecasting aggregate S&P 500 earnings having fallen by 4.8% from a year ago, a reversal of the 1.4% year-on-year gain seen at the beginning of the quarter, according to Refinitiv.

BlackRock Inc (BLK.N) rose 3.1% after the world's largest asset manager beat quarterly profit expectations.  Boeing Co (BA.N) slid 5.6% after the planemaker halted deliveries of some 737 MAXs due to a supplier quality problem attributed to Spirit AeroSystems (SPR.N), whose shares fell 20.7%.  Shares of Lucid Group Inc (LCID.O) dropped 6.3% following the luxury electric automaker's disappointing first-quarter production and delivery numbers.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 2.01-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.07-to-1 ratio favored decliners.  The S&P 500 posted 11 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 47 new highs and 205 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.98 billion shares, compared with the 11.31 billion average over the last 20 trading days.