Mario Giannini on the Art of Investing

Now here's something that's really spooky for Halloween.  From today's posting on Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture blog, I give you a one-hour podcast on everything you need to know about the Art of Investing from the CEO of the private equity firm Hamilton Lane, a firm overseeing $500 billion in privately invested assets. So let's see what a guy with this kind of a track record has to say. There's a blue moon out there right now so there's no better time to listen to it.  Enjoy!  

Tech slide hits Wall Street as coronavirus cases spiral

What a wild ride today with the Dow down 700 points at times but recovering in the last hour to recover all but 157. Lately it’s been the triple threat of stimulus-COVID-election. Today add a fourth threat – overbought tech!  That’s what happened today. It’s been reported since the start of the pandemic that tech is a safe haven since demand for it has grown with everyone stuck at home. Today the market decided that the whole sector is overvalued and about to be repriced; thus Apple, Facebook and Amazon all took a hit today. And it doesn’t help matters that today the infection rate passed the 9 million mark and the VIX hit a 20-week high, up from 15 weeks yesterday. The S&P has now fallen 9.7% from its September high and Apple reported its steepest drop in iPhone sales in two years. The bright spot remains Q3. At the halfway mark 86.2% of companies have beaten estimates and the profits forecast has again been upgraded, today to a 10.3% reduction versus Wednesday’s 14.8 percent.  Nerves continue to be frayed so volume is once again way above average at 10.3 billion as everyone sells as a hedge against possible bad news on Tuesday.  

Wall Street rebounds as market eyes tech results, strong U.S. data

The market was looking ever so desperately for some signs of hope today and found enough to boost it 139 points as good economic reports calmed jitters about coronavirus. The economy grew at a record pace in Q3 (but of course, it started at rock bottom), unemployment claims fell and tech giants Amazon and Alphabet had good Q3 revenue supporting the notion that tech companies have benefited from people being stuck at home during the pandemic. But nerves are still frayed as reflected in the VIX surging to a 15 week high. At least volume has returned to a normal average of 9.7 billion versus yesterday’s enormous 11 billion. 

Wall Street sinks 3%, Dow at late July lows as pandemic surges

Nope!  The markets are not quite ready to calm down yet, not with this perfect trifecta of no stimulus, coronavirus spiraling, and election uncertainty. They were hoping Monday was the worst of it but, truly, it’s just going to keep going until the election is settled. And the chances of it being settled before next Friday are slim. The short-sellers are going to make out on this one. Twelve states have set hospitalization records, Germany and France are going into another lockdown, and as today’s expert says, “Obviously the virus is out of control.”  The Dow was going down all day, down almost 700 by 3:30, then dove more than 200 more points in the final half hour due to concerns that there will be no declared winner come Tuesday night, adding to worries that the election might be contested, for a long while now considered the worst-cast scenario.  Even tech lost today. The good news:  Q3 continues to go better than expected and today was upgraded again from a 16.2% loss yesterday to a 14.8% loss today.  Volume, which has been running below average for some time now was way above average today at 11 billion. Yes! Everyone’s nervous! 

S&P 500, Dow slip on worries about earnings, U.S. stimulus outlook

It was another sell off today, again by the combo of lack of stimulus, rising coronavirus, and election uncertainty, but at least today not nearly as severe as yesterday with the Dow losing 222 points and tech even leading the Nasdaq to a gain of 72 points. The fear gauge rose to its highest level in nearly two months on election jitters, mainly due to some battleground states getting closer to a draw.  The Q3 earnings forecast has again been revised upwards to now a 16.2% loss.  Volume was 8.2 billion, again below the 4-week average as more investors stay on the sidelines awaiting more positive news and less uncertainty. 

Wall Street closes down on soaring virus cases, U.S. stimulus worries

It’s the same old story – the fall of stimulus and the rise of COVID-19, except that today investors took it a lot more seriously and drove all three indexes down, the Dow a whopping 650 points. In a word used by today’s expert, investors are “unnerved.” The good news is that all the uncertainty is keeping everyone on the sidelines so volume remains on the light side at 8.7 billion as it has been as reflected in the 4-week average of 8.9 billion.  The fear gauge is at a 7 week high but with Q3 heading into its busiest week, 139 S&P companies have reported with 83% beating estimates. 

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.23.20 (plus Biden’s and Trump’s Tax Plans)

Below is the usual weekly summation, the main positives being that stimulus talks continue and jobless claims fell.  As usual, the main negative is the continuing rapid spikes in COVID cases, particularly in rural areas.  The bonus this Sunday night is a very good article from this week's Barron's explaining in detail the similarities and differences between the two candidates' tax plans.  Hope everyone got through the chilly and wet weekend.