Thursday, March 31, 2016

Feeble finish to a tempestuous quarter on Wall Street

Today was the day when portfolio managers decided that the rally of the past three days since Yellen's reassuring comments about interest rates had run its course and thus began a very modest selloff sending the Dow down an equally modest 31 points.  There was neither good news nor bad news so the consensus seems to be to sit on the gains made during the last seven weeks, which pulled the market out of correction and into the black for the first time in 2016.  Jobless claims were a bit up but still within solid range of a healthy labor market.  Now all eyes are on tomorrow's non-farm payrolls which will give a clearer picture of the economy.  But volume will likely remain subdued (6.8 vs a 7.7 billion average) until Q1 earnings start next month, which again are expected to be substantially dented.  At this time the forecast is for a 7% drop in profits.  Do I hear an echo?  This happened all four quarters of 2015 and was proven false each time.  Not only was there no dip last year but each quarter even saw a modest increase, not bad considering it was supposed to be a bath.  My guess is the same thing will happen this time around.

Markets | Thu Mar 31, 2016 5:47pm EDT

Feeble finish to a tempestuous quarter on Wall Street


DJ: 17,685.09  -31.57       NAS: 4,969.85  +0.55        S&P:  2,059.74  -4.21  

(Reuters)  Wall Street ended the first quarter with a whimper on Thursday after a seven-week rally that rescued the S&P 500 from its worst start to a year since 2009.  Angst about a troubled global economy drove a steep selloff in stocks in January, before a rebound in oil prices cleared the way for the S&P's 13-percent recovery since mid-February that has left the index up 0.8 percent for 2016.
But Thursday's trading was languid, with S&P and the Dow Jones industrial average dipping after three days of gains, even as some fund managers snapped up stocks at the end of March and the quarter.
Data on Thursday showed U.S. jobless claims rose unexpectedly last week but remained well below the 300,000 mark, denoting a healthy labor market.
Critical U.S. non-farm payrolls data will be in sharp focus on Friday and provide investors a clearer reading on the economy.
"The job number looks like it's going to be positive on Friday, so you'll get a little uptake there," said Phil Blancato, head of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management in New York.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI ended 0.18 percent lower at 17,685.09 points and the S&P 500 .SPX lost 0.2 percent to 2,059.74.  The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC edged up 0.01 percent to 4,869.85.  So far in 2016, the Dow has gained 1.5 percent and the Nasdaq is down 2.7 percent.
On Thursday, nine of the 10 major S&P sectors were lower, with a 0.88 percent decline in the materials sector SPLRCM weighing most.
Investors' nerves were soothed this week by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's comments that the central bank should be cautious about raising interest rates.
Wall Street is also concerned about tepid corporate earnings and will keep a close eye on the quarterly reports that start rolling in next month.
Analysts expect S&P 500 companies' first-quarter earnings to fall 7 percent year over year, with energy companies weighing heavily.
Shares of Best Buy (BBY.N) added 2.76 percent after Barclays initiated coverage of the stock with an "overweight" rating.
Even though the S&P ended lower for the day, advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by 1,665 to 1,356. On the Nasdaq, 1,444 issues fell and 1,397 advanced.
The S&P 500 index showed 40 new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 53 new highs and 21 new lows.

About 6.8 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, below the 7.7 billion daily average for the past 20 trading days, according to Thomson Reuters data.

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