S&P 500, Nasdaq boosted by chip rally, Fed rate cut signals

S&P 500, Nasdaq boosted by chip rally, Fed rate cut signals

By Chibuike Oguh

Wed July 31, 2024 5:53 PM

What Powell actually said today, “Policymakers discussed the case for cutting rates, but a strong majority agreed that now was not the appropriate time.”  What the market heard, “Listening to him speak, it’s clear that they’re all locked and loaded for a September rate cut.”  As they say, perception is everything and what the market perceived of today’s Fed comments shot the tech indexes through the roof, with its biggest daily percentage gain since February. 

(The Dow less so though even the Dow was up some 450 points as late as 3 pm, before crashing down to a fraction of that at close. No explanation for why the Dow came down so harshly in the final hour while tech remained consistently up all day.) I’m sure it also helped that U.S. payrolls today increased far less than expected indicating an easing in the labor market and bolstering the case for inflation lowering. For the month, tech indexes gained about ½% while the Dow gained 4.4, reflecting the rotation from tech to industrials that took place during July. Volume was right in line with the 4-week average at 13.3 billion. 

DJ: 40,743.66  +203.73      NAS: 17,147.42  -222.78      S&P: 5,436.42  -27.12   7/30

DJ: 40,842.79  +99.46        NAS: 17,599.40  +451.98     S&P: 5,522.30  +85.86  7/31

Wed 7-31-24 5:53 pm S&P 500, Nasdaq boosted by chip rally, Fed rate cut signals | Reuters  

Global stock index dips on earnings and Fed jitters

Global stock index dips on earnings and Fed jitters

By Sinéad Carew and Chris Prentice

Tue July 30, 2024 4:27 PM

Awaiting Q2 from Microsoft and AMD (due tomorrow) and Apple and Amazon later this week plus the Fed meeting tomorrow, today was one for hedging bets in case the news from these megacaps is not up to par.  Once again, a day ahead of the news, there was a flight to safety out of tech and back to industrials with the Dow gaining over 200 and the Nasdaq losing even more. Good Q2 is the hope but bad Q2 only feared as a momentary disappointment, with the Fed still expected to announce a September rate cut.  As today’s expert put it, “Ultimately we think the data will continue to show a much normalized labor market, if not weak, along with an inflation that is running in the Fed’s target zone.” Per the CBOE, volume came in at 11.3 billion, close to the 4-week average. 

DJ: 40,539.93  -49.41       NAS: 17,370.20  +12.32       S&P: 5,463.54  +4.44    7/29

DJ: 40,743.66  +203.73    NAS: 17,147.42  -222.78      S&P: 5,436.42  -27.12   7/30

Tue 7-30-24 4:55 pm S&P 500, Nasdaq stumble on caution ahead of tech earnings | Reuters

S&P 500 barely rises as investors await key results, jobs data, Fed meeting

S&P 500 barely rises as investors await key results, jobs data, Fed meeting

By Sinéad Carew and Ankika Biswas

Mon July 29, 2024 4:36 PM

There’s just a boatload of new data coming this week including more megacap Q2, the Fed meeting, and Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. So, everyone was understandably on the fence today with the indexes up and down like crazy but ending more or less flat. The Dow especially started the day down 200 before recovering to near break-even, the tech indexes the opposite, starting on a high before declining to near break-even.

The big question: will the mega-caps redeem themselves with good Q2 or will this recent rotation to small and mid-caps, in anticipation of the coming low-rate environment, prove to have legs?  The markets are hoping that on Wednesday the Fed will give a solid confirmation of a September rate cut.  With today’s “wait-and-see,” volume was below the 4-week average at 9.9 billion. 

DJ: 40,589.34  +654.27      NAS: 17,357.88  +176.16      S&P: 5,459.10  +59.88  7/26

DJ: 40,539.93  -49.41         NAS: 17,370.20  +12.32        S&P: 5,463.54  +4.44    7/29

Mon 7-29-24 4:36 pm S&P 500 barely rises as investors await key results, jobs data, Fed meeting | Reuters

US inflation data lifts global stocks, lowers Treasury yields

US inflation data lifts global stocks, lowers Treasury yields

By Chuck Mikolajczak

Fri July 26, 2024 5:07 PM

PCE came exactly as expected for both the month and the year and this shot up all three indexes right out the gate to very respectable gains, especially on the Dow. As today’s expert put it, “This is just another month of good inflation data from the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation,” and thus setting as a virtual certainty a September rate cut. There is still concern over the stability of the tech megacaps which accounted for continued rotation into undervalued industrials. But today the market seemed satisfied that the megacaps are beginning to stabilize. “The more recent trend is building on market’s confidence that we are on a trajectory that would get us to 2% over the long run.”  Per the CBOE, volume was 11 billion, a little below the 11.6 4-week average. 

DJ: 39,935.07  +81.20      NAS: 17,181.72  -160.69      S&P: 5,399.22  -27.91   7/25

DJ: 40,589.34  +654.27    NAS: 17,357.88  +176.16     S&P: 5,459.10  +59.88  7/26

 Fri 7-26-24 5:07 pm US inflation data lifts global stocks, lowers Treasury yields | Reuters  

S&P, Nasdaq end lower in fickle trading, megacap trend uncertain

S&P, Nasdaq end lower in fickle trading, megacap trend uncertain

By David French

Thu July 25, 2024 4:54 PM

The day got started with a bang with all the indexes on a constant incline until about 1 pm, possibly triggered by a very good GDP report showing a 2.8% growth in the economy vs a forecast of 2%, or nearly a whopping 30% above expectations. This was further bolstered by data showing inflation subsiding and sending the Dow up nearly 800 points. But then continuing concerns and anxiety over the stability of the megacaps triggered more allocations away from tech and into small cap industrials, and everything went crashing down all afternoon to erase most gains and put the tech indexes in the red. Friday’s PCE will cement further bets.  There was a whole lot of action today reflected in the considerably above average volume of 13.2 billion. 

DJ: 39,853.87  -504.22      NAS: 17,342.41  -654.94       S&P: 5,427.13  -128.61 7/24 

DJ: 39,935.07  +81.20       NAS: 17,181.72  -160.69       S&P: 5,399.22  -27.91   7/25

 Thu 7-25-24 4:54 pm S&P, Nasdaq end lower in fickle trading, megacap trend uncertain | Reuters  

S&P and Nasdaq close at multi-week lows as Tesla, Alphabet weigh heavily

S&P and Nasdaq close at multi-week lows as Tesla, Alphabet weigh heavily

By David French

Wed July 24, 2024 5:01 PM

It was a day of panic selling and a shot straight down right out the gate on disappointing Q2 reports from Tesla and Alphabet, something that should have been expected after Tesla reported such a huge drop in earnings yesterday. As the Magnificent Seven stocks have been keeping the rally going great guns based on their earnings matching the optimism, the first sign of earnings slippage was bound to cause a rather severe reaction and that’s what happened. The Nasdaq and S&P each had their worst days in 2 and 1-1/2 years respectively while the VIX came in at 18.04, its lowest in 3 months. Neither was the Dow spared, falling below that coveted 40,000 mark for the first time in two weeks. So let’s see how the other 5 Mag 7 do and whether they support the case for a growing market or increase the uncertainty.  Volume was above average at 12.94 billion. 

DJ: 40,358.09  -57.35       NAS: 17,997.35  -10.22      S&P: 5,555.74  -8.67     7/23

DJ: 39,853.87  -504.22     NAS: 17,342.41  -654.94    S&P: 5,427.13  -128.61 7/24

 Wed 7-24-24 5:01 pm S&P and Nasdaq close at multi-week lows as Tesla, Alphabet weigh heavily | Reuters  

World shares edge down, US yields fall as markets eye earnings, economic data

World shares edge down, US yields fall as markets eye earnings,

 economic data

By Chibuike Oguh

Tue July 23, 2024 4:41 PM

The markets took a breather today with the three indexes moving up and down several times during the session but ultimately closing near break-even modestly in the red. Alphabet came in better than expected but Tesla’s profits sank a whopping 45%. PCE is coming on Friday and, as today’s expert put it, “The market is in a show-me-the-money stage.” Sitting on the fence awaiting more data, volume came in below average at 10.6 billion. 

DJ: 40,415.44  +127.91      NAS: 18,007.57  +280.63      S&P: 5,564.41  +59.41  7/22

DJ: 40,358.09  -57.35         NAS: 17,997.35  -10.22         S&P: 5,555.74  -8.67     7/23

Tue 7-23-24 4:41 pm World shares edge down, US yields fall as markets eye earnings, economic data | Reuters

Wall St closes higher as investors return to megacap stocks

Wall St closes higher as investors return to megacap stocks

By David French

Mon July 22, 2024 4:43 PM

Except for a big dip on all three indexes between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m., during which time the Dow went from a +200 to zero (with no explanation in the article), it was a day when the flight from tech to small cap industrials ended and investors decided to start buying megacap techs with a vengeance again. Heavy hitters Google, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia all advanced 2-5% with the overall IT index advancing 2%. Part of the rally was unwinding bets on a Trump victory now that Biden has withdrawn.  Investors and economists have always seen a Trump victory as raising inflationary and fiscal risks. The betting site PredictIt has lowered bets on Trump’s chances by 4 cents (today at 60 cents) and increased Harris’ by 12 cents (at 39 cents.) Next up this week are Q2 reports from Alphabet and Tesla.  Volume remains below average at 10.95 billion. 

DJ: 40,287.53  -377.49      NAS: 17,726.94  -144.28      S&P: 5,505.00  -39.59   7/19

DJ: 40,415.44  +127.91     NAS: 18,007.57  +280.63      S&P: 5,564.41  +59.41  7/22

Mon 7-22-24 4:43 pm Wall St closes higher as investors return to megacap stocks | Reuters  

Wall St ends volatile session lower in aftermath of global tech outage

Wall St ends volatile session lower in aftermath of global tech outage

By Stephen Culp

Fri July 19, 2024 6:07 PM

Today’s historic enormous Microsoft tech glitch that brought down computers all over the world, including on Wall Street and throughout financial markets preventing buying, brought all the indexes down big time, the second day in a row for a big dive. But, as today’s expert put it, “It won’t have much of an overall impact. Some buying will be delayed. Because of the outage, investors are in wait-and-see mode.” Does this mean we can expect a correcting rally on Monday? 

But the outage didn’t do anything but add to all the uncertainty that’s been plaguing the market, with the VIX hitting its highest level since late April. The good news includes a good first week of Q2 reporting with 83% of 70 companies beating estimates and pushing Q2 earnings growth to 11.1% vs 10.6% July 1^st. The big boys start reporting next week.  Due to the outage, volume came in at 10.54 billion, below the 11.72 average.   

DJ: 40,665.02  -533.06      NAS: 17,871.22  -125.70      S&P: 5,544.59  -43.68   7/18

DJ: 40,287.53  -377.49      NAS: 17,726.94  -144.28      S&P: 5,505.00  -39.59   7/19

Fri 7-19-24 6:07 pm Wall St ends volatile session lower in aftermath of global tech outage | Reuters

Wall Street ends sharply lower as anxiety rises, earnings heat up

Wall Street ends sharply lower as anxiety rises, earnings heat up

By Stephen Culp

Thu July 18, 2024 4:26 PM

It was a major day of correction as after a brilliant rotation from megacaps and tech to small caps and the Dow, sending them to major records, all three indexes had investors cashing out their profits and all three into a major downward tailspin, especially the Dow coming down 533 but that’s not so bad considering the enormous 742 point gain on Tuesday. The Dow remains well above the historic 40,000 landmark.  The good news is jobless claims came in as expected further bolstering the case for rate cuts and Q2 reporting continues gathering steam.  Volume was a little above average at 12.14 billion. 

DJ: 41,198.08  +243.60     NAS: 17,996.93  -512.42       S&P: 5,588.27  -78.93   7/17

DJ: 40,665.02  -533.06      NAS: 17,871.22  -125.70       S&P: 5,544.59  -43.68   7/18

Thu 7-18-24 4:26 pm Wall Street ends sharply lower as anxiety rises, earnings heat up | Reuters  

Nasdaq, S&P 500 end sharply lower, hit by chips, megacaps; Dow extends rally

Nasdaq, S&P 500 end sharply lower, hit by chips, megacaps; Dow extends rally

By Stephen Culp

Wed July 17, 2024 7:27 PM

The Dow was on a straight shot up with another impressive 3-digit gain sending the index to its third straight record.  The Nasdaq and S&P were both on an even more impressive straight shot down with rather big 3-digit losses as blue chips continue to be seen as undervalued and thus has suddenly created this rotation out of tech. Today’s tech problems were triggered by news that Biden will impose trade restrictions on China, and that sent all the chip stocks down, the chip index registering its biggest loss in over 4 years.

But the rather good news was that industrial output rose by double the June forecast and the odds of a September rate cut today stand at 93.5% as the data all reaffirms the resiliency of an economy with inflation on a sustainable downward path, all of which will benefit the economically sensitive stocks. Anyway, the China news sent the whole tech index into freefall with corresponding slightly above average volume of 12.47 billion.   

DJ: 40,954.48  +742.76      NAS: 18,509.34  +36.77      S&P: 5,667.20  +35.98  7/16

DJ: 41,198.08  +243.60      NAS: 17,996.93  -512.42     S&P: 5,588.27  -78.93   7/17

Wed 7-17-24 7:27 pm Nasdaq, S&P 500 end sharply lower, hit by chips, megacaps; Dow extends rally | Reuters  

Dow notches record closing high, small caps surge on rate cut bets

Dow notches record closing high, small caps surge on rate cut bets

By Stephen Culp

Tue July 16, 2024 4:38 PM

DJ: 40,211 .72  +210.82     NAS: 18,472.57  +74.12      S&P: 5,631.22  +15.87  7/15

DJ:  40,954.48  +742.76     NAS: 18,509.34  +36.77      S&P: 5,667.20  +35.98  7/16

It was a straight shot up for everyone but the Nasdaq with so much good news regarding a September rate cut (now odds at 100%), strong retail sales indicating a resilient economy, and strong earnings have caused investors to rotate from the huge megacaps to the small caps in the Dow which are most likely to benefit from a rate cut. The Dow surged huge, up 742 points as did the S&P, but leading the Dow to a record close. The value-oriented Dow has been ignored due to the craze in tech but now is considered under-valued and thus the huge buying spree.  Volume was slightly above the 4-week average at 11.83 billion. 

Tue 7-16-24 4:38 pm Dow notches record closing high, small caps surge on rate cut bets | Reuters  

Wall St ends higher as investors firm bets on Trump win, rate cuts

Wall St ends higher as investors firm bets on Trump win, rate cuts

By Stephen Culp

Mon July 15, 2024 4:26 PM

DJ: 40,000.90  +247.15     NAS: 18,398.45  +115.04       S&P: 5,615.35  +30.81  7/12

DJ: 40,211 .72  +210.82    NAS: 18,472.57  +74.12         S&P: 5,631.22  +15.87  7/15

Since the weekend’s events and Trump’s subsequent boost in the polls, investors have become more comfortable with a Trump 2^nd term with the hopes of more tax cuts and less regulation and put the odds of a Trump victory at 67% (vs 60% last week) and a mere 26% for Biden per online betting site PredictIt. (Have no idea how reputable PredictIt is.) 

Anyway, there was another rally today to build more on Friday’s, with a September rate cut now considered a virtual certainty. It was however another seesaw today with the indexes up and down all day. The Dow reached a high of +351 before declining, the Nasdaq a high of +241, the S&P +50, all around the noon hour before declining.  The exuberance was only in the morning and then quickly died off.  Volume still remains below the 4-week average at 11.07 billion. 

Mon 7-15-24 4:26 pm Wall St ends higher as investors firm bets on Trump win, rate cuts | Reuters  

 

Wall Street closes higher on bets for Fed rate cut

Wall Street closes higher on bets for Fed rate cut

By Noel Randewich and Medha Singh

Fri July 12, 2024 4:27 PM

This is one of the reasons the market is always so fascinating. You just never know what’s going to happen. Yesterday, there was a big sell off despite much increased optimism for rate cuts, but on the consensus that though the rate cuts should have been good news, it was taken that tech had already gone as high as it would so everyone rotated into industrials. Today, the consensus was the opposite with everyone buying tech, especially Tesla, like crazy on a second day of exuberance over a September rate cut, today with odds jumping to 94% vs 78% a week ago.

Both the Dow and S&P reached intraday records around 2 pm, the Dow gaining almost 500 points, before both declining, the Dow closing at a plus 247. Even the Nasdaq was up almost 300 at 2 pm before also declining. Still, it was considered a positive sign that investors continued rotating into the Dow and the forecast for Q2 earnings growth has shot up to 9.6%. Volume was close to average at 11.3 billion. 

DJ: 39,753.75  +32.39       NAS: 18,283.41  -364.04       S&P: 5,584.54  -49.37   7/11

DJ: 40,000.90  +247.15     NAS: 18,398.45  +115.04       S&P: 5,615.35  +30.81  7/12  

Fri 7-12-24 4:27 pm Wall Street closes higher on bets for Fed rate cut | Reuters 

Nasdaq ends sharply lower as investors rotate out of Big Tech

Nasdaq ends sharply lower as investors rotate out of Big Tech

By Noel Randewich and Lisa Pauline Mattackal

Thu July 11, 2024 4:26 PM

The CPI came in quite well today, showing an unexpected drop in prices and the smallest annual increase in a year, strongly bolstering the case for a September rate cut which is now considered a virtual certainty at 90% odds vs 74% yesterday. That should have very much excited the markets but instead resulted in a consensus that tech had gone as high as it’s going to and it was time to sell off and rotate back into industrials, with the Dow up over 150 in the morning before declining and settling for a more modest 32 point gain at close. Thus it was a straight path down for both the S&P and Nasdaq, which took a heavy 3-digit loss and broke the long 7 day and 6 day record breaking winning streaks for both the Nasdaq and S&P respectively. Trading was heavy and for a change above the 4-week average at 12.6 billion. 

DJ: 39,721.36  +429.39      NAS: 18,647.45  +218.16      S&P: 5,633.91  +56.93  7/10

DJ: 39,753.75  +32.39        NAS: 18,283.41  -364.04       S&P: 5,584.54  -49.37   7/11

Thu 7-11-24 4:26 pm Nasdaq ends sharply lower as investors rotate out of Big Tech | Reuters  

Nvidia leads Nasdaq and S&P 500 to record high closes

Nvidia leads Nasdaq and S&P 500 to record high closes

By Noel Randewich and Ankika Biswas

Wed July 10, 2024 4:13 PM

The day started near flat for all the indexes but then immediately went upward for the entire session closing with hefty 3-digit gains all around, the seventh straight record for the Nasdaq and sixth for the S&P as it crossed the 5,600 mark for the first time. The trigger was the double whammy of Taiwan Semiconductor posting a strong Q2 (which also strongly boosted Nvidia and the rest of tech) and Powell’s remarks today that he had “some confidence” that inflation was moving sustainably down.

The whole tech index surged 2.4%.  The big inflation data (CPI and PPI) is coming Friday, along with the first of the big bank Q2, but confidence is strong enough to warrant this rally and to put the odds of a September rate cut up to 74% today vs 70 yesterday vs 45 last month. But awaiting the coming reports, volume remains light at 10 billion vs an 11.5 average. 

 

DJ: 39,291.97  -52.82       NAS: 18,429.29  +25.55       S&P: 5,576.98  +4.13    7/9

DJ: 39,721.36  +429.39    NAS: 18,647.45  +218.16     S&P: 5,633.91  +56.93  7/10

Wed 7-10-24 4:13 pm Nvidia leads Nasdaq and S&P 500 to record high closes | Reuters  

S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch record highs as Nvidia gains

S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch record highs as Nvidia gains

By Noel Randewich and Lisa Pauline Mattackal

Tue July 9, 2024 4:26 PM

The S&P and Nasdaq both started the day with substantial highs, the Nasdaq up over 100 points, but then both steadily declining to lose most of their gains by close. The Dow was back and forth between red and black all day, down some 200 in the morning, up 150 at 1 pm, then down again in the red at close. Given today’s good news, the decline is a mystery and no explanation is given. Rather the emphasis today was on Powell’s remarks that the economy is no longer overheated and if the inflation data continues as is, that will strengthen the case for rate cuts. That sent Nvidia and the rest of tech up and, even though the closing gains were modest, it was still Nasdaq’s 6^th straight record and the S&P’s 5^th. 

As today’s expert put it, “The U.S. economy and currently the U.S. labor market have been surprisingly resilient throughout the course of 2024.  We should continue to expect moderate growth through the balance of this year and into next.”  Today’s comments were also enough to strengthen the odds of two cuts this year, with a September cut now at 72%. More inflation reports coming later this week including CPI and PPI as well as big bank Q2 reporting starting Friday. There is still considerable fence sitting as noted in the continuing light volume of only 9.6 billion vs an 11.6 average. 

DJ: 39,344.79  -31.08        NAS: 18,403.74  +50.98       S&P: 5,572.85  +5.66    7/8

DJ: 39,291.97  -52.82         NAS: 8,429.29   +25.55        S&P: 5,576.98  +4.13    7/9

Tue 7-9-24 4:26 pm S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch record highs as Nvidia gains | Reuters  

S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch record highs; chipmakers climb

S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch record highs; chipmakers climb

By Noel Randewich and Ankika Biswas

Mon July 8, 2024 4:26 PM

Still riding the wave of optimism from last week’s positive inflation data but also sitting on the fence awaiting new inflation data and Fed comments, the S&P and Dow both started the day on a high, the Dow up over 250 points, but quickly declined to end almost flat with the S&P and mildly in the red for the Dow.  The Nasdaq had a better day, though very choppy, but ended with its 5^th consecutive record high (the S&P its 4^th) on a persisting wager on a September rate cut, now with 75% odds vs last week’s 60.  Q2 earnings growth are estimated at 10.1%, up from 8.2 in Q1.  Volume remains light at 10.1 billion vs a 4-week average of 11.6 billion. 

DJ: 39,375.87  +67.87       NAS: 18,352.76  +164.46      S&P: 5,567.19  +30.17  7/5

DJ: 39,344.79  -31.08        NAS: 18,403.74  +50.98        S&P: 5,572.85  +5.66    7/8

Mon 7-8-24 4:26 pm S&P 500 and Nasdaq notch record highs; chipmakers climb | Reuters  

Nasdaq, S&P 500 hit record highs as payrolls data raises rate cut hopes

Nasdaq, S&P 500 hit record highs as payrolls data raises rate cut hopes

By Saeed Azhar , Ankika Biswas and Lisa Pauline Mattackal

July 5, 2024 5:48 PM 

It was a triple whammy of good inflation news with job growth slowing, unemployment at a 2-1/2 year high, and wage gains slowing, all leading to dramatically increased optimism for a September rate cut, today’s odds at 79% vs 66% on Wednesday, as well as increased expectations for a cut in December. Of course, this zoomed up the rate sensitive tech sector sending the S&P and Nasdaq once again to new records and 1.95% and 3.5% weekly gains respectively. Industrials as expected went the other way spending much of the day in the red, the Dow down some 140 points in the morning, but steadily recovering to a 67 gain by close.  Q2 reporting starts next week with the big banks. For the shortened holiday week, volume remained quite thin at 9.73 billion. 

DJ: 39,308.00  -23.85        NAS: 18,188.30  +159.54     S&P: 5,537.02  +28.01  7/3

DJ: 39,375.87  +67.87       NAS: 18,352.76  +164.46     S&P: 5,567.19  +30.17  7/5

 Fri 7-5-24 5:48 pm Nasdaq, S&P 500 hit record highs as payrolls data raises rate cut hopes | Reuters  

Introducing AAII’s Essential Investing Course on Vimeo

Okay, it turns out I was wrong about no video for the AAII Essential Investing (EI) course.  I just received the link to it.  And though I believe it is still just a teaser for selling a considerably more expensive course (in fact, a series of courses), but I thought I'd pass on this one-hour intro webinar so you could all make up your own minds.  Just a hint though ... this is either the second or third time that they have extended the $200 (regular $400) promotional price.  

Introducing AAII’s Essential Investing Course on Vimeo  

S&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs as data stokes hope for rate cut

S&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs as data stokes hope for rate cut

By Ankika Biswas , Lisa Pauline Mattackal and Saeed Azhar

Wed July 3, 2024 3:21 PM

ISM and PMI both came in weaker than expected while unemployment claims came in stronger, all good news on the inflation front and further boosting optimism on rate cuts. Since potential rate cuts are good news for tech, tech took off with both the S&P and Nasdaq on a continuous and bountiful upward trajectory all day to record closes. And as tech usually goes, the traditional Dow goes the opposite spending almost all day in the red reaching a low of a minus 100 by noon before recovering to a much more modest closing loss as investors rotated out of industrials and into tech. Fed minutes and the payrolls report, both on Friday, will tell an even bigger story.  The market closed early at 1 pm today ahead of Independence Day so volume was the thinnest yet for the week at a mere 7.1 billion. 

DJ: 39,331.85  +162.33       NAS: 18,028.76  +149.46        S&P: 5,509.01  +33.92     7/2

DJ: 39,308.00  -23.85      NAS: 18,188.3  +159.54      S&P: 5,537.02  +28.01  7/3

Wed 7-3-24 3:21 pm S&P 500, Nasdaq post record closing highs as data stokes hope for rate cut | Reuters  

Shares edge higher, US Treasury yields weaken as markets weigh Fed chair comments

Shares edge higher, US Treasury yields weaken as markets weigh Fed chair comments

By Chibuike Oguh

Tue July 2, 2024 4:39 PM

All three indexes were more or less flat until about 1 pm, then zoomed up to close with 3-digit gains. Job openings rose slightly above expectations suggesting a stable job market, but not enough to move the needle. And though Powell’s comments today (likely made around 1 pm) stuck to the Fed’s guns about needing more data before cutting rates, the market today took these comments as suddenly dovish and even “laying the groundwork for cuts maybe in September.”  A lot more data coming Wednesday and Friday. Per the CBOE, volume came in at 10.1 billion, still quite thin but in line with holiday week trading. 

DJ: 39,169.52  +50.66        NAS: 17,879.30  +146.70        S&P: 5,475.09  +14.61     7/1

DJ: 39,331.85  +162.33      NAS: 18,028.76  +149.46        S&P: 5,509.01  +33.92     7/2

Tue 7-2-24 4:39 pm Shares edge higher, US Treasury yields weaken as markets weigh Fed chair comments | Reuters

Apple, Tesla lifts stocks to higher close in light pre-holiday trading

Apple, Tesla lifts stocks to higher close in light pre-holiday trading

By Saeed Azhar, Ankika Biswas and Lisa Pauline Mattackal

Mon July 1, 2024 4:33 PM

Both the Dow and S&P started on a high, the Dow up some 320 points, and then both declined almost immediately to be in the red by 11 a.m.  The Nasdaq started in the red, then gained all day.  The Dow stayed near zero all day to close up modestly, the S&P regained its losses to close at a modest gain.  Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Tesla were the main drivers in tech today. Manufacturing contracted for a third straight month with prices dropping to a six month low, all good signs for inflation and the market sticking with its bets for 2 rate cuts. There is a whole slew of employment and productivity reports due later this week. Due to the holiday, trading was thin at 10.6 billion. 

DJ: 39,118.86  -45.20         NAS: 17,732.60  -126.08        S&P: 5,460.48  -22.39      6/28

DJ: 39,169.52  +50.66        NAS: 17,879.30  +146.70       S&P: 5,475.09  +14.61     7/1

Mon 7-1-24 4:33 pm Apple, Tesla lifts stocks to higher close in light pre-holiday trading | Reuters