Feeble finish to a tempestuous quarter on Wall Street

Today was the day when portfolio managers decided that the rally of the past three days since Yellen's reassuring comments about interest rates had run its course and thus began a very modest selloff sending the Dow down an equally modest 31 points.  There was neither good news nor bad news so the consensus seems to be to sit on the gains made during the last seven weeks, which pulled the market out of correction and into the black for the first time in 2016.  Jobless claims were a bit up but still within solid range of a healthy labor market.  Now all eyes are on tomorrow's non-farm payrolls which will give a clearer picture of the economy.  But volume will likely remain subdued (6.8 vs a 7.7 billion average) until Q1 earnings start next month, which again are expected to be substantially dented.  At this time the forecast is for a 7% drop in profits.  Do I hear an echo?  This happened all four quarters of 2015 and was proven false each time.  Not only was there no dip last year but each quarter even saw a modest increase, not bad considering it was supposed to be a bath.  My guess is the same thing will happen this time around.

Wall Street plows higher as anxiety falls to seven-month low

One more day for investors to digest Janet Yellen's remarks yesterday left them feeling more optimistic yet and pushed the Dow up another 83 points.  Correlated to this was a dip in the VIX "fear guage" sending it down nearly another 2 percent to its lowest levels since before the August crisis with China.  All the indexes got a boost today but volume, at 6.6 billion (below the 7.8 billion average) indicates there's still a good deal of caution in the mix.

Wall Street hits 2016 high after Yellen delivers

It was yet another day when all the scared rabbits in the crowd were hedging their bets against bad news from the Fed, thus driving the Dow down a hundred points right out the gate.  Then you saw it happening like magic -- right around noon, as Yellen was telling the world that, contrary to fears incited earlier, the Fed would continue to exercise caution in the wake of global uncertainty (exactly what the world wanted to hear) that the Dow went soaring ... and kept soaring until close, bringing the Dow up 97 points for the session.  So if all the hedgers weren't being such nervous Nellies, the index would have been up almost 200 points.  Yesterday, it was reported the S&P was almost in the black for the year after a very bad winter.  As of today, it is officially now back in the black, all this despite an additional 2.5 percent drop in crude.  Because of the "good news" on interest rates, banking stocks like BofA were the ones to take the hit, down one percent.  Trading overall got a little bit back to normal today with 7.0 billion against a one-month average of 7.8 billion shares.

Wall Street ends flat after choppy session

Yes, the market ended relatively flat (the Dow up a modest 20 points) but choppy?  Yes, it dropped about 20 points right out the gate before going through ebbs and flows to gain another hundred points by 2 pm and then falling in again to close modestly up.  But since so many are out on break and volume was thus demonstrably thin at 5.1 billion, none of it really means much.  Oil is once again below $40/barrel and February consumer spending remained staid, which is either good (maybe the Fed will be more cautious about the interest rates) or bad (the recovery is stalling.)  All of the above means that Yellen's speech tomorrow in New York will be closely watched.  Just let's not forget that the S&P has now almost completely recovered from a very bad start to the year.  It's just that investors are not yet completely convinced that it's going to stay that way.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 3.25.16 (plus Masters In Business)

Hope everyone is enjoying their Easter/spring break.  I for one am free for two weeks since everyone I have meetings with is on break, two weeks that I'll be spending doing a lot of writing.  Meanwhile, here's the succinct summation I deliver every week at this time.  And the bonus this Sunday is a one-hour podcast by Slate's Helaine Olen in which she gives quite sage advice on why we should NOT be listening to MOST financial advisors, particularly the ones on TV and cable.  The hint in the opening narrative is that she socks it to the celebrity advisors like Suze Orman, which is fine by me.  I always thought one should be suspicious of these television gurus for, if they really knew what they were talking about, why would they be giving it away on television?  If you're one of the many who are on break this week, enjoy!

10 Weekend Reads

Submitted for your consideration, Ritholtz's latest reading list fresh off the presses.  The one that's got my curiosity is the Boston Globe story about the origins of ISIS.  Why do I suspect some major surprises there?  Wishing everyone a wonderful Easter.

10 Weekend Reads 3/26/16 - The Big Picture

The Golden Age of Astrophysics

The markets are closed for Good Friday so, in my usual tradition, I am borrowing words of wisdom from the indomitable Barry Ritholtz.  It would take someone of his genius to think enough outside the box to be able to draw a lesson from astrophysics on investing, and validating his undying optimism about our future ... but he does!  Enjoy and have a great Easter weekend!

The Golden Age of Astrophysics - The Big Picture