S&P 500 dips, Nasdaq higher after data shows moderate inflation rise

S&P 500 dips, Nasdaq higher after data shows moderate inflation rise

By Chuck Mikolajczak and Shashwat Chauhan

Wed September 30, 2026  

The Dow took another big drubbing right out the gate but both tech indexes started in very positive territory, the S&P up over 50 points before noon before gradually declining, the Nasdaq up over 400 most of the day before a precipitous decline in the final half hour. What triggered all these great gains was a PCE report coming in well below the forecast, indicating inflation coming down and beating the odds on an October rate hike. The latter started the day at 70% and was cut in half by close. Q2 GDP was also upwardly revised to 2.2% suggesting that the economy is handily absorbing these hikes.  

Stocks dip, 2-year US yield falls after Fed's Williams cools rate hike bets

Stocks dip, 2-year US yield falls after Fed's Williams cools rate hike bets

By Caroline Valetkevitch

Tue September 28, 2026  

As is often the case with the market, things happened today that should have triggered a rally but instead sparked an enormous slump. With the NY Fed prez citing no compelling reasons for another rate hike and the 2-year yield falling, stocks should have gone up. But at least the decline was much worse earlier in the day and most losses were recovered. By noon the Dow was down some 350, the S&P down 30. The afternoon saw a gradual recovery but all three still ended in the red. The comments from the NY prez brought the odds of an October hike down to 50% from 70% this morning.  

Stocks fall; oil prices off highs amid renewed hopes for Middle East negotiations

Stocks fall; oil prices off highs amid renewed hopes for Middle East negotiations

By Caroline Valetkevitch and Amanda Cooper

Mon September 27, 2026  

Friday’s euphoria over progress in the peace talks was short-lived as even that optimism was not enough to overcome the continuing rising oil prices, Treasury yields reaching highs not seen in decades, and now 70% odds of an October rate hike. Thus, the indexes took another big 3-digit plunge today right out the gate and stayed there. The 30-year yield is now at its highest in 22 years, the 10-year in 19 years.  

Wall Street ends higher as investors buy AI stocks; Microsoft rallies

Wall Street ends higher as investors buy AI stocks; Microsoft rallies

By Noel Randewich and Johann M Cherian

Fri September 25, 2026  

For a second day the indexes enjoyed a rising trend with the news of a deal reportedly in progress to phase in the Strait of Hormuz and phase out the U.S. economic and port blockades and maybe the war itself. This news very much bolstered the whole tech sector again with resurgent evidence that investors are putting AI on the front burner again with deals being done and AI expenditures boosting demand for capital goods.  

S&P 500 ends marginally lower as investors focus on US-Iran war

S&P 500 ends marginally lower as investors focus on US-Iran war

By Noel Randewich and Johann M Cherian

Thu September 24, 2026  

Wow, what a rollercoaster today as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia once again pushed up the price of oil to $107/barrel, also continuing to push up the 30-year yield which today reached a 22-year high. All three indexes were way down in the morning, the Dow plunging nearly 400 by noon with the other indexes following suit. Then right around the noon hour, everything shot right back up again almost instantly as Reuters reported that a deal was in the works for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and for phasing out Trump’s blockades of Iran.  

Wall Street ends down as oil prices, Treasury yields rise

Wall Street ends down as oil prices, Treasury yields rise

By Noel Randewich

Wed September 23, 2026  

Iran’s president fired back at Trump hard at the UN vowing “never surrender” and immediately sent price of oil soaring again, the 10-year Treasury going above 5% again, the highest since 2007 (and now flirting with the dreaded 6%), Nvidia dropping 1.5% and the chip index itself 1.2%. Clearly, the market wants an end to this war. Clearly, the market isn’t going to get it.  

Nasdaq sets record high, oil dips on improved crude flows

Nasdaq sets record high, oil dips on improved crude flows

By Karen Brettell

Tue September 21, 2026  

The AI relief train continued running today as demand “showed no signs of abating and corporate earnings stayed resilient.” This combined with oil flows from Saudi Arabia increasing and the 10-year yields decreasing sent the Nasdaq to another triple-digit gain and another record. There was also hope when Iran said it could open the Strait of Hormuz in as little as a week but this was conditional on Trump backing off and who knows if that will happen.  

Nasdaq notches record-high close, AI optimism reignites and Treasury yields retreat

Nasdaq notches record-high close, AI optimism reignites and Treasury yields retreat

By Noel Randewich and Johann M Cherian

Mon September 21, 2026  

After last week’s drubbing, the markets went into high gear today with the price of crude dropping below the psychologically important $100/barrel mark and yields dropping below the psychologically important 5% mark. The Nasdaq marked its first record since its all-time high June 2^nd and the S&P closed within a whisper of its August 13^th record. New data suggesting that AI spending is expanding despite recent warnings sent tech way up.  

S&P 500, Nasdaq advance, turning the page on a tumultuous week

S&P 500, Nasdaq advance, turning the page on a tumultuous week

By Stephen Culp and Niket Nishant

Fri September 18, 2026  

It was certainly a very volatile day as all three indexes dipped well into the red in the morning, the Dow down almost 300 by 12:30, then all three began a rebound with the Dow recapturing most but not all of its losses by close, but tech actually making it a bit into the black. The Nasdaq especially gained over 100 as investors continue to digest inflation data and the first Fed rate hike in years while trying to determine the next steps. What likely helped tech was the Chinese serving as an intermediary with Iran to try to stop the attacks on Saudi Arabia and its oil routes.  

Tech leads Wall St to higher close as oil eases, Treasury yields dip

Tech leads Wall St to higher close as oil eases, Treasury yields dip

By Stephen Culp and Tharuniyaa Lakshmi

Thu September 17, 2026  

Yesterday’s news of the Saudis sending oil through Oman helped ease fears of a deepening fuel shortage which brought crude down and subsequent Treasury yields. And because of the slaughter the markets have recently endured, there was some bargain hunting going on too, all which combined for massive 3-digit gains all around which began right out the gate and stayed there steadily all day. As one might also guess, the recent panic in equities has translated to gold and silver mining stocks being the outperformers, advancing more than 3%.  

Wall St ends lower after Fed hikes interest rates, sees more tightening ahead

Wall St ends lower after Fed hikes interest rates, sees more tightening ahead

By Stephen Culp and Tharuniyaa Lakshmi

Wed September 16, 2026  

Robust retail sales provided a bit of a lift to all the indexes this morning and that combined with Saudi Arabia allowing tankers through via Oman kept everything steady. It had the desired effect on the price of crude which dropped 3% and also brought the chip index up 0.6%.  Then at 2 pm, everything dropped like a rock as it was likely at 2 pm that the Fed announced the first rate hike in more than three years along with the announcement that this would be only one of several more coming.  

Wall Street ends lower as oil spikes and the benchmark Treasury yield breaches 5%

Wall Street ends lower as oil spikes and the benchmark Treasury yield breaches 5%

By Stephen Culp and Tharuniyaa Lakshmi

Tue September 15, 2026  

Yesterday was a straight shot down rout in the morning followed by a 50% recovery in the afternoon. Today it was just straight down right out the gate and stayed there all day, 3-digit losses all around. Today’s expert pointed out three problems – “Given rising prices for fuel, especially diesel, given the near-certain outlook for rising rates beginning tomorrow, and given the concerns over the potential slowdown in the AI ecosphere, why step into the market aggressively until some of this clears up?” Indeed, the odds of a rate hike tomorrow are now at 95% vs 33% a few weeks ago.  

Stocks fall as oil and bond yields rise

Stocks fall as oil and bond yields rise

By Amanda Cooper and Chibuike Oguh

Mon September 13, 2026  

With the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz only deepening, oil shot up another 1% today bringing the total increase over the past week to 10%. Diesel is breaking records being far higher than before the war and sending bond yields higher still, making a direct hit on consumer pocketbooks. But the really big problem is all the AI uncertainty, especially with several CEOs this weekend warning of the perils of AI, that we’re spending too much, moving too quickly. Since investors have been so nervous of late over AI overspending, you’d think these comments would be greeted with glee but instead drove the whole tech sector down. The Nasdaq was down around 350 in the morning but recovered more than half of that by close. Same was true of the Dow, down some 300 by 11 a.m. but recovering half by close.  

S&P 500 ends higher as strong inflation data cements rate-hike bets

S&P 500 ends higher as strong inflation data cements rate-hike bets

By Noel Randewich

Fri September 11, 2026  

CPI data came in today showing a strong increase in prices reinforcing the high inflation scenario. After the selloff following the PPI data earlier that showed inflation hadn’t fallen, you would think that this strong inflation report would have caused another massive selloff. Instead, the opposite happened. All three indexes shot way up right out the gate and stayed up steadily all day long. It seems that it wasn’t the fear of a rate hike that had investors rattled, it was the uncertainty of whether there would a rate hike. Today the market decided that a rate hike next week is now inevitable with the odds climbing to a staggering 90% vs 70 yesterday and 49 a week ago.  

S&P 500 ends down as Treasury yields rise and traders fret about inflation

S&P 500 ends down as Treasury yields rise and traders fret about inflation

By Noel Randewich and Niket Nishant

Thu September 10, 2026  

The war continues to escalate and the indexes continue to plummet for the fourth straight day as the usual concerns about rate hikes, inflation, and the spiraling cost of oil stubbornly dominate. Treasury yields are at years-long highs which is a pronounced negative for stocks which means the cost of borrowing to carry on business keeps getting higher. PPI today came in as expected and that combined with oil hitting $107/barrel vs $100 just yesterday has stoked fears of rate hikes this month for which the odds have catapulted to 70%. 

S&P 500 ends down as oil tops $100 per barrel

S&P 500 ends down as oil tops $100 per barrel

By Noel Randewich and Tharuniyaa Lakshmi

Wed September 9, 2026  

The war further ramping up stoking long-held fears of a broader regional conflict and pushing oil over the feared $100 mark sent all the indexes once again seriously plunging for a third straight session. The 10-year note climbed to its highest in nearly 3 years when the government offered to buy $6B worth vs an expectation of $8-$10B.  This no-risk money has made stocks that much less attractive.  

S&P 500 falls as AI worries hit software makers

S&P 500 falls as AI worries hit software makers

By Noel Randewich and Niket Nishant

Tue September 8, 2026  

The pendulum has swung back again with three major software makers declining about 5% each which has raised the old concerns about whether AI can compete with software services. That combined with the continuing attacks in the war and a growing skepticism that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is temporary sent all the indexes way down. The Nasdaq did recover somewhat after a blistering morning but the Dow and S&P were just straight down and by a substantial amount.  

Wall Street ends lower as solid jobs data fuels hawkish Fed bets

Wall Street ends lower as solid jobs data fuels hawkish Fed bets

By Stephen Culp and Niket Nishant

Fri September 4, 2026  

The jobs forecast was for 56,000 new jobs so when the report came in nearly triple that amount, it sent the markets into another panic over an overheated economy and new reasons for a rate hike. As today’s expert put it, “It’s hard not to think that an improving labor market is not good news for the economy, but the odds of a Fed rate hike increased a little bit as the economy continues to run a little on the hot side.”  

Wall Street ends sharply higher as Waller remarks ease rate hike fears

Wall Street ends sharply higher as Waller remarks ease rate hike fears

By Stephen Culp and Niket Nishant

Thu September 3, 2026  

It appears that Fed official Waller must have made his comments concerning keeping rates steady this month right around 10:30 a.m. which triggered an enormous jump in all three indexes until 11:30 a.m. at which point they remained steady for the remainder of the session. Waller’s comments really should not have moved the needle at all since all he really said was that IF the coming data shows inflation on the decline, THEN he would vote to keep rates steady, which of course has been his position and that of the entire Fed all along. It was not news and certainly no commitment to hold rates steady.

Wall St ends higher as stocks reclaim some shine

Wall St ends higher as stocks reclaim some shine

By Stephen Culp and Niket Nishant

Wed September 2, 2026

After two days of major routs there was a lot of bargain hunting going on today as investors searched for overlooked and undervalued companies which triggered a major leap in all three indexes all morning. The chip index, which has fallen nearly 25% in the last two months, has been making a comeback with AI stars Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron and Qualcomm leading the charge. But today’s expert is quite a lot more optimistic than recent sentiment has shown. “The war is continuing longer than anyone hoped and when it ends energy will cool and inflation will not be as much of an issue.”

Wall Street ends lower as higher yields, rising oil prices mark shaky start to September

Wall Street ends lower as higher yields, rising oil prices mark shaky start to September

By Stephen Culp and Niket Nishant

Tue September 1, 2026

It was another great rout today as escalating hostilities in the war since Friday have further dampened any prospects for an end to the crisis and as oil continues to spike, inflation concerns deepen. The consensus grows closer every day to a September rate hike, today the odds at 68.2% vs 65 yesterday and 39.6 a week ago. The day was awash with bad news from climbing Treasury yields after hitting a 19-month high yesterday to a slowing job market and factory activity losing momentum, all triggered by uncertainties created by the war.